Bitcoin Forum

One of my personal assumptions is that Satoshi was orientating himself on gold. If you calculate how many standard bars could be forged from the total amount of gold on earth, you come up with around 20 - 23 million standard bars, depending on the source of information.

Of course, this is only if you add in the estimated unmined gold reserves.

To think further, if you own one Bitcoin and it exceeds the market capitalization of gold, just to give you an idea, it's like owning a 12.4 kg gold bar.

EDIT:
(after numerous feedback)
Thanks for your inputs! I missed the fact that my theory only works with todays data. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/how-much-gold (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/how-much-gold)
It was difficult for me to find a specific source for the estimated unmined gold reserves back in 2000-2008 but it will be less than today. Minus about 50,000 tons which were mined since 2005. So when we redo the calculation with my guessed data from back then, we get way less than 21 million standard bars.
I apologize for the "primitive" expression of my thoughts and also for my incorrect wording. Of course i did not meant, that Satoshi included this as a main reason, why there are 21 million.
I did not give a direct source because, as has already been noted, there are various estimates and I therefore did not consider it necessary. Very unprofessional of me!

It's an idea I've been pursuing for a while, as I see it as an interesting way of relating the amount of Bitcoin to an already proven natural resource. This could illustrate to critics (who claim Bitcoin is far too expensive and too less in circulation) that the 21 million Bitcoin could be the 21 million "standard bars", and for trading in the smaller market, the smaller units.

Just for illustration:
1 BTC as 1 standard bar of gold (12.4 kg as held by banks today)
1000 sats could then correspond to 0.124 g of gold.

This in turn shows how nicely Bitcoin can be divided up in contrast to gold. It was important for me to share this thought as it allows Bitcoin to be visualized in a natural way if someone cannot yet grasp whether it is made for this world.

You are wrong. Satoshi did not take any calculation from standard gold bar that can exist. After 2009, many gold reserves have been detected. Some countries that do not know they have more gold later detected that they have more gold. Also that any country can detect  gold reserve at any time. There are more gold that is existing that will be mined than those that have ever been detected.

OP would have graciously given us the source of his information and a proper analysis of his assumptions would have helped us to understand this thread. I am also confused about how he was able to know how many bars of gold would be gotten from the total amount of gold the earth has. Gold is a natural resource that cannot easily be quantified because there are always discoveries.  I read a report where 31 million tons of gold ore, from which an estimated 320,158 tons was discovered in Uganda in 2022. However, an estimate by the World Gold Council puts the figure at nearly 244,000 tonnes. 197,000 tonnes have currently been mined, while 57,000 tonnes are still unmined.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/index/gold/how-much-gold-is-there-in-the-world/
https://energycapitalpower.com/5-biggest-gold-discoveries-africa-2022/

 

I don't buy into this theory about bitcoin being connected to gold.  Satoshi was an unconventional thinker - he invented a whole new decentralized digital money, not trying to copy existing assets.  The cap of 21 million bitcoins might just be an estimate, not some deep metaphor.  In emails, Satoshi called it "an educated guess" and  the number could simply reflect tech limits needs for division, or personal choice.

Not to be rude but I think your personal assumption isn't correct. It's strange to see someone comparing gold bars with Bitcoin total supply and that's somehow awkward if you ask me. I suggest you to do deeper research before making such assumptions.

Bitcoin supply is always limited to 21 Million and Gold bars will increase overtime when miner continue to mine more gold. We still aren't aware about many Gold mines which exist on this Earth so it would be foolish to assume that there will always be such amount even in future.

OP, from where did you get this idea from because it does not look real. This is because gold is a natural resources endowed by nature, and as time passes by, there will be more gold to discover in various places. It is until the world has come to an end, that human do not exist anymore, that no one will be able to discover the rest gold, because there are a lot of gold that has not been discovered.

Bitcoin was created by a man, and it is limited to only 21 million, which means that by 2140, when that last bitcoin will be mined, mining of bitcoin will no longer be possible. So why are you comparing these two as the same when we know that it is not true, and can never be possible. Are you saying that Satoshi is one Demigod that knows even the the things beneath the earth surface?

I am pretty sure Satoshi didn't think about gold when he intended to create Bitcoin. His main focus was on a decentralised currency that could be transferred worldwide without any third-party involvement. I often see many people compare Bitcoin with gold, which is unrealistic. You can't compare a virtual currency with a physical element. We don't know why Satoshi limits Bitcoin mining to 21 million, but it has to be limited somewhere. So what's the reason behind 21M? Only he knows very well. It's not necessary to get an idea from Gold. 

How can you compare the supply limit of Bitcoin that satoshi decided to start with while with the rest of it remained unmined to gold that has a measurement in metric tons? You're saying about the standard bars and these are all melted and converted into bars, how can you know that? You can't prove that matter but I understand that this theory of yours is going to make sense only if you've got some proof of it.

But it will be a good idea to give us some idea first on how you've ended up with this theory. Just for the sake of the argument and something to talk about since Bitcoin has always been considered the new and modern digital gold, it's always part of the discussion to compare bitcoin and gold but not to this point about the supply because both of them are scarce and hard to mine.

And the advantage with that, you don't need a huge storage and don't need to carry its weight because of how heavy it is.

Well we know that bitcoin is often dubbed or considered as digital gold. It would make sense if satoshi was inspired by the number of gold in earth but you must be forgetting that bitcoin was launched in 2009 and was probably planned way before. The number of gold mined and number of gold produced back in 2009 is not the same amount of gold mined and produced today.

Every day, scientists and geologists discover something new. They might have not known the amount of gold left back in 2009 on earth but today they might have some kind of estimation. Time constantly changes a lot. Just like  back then, gold was the pinnacle of investment but now bitcoin is.

We never know why Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin with 21 million as its total supply cap.

There are some theories but at the end we are not Satoshi Nakamoto to know about his / their actual reasons.

How is the 21 million Bitcoin cap defined and enforced? (https://blog.lopp.net/how-is-the-21-million-bitcoin-cap-defined-and-enforced/)
Why is Bitcoin supply limit sets to 21 milions? (https://decrypt.co/34876/why-is-bitcoins-supply-limit-set-to-21-million)
Can Bitcoin's hard cap of 21 millions be changed? (https://river.com/learn/can-bitcoins-hard-cap-of-21-million-be-changed)

I think that's just you speaking OP, I don't believe that Satoshi has ever said in his whitepaper or in his accounts in this forum that he based that number on how much gold bars there are when it comes to the number, I think that it's just an arbitrary thing that has something to do with time constraints because 21 million already takes about a 100+ years to mine and even though Satoshi didn't have the goal of making bitcoin as an investment, he probably considered having a cap in the supply so there's not a possibility that it will become worthless.

Bitcoin can not compared how many standard gold bars cause I'm reality the creator of Bitcoin Wich is Satoshi Nakamoto he didn't base on gold bars and maybe he didn't care about it. All he aim is Bitcoin a crypto currency not a gold bars.  But if we have see the estimated kls in One Bitcointalk then like what you said OP maybe around  12kls of gold and then imagine if you have own 10billion bitcoins then if you swap it in hold maybe one of your House will full of  bar golds.

There's no such inspired by standard gold bars or something else, it's purely by math. Don't make something that can be proven by math into assumption or personal opinion, that's misleading.

Owning one Bitcoin isn't necessary means you own 12.4 kg gold bar, Bitcoin is an intangible asset.

https://imgvb.com/images/2024/02/24/8180a9cbd0c3189ec4da9290372ece94.png
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/what-if-money-printed-went-straight-to-bitcoin

No gold has been mentioned while he create bitcoin only those people who invest on bitcoin compare it to gold since for some of them bitcoin is digital gold that is good investment choice to take. But actually there's no basis about any other claim nor comparing it to gold since bitcoin is unique on its own way.

To many people got hype about bitcoin that's why there are so many comparison released but not all of it is really worth to take our attention since much better for us to spend our time to research more about bitcoin and how we can take advantage on the available opportunities that present to us.

If we have extra funds for investment then its better to take gold for alternative since this asset is also good investment choice to have by investors.

I don't think that the 21 million Bitcoins are related in any way to the amount of Gold in the world.

My guess is the following:

Satoshi had to make a design for Bitcoin that made it future proof, even in case Bitcoin would be used worldwide by many people. So the total amount of units are 21 million Bitcoins, with 100 million Satoshies per Bitcoin. These are plenty of units, in case they are needed to satisfy demand.

Why now 21 million  Bitcoins?

Maybe he just liked the number 21 for some reason, like his girlfriend was 21 or so...or something similar.

And 21 is 3 x 7 .  7 is a popular number in the West:

"As an early prime number in the series of positive integers, the number seven has greatly symbolic associations in religion, mythology, superstition and philosophy. The seven Classical planets resulted in seven being the number of days in a week.[1] 7 is often considered lucky in Western culture and is often seen as highly symbolic."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7

The similarity of the numbers does not mean that the theory is correct, as you cannot support your argument with anything logical to accept it as a theory. You can support your theory with quotes from Satoshi, but they will all be a matter of speculation and there is nothing to actually support them.

Quote from Satoshi



The most acceptable explanation is the Fibonacci sequence 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and the number is not 21, but 20999999.9769 BTC.

When I see that number, I feel that I should have add more to make it into a whole number instead of having that .9769 BTC which I think Satoshi also did that and that's why the maximum supply is 21 million BTC. Well, there's nothing to support my claim but it's what I think and my opinion why it is 21 million instead of 20999999.9769 BTC. I also believe that it is not based on how many gold bars that are mined already.

I don't want to say you are wrong about Satoshi orienting himself towards gold because based on reading about the origin of Bitcoin, it was created to provide convenience amidst the decline in people's trust in fiat currency which occurred due to the economic crisis.

Read the Bitcoin white paper to understand Bitcoin and explore other sources to find out why Bitcoin was created. That's it in a nutshell.
Unlimited gold. Bitcoin is limited to the amount you mentioned (21 million).

Satoshi Nakamoto wanted to create a currency, electronic currency that can help people to save their assets against inflation from fiat currencies. People call Bitcoin as digital gold too but I am not sure Satoshi Nakamoto has ever written that he wanted to make Bitcoin as a digital gold.

This is very accurate. Gold is unlimited, just not mined all gold on Earth. Bitcoin is limited, only has 21 million bitcoins and there are already 19.6 million bitcoins (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) exist from Bitcoin mining since 2009.

Did Satoshi choose 21 million as the cap, or did he just choose 50 blocks every 10 minute as starting reward, and halvening it every 4 years results in 21 million? Because if it's the latter, then 21 million is just an arbitrary number that is a result of another arbitrary number. But even in the first case it could be that 21 million is just an arbitrary number too.

Bitcoin isn't expensive, you don't have to buy the whole coins, instead, buy the fractions. People say Bitcoin is expensive because they want to get rich quick, that's why they choose a coin that the price is below than $1, whenever the price hit $1, they will earn 10x or mores.

Bitcoin circulation is big, there are many people trade Bitcoin everyday. The circulation is less because most of the coins are stored in centralized exchanges, that's why when people are trade in DEX or real P2P, it's lack of volume.

At least the Bitcoin created by Satoshi is proof that humans who are willing to use their advanced minds for noble purposes will always be remembered and are proof that the mind can redeem the horizon.

If we don't know and are not sure whether Satoshi ever wrote that he wanted to turn Bitcoin into digital gold, then put this curiosity aside and continue searching with the easy access to the information space that we currently have. That's my concept of learning something.
I also haven't found any reading about Satoshi ever writing it.

Hmm, well I don't think so there's nothing wrong with commenting on a person's view, the concept of 21 million Bitcoin and the supply of Gold in the bars comparison is ridiculous and at the same time we should acknowledge the fact that gold has no supply limit if you keep mining gold it will keep flowing into the market as unlimited supply.

I highly agree with you, there's no limit on gold's supply and year after year we may see more gold bars. So comparing gold bards supply with that of Bitcoin doesn't make sense to me, and it's some kind of strange comparison.

The things which separate gold supply from Bitcoin's supply is the limit. Bitcoin is limited in supply, there will be total of 21 million Bitcoin ever but gold's supply continue increasing. Another thing we should keep in mind that Satoshi Nakamoto never said anything like that. In fact now that Satoshi and Martti Malmi e-mails are leaked, here's why Satoshi decided to make Bitcoin supply only 21 Million.

He just pointed out his views about why bitcoin should have a limit instead of been unpredictable like the gold and just like you many people calculated the limit from the block reward which started from 50bitcoins per block and then halved every 210000 which was also estimated to be every four years so through the calculations until the block reward turns to zero the total bitcoin that would have been mined will be 20999999.9769 and many People Just approximate it for comfortability to the the 21 million everyone refers today, but will never be that definite number.

If 21 million would be a deliberate choice, it would have been 21,000,000.00000000 exactly. It's not. The slightly less than 21 million is the result of halvenings.

I think it is very interesting revelation

You shared some great resources to explain Bitcoin total supply that is 21 million bitcoins or more exactly, it is 20999999.9769 bitcoins [1].
It is coded by Satoshi Nakamoto with only 5 lines of code. [2]

The blog post from Jameson Lopp explains it in more details.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBbwFw3WEAUfk5Y?format=png&name=900x900 (https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1447608372065357828)

[1] Bitcoin's Controlled supply (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply).
[2] How is the 21 million Bitcoin cap defined and enforced? (https://blog.lopp.net/how-is-the-21-million-bitcoin-cap-defined-and-enforced/)

There are approximately 187,000 million kilograms of gold available all over the world ( there's a probability of this piece of information being wrong). So, even if you were just assuming, broo .. you're still wrong. It's quite sad, everyone is saying the same thing, that you're wrong of course, really wanted to see if there would be a little fact in what you wrote down.

And honestly, if we're looking for facts in what you've written down, then I'd say that Satoshi created an alternative to money just like hold is an alternative to money. And about the fact that they're both assets, yes, that's true. They also have a few other similarities but the quantity of Bitcoin relating to gold is off the radar.