Bitcoin Forum

Recently, there have been alot of discussions around bitcoin halving and what the expectations will be as regards to the value of bitcoin, and is no longer News that bitcoin reached the blockseize for halving cycle over the last 24 hours, and significantly speaking there have not been any sign of bitcoin price increase which is not expected anytime soon.
Main purpose for this thread is to set the record straight for newbies
Never get is twisted bitcoin halving is not an auto mode for bitcoin price increase and no one should expect anything out of the ordinary for bitcoin just because the network just recorded it new blockseize rewards, although bitcoin halving have always been speculated to birth new all time high, but it is not 100% certain that we must achieve such ATH each time there is a halving cycle, at least reading through history have proven that already.
My advice
Don't buy bitcoin because you assume that bitcoin price will skyrocket after bitcoin halving, that is a wrong mentality that could lead to depressing results if that failed to happen.

What history are you talking about? Bitcoin's block reward has been halved four times so far. Each time, there's an ATH that follows. It isn't instant. I mean, it doesn't immediately follow the halving date. The impact of the decrease in the new supply will take time before it finally affects the price fully. So far, it takes at least a year from the halving for an ATH to be reached. The halving had just taken place. So there's no history to prove that an ATH after the halving is a false hope or a wrong expectation. I'm still convinced that there's going to be a new ATH more or less a year from now. But of course it is wrong to assume that since it happened in the past it will happen again in the future.

Current fees are so high that the effect of halving has not yet appeared. In the last 200 blocks, the average subsidy + fees per block was about 4-6 bitcoins, while in the past it was 7-8 bitcoins.

I think we need to wait until mempool dump and fees decreases to start saying that Bitcoin halving has started and then we have to wait several months to see its actual effect.

Aside this fact this year halving is different from the previous halving since it a new ATH even before the halving and normally we do expect a bear before the bull but it was a different case because the bull this year is really too strong, since people sentiment is still positive.

Though I will advise leverage traders to avoid this since the market probably can go side ways and we heard news about how much was liquidated during the recent dip

Some "experts" say that, since the bull is really strong this year as you said, we should discount a part of the increase. Let's don't forget that big funds like BlackRock have been buying for several months many more Bitcoins that those which were mined, with the positive pressure in the price that it means, probably higher than halving's.

Skyrocket after the halving is unrealistic but grow up gradually after the halving is realistic thinking.

It's good if any person buys bitcoin with own money before a halving and holds it to get profit for some time like several months after the halving. I consider it is a very good investment strategy and the vital point is invest with own money.

If investment is from loan, it is no longer good.
If buying bitcoin and using it with leverages for margin tradings, futures tradings, it is no longer good.

It would be very naive to think that immediately after the halving, the growth of Bitcoin will reach new records, and I would like to believe that newcomers understand this. But I think it’s also wrong to dissuade people from buying. We cannot predict what will happen to the price; however, most have positive expectations for Bitcoin prices to rise, and if we talk about people coming with investments in Bitcoin at this time, they need to remove the illusion of getting rich quickly for at least a year or two.

If I remember correctly, the fee after the halving block was around 1200 sat/vb and I don't think I have ever seen fees like that. Compared to that time, the fees getting reduced again and the current fee is around 120 sat/vb. I hope that will go down to the 20 sat/vb in the coming weeks. What I didn't get is, why the fees have been increased even though the number of transactions wasn't like the lat time.

I remember seeing 500K transactions on the mempool and yet we paid 100 sat/vb. But during the halving block time, there were around 225K transactions, and yet the fee was over 1000 sat/vb. We have 222K pending transactions right now and the current fee is 120 sat/vb. I always thoughts the fee increase with the number of pending transactions and how much someone pays for the transactions. I guess it's because all the new transactions was coming with high fees. No?

Let me ask you a question (or a question to anyone here):  what's the reason for the price increase after a halving?  Why do people think another ATH, a bull run, or just a boost in price is guaranteed after a halving?  I really want to know, because there's nothing I can see that would basically give everyone free money just for investing in bitcoin before one.  That sounds insane to me.

Well you'd be surprised to note that some or most have a misguided understanding about the halving process especially as there has been much talk about how there will be a big bump during the event. Many of them will use this medium to purchase as much as they can so they'd benefit hugely but with how it's price is shaky, are more disappointed than the next person. It looks easier said than done. I don't think anyone wants to be dissuaded, it's just that some may feel inclined to wait for a positive movement in price rather than take advantage of the  unsteadiness now. I'm more optimistic that things will look up for Bitcoin now more than ever.

Hashrate and difficulty increase > making miners harder to mine Bitcoin > the price to mine Bitcoin rise > Bitcoin price increase.

Another reason, halving event happen every four years, so it makes people will discuss about Bitcoin and people might buy Bitcoin > Bitcoin price increase.

Yeah there are no free money after halving, it just many people are too naive, just like people who say Bitcoin price increase due to Elon Musk tweeting Bitcoin logo.

Past Bitcoin halving events have indeed been associated with price increases, but they should also know that this doesn't happen immediately because there's a process to go through, such as adjustment, and of course, it's not a guaranteed outcome. The relationship between halving and price is complex and influenced by various factors beyond just the reduction in block rewards. Because if these newcomers expect an automatic price surge right away, it will only lead to disappointment if it's not met. If they have a short-term perspective, they should study trading if they want to do it daily. But if they're focusing on investment, they should go for the long-term.

I am very well convinced also that we are going to see a new all time high after each halving,, at least at some point in the future, but many others have failed in the timing for expectations of that ATH after halving, because I have read Al t of comments that sounds as if  bitcoin halving is an automatic trigger to a new bitcoin price run up, which assumptions I am trying to clear off in this thread.
Before bitcoin record a new all time high after halving, takes time at least things needed to settle in such as network congestion, increased fees and the general market conditions,all this take time and for sure we need patience to wait and not to be in a rush to see that happening outrightly as many assume.

It's only newbies without experience or who haven't researched on how halving works will assume that after halving, price will begin to surge and we'll see an instant ATH. This is my first halving, but I've been here for quite a while to know that from other halving experiences that we should be looking at the seeing a new ATH in approximately one year's time. Although anything is possible because from the experience of previous halvings, ATH happens after them, but we saw a new ATH before the present halving, and I won't rule any possibilities out about seeing the peak of bull run in this year.

From history, the halving only trigger the bull run, due to limited supply, and it is not done immediately. It takes few months before we can start seeing the rise in price of bitcoin and a year for bitcoin price to hit a new ATH, but it might not take up to a year in this circle before bitcoin hits a new ATH, because this circle is different from other, due to ETF approval. However, anyone investing should hope not for quick profit but rather invest in a long term so that you don't need to worry about the price of bitcoin.

Basing on the history of Bitcoin's price after the halving event, it's price has increased or at least doubled.

I don't know what's your point with your advice but if you will look at the price history of Bitcoin in the past halving events, the price of it increases. I mean it isn't instant, but in 12-18 months, it has increased significantly. I don't know why you are advising it to newbies where in fact, they can just buy Bitcoin, and just sell at the peak of the bull market. History shows that the bull market is happening months after the halving event.

It might be a wrong mentality but TBH, it works especially for those who don't want to hold Bitcoin for a very long time. Depressing results? Nah, I don't think so as long as you don't buy at the peak or near it's peak. What's more depressing is that, you bought at the bottom and you decided not to sell it at the peak for some stupid reasons (like what I did on 2021 :D).

Seriously, everyone is buying because of the anticipation that after the halving the price of Bitcoin is going to skyrocket.

There's nothing wrong with that. But it takes time and now we're done with the halving, everyone is on the waiting game.

Well it depends on ones belief. Not because its quite high now doesnt mean it would go to a higher position. Would you blame too those who bought now and seen bitcoin at higher price? Its always good to buy back on a lower range but what if it doesnt go down that much still a guy believes it would be much higher later on? I really doubt to see bitcoin on lower grounds anytime sooner but a more of vice versa assumption too that it will move and have a price discovery.

Interesting perspective! It's crucial to manage expectations when it comes to events like Bitcoin halving. I'm curious, though: what other factors might influence Bitcoin's value aside from halving cycles? And how can newcomers navigate the market with realistic expectations?

Offcourse we all have to build that long term mindset towards bitcoin if we don't want to lose because when you have a speculative mindset towards bitcoin and you give it a short term base it will always results into building negative mindset around you towards bitcoin.


I have not experienced bitcoin halving before but note that only mining rewards alone is not enough to push the value higher at a very short term, this is the reason we give five to six years bitcoin goals that way you can be sure to have experience at least one bitcoin halving cycle to understand how the effects works on bitcoin price.

Nope!

Hashrate and difficulty increase > making miners harder to mine Bitcoin > miners with too costly operation shut down > difficulty decreases till equilibrium point.
That's why old-time miners like Phil consider shutting down after this.

The price dictates the hashrate!
If hashrate would dictate the price then all we would have to do is each of us buying 1 ASIC, raise the hashrate to 10 times what it is now so the price would also 10x.
Of course, it doesn't work like that!


So by saying this, you're assuming that the price will go down from this point on?

Anyone who buys bitcoin with the believe that it will skyrocket during or after the halving is making a wrong speculation, after all we are not yet in the bull run and for the fact that a new ATH was created before the halving also sends a big signals for anyone who wants to invest in Bitcoin to be very careful when making investments for short interval except they do that for the long term.

Well, personally the halving event for me is just a step that happens every 4 years, but it doesnt guarantee an immediate price increase or free money when you are a new investor. There are few factors which can contribute to pump the price movement in the long term. Historically, every time this event arrives, we see another ATH level reached.

Some of these factors, I would say are the change in supply and demand dynamics, which reduces the rate of new mined Bitcoins resulting in a decrease in the rate of supply. So, if the demand remains constant or increases, the reduced supply can lead to creating pressure on the price. In Bitcoin, when we see the price is stable the chart will show or go momentum in the long term always.

After all, it’s not something we can't predict. The only valid reason for Bitcoin price to pump is if the pressure of buying increases, regardless of what events or news are coming as long as they are considered positive.

Those who waited this far for halving before buying are already late to the party. Anyone who was already here a few months ago, should've known this. Hype for halving is often high but that doesn't translate to immediate price spike. However, it will eventually lead to a peak and a new ATH once the law of demand and supply come into play, that will all know. It takes a few months after halving for that to happen. Anyway, for those rushing to buy Bitcoin with the aim of a mouth watering ROI; they better look elsewhere into viable alts because Bitcoin has passed its prime where it turned a few dollars into millions. It's never going to happen again.

I mean in theory it should increase its market price because it would affect the supply of Bitcoin in the market lowering its reward in the network, a lot of newbies for sure are going to think that it is a great opportunity for a profit because on the Bitcoin halving it is going to be a huge increase in the market price, but its actually the opposite, In my opinion, the hype of the halving is gonna spike before the halving began that is when we see it reaches the all-time high in the past month, that is I think the time we see the effect of the Bitcoin halving hype. On the day of having a lot of traders are going to get FOMO investing then they are going to realize that the market is not gonna spike that easily because there will be a huge delay in the market before we can see the effect of the halving in the market.

I learned it the hard way, I invested a lot and held for a long time last Bitcoin halved and even though it was a profit already I held thinking that the market price was just gonna continue until the halving, If I was just going for the long term investment it might be worth it anyway but I ended up selling at wrong timing it might still be a profit though but wasn't a great decision if you're going to ask me.

The best thing to do here is always go for the long-term investment because you are not going to lose money if you are not going to sell it at an unfair price in the market as long as you hold there will be a chance of it to increases especially on Bitcoin because it's the number one cryptocurrency it's the safest investment that you could make on cryptocurrency.

The misconception that many newcomers have about bitcoin halving is that immediately after the halving will be bull run. There will be bull run but might not happen immediately after but after several months. Don't be surprised that the main bull run will happen in 2025.

It will be appreciated if you can edit your post and delete the part that said that it is proven that not all halving is accompanied by a new ATH. It is a wrong statement.

I still buy because it was in the correction phase and I hold because I believe it will skyrocket after a few months. Maybe my mentality is wrong but seeing the previous halvings, we never see it pumping instantly but gradually. It can be the same trend we experience this time and while the price is low, why not stop buying if we can afford to do that?

It really just matters in the situation, we can hold either if there is no new ATH. Currently, at $66,700, it is a good chance to take and even reaching ti $80k before the end of this year is not regretting anymore but a good profit.

There must be more than one reason for the price increase after the halving. The logical would be that the flow of new supply has decreased 50%. That's a big deal. But it must also be a self-fulfilling prophecy to a certain extent. That everybody is expecting the price to increase after the halving makes it a reality.

However, my point is that as far as history is concerned, there's an ATH after the halving. There have been 4 halvings so far. I'm not saying an ATH will always be reached after the halving. That's not automatic. But it's wrong to say that there may not be an ATH as "history have proven that already." There has yet to be a history to prove that an ATH may not happen after the halving.