Bitcoin Forum

Here we go again!  ;D

This new project will dynamicaly adjust the miners dependant on power available from solar.
The demonstration solar system when finished will have 50kw of solar panels, 40kw of inverters and 100kwh of battery storage.
We will only mine during the day and morning/evening using some of the battery but battery will be used mostly to smooth solar power during cloud conditions.
I plan to run 10 Antminer s19j mostly in low power mode at around 2200 watts each.
The system is located in Texas.

I have 10kw of solar and 11.4kw inverter already installed.
Still working on the 24kwh battery .
Another 40kw of panels are on site but I need to build out the mounts.

6 of the 10 Antminers in stock

Next step after the battery is to start up one Miner and develop a Python control script for,

Dynamic Miner Control

Adjustable Power Settings: The Antminer S19j supports different operational modes that can adjust power consumption and hashrate. We will utilize these settings to match the miners' power usage with available solar energy.


Response to Solar Output: Implement a system where miners ramp up or down based on real-time solar production and battery charge levels. This will ensure optimal use of available power without overloading the system.

I have done profitability calcs on this minus the Solar equipment because most of it was already bought and paid for years ago but I'll get to that later.

It seems what makes this feasible today is that you can buy S19 machines cheap.

The reason for all this?
If it works we plan to build out a total Off-Grid Mining Farm in West Texas.

I realize that these asics are very cheap now, but the problem is that the profit is very low and it's dropping every day.
Large companies are constantly buying modern asics, and your profit will fall every day. I am sure that with such equipment you will have problems with ROI.
https://www.asicminervalue.com/miners/bitmain/antminer-s19j-90th

According to that S19j @  $300 will ROI in 75 days if mining 24/7 but since I'm only mining 1/3 of the day its more like 225 days.
How long will an $4000 S21 take to ROI and how many S19 can I buy for $4000?


I'm looking at this from a totally different angle.

Also this is more of a, can it be done project, I'm not expecting to get rich but if it can make profit I know I'm on to something interesting.

Interesting.. but with discrepancy on the goals.
Computing ROI with the mining equipment alone will surely return with positive result no matter how long it will be.
(use any of the famous mining calculators online like whattomine (https://whattomine.com/asic) with 0$/kWh electricity cost)
No one can predict the future so calculators can only calculate with the current profitability.

However, regardless of your result, you still need to include the additional cost of your off-grid solar system to ROI since the end goal is to build an off-grid farm.
Or is everything already paid just like the additional 40kW panels you have now?

I think you're counting the payback incorrectly. You only count the cost of asics, but do not count the cost of investment in solar panels and equipment.
In 225 days you will have recouped your investment in the asics, but what value will those asics have in 225 days?
As an option for gaining experience it's a good idea, but investing in such equipment is definitely not about business.

Let's compare ROI if electricity is of minimal concern, as it would be with a paid off solar power plant.
We can go into ROI's starting from scratch of a new buildout later.

I think the maths are good  :P

Comparing ROI of Older vs. Newer Equipment

Equipment Specifications

Antminer S19j+
Hash Rate: 95 TH/s
Power Consumption: 3,250 W
Price per Miner: $300


Antminer S21
Hash Rate: 200 TH/s
Power Consumption: 3,500 W
Price per Miner: $4,000

Proportion of Network Hash Rate

S19j+ Proportion:
Proportion = (95 × 10¹² H/s) ÷ (663 × 10¹⁸ H/s) ≈ 1.432 × 10⁻⁷

S21 Proportion:
Proportion = (200 × 10¹² H/s) ÷ (663 × 10¹⁸ H/s) ≈ 3.016 × 10⁻⁷

Expected BTC per Miner per Day For 24-Hour Operation:

S19j+:
Expected BTC/day = 450.72 BTC × 1.432 × 10⁻⁷ ≈ 0.0000646 BTC/day

S21:
Expected BTC/day = 450.72 BTC × 3.016 × 10⁻⁷ ≈ 0.000136 BTC/day

Adjusted for 8-Hour Operation:

S19j+:
Adjusted BTC/day = 0.0000646 BTC/day × (8 ÷ 24) ≈ 0.0000215 BTC/day

S21:
Adjusted BTC/day = 0.000136 BTC/day × (8 ÷ 24) ≈ 0.0000453 BTC/day

Daily Revenue per Miner

S19j+ Revenue:
0.0000215 BTC/day × $62,125.31 = $1.34 per day

S21 Revenue:
0.0000453 BTC/day × $62,125.31 = $2.82 per day

Payback Period

S19j+:
Payback Period = $300 ÷ $1.34 ≈ 224 days

S21:
Payback Period = $4,000 ÷ $2.82 ≈ 1,418 days

Annual Revenue and ROI

S19j+ Annual Revenue:
$1.34/day × 365 days = $489 per year
Annual ROI:
ROI = (($489 - $300) ÷ $300) × 100% ≈ 63%

S21 Annual Revenue:
$2.82/day × 365 days = $1,029 per year
Annual ROI: Negative until after the payback period (~3.89 years)

Investment Comparison

Investing $4,000:

Option 1: 1 S21 Miner
Total Hash Rate: 200 TH/s
Daily Revenue: $2.82
Payback Period = $4,000 ÷ $2.82 ≈ 1,418 days

Option 2: 13 S19j+ Miners ($300 each)
Total Hash Rate: 13 × 95 TH/s = 1,235 TH/s
Proportion = (1,235 × 10¹² H/s) ÷ (663 × 10¹⁸ H/s) ≈ 1.862 × 10⁻⁶
Expected BTC/day = 450.72 BTC × 1.862 × 10⁻⁶ ≈ 0.000840 BTC/day
Adjusted BTC/day = 0.000840 BTC/day × (8 ÷ 24) ≈ 0.000280 BTC/day
Daily Revenue = 0.000280 BTC/day × $62,125.31 = $17.39 per day
Payback Period = $4,000 ÷ $17.39 ≈ 230 days

Conclusion: Investing in multiple S19j+ miners yields higher hash rate and faster ROI compared to a single S21 miner.

How about taking a chance in the $160k bitcoin lottery and solo mine it?

Chance per block: 1 in 515,279

Chance per day: 1 in 3,578

Time estimate: 10 years

 ;D

Yes, mostly paid other than more inverters and mounts for the panels.

I would rather invest in the latest Asic miners instead, the s19 are already on the line of retirement, and now they are losing profitability faster, if you have multiple of them then you can add easily buy one latest Asic miner.

Less heat, more gains and also less noise.

Do not forget that if your ROI was to be made back in 2 years, running on solar panels alone will add an extra 2 years to ROI because once the sun is down you have to wait till the next day.

Thanks, the calculations already take into account only mining during the day.

Aren't there better ways to invest the produced power like offsetting your own electricity usage or selling it to the grid?
Mining would not be my first choice.

Not that I've been able to come up with.
I already generate my own power for the house and the power co doesn't pay sh*t here.

Completety self sufficient, that's impressive. In that case I'd suggest balancing the mining to allow the batteries to fully charge and mine 24/7.
You would ROI faster and you would need less mining equipment to do it.

Okay, I guess the 'Total Off-grid' plan is already laid out regardless of the result of this 50kW solar power experiment.

0.00000194% chance per block isn't too bad.
Time estimate isn't really a good basis since this "10 years" could be the block in the next 10 minutes or the next 10 years.
An extreme example is the miner of block 853742 who only had 3.1TH, reference: /index.php?topic=5237323.msg64356985#msg64356985 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5237323.msg64356985#msg64356985)
But don't take that as an encouragement to solo, just saying that a very low chance has a chance.

At last, someone who doesn't think that "ROI" is the same as "Capital Return".  ;D

Also, take the gradual increase of total network hash rate in consideration and the next "halving" if it would take more than 4 years from now to ROI.

You need to compare Antminer S19j+ with other modern ASICs. Antminer S21 is already outdated. But if you have a choice of only 2 ASICs, then in your case Antminer S19j+ is more profitable, but the bad thing is that you can mine only one third of the day.

Yes Sir, and how about the projected increase in price,
I recalculated with a 3 X increase in 3 years using todays price, I'll spare all the math.

Future Price = $61,000 × 3 = $183,000

Total Value of Mined Bitcoin After 3 Years
Total Value = Total BTC Mined × Future Price

Total Value = 0.200385 BTC × $183,000/BTC ≈ $36,670.46

ROI
Net Profit
Net Profit = Total Value - Initial Investment

Net Profit = $36,670.46 - $3,000 = $33,670.46

ROI Percentage
ROI (%) = (Net Profit ÷ Initial Investment) × 100%

ROI = ($33,670.46 ÷ $3,000) × 100% ≈ 1,122%

True, I am on the slow boat.  ;D

So I have enough of the system built to start some test runs, that's what I did yesterday.
I finished setting up and started the first run at 2pm. It ran until 8pm where the inverter shut down at the programed battery low voltage setpoint of 30%.
Check it out, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlrzSxn80-s

Will do a full day run today.
This is on a Solis S6 11.4 KW Inverter, 7kw of Solar Panels and 24 KW Nissan Leaf Battery.

Today I started mining at 10am and shut down at 7pm with 40% battery left. Most of the day was sunny but mid to late afternoon was cloudy.
So this time of the year I can get about 9 hrs of mining with the current set-up. That makes about $2.25/day on an old S19i x 10pcs =  $22.50/day
What do you guys think?

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/10/18/89mqC.png


https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/10/18/89Ryv.png

I see that you are having power issues after 2pm, and you have extra battery power running. What happens if the battery is not charged in the morning due to bad weather?

That happens quite a bit, I think the dropouts are issues with the Solis Cloud, the Miner doesn't show any restarts during those times.
Right now I have the inverter running between 50 and 90% battery SOC, in the evening it shuts down at 50% SOC.
I don't have any automation running yet so for bad weather during morning startup the inverter charges the battery to over 50% and starts generating.
If there is more draw than the system can sustain the inverter shuts off again, it keeps this loop up until there's enough solar.
Not ideal for sure.

I think the first script I write will stop the miner let it cool down then shut it down at night then in the morning after it starts for the first time I'll put it into sleep mode until there is sufficient SOC.


Any thoughts?

Usually, the peak of electricity consumption occurs during the daytime. If you find a partner from whom you can buy cheap electricity at night, your mining farm can work much more efficiently.
I see your profit about 675 dollars per month, how much money does your Solar system cost?

Your video was the only thing I found for doing something like this! I didn't see your script on Github anymore though. I saw there's one guy on twitter who is making and selling hardware to do this kinda thing, but that's too expensive and complex a solution for me. I never even invested in batteries. I ended up with a free S19i, which was just sitting around now, thanks to stupid AI data centers jacking electricity to the moon.

I unofficially grid tied my solar install on my own, never doing a Smart Meter and never giving those greedy BLEEPS the satisfaction of giving me a token reward for my generation. Unfortunately for me, I've been giving the neighborhood my excess for free, until now! Since we already have to pay out the a$$ for AI around here, figured I might as well use it to build me a script. I can't program to save my life. :P I now have a Powershell script tying MultiSIBControl together with Vnish's throttling, which kicks in to mine with the excess solar! It's rough, but it works. Funny enough, I've had to burn just as many hours getting the AI to make a working version, as I've spent cobbling together free scripts for webpages, lol. It even has a buffer for passing clouds. Now the arrows on the meter, for export/draw, dance back and forth, showing it's running right on the edge. Far easier and cheaper for a home miner to just open up a program on Windows and watch it go. 8)

I miss the old analog meter though, these digital replacements suck. They don't credit you properly like the analogs did, and if you want credit, you have to bend over and take it from the power company. >:(