Bitcoin Forum

So it seems that so many investors waited for the holiday slump that their bids cumulated into a critical mass.  But will the slump arrive?  I think it is still a possibility - after the investors spent the surplus money in the rally.

What is your sample size for this "Holiday Slump" effect?

There are tons of peeps who have "extra" cash to play around with after Christmas so I don't really see much of a slump happening  ;)

Furthermore the 50% fee discount coming into effect on the 25th to the end of the year ought to do something for volume as well.

I don't remember anything specific - but on the way up it was quite common that on weekends and bank holidays there were slumps - because no new money was coming in.  On the way down this effect disappeared - but now we are back on an up trend aren't we?

Can't say this was unexpected.

Could you elaborate? What fee is being discounted?

MtGoxs trading fee

With Dwolla Instant that effect will be lessened.

Hmm - seems that the sell pressure got discharged, maybe there is nothing left for the holidays?

Money doesn't disappear, it changes hands. Stop worrying so much about what other people are doing with their money and start worrying about what you're doing with yours.

Also, if you are so interested in how much money is coming in to Bitcoin, why not do something to get more money into it? Speculation = circle jerk of people who can't "do".

It is kind of dumb to 'do something' without thinking what you are doing and advising it here is simply trolling.  I predicted this slump and saved a lot of money in this way.

I wouldn't call it a slump... It's more like 1 guy cashed out $100,000 worth of bitcoin.  The good news is several people bought all those, so it makes the event harder to repeat.  As soon as the sale finished the price rapidly recovered.  Not fully, but $100,000 is huge volume.

I have gone long on bitcoin.  In the very recent past (no, not $4.50+).  Which means, bitcoin is doomed and about to crash.  Everything I buy ends up going the other way in price.  I surely have the death touch when it comes to investing.  Beware.

 :D

We can cancel eachother out. When I sell, price goes up.

If you buy, and I sell, at the same exact time, the universe will explode.

http://halshop.files.wordpress.com/2007/03/phpw9jvl0pm.jpg

It's impressive how $100k hardly makes any impact on the closing price these days.  Just a few months ago, $100k could trigger a HUGE 50%-price-drop selloff.

Exactly.  It works the other way too, which is why I'm skeptical of seeing high prices any time soon.

High prices now have to be based on the merits and depths of the bitcoin economy rather than on some manipulator buying large sums of bitcoin. On the other hand, I believe, it is easier now to increase the price of bitcoin than to decrease it as more and more bitcoins are in the hands of more and more people. People has now it seems stopped panic selling.

Dwolla Instant is a non-issue. They have already been overwhelmed and had to cut the service off. Another amateur move by dwolla, but did anyone see giving away free money as going well?

Regarding the slump...what slump? Bitcoin is double the price of last month.

That's true, but it's a little more than 4x less than the price 6 months ago.  Maybe this is a major reversal.  It isn't out of the question, but only time will tell.

I would venture a theory that 6 months ago, the world got a little too excited and the price shouldn't have shot up to over 30.  Now we've got some balancing of the equation, so I would weight the fact that bitcoin is twice what it was a month ago more heavily than the fact that it's still down 75% from 6 months ago.

What I had in mind already happened when it dropped from 4 to 3.5, it is now back to 3.9 so it might seem inconsequential - but if someone wanted to buy cheap - then he had the occasion.

They just limited the number of users at first.  Wise move when you are extending credit if you ask me.  Also, probably required by whoever is extending Dwolla the credit to back this feature.  However, 2 days ago I clicked the 'notify me when available' button and now I'm eligible.  2 days is a pretty reasonable wait time.  So yes, the Dwolla instant effect may not eliminate the weekend/holiday slump effect, it will lessen it as I said.  As it becomes more available it will probably come close to eliminating slumps due to no USD funds available.