Bitcoin Forum

Okay, I know a lot of you think we're probably never going back there, but consider this a contest that will take more luck/skill to win then something like "when will we drop to $4 again". Prize is 2.5BTC from me, and times are in UTC. Voting closes when we hit $3.50 or in one month, whichever comes first. If two people try to guess the same date, tie goes to the first poster, and yes, we're guessing at the *future* (so guessing Nov. 18 2011 gets you nothing). I will try to put in an updated comment when voting is closed. Let the guessing begin!

My guess: I'm sticking with my June 27, 2012 :)

February 5, 2012 or 2012‐02‐05.

Yeah, I'm not very optimistic right now. The rally looks like it's another unsustainable one.

BTW: Lock the thread when voting closes so people can't edit their post.

how about.. NEVER

I really hope it's not going down that low again.. but, I'll throw a random date out anyways

May 15, 2012

Well markets aren't an endless, constant rally when climbing up, they dip back down and especially after big spikes. Currently we are still above 4 were it was sitting for a couple days before starting to climb yesterday. Perhaps it shall sit in the mid teens for a while before proceeding upwards some more. But so far I'm seeing a price that has gone UP, I'm quite optimistic. I vote never also.

April 24, 2012.

But I don't think it will happen.

2012 - 01 - 24

Just to clarify, is it $2.00-$2.99 range? Or $2 even?

Like a fool I'll vote for April 1st, 2012.  :P

Will not happen in 2012.

Just 6 months ago, most thought it would never happen again!

21st March 2012

Just before my bonus, so if I'm right I'll buy loads of coins  ;D

It's $2 or less, so whenever it breaks into the $1.xx range. Hey, it's free BTC if you guess right, and if you guess never and happen to be correct we can all look back on this in several years and laugh at me. :)

IMO:

Short-term (weeks): momentum looks good, much to my annoyance.  I've been preaching about fundamentals and bears for a while, and Bubble2 indicates you all aren't listening.  :)

Mid-term (months): fundamentals will catch up when people get tired of feeding the miners their fiat.  Bubble2 won't be nearly as fun as Bubble1 was.  Still, it'll take a few months to hit 2.00.  Let's say: April 15, high noon.

Long-term (years): Everything depends on how well fundamentals develop.  If adoption doesn't pick up, we're looking at trading for nickels and dimes this year.  If we see some real commerce start to happen with established businesses instead of just community-focused ones, I'll take off the bear suit and get on the rocket.

Jan 25th, 2012 - 3:49 AM UTC.

April 29th, 2012

March 8th, 2012

July 14, 2012

Is the bounty only for the exact day or for the one with nearest date?

Nearest date. And to clarify, if two people guess for instance March 5 and March 7 and the date ends up being March 6, then I will take whichever of those two people posted first -- counted as an ENTIRE DAY, not as hours/minutes from the date. (So 12:01AM March 6 would still be March 6, and if the March 7 guess came before the March 5 guess the March 7 guess wins.)

Jan 29th, 2012

I am not sure if we will see $2 btc but if we do I am guessing 2012-02-19 (Feb 19th)

The "price" can vary between exchanges, particularly when there is a volatile period and arbitrage hasn't brought prices to an equilibrium.  Can you be a bit more specific on what would cause this "$2 price" event to occur? 

MtGox executing an order at or below $2.0000.

October 22, 2012 - just some wild speculation

I guess we should thank the_joint for making all of these contests read like a EULA with every possibility covered.

I'll take tax day, April 15th, 2012.

If it happened on that day, and this were a work of fiction. I'm sure there would be some clever literary device being used.

remember remember the 5th of November

lol. if you all bet on february 2012, you all will be very nervous in february^^

i go with the herd: february the 17. of 2012

 8)

if not, than it will not in 2012 get down to $2 again at all^^

January 18th 2012

What do you mean by $2?

The new Dollar backed by gold, again? Well, then Bitcoin will reach that price on Jan 1st 2019, when new Gold Dollar will be established.

If you mean current US Dollar, then, the answer is, of course, never.

the us dollar will fail, the us federal reserve bank and the government wil make a new currency after superinflation of USD...
and bitcoin will explode by then.

(only guessing... so i think it will not touch 2 again.. if it will, it will be the 16. may 2012 :-)

December 21 2012

Oh Noes!  :'(
But that's when the world is supposed to...NVM!

2012-June-09

March 17, 2012

Never

Why are we the only ones saying this... seriously.  I can't believe people really think it'll go back to $2 after all that's happened.

Justin Case.  ;)

I doubt it will either. But, if it does, I hope it's on my guessed date!

No.

i truly think that Bitcoinica's short selling capabilities introduced in September caused an overshoot to the downside below the level of profitability for miners.  

we had a classic double bottom or triple bottom depending on how you read the charts.

the strong rebound off $2 is telling you (or me at least) we will never go back there.

This, and the fact that there weren't many bids. People didn't know when it would stop, so the $$$ in Gox just sat on the sidelines, which in turn allowed the price to fall farther.

yes, a spiral down.  question is; did all the short selling cause the bids to dry up?

Here's the problem with the BTC value: it's driven mostly by geeks with a few large holders of BTC. If any of those get spooked and decide to start selling, it can result in a panic sell that leaves us back in the $2 range. I don't see $2 happening any time soon, but then I also didn't see $4+ coming again, certainly not before 2012. It happened once, and all it will take is a similar set of circumstances and it can (and probably will -- several times) happen again.

People talk about fundamentals and such, but the people I know who are really into technology all think Bitcoin is a joke. "Okay, cool, a cryptocurrency" they say, "but what can I do with it?" As someone else pointed out in a different thread, the people putting money into Bitcoin are just transferring their money to the miners who are selling it off to pay for hardware/electricity. The idea that BTC is somehow going to become mainstream, or take over regular currencies, or whatever... no, I just don't see it. My feeling based on recent history is that BTC value is tied pretty closely to fiat values and the stock market. When those do well, BTC will trend up; if they do poorly, it goes down. Sure, there are exceptions, but I think there are people waiting for the new year before they do any serious investing -- they don't want to blow a bonus right at the end of the year, so they play it conservative, in stocks as well as in BTC.

I expect one way or the other, things will get a little chaotic around Jan 2. Are we going up or down, that's the real question. I'm inclined to say down. But the great thing is that if you naysayers are right, I don't have to pay out! ;-)

you hit it right on the head; its the tech guys who don't know anything about economics who think Bitcoin is a joke.  they don't appreciate what they've invented.

successful boomers like me who are non-tech who've studied Austrian economics for many years and bought gold and silver back in 2005 are the ones who are going to drive this rocket ship up as more widespread appreciation of the technology becomes apparent.  it took me only one weekend to understand what i was looking at and i started selling my gold and silver in the Spring and top ticked the market perfectly.  now you've got other pm guys like Max Keiser and Robert Prechter and his son, Elliott all over this thing.  silver bull David Morgan follows my blog on Twitter and he is a long term silver bull analyst.  

this is slipping away from you right under your nose.

+1; The way I'm seeing it, bitcoin (and possibly other cryptocurrencies) will have money poured into it at a rate that is inversely proportional to the rate at which stocks and other traditional assets fail... And that failure is already happening.  There will be no other alternative for investment.

If stocks and other assets fail, why should Bitcoin be safe? It's not like you can actually store your Bitcoins separate from the network; if that were ever compromised, your digital currency is worth less than fiat, because at least you can burn fiat. Bitcoin seems more like the pre-2001 dot com bubble, and at some point it's likely to burst until/unless it's backed up by more than geeks with computers and Internet access. Just my two cents, naturally.

well thats just it.  the Internet will never be compromised. after all, it was built to withstand nuclear attacks was it not?  and look how successful Egypt was at shutting down its Internet.  the banksters were the ones crying Uncle while it was down.  they couldn't shovel their money around behind their citizens backs w/o it.

Bitcoin is the newest, most undervalued asset out there and the way i see it, the most protected from confiscation and inflation.

After all what that's happened?  How have the fundamentals changed?

I know those kind of tech people too.

Who will need gold to save money when you can have Bitcoins?
They are simply much better.

That's some funny stuff man, I'll continue the story:

And then Pollyanna resumed schtupping herself with Aunt Polly's rolling pin. "What a wonderful way to start the new year" she thought, "Soon I will have enough bitcoins for a shiny new Trojan Twister, and won't the cookies be so much better for that?".