Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: antoineph on January 10, 2012, 06:08:28 AM



Title: Clash of the Titans
Post by: antoineph on January 10, 2012, 06:08:28 AM
Buy to 6.89, then sell to 6.001. Crazy spread  :o


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: byronbb on January 10, 2012, 06:10:06 AM
http://i.imgur.com/Dtbh4.jpg


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Cluster2k on January 10, 2012, 06:10:19 AM
Buy to 6.89, then sell to 6.001. Crazy spread  :o

Seriously, someone's just fucking around with the market right now.  Doing it for lulz.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: evoorhees on January 10, 2012, 06:14:07 AM
Something like that is likely to result in a Double-Zhoutonging!!!  Could open a rift in the Satoshi-time continuum.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on January 10, 2012, 06:15:09 AM
Something is not right.


Someone has found an exploit.


It's damn near impossible to predict when another person is going to make a big leap forward, much less simultaneously 3 times now, to my knowledge.



He must be buying and selling coins simultaneously to his advantage because he's done it multiple times.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: notme on January 10, 2012, 06:17:03 AM
Something is not right.


Someone has found an exploit.


It's damn near impossible to predict when another person is going to make a big leap forward, much less simultaneously 3 times now, to my knowledge.



He must be buying and selling coins simultaneously to his advantage because he's done it multiple times.

He's making his buys look like sells.  He's exploiting the fear of "OMG, look at that huge dump", when in fact, he bought much more than he sold.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: antoineph on January 10, 2012, 06:17:55 AM
Something is not right.


Someone has found an exploit.


It's damn near impossible to predict when another person is going to make a big leap forward, much less simultaneously 3 times now, to my knowledge.



He must be buying and selling coins simultaneously to his advantage because he's done it multiple times.

how do you know there's an exploit? Just because the same person is buying and selling coins? (that's not even a certainty)


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: legitnick on January 10, 2012, 06:18:04 AM
I don't care what it is, I just hope it keeps up

gotta love this volatility
this.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Hawkix on January 10, 2012, 06:18:49 AM
This happened yesterday at about the same time of day, too.

Either:

a) the same person sells and buys
b) Zhoutongs algorithms gone maid
c) MtGox own trading against


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: rastapool on January 10, 2012, 06:19:01 AM
http://i.imgur.com/GT6xx.png


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: old_engineer on January 10, 2012, 06:22:06 AM
I figure it's someone with USD and no BTC that accidentally left a sell order at $6.00, and as soon as they executed buy up to $6.70, the sell order was executed with the newly received coins.



Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Dan The Man on January 10, 2012, 06:22:39 AM
Someone checking to see if they can trigger some liquidation at Bitcoinica?


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: notme on January 10, 2012, 06:23:13 AM
I figure it's someone with USD and no BTC that accidentally left a sell order at $6.00, and as soon as they executed buy up to $6.70, the sell order was executed with the newly received coins.



lol.... that seems fairly likely


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: phorensic on January 10, 2012, 06:24:03 AM
That is one hell of a candlestick.  Does anybody have the technical name for it?  You know, like those other 40 names for candlesticks like morning star and shit?

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7153/6671676609_823a2a48a2_z.jpg


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: notme on January 10, 2012, 06:27:24 AM
If it is one person what would their motive be?

Lets look at the result of their actions. Clearing out the asks and bids between 6 and 7 takes away the market depth between those numbers. This creates volatility for hours as people try to agree on a price again.

So, who profits from volatility?

If that was their goal, they seem to have failed.  It's right back where it was, and both sides of the order book are filling back in.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: phorensic on January 10, 2012, 06:27:46 AM
So, who profits from volatility?
Good traders.  It's like christmas for them.  I'm stuck in a long position above $7 and I refuse to liquidate.  If I wasn't stuck in a position I would have had an orgasm during that swing.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Bigpiggy01 on January 10, 2012, 06:29:34 AM
Nah this is just Zhoutong counter selling into price spikes so he won't have to execute any in place limit orders under his 4second or whatever delay rule.

It's also funny how this seems to really bork Gox's websocket amongst other things.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: ArsenShnurkov on January 10, 2012, 06:31:42 AM
If it is one person what would their motive be?

1. To declare his presence and might
2. To show price corridor which he think should be
3. To count the robots on the market

UPD:
4. He bought chunck of bitcoins without moving the price


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: happycamper on January 10, 2012, 06:35:58 AM
That is one hell of a candlestick.  Does anybody have the technical name for it?

I don't know the technical name, but i think we should call it madnipulator


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: old_engineer on January 10, 2012, 06:44:21 AM
I figure it's someone with USD and no BTC that accidentally left a sell order at $6.00, and as soon as they executed buy up to $6.70, the sell order was executed with the newly received coins.



god, wouldn't you just feel like a total douche?
Yep, I have, several times in fact.  I think my biggest fuckup like this was a 300 btc buy, but thankfully the spread wasn't nearly so wide.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: adamstgBit on January 10, 2012, 07:04:40 AM
the bitcoin scented candle

and smell like BULLSHIT!!

 :D


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 10, 2012, 07:17:09 AM
I figure it's someone with USD and no BTC that accidentally left a sell order at $6.00, and as soon as they executed buy up to $6.70, the sell order was executed with the newly received coins.



god, wouldn't you just feel like a total douche?
Yep, I have, several times in fact.  I think my biggest fuckup like this was a 300 btc buy, but thankfully the spread wasn't nearly so wide.

Ha and here I was all butthurt last night over accidentally selling nine coins at $7.  I think I can get over it much easier now, thanks guys.  :-)


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on January 10, 2012, 07:39:22 AM
I can understand someone making a critical error to their own demise once.


but twice? fuck no.


three times? not in this lifetime.




Something is up. I can smell it.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Bigpiggy01 on January 10, 2012, 07:55:06 AM
Quote
Something is up. I can smell it.

Just bitcoinica messing with the market so that A they don't have to execute limit orders close to market and B they're creating a spread to work. Think about how Zhoutong'd otherwise make any money in a more or less mono-directional market.



Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on January 10, 2012, 08:03:39 AM
You're absolutely right. Bitcoinica is most definitely the culprit. This manipulation never occurred before its presence and the site creator must have foreseen his masterfully crafted con way ahead of schedule. He's not a dumb guy and if anyone could do something inappropriate in front of our faces, it would be him.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: bb113 on January 10, 2012, 08:07:18 AM
Its like someone with a machete clearing a path


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: notme on January 10, 2012, 08:07:41 AM
You're absolutely right. Bitcoinica is most definitely the culprit. This manipulation never occurred before its presence and the site creator must have foreseen his masterfully crafted con way ahead of schedule. He's not a dumb guy and if anyone could do something inappropriate in front of our faces, it would be him.

Yeah.... let's get the pitchforks!

Seriously guys, there are other possibilities here.  There are lots of people who profit from volatility.  We have to go through this phase before we can move on.  We won't have the next wave up until we lose the exuberance-paranoia cycle.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on January 10, 2012, 08:08:55 AM
This is not about volatility.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: bb113 on January 10, 2012, 08:14:43 AM
This is too crazy. Someone should get tux on IRC and figure out if theres something wrong on his end.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: bb113 on January 10, 2012, 09:16:56 AM
If it is one person what would their motive be?

1. To declare his presence and might
2. To show price corridor which he think should be
3. To count the robots on the market

UPD:
4. He bought chunck of bitcoins without moving the price

Now I think its this. What do I know though.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on January 10, 2012, 09:39:17 AM
Start resources 5000 bitcoin / $5000

Start price: $6.50


If you buy 1 btc at $6.75
and sell 1 btc at $6.25

You now have 5000 bitcoin / $4999.50

That's a losing scenerio every time.

Even when you focus on the asymmetrical distribution of bid/asks, as long as 1 coin is bought on the right side of the starting price and as long as 1 coin is sold on the left side of the start price, you will lose money. We know they aren't using the asymmetry to profit because the buys and sells occur simultaneously.


The only instance I can come up with where you'd make money is by profiting from the number of transactions someone makes using your interface, i.e. Bitcoinica.



Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: bb113 on January 10, 2012, 09:44:57 AM
Unless you expect the price to rise in the future, so are willing to take a loss for now in order to accumulate btc. It may still be cheaper than buying all at once or gradually.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: bb113 on January 10, 2012, 09:50:47 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=2&i=5-min&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=AccDist&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 10, 2012, 09:51:18 AM
Start resources 5000 bitcoin / $5000

Start price: $6.50


If you buy 1 btc at $6.75
and sell 1 btc at $6.25

You now have 5000 bitcoin / $4999.50

That's a losing scenerio every time.

Even when you focus on the asymmetrical distribution of bid/asks, as long as 1 coin is bought on the right side of the starting price and as long as 1 coin is sold on the left side of the start price, you will lose money. We know they aren't using the asymmetry to profit because the buys and sells occur simultaneously.


The only instance I can come up with where you'd make money is by profiting from the number of transactions someone makes using your interface, i.e. Bitcoinica.


I make that kind of "mistake" when I stop and restart my bot during price swings ... old bids / asks will be left in wrong places, and then may get filled when I'd rather them not, but... not large amounts by any means.
But then, my bot is not so sophisticated yet.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: bb113 on January 10, 2012, 10:23:06 AM
Now the bot ran out of money?

http://i41.tinypic.com/28sahhw.png


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 10, 2012, 10:25:44 AM
Now the bot ran out of money?

http://i41.tinypic.com/28sahhw.png

No orders in the range for making money and no one cares to place any right now ;-)


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: notme on January 10, 2012, 10:30:14 AM
Someone hit it with a hammer.... it's stuck.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: bb113 on January 10, 2012, 10:40:09 AM
Now the bot ran out of money?


No orders in the range for making money and no one cares to place any right now ;-)

Can you explain this further? Im new.

*edit= got rid of big pic



Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 10, 2012, 10:50:14 AM
Now the bot ran out of money?


No orders in the range for making money and no one cares to place any right now ;-)

Can you explain this further? Im new.

*edit= got rid of big pic



Every sell order needs a buyer and every buy order needs a seller in order for a transaction to occur.  In order for profit to be made, you would ideally sell higher than the current highest bid and buy lower than the lowest ask.  So for example, right now (as far as i can tell) the lowest ask is 6.38, while the highest bid is 6.40, which is higher than the lowest ask.  So then when you put buy orders below that ask and sell orders above that bid, whether you do it manually or automatically, it's going to be hard to get those orders filled.

Some bots will keep running and put LOTS of buys and sells really really close together, some small (to test the price or whatever), and in these times where no one is really doing any trading, the bots will still trade pennies back and forth because their buys and sells touch every once in a while.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: bb113 on January 10, 2012, 11:01:39 AM
Now the bot ran out of money?


No orders in the range for making money and no one cares to place any right now ;-)

Can you explain this further? Im new.

*edit= got rid of big pic



Every sell order needs a buyer and every buy order needs a seller in order for a transaction to occur.  In order for profit to be made, you would ideally sell higher than the current highest bid and buy lower than the lowest ask.  So for example, right now (as far as i can tell) the lowest ask is 6.38, while the highest bid is 6.40, which is higher than the lowest ask.  So then when you put buy orders below that ask and sell orders above that bid, whether you do it manually or automatically, it's going to be hard to get those orders filled.

Some bots will keep running and put LOTS of buys and sells really really close together, some small (to test the price or whatever), and in these times where no one is really doing any trading, the bots will still trade pennies back and forth because their buys and sells touch every once in a while.

Makes sense, thanks.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Vandroiy on January 10, 2012, 11:21:32 AM
Never seen a misclick-panic before?

They always remind me to check I'm using the correct sell/buy box on Gox, they look so similar. ;) Some people panic after they mis-click and do the opposite move instantly afterwards.

Or they really want to trigger Bitcoinica. these only go one way though, if I understand correctly, because it's a bucket shop if it can be. Can't say what kinds of exploits exist for certain though, I don't use Bitcoinica.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Cluster2k on January 10, 2012, 11:49:40 AM
Whatever happens, MtGox wins.  Every bout of volatility is a gold mine for them through fees.  A thin market with no action is what MtGox doesn't want.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: cypherdoc on January 10, 2012, 03:27:17 PM
Something like that is likely to result in a Double-Zhoutonging!!!  Could open a rift in the Satoshi-time continuum.

everyone has to say this at least once in their lifetime here on the Forum.

it just rolls off your tong. :D


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: bitcoinBull on January 10, 2012, 05:36:10 PM
Whatever happens, MtGox wins.  Every bout of volatility is a gold mine for them through fees.  A thin market with no action is what MtGox doesn't want.

But during sideways movements with lots of trading and a high spread, its the market makers who are raking it in.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: cypherdoc on January 10, 2012, 05:43:05 PM
Whatever happens, MtGox wins.  Every bout of volatility is a gold mine for them through fees.  A thin market with no action is what MtGox doesn't want.

But during sideways movements with lots of trading and a high spread, its the market makers who are raking it in.

this.

it seems to me that by looking at Zhou's spreads, you can tell which way the book is stacked up.  if the mtgox price is say $6 and the spreads at Bitcoinica are $5.95 and $6.10, wouldn't that be reflective of a higher number of buy limit orders vs. seller limit orders?


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 10, 2012, 09:46:59 PM
Whatever happens, MtGox wins.  Every bout of volatility is a gold mine for them through fees.  A thin market with no action is what MtGox doesn't want.

But during sideways movements with lots of trading and a high spread, its the market makers who are raking it in.

this.

it seems to me that by looking at Zhou's spreads, you can tell which way the book is stacked up.  if the mtgox price is say $6 and the spreads at Bitcoinica are $5.95 and $6.10, wouldn't that be reflective of a higher number of buy limit orders vs. seller limit orders?

Like right now, when the difference between Gox and Bitcoinica's market sell is $0.05, but the difference between Gox and Bitcoinica market buy is $0.08 (and an occasional asterisk)...
Fucking ingenious IMO.  I can't wait to get the resources to provide competition for Bitcoinica.


Title: Re: Clash of the Titans
Post by: zby on January 10, 2012, 09:51:18 PM
Whatever happens, MtGox wins.  Every bout of volatility is a gold mine for them through fees.  A thin market with no action is what MtGox doesn't want.

But during sideways movements with lots of trading and a high spread, its the market makers who are raking it in.

this.

it seems to me that by looking at Zhou's spreads, you can tell which way the book is stacked up.  if the mtgox price is say $6 and the spreads at Bitcoinica are $5.95 and $6.10, wouldn't that be reflective of a higher number of buy limit orders vs. seller limit orders?
From what I've seen Zhou executes the limit orders at his price - that is with margin, he does not put those orders directly on MtGox - but rather he waits until matching orders are stacked there.