Bitcoin Forum

all house wives will rush to get a bitcoin? ) $100 here we come! lolz

I'm at work so I can't really check too much, but what's changed to make you think that?  It's still at $6.80 as far as I can tell (like the last few days)...

Don't get me wrong, I hope you're right :)

EDIT: Just realised there might be a picture in your post that's been blocked so I can't see it (I rarely see any attachments from this forum when I'm at work) :)

I find the idea to blow up price by drawing in more speculators speculatacular.

Just that I don't see how the outcome should differ from last time, apart from the spike being dampened by the experience. Or not happening at all unless someone wants to keep the price hike show up.

So, on a more serious note, I don't think this is how it should work. The proposal is a Ponzi scheme if people are supposed to expect price to keep growing at current speeds on logscale.

Bring it on! I eagerly await this.

correction to 10$ ?

So what's the time-frame on that inau?

I predict the TV show will have no further impact on bitcoin, and that after viewing it people will be complaining on this forum that 'they didn't mention bitcoin enough' and 'they didn't say how great it is'.

I will officially go on record and say that anyone buying over 6.50 will be sorry they did.

Ok back to the show.

I agree with this. The show is a fiction drama, most viewers, 98%, won't even have the thought cross their mind that bitcoin is even real. They will think of it as fiction on a fiction show. I don't know about anyone else, but when I watch a movie or TV show I'm not instantly compelled to start googling the names of companies or technologies in the show.

Jan. 08 :
https://i.imgur.com/tOlIg.png

The people who 'get' bitcoin or will anytime soon are mostly here. The masses are going to take 3-10 exposures to start taking it seriously. Mark one down imo.

Get ready for 123678 wft-Bitcoin-is-a-real-thing moments over the next 3 months.

Hush!  We're trying to set up a bubble here!  :)


It's not a Ponzi (centralized).  It's much closer to a pyramid scheme (decentralized).

The wildly-optimistic scenario isn't for eternal growth, but just very fast growth up to the scale of fiat money supplies, first as speculators try to get in early, later as people switch from fiat to BTC on a widespread scale.

Yes, and if the price dips below the support on this wedge you should probably short.

There is always an alternate scenario.

MACD crossover incoming...

https://i.imgur.com/nXlL0.png

RSI still flirting with 70.

Still, we could quite easily punch through $7.20 at any second, and I think that will result in a serious squeeze.

I wouldn't like to call this one. I'll stay on the sidelines for now.

argh I cannot resist... FOMO'd

100% long on gox...

Heh, 100% :o

Yeah, no zhoutonging to worry about there! worst case scenario i've upped my long term core holding at a slightly higher price.

I still got my bids lined up on bitcoinica in case of any dip :D

I honestly don't have big expectations from the TV show. It's a fictional drama that has a viewer base which probably don't understand nor care about Bitcoin even after watching the show. I'm of course interested in the show but expecting the prices to skyrocket because of it is expecting too much. It'll depend on how the show is but to me there is a low possibility of it being very beneficial to Bitcoin. However I could be wrong and I'm happy if that happens to be the case. We'll see.

But this doesn't change the fact that we're going up, maybe not rocketing up but Bitcoin is way too significant and a fundamentally growing technology to ever be stable at single digits. The market cap is simply way too low at these levels, at this point in time.

This year Bitcoin will go to a whole another level, for me it's totally insignificant if it happens next week or 6 months from now. I'm not a trader unless I'm forced to do it, I'm an investor and an enterpreneur. I plan on not selling a single satoshi unless I actually need the money or am forced to start trading due to an apparent downtrend/bubble collapse. The ideal scenario would be that I could hold my BTC for long enough to simply use it directly when I need it, without the need to ever change it into fiat again.

This ideal scenario is of course quite optimistic, I believe we will see a couple of bubbles before I'm able to use BTC for the majority of my purchases. This will mean that at some point I have to hide the bull temporarily, once again. Happy to be a bull on all accounts right now though, expecting it to last for quite a while. The next wave of interest will be hell of a lot bigger than the first big wave because something like this doesn't just come back from the dead if it's nothing, investors will be more interested than ever before.

There is another possibility that I'm considering though and this is that we could go very high without it actually being a bubble, for the most part. A good part of the "Bitcoin collapse" was because there were a good number of serious incidents that basically caused a serious reliability issue for the whole economy. The market was overbought, yes, but without all of those incidents I simply can't believe it would've ever gone as low as $2.

So we will have some kind of a bubble for sure but I think it's very likely that without multiple serious incidents we will never have the type of bubble we had in June and after. It's simply not going to happen. Bitcoin could, and I'm serious about this, simply go up and up, with small and some bigger corrections on the way of course, until it reaches the point where it doesn't see significant growth anymore, from either investments or usage. This could take approximately 5-10 years.

I simply don't think that it's possible for us to see Bitcoin go up 1000% and then lose 90% of its value. Unless a lot of very bad shit happens, just like we saw happen in 2011. So my advice is to look for this bad shit very carefully, if it doesn't come I think it's a good idea to be long on bitcoins, very long in fact.

good call ;D, set your Jessi alarms & chill to some Doves sounds (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7ufv4f0krc)

Post of the Year.

Here it comes. Friday has begun. We had the bear trap, and there go the parabolic replenishing asks...

I saw this pattern just twice before. Both in June. One burst the bubble, the other started that bust we all remember too well. The second peak of the bursting was on a Thursday, I remember very well how I was sitting in a lecture when it peaked just below the all-time high, and it just missed one sell between 31 and 32, where I was being just one dollar too greedy on one of my orders.

You bulls better pray I'm seeing ghosts, or that there is someone to change the rules this time. A Millionaire, a TV viewer invasion, or something else of the kind.

To make it clear: no more balanced position, I already sold over 50% and have now officially turned bear again.

Yikes.  Hopefully we don't go below $2.

Edit:  Actually, if you're right, then we probably will go below $2.  Everyone out!

Three years from start ant there is no tutorials on how to integrate bitcoins into the common web engines.
Nothing significant will happen in this year also.

how to integrate bitcoins into a common webpage:

http://www.thebitcoinreview.com/images/rq-code.bmp
197SaHNSQpNZXKssR8v5pfUnkTx5UZRaYN

end of tutorial...

if you'd liek to have a more nifty approach:
http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2011/12/monetizing-blog-with-bitcoin.html (http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2011/12/monetizing-blog-with-bitcoin.html)

Oh, please let it happen... I really need to stock up again. The kiddos will be getting a bit extra in their savings addresses. :D

God, a bitcoin at $2? My powder is dry and ready.

The hype about 'bitcoin on TV' (not really, but anyway) and one small booth at CES had already been well and truly priced into bitcoin's price.  We'll need further product or service announcements or the correction downwards will continue.

I'm well aware of the numerous possibilities that could lead to Bitcoin's demise. The most severe ones are fundamental technical problems, legal problems and the possibility of a new technology that renders Bitcoin obsolete. These are the big issues and challenges which we need to keep a close eye on.

It has also been proven that the issues don't have to be catastrophical for the exchange rate to crash. None of the bad stuff that happened in 2011 were catastrophical to Bitcoin itself, the issues were with 3rd parties. Certain important 3rd parties have a very important role in the economy which means that if they have big issues it can set Bitcoin back at least temporarily.

However I believe that the understanding of Bitcoin has significantly improved since May. And it's going to improve in the future. This will make the impact of 3rd party failures at least somewhat smaller. Even in this case we will always have to worry about the severe issues that I listed in the first paragraph.

So the glass is half full again in this thread...  ::)

One other thing, though. Even though the failures of 2011 did have a serious impact on Bitcoin, they did not outright wipe it off the map. This isn't a trivial point. Just imagine what would have happened with the US dollar if the New York Stock Exchange had been hacked and all stocks had been sold down to a few cents each... or the impact on the gold market if someone had stolen about 5 percent of the world supply of gold in any given two month period (putting together MyBitcoin, allinvain and Bitomat). The implications would have been far deeper and lasted far longer.

Will there be other hacks? Probably. Other thefts? Almost certainly. I can also give you an almost 100 percent certainty that there will be a crash of a large jetliner some time in the next two years, but that doesn't mean that commercial aviation is unsafe, and it sure as hell doesn't mean it's just as unsafe as it was in the 1930's, the 1960's or the 1980's.

this. is there any good literature on what is supposed to happen once we enter the age of transaction fees?

As I recall, the assumption is that over time Bitcoin will become sufficiently entrenched that parties with interest in keeping the system running will continue to keep hashing blocks even if the fees don't cover the costs, as they stand to lose more if the system becomes insecure.

we must then hope that Bitcoin will become 'sufficiently entrenched' before the age of transaction fees...

That's something that's worried me.  How large of transaction fees will be required to ensure security?  I think double-spends won't be a problem; it's too hard to exploit even against a fairly small network.

On the other hand, I am concerned that someone with a vested interest in killing Bitcoin - government, banks, whatever - will pull a luke-jr and DOS the network.  We might have to throw a lot of money to miners to stop it.

If it does become entrenched, then transaction fees would be practically guaranteed to cover costs.

If it's 2050, and pretty much the only means of electronic commerce is through bitcoin, you can believe I'm not going to balk that much at, say, a mandatory, capped transaction fee of 1% to ensure immediate processing as opposed to next-week processing through the "charity miners." It's either pay the fee or not do business.

Right.... cause mining is free.

The mining difficulty will drop until it is profitable for more to mine again.

FTFY

So if widespread adoption occurs wouldn't the transaction fees (and thus bitcoin) basically be energy credits?

I don't think that'll be the case.

There are already people who allow no-fee transactions to be included in their blocks. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that someone, somewhere in the future, will continue to allow this. But their presence doesn't (and won't) mean fee-required mining won't exist. Fee-less mining will never be universal, so relying on such "charity" will result in slower confirmations.

I think it'll operate more like retail outlets do today. Can't afford high fees, or don't care about wait times? Then you can hit the stores selling used clothes, or at worst, rely on actual charity from a mission. Want the latest, hottest fashion (with no wait times?) Then you need to pay up. These extremes, and everything in-between, exist in the retail world now, because different people have different needs. I don't see why the same wouldn't be true for Bitcoin.

It isn't the zero-fee transactions you have to worry about.  A miner who refuses to include those isn't losing anything.

It's the one-satoshi-transaction-fee transactions you have to worry about.  No rational miner would exclude them (unless the block size limit has been hit, which we can't count on happening).

Miners who reject one-satoshi-fee transactions are effectively donating money to miners that don't.  That is not a stable situation.  That which is not stable will not endure.

Aren't there already miners who do this? I thought I heard one pool had a minimum fee requirement.

Even if not, I still don't see it being necessarily unstable. Even if one didn't want to set a minimum fee (and in the future, I can really see plenty of miners having a minimum,) one could still sort the pending transactions by fee amount rather than priority; smaller-fee transactions would still tend to take longer to confirm, so there would still be an incentive to pay higher fees to ensure rapid processing.

For those still listening to me, and I know you are few...
Alternate scenario seems to be active scenario now.  Target 5.8.
Get ready :)

Sorry, you'll have to speak up.  I can't hear anything with all this bear fur in my ears.  :)

LukeDJr aka "mining führer" does only include transactions with fee with eligius already afaik. correct me, if i am wrong. and for the transaction fees. Either bitcoin is going bananas and widely used (lets say a thousandtimes more transactions -> should be about 50 btc average as i gues average fees are now about 0.05btc? -> therefore no problem, or there will not be a problem to worry about, as no bitcoin no more...

I am going to watch for this very closely. I had my support target at $6.25.

By the way everyone, I don't recommend selling/shorting just yet.  Hold until we break 6.2 or 6.

6.2: is a .2 support
6: long-term uptrend.

We had a strong support up at 6.7 with the medium-term trendline.  I wanted to post something but didn't feel confident enough.  I should have.

Bet against your gut feeling, but keep in mind so is everyone else. Also keep in mind everyone else knows everyone else is doing this. Good luck.

We have confirmation... PSAR is bearish for the first time ever since the end of November. 
During a bear market, this means a 33-50% plunge.  During a bull market, it might mean a break of the major long-term trendline and a "bear rally" down to 5.5. 
Since this is still a long-term bull market, this is a blip in the radar, but it is important not to be caught unawares and go 10:1 long on the TV show or something.  It's time to cautiously short, folks.

wtf is going on right now? massive volatility out of nowhere?

BTC MY FRIEND, BTC...

6.34 then jump to 6.75 then jump back down to 6.23 and now 6.59. wow wtf?

damn mtgox, it won't execute my orders.

edit: took a while.

You must be new to Bitcoins

I believe the technical term is "a little price move" today.

This! ^^

But now it happened, I can safely go to bed.

Didn't really read the posts, but a similar picture was posted in a thread of mine before the collapse from around $10 down to $2. The graph was not right.

The long-term trendline has held... for now.  I will be staying out of the market for now -- it doesn't have a strong direction and I will be observing it.

Dosent have a strong direction.... ? Hmmmmm, you aint seen nothing yet..  BTO...

From what I see, market definately has a strong direction since middle of November:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=840&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2011-11-19&e=2012-01-15&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=EMA&m1=50&a2=EMA&m2=25&x=0&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

I don't see any problems.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

If you don't mind me asking, what indicators/signs are going to get you back in?

Breaking $7.20 barrier?  Going below latest support? Just curious... :)

Back to $1.1 million in cumulative bids again after taking a dip to $1,040,000.

Aka, buy buy buy! lmao..

Proudhon must be getting some action from the ladies lately... Such an optimist! I love it...

Well, I am long.

hahahahha, is that what your telling the ladies! ?  hahaha hilarious

I gotta try that, maybe some extra stuffing in my pants will sell the idea..

Below long-term trendline: Short
Above 7.2: Long

And one of these will happen very soon... within this week.  This is the biggest bullish wedge ever, and it'll be fun to watch, whichever way it goes.

Could you please draw the current wedge you think is active? I'm very interested in what you think :) Thanks!

Someone needs a ruler! :D

Fuzzy logic :D lol