Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: cypherdoc on January 18, 2012, 01:45:26 AM



Title: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: cypherdoc on January 18, 2012, 01:45:26 AM
i think the attack on Bitcoinica has begun. 

this type of volatility can't be good for Zhou.  at least not for his customers who are being liquidated.  no players; no money.

why hasn't he come forward to tell us what's going on?


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: Eveofwar on January 18, 2012, 01:45:52 AM
What 'attack' ?


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: ineededausername on January 18, 2012, 01:47:09 AM
what a joke..


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: ArsenShnurkov on January 18, 2012, 01:48:09 AM
double ** is when bitcoinica cant connect to mtgox api

I think, that Z should provide clear indication of connection problems (date, time and resolution status)

Might be he should implement service level agreements with mtgox,
automated link testing on different levels of network model,
and so on


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: zhoutong on January 18, 2012, 01:48:29 AM
i think the attack on Bitcoinica has begun. 

this type of volatility can't be good for Zhou.  at least not for his customers who are being liquidated.  no players; no money.

why hasn't he come forward to tell us what's going on?

Nothing is going on. The system handles everything perfectly (including your spamming orders).

The asterisk is due to Mt. Gox API unstability, if you place order it still should get executed in 15 seconds AT MOST.

I wonder why anyone would associate market volatility with Bitcoinica system instability. Why can't we build something better than Mt. Gox?


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: zhoutong on January 18, 2012, 01:49:35 AM
double ** is when bitcoinica cant connect to mtgox api

I think, that Z should provide clear indication of connection problems (date, time and resolution status)

It's intermittent. Usually it doesn't last more than 15 seconds. You can just place orders and you will be fine.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: SlaveInDebt on January 18, 2012, 01:49:40 AM
double ** is when bitcoinica cant connect to mtgox api

I think, that Z should provide clear indication of connection problems (date, time and resolution status)

As if anything will come of it.

double ** is when bitcoinica cant connect to mtgox api

I think, that Z should provide clear indication of connection problems (date, time and resolution status)

It's intermittent. Usually it doesn't last more than 15 seconds. You can just place orders and you will be fine.

Speak of the devil. Now burn GOX!

http://psalmsinpurgatory.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/pitchfork-mob1.jpg


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: cypherdoc on January 18, 2012, 01:49:45 AM
What 'attack' ?

i put forward a hypothesis a few weeks ago about how some big players would try to exploit the deficiencies in the Bitcoinica model which i think have become more apparent today.

if you can create a lot of volatility and * events, i think it will cost Zhou money in the end since any acct losses cost him money.  for sure, it is costing his customers who are now starting to walk away. 

no players; no fees.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: SkRRJyTC on January 18, 2012, 01:51:00 AM
15 seconds AT MOST.

The * has been on one side or the other EASILY 66% of the time over the LAST 2 DAYS.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: ArsenShnurkov on January 18, 2012, 01:51:07 AM
Why can't we build something better than Mt. Gox?

We already done that - we use DarkExchange on I2P


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: zhoutong on January 18, 2012, 01:52:06 AM
15 seconds AT MOST.

The * has been on one side or the other EASILY 66% of the time over the LAST 2 DAYS.

That's because of reserve problems, not connection.

We're considering getting short-term loans when this is happening, but it will take a while before we solve the compliance problems.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: Eveofwar on January 18, 2012, 01:52:43 AM
What 'attack' ?

i put forward a hypothesis a few weeks ago about how some big players would try to exploit the deficiencies in the Bitcoinica model which i think have become more apparent today.

if you can create a lot of volatility and * events, i think it will cost Zhou money in the end since any acct losses cost him money.  for sure, it is costing his customers who are now starting to walk away. 

no players; no fees.

Ah gotcha, thanks for the clarification.

Makes sense...force liquidations -> no new players =]


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: N12 on January 18, 2012, 01:53:00 AM
for sure, it is costing his customers who are now starting to walk away. 
I would seriously hope they are.

Anyone leaving more than a bit of lunch money on Bitcoinica after all that’s happened is either filthy rich or insane.

I think I can now agree with you that Bitcoinica has harmed Bitcoin as a whole, and is continuing to do so. It’s turning this thing into a pyramid scheme.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: zhoutong on January 18, 2012, 01:53:05 AM
Why can't we build something better than Mt. Gox?

We already done that - we use DarkExchange on I2P

I mean, OP assumes that Bitcoinica is a buggy system like Mt. Gox. And it's entirely possible that Bitcoinica hasn't been affected in this crash at all, systematically and financially.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: cypherdoc on January 18, 2012, 01:54:11 AM
Why can't we build something better than Mt. Gox?

We already done that - we use DarkExchange on I2P

I mean, OP assumes that Bitcoinica is a buggy system like Mt. Gox. And it's entirely possible that Bitcoinica hasn't been affected in this crash at all, systematically and financially.

then why do u need the short term loans?


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: zhoutong on January 18, 2012, 01:54:32 AM
for sure, it is costing his customers who are now starting to walk away. 
I would seriously hope they are.

Anyone leaving more than a bit of lunch money on Bitcoinica after all that’s happened is either filthy rich or insane.

I think I can now agree with you that Bitcoinica has harmed Bitcoin as a whole, and is continuing to do so. It’s turning this thing into a pyramid scheme.

Our biggest clients who trade on 2.5:1 leverage have been fine.

We will re-consider our 5:1 and 10:1 options soon.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: cypherdoc on January 18, 2012, 01:55:43 AM
for sure, it is costing his customers who are now starting to walk away.  
I would seriously hope they are.

Anyone leaving more than a bit of lunch money on Bitcoinica after all that’s happened is either filthy rich or insane.

I think I can now agree with you that Bitcoinica has harmed Bitcoin as a whole, and is continuing to do so. It’s turning this thing into a pyramid scheme.

Our biggest clients who trade on 2.5:1 leverage have been fine.

We will re-consider our 5:1 and 10:1 options soon.

i would hope so; for the sake of the community.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: zhoutong on January 18, 2012, 01:56:07 AM
Why can't we build something better than Mt. Gox?

We already done that - we use DarkExchange on I2P

I mean, OP assumes that Bitcoinica is a buggy system like Mt. Gox. And it's entirely possible that Bitcoinica hasn't been affected in this crash at all, systematically and financially.

then why do u need the short term loans?

Because we don't have reserves for some heavily leveraged users. We are absolutely solvent throughout the crash, and we made some small profits from the huge volume.

This has nothing to do with the crash. We had the asterisk since two days ago.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: zhoutong on January 18, 2012, 01:56:48 AM
bah and i was wondering when you go to 50:1 .....

When Bitcoin is at least $1000, I think 50:1 will be possible.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: SkRRJyTC on January 18, 2012, 01:57:46 AM
15 seconds AT MOST.

The * has been on one side or the other EASILY 66% of the time over the LAST 2 DAYS.

That's because of reserve problems, not connection.

We're considering getting short-term loans when this is happening, but it will take a while before we solve the compliance problems.

Why do you have reserve problems?  Why are you not making tons of money?

Hearing plans for loans is good but they shouldnt be necessary.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: gtabmx on January 18, 2012, 01:57:57 AM
for sure, it is costing his customers who are now starting to walk away.  
I would seriously hope they are.

Anyone leaving more than a bit of lunch money on Bitcoinica after all that’s happened is either filthy rich or insane.

I think I can now agree with you that Bitcoinica has harmed Bitcoin as a whole, and is continuing to do so. It’s turning this thing into a pyramid scheme.

Our biggest clients who trade on 2.5:1 leverage have been fine.

We will re-consider our 5:1 and 10:1 options soon.

i would hope so; for the sake of the community.

I'd rather the 5:1 option remain as I have been using it and have been very conservative with it and it has served me well. If people can't handle the leverage, then they deserve the loss. Don't penalize those (like me) who use leverage properly to take advantage of big dips or peaks and leave enough reserve to cover. 10:1 is crazy, but 5:1 is perfect for many.

-Mike


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: cypherdoc on January 18, 2012, 01:58:09 AM
Why can't we build something better than Mt. Gox?

We already done that - we use DarkExchange on I2P

I mean, OP assumes that Bitcoinica is a buggy system like Mt. Gox. And it's entirely possible that Bitcoinica hasn't been affected in this crash at all, systematically and financially.

then why do u need the short term loans?

Because we don't have reserves for some heavily leveraged users. We are absolutely solvent throughout the crash, and we made some small profits from the huge volume.

This has nothing to do with the crash. We had the asterisk since two days ago.

so some of your heavily leveraged longs couldn't sell during the crash and some of your heavily leveraged shorts couldn't cover during the ramp?


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: zhoutong on January 18, 2012, 02:01:12 AM
bah and i was wondering when you go to 50:1 .....

When Bitcoin is at least $1000, I think 50:1 will be possible.
bitcoin will never go there if users need a nanny when is money to be made there you will get big player to put the price up  at 50:1 u can shake things in a awesome way and also make money and money will bring in more players

If Bitcoin is $1000, it will be hard to "shake" things in terms of percentage. The volatility could be even less than gold's.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: barrymac on January 18, 2012, 02:09:16 AM
double ** is when bitcoinica cant connect to mtgox api

I think, that Z should provide clear indication of connection problems (date, time and resolution status)

As if anything will come of it.

double ** is when bitcoinica cant connect to mtgox api

I think, that Z should provide clear indication of connection problems (date, time and resolution status)

It's intermittent. Usually it doesn't last more than 15 seconds. You can just place orders and you will be fine.

Speak of the devil. Now burn GOX!

http://psalmsinpurgatory.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/pitchfork-mob1.jpg


Seriously plug it into other exchanges, do it! MtGox architecture can't handle itself at all, it always craps out when things get volatile!


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: Dutch Merganser on January 18, 2012, 02:12:21 AM
for sure, it is costing his customers who are now starting to walk away. 
I would seriously hope they are.

Anyone leaving more than a bit of lunch money on Bitcoinica after all that’s happened is either filthy rich or insane.


Ya think? Best post I've seen in a busy day. I made $0.03 today getting out of the way, good for me  :)


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: ArsenShnurkov on January 18, 2012, 02:16:44 AM
give I2p long url (was 512 bits no ?)

It's P2P client - https://github.com/macourtney/Dark-Exchange


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: zhoutong on January 18, 2012, 02:25:18 AM
Why can't we build something better than Mt. Gox?

We already done that - we use DarkExchange on I2P

I mean, OP assumes that Bitcoinica is a buggy system like Mt. Gox. And it's entirely possible that Bitcoinica hasn't been affected in this crash at all, systematically and financially.

then why do u need the short term loans?

Because we don't have reserves for some heavily leveraged users. We are absolutely solvent throughout the crash, and we made some small profits from the huge volume.

This has nothing to do with the crash. We had the asterisk since two days ago.

so some of your heavily leveraged longs couldn't sell during the crash and some of your heavily leveraged shorts couldn't cover during the ramp?

Your memory stays two weeks ago. Anyone with a position can close it or reduce it. There's no such state as "all trading stops" on Bitcoinica, except when the site is down.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: Dutch Merganser on January 18, 2012, 02:25:51 AM
for sure, it is costing his customers who are now starting to walk away. 
I would seriously hope they are.

Anyone leaving more than a bit of lunch money on Bitcoinica after all that’s happened is either filthy rich or insane.

I think I can now agree with you that Bitcoinica has harmed Bitcoin as a whole, and is continuing to do so. It’s turning this thing into a pyramid scheme.

Our biggest clients who trade on 2.5:1 leverage have been fine.

We will re-consider our 5:1 and 10:1 options soon.

All the asterisks recently made me think Bitcoinica might be getting slammed back and forth a bit on limited reserves, perhaps pressuring its ability to hedge as well. Reducing the leverage available would lessen that effect, wouldn't it?

Also, just to hear it from you, was there a connectivity issue involved at some point in the last day or two? If so did that ever result in liquidations or not?

Perhaps your could start a thread with a sticky that addresses all these questions that seem to be around? I imagine you are getting a lot of this right now.


Title: Re: The Dreaded Double **
Post by: cypherdoc on January 18, 2012, 02:27:11 AM

Because we don't have reserves for some heavily leveraged users.