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Title: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Joe200 on May 08, 2014, 04:36:31 PM Latest update: 2014-11-22. See below for history.
The spreadsheet extrapolation. Many people plot log price versus time, find the best fitting line, and extrapolate it. This is what they get: Code: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) R2 = 90%! This model MUST be correct. Add in the bias -- if this model is correct, we will be making 0.56% per day forever, compounded. Who doesn't like that. What others point out in response is that the trend cannot go on forever. Although, even if log price vs. time is an S-shaped curve, we really don't know where we are in that curve. If we are near the beginning of that curve, then the linear extrapolation is fine. Or are we further along? Even if we are near the beginning of the S-curve, there is another issue. OLS assumes that the residuals are independent of each other, which, in a time series, is clearly and completely false. And we should talk about confidence intervals as well, not just a point estimate. A better model. Here is a very basic model, the assumptions for which are actually not violated. I call it the Basic Long-Term Model (BLTM). Code: diff log price ~ Normal(mu, sigma) The difference in the log price, which is approximately the daily percent return, has a Normal distribution with mean mu and standard deviation sigma. Am I saying that this is the "true" correct model? No. This is a useful simplification and an improvement on the log price chart extrapolation. It's easy to perform these calculations, easy to explain, and easy to understand. The model does not take into account the fact that the model parameters -- mu and sigma -- cound change over time. That is simply outside the scope of this basic model. I am using all available data to estimate the parameters. Predictions. Here are the parameter estimates and the prediction of this simplistic model. Code: n.data from to mu sigma z.stat Code: n.fut date p_5 p_25 p_50 p_75 p_95 * In agreement with the log price chart extrapolation, overall, bitcoin has been making 0.56% per day. * According to the median scenario (p_50), we will hit 1,000 again sometime in early summer 2015. * According to the pessimistic scenario (p_5), we won't get back to 1,000 even in two years. * According to the optimistic scenario (p_95), we will break 10,000 by early fall 2015. * Just for fun -- projected price on 2014-12-31 is 438. Break-even point. If you buy today and thing go bad, how long will you have to hold to get your fiat back? Code: n.fut date p_5 p_25 p_50 p_75 p_95 388 days. Comments? History. * 2014-05-08 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.msg9593273#msg9593273) * 2014-06-26 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.msg7534658#msg7534658) * 2014-11-19 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.msg9627169#msg9627169) Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: jamesc760 on May 08, 2014, 05:37:12 PM Nice, Joe!
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: RockHound on May 09, 2014, 01:56:20 AM Cheers for the prediction and explanations. I currently have a large big order and waiting for the price to drop, but I hope your models will display a degree of accuracy and we hit $4890 this time next year.
Thanks again for post - Good effort! Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: CADguy on May 09, 2014, 11:29:37 AM sweet! could be handy
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: blatchcorn on May 09, 2014, 11:32:24 AM This post deserves more visibility
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: bitcoinsrus on May 09, 2014, 02:43:39 PM Great estimations.
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Toxic2040 on May 09, 2014, 03:48:10 PM Cheers for the prediction and explanations. Thanks again for post - Good effort! This post deserves more visibility Outstanding charting and mathematics. Thanks! Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: ozzke on May 09, 2014, 03:55:52 PM Great post and good math. The only thing I want to add to get this more "visibility" is that you should actually add some visual charts (graphs) to support your predictions
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Wilhelm on May 09, 2014, 11:58:18 PM 2016-05-08 p_95 me want :o :o ;D
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: bitcoinsrus on May 10, 2014, 12:11:59 AM 2016-05-08 p_95 me want :o :o ;D I was reading a few old threads (2012 ish i think) where price was 10-30. People said 1k would happen in 2016. No one mentioned 100 (which came shortly after). 1k happened 2013. Many people say 1-8k 2015. Not sure, lets see what happens 2015-2016. Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: NewLiberty on June 03, 2014, 01:17:16 PM 2016-05-08 p_95 me want :o :o ;D I was reading a few old threads (2012 ish i think) where price was 10-30. People said 1k would happen in 2016. No one mentioned 100 (which came shortly after). 1k happened 2013. Many people say 1-8k 2015. Not sure, lets see what happens 2015-2016. 100 and 1K were both in 2013, yes? Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: RAJSALLIN on June 03, 2014, 04:59:56 PM Interesting. Going to look into this when I have time.
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: greenlion on June 03, 2014, 06:12:24 PM 2016-05-08 p_95 me want :o :o ;D I was reading a few old threads (2012 ish i think) where price was 10-30. People said 1k would happen in 2016. No one mentioned 100 (which came shortly after). 1k happened 2013. Many people say 1-8k 2015. Not sure, lets see what happens 2015-2016. We don't even know what surprises are in store for last half 2014 even! Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Baitty on June 03, 2014, 06:13:31 PM Good and realistic predictions and if your predictions are correct then I'll be one happy man.
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: kdrop22 on June 23, 2014, 08:14:51 PM This post deserves more visibility.
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: blatchcorn on June 23, 2014, 08:25:22 PM This post deserves more visibility. I concur ;DTitle: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: oda.krell on June 23, 2014, 09:28:56 PM Of all the dubious log linear extrapolation models, the least dubious one.
(yes, I mean that as a compliment.) Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: IIOII on June 23, 2014, 11:35:54 PM Of all the dubious log linear extrapolation models, the least dubious one. (yes, I mean that as a compliment.) For sure. However I say chart-based extrapolation still doesn't work longterm. Extrapolation can't predict major mood changes of market participants or sudden events. Whatever type of extrapolation you use, it is always just projecting the main trend into the future. Such methods may work quite a long time, but suddenly they will fail. For better predictions you would have to monitor constantly the fundamentals that drive market mechanics (for example adoption rate, adoption pool (people likely to become adopters), transaction volume growth, businesses accepting btc). Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: oda.krell on June 24, 2014, 07:39:42 AM Of all the dubious log linear extrapolation models, the least dubious one. (yes, I mean that as a compliment.) For sure. However I say chart-based extrapolation still doesn't work longterm. Extrapolation can't predict major mood changes of market participants or sudden events. Whatever type of extrapolation you use, it is always just projecting the main trend into the future. Such methods may work quite a long time, but suddenly they will fail. For better predictions you would have to monitor constantly the fundamentals that drive market mechanics (for example adoption rate, adoption pool (people likely to become adopters), transaction volume growth, businesses accepting btc). Which is what gbianchi is doing in this thread... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=441336.0 ... modeling network growth (which is then related to price) based on zero balance addresses. However, Joe200's model is mathematically more mature. How about a collaboration? Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: spazzdla on June 24, 2014, 01:34:48 PM That P_50 has me hot and bothered.. let me take you out OP hehehe.
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: howardb on June 24, 2014, 03:05:32 PM That P_50 has me hot and bothered.. let me take you out OP hehehe. How about basing the predictions on real world money supply? Curiously, your answers are not that different!See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=646186.0 Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: spazzdla on June 24, 2014, 03:08:05 PM That P_50 has me hot and bothered.. let me take you out OP hehehe. How about basing the predictions on real world money supply? Curiously, your answers are not that different!See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=646186.0 Hum.. what? Are you trying to get me all excited as well? Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Joe200 on June 26, 2014, 08:43:00 PM tl;dr. Doing well so far. "Interesting times" possible in late January.
So far. How is this very simplistic model doing so far? Here is the projection of the model using the data up to 2014-05-08, which is when I posted the original projection. Code: n.data from to mu sigma cv You will note that this is slightly different than the original projection. The reason is that the price that I originally used on 2014-05-08 was not the correct price for that day, but the price at the time of the writing, which was slightly different. To make things more interesting, I am showing more percentiles. Under the original prediction, today, a full 47 days later, the median predicted price is 604. The 50% CI is 445 to 821. The actual price as I am writing this is 568. Well within the 50% CI, and pretty close to the median prediction. Not bad, if I do say so myself. ;-) Updated predictions. Same very simplistic model using the most current data. Code: n.data from to mu sigma cv mu, sigma, and cv are all down. Meaning, both expected return and volatility have adjusted down. These are very small changes, which is what you would expect since we only added a few new data points. Using the median outlook (p_50), we should finally break through 1k by late October. By late January, we should be at 2,270. According to my Peak/trough model (PTM) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610189.0), once we reach that price level, "the moon" (the next peak) should be less than a month away. According to the PTM prediction, which I have not updated recently, the peak should happen in mid-January. If I did update the PTM prediction, that would push the peak back -- how far I don't know, but at least to late January. In other words, the two models are making a similar prediction. Come late January, watch out, we might be blasting off (this model) or already on the moon (PTM). This assumes that the median outlook holds. Under a "poor" outlook (p_25), come late January, we will "only" be breaking above 1k. Not the moon, not the launchpad, but still a lot of excitement. About intervals. Look at the predictions again. Yes, these intervals are huge. I like to think of these as "honest intervals" (conditional on the model being a decent approximation of reality, which is a stretch). The intervals reflect the amount of uncertainty. There is a lot of uncertainty, especially the further out you go. These intervals help highlight that fact. Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Febo on June 26, 2014, 08:50:42 PM if BitCoin will be 1000 USD in 2016, is really good time to buy.
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: ajareselde on June 26, 2014, 09:19:57 PM if BitCoin will be 1000 USD in 2016, is really good time to buy. i believe that, if you are looking at 1-2 year terms, its a no-brainer that you will atleast double your earnings. problem is that alot of daytraders invaded bitcoin trading, keeping their profits in fiat, and reducing the money inflow. Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: ssmc2 on July 22, 2014, 05:58:56 PM Bump for awesomeness 8)
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Joe200 on November 19, 2014, 04:49:12 PM Just putting the original message here. I will now put the latest on the front page.
Tl;dr. Here are the price predictions for Bitstamp BTC/USD. Code: n.fut date p_5 p_50 p_95 p_50 is the median prediction, p_5 is the "pessimistic" prediction, and p_95 is the "optimistic" prediction. In a year, we could reasonably be at 10x where we are right now. Or, we could be still at where we are now. Read on for a discussion. The spreadsheet extrapolation. Many people plot log price versus time, find the best fitting line, and extrapolate it. This is what they get: Code: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) Look at this -- R2 = 90%! We are making 0.6% per day. No problem. What others point out in response is that the trend cannot go on forever. While the long-term curve could in fact be S-shaped, we could still be in the early part of it. The trend does appear to be increasing (log) linearly. So, in my view, that's not the real issue. The real issue is that OLS assumes that the residuals are independent of each other, which, in a time series, is clearly and completely false. And we should talk about confidence intervals as well, not just a point estimate. A better model. Here is a very simple / basic model, the assumptions for which are actually not violated. Code: diff log price ~ Normal(mu, sigma) Using all available data, we have Code: n.data from to mu sigma cv So yes, there has actually been a growth of 0.66% per day. But also look at the standard deviation. CV (the ratio of sigma / mu) is around 10 -- there is a lot of variation. More estimates. Are these parameters changing with time? Is mu perhaps drifting? Here are the historical values: Code: n.data from to mu sigma cv After the initial explosion (1.5% per day!), mu has been relatively stable - though it is not in its lower range. Sigma / volatility has declined too. Anyone have any other insights on this? But maybe the market is changing, which would mean that we should ignore old data. Here are estimates using only a year's worth of data. Code: n.data from to mu sigma cv In the past year, mu has been really low. CV is the second highest that it's ever been. -- But mu can't go any lower for now, right? Cuz we've bottomed out? Anyone has any thoughts on this table? Predictions. Predictions using all of the available data are at the top of the post. A year from now, the median prediction is $4,890 per coin. Meaning we could be at 10x of where we are. The pessimistic prediction is $489. I don't see how we just sit here for a year, but I guess it's possible. And the "to the moon" prediction? In 2 years, we could be at $$$ 2 million dollars $$$ per coin. :-) Ladies and gentlemen, hold on to your coinz. :-) What if the market has changed and we should be ignoring the early days? Interestingly enough, the parameters in the past 2 years are almost the same as the parameters that use all of the data. Code: n.data from to mu sigma cv And so the prediction using the past 2 years of data is very similar to the prediction that uses all the data. Code: n.fut date p_5 p_50 p_95 In a year, we are still at either 10x or, if things go bad, at the same price as now. In 2 years, "to the moon" is $1.4 mil instead of $1.9 mil. Break-even point. If you buy today and thing go bad, how long will you have to hold to get your fiat back? Here is a prediction using all of the data: Code: n.fut date p_5 p_50 p_95 331 days -- less than a year. So keep buying. :-) Buy coins, come back a year later, and you will very likely have made a profit. Thoughts, comments, suggestions, criticisms are very much appreciated. Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Joe200 on November 19, 2014, 04:58:27 PM See update on the front page.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.0 Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Trolololo on November 21, 2014, 02:49:23 AM Interesting approach and data.
Congratulations! Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: oda.krell on November 22, 2014, 12:53:05 AM Thanks for the update, Joe200. Pleasure to read, as before.
I notice you're changing the approach a bit: first time, you used all available data for the estimates, now you're using a half year/one year period preceding the time of calculation, and see how the parameters change over time. Correct so far? Don't get this the wrong way, it's not meant to be a criticism of your attempt to model price, but I do find it interesting that it looks to me like you are getting closer to some of the considerations that drive technical analysts. What I mean is this: you started (some months ago) by looking at the entire available data for your estimates. Turns out, at any point in time, this can lead to wildly unreliable predictions (especially if the preceding period saw a huge price increase or decrease). Now you're breaking down the data into smaller chunks, and try to see how the parameters change over time. The next logical step seems to be to start varying the history size, and try to see if the parameters change in some systematic way in the past, i.e. if there's some pattern to how they change over time. Sorry to say it, but you're one of us now :D Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: blatchcorn on November 22, 2014, 02:13:11 PM Thanks for the update, Joe200. Pleasure to read, as before. At lot of the analysis around here is shaped by personal opinions.I notice you're changing the approach a bit: first time, you used all available data for the estimates, now you're using a half year/one year period preceding the time of calculation, and see how the parameters change over time. Correct so far? Don't get this the wrong way, it's not meant to be a criticism of your attempt to model price, but I do find it interesting that it looks to me like you are getting closer to some of the considerations that drive technical analysts. What I mean is this: you started (some months ago) by looking at the entire available data for your estimates. Turns out, at any point in time, this can lead to wildly unreliable predictions (especially if the preceding period saw a huge price increase or decrease). Now you're breaking down the data into smaller chunks, and try to see how the parameters change over time. The next logical step seems to be to start varying the history size, and try to see if the parameters change in some systematic way in the past, i.e. if there's some pattern to how they change over time. Sorry to say it, but you're one of us now :D Still, I hope he is right! Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: oda.krell on November 22, 2014, 02:50:37 PM ... At lot of the analysis around here is shaped by personal opinions.Still, I hope he is right! Maybe I didn't phrase it very clearly. What I tried to say wasn't that his analysis is biased or subjective, but that the way he is adjusting/refining his model reminds of the path that one takes when attempting to trade the market based on ("traditional") technical analysis. 'Pattern finding', as opposed to the more rigorous, but maybe also rather futile attempt to do purely quantitative forecasting. It's not a black/white distinction, just what his updated model suddenly made me think of. Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Joe200 on November 23, 2014, 03:17:47 AM Thanks for the update, Joe200. Pleasure to read, as before. I notice you're changing the approach a bit: first time, you used all available data for the estimates, now you're using a half year/one year period preceding the time of calculation, and see how the parameters change over time. Correct so far? Don't get this the wrong way, it's not meant to be a criticism of your attempt to model price, but I do find it interesting that it looks to me like you are getting closer to some of the considerations that drive technical analysts. What I mean is this: you started (some months ago) by looking at the entire available data for your estimates. Turns out, at any point in time, this can lead to wildly unreliable predictions (especially if the preceding period saw a huge price increase or decrease). Now you're breaking down the data into smaller chunks, and try to see how the parameters change over time. The next logical step seems to be to start varying the history size, and try to see if the parameters change in some systematic way in the past, i.e. if there's some pattern to how they change over time. Sorry to say it, but you're one of us now :D Oda, You are right. :D ::) :'( I always knew that the parameters changing over time could become an issue, I just didn't know how to deal with it, and still don't. When I made my original post, I got lucky -- the parameter estimates using all of the data were very close to the parameter estimates using just the most recent 2 years of data. I waved my hands and pretended like the parameters don't change over time, and gave my predictions. This time around, we are in the longest bear market ever (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=676333). The parameter estimates using all the data are quite different from the parameter estimates using the most recent data. This gave me pause. After thinking about this for a couple of days, here is what I decided. I am not going to develop the One True Model of Bitcoin Price(TM) in one simple post. The original purpose of this thread was simply to explain that the linear extrapolation on the log-price chart that so many people do is complete nonsense, and to give a model that's similar in spirit but that's more sound. The name of the model is the Basic Long-Term Model. Nothing more. This model is indeed an improvement on the log-price chart extrapolation. It might not be a very good model, but that, in a sense, is not the point. So I've decided that, in this thread, I will just keep using all available data. It's easy to do, easy to explain, and easy to understand. This is not the One True Model of Bitcoin Price(TM). I have other threads with other models. I hope that each one contributes something. Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Joe200 on November 23, 2014, 03:26:56 AM Maybe I didn't phrase it very clearly. What I tried to say wasn't that his analysis is biased or subjective, but that the way he is adjusting/refining his model reminds of the path that one takes when attempting to trade the market based on ("traditional") technical analysis. 'Pattern finding', as opposed to the more rigorous, but maybe also rather futile attempt to do purely quantitative forecasting. It's not a black/white distinction, just what his updated model suddenly made me think of. I am a big believer in the basic axiom of technical analysis, though I think that the actual tools of technical analysis are all voodoo. The axiom is that what people think is "fundamentals" is actually driven by price. "News X just happened, the price should go up, and here it is going up." WRONG. This is your interpretation of News X in a bull market. In a bear market, you would probably not even notice News X. And if you do, you interpret its influence on price differently. This same thing started happening to me in this thread. My biases came into it. When I believed that the price would recover quickly, I said, let's just use all the data to estimate the parameters. Now, with the longest bear market to date, I am scared. My mind is playing tricks on me. My model seems objective. But how I choose to construct the model is subjective. And my views are influenced by the price. Price action is driving something that's seemingly objective. As I explained in the last post, I will just use all the data in this thread. Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Joe200 on November 23, 2014, 03:55:27 AM This is the post from 2014-11-19.
(I am copying the original message to here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.msg9593273#msg9593273). This page will have the latest.) The spreadsheet extrapolation. Many people plot log price versus time, find the best fitting line, and extrapolate it. This is what they get: Code: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) R2 = 90%! This model MUST be correct. Add in the bias -- if this model is correct, we will be making 0.57% per day forever. Who doesn't like that. What others point out in response is that the trend cannot go on forever. Although, even if log price vs. time is an S-shaped curve, we really don't know where we are in that curve. If we near the beginning of that curve, then the linear extrapolation is fine. Or are we further along? Even if we are near the beginning of the S-curve, there is another issue. OLS assumes that the residuals are independent of each other, which, in a time series, is clearly and completely false. And we should talk about confidence intervals as well, not just a point estimate. A better model. Here is a very basic model, the assumptions for which are actually not violated. Code: diff log price ~ Normal(mu, sigma) The difference in the log price, which is approximately the daily percent return, has a Normal distribution with mean mu and standard deviation sigma. Am I saying that this is the "true" correct model? No. This is a useful simplification. Assuming that mu and sigma could change over time, this model does not take that into account. We would have to decide outside of the model how much data to use to estimate the current mu and sigma. Let's look at estimates of mu and sigma based on half year and one year chunks of data. Code: n.data from to mu sigma z.stat diff.mu diff.sd diff.z Code: n.data from to mu sigma z.stat diff.mu diff.sd diff.z A lot of information here. What do you see? Here is what jumps out at me. * Yearly chunks of data. This past year had a negative return, for the first time ever. This is disturbing for HODLers. * Half year chunks of data. This past half year had a negative return. The only other time with a negative return was 2011-05-11 to 2011-11-14. That's when the most giant crash so far happened -- from 2011-06-09 / 29.6 to 2011-11-18 / 2.14, a loss of 92.8%. * Interestingly, with the current negative return, sigma (volatility) is also small. Also interestingly, during the 2011-05-11 to 2011-11-14 period, volatility did not decrease. What do you think this all means? We have to think a lot more carefully about how much data to use to make the estimates. The projections into the future are pretty straightforward, if we have good estimates of the parameters. Ideas welcome. History. * 2014-05-08 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.msg9593273#msg9593273) * 2014-06-26 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.msg7534658#msg7534658) Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Joe200 on November 23, 2014, 04:01:33 AM Posted an update on the main page.
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: oda.krell on November 23, 2014, 01:44:03 PM @Joe200
Good decision, imo (to "fix" the model as using the entire history, and see what you get doing so). I've said it before (somewhere on page 1 iirc), but your model is one of the more, maybe the most, mathematically mature of the long-term models, if for no other reason that you provide interval estimates. This model, like the others, still suffers from the obvious problem of changing parameters, but then again, the more accurate you'd like to get in your market predictions the narrower your predictive time frame has to get presumably, so maybe that's the trade-off that we have to accept: Your model does make a prediction into far future, but will either have a high error rate at times (using the "median scenario" as a point estimate), or imprecise (using the entire interval range). There are probably more precise, less error prone ways to look at the market, but you'd be happy if you can predict 2 days into the future with them. So, apples and oranges. Not sure I agree with your assessment that it's all voodoo/cargo cult what technical analysis is doing, but happy to hear we're not disagreeing on the basic premise itself, which is surprisingly common in here: whether prediction (based on past market data) is possible in principle, or whether some absolute interpretation of fundamentals aka "the news" determines price. (I say "surprisingly common", because I always wonder what people that don't believe prediction is possible even do in a speculation forum. Complain about the unpredictability of the markets, I guess :D) Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Joe200 on November 25, 2014, 05:07:18 PM What technical analysis tools do you use? I am curious.
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: oda.krell on November 25, 2014, 05:42:18 PM What technical analysis tools do you use? I am curious. No easy answer to that question. Probably makes more sense to describe my two big meta-strategies, and then fill in some of the details: trend following based on momentum, and mean reversion based on clearly identifiable outliers. Not very original, I know. For the momentum trades, the basis is usually price (close, high, low, sometimes hl2) in relation to some averages (either simple moving averages, which shouldn't work, but does, or more commonly, averages with some form of exponential smoothing). Plus divergences on the conventional indicators (like MACD or RSI). And finally: volume analysis (in relation to price, and over time). Extremely important factor in this market, in my opinion. The mean reversion decisions are a bit more complicated, but price in relation to some average is the basis for that as well, though picking up additional clues (like the divergences mentioned above) becomes more important unless I want to enter deeply unprofitable trades. Trading frequency I aim for is once every few weeks, possibly months. In summary, discretionary swing/position trading, with some amount of algorithmic input and backtesting from experimental methods or indicators. Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: mskryxz on November 26, 2014, 09:40:14 PM Pretty accurate.
We're floating around 366 and it's predicted 366 for P50 Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: coinableS on November 26, 2014, 10:02:58 PM How have I never noticed this post before? Very interesting, will save a check back frequently.
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: adpinbr on December 15, 2014, 10:51:54 PM following
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: 600watt on December 16, 2014, 07:29:19 AM interesting... unfortunately, price is still behind :-\
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: exocytosis on December 16, 2014, 07:36:48 AM * Just for fun -- projected price on 2014-12-31 is 438. Quoted for future reference. We'll see in a couple of weeks. Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: jaredboice on December 16, 2014, 02:56:34 PM exocytosis: "This user is currently ignored.: :D
Title: Re: Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions Post by: Driv3n on February 23, 2015, 04:58:33 AM Any plans to update the model in the near future? Interested to see how it looks now that its been 3 months from the last update.
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