Bitcoin Forum

I've been trawling and have turned up some interesting techniques for calculating various values, most offer the ability to calc the solo mining return, or the time to solve a block.

I am trying to calculate the daily return with known hashrate and difficulty. Appreciate any helpful input.

A convenient way is go to

http://blockexplorer.com/q/probability

That webservices link returns the probability of any given hash being successful based on the current difficulty.

Your hashrate expressed as hashes/s multiplied by 86400 seconds in a day tells you how many tries you get to solve a block every day.

If we call those P and H, based on the expected value theorem your average BTC income per day (not counting tx fees or pool fees, which could be estimated in if desired) --

P * H * 86400 * 25

P * H * 86400 itself basically tells you what fraction of a block on average per day you would win

To show you a real world example...

I have 400GH/s mining BTC.  Therefore, at current difficulty of 8,853,416,309 the formula is:

Difficulty * 2**32 / hashrate / 86400 = number of days to solve a block

So...

8,853,416,309 * 2**32 / 400000000000 / 86400 = 1100.26427966

This means that I can expect to earn 25BTC just about every 3 years.  To find out how much per day, you just take 25 and divide it by the number of days expected to solve the block:

25/1100.26427966 = 0.02272181BTC per day.

Hope this helps!

WOW - perfect, exactly what I was after - thank you both so much!

This is exactly what I've been looking for, but does this formula apply to all coins?

I mean if you change the coins per block will it apply to both sha and scrypt? Or does the 2**32 need to be changed for other coins too?

i dont calculate
i pray...  :D

for me, i'm using calculator, like from alloscomp or bitwisdom
its just a theory, not the exact number, only luck can help you  ;D