Bitcoin Forum

So this is just going to be a constant roller coaster ?

The joke is that there are completely automatic trading strategies that can make money every oscillation. Sooner or later the "smart money" will start trading those strategies, and then the "big money", and then the sine wave will start to lose some amplitude due to those strategies trading against the wind.

Or at least that's the theory. Maybe there's just not enough smart money to actually make the market smart.

If I can just hold out until we get to "Despair" for the imminent rally...

Back to...$5?

Not sure what the price will be then, but I will certainly sense despair...

Despair: the emotion of hope?

I think the call for pessimism is premature.

Would venture to say we are halfway between unease and denial... like in the Housing Market.

ill agree with that i wasn't sure if the semi permanent starfish was a denial indicator

If we managed to hit $5, it just might go well into the $4's. The depth is pretty thin below $5.

We have these cycles all the time, most of them are small, some of them are medium sized and then we have the rare large ones. The last large one happened from May to December, or something like that.

I don't personally care about what is happening right now, we're in the middle of a small cycle or at best (or at worst, depends on who you're asking) a medium sized one. A medium sized correction is very possible, I knew one was coming at some point but didn't know when, this could be it. Nothing fundamental has happened that would indicate a larger issue so a large cycle can be counted out.

Most likely it's simply a short term game based on pure speculation, people see an opportunity to go down and then they sell and short. A large majority of that money is coming back, simply a little lower. Eventually we reach the point where it'll go up again.

I also believe that the reports on technical analysis given by popular analysts such as S3052 have a significant effect in themselves. This is information that people believe in and thus it's heavily exploited and this is why those reports tend to cause the behaviour they are "predicting". Same applies to the information people get from Bitcoinica, it's exploited all the time.

A good example is the recent public report by S3052 that stated:

"4) A break below 6 - 6.1 $ is expected to lead to further downside down to 4.64 $."

Guess what happened right after, the price was pushed down below $6, mainly because people were either exploiting this statement or believing that someone else will exploit the statement anyway, so the price went down.

After $6 broke it was obvious that a larger dip is imminent. Now it's hard to say what happens, if people are as sheep as I fear they are, it's totally possible that we'll go as low as $4.64. Personally I have one word for all of this and that is:

Bullshit.

No one at all sees the interestingly similar slopes/duration on a log chart that this rally/correction has/will have with the March rally/correction?

I predict a steady price decay in the next month, during which all the bears will be screaming "I TOLD YOU." 

No, what I'm saying is that after this correction, we might rally back to $5.

Insert comedic drum roll here...

I found the manipulator...

http://starphoenixbase.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/nz051.jpg

 ;) :-*

of course, left unsaid is what comes after that ;D

Triple digits coming THIS YEAR to a market near you!

Daytraders: Go long, hourly RSI just reached <30
Short-mid term: Go short
Long term investors: Go long

I think your on the ball

No point in over-thinking it.

Last week we bumped down 50 cents then traded sideways forever at $6.30.

Looks like were just repeating, down 50 cents. Trading sideways this time at ... what? $5.70, $5.80?

Drifting, drifting... how about now... pessimism now....??

Orders all the way down baby, they are filling nicely... The deeper we go the bigger the order!

I have already told myself I will not panic however low it goes. My lowest order is around 14 cents a coin. I doubt it will go that low but who knows!


Still long term bullish, just patiently accumulating on dips...

At 14 cents.. the game is over..

At 14 cents, everyone will indeed think its over. I think it probably will be. If it is, I lose money that I have already written off. If it isn't I have bagged a truckload of coin ready for round 2!

I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago.  However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.

Poof.

Grab a sandwich and a drink for the ride down! lmao

I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe.

Ugh, it makes me sick to think we're going to test those levels again.  With more bitcoins for sale on the orderbook than before, I'd be worried the price wouldn't rebound and even more people would feel the same and abandon ship.  I feel like the project was just beginning to get some credibility back and if that happens...well, it won't be good for bitcoin.  We speculators are ruining this project.  I'm a part of that, as much as I hate to admit it.

Conversely, if bitcoin is seen to have survived the effects of rampant speculation, that would be a big plus.

I was thinking it might stabilize at $4.5 - $4.80, (Jan 4th trading range)

The dips aren't what is killing the credibility, it the stupid rallies! (alhough they are kind of fun!)

High time we had a chart with arbitrary line...

https://i.imgur.com/Viv7z.png

If growth proceeded in a steady fashion then *that* would be credible, but the whole crowd keeps piling in and then subsequently losing there shirt.

Really the 'actual' line could be anywhere I just picked one for effect, but the point is that the price shouldn't be fluctuating so wildly around it. If it didn't keep taking off so wildly then it wouldn't have to keep correcting.

This is nothing new though, look at any equity chart of a steadily growing company and you see the gyrations of human craziness messing with what should be a fairly smooth increase in valuation.

Sure.  But that it will survive isn't a foregone conclusion.  The project needs a killer app.  Without one, there's no reason for wider adoption and, thus, no reason for the price to increase and stabilize.  This goes back to the chicken egg problem.  Why should more people adopt bitcoin besides people interested in speculation (the vast majority of the population isn't going to sit around and watch the price, or code a bot, or use bitcoinica for stop and limit orders)?  And, why should merchants more fully support bitcoin without wider adoption?  

So you're cost-averaging your way to cheap bitcoins... where is the point of no return?

I agree with you.  The run up to $32 is the most damaging thing to have happened to the project.

http://i39.tinypic.com/25j9wk8.png

The long term uptrend (green line) is still intact with room to spare. With the red line at the 7.20-7.22 tops, it is possible to interpret this as a huge ascending triangle. Do you think a breakout might lead to a huge rally? I'm not sure. Let's just hope the uptrend holds :)

When I run out of (play) money, are the whole of bitcoin fades to dust. If you are buying BTC with money you can't afford to lose then you are doing it wrong! (imho)

I am still hoping for thousands per coin ;) ( a guy can dream eh).

Knoing my luck I'll get it but it will be largely due to hyperinflation on the USD heheh.

+1

Very close to my situation and philosophy.  I've (hopefully) got some money at my exchange which was earmarked for some more buying in the sub-$2.00 range, but that did not happen last time.  It looks like such a PITA to pull out that I've written it off as well as what I've already put into BTC.  I'll happily deploy it if we take another deep dive though.

I am 'pessimistic' that we'll get another dive which would bring the price down to where I want to see it.  This, in part, because the point when the production rate gets cut in half is starting to become visible on the horizon.

yeah, it's all play money here for me too. If bitcoin ever got down to $2 again,I would buy a thousand for shits and giggles.

what proudhon says

Patience is the key. Bitcoinica orders are all filling in nicely. I sense a distinct speculation forum mood change... I wonder how far down we'll go... I wonder if I have orders low enough :)

Oooohhh, scary.

Is there any reading material related to this cycle?  How often do markets break this cycle?

It's more of an indication of how crowd mentality works. How you interpret the effect on price is anybody's guess!

lol. nothing to sense at my place after a 40% drop. was forced out with a 90% loss.

idk. now comes the time of depression and having the urge to tell everybody?!
and then, when prices rise a bit, i shall beginn to feel hopefull again?! - sorry bros, but you kind of scared me away the hard way by droping prices like mad, putting up fakewalls like mad, following FUD like mad  :'(

the emotion of losing money!!!!!