Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: gewure on January 27, 2012, 09:27:44 PM



Title: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on January 27, 2012, 09:27:44 PM
i thought about making it 100% open and visible to everybody, so now i try it.
i will post every day or so my position (if i have one) at bitcoinica.

he were go, status quo as yesterday:

BTCUSD   111.0   $5.8024   -$57.88   -8.987%   


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: BadBear on January 27, 2012, 09:28:59 PM
Leverage too?


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on January 27, 2012, 09:31:02 PM
yes, if you want..here it is:


Margin Balance   $137.93
Tradable Balance   $110.66
Leverage   10.0 : 1
Unrealized P/L   -$62.45
Net Value?   $75.47
Maintenance?   $25.76


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on January 27, 2012, 09:31:58 PM
im dancing on a heavy leveraged knife at the moment :)  :o :-X ;)


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: M4v3R on January 27, 2012, 09:36:59 PM
Are you aware that if price goes down to $4.8 you'll get screwed on this?


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: RicePicker on January 27, 2012, 09:39:21 PM
BTCUSD    52.0    $5.8549    -$29.89    -9.816%

Margin Balance   $147.84
Tradable Balance   -$9.56
Leverage   2.5 : 1
Unrealized P/L   -$29.89
Net Value?   $117.96
Maintenance?   $12.18  ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: Oldminer on January 27, 2012, 10:52:01 PM
Are you aware that if price goes down to $4.8 you'll get screwed on this?

+1

He's a braver man than me


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: trogdorjw73 on January 27, 2012, 11:25:31 PM
Maybe he's really short at the moment and is hoping to push the price lower as someone tries to "liquidate" him? LOL


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: notme on January 27, 2012, 11:39:30 PM
Maybe he's really short at the moment and is hoping to push the price lower as someone tries to "liquidate" him? LOL

Maybe his position is so small it would take way more to liquidate him then you could gain from it.  Not to mention the lack of starfish that indicates all it would take to save him is for a bull to decide to buy.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: BadBear on January 28, 2012, 12:09:25 AM
Ouch, well it's always a gamble. Go big or go home.

Maybe he's really short at the moment and is hoping to push the price lower as someone tries to "liquidate" him? LOL

http://i.imgur.com/wk5ek.gif


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on January 28, 2012, 06:10:38 AM
lol

its just my position


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: RicePicker on January 28, 2012, 07:13:56 PM
So much for everyone telling us to liquidate.  ;D


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: YoYa on January 28, 2012, 07:17:08 PM
So much for everyone telling us to liquidate.  ;D

True, patience does help :)

But I learned to my cost that too much patience can burn. I'd recommend defensive play where you avoid these pickles in the first place. Define your stop-loss.....ALWAYS.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: stochastic on January 28, 2012, 07:40:28 PM
yes, if you want..here it is:


Margin Balance   $137.93
Tradable Balance   $110.66
Leverage   10.0 : 1
Unrealized P/L   -$62.45
Net Value?   $75.47
Maintenance?   $25.76


Money management is really important.  I trade like I am going to the casino.  At the casino I don't walk in and put all my chips on 13 on the roulette table.  I portion it out.  If I have $300, I divide that into $100 chunks.  But I don't bet that whole $100 at one time.  I go to the craps table, place the minimum bets on the best odds that I can get.  If I lose a round, I have reserves to back up.  With my winnings I put them in my pocket and don't re-bet those.

Do the same thing with trading.  In this hopefully you have some indicators that tell you when to go long or to go short.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on January 29, 2012, 01:29:42 AM
everything i have on bitcoinica has been previously won. if i get zhoutonged (which i think is unlikely, maybe 30% chance) i have lost my whole invest, yes.

BTCUSD   111.0   $5.8024   -$24.62   -3.822%


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: Oldminer on January 29, 2012, 11:30:54 PM
Well it looks like (with the price coming down) I managed to stay solvent longer than the market remained irrational  

Wait... ;D


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on January 30, 2012, 01:23:38 PM
Well it looks like (with the price coming down) I managed to stay solvent longer than the market remained irrational  

Wait... ;D

:D exáctément mon ami!

the price was not supposed to drop to this level without going higher afterwards :>

there_are_no_orders_in_my_orderbook_that_mean_loss

..only temporarily no winning :) never forget: market coordinates TIME and INTEREST. its just a matter of time.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: Oldminer on January 30, 2012, 10:13:08 PM

the price was not supposed to drop to this level without going higher afterwards

LOL...what the hell does that mean? They were not supposed to?


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on January 30, 2012, 10:22:55 PM
i'm beeing ironic..

i had buy-orders all across from 6.2 to 5.0, and now im stuck waiting for prices higher than 5.8


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 01, 2012, 09:37:30 PM
BTCUSD   90.0   $5.7512   $4.08   0.789%

market now behaves again as it should behave  ;)


[EDIT]

CURRENCY ACCOUNT
USD   $8.78625
BTC   ฿24.61719714
TRADING ACCOUNT
Margin Balance   $154.19
Tradable Balance   $1,164.24
Leverage   10.0 : 1
Unrealized P/L   $13.99
Net Value?   $168.19
Maintenance?   $20.70


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 03, 2012, 10:53:00 PM
sold some 31 pseudo coins

BTCUSD   80.0   $5.7276   $14.44   3.152%

CURRENCY ACCOUNT
USD                           $8.78625
BTC                           ฿24.61719714

TRADING ACCOUNT
Margin Balance          $154.23
Tradable Balance          $1,228.50
Leverage                  10.0 : 1
Unrealized P/L          $14.44
Net Value?                  $168.67
Maintenance?          $18.33


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 05, 2012, 05:18:34 PM
nothing changed, exept that my unrealized winning turned into a unrealized loss.

BTCUSD   80.0   $5.7276   -$12.15   -2.651%

[EDIT]
Calculated Zhoutonging-Price:

4.141089


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 09, 2012, 09:07:09 PM
i'm green again

BTCUSD   80.0   $5.7276   $5.46   1.191%



Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 10, 2012, 10:50:34 PM
OMG I SOLD

SELL SELL SELL SELL SEL!!

..2 coins  :D

BTCUSD   78.0   $5.7228   $15.18   3.401%


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: deepceleron on February 11, 2012, 03:44:59 AM
Money management is really important.  I trade like I am going to the casino.  At the casino I don't walk in and put all my chips on 13 on the roulette table.  I portion it out.  If I have $300, I divide that into $100 chunks.  But I don't bet that whole $100 at one time.  I go to the craps table, place the minimum bets on the best odds that I can get.  If I lose a round, I have reserves to back up.  With my winnings I put them in my pocket and don't re-bet those.
Funny, that's exactly what I do. Put down that $300 on 13, and you have a 1 in 37 chance of leaving with $10,800. Bet $5 over and over again until you either lose all your money or you get above $10,800, your odds are far higher that you lose all your money. Plus it's a big waste of your time with little entertainment value.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 13, 2012, 04:34:17 PM
BTCUSD   79.0   $5.7160   -$24.70   -5.469%   -$0.07

red red wine


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 03:25:40 AM
BTCUSD   103.0   $5.5994   -$73.16   -12.685%   -$0.17

im dancing bull limbo of death - how low can you go?(without getting zhoutonged)

[edit]

some call it cathing the falling knife; lately i think i aquired some skills in doing so, without getting hurt. downtrends end, when the knifes are falling the fastest.



Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: adamstgBit on February 14, 2012, 03:34:47 AM
BTCUSD   103.0   $5.5994   -$73.16   -12.685%   -$0.17

im dancing bull limbo of death - how low can you go?(without getting zhoutonged)



idk like 5-10%?

your so getting zhoutonged :-[


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 04:23:35 AM
BTCUSD   110.0   $5.5558   -$79.35   -12.984%   -$0.17

i deposited more btc in order to do better risk management. my observations on the market -still- tell me this correction from 7.2 will be over very soon. meanwhile i catch the knifes low. see you at >5.5$


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: Oldminer on February 14, 2012, 05:19:52 AM
BTCUSD   79.0   $5.7160   -$24.70   -5.469%   -$0.07

red red wine

 ;D


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 04:34:18 PM
zhoutonged @ 4.375 :(  :-X

-27 BTC

.(

seriously.. from 6 to 4.2 in 4 days?!  - 42% ?! either we are all zhoutonged or your ppl are panicing.

anyway, my precious speculation basis is gone. feels like the drop from 3 to 2. :(


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: M4v3R on February 14, 2012, 04:55:43 PM
I told you this position was dangerous back in January...  :-\


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 05:01:50 PM
i knew it was.

i just didn't calculate such a massiv drop into the calculation. also partly cause of (i suspect s3032 manipulation) super bullish candle out of the nowhere, invalidating the downtrend and supporting my position.

also i underestimated the panic selling. truely, ppl are like mad sheep. if it drops 20% they shit themselfs and sell until it drops another 20%.
i was on the brave losers side. could have taken prices up to $4.4 - but $4.3 was to much.

bad day for me, bad day for bitcoin.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: sgbett on February 14, 2012, 05:05:47 PM
i just didn't calculate such a massiv drop into the calculation.

If you are going to 'trade' bitcoin then you should start from a position of assuming there is going to be a massive drop/spike and work from there imho.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 05:12:10 PM
look at my historic positions: i was suspecting a  short-term movement above 6.2 and a sideway trend. happened, but i wanted it to go higher, cause it looked like a correction with a double bottom at 5.5 and 5.2 at that time. both have been broken HARD the last 4 days. people panic selling even more ... well you know the story.

i would have been fine until 4.4 .. but this volatility is to much. to much manipulation in the market, to much herd movement, to much 'random noise'.



Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 05:26:33 PM
sry, i forgot. my position after the zhoutong:

BTCUSD   12.9   $4.3276   $3.44   6.161%   -$0.01[/color]

how i am feeling:

http://pactoregon.org/Images/PA-KidsGamb-3.jpg


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: waspoza on February 14, 2012, 05:46:09 PM
sry, i forgot. my position after the zhoutong:

BTCUSD   12.9   $4.3276   $3.44   6.161%   -$0.01


What is your new zhoutong price? Because if u used leverage, you may get owned again.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 06:12:47 PM
sry, i forgot. my position after the zhoutong:

BTCUSD   12.9   $4.3276   $3.44   6.161%   -$0.01


What is your new zhoutong price? Because if u used leverage, you may get owned again.

:D

5 minutes before you posted i sold most of the coins.

[edit]
net loss was 87%[/color] of 32 bitcoins.

CURRENCY ACCOUNT
USD   $2.95832
BTC   ฿3.50739005
TRADING ACCOUNT
Margin Balance   $19.19
Tradable Balance   $191.89
Leverage   10.0 : 1
Unrealized P/L   $0.00
Unrealized Swap   $0.00
Net Value   $19.19
Maintenance   $0.00


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: waspoza on February 14, 2012, 06:38:41 PM
sry, i forgot. my position after the zhoutong:

BTCUSD   12.9   $4.3276   $3.44   6.161%   -$0.01


What is your new zhoutong price? Because if u used leverage, you may get owned again.

:D

5 minutes before you posted i sold most of the coins.

Good move. Its too dangerous to go on leverage when couple of guys can shake the market. Bitcoin needs to be way bigger for it to be safe.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 06:44:01 PM
yeah, 87% loss, nice move  :D

really, i have no idea if the price goes up or down at the moment


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 08:19:43 PM
BTCUSD   -2.0   $4.7449   -$0.06   -0.644%   $0.00

lol


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: M4v3R on February 14, 2012, 08:36:25 PM
Gewure gone short. The hell must've frozen.

Just kiddin' :). Good call on that one, though I'd make this position bigger. You're already in the green with it.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 14, 2012, 09:05:06 PM
BTCUSD   -12.0   $4.5697   -$0.75   -1.368%   $0.00


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: Oldminer on February 14, 2012, 09:45:06 PM
BTCUSD   -12.0   $4.5697   -$0.75   -1.368%   $0.00

Relax gewure, its all gonna come good. Just make sure you SELL & take your profits!


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: Vandroiy on February 14, 2012, 11:38:38 PM
also i underestimated the panic selling. truely, ppl are like mad sheep. if it drops 20% they shit themselfs and sell until it drops another 20%.
i was on the brave losers side. could have taken prices up to $4.4 - but $4.3 was to much.

The final drops didn't look like panic selling, but like Bitcoinica executing liquidations of people who traded just this way. Surely there was panic selling as well, but the margin longs certainly amplified the crash. Face it, it was this exact trading strategy that brought its own downfall.

It's fairly evident in the price curve after it broke 4.8, that just didn't look like a typical panic-crash. Bitcoinica may have a better execution algorithm for the liquidations now, but it's still essentially the same effect.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 15, 2012, 09:56:56 PM
BTCUSD   -12.0   $4.8279   $2.95   5.098%   $0.01

time to close this position?! - not yet i think. done some wise trading inbetween


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: M4v3R on February 15, 2012, 10:07:05 PM
You're well in the green now :)


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: waspoza on February 15, 2012, 10:10:30 PM
BTCUSD   -12.0   $4.8279   $2.95   5.098%   $0.01

time to close this position?! - not yet i think. done some wise trading inbetween

It will get lower soon i think, so keep it imo.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: Oldminer on February 15, 2012, 10:43:41 PM
Markets never tend to keep going straight down. It will bounce around a bit on its way down (assuming you agree it will keep trending down). So, you could liquidate now & take your profit then sit it out a bit & wait for the price to go up slightly, then sell some more?  ;D


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 16, 2012, 12:13:52 AM
BTCUSD   -2.0   $6.6827   $4.52   33.798%   $0.01

+4.62$

no position.



Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 16, 2012, 01:05:57 AM
BTCUSD   12.0   $3.9436   $2.31   4.881%   -$0.00

caught a spike. i think i will sell it.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 16, 2012, 04:23:07 AM
closed the earlier one with a small profit and opened up another long position for the very short term. stop loss 3.9999 goal: 4.4x

BTCUSD   10.0   $4.2639   -$0.27   -0.644%   -$0.00   


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: M4v3R on February 16, 2012, 07:28:29 AM
Good that you're using a stop. More downside could come in few hours, better not let these profits get away.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: waspoza on February 16, 2012, 10:48:39 AM
Still on the way down, im affraid. Too soon for this long imo.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 16, 2012, 06:32:55 PM
Good that you're using a stop. More downside could come in few hours, better not let these profits get away.

to use a stop loss and take your profits while they are real, are probably the stuff i REALLY learned from losing 27 bitcoin through zhoutongisation. could have taken 3 times small profits, but i choosed to not use a stop loss (despite i propagate it all the time :/) and not take my profits.

having a nervous finger and not sticking to your strategy is probalby the number 1 reason for losses. lesson learned. im trading more like a robot now, then like a human.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: M4v3R on February 16, 2012, 08:19:03 PM
having a nervous finger and not sticking to your strategy is probalby the number 1 reason for losses. lesson learned. im trading more like a robot now, then like a human.

That's actually a good sign :).


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: Vandroiy on February 16, 2012, 09:06:17 PM
having a nervous finger and not sticking to your strategy is probalby the number 1 reason for losses. lesson learned. im trading more like a robot now, then like a human.

Just have to comment on this for some reason. The way of thinking might be the most important decision in trading. I found three kinds of thinking effective. Let's call them the predator, the wise old man and the mastermind.

Trading like a sheep, just running along with what everybody does, gets you eaten for sure. It's just a matter of when. Trading like a machine, oblivious to psychology, protects you from being slaughtered with the herd. But being aware of the herd is much more powerful than being oblivious to it.

The predator notices when the herd panics and strikes at the right time. There are many ways to doing that; many claim manipulation is one of them, but if I should guess, it is best to act like a spider or praying mantis, waiting and observing for an opportunity. When you see it, you strike.

The wise old man described in one word would be the compromise. He uses laid-back, all-things-considered decisions that slowly profit from what he knows, and tries to avoid getting entangled in what is problematic. He has a gut feeling when everyone is overdoing something, and just doesn't go along as much, profiting from the others' mania almost accidentally. Every good trader should be a bit of a "wise old man", if only to be careful and not get destroyed by one single unforeseen event.

Now, everyone expects the mastermind, but I'll skip it. Instead, here's something I learned on it, namely that you should not want to do that to your head. Once, I believed that magical strong moves one pays for with his health only exist in shounen manga. Now, I believe I figured out why forex traders often suffer burnouts. Keep in mind what you are trading for, and take a step back if you're no longer reaching that goal. E.g. if you're trading for fun, check whether you're still having fun... and if you're trading for personal benefit, take the cost of time, sanity and health into account. Even taking over the entire market is of little use if you fry your brain in the process.

Sorry if I'm making no sense, and good luck with your trading. :)


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 17, 2012, 04:44:10 AM
BTCUSD   3.0   $3.5908   $2.83   26.287%   -$0.02

trading systems signal is either now changing to bullish or it tells me to go even more short. not sure yet.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 20, 2012, 01:20:25 AM
closed last position with a good profit. new signals tell the end of the bear market is very near.

20.0    $4.4129    -$1.34    -1.520%    $0.00


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: M4v3R on February 20, 2012, 07:55:29 AM
You didn't do 10:1, did you? If yes, that is a dangerous position now.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: Nekrobios on February 20, 2012, 08:42:15 AM
You didn't do 10:1, did you? If yes, that is a dangerous position now.
In the Bitcoin market, any 10:1 leverage is a dangerous position to be in.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: waspoza on February 20, 2012, 10:52:25 AM
In the Bitcoin market, any 10:1 leverage is a dangerous position to be in.

Exactly. Until market gets way bigger, never ever go 10:1, cuz atm even single person can screw you up.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 23, 2012, 08:47:55 PM
im 1:5 leveraged.


BTCUSD   15.0   $4.3129   $10.23   15.807%   -$0.15

if im lucky with this and the next trade, i got my lose covert.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on February 28, 2012, 07:18:32 PM
liquidized last position with a 8-something $ profit, now im short again:

BTCUSD   -7.0   $4.9377   $0.07   0.204%   $0.00


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: M4v3R on February 28, 2012, 07:29:06 PM
Nice, you actually managed to catch it above 4.9.


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on March 13, 2012, 08:20:28 PM
BTCUSD   11.0   $5.0193   $2.03   3.684%   -$0.01

lucky intuition


Title: Re: Gewures disclosed position
Post by: gewure on March 14, 2012, 06:19:22 PM
BTCUSD   19.0   $5.1431   $3.38   3.461%   -$0.05