Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: adamstgBit on February 01, 2012, 01:22:35 AM



Title: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Do you believe the price is accurate?
Post by: adamstgBit on February 01, 2012, 01:22:35 AM


Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Do you believe the price is accurate?
Post by: adamstgBit on February 01, 2012, 02:49:25 AM


Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Do you believe the price is accurate?
Post by: RyNinDaCleM on February 01, 2012, 03:01:47 AM
Reversal, rally, correction, back where we're supposed to be.


Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Do you believe the price is accurate?
Post by: M4v3R on February 01, 2012, 11:38:29 AM
Keep in mind that bubble often results in a smaller reverse bubble. That's why we saw $1.99 even when it was way below long-term trendline. So now that the bubble is over we can see a setback to $4.6 - $5.1 area before the rally resumes.


Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Do you believe the price is accurate?
Post by: zby on February 01, 2012, 12:02:34 PM
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14998273/chart3.png
Here - I fixed the bottom trend band for you.  It is now around 4.7.


Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Do you believe the price is accurate?
Post by: ArsenShnurkov on February 01, 2012, 01:02:38 PM
http://i40.tinypic.com/10hm4qs.png


Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Do you believe the price is accurate?
Post by: Vandroiy on February 01, 2012, 02:32:07 PM
When was the last time these magic lines worked out? The ones I remember stumbling across on this board seemed to have a failure rate of 100%.

Any reasoning as to why assume linear behavior? Isn't the "take first order lol" approach intended for infinitesimal time-steps? It would be much more persuasive if someone added an argument; preferably not "Look, it worked after all, on the 29th and 48th attempt it was almost perfect!!1"


Title: Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: Do you believe the price is accurate?
Post by: zby on February 01, 2012, 02:57:45 PM
When was the last time these magic lines worked out? The ones I remember stumbling across on this board seemed to have a failure rate of 100%.

Any reasoning as to why assume linear behavior? Isn't the "take first order lol" approach intended for infinitesimal time-steps? It would be much more persuasive if someone added an argument; preferably not "Look, it worked after all, on the 29th and 48th attempt it was almost perfect!!1"
Personally I think there are some linear phenomena on a very short scale - that is minutes or hours - because when people tend to add their orders so that they should be covered in the next swing.  On the long term it is alwas about which one is more persuasive :)