Bitcoin Forum

Hey guys, a lot of you have probably seen my website (www.btcpredictions.com) which displays data produced by software that I wrote that uses artificial neural networks to try to predict bitcoin prices. The 24 hour prediction performs reasonably most of the time, poorly sometimes, but also very well other times. I am still working on improving the algorithm/model.

Anyway, just earlier today I put up the beta version of the 2nd version of this bitcoin predictor. The predictions are much more precise (predicts price over every 15 minute period instead of 1 hour like the old one) and predictions are updated every 5 minutes! You can see the predictions here: http://www.BTCPredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

I'm haven't tested the accuracy of this model yet and I'm going to be tracking it over the next few days - maybe a bit longer depending on how things go. For those of you who are interested, please feel free to follow the predictions and track its accuracy yourselves! I think that it will end up being more accurate than the older predictions, but if it is not I will go back and do some more work to see if I can improve on it some more.

Right now it's predicting prices to peak tomorrow morning around 10:30ish EST. We'll see what happens!

$377.5 on June 22nd!

Sell your coins now!

Just give it a rest with these stupid neural network predictions, I've checked the error rate a few times, after my calculations I saw that the error rate was somewhere close to 99.99%, the other 0.01% was just dumb luck. I did these calculations with my very own neural network computer located between my ears, just so you know it's pretty accurate.

Just tell people that you want them to donate bitcoin and click on the spam advertising, no need to waste your time and neural network.

Nice try, Mark Williams.  ;D

I don't think it's stupid. It's a worthwhile experiment. I believe kevin's neural network will become more and more accurate. Much more accurate than fonsie's head, in fact. You see, humans have emotions, while neural network doesn't. We all know how well emotion-based predictions turn out to be.

your network is extremely bearish, did igorr help programming it?

This is actually a nice idea, im gonna remember some predictions for the future.
And I will compare them to actual data from that day.
I see however in the 20 days prediction, Bitcoin is not doing good at all in those 20 days.
Ill screenshot that and will compare in 20 days!

Interesting work. I looked at the 24 hour actual/prediction chart, prediction is not bad. Are there any 1 month or 1 week comparison charts for version 1? Curious to know the accuracy of your neural network.

At least let people know what timezone his hours are, it's all a big guess to me right now.

So, we're supposed to be $651-$653 now, right?  I'm seeing $664 on Bitstamp.

The 24 hour predictions have done pretty well over the past few months. There have been a few mistakes but overall it has been relatively successful. There is definitely room for improvement though, which is what I've been working on.

Keep in mind, guys, that the 20 day prediction is really just there for fun. It has a very high average error and really is far from reliably accurate. It does well sometimes, but I seriously doubt bitcoin will be falling under 400 any time soon, if ever. The 5-day prediction does quite a bit better but I still wouldn't call it reliable.


I'm working on longer term predictions for the new version (there is a 5-day and 20-day prediction on the main page using the old NN). I'm still working on this new 24 hour prediction too though.

Another thing I'm working on is using a neural network to find the optimal buy/sell values to set when trading. I'm testing strategies by simulating trading starting with $100 at the creation of Bitstamp and seeing how much it profits by the end. I can easily get it to make around $7-$8k from the original $100, but if you buy/hold from the very beginning you get about $10,300. I once managed to get it to earn about $13,750 but I was stupid and didn't save a piece of data that would be needed to replicate that neural network. I am working on some promising strategies now though so we'll see how they perform!


As it says on the home page, the time zone is your current time zone from wherever you are viewing the site.

nope according to my clock we should be 635.8 in about 15 minutes

I don't know what you're saying but it uses Javascript to set those values, so if they don't correspond with your current timezone then it is a problem on your end. It's calculated client-side.

It's 22:47 at my end and your chart says that at 23:00 the price will be 635.8, so it's obviously waaaaay off, so your javascript code is dropping the ball seriously

maybe someone should make a self-learning system if possible.

lol dude the Javascript code gets the time, it doesn't calculate the prediction. if it was 22:47 on your end and the 2nd prediction, which had 23:00 labeled under it, said 635,8, then that means that it predicts the average price of bitcoin between 22:00 and 23:00 will be that price. Basically the rise in price just occurred earlier than predicted. It accurately predicted this rise in price, it just seems to be happening earlier than anticipated.

You can lol all you want, but it's plain and simple, not predicting it reliable to be of any use, but don't get me wrong, I wish/hope you can make it reliable...but as is the case now, people will loose money if they are dumb enough to follow your neural network as of right now.

Best of luck getting it to predict anywhere close to 90%

For anyone who cares, I just made a VERY exciting breakthrough with this! In simulating trading based on predictions of ideal buy/sell prices, I got the neural network to turn $100 into $63,764.98 over bitcoin prices for the past ~3.5 years! That is more than six times as much money as you would make by buying and holding the whole time! The buy/hold strategy turns $100 into about $10,300.

Awesome man, that's pretty cool.

*Here are the points at which it decided to buy/sell - in unix timestamps (sorry!)
BUY: 1315983600
SELL: 1316508458
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SELL: 1317055440
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Would be cool to see how you fair in a falling market. See how much you can increase your Bitcoin holdings.

I haven't gone through the data terribly extensively, but it looks like it loses a bit of money when btc price is falling, but definitely a lot less than it would if it just held.

I didn't expect otherwise, that's natural. The question is, did you manage to increase your BTC holding? Not USD value

Just confirming yeah it definitely did lose money sometimes... seems to have peaked just under $100k when it sold 86.290957 BTC for $1150.866848 each.

And yeah it did increase bitcoin holdings... it had just over 105 a day or so before the end of the data, but it sold them. At the start it can afford about 17 btc for about $5.9 each.

Your project is definitely improving, glad to see it!

Did you train this on all available data, or did you leave some for forward testing?  You need to watch for curve fitting.

uh, it's very bearish  :'(

You're looking at the old version.

New version is short term, but very bullish

http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

I'll work on that, that shouldn't be too hard to do.


It trains on all of the data. I don't think it's overfitting because it actually has a relatively high average error by the time it's one training (something around 8%) but it's still able to profit. I'll definitely be testing it out so we'll see how it performs. Maybe I'll put it online so people can track its progress.

yeah, just noticed it  ;D

Will you add longer predictions soon?

Yeah to be honest, the 24 hour prediction on the main page is the only one that I would say is actually pretty good. The 5-day one is good sometimes but iffy overall, and the 20 day one is really just experimental.


I am working on trying to get the new predictor to predict prices over a longer period of time. I am also working on the buy/sell price predictor though. And I'm also still working on the 24 hour new prediction, because it doesn't seem to be changing shape very much and I'm not really sure why yet. Ahhhh so many things to work on!

Did you do the recent test with the new beta?

Btw, sent you a donation

Thanks a lot for the donation, I really appreciate it!

Is the test you are asking about the one that I said earned $60k? That was done using a different type of neural network, not the beta of the 24 hour one that is up now. It was done with a neural network I've been working on that predicts the highest and lowest price during the next 24 hour period rather than every price.

This looks great...an amazing creation you have done here.
How long did it take to create?

Glad you like it :)

I've been working on it since around October or November 2013, but a lot of that was also just learning about Neural Networks. When I started, I really didn't have a thorough understanding of them, just a pretty basic understanding. Took a while to learn. Also spent some time learning php/javascript/html so that I could make the website.

Keep working on that, I see real applications for it and I would be interested in supporting a more developed version.

Also in the little test you ran, how many Bitcoins did you have on Nov 30 2013 and April 10 2014

On Nov 30 2013 it had 86.290957 BTC. It's really hard for me to tell how much it had on April 10 2014 but it looks like probably around 127 ish

Awesome stuff. Let's see how your new beta predictor (on the site) plays out today.

Excellent work. I've been reading The Singularity Is Near (Kurzweil) so anything neural network piques my interest  :)

I don't much believe in TA, whether it's done by a human or a computer. But I must admit I'm impressed by the prediction made eight hours ago of a fall from 670 to 635 which was almost spot on both in terms of timing and degree.

Were you looking at the chart here:
http://www.btcpredictions.com/Historic.php

or here?
http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

For a few hours after i posted last, I checked in with the NewPredictor every once in a while, which said we'd be going through a rising swell today. The whales apparently weren't going to have that happen today. The insane thing is that the supposedly simpler predictor at Historic.php forsaw the crash 6 hours before it happened.

Got me sitting up straight and watching intently now.....

The historic (3 layer once an hour). Uncanny.

Yeah the 24 hour predictor on the home page has been doing really well recently... I'm almost tempted to just scratch the new predictor. The cool thing about the way this works is that the longer I keep it running, the more accurate it will become. As more data becomes available to train the neural network, it can learn more and the average error becomes lower.

Got a neural network to tell folks which neural network they should follow at any particular moment?  Looks like they give conflicting calls.

The 24 hour one - it has the lowest average error. The 20 day one is unreliable, as it says above the chart. The 5 day one does OKAY but it's not as good (as is reflected in the higher average error)

You should honestly remove the 5-20 day ones, they just mislead noobs.

Is your 24 hour one updating in real time? I imagine it would be more effective if it corrected mistakes on the spot.

http://puu.sh/9eM83/b90ecc457d.png

As you can see above there is an increasing disparity between prediction and actuality, but no correction or timing adjustment. However, you did more or less see that recent drop coming, very inspiring.

I think I want to keep those ones still because they are interesting and a lot of people were asking me for longer term predictions when the 20 day one didn't exist. However, I am definitely going to keep trying to improve them.

And yeah, I'm hoping to solve the issue of it taking a bit of time to respond to changes with the new predictor. That's why I'm having it update every 5 minutes. I just uploaded a new neural network for the beta so we'll see how that one works.

I'll be keeping an eye on it.

According to the historic 24 hour predictor...we should start seeing a ramp-up in price here in the next couple hours.

Let's see what happens...  :o

It's been pretty accurate about the major price movements over the past several days... I would not be surprised at all if it is right again here. We'll see, hopefully it is right!

No neural network is required to see that we are about to either go back up to the 680 range (or higher finally), or way down.  At a bit of a crossroads.

That said, I hope your network is correct on this one.  I have some of those 623 coins to unload!


Also, why not have the network predict Huobi instead?  if Bitstamp is tracking it, then you are just compounding an error.  Do you think that Bitstamp is not tracking Huobi?

is there white paper or source code available ?

I just chose Bitstamp because it's a major exchange and there is a lot of historic data available. I don't think it would make a huge difference which exchange I used.


The source code is proprietary for the time being, sorry!

faith is required then ... ok, wish lucky then...

awww it changed its mind :(

So according to the 24-hour prediction chart, we're supposed to be at 687.62 in 6 minutes?

Sweet, time to buy!

to be honest you need to show your method, the secret if you have one such as special setup, or secret number you can keep but ... it's like have a scientific approach to data analysis ...

like professor David Aronson says on
Scientific Approaches to Algorithmic Trading, Part 1 of 4
http://youtu.be/AgOxoMMillM?t=4m15s  

simulate + backtest + cross validation

if you just says that the future price is "X" because is based on neural network simulations sounds very vague to me ... I used to play a lite bit with Jeff Heaton's Encog framework .. and boy ... so much ways to simulate something within neural networks ...

of course in the end of the day in a imperfect information game ... we need some faith ... but to sell a product for financial market .... is better backup you product with a good maths and strong hypotheses  ..

yes ... but .... maybe .... his .... neural ... network ... is .... in ... too ... early ... of ... a ... stage ... to ... show ... off

I don't know how thorough of an understanding you have of neural networks but for 99% of the people who view my site, if they were to look at my code it would not have any effect on their understanding of how my predictions are calculated (they would be lost). I can understand where you are coming from though. If you want to know more about the implementation of this neural network I'm happy to talk to you about it. Just email me at BTCPredictions@gmail.com

It last updated 44 minutes ago, but it does not even show the actual price as the starting point.  What is going on there? 

There was some problem with the server last night and the software wasn't running for about 6 hours, which unfortunately will have an adverse effect on predictions today. It shows the proper starting point now though.

Well this time the neural nerwork dint do very good hehe, i saw it was predicting a downturn yesterday but the price went up instead of the prediction.. but is good anyway

Hi Kevin. Great job on your neural net predictor. I'm watching your progress and it's looking very good.   :)

Thank you! Glad you like it :)