Bitcoin Forum

So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike. Right now, we're seeing very little market activity as people are likely sitting on their coins waiting for another spike.

At first glance I thought that we'd see another rise, less sharp than the first one, but still relatively steep. Looking at it again though, I think that this inflated price we have now is extremely artificial. One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?

Good luck with that.

Also, how does being oversold lead to a sharp downturn?

"So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike."

--that is pretty much how every sharp rise or fall in bitcoin has transpired.

"I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn."

--and what is your evidence for this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UYwOIvOrao (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UYwOIvOrao)

Come on market!  Somebody just sold like 6K BTCs.  You should respond now by panicing.  (into my bids, kthnx)

Edit:  Also, remember everyone, it's still the weekend!  :o

I agree that large buys & sales of 20k+ coins can move the price a good 20 cents or so.  We've seen that plenty.

However, who do we think is making these orders?

Are they all exchanges or speculators individually getting bitcoins just to store value, or do we think these are the large businesses getting fiat to pay bills?

Or are they miners each dumping their mined coins at random points in time?

how many large players can really be out there for non speculative reasons?

Price goes up, price goes down. You can't explain that.

Your not going to see a real major rally while the price sits @ $5. To rally people really need to want it & @ $5 no-one really wants it.

and how do you know this  ???

That purchaser used up the supply of people willing to sell their bitcoins below $5 each.

+1

I don't mean to say I told you so.

But... I told you so.

Seems actually fairly normal for a low market cap issue. Large player comes in, huge buy order, move the price massively, waits for the calm, sell off half to 2/3s of the position, rinse repeat, build a very large position, print money ;)

Wow how wrong you were on this.

The price stabilizing between $4 and $5 says people are hanging on to bitcoins. Oh and also the price rise to $11.30 recently.

How's that IXCOIN investment coming??

 :D

N-n-n-necro Breaker...

We should make it a habit to revive old threads with predictions.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=98829.0

I know the accepted etiquette, but these are very special circumstances. (also I've been reading history and have *not* necro'd about 500 posts that I wanted to as I was looking back this evening, so...)

Here is the most important thing to know: the public are always the last to get on board.

Back then, the public were oblivious. The public derided and mocked (see slashdot, motley fool etc), the public had no idea what Bitcoin was or what it could do.

Contrast that to now - here on BCT (more of the public than ever registered), and e.g twitter - the public are convinced - they are all in on BTC.

That's the same public that didn't know back then. That's the same public that doesn't know now.

What don't they know? They don't know what Bitcoin is, what it can do. They were not registered here back in the day, more are now. They are not registered in the places where Bitcoin is discussed (as it was back then) now. They did not know this place existed back then, as they do not know of places now. They did not recognise opportunity back then, as they do not now.

Mark it well *the public are always the last ones*

First comes the smart money, then comes the institutional investors, only then will the public join later, once everything has been spelled out to them. Once the market has already moved.

This is information asymmetry, it has always been about knowing, before anyone else.

What was there to know back then? and what did "the public" think about that?

What is there to know now? and what does "the public" think about that?

The public are not on your side, the public do not want you to know. The public must, at all costs, be last.

Which is why my coworkers laugh at me when I tell them I accumulated a ton of bitcoin during the bottom this Fall/Winter (or tell me to sell immediately any day that bitcoin goes up a tiny bit, and then laugh at me when I tell them I'm looking for more like 2500% returns from here, not 2.5% haha). They are the public, the 99%+ who aren't in bitcoin yet and will be the last to get in. We are smart money. Institutional money will slowly start to get in soon (and already is in a tiny tiny bit). Anyone even just getting in now is still smart money, even though they didn't get in way back in 2012 at 1/1000th the current price (few did as hardly anyone even knew about bitcoin back then, including me) when this thread was started, because more than 99% of people still aren't in. Anyone who doesn't know much about bitcoin telling someone who does know about bitcoin that bitcoin is a bad idea is indeed part of this public that will be the last to enter. That's how you know to not listen to them. If you are knowledgable enough about bitcoin to be smart money you should be able to tell the difference between yourself and those that represent the "dumb" money - ie those who will yet refuse to get in for a long time.

Apologies if I misconstrue, but I think it's a mistake to surmise that:

Everyone not in Bitcoin => The public
Everyone already in Bitcoin => Smart money

I would ask you to open your mind to the possibility that "everyone in bitcoin" is not a homogenous group.

I think its fairly incontrovertible to posit some example attributes, people that:

a) bought in at $1 in 2011
b) bought in at $20k in 2017
c) bought BTC because they read the white paper and saw the potential of the technology
d) bought BTC because they saw the price action and thought they could make some easy money

These are extremes, there are various shades in between, and being in e.g people in group a, are not automatically in c, and may be more towards d. People in b could also be c, but just real unlucky on timing (but, if they are in no way d, the short term price action won't bother them).

The specific make up of the group is difficult to ascertain, but from these premises one can induce that the cohort of people in bitcoin consists of people who are more or less informed about bitcoin, who have varying reasons for being in bitcoin.

I put it to you that there is in this cohort people who might be considered "smart money", "institutional investors" and "the public"

The smart money perhaps tend more towards some function of a & c
The public are the ones that perhaps tend more towards b & d

So what I was trying to explain in my earlier post, was that those currently in bitcoin that are considered "the public" are in fact not smart money. They never were.

I put it to you that the majority of the (d) sub group do not know what bitcoin is, and furthermore don't even care. So I disagree that everyone in bitcoin is smart money.

The smart money, knows what bitcoin is and why it is valuable. It recognises opportunity (as it did back then, when "the public" did not). As it does now, when "the public" does not.

There is an element of "the public" in Bitcoin and what I'm trying to tell you is that you *should* listen to them, because they are revealing to you what "the public" thinks.

If you understand what "the public" thinks, then you are in a position to avoid being a part of that group. As we already identified, "the public" is always last.

What is it that the smart money knows? What is "the public" *not* interested in?

I've been posting for close on 8 years (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=15672.msg465274#msg465274), and in that time I have not wavered in my belief and understanding. Check my history I always thought Bitcoin could be something big (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=56354.msg672506#msg672506). That it's economic model was sound then (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=45382.msg541214#msg541214), and remains so to this day. It continues to grow, and recent developments with metanet building out on top of the Bitcoin base layer have made me more confident than ever in its potential to revolutionise humanity.

This is the red/blue blue pill moment. Once you see what metanet is, what it does, there is no looking back.

This genie cannot be put back in the bottle (https://bottle.bitdb.network).

I wish you luck, traveller.

Okay this is really getting out of hands, I have been asking this question and no one is yet to give me the reply I have been looking for, how are you guys able to dig out topics that have been created years ago hoping that the op might see your reply not considering the fact that he/she might no longer have access to their bitcointalk account or they have passed on out of the world, I am so surprised about this one cause this topic was created in 2012.

Very interesting to read messages. written seven years ago, when the cryptocurrency was in its infancy, and the price of bitcoin was at the level of 4-5 dollars. Yes, if these people then knew how high the price of Bitcoin would rise. Just as we do not know what the price of Bitcoin will be in another seven years.
Also, it is possible that people will read our messages and reason in a similar way. The world develops cyclically, but not in a circle, but in a spiral. Everything is repeated, but at a new level. I wonder why we never heard about cryptocurrency-like money?

   I do not understand this overreacting move. Is it scare to loose possible profit?
   I think the spike was so long waited and desired that some people just couldn't control themselves and hurried to sell to get some small profit at least. The problem is the number of such people was huge.
That's bad trend. With such moves we may not see 20000 $ ever again, cause every time when bitcoin will add 1-2 thousands will be such people who will hurry to sell and by this will provoke a new drop.

A $4 floor?Do you mean 4K,not $4? ;D
Very little market activity?The 24 hour bitcoin trading volume is 24 billion USD!Is that you are calling "very little market activity?(It can be faked,though,but I don't believe that much in that)The fact that there's a low price volatility doesn't mean that there's no market activity.
Stop with the BS and nonsense,OP.

It much has been $4.000 OP was thinking about and not $4, right now a 50% drop in bitcoin price seems very unlikely I think we will slowly try to test $10.000 in the next few weeks, with just around one year to next halving people will now start to focus on higher prices within the next year.

It was written in 2012 and the price really was 4 dollars per 1 BTC.

I disagree.

It had been silent for like a year and just went up recently. It could be an original one but there is a chance that it could go down to meet its moderate fluctuation again.
It wont be that much deep though.
There is a large change it could stay win 6k USD which is still high for me and then maybe a slow price hike again. Like $100 per month.
I would love for that to happen but I aint from the future. We are all living in the present and that means we dont know what could happen.

Taking into account the previous in OP it is necessary to note that there are many times that history repeats itself but in different circumstances, it is repeated by the fact that the market stages based on a standard are Accumulation Phase and Distribution Phase, if We put in this context we can see and realize that history will always be repeated, because that is the market.

Now taking into account the last rally levels that have been in bitcoin price, have occurred in the same way as people and operators are still in the market, this is good because if they continue in this way can occur a setback or a lateralization, particularly I prefer the lateralizations, so that liquidity zones are formed and can in some way serve for the different areas that bear a downward blow that can give bitcoin and not suffer consequences.

But everything is in the hands of the Strong Hands of what their plans may be, so we must be clear that the presence of the market in the accumulation stage is happening and is being executed successfully, since these movements help to accelerate the process of market accumulation.

I hope you have taken the advantage of that little push in March to buy then as bitcoin is now at the surprising price compared to were it was then. It is good that you noticed what cause the spiked and the most important and investment decisions to make is to buy then and by now you could have getting a good profits on your investments.

I agree with you, op, but I don't think it's going to 4000 dollars after the correction. The price was progressively rising, now it just rised too fast thanks to speculation, but even before the recent hype, the price was doing well, superior to 5000 dollars.
4000 dollars would mean the market is losing investments, and in fact, I don't see it happening, as adoption from important brands and businesses are happening.

It seems to me that 4000 dollars is not real. I do not think that market makers have plans to lower bitokin again to this level. It would be too stupid, because a lot of people who did not buy bitcoin at a cheap price would have attacked him like wild hungry animals. Whales will not allow this.

Not sure if replying to such an ancient thread will trigger someones sensibilities but I like the perspective given over that time and how unimaginable our current pricing position is to past holders of BTC.    The main thing to take away from this thread is the OP dropped his interest in BTC apparently, going on post count and as we've seen staying involved with BTC long term regardless of price has been a good idea because its grown long term.

If we dont take the price so much as being 'way too high' or getting overly gloomy when the price is gone done for a while it seems eventually to iron out and be a good idea to stay involved

I can't believe people today are replying to this 2012 post when bitcoin was $4 without looking at the date.
What sticks out to me is this: read this post, ignore the dollar amounts and the EXACT SAME QUESTIONS ARE ASKED BY US ALL TODAY.

It can be caused by a large purchase knowing buying bulk cheap price of bitcoin is the technique to to get millions on moon. Also, bitcoin's price becomes stable at $8,400 meaning the factor should be independent like buying coins and not depending on someones economy.

Thankyou!!! We may disagree on the answers but at least you grasp the questions ;)

for everyone else staggering about in the dark:

https://i.imgur.com/susLG8P.png