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Title: Betting Exchange Question Post by: CoinFriendApp on July 16, 2014, 08:46:46 PM https://i.imgur.com/VpJgiaz.png
If I lay "Over 4.5 Goals", couldn't I also BACK 'Under 4.5 Goals" risk-free? Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: deadley on July 16, 2014, 08:53:26 PM https://i.imgur.com/VpJgiaz.png If I lay "Over 4.5 Goals", couldn't I also BACK 'Under 4.5 Goals" risk-free? Yes, laying means you are backing opposite. Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: CoinFriendApp on July 16, 2014, 08:58:17 PM https://i.imgur.com/VpJgiaz.png If I lay "Over 4.5 Goals", couldn't I also BACK 'Under 4.5 Goals" risk-free? Yes, laying means you are backing opposite. Yes but how does it work if I can make an 'offer' at 1.67 then at the same time back the opposite side at 2.5. Isn't that basically arbitrage? Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: deadley on July 16, 2014, 09:09:01 PM https://i.imgur.com/VpJgiaz.png If I lay "Over 4.5 Goals", couldn't I also BACK 'Under 4.5 Goals" risk-free? Yes, laying means you are backing opposite. Yes but how does it work if I can make an 'offer' at 1.67 then at the same time back the opposite side at 2.5. Isn't that basically arbitrage? It is but all depends what odds you will get on odds side, normally you will not get better odds on back side. And if you lay over 4.5 and back under 4.5, you are just doing backing under 4.5 in both bet. Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: CoinFriendApp on July 16, 2014, 09:14:52 PM Quote It is but all depends what odds you will get on odds side, normally you will not get better odds on back side. What do you mean? So the 2.5 I see I can't actually get? If I want to back 'Under 4.5' and I want to be 100% sure I will be matched, do I bid at 2.54? Quote And if you lay over 4.5 and back under 4.5, you are just doing backing under 4.5 in both bet. Yes but the market right now says I can lay over at 1.67 but back under at 4.5.. that's what I don't get, that discrepancy.. :S Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: ctlaltdefeat on July 16, 2014, 09:32:45 PM Quote It is but all depends what odds you will get on odds side, normally you will not get better odds on back side. What do you mean? So the 2.5 I see I can't actually get? If I want to back 'Under 4.5' and I want to be 100% sure I will be matched, do I bid at 2.54? Quote And if you lay over 4.5 and back under 4.5, you are just doing backing under 4.5 in both bet. Yes but the market right now says I can lay over at 1.67 but back under at 4.5.. that's what I don't get, that discrepancy.. :S If you back under at 2.5 and back over at 1.64 with an equal potential win, then your expected result is a loss, if that's what you're asking. Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: CoinFriendApp on July 16, 2014, 09:37:05 PM Quote It is but all depends what odds you will get on odds side, normally you will not get better odds on back side. What do you mean? So the 2.5 I see I can't actually get? If I want to back 'Under 4.5' and I want to be 100% sure I will be matched, do I bid at 2.54? Quote And if you lay over 4.5 and back under 4.5, you are just doing backing under 4.5 in both bet. Yes but the market right now says I can lay over at 1.67 but back under at 4.5.. that's what I don't get, that discrepancy.. :S If you back under at 2.5 and back over at 1.64 with an equal potential win, then your expected result is a loss, if that's what you're asking. Whoops you're right yeah, correction: Why would anyone LAY over at 1.67 (hoping that 'Under' happens) when they can BACK under (hoping that 'Under' happens) themselves at 2.5? Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: ctlaltdefeat on July 16, 2014, 09:54:21 PM Quote It is but all depends what odds you will get on odds side, normally you will not get better odds on back side. What do you mean? So the 2.5 I see I can't actually get? If I want to back 'Under 4.5' and I want to be 100% sure I will be matched, do I bid at 2.54? Quote And if you lay over 4.5 and back under 4.5, you are just doing backing under 4.5 in both bet. Yes but the market right now says I can lay over at 1.67 but back under at 4.5.. that's what I don't get, that discrepancy.. :S If you back under at 2.5 and back over at 1.64 with an equal potential win, then your expected result is a loss, if that's what you're asking. Whoops you're right yeah, correction: Why would anyone LAY over at 1.67 (hoping that 'Under' happens) when they can BACK under (hoping that 'Under' happens) themselves at 2.5? Laying 1.67 gives raw back odds of around 2.49, so I guess it would be slightly better to back at 2.5, but not anything dramatic. EDIT: It could be that your confusion comes from the fact that you haven't realized that 1.67 is the BACKER's odds, not the LAYER's Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: CoinFriendApp on July 16, 2014, 09:59:44 PM Quote It is but all depends what odds you will get on odds side, normally you will not get better odds on back side. What do you mean? So the 2.5 I see I can't actually get? If I want to back 'Under 4.5' and I want to be 100% sure I will be matched, do I bid at 2.54? Quote And if you lay over 4.5 and back under 4.5, you are just doing backing under 4.5 in both bet. Yes but the market right now says I can lay over at 1.67 but back under at 4.5.. that's what I don't get, that discrepancy.. :S If you back under at 2.5 and back over at 1.64 with an equal potential win, then your expected result is a loss, if that's what you're asking. Whoops you're right yeah, correction: Why would anyone LAY over at 1.67 (hoping that 'Under' happens) when they can BACK under (hoping that 'Under' happens) themselves at 2.5? Laying 1.67 gives raw back odds of around 2.49, so I guess it would be slightly better to back at 2.5, but not anything dramatic. What does raw back odds mean? :S Isn't laying at 1.67 just mean you will pay back 1.67 * [what the backer stakes]? So if I lay [Over] $100 at 1.67 then I win $60 if it's [Under], or I lose $100 if it's [Over] no? Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: suryc on July 16, 2014, 10:00:15 PM I'm just curious, what betting exchange is this and what others are available out there?
Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: deadley on July 16, 2014, 10:05:41 PM I'm just curious, what betting exchange is this and what others are available out there? This is Betfair, there is another 2 more Betdaq and Matchbook. I always prefer Exchange then book because far better odds. Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: ctlaltdefeat on July 16, 2014, 10:22:16 PM Quote It is but all depends what odds you will get on odds side, normally you will not get better odds on back side. What do you mean? So the 2.5 I see I can't actually get? If I want to back 'Under 4.5' and I want to be 100% sure I will be matched, do I bid at 2.54? Quote And if you lay over 4.5 and back under 4.5, you are just doing backing under 4.5 in both bet. Yes but the market right now says I can lay over at 1.67 but back under at 4.5.. that's what I don't get, that discrepancy.. :S If you back under at 2.5 and back over at 1.64 with an equal potential win, then your expected result is a loss, if that's what you're asking. Whoops you're right yeah, correction: Why would anyone LAY over at 1.67 (hoping that 'Under' happens) when they can BACK under (hoping that 'Under' happens) themselves at 2.5? Laying 1.67 gives raw back odds of around 2.49, so I guess it would be slightly better to back at 2.5, but not anything dramatic. What does raw back odds mean? :S Isn't laying at 1.67 just mean you will pay back 1.67 * [what the backer stakes]? So if I lay [Over] $100 at 1.67 then I win $60 if it's [Under], or I lose $100 if it's [Over] no? The 1.67 refers to what the backer gets. If you lay over at 1.67 and backer bets 100usd then if it's over you get the 100usd and if it's under you lose 67usd, leaving you with a net of 33 usd left. It's raw because because it doesn't take into account the 5% profit commission. Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: CoinFriendApp on July 17, 2014, 12:20:54 AM I get it now!! omg I had to pull out excel to do all the math.
Thanks for your help!! :) Title: Re: Betting Exchange Question Post by: titulng on July 17, 2014, 09:44:46 AM :D what is the site you bet? only this one?
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