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Title: BitLotto - Multiple Tickets with one payment Post by: baldrick on March 21, 2012, 12:05:09 AM Posting here since I can't post elsewhere (yet).
With regard to the new rules in: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34007.msg806114#msg806114 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34007.msg806114#msg806114) I'd like someone to confirm my work is correct and that for transaction 8d2ca38f021c6078bce8b22c8696716a830e30087e14546f3c5da0bd2d92be02 the following tickets would be purchased: ticket: 8d2ca38f021c6078bce8b22c8696716a830e30087e14546f3c5da0bd2d92be02 ticket: 0e73047d2400a908d0a2fca157cbab9ddddba202ad4e545513d25cc5d3526dfe ticket: b2c9b77dd22af793440aa4bf1b81bb2b0fd143656aaaea8c937026aa6e56a89f ticket: c4a71be41f21173708429676bdc030fcec4c97f6f383c455a6b873892e4a82eb ticket: 3fdfabb1af33e05d11b53aed33a42c2f7048d093215a2131a703b2564f703804 ticket: 3eb04f9ba4ec4b7f444617d9713e857c068a8340f115c633cc40df76349a25c1 ticket: 5d5942b941a382231733f4ef92fa8d0650cd3cf2153daef63c6d1b7bee4db5d6 ticket: 9471e6d631eab9f78432180c363d97405b803aef96ea94ba23fce611a84762a8 ticket: 7d1a41a510b3e5fc9e36d3a293c42da581699dd3e4a1d79fbd163bf82c10f5a3 ticket: 326bbb9304c5b89c91293092f71aa99074c1c747bd4f6a20da234514f9331202 Note: that isn't my transaction, just a handy example. Title: Re: BitLotto - Multiple Tickets with one payment Post by: amytron on March 22, 2012, 01:03:35 AM that's a lot
Title: Re: BitLotto - Multiple Tickets with one payment Post by: baldrick on March 22, 2012, 06:08:45 AM I do what I can.
Title: Re: BitLotto - Multiple Tickets with one payment Post by: bitlotto on March 22, 2012, 11:26:34 PM Looks right to me!! :)
Title: Re: BitLotto - Multiple Tickets with one payment Post by: baldrick on April 01, 2012, 09:24:52 PM In regards to your recent change of rules for Bitlotto.
1) You are absolutely correct in your latest change. Your new scheme is much more secure. I don't see any statistical problems with it. 2) It is absolutely possible to select transaction IDs. You simply use a client like bitcoinJ which allows you to create a bunch of transactions then examine/simulate with them to see which one helps you cover the most lucky number space in conjunction with your other transactions. Then you commit only those transactions that help you the most. With that, I was able to get a 2 to 1 expected return for this months draw. Controlling about 15% of the ticket value I had about 30% win chance. Well, until your rule change. I was planning on speaking up this draw but oh well. I could claim my plan was a valid strategy and within the rules however I was clearly attempting to violate the spirit of a random lottery so I can't honestly complain. Now my odds are the same as all the other dumb money chumps. Title: Re: BitLotto - Multiple Tickets with one payment Post by: BurtW on April 01, 2012, 10:05:54 PM In regards to your recent change of rules for Bitlotto. Close call then.1) You are absolutely correct in your latest change. Your new scheme is much more secure. I don't see any statistical problems with it. 2) It is absolutely possible to select transaction IDs. You simply use a client like bitcoinJ which allows you to create a bunch of transactions then examine/simulate with them to see which one helps you cover the most lucky number space in conjunction with your other transactions. Then you commit only those transactions that help you the most. With that, I was able to get a 2 to 1 expected return for this months draw. Controlling about 15% of the ticket value I had about 30% win chance. Well, until your rule change. I was planning on speaking up this draw but oh well. I could claim my plan was a valid strategy and within the rules however I was clearly attempting to violate the spirit of a random lottery so I can't honestly complain. Now my odds are the same as all the other dumb money chumps. Title: Re: BitLotto - Multiple Tickets with one payment Post by: bitlotto on April 01, 2012, 11:01:59 PM In regards to your recent change of rules for Bitlotto. WOW! I wasn't expecting someone actually already doing it. I'm glad I did change it then. Sorry I prevented you from gaming the system! ;) I try to do everything in my power to make it fair. Thank you for being a good sport about having your strategy wrecked. I had to do it of course. 1) You are absolutely correct in your latest change. Your new scheme is much more secure. I don't see any statistical problems with it. 2) It is absolutely possible to select transaction IDs. You simply use a client like bitcoinJ which allows you to create a bunch of transactions then examine/simulate with them to see which one helps you cover the most lucky number space in conjunction with your other transactions. Then you commit only those transactions that help you the most. With that, I was able to get a 2 to 1 expected return for this months draw. Controlling about 15% of the ticket value I had about 30% win chance. Well, until your rule change. I was planning on speaking up this draw but oh well. I could claim my plan was a valid strategy and within the rules however I was clearly attempting to violate the spirit of a random lottery so I can't honestly complain. Now my odds are the same as all the other dumb money chumps. I'm curious how long did it take to create something to do such analysis? Title: Re: BitLotto - Multiple Tickets with one payment Post by: Stephen Gornick on April 05, 2012, 07:13:18 PM Interesting that he ended up winning anyway. So much for the concept of karma. ;D
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