Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin is now what? $470? Is it possible that bitcoin will reach that kind of worth a year and half from now?

If people can hold their coins then yes.

1 year + 3 months...
Its possible. really possible.
bitcoin community is getting bigger every day.

That's a pretty realistic expectation
Not certain, but not difficult to see happen
My personal expectation is $2k-5k for end of 2015

I sincerely hope that i will go at least over 1k

Agreed on this.

My personal is to be around 2.5K.

But lets take little time to w8 and see what will happen maybe this will be in end of this year

No.

By the end of 2015, 1 Bitcoin will be worth less than $500.

You can quote me on this.

Less than $500? So you mean it will stay the same like it is now? More or less $400+ still?

Possible yes, statistically likely , personally I think no, here's hoping though.
This is a 20yr game now I am afraid, not a 2 yr.

Of course it is possible but I wouldnt expect it. I'd concentrate more on helping spread the word and adoption rather on what speculative price it could be. The price I'm sure will climb naturally the more merchants jump on board.

I think there is a good possibility of this by the end of this year (2014).

I would say yes. I think the next leg up will be in the next 12 months and peak at 3-5k. However, as we have all seen before, bitcoin is the honey badger of money and doesn't give a shit, only play with what you can afford to lose.

That should be the case indeed, given trends.

We will see 10k $ next year.

Quote me.

There isn't nothing impossible with the crypto currencies, bitcoin could be worth $200, $2000, or $10000 in few months.

I do not believe that the intrinsic value of BTC will likely be $2000 by the end of 2015, but I see pretty significant divergences between my perception of value and the market's interpretation, i.e. price.

Right now, I believe price is less than value.  When it corrects, it tends to overshoot.  So I wouldn't rule out a price of $2000 by the end of 2015.  By my calculations, which are subject to change pending adoption and transactions, a value of $2000 would probably take place sometime in 2017 or 2018.

That still makes a $475 bitcoin a pretty damn good investment.  Where else might you see a 400%+ return in 3 or 4 years?h

2k? when BER Airport is complete ;D

absolutely

Nothing is impossible in the online world.
The higher the better for those who have tons of BTC. :P

$2000 by the end of 2014 seems more likely to me, even with the price we have had lately.

My opinion is that it will definitely raise again (for example if it will become regulated in some countries), but I don't think it will reach $2,000 , definitely not by the end of 2015

$2000 will be a low value for bitcoins next year, with the incoming halving the price will skyrocket.

If bitcoin can go from $2 to $50 and $250 to $1200.... then $2000 is quite possible by year's end.

When is the incoming halving due to happen?

It will be at $2.000 on 31st July 2015. At the time of afternoon tea in London.

lol people are so stupid
you all believe in a wet dream here is true

$2,000 yes, for 2000 BTC $1 each, that is realistic price and maybe even too high

just look what is happening everybody is trying to sell it off because its just dream money its not real............. its a fantasy!!

If we will be still following the exponential uptrend which lasts since 2009 then 2000$ will be the new bottom.

quoted

Not just possible, but probable.

i want to say you something, a thing like that it's possible THIS year, don't worry just because of the recent mini dump, the price simple raised too fast at january, now it's returning to his position

I would say almost sure.

Possible? Definitely! If you asked people in February 2013 if it was possible or probable that Bitcoin was worth $1000 in December 2013, they'd send you straight to the loony bin! But it happened. A crazy increase! And a 4- or 5-fold increase over the course of more than a year is possible with Bitcoin!

This is exactly why it WON'T happen. Most people bought bitcoin in February 2013 or earlier because merchant adoption hadn't happened yet, and there was a lot of hype about it happening and bitcoin going mainstream soon after. Those early adopters wanted to see what it was all about, but deep down didn't expect huge gains and were just interested in the potential. Most of them just tested the waters by investing a few hundred dollars at most.

Now all we hear is,

"When will bitcoin hit X amount of money?"
"Should I go all in?"

There is nothing particularly interesting to look forward to anymore. There was a lot of support behind bitcoin in 2013, but now the momentum is gone. Yes, there is the ETF, but that is not a bitcoin development, it's just another way for people to invest. But if they wanted to invest, they would have already invested!

Now, it's just become a get rich scheme. The public has decided they don't need bitcoin, so now it's a bunch of bag holders with big dreams and nothing to back it up. $1,000 will never happen again, my friends. It's over!

Wow.  Such cynicism.

We are in a much greater position for a rise in price than we were last time.  With more people that are even aware or Bitcoin or who have dabbled in it there is a much larger pool of people that will invest when the price movement begins which in turn will cause an even higher price than the last increase when it does happen.  We probably have some bigger players that are trying to keep the price steady or as low as possible for whatever reason, probably to pick up more coins before the next rise, but I think of bitcoin like it is a geyser waiting to erupt.  There is definitely things happening under the surface and when it finally erupts it will be mindblowing.  For some reason this seems to be the way it works.  Perhaps when it reaches full adoption and is widely used we will see less of this I believe.  But for now we just need to enjoy the ride.  

Ha, really? Since when are you involved in Bitcoin, if I may ask? I do get some of your points, yeah people back in the days didn't care that much about the potential profits, they didn't believe such great increases could happen. But the ecosystem is still developing incredibly fast. We're still going soo strong.

You know what I just had a real moment of clarity and I honestly am surprised the Bitcoin is not over 1k right now..  I'm thinking it's soon approaching blast off again.  I'm probably speaking a little soon but my crystal ball is showing me some great images. 

I guess if you told people in january we would be sub 500 and lowering now, they would not believe.

More than 1 year is too much time in the Bitcoin world to make any reasonable price estimative. No one can do that.

Impossible. I will go mohawk if this happened.

You're not paying attention.
Nope, the way things are structure currently it's almost impossible for institutional money to invest. Also, institutions move very slowly, so it's still very early days for them. I'm not saying the price will go up, but I do think there's a lot more potential upside than downside.

Winklevoss ETF will actually be shot down
GABI is already priced in

By the end of 2015 seems like a realistic prediction to be honest. The way things are now I do not see it happening this year unless people start holding their coins. I personally would be happy to see bitcoin at around the $2,000 mark by the end of 2015 if not before.

As for the http://bitcoinclock.com/ (http://bitcoinclock.com/) Bitcoin Clock

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-05 06:00:20 UTC (100 weeks, 20 hours, 10 minutes)

But it keep a 600 seconds/block mean interval, where we are at least 10% faster (540-480 seconds intervals)

This imply not 100 weeks but 80-90 weeks ---> End of May 2016 or earlier.

This keep inflation as much as higher 10-10% higher than the design.

Last week, the weekly (projected to 52 weeks - ~one year) inflation was 13.08% instead of 9.94%
If it kept this rate halving would happen in 70 weeks (around February 2016) but it is very improbable.

No way, we will stay at this level. There won't be any recovery nor will we go down from here!

Look at the current price spike on Bitstamp and stop with worries... :)

In 2015 the price will hit a new all time high so it's really possible that 1 BTC will be $2000 or more.

Quoted. And I will remember to call you out



If we don't even see $2K by end of 2015 then we might be fucked

Not anymore, bitcoin has been dropping and dropping each week. $200 by 2015 is a closer prediction..

Possible - Yes.
Probable - No.

Why is that? Hmmm.. what makes bitcoin go up and what makes it drop?

Of course, why not? Just look at how volatile it has been since it was created. We could also see a $30 price by then, of course, it depends on how the demand for it changes.

I am 99.99% sure it will be 2k USD at least at some point in next 1.5 years.

It's unlikely that 1 btc will be worth $2000 simply because it will be worth at least $6000 by the end of the next year.

It seems the awareness of the next halving is quite low.  As it increases, and as we get 6-9 months out from it I think the awareness will increase quite a lot, then that will be another impetus for people to buy before the "new supply" is cut in half.  We are still maybe 20+ months out until the next halving depending on hash rate increases, so not many people are looking at it yet.  As you said, Feb 2016 seems unlikely, but a year from now I think many more people will be aware of it.

The first halving seemed to be pretty anti-climatic, but things are much different now.  Obviously merchant adoption going forward is key, the ETFs, and other uses will also be important too, not just halvings, but it is a big factor.

Possible and difficult too, I am hoping for that to happen.

Bitcoin is an incredible emergence. In spite of its technical elegance and originality it is still a form of money. Most people have invested fiat money to obtain bitcoin money with the knowledge that it will probably be worth more in the future. That was true in the early years when bitcoin lacked utility, just as it remains true now. Looking back through old forum threads people like you have been announcing the end of bitcoin since 2011. You were wrong then and you are likely wrong now.

Bitcoin at $1000 dollars will never happen again? LOL. Tell that to the VC's pouring hundreds of millions into bitcoin right now. Tell that to the huge companies, merchants and payment processors integrating bitcoin this year.  A small number of bitcoins trade on exchange to determine the price. Supply will be constrained by the block halving in 2016. The exchange traded fund COIN will open up bitcoin to a vast swathe of capital seeking gains in a ZIRP to infinity environment. Looks like a perfect storm to me - it is not a matter of if there will be another bubble, simply when.

A relatively small amount of capital can start the next bull run at will. My guess is that once the SEC leaks the opening of COIN to insiders we will see some major volatility on exchanges followed by a few months of incredible growth as a new asset class enters the investment world.

No not exciting at all you tiresome troll..

There were too many great news in the last months, the price must rise in the next weeks in my opinion.

Im holding for sure across xmas eve.

just don't buy too much that you can't hold until 2020.  that's my outer bound.  we'll know for sure by then and it's highly likely Bitcoin will be considered a great success by that time.

Yep, 2020 will be key, total consolidation from BTC, lots of suicides of non buyers, or total fail, we'll see.

Not possible. Maybe twice it is today. But not $2k

BTC/EUR on BTC-e reached 3200 EUR just yet!

http://i.gyazo.com/56f5edc9c7a61a9cd600a2b4e63a25a7.png

It is like say Bitcoin almost broke the 100's because of mr102.

When will this occur?

Now long would it last?

quoted for future refference

We dont know. I couldnt say it wont, I really couldnt say that it will. Lets just wait.

Don't get the programmers of those bots. It's as if they issue an instand buy-order at any price possible. Why wouldn't they just place an order for a certain price. Buying through the whole order book seems like a rookie mistake to me... Geez...

Anything is possible. It could be $2000. It could be $0.002. Don't plan your life around BTC reaching $2000 in 2015.

Not possible. Bitcoin today is very unstable. It goes up and then it goes down and then it goes up again and then it goes up again.

I'm thinking a lot of things could happen in the next 16 or so months.  But yea It's very possible in my humble opinion.  If people decide to start using Bitcoin's and or holding them, this could happen.  If there is more advancements in the ease of use department for the average person I think the sky is the limit.   It just takes a great service or two for Bitcoin to really be accepted and then there will be no doubt and denial of where the price can go and should be.

Seem like btc is drooping and going up for few days now need to stabile before something big happened

It is possible but HIGHLY UNLIKELY. I'd rather bet on $200, even $20, than $2000.

If you say so...

How dare you, a mere senior member, question an all-knowing junior?

Why the next thing you know heroes and legends will start thinking they know as much as noobs when noobs clearly outnumber them.

If you've known about Bitcoin for more than a few months, you're obviously living in the past.

 ::)

Being a newbie is a good thing because you're unbiased. Senior members think the Sun revolves around Bitcoin.

Yep. Ignorance and guesswork are preferable to knowledge and experience because knowledge causes bias.

LOLOLOLOLOLO

hahahahahahaha

 :) ;) :D ;D 8) ::)

How old are you, child?

Let the time tell who was right. I've seen enough "knowledgeable and experienced" members being dead wrong with their wishful thinking predictions.

Everything is possible.

The problem is, many of these newcomers are jealous, greedy and fearful...just like oldtimers  ;D

yea and it's sad many of them are scammers :(((

55 billion marketcap is the record, still very low if you concidder it's going global. A trillion is very much possible in several years. That would be $75,000 per BTC.

Well it took a matter of hours to go from 300 to 1000 in the last mega rally, so objectively you never know when it will happen and you will surely miss on it by selling too quick or being out as in holding FIAT only because you where undecided as in to when enter the market again. Big rallies are so quick, look at the graph of 1y period in Bitcoin wisdom.

Seem like we need some big country collapse like Cyprus with some big countries cash flow.

More like when this in Ukraine is over will be some price change. In what direction we will see.

Absolutely it went from 90 to 1000 and still around 470 from a year ago and a heck of a lot less before that
So in a year and a half if things progress at this rate and that adoption and usage really starts to kick in its a good reality that we will see those prices.

I dont think that BTC will go under 400$ maybe this is trap for us all.
Maybe will go rapidly up when reach 400 barrier dont now only my opinion.

my prediction is 3500 -  4000$ if we can cross 800$ this year..

If we go up from here 450 ish.. this might be the last time we have been here..

don't think for a minute guys like draper cannot put price over 1000$ them selves..
 
remember gox bot..    now there are guys who actually have this amount of fiat to push price up.
and remember when price goes up.. not many miners will sell until it reached a bubble pop..   thats why they are mining in the first place..

the guys who cashed out  with high profits to buy stuff already did.at bubble pop 2013..
. it the one's selling now are traders to get more coins ..   gotta thank the weakhands for the coins we have today at this price :)

look at bfx ask side.. how many coins left ? :)

soon we will realize.. wait.; where are all the coins at?


i have this long term theory. 
big guys only can become bigger if they stach more coin.
not because they will be able to cash them out in 1 sell..  they would crash market to 10$ or something..
but if they keep their coins they have to sell less coin for more fiat.. keeping them coins for the long run when coins will be hard to find :)
2016 halving .. i'm wating for you ;)

It was never pump about Cyprus anyway, the whole story was only exploited to make it seam that way.

Thats why the fall was right after the rise, the whole thing was overblown.
If you are waiting for Ukraine to move bitcoin, ure gonna have a bad time.

BTC seems to be continuously falling so, right now I do not think that is possible.  :-\

391$ on cex.io about 12 hours ago sadly

Possible?

It's possible 1 BTC could be worth $2,000 by the end of tonight. All things are possible.

The question you should be asking, is how probable is it?

So how probable is it?

Yeah, sad thing.   >:(

Now the price of 1 BTC = 400 USD on the http://mining-profit.com/. The price I'm sure will climb naturally the more merchants jump on board. In 2015 the price will be $1500 or more.

Why do you guys worry?I hope it goes to 100, I have very little bitcoin.

If it goes to 100 it will probably go to 50 and then to 10... then it wont matter how many bitcoin you have

Hours is a little overrated. :)
As far as I know a rally to the top happens within 30 days of which the most steep part are indeed hours.
It is not uncommon for a $100 daily gain.

True when a rally starts and you still need to get fiat in, you will be too late.

.em etouQ.

by the end of 2015 it will worth more that 2K.

Dont be so negative on price.
I dont think that price will go down anymore, also dont think that will jump to high more like to back on 550$ by end of year.

2016 will be very important for price change, i have this felling that it will be like november 2013.

Agree to this one. Those who have lots of BTC might go rally with this scenario. :P

Not gonna happen.. Maybe $700-850.. 2k is too much.

2k might be price on 2016 but no sooner.
Also i dont thing that it will go over 620$ next year but anything can happen so we all need to hope for the best.

if matter of hours is 3 weeks! ;)

It has nothing to to with holding their coins. There is simply not enough fresh money being pumped in to the system. And why is that? Too much uncertainty and big investors are not so sure that btc are the high class hooker they all want to fuck, at least not at these prices.

2k  til end of this year

Exactly one year ago, Bitcoin was $125. The rally started somewhere at the end of October I believe. It went over $1100 within 1 or 2 months.
x 9 within a short period of time. If same happens, we could even see Bitcoin over $3000 by the end of this year :).

But more interestingly; LITECOIN (more growth potential).

Doesn't look remotely possible right now.  ;D

I think as of now, as the current standing of bitcoin now, it will not reach $2k.

Theory is good.

If you count that now price is ~330$ then price would be ~3000$ if we take last year happening off course.
If not then price may go down more.

Hard to see this but this year is more and more drop year for btc.

I like litecoin and dogecoin.

But see more potential in doge right now.
Have better community and support.

if top1000 btc holders suddenly die and all their wallets gets lost.

i think it would be possible, more and more people are using BTC now then ever, a lot can happen till end of 2015, for good and bad.

good one.
but price will go up only in one condition if private holders dont sell off market to some third party.
if this stop we can expect price goes up

Anything can happen in this market. I think BTC will become bigger and bigger and 2015 will be a great year for those who are holding their coins. Also remember that we have the first block halving

fixed that

We will see. But yes 2015 will be turning point in this.
Holding will be key or maybe holding some promising altcoin and try to profit on it.

The last 1K rally took literally days.. so you never know. Realistically and judging by my own TA, we will not see ATH again until 2015+

Same, I am seeing October or November 2015 to peak

i hope that will happen.
but for real , nope. price will not hit $ 2k by the end 2015.
but miracle sometimes happen , let wait and see

Honest answer: no one knows. Especially the three newbies above this post and their realistic TA ;)

1) More and more people using BTC DOES NOT help the price go up. The reason is as soon as you use the BTC, it is sold and converted into FIAT. None of the merchants want to hold BTC because of ridiculous price changes on a daily basis. The best hope for BTC price to go up is a slow and steady growth and MORE stability in the price.

2) Due to the speculative nature of BTC, LOADS of traders are into the game now and you will see massive profit taking at all levels resulting in big price swings. Those random price swings helps traders make money but does not help the stability of price resulting in wider usage of BTC.

The day merchants accept BTC and then once again use the BTC to buy services/products is the day BTC will go up in value. All that said BTC is currently available at a very good price to hoard for the long term though!

Merchant selling causing price to go down is "largely a myth"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=826203.0

As with any other commodity, once the Demand for Bitcoin rises globally, the price of Bitcoins will increase accordingly.
When demand increases faster than supply expands, only then will the price of Bitcoins truly be able to soar.

Right now, people are trading Bitcoins and creating new Altcoins daily.
Money/Value is just being exchanged between the hands of our still small Crypto-coin community, at the moment. It has not recently expanded much outwards, into the rest of the world.

Bitcoins still face many stumbling blocks ahead of it, before it can gain worldwide adoption.
Many governments will try to suppress or legislate it, for their own benefit.
Realistically, it can take another 5 to 10 years... or more, before Bitcoins truly are in demand.

Most of the demand for Bitcoin at the moment, is from Traders, who are trying to make quick profits from this industry.
The technology and benefits of using Bitcoins, sadly doesn't have great demand, at the moment.

There is more interest from sellers of illegal goods, than there is from the general public.

In any case, I strongly believe that Bitcoins are very much worth investing in;
just don't expect to make and large profits from Bitcoins, any time soon.

It will take much more.
First all people need to know about not just btc but all cryptos.
Other is to know how to deposit or withdraw it so it will take much time.

It seem again that price is going down.
Think we gonna celebrate if price goes over 500$ not 2000$ now.

If this keep going on price will be bellow 300$ in no time.
Hope this wont happen.

whatever the price ,in Bitcoin we trust! But I believe in $2,000 or more in 2015

Similar feeling.

Wrong. Basic economics would tell you that.


Holding can be beneficial as long as others are still curculating Bitcoin otherwise Bitcoin because useless.

For a economy to thrive it needs three things:

Buying/investing
Trading/circulation
Selling

People need to invest into Bitcoin doesn't matter how small or how large although if people buy large amounts of Bitcoin it's only going to help the growth of Bitcoin.

Trading/circulation things need to be bought, sold and traded for Bitcoin otherwise whats the point of having a currency which can't actually buy anything?

Selling we need people to sell just so people can buy.

Circulation is the key to the success of BTC.

Nope. Shopping with bitcoin is not key

High price / high market cap = stability, and that is when corporations can use bitcoin. High $ global B2B remittances is key

That is a chicken-egg problem. Circulation makes BTC useful, leading to higher market cap, more corporation involvement, more usage.

I strongly believe that current price of $325 is not accurate. The price should climb around $800 by end of Nov. and continue to increase close to $1000 by end of this year.

True

Current price is always accurate. A price where both sellers and buyers agree on.

The electricity  cost for mining is a little less than $100 at the moment. It is very profitable to mine and sell at £300.

Probably, but there is probability that in 2015 there will be a new bubble, because in 2016 there will be the halving !

There are many more variables at play than just electricity when it comes to mining costs.

by the end of 2015 may be we see that price
but this year 2014 was worst for bitcoin
even 500$ seems hard for bitcoin this year

2011 would've been a whole lot more alarming for anyone involved.

Anythings possible
If electricity cost can get there  ;)
But speculation wise its anyones best guess where we go from here and how long it takes till the next significant upturn.
Foundations for now.

Price seem to go up again a little.
Seem like that when christmas comes price might go to 500-600$ but 2k in next year hard.

But if somebody or someone have huge influence and bots price can go even higher.

Depends what happens throughout 2015.
A year is a long time, if there is some really positive news then it's definitely possible.

The price will go up long enough for loaded traders to dump their load and ca$h out!

According to my logarithmic regression (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0), bitcoin's value by the end of 2015 will be around 2000 USD/BTC:

https://i.imgur.com/XnvT26Y.jpg

But no one can tell what will be the market's price by then.

lol nice chart... come back to me when btc is NOT $10k by 2018

It's half way of my prediction  ;D

Some pretty good guesses in here, but here's an actual chart to back up most of these claims http://imgur.com/Hf3AcQ6,piL7U3L#1 .  As to stopping price, well I'm too smart to try and predict one of those ;)

With this graph we can estimate that price will go up.
Now it slowly goes up.

All will be happy if price comes to half of predicted graph.

So we estimate price going sky high.
Lest hope that it will be like this in  next year.
It long period one whole year so lest hope that this will happen.

very nice graph ! much appreciated :)

I don't think the price will look anything like this. Why?

1. Bitcoin's network effect means that bitcoin will become more useful as more users join.
2. Bitcoin's price should and does mirror its adoption (as measured in # of transactions/day and also by # of users)
3. In the beginning, there should be a gradual trickle of early adopters and speculators.
4. In the middle there should be a tipping point where everyone can see that bitcoin is the most superior form of money in existence and the majority should pile on at nearly the same time.
5. In the end, there should be gradual adoption among laggards.

In other words, successful adoption would look more like this:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-O9Z4Um4K018/TiHL5GwzHfI/AAAAAAAAAkU/9TsE6Q98AbE/s1600/Upward+Technological+Trends.jpg

The biggest "bubble" will be the period between innovators and early adopters (the first 16%) and laggards (the last ~16%). This bubble will seem like a neverending bull market for years in a row. By its end, many weak national currencies will be gone and bitcoin will be held by anyone with significant savings.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that growth should gradually slow from 10x to 5x to 2x, etc.

It could go do 2000$ by April 2015 if the US Dollar tanks before then and it becomes clear that the US economy is in really bad shape.

It could be at 4000$ by the end of 2015.

$2,000 is very conservative.

Very cool how the newer techs are faster and faster to take off.

Good point.
Perhaps will be more to 1200$ not that much in april next year.
But if all cryptos meaning altcoin follow btc then i dont care if price goes to 2K
Half off my funding is in some other alt so i want to follow price change in alt when btc goes up not just when price is going down.

To be realistic price of btc should bee roughly around 1000$
Think that this is good and fair price.
Anything else will be speculating and guesing.

Personally, I don't think so.  Bitcoin is not (just) a technology.  Bitcoin has to do with money, and at the level we are now, in order to grow, it has to do with BIG money.  Big money is not just a matter of technology, but very much also a matter of trust.  Trust comes with time.

Can you imagine, say, the oil market being done in bitcoin in just a few years ?

The Euro has taken more than a decade of preparation, with strong political will, to be adopted in Europe where countries had to let their currency go.   The Germans had all the difficulty in the world to leave their strong DM for another currency.  There are human factors in money which is more than just technology-adoption.

The other aspect of why I don't think that the bitcoin price will go through an S-curve, is speculation.  The market tries to ANTICIPATE.  Grossly, the current market price is a kind of weighted estimator by the market players of their guess of the future value and the probability they give to that guess.
If the market thinks that it has 1% chance that a coin is going for $30 000,-, then the current market price reflects that.

So normally, the *perception* of the future bitcoin price will be anticipated by markets, and, apart from improbable but important events, I don't see how that perception can jump seriously on a short time scale.

Why should perception of the future price change radically over a short period of time ?  I expect a rather slow adjustment of price as an estimate of future price by the market.

bitcoin and everybody ready for it to reach $2000 and go beyond. It would'nt be suprise.

With an influx of new fiat similar to the Chinese in October - December 2013, it's possible. Without plenty of new fiat, probably not, wait for 2016.

Your right about thins. They had lot of time to prep.
But germany wants to go back on DM for year and have difficulties to do so.

Also its same problem here but it will happen faster then we think.
More users on net, more people involved in crypto, more companies are involved here ass well.

Only time is something that is important here.

You said it price is based on market cap and demand.
Perception is not in this, except if you are lucky.

Price is generated on current market cap and demand not just when someone said I want price to go up.

Yes, i think this is very much possible.
Currenly there is just over 13.5 million coins, by 2015 it should be around 14-15 million coins. So with adoption gaining speed everyday you end up with lots more people that want bitcoins and only a few more available than today.
There is also more and more people hanging on to there stash, holding out for the promised 10k a coin.

The "steady state" price is based upon market cap and demand, which will be the ultimate goal.

However, the speculative part (which has to end one day, and whose sole basis is exactly the non-speculative steady-state outcome) will try to anticipate this.

See it as such, a gedanken experiment:
suppose nuclear power reactors don't exist yet, but the principles are known, and people propose to make them.  Uranium, its fuel, which has no specific value for anything else than nuclear power reactors (say, in this gedanken experiment), has no actual market demand.  Its "steady state" demand right now is essentially zero.  However, the steady state demand for uranium in 20 years, when there will be potentially a strong demand for it, will be high.  If there were no speculation, uranium would be cheap, until such power reactors are build everywhere, and one starts needing it as fuel, and then the price will rise (S-type curve).  Suppose that the demand for usage today for uranium is so low that its market price should be, if only depending on that usage, $1,- per kilogram.  However, suppose that once there are 3000 power plants powering all of the world, the demand for a kilogram of uranium would be $ 10 000,- per kilogram.  Without speculation, the price will remain $1,- until the reactors are there, and will then suddenly jump up to $ 10 000,-.

In reality, the price will not stay $1,- until those reactors are build.  People wanting to be smart, will try to buy uranium now, at $ 1,-, and will try to sell it 20 years from now at $ 10 000,-.  That will increase demand NOW, until the market price is such that speculators are not willing to take the risk anymore of buying uranium for much more than $ 1000,- if they think it has less than 10% chance for the scenario to come out and for uranium to be $ 10 000,-.  So the price will then rise NOW ALREADY to $ 1000,-, anticipating the future 'steady state' price of $10 000,-.

The difference comes from 1) the desire to still make a buck (for less than a factor of 10, speculators won't take the risk), 2) the probability people think it will work out or it will fail  3) risk aversion.

But the price right now will already contain everything one can reasonably expect for the future.  In the end, though, the future "steady state" price, when there is no significant speculation (to the moon) anymore, is the fundamental on which the current price is already based (together with probability of failure, risk aversion, and desire for profit).

If you "believe strongly in nuclear power" then you are willing to buy uranium at a higher price, than people being sceptical of it.  The average weighted expectation (with your money where your mouth is) determines current market prices in a speculative market.

Once speculation (to the moon) is over, the "steady state" price is determined by the fundamental of the market.  In advance, it is determined by the speculative expectation of that fundamental.

I would say it would be possible but we will just have to wait and see. I think most probably it will go up to atleast a 1000 by the end of the year 2015.

Anything is possible with bitcoin give the past history. I am hearing lots of chatters around the forum that it might spike in the next month to reach 1000.

No. Only one thing is possible. This truth is valid both for the past and for the future. There is only one past and one future.

No , I think it's not possible maybe the next year.

The mining reward halt, growing adoption and running inflation will help us go to 2000$ then higher, probably in 2015

According to my simplistic model (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=600802.0), by the end of 2015, we will likely be over 3,000. Though if things go bad, we could still be where we are right now. :)

The truth is that its very difficult to tell at the moment. We know it won't by 2014 but who knows what will happen in another year.

My guess is probably no.

I think 1 BTC only worth $1,500 by the end of 2015, why ?
1. As long some people only use bitcoin to get more fiat the price won't reach too high
2. There aren't any news (for now) that can increase bitcoin price
3. As long government said bitcoin is bad/not money some people won't use bitcoin

1.not all people
2.there may be in 2015
3.not all governments

1. Not enough fundamental to support the price.
2. Never.
3. All governments which catch money launderers.

From your mount to god ears if this happens.
Still good assumption on price.

You got it there.
Still not end of this year but who nows what will occur in next month or next year.

1.Adoption, reward halv
2.Financial crisis
3.You can launder money with anything including Bitcoin, some governments are open to Bitcoin

I think so. If the graphs i've seen are correct, whe should be around 1.500-2.000 next year by this time.

We don't need everyone to use bitcoin in order for it's value to increase. All that really matters is that overall adoption increases.

The Dollar is losing value every year and is likely to lose it at a faster pace in the near future. In that environment, Bitcoin is a digital safe heaven.

We will love to see this to go over 1000$ i think it might just stay there if passes 1K this time.

1K price by end of next year is possible and probable with current market demands.
IF we have luck maybe will pass and 2K but that is just luck.

What are you guys saying about this https://www.tradingview.com/v/eW4PGnUW/

According to that one, we could be at $2000 by the end of next year.

The next rise in price could bring us a lot higher than 2000$ but from where it will bring us it will go down then up again. 2000$ in the end of 2015 could be the 400$ of 2014

be interesting to see the effect of PayCoin on this market

Its possible for large price rises but also for a six pack of beer to cost 1000 which would be a value drop but also price rise in bitcoin.   Might be more effective to name a product you wish to buy in future for some bitcoin and if its price will fall.  People just assume that if bitcoin rises then the dollar will stay the same but its usually the case that as dollar falls other prices are far more excitable in their movements, on another thread someone posted ruble value and bitcoin volume rising so I'd expect higher bitcoin to mean the same

We had big price changes already in past and we will have again.
We can only speculate what when and how.

Price will go up when dont know, how we will see.

My opinion is the exchange rate, this year, got gutted because the Federal Reserve tapered QE3 so it brought the inflation rate (M1) of the USD well under the inflation rate of bitcoin.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml# (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml#)

The rate of adoption and the conversion of USD in BTC (direct or indirect) is not enough to offset the newly created BTCs and keep up the price.
In fact, the price went down from last year continuously, remarking a "slow" dilution of the price, not a sudden repricing.
Now, I suppose, we have reached a point where there is a dynamic equilibrium between new coins created and the demand of coins.

The bad part is the people that bought at higher prices are, mainly, holding.
The good part is people buying now, can spend without problem and hold without risking too much depreciation.

If the depreciation possible is less than the advantages given by using Bitcoin, people can and will start again to convert $/goods/service in BTC.
This will put pressure to the buy side and will, initially, push prices up slowly.

IMO, we will see the "usual" stealth rally of the price, where it will climb, "slowly" back to 400-500-600-700 by april 2015 and then people will start stampeding in again.

This if nothing wrong happen in the economy.
Currently, compared to the last year, MB is near 3% and M1 increased 9% where BTC increased 12%. It is a large gap and the exchange rate suffered because of it.
The good part is the Fed can not keep the MB and M1 there more than a few months without collapsing the economy and the stock market, allowing the interest rates raise.
They will return to increase the MB 30-40% yoy and the M1 of 10-15% yoy sometime in the next six months. Then the exchange rate of BTC will start to climb again like a rocket.

We must keep in mind, the current inflation rate in BTC is slowly decreasing but will halve in July 2016 from 9 to 4.5%. And this will put the inflation rate of BTC in a territory where no fiat Central Bank will be able to crawl without collapsing the economy in a domino of bankruptcies, high interest rates and so on.

That moment (and the weeks/months before I suppose) are the time BTC will definitely reverse its position against the USD, the € and other big currencies. At that time BTC will have the upper hand.
After July 2016 BTC will start to increase in value compared to every major fiat currency, because it will inflate less, and will become a better store of value than them. So people will start to migrate their saving in currency in BTC, like the argentinians now save in USD, €, gold, etc.

Lets all w8 and see but this price wont be till next halving i think and that is 2016 not before but hope dies last.

I just hope it's worth waiting lol.

In theory this could be something that is a major competitor with bitcoin (more so then litecoin or namecoin), however I think this would be a bit of a stretch. If it does compete with bitcoin then it would likely be negative for the price of bitcoin

The price should jump before the newt halving since the sellers will anticipate the halving and ask buyers for more $ to get their BTC.

unlike most other people here i am afraid of the price going up to that. ill be left behind and wont have enough time to accumulate before we go over 1000!

I most certainly doubt about possibility anything over $1000. Be honest, actually we are waiting for the greater fools to buy our bitcoins at $1000.

1000$ a coin is not far away from 400$ a coin, we can get there in 2days and double this price if there is a big positive news about Bitcoin.

It's very possible bitcoin will go ABOVE $4,000 in 2015. Bitcoin overshoots and undershoots beyond expectation. I think it likely that there will actually be two "bubbles" next year because they happen on average once a year and we didn't get one this year.

For that scenario to play out, the majority of coins will need to be in the hands of long term holders. Also, certain geo-economic events will need to play out such as capital controls being implemented in a country where the people have access to bitcoin. Hyper-inflation will boost BTC and precious metals in the currency in which it happens.

another possibility is the U.S. SEC approves one or more BTC ETFs (exchange traded funds) and wall street money starts trickling in, builds momentum and pushes us over the top.

If there is something I have learned over the past four years, it is that market momentum can be an awesome powerful thing. It can flatten anyone ANYONE who gets in the way and make vast riches for those who learn to surf the waves in stead of attempting to hold back the tide.

I think you are entirely right except for the demonstration that we may have two "bubbles" because we didn't have one in 2014 (yet).

Why would you guys think $1,000 per coin is possible when that would be
OVER $14 BILLION DOLLARS IN MARKET CAP!! LOL! We can barely hold onto $5 MILLION!! LOL!
When do you guys seriously see this as possible??? Open you eyes, paper money has huge profit margin this shit cost half a million in electricity per day. Good luck  :D

I think $2,000 is a bit too high, maybe $500

500$ can be made in this month i think, cuz we have holidays coming this can maybe influence on price

NO way to hit this like that. Maybe smaller amount over 500 or to be in that range plus minus 10%

Anything is possible this is just stable price for now.
After or during the holidays we will see in week or two.

I guess the effect the holidays will have will be nullified by the auction happening this month.
Also, I don't think the holidays would guarantee prices to swing up. Maybe, some people might cash out to spend on their holidays, which could lead to the opposite.

why you say this? Is the era of big pump over? :(

We had a nice pump before the auction was announced. Sentiment might improve once the auction is over and who knows, we might see $500 before Christmas if we get lucky.

I have a little thoughts - cost per Transaction is 10-15 times higher than in January 2013:

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/cost-per-transaction?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

So we have two options: number of daily transactions will increase a lot or price will drop. Or there will be two things at once, but to a lesser intensity.

We might get a rally for the end of the year like on the stock market.

No one can make predictions about BTC in such big time span.

It is indeed possible because it happened before, but no way to know if it is a reasonable guess or not

 :o

It is a reasonable guess for some and a random guess for others, if you don't know it means you are doing a random guess ;)

I personally think it will happen before the end of next year, in anticipation of the next halving the market could spike big time with a bubble a order of magnitude bigger than this one, obviously the fall could be disastrous aswell, like we have seen this year indeed the market had overestimated the impact of the previous halving on the long term.

was is not in 2016 halving not next year.
think next will be changing year for all cryptos, we will see who will stay and who will go dark for good.

+1

Can it wait i little if your right i dont have much so it will be crying time for me.

Cmon who can predict a tomorrow price for sure.
ONly one thing remain we all hope to see it go up not down for now is stable that is good.

With Bitcoin as it is right now, I very much doubt we'll see $2000 by end of 2015. The spike we experienced last year was the result of hype + panic buying and because it was the first real 'rocket to the moon'. A lot of people made good money but a much greater number of people lost money. I think people are gonna be a lot more cautious now before going 'all in'. There is also a number of smaller factors that are different now. For example, the altcoin scene has exploded since last year and a lot of people are tempted to invest in altcoins because that's where a lot of new tech is emerging. The price of Bitcoin is already quite high and a lot of the smaller guys might think twice before buying BTC just to hold for better times.
On top of that, we've had a few scares since last year. Gox turning out to be a scam and losing people millions but more importantly, mining groups that have nearly compromised the whole network by being in control of close to 51% of the hashrate. This last one can be pretty scary for big investors because there are no laws to stop someone from taking over the network.
I think BTC price can still go up, maybe up to twice its current value but without improvement to the system itself, I don't see major investors pumping millions into Bitcoin anytime soon.

Altcoin is more innovative, but BTC has to play safe. Price of BTC will rise slowly, with less volatility in the future.

Last year was not the first big rally, we had similar rallies before!

The price per BTC is a function of Demand and Supply which is related to the expected value of all Bitcoins in the future. If in 2015 the market thinks there is 30% chance that the price is 30000$ in 10years we will easily have 3000$ per BTC.

What do you mean "altcoin is more innovative"?
There are a million altcoins out there and 99.9% are absolutely worthless.

after 10 years will bitcoin fall or isn't possible to be >1000 $

way more



They are copied of Bitcoin and don't add much. Their momentum are faked or short lived.

Regarding the first part of your comment, my bad, I wasn't clear enough, the 'spike' I'm referring to is the one between end of Oct 13 and beginning of Dec 13. We've never had anything on that scale prior to that.

Concerning the second part, my comment actually explores some of those factors that affect 'demand' directly. As much as I would love to have BTC reach $3000 next year, I don't think it's very likely to happen  :(

The price of bitcoin is more closely related to the supply and demand that is caused by merchant/consumer adoption. The expected value/price that others think really does not matter

I think both matter, as they both influence demand.  However, I also think that merchant adoption is a much stronger, and more solid fundamental than the speculative demand.  If ever there is generalized merchant adoption, then that cannot disappear overnight.  If people use bitcoin to buy stuff and to earn money, that cannot plop just like that.  That would be a very strong fundamental.  However, I think that for the moment the only solid merchant adoption of bitcoin is in the black market.
The speculative demand (you want to buy bitcoin - demand - because you think it is a good store of value for the longer term) is dependent of what you think the demand (and hence the price) will be in the future, and hence what you think others will think of the price of bitcoin then.  That's a shakier ground, but for the moment it is the main support for the bitcoin price.
My personal idea is that the current bitcoin price is in fact already too high for its fundamentals right now, and is only supported by speculation upon the increase of those fundamentals in the future.  The day that there will be a serious doubt about that future increase, the price may go down to the price supported by its current fundamentals.  I don't know where that is, but if all bitcoins came into circulation (no more hodling) to buy the stuff that is now bought with it, the price could be way way lower.
Of course, as long as there is a growth in sight of the fundamentals, there's no reason not to speculate on more growth, which is what the current price sustains.  But it remains a fragile basis without more general merchant adoption I think.

No, it is not possible, OP.

At the rate venture capital is being poured into the entire Bitcoin ecosystem, I'd be genuinely surprised if $2000 isn't achievable. I've said it elsewhere, but the Mt.Gox and Silk Road episodes will be behind enough to allow a sustained rise.

Will Chinese buy bitcoins like they buy gold is remains to be seen too. I think they will keep pouring more Yuan into bitcoins and Yuan will appreciate against bitcoins so will chinese salaries.

Anything is possible.

Is it likely? No.

I think it is likely that it will reach 2000$ before the end of 2015. To achieve this goal we need to have more new buyers than sellers. As the price goes up, miners have to sell less to pay for their electricity costs and want to hold to enjoy the rally which push the price even higher.

We need to wait until the next halving or until the fed decide to start the presses again.
My bet is, int he next six months the Fed. Reserve will start another round of QE or something QE-like.
As they restart the presses, as the M1 and MB start climbing, the price of Bitcoin will start to climb again  like during 2013.

If the Fed start inflate the USD M1 and MB as much as the last time, in relative terms, the inflation differential will become negative to the advantage of bitcoin.
And the fireworks will be spectacular.

Well you can't say that miners won't sell. if the price goes up to 600$, they would insta sell. A lot of miners, aren't in it for holding, they are in it, just to make that profit they can .

Most miners are bullish on the BTC price but they will sell a lot of BTC to buy new equipment and the manufacturers will sell a lot of BTC to build their miners.

Selling BTC to build miners? you can buy all you want with BTC now to build something and pay your employed with too. just drop for tax or shit like that

Let us just hope that they sell no more than necessary. A lot of miners hold a significant portion of their mined bitcoins.

If the miners do not hold some coins, then the price will be even lower.

EVER is a long time.

If the miners sell all their coins, probably to cover their expenses and recover their investment, the exchange rate will be exactly at the level where the coins sold equal the fiat converted in bitcoin.

3600 BTCs/day at 360$/BTC is 1,296,000 $ converted every day in BTC.

If the quantity of $ in the economy increase faster than the quantity of BTC, the exchange rate will increase. But the $ inflated and is inflating less than the BTC, so the exchange rate fell for all of the last year.
What keep up the price is the usefulness of BTC in specific applications. And this usefulness drive adoption. In the last year the usefulness of BTC increased a lot. At this level, apparently, the usefulness of BTC compared to fiat money and other payment systems is able to drive enough adoption to drive the price up enough to compensate for the greater inflation.

By july 2016 BTC's inflation will halve around 4,5%. before of this, probably in the 1st half of 2015 the Federal Reserve will start some type of QE again. If they don't, the interest rates will soar and the interest rate paid by the government on new bonds will explode destroying the budget. The government will be forced to pay more than half than their revenues in interests or default. Compare the 2% paid today with the 20% paid by Paul Volcker's Fed. So, they will be forced to print, before or later. Before in more probable than later. If the government don't pay it's bonds, a lot of banks will default (because a lot of their money is in government bond), a lot of people and business will default (because near all of their money is in their bank accounts) and a lot of business will default because people will have no money to spend.

Price is so low now that i dont think that will be any time soon some change in price that is for sure.

why do people ALWAYS! return to these kinds of thread as soon as there's a price fall! Hell its 352 DAYS left of the year and we will have a halving in blocks by new year. there's still time to reach 2000 Dollar. hell there's even time to reach 5000. i believe we will reach atleast1300

Me too!

For start lets just go to half of 1300 around 700$ will be fine for this year.
Rest is great profit on all charts. Cuz im investing in some alt as well hope to see them follow btc as usual.

By the looks of things in January we are now in the main part of the crash cycle
History of Bitcoin crashes so while its still possible the odds are higher around the halving of 2016 presently.

If banks stop attacking bitcoin and we see high number of  newbuyers bitcoin price can jump to more than 2000$

Yeah, that is probably when the unicorns return.

Is this a joke???

How is you "knowledge and experience" doing?

hallo greet from 16 januari and btc at $200 usd not $2000usd thanks
 :) :)

It's still completely possible. Wouldn't be the first time this kind of rise happened. Just take a look at 2013! But I agree that we'll either see a very positive and sustainable rise or most likely some boring and stable time like in 2012. I don't think though, that we will be going down indefinitely!

Yeah that's going to be interesting. I think it'll be very good PR for Bitcoin and foster the trust in it, since one of the biggest criticisms is its volatility. If people see a steady and sustainable increase, we might draw many new investors.

Something similar will happen but I dont think it will be with that huge price change maybe half of what was last time.
In other words both will be fine.

In early 2013 a Bitcoin was trading at 10$ on mtgox and it ended the year trading at 1000$ on exchanges where you could withdraw.

yes that was the case now is will be good if goes 5 pimes and price comes to 1000$ dont you all think the same

Current scenario looks bad but I just hope once price has already reached the bottom level, it will continue to rise steadily. Investors will only put their money in if they see progress likewise, if the price keeps on dropping like right now, this will turn their attention away.

At that rate we are looking at $20,000 by the end of 2015.   ;D

I can dream can't I?

I don't think we will see $1200 for a long long time.. mainly because from now on people will be much more careful what they pay for, so I doubt that many people will overly invest in BTC.. I believe this will be a stable year with steady but slow rise.. at least I hope so

I thin we could easily hit £20000 by then because of all the publicity since Christmas.

There's quite a few big bitcoin conferences coming up over the next few months and these will undoubtedly respark more interest and confidence in the community. Many of the godfathers in the community are just now starting to build up the momentum for the new year after taking it easy over the holidays. I certainly have renewed optimism that 2014 is behind us and that 2015 can be the official year of the bitcoin moving forward.

Price ~35% down already, and 2015 isn't even a month old.  Starting "The Year of Bitcoin" off with a bang :)

THat seems to be a very pessimistic target :P

Trying to be optimist to be honest , but lets just dont dream a lot ok?
The start of this year was the worst in the last coupe of years , price got totally scrwed up , it may change and rise from now till the end of the year but not  that much...
Just two days ago an asian exchange website got hacked .. itz not getting good at all but lets hope the best on 2016

In this scenario, VIX would be much higher and late 2015 options premium would be very high, but they are not.

Banks attacking Bitcoin? That is definitely not a reason why Bitcoin's price has been constrained.

Well the possibility was marked for 2014 at first, now it's 2015. At this point anything is possible. So why not, maybe it will reach even more or fall even less.

Its possible it could be more than that or less then that, anything possible when you are spinning around the galaxy on a rock :)

let just hope to like last year for start around 600$ then if they wont it can go over but personally i think it wont.

Now 400$ would feel like a high price for a while.

Very unlikely. We might go back over $1000 during the 2016 halving but I don't see any ridiculous bubbles until another Cyprus happens.

Nobody knows for sure because nobody can see the future except Chuck Norris.

So to answer your question:
Possible? Yes
Guaranteed? No

or Rajnikanth

If not by the end of 2015, at least during the next block reward halving, we should see a bull run.

It is possible but its improbable

Yes it is possible.

But it won't happen

yes possible. but possible also to be 10 dollars. Btc is unpredictable

agreed here cuz this not gonna happen so price stay as it is.



also most likely that price can go down to less then 10$

hope new altcoins will still be worth something if that happens

With the new round of vc investments I think it's a possible thing now. Coinbase didn't use those at the best, but I'm sure they'll resolve their issues. Draper said he bought another 2000btc.

I think its all about 2016. 2015 may be a meh year then 2016 will be a "everyone wakes the fuck up" year and we have a second mega buy rally.

I just asked Chuck Norris. He just busted out laughing uncontrollably. I'm getting a feeling that he thinks it's not possible.

good one with chuck norris
but we wont hit 2k mark this year hard for this to happen.

We've been at a downtrend for the past what, 13 months? No reason for it to spike yet. I agree that maybe in the 2016 block halving we might see $900-$1200. Not so sure about $2000 though.

That never stopped him from making them happen anyway. Chuck Norris was laughing at your dumb question.

Chuck Norris can make the price go to $100,000 with the stroke of his beard.

It's 100% impossible, to many bad news & pump
Even when halving happen, that won't let bitcoin price reach $2000, only about $700-1300

Maybe we can see it in 2018

and stop all FIAT market, too ...

http://1-ps.googleusercontent.com/xk/HJB7Y9xE-t-vEV2aS_jH234XvR/www.dailydawdle.com/images.dailydawdle.com/chuck-norris-stopping-chainsaw.gif.pagespeed.ce.HGkglvrfTgi9m8XS9ECY.gif

lol I would be happy with $500 :)

It could get there in one afternoon. The following afternoon it could hit 10c. Both are unlikely but a long way away from being impossible. 

current price of bitcoin is 230$, and 2000$ by the end of 2015 seems very hard until there is some big news about bitcoin
its like more then 800% growth by the year that is impossible without some good signs for bitcoins

So you are saying it's possible.

If you compare now to 2013's January and 2013's end of year price, then technically it's possible. It's just unlikely for this year. But no one expected the price spike in 2013 either, really just anything can happen.

Anything can happen, but I think it's unlikely. I'm wondering if this bear market will stretch throughout 2015.

downtrend is active still but all are expecting to see something like 2013 when btc from 20 jump to 1000
they expect to happen again that why they want to see price over 2k if this is possible like in 2013 then price should be over 5k in 2016
but this is only speculation

Unfortunately the 2013 spike was also influenced by the Mt. Gox incident. No guarantee that we'll have anything like that in 2016. But I'm fairly certain that prices in 2016 will be better than now.

let wait and see but im hopping to se price in 2016 of at least 600-700$ seem realistic to me

The downtrend is influenced mainly by the high inflation of BTCs compared to the $ and € during all 2014.
The € actually contracted seriously his MB
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=123.ILM.M.U2.C.LT01.Z5.EUR (http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=123.ILM.M.U2.C.LT01.Z5.EUR)
And the US had a stable MB in the last 6 months (until 24 December 2014 when the Fed printed out 256 Billions of new MB)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml# (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml#)

Just the network didn't grow so fast as the price, not it is time to catch-up.
The price fell, slowly, because the new coins offered to the market were valued more than the market was willing or able to pay. And it eroded the exchange rate slowly, without sudden capitulations.
The big holders are holding big time, probably increasing their holds as the price went down (I know I did).
In the mean time the network transactions grew in number, were stable in value if measured in USD.
This imply, IMHO, the holders are holding and not spending, but more and more users are using Bitcoin as a payment system and this balanced the valume measured in USD.

Adoption from large, small and medium businesses just made Bitcoin more valuable and more attractive for a daily use.
If you can use it just for one type of use, adoption is slow and difficult. More uses it has faster and easier is adoption.
It is like using cash and suddenly one shop start accepting one type of Credit Card. It is improbable people is willing to pay the costs of getting a credit card just to be able to use it at a location alone.
Then other shops start accepting credit card and start giving you some discount if you use them (so they do not need to manage cash). The value of getting a credit card increase and more and more people start acquiring them. And at some time, the shopkeepers start to discourage cash use because it become a nuisance for them.

In my opinion, adoption will be driven mainly by marginal uses and merchants adoption. As a critical mass of merchants adopt Bitcoin AND the inflation of Bitcoin supply fall low enough, the adoption rate will increase faster and faster.

By the looks of it now, I dont think so, lets see what happens after the Let the Bits Drop initiative in Dominic islands, 70,000 btc buyers or 70,000 btc sellers.

Yes.

It's also possible one of each Russian, Asian, and white girls will suddenly burst into my office and not even mind I last 3 seconds. Will it happen? Probably not.

Edit: Make that 4: I wouldn't mind a latina girl to join that exotic mix. Point still stands.

You last only 3 seconds ? damn I thought I was the only one with weiner issues. I can last pretty long its just that I have an average sized one :( :(

it is only(?) 10x increase.

Happened in the end of 2013 and before. Might happens again.

The pumps usually starts out of nowhere and with no known reason

I am waiting for something similar i am excited for when Chuck get's his big green dildo out and beats the bears to death with it.

That will teach erm  8)

The big green one has been beaten, once and forever!

http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/11111/111116297/3035979-2174268-hulkbeaten.gif

will be 10$ and hope i can buy more btc ;D

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Yes yes... when it falls to $10 you can buy as many BTC as you can! And then it will go to $1, because going to $10 at this point means BTC is basically dead... so good luck!

That's right,
It's like on commerce. If a shop sell jeans on-sale for 1 dollar,you can buy 100 of them. But if theyr price is 1 dollar,and first they value was 100 dollar,is cause they are old and passing by.
So yes, if btc reach 10 dollar,buy a lot. It could go always down to 1.

Buy now because they are 20cents a piece (per mBTC), don't wait until it's 10$ a piece.

Right. If it goes bellow 100 it will fall to 1 and then is off.
Hope that this wont happen.