Bitcoin Forum

the price is guaranteed to spike on and around August 2016, that's when the next block reward halving is scheduled to happen (http://bitcoinclock.com/ (http://bitcoinclock.com/)).
this will cut the supply of bitcoins on fiat-btc exchanges sharply driving the price up, likely above the average of the next 2 years.
that's because miners are some of the biggest bitcoin to fiat sellers because they have to cover mining costs.

People will all think the same and try to get in earlier than the other people. Ergo no spike.

Yup.

The question is: How far in advance is this knowledge priced in?

i doubt its priced in right now, no one thinks "i better buy my bitcoins today because in 2016 the supply will drop", people are focused on more recent events.

Halving talk has been here for 6 months and I do believe some people have already bought coins as a sure rise around 2016 seems inevitable. I do hope l'm an early bird and the pump is yet to begin  ;D

a small minority, most sheeple won't wake up to the cut to supply until at least 2015 and the most ignorant will wake up at 2016 when it will be discussed once a week.
that's when the rush to buy will really start driving the price to the moon.

two years later end up with $0, lose everything

bitcoin will never be worth 0.
i guarantee I'll buy all 21 million for 0.001$ per bitcoin (even with today's USD purchasing power)

Since were already talking about it, maybe its already priced in?

I'm accumulating some coins just in case there will be a new bubble the next year or in 2016.

i'm just slowly accumulating dips sub 500.  sure, it could drop to the 300's at some point but that would be a final capitulation dump event, imo.  it should be bought heavily if so and during the next rally sub 500's will look cheap.  it's just that there has been a major turnover in coins the last 9 mo with all the selling that's been going on.  that's good in my book as new hands will be stronger and more patient to experience their chance at a new ramp.  i don't see any problems at all with the protocol and all the while Gavin and company are working on slow, measured improvements to the protocol and continuing to make contingency plans in case of an attack.  nothing's changed in the real world economy.  in fact, things have only gotten closer to a top in all markets.  war may be near and lots of investors are going to lose alot of fiat as tensions rise or if war breaks out further.  they'll all need a safe haven and Bitcoin is proving to be just that.

This is only a portion of why block reward halving increases price.

The other portion is that people who are not at all interested in BTC right now will become interested later. Many of them after 2016. When they become interested, demand rises. Block reward halving reduces supply. We all are aware of what happens when supply is reduced right?

The people who are investing now are almost surely unlikely to price in ALL of the people who will invest post-2016.

great point.  there will always be laggards. 

even those trying to front run haven't gotten started yet.  it's too soon and would fail to price in a possible sudden failure btwn now and then.  unless one really understands all of Bitcoin's many facets in depth, most won't be buying now.  except for some of us.

never going to happen, bitcoin can't touch zero at worst 10-50 dollars range, in 2016 the cost will rise for sure, because of the halving, i can bet my ass on that

Very legit. This is what im doing, cost averaging, putting some monthly, i know it will be worth it at the end. Haters will cry.

This.

I have read quite a few halving talk posts here in the last few weeks. It's still a long way off though.

I am actually already hording for the halving of ~2020: only 6,25btc per block. So, already priced in? No, it will just go gradually up as before.

Careful, that block halving is one of the most anticipated, and therefore priced in, things there are in the Bitcoin ecosystem! What's even worse is when there won't be a bubble, people will be disappointed and start to dump even more.

Does it mean once current minners becoming unprofitable because of increasing difficulty, the price has to rise?

I dont think so, I think the difficulty stop increasing instead (or slighly lowers).

+1

Although I am cursing this decline like I did with the one in 2011, they can be great wealth builders. I'm daytrading a seed capital into a nice btc position by constantly selling and buying back more btc with the proceeds. You have to be disciplined enough to continue doing this no matter what, but as long as bitcoin turns around at some point in the future you'll be sitting on a handsome profit  ;D

yeah, i keep buying small chunks as deep into the 400's as i can every week.  this is the time.

If you anticipate there will be a spike in 2016, why not set aside a certain amount each month (say $20 - 24 X $20 = $480 - close enough to 1 BTC at the going rate)  into a wallet on a computer or device you won't touch and in two years time when the chain of events are right, you can strike while the iron is hot.

Come on man, that is so boring. I want a LARGE btc position when that happens, not just a mediocre one.

lol, +1

That's priced in already. It's a known event, it will happen with 100 % certainty. Therefore it's already priced in one hundred percent.

Glad to see we're all on the same page.  This is just the calm before the storm and I  will be trying to load my wallet before these great prices our not available any more.  I need to figure out a way to pickup more work as soon as possible! 

Really? You give no credit that a failure in the time prior  to the halving would cost quite a bit if it was fully priced in.  Instead people's risk of failure and the halving are currently priced in. I suspect that just as the last halving was priced in in the six months or so prior to the last halving,  there are people that will still buy in with a higher price and a lower risk sometime between now and the next having.  This would imply that the next reward halving is not fully priced in.

Whales like Max Keiser are ready to buy big time any sub 400 BTC, dont panic lol.

He should move that up to sub 500

Pretty sure Keiser and cia are happy to rack even more BTC from weak hands and confused people in general. I would like to think people have more balls to hold but it seems the BTC demographic is full of weako ass hands.

I disagree with people already anticipating this "halving" situation.  I've been following BTC for 2 years and investing in BTC for 1 year now.  This is the first time I've read about it, and I've done a decent amount of research.  Yes, within the loyal followers, but I still run into people (all the time) who haven't heard of BTC.

Anyone seriously into Bitcoin knows how Bitcoin gets it's value and thus the halving imo. Maybe it's because I started with mining.

Difficulty is also dynamic so, halving andless miners can cause difficulty to halve and thus maintaining current supply.

Actually considering picking up a job in McDonalds at the weekends just to buy BTC with the entire wage, I feel it would pay out big time in the future.

No doubt there are a few of us trying to front run the front runners of 2016. But we are few. I'm doing it but mainly because we're at the end of a 9 month bear cycle so as to get an amplifying effect.

All public information is usually priced in.
By that, I mean even the halving of the block reward in 2020.  :P