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Title: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: mem on April 18, 2012, 02:54:07 AM I want to invest some money into mining but atm - all offerings have serious short comings.
All FPGA's with the exception of BFL have a ROI time of over 1.5 years often over 2 years. Unfortunately BFL's have a wait time of 3-4 months which also makes its ROI time over 1 year. Were I to order one now I could expect to start using it August - Sept, just ~2-3 months shy of the reward being halved and I would have waited 4 months not earning anything from my investment. Im looking at buying 1-2 ATI 7970's despite the massive power consumption I can still make money off them until the end of the year (I live in au, power is $0.22c/kwh) and then reuse the cards for gaming and my media pc. My prediction for ~4-5 months into the future: * all FPGA's will drop price 50% to 33% due to being out performed by the latest GPU's again and due to difficulty adjustment. * Several FPGA's will simply be pulled from the market or sold at a loss when their ROI times go past 2 years (nearly there already for quite a few). * China starts thrashing out FPGA's priced to put all western competition out of the market. * Difficulty goes through the roof due to mass amounts of BFL's online and possibly vladmir and other companies as well. ** All current FPGA investors lose out horribly due a massive difficulty spike - ROI times go past 2 years, for large investors possibly 4 years. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: rograz on April 18, 2012, 03:03:13 AM Well you can't really expect them to sell them at a loss, especially when order books are swamped.
Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Beaflag VonRathburg on April 18, 2012, 03:40:26 AM I really like the new ztex quad board and there is a price break at buying them, versus 4x single boards, but... I just put my BFL order in today for an undisclosed amount of singles. Even with the wait period of the BFL singles the ROI for me is still quicker than ordering anything else, receiving it instantly, and mining with it the next three to four months. If the quad Ztex boards were $800 USD I would have bought a quite a few of them instead of the BFL singles as they're more efficient and would have produced a quicker ROI.
I'm really not too sure how the market is going to do with the block reward drop and prices. We can speculate all we want, but in reality we're just going to have to wait it out. That's going to have a direct response on FPGA costs as well. The more profitable mining becomes the higher I see manufacturers slowly driving costs. We'll see.... Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Inspector 2211 on April 18, 2012, 03:44:16 AM You can't really blame board manufacturers for trying to make a profit. It's called capitalism.
If you want to have an inexpensive FPGA farm, design your own PCB and have the boards manufactured and assembled in China. You don't even have to come up with your own bitstream - you can take one of the existing ones... Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: mem on April 18, 2012, 03:59:27 AM You can't really blame board manufacturers for trying to make a profit. It's called capitalism. Ahh hurr duurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. No shit sherlock :P You cant really blame me for breathing air its called living. my point is that they are running the risk of losing money with current prices and production volume. Their ventures may simply not be profitable if they cannot shift enough volume in the next 6 months. Investors venture would also most likely move from a ROI of 1 year to an ROI of at least 2, possibly 3. If/Once the price tanks or difficulty sky rockets they will be left holding a warehouse of specialized devices whose only use is to lose money unless you have access to free electricity (ie solar). Well you can't really expect them to sell them at a loss, especially when order books are swamped. Their order books are not swapped, they have less than 100 orders - for any company Id call that peanuts. I'm really not too sure how the market is going to do with the block reward drop and prices. We can speculate all we want, but in reality we're just going to have to wait it out. That's going to have a direct response on FPGA costs as well. The more profitable mining becomes the higher I see manufacturers slowly driving costs. We'll see.... Indeed, I will be interested to see how quickly your order turns up. Im still considering ordering one for a test myself, Id like to order 20 but alas their shipping times would need to be quicker for my to avoid a a long ROI. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: organofcorti on April 18, 2012, 06:18:49 AM Opinions are like assholes. Everyone likes the sound of their own but not anyone else's? Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: DiabloD3 on April 18, 2012, 06:26:27 AM Opinions are like assholes. Everyone like the sound of their own but not anyone else's? Not many can play Dueling Banjos Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Syke on April 18, 2012, 07:12:08 AM All FPGA's with the exception of BFL have a ROI time of over 1.5 years often over 2 years. I picked up some Icaruses that'll break even in about 1 year. I expect them to last at least 2 years which puts the investment at over 100% return. I consider that most excellent. If/Once the price tanks or difficulty sky rockets they will be left holding a warehouse... Nobody has a warehouse of these things. Everyone is just doing small runs that are sold as soon as the orders are open for them. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: mem on April 18, 2012, 07:20:36 AM Opinions are like assholes. So tell me you smelly opinion - whats your arsehole ? I picked up some Icaruses that'll break even in about 1 year. I expect them to last at least 2 years which puts the investment at over 100% return. I consider that most excellent. What is your power charged at if you dont mind me asking ? looking at TP's calculator it puts the Icarus at 467.9 days for ROI if you get free power. So in reality if you want 100% return you should be looking at 900+ days. http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com/?difficulty=1577913.4857&hashrate=380.00&exchangerate=5.02&bitcoinsperblock=50.00&rigcost=569.00&powerconsumption=20.00&powercost=0.00&investmentperiod=365 How was shipping for your icarus ? quick ? Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Syke on April 18, 2012, 08:08:41 AM What is your power charged at if you dont mind me asking ? .08/kwh looking at TP's calculator it puts the Icarus at 467.9 days for ROI if you get free power. So in reality if you want 100% return you should be looking at 900+ days. http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com/?difficulty=1577913.4857&hashrate=380.00&exchangerate=5.02&bitcoinsperblock=50.00&rigcost=569.00&powerconsumption=20.00&powercost=0.00&investmentperiod=365 I got in on the bulk order, so the cost was only $469. I expect with adequate cooling I can run a 400 mhps bitstream on them. That puts the ROI at about 378 days. How was shipping for your icarus ? quick ? They haven't arrived yet, but ETA looks like about 3 weeks. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: mem on April 18, 2012, 11:59:22 AM Damn that is cheap power, Im so jealous.
Shame the icarus board has been discontinued, it does seem like a viable option especially with the cheaper power consumption, Good luck with your mining ;D Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: bitlane on April 18, 2012, 02:11:50 PM I am interested to see what Lancelot brings to the table, seeing as how Icarus was such a success (and learning experience for the designer/engineer).
I have a feeling BFL might be in trouble if they are unable to satisfy the needs of the masses before ngzhang launches his new would-be? hashing monster. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Chefnet on April 18, 2012, 02:23:40 PM 719€ (25+ without vat in a company) for 1 Ztex Quad: 0,54 BTC per Day = 2€ (energy costs already removed) per day = 719/2 = 359,5 days ROI
Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: spiccioli on April 18, 2012, 02:42:21 PM 719€ (25+ without vat in a company) for 1 Ztex Quad: 0,54 BTC per Day = 2€ (energy costs already removed) per day = 719/2 = 359,5 days ROI No, it's longer since around december you drop to 1 EUR/DAY if BTC price does not double. And 25 quads it's a 18K EUR investment (even more if you have to pay VAT). spiccioli Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Syke on April 18, 2012, 03:47:38 PM No, it's longer since around december you drop to 1 EUR/DAY if BTC price does not double. I'm not too worried about the reward dropping. Either the price will go up or the difficulty will go down (or both). Either way, the profitability will still be good for mining with energy efficient FPGAs. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Buckwheet on April 18, 2012, 05:37:40 PM I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut.
Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Mousepotato on April 18, 2012, 08:45:16 PM I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut. How much power does each one of those 2.5 GH/s rigs suck down? Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Buckwheet on April 18, 2012, 11:45:06 PM I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut. How much power does each one of those 2.5 GH/s rigs suck down? Kill-A-Watt says 1050. That is with no voltage changes or memory downclock. Edit to add: I pay $0.06 per KW. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: rograz on April 19, 2012, 02:40:12 AM Edit to add: I pay $0.06 per KW. Hand those prices over to me right know, I have a soldering gun and I'm not afraid to use it >:( Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: BCMan on April 20, 2012, 03:02:23 AM Opinions are like assholes. So tell me you smelly opinion - whats your arsehole ? Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: zvs on April 21, 2012, 08:05:48 PM I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut. recent prices on ebay for used 7970's: apr 17th - $415 apr 18th - $470 apr 18th - $530 apr 18th - $510 apr 19th - $423 (+ "variable" shipping rate) apr 19th - $435 (+ "variable" shipping rate) apr 19th - $405 apr 19th - $435 apr 20th - $420 apr 20th - $450 apr 21st - $515 (+ "variable shipping rate) so you could sell those eight for maybe $475/ea on eBay (being generous), subtract the 9% eBay electronics fee + the paypal fee.... end up with around $430 (more likely, $20 or $30 less)? you're down $800 since feb 23rd, 150BTC doesn't even cover that Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Buckwheet on April 21, 2012, 08:25:27 PM I ordered with BFL on Feb. 23 and still don't have a single.(Not a complaint) On that same day I ordered 8 7970s for $529 each and they were up and running two days later on the 25th. Each machine is getting 2.5GH/s so I added 5GH/s on the 25th. I believe those machines have been paid something like 150BTC. I am pretty happy with my choice to order GPUs when looking at the possible unknown with the reward cut. recent prices on ebay for used 7970's: apr 17th - $415 apr 18th - $470 apr 18th - $530 apr 18th - $510 apr 19th - $423 (+ "variable" shipping rate) apr 19th - $435 (+ "variable" shipping rate) apr 19th - $405 apr 19th - $435 apr 20th - $420 apr 20th - $450 apr 21st - $515 (+ "variable shipping rate) so you could sell those eight for maybe $475/ea on eBay (being generous), subtract the 9% eBay electronics fee + the paypal fee.... end up with around $430 (more likely, $20 or $30 less)? you're down $800 since feb 23rd, 150BTC doesn't even cover that I wouldn't sell them on Ebay first of all. I have gaming forums I belong to where I could get $450-$475 pretty easily with payments that are fee free. So lets just say $450 for each card. I am down $80 per card. I purchased an $80 motherboard for each rig, and a $8 stick of RAM, and I got the processors and harddrives/cables as freebies from work as they were junking out machines. I purchased a $250 powersupply for $200 and I know I can re-sell for $200 for each rig. Taking all that into account I would be down $640 in cards, $0 in supplies, $160 in boards, and $16 in RAM. So a grand total of $810 in "loss" right now. That 150BTC that I just sold for $5.30 per covers most of the hardware depreciation cost so far. On top of that I have none of the Singles I bought since then. So I would have made zero money if I had just bought all BFL singles. I have no idea when the singles are going to show up. I am still satisfied with my purchase of the 7970s. I played around with voltages and I am now down to 940W per 2.5GH/s. Extrapolate your numbers until December 23 assuming $5 per BTC, 940W@$.06 per KW. Set the resale value of BFL to $0, and the resale value of the 7970 at $250. Let me know what you come up with. Also set the delivery date of my BFL singles to May 1st at the earliest. Then move the price of recovery of the BFL single up until you get a break even point with the 7970s. Let me know what it would have to resell for, and when, for it to have been a better purchase than the 7970s. I bought the XFX Black Edition 7970s, and I might have to go to $425 due to the price drop. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Shadow383 on April 22, 2012, 12:16:22 AM I want to invest some money into mining but atm - all offerings have serious short comings. All FPGA's with the exception of BFL have a ROI time of over 1.5 years often over 2 years. Unfortunately BFL's have a wait time of 3-4 months which also makes its ROI time over 1 year. Were I to order one now I could expect to start using it August - Sept, just ~2-3 months shy of the reward being halved and I would have waited 4 months not earning anything from my investment. Im looking at buying 1-2 ATI 7970's despite the massive power consumption I can still make money off them until the end of the year (I live in au, power is $0.22c/kwh) and then reuse the cards for gaming and my media pc. My prediction for ~4-5 months into the future: * all FPGA's will drop price 50% to 33% due to being out performed by the latest GPU's again and due to difficulty adjustment. * Several FPGA's will simply be pulled from the market or sold at a loss when their ROI times go past 2 years (nearly there already for quite a few). * China starts thrashing out FPGA's priced to put all western competition out of the market. * Difficulty goes through the roof due to mass amounts of BFL's online and possibly vladmir and other companies as well. ** All current FPGA investors lose out horribly due a massive difficulty spike - ROI times go past 2 years, for large investors possibly 4 years. This made me laugh. Do you really think bitcoin mining is a big deal in the FPGA industry? Sure, we'll see repurposing of obsolete hardware (like in the BFL singles) but major FPGA manufacturers designing bitcoin mining hardware? No chance. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: Tomatocage on April 22, 2012, 02:49:07 AM This made me laugh. Do you really think bitcoin mining is a big deal in the FPGA industry? Sure, we'll see repurposing of obsolete hardware (like in the BFL singles) but major FPGA manufacturers designing bitcoin mining hardware? No chance. Gotta love security through obscurity. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: ElectricMucus on April 22, 2012, 10:42:41 PM FPGAs get new generations as well, as fast as GPUs.
They will always be more power effective and less cost effective. We are just using cheapo FPGAs which are mainly educational products slapped on prototyping boards. The industry either uses the high end range (1-5k USD per piece) in single quantities or low end stuff for consumer electronics. High performance FPGAs will never be cost effective for bitcoin mining because after a certain volume you quickly arrive at costs equal to ASICs masks. Time will tell when the first ones come out. But this isn't the end of the road either since bitcoin is the first application where wafer scale integration makes sense. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: BlackPrapor on April 23, 2012, 04:31:24 AM * all FPGA's will drop price 50% to 33% due to being out performed by the latest GPU's again and due to difficulty adjustment Seriously? ::) Get back to school and study the math....just another troll on my ignore list ;DTitle: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: mem on April 23, 2012, 05:34:27 AM * all FPGA's will drop price 50% to 33% due to being out performed by the latest GPU's again and due to difficulty adjustment Seriously? ::) Get back to school and study the math....just another troll on my ignore list ;Dseriously - you disagree with someone and their instantly a troll ? You kids that fail to grasp memes but shoehorn them into every retort you possibly can. Shouldnt you be screeching on xbox live ? Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: ARapalo on April 26, 2012, 12:54:48 AM FPGA's will eventually get cheaper once china starts churning out clones :D. This will force current FPGA manufacturers to drop prices.
Supply and demand. So for now, I'll hold out until it hits mainstream prices. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: dropt on April 26, 2012, 06:56:20 AM FPGA's will eventually get cheaper once china starts churning out clones :D. This will force current FPGA manufacturers to drop prices. Supply and demand. So for now, I'll hold out until it hits mainstream prices. Methinks you're going to be waiting a long time then. Don't see china making counterfit FPGAs anytime soon; Last I checked they weren't making counterfit AMD/Intel processors and that's a much more lucrative market. Title: Re: FPGA's pricing themselves out of the market Post by: mem on April 26, 2012, 08:14:26 AM FPGA's will eventually get cheaper once china starts churning out clones :D. This will force current FPGA manufacturers to drop prices. Supply and demand. So for now, I'll hold out until it hits mainstream prices. Methinks you're going to be waiting a long time then. Don't see china making counterfit FPGAs anytime soon; Last I checked they weren't making counterfit AMD/Intel processors and that's a much more lucrative market. I had a quick scout myself, they all seem stuck on the Spartan 3 atm - definitely no cheap spartan 6's floating around. |