Bitcoin Forum

Team X current tie average this season is 1/3 and bookmaker A offers 5.1. Would you take this bet based on the fact it provides value? 1/4 > 1/3 = profit of 1.1 unit over the course of 4 bets

I would need more information.

What is the bet being offered, and what does "5.1" mean?

If you are saying that you will win a bet 1/3 of the time, then you would make all bets at 3.0 (+200) or better.

The bet is team x and y to tie.

Odds of 5.1 means a bet will return 5.1 multiplied by the original stake for a total profit of 4.1.

1 unit x 5.1 = 5.1 - 1 = 4.1

In this case the value is +1.1 since team x has an average tie for this season of 1 in 3 games.

Think of the "value" in value betting as a hypothesis based on historical data.

Yes exactly. However, value bets are calculated based on historical performance of one or multiple teams. We are not working with fixed odds (such as dice or RNG roulette).