Bitcoin Forum

Over the time I saw so many people cash out and move on with their lives or just lose interest, I saw many who lost a good amount of money and I saw few who made huge profits.... this forum is losing its traffic and even existing members are contributing less than before or already quit the forum, everything point to this cycle happening again, which imply to Bitcoin's price last year being a real bubble, at least this is how a bubble exactly looks like.

even the Google trend is bearish, the search for Bitcoin is going down to pre-2013 bubble

https://i.imgur.com/ngWzZ5V.png https://i.imgur.com/M8FuE9U.png



I don't think Bitcoin is finished but I think we stepped to the mainstream that everyone was asking for, and a 100x a year wont really happen again, so assuming that Bitcoin will not be taken by something better or by a technical issue and assuming that using it will become easier and more secure, there will be a healthy and constant growth in the future (once we reach the bottom which is still far).


right now, everything points that Bitcoin's fundamentals are still working, and the transaction chart points that existing holders started using their bitcoins more than before, one explanation is that there is more and more places to spend your bitcoins at, and the the bearish market makes people want to spend their coins more than hoard them hoping they will be worth more in the short term.

https://i.imgur.com/IaOe9LT.png

People sleep when the moon is shinning.  That does not mean going to sleep makes the moon come out.

Price and forum activity have no effect on one another

I hope your analysis is correct OP and this brings us to a new phase of maturity with less PnD alts and the surviving ones moving to acceptance and usability.

As this cools dows, I think it's obvious BTC will rise again but don't ask me how much or when!

you missed the whole point.

Agree and interestingly I am also seeing the reddit r/bitcoin subscribers count go down a few times in a matter of minutes before resuming much slower uptrend. Than means people cancelling their subscription.
I think the final capitulation purge is near - and it will bring us back to the 200$. Then it might takes us many months to go from there to ATH.

I don't think drop in forum activity will inevitably points to a crash. The stagnant price of bitcoin and the lack of exciting news drove members to spend more time on other aspects of their lives away from bitcoin. Some may have joined other Bitcoin forums in their local language.

This price plateau is good for bitcoin. Holders of bitcoin are more willing to spend their coins because their coins are slowly loosing purchasing power. People spending bitcoin is what makes the ecosystem grow.

Bitcoin is good for buying weed anonymously.

And that's all there is.

Nothing has changed since the start of the bubble, no other killer apps.

why are you even bothering to be here and post this then?  ???

It's pretty amazing for moving money internationally in a few minutes.

I guess it's clear that he's into buying weed anonymously. Too bad he can't see beyond that.

Ironically it's not so anonymous now that he's told everyone on the internet that he likes doing it ;)

Except, he didn't.

Not quite!

What is the purpose of those graphs? To make the post more unreadable that it already is?  :-X

You need to ask yourself: What does the average joe need BTC for? How could he benefit from it in this point in time, beyond requiring a huge bet in the price skyrocketing in the next decades?

Unless you live in a US/Europe-centric bubble, the average Joe doesn't even have a credit/debit card.  The average Joe however does have a cell phone, and many people even have smart phones.  Other phone based payment systems in developing economies charge fees near 20%.  Bitcoin will blow them out of the water, while also opening up new markets to existing online merchants.  It will also reduce the barriers to entry for new online merchants that wish to serve these markets.

Many developing countries have relatively cheap domestic payment systems like Mpesa in East Africa or Alipay in China. I don't see bitcoin forming a threat to those systems. Fees are nowhere near 20% and you don't have to worry about the insane bitcoin volatility.

Nowhere near 20% huh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa#Cost.2C_transaction_charges.2C_statistics

Look at the lower rates (0.16%) - between registered users. That is what most people pay. Pretty cheap compared to the volatility risk of BTC + exchange commisions.

Pre-2013 bubble? Which one? The January-April bubble or the October-December bubble?

What about the Great Bubble of 2011?

In my opinion, what is happening now is not all that different from what occurred in late 2011 or June 2013. A few had made a lot, a lot had lost a bunch, and public interest had dropped off. Many pessimists and trolls brayed about the end of Bitcoin.

The protocol is still strong. Venture capital still pours in. The infrastructure continues to grow. Only a minority of the general public even knows that Bitcoin exists, let alone participates.

Bitcoin is still young. We must all be patient.

jmho

Right... because the average transaction is $800 ::).  The lowest rates are only available to those sending large sums.

I posted the chart for a reason, so you can clearly see the time I was pointing to (October-September), read the whole post, I did point the strong fundamentals and large utility, but all of that still points you to the price of Bitcoin being a bubble.

Maybe too many speculators jumped in and caused that bubble while the infrastructure was not prepared and didn't nearly reflect that value... I think the price will catch to the infrastructure and it will start a healthy and constant growth with less volatility in the short term., this is what mainstream is by the way.

Yes, we are saying the same thing... the Oct-Sept bubble is bursting just like the Jan-June 2013 bubble burst or the 2011 bubble burst before that, and for largely the same reasons. Too many speculators jumped in, the infrastructure was still far from ready, and the price got ahead of itself.

I personally think we're still a long way from constant growth with less volatility and still have at least another bubble and crash (and possibly several) as the next waves of the general public learn about and come to terms with Bitcoin.

I think a big percentage of tech savvy people are already on the ride, I am in the IT business and it took me some time to get into Bitcoin, but at this stage so many people know what is Bitcoin, yet they fear trying it or investing in it, simply because of that volatility and all the heist/security breaches they hear about.

The next challenge would be making it so secure, available and simple to use for the average Joe, maybe even provide some kind of insurance in case of heist/theft... only then expect the adoption to massively continue... but I don't think this will make a bubble, because there is 13 million existing coin already and at one point a good percentage of this will be liquid and usable when the market is ready, so in a mainstream market considering the already existing coins and with this kind of inflation (13-15 % a year) there could be a slow and constant growth...but no bubbles.

Truncated idea or just accidentally hit the post button?

yes I accidetlly did hit that post botton , I didnt read what I wrote.... fixed thanks   ;D

Agreed.

Hiding the wallet.dat in the appdata folder will put the average Joe off because it's a hidden folder the average Joe cannot easily find.

Just stating the facts.

Did it achieve any success in other fields like remittances people mention? Not even the Chinese use it anymore to evade capital controls, too cumbersome and they got easier ways.

Still so much potential in bitcoin. Maybe next year we gonna see a breakthrough. Not just another merchant adding it to a long list of payment options so early adopters can indirectly dump it.

 

congratulations sir, you win the internet today.

great chart analysis mmitech.

The google trend follow the price and not the opposite, when the price of bitcoin explodes and goes up, many sites post news about bitcoin and new users discover bitcoin because of that.

Then they search for it on google and read more about it.  ;)

hey look.  the bounce rate is down 18% and the time spent is up 7%

more new people are staying and for longer... seems like good news to me

You can be 100% about this. Did not happen for years anyway.

Not exactly sure how this predicts anything. People start searching after price has moved a significant amount. I even I, as a LTC miner, wasn't paying attention at all until I saw "Bitcoin surges past $600" somewhere in the 2013 bubble.

Good morning, I wont remind you about what I said a couple of days ago but I will leave this here...

less than 13KBTC to under $40 and more than 15KBTC to $600... how much scary is that ?

https://i.imgur.com/xz7fRA3.png
https://i.imgur.com/0fIof9Z.png