Bitcoin Forum

Something about this bearmarket just seems terribly off to me.

I would never believe the person who said we'd be at $350 at this time back in the beginning of 2014.
If bitcoin were to ever fail, now would be the time, not when we have rallied and peaked at $5k+.

I know there's a saying who goes that we should buy when there's blood on the street but there really isn't blood on the street. Just an asset dropping price and nobody willing to buy. We're hitting record average lows even with all this "hype" and good news.
I really can't see bitcoin come back "harder then ever" which is what we need...

Also Stupid trolls like falllling and co. have been right all along while smart people have been wrong. Something is off.

No, it's not. This is quite normal market behavior:

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/members/tutorial/images/fig_2.gif

I would only worry if bitcoin drops below $85 (wave 4 low and max target of C).

This thread is a drop of blood in the street. Just one more drop along with many other posters who have lost faith.

Believe me, i'm a buyer

I am considering taking huge loans at $280
It's just that i'll be incredibly fucked if it goes wrong

But you seem to have it all figured out. Maybe you can tell me if bitcoin were to EVER fail, when would it happen? Would we revisit the ATH ($1200) before we go down to $0-$10 again??
Will it be a long slide down and bitcoin just fading out with no bull traps?? Or will it be a bumpy ride going up a couple hundred dollars, down and up again till it finally dies out maybe some time in 2016?

You seem to imply bitcoin has a 100% chance of suceeding (If technical fails and broken protocol would never occur that is)

Btw, that bitcoin will die out seems highly unrealistic for me too

I'm getting ready and uploading more fiat to my stamp account :)

If I take loans and invest 'em and this goes right, then geez... I would make alot of fuckin money (Prices are so ridicolously cheap right now)

I can't imagine going from a broke retard to dollar millionaire in less then a month (the time it would take for a bubble to pop)

Don't, just don't.

Close your eyes and picture yourself in financial ruin for a second (a very possible scenario considering the state of BTC market right now if you buy with those loans).
You don't want to go there.

Why won't you buy now? This is not cheap enough?  ???

This is the thought pattern of a pathological gambler. Stop right there sir, I'm serious.

Well huge loans might be a exaggeration

I'm thinking like $20k

Guys, seriously, are you fucking out of your minds?

"If it goes wrong I'll go live under a bridge, but it it goes right imma be rich!"   ??????


Some of you are just asking for trouble, this is not a fucking game.

Calm yourself podyx.

What is more likely, that this is a technical bear market following a 100x bull run being gamed by big players who are building large positions for the impending rise into the mainstream that half a billion dollars of VC funding, impending US regulation and an ETF about to be approved will bring. Or that in a sea of increasing adoption, rapidly growing infrastructure globally, growing merchant adoption, rising transactions and volumes bitcoin is suddenly dying and every single person on bitcointalk other than trolls, newbies who dont know better and technical bearish traders failed to get the memo.

The trolls are just sockpuppet accounts for traders who are short trying to exaggerate downward momentum by manipulating emotions and encouraging selling. A few posters state that influencing sentiment on this forum has no effect upon the price. I would say that manipulating the price and also manipulating sentiment on this forum in a coordinated fashion will exaggerate price movements. If there are only 300,000 to 1 million users with double digit holdings of bitcoin and only 50,000 btc on the exchanges setting the price then convincing a few hundred people with weak hands to sell could make quite a difference to the orderbooks. This is the most viewed and visited bitcoin forum on the internet I believe.

If you are getting emotional either partially or completely sell at a loss to reduce your anxiety, turn off the computer for three months or view this as a buying opportunity and purchase a greater % of the bitcoin network when you feel the price is bottoming.

The reason the quote about buying when blood is in the streets is true, is that human emotion at price extremes like this (and it may get more extreme) makes a normal person want to sell and run, also known as the fight or flight emotional response, when if they thought rationally they should be heavily accumulating. It is that irrational feeling that the price could literally fall to zero you must control. It is no surprise that the trolls are loudly calling for double digit bitcoins and the price falling to $1.

An interesting metric posted in the last few days is the top 100 bitcoin addresses and their balances. These real superwhales are not selling or reducing their coins, they are increasing them on this price weakness. Also bitcoin days destroyed have not spiked suggesting long term early adopter holdings are not being moved to exchanges or moved.

Few bitcoin bulls or holders would have predicted the severity of this bear market but what the features and potential of bitcoin that made it attractive at 400 - 1166 have not changed.

COI: Bitcoin long term holder.

Podyx u've been conned by snake oil salesmen..

Lol ;D It's just how I do things. I either go all in or nothing
It's just my nature. I'm having a hard time having any form of balance in my life because of this

appreciate the post

Very bad idea. Taking a loan on something so speculative and uncertain is a deep stage of gambling addiction.
You should seek help.

About the other part, whatever bitcoiners think, there's just not enough people out there willing to pay $500 or $1000 for a bitcoin.
Bitcoin might not die, it might stick around and succeed as a marginal currency with price in a single or double digits, but even in 100s is enough to screw you big time.

Just look at bitcoinity. We are at the turning point. What happens next will determine the fate of bitcoin.

1. Price goes up. Renewed interest in bitcoin. Mass media attention. Influx of new users brings success to all the startups.

2. Price hovers where it is today. Mass uncertainty. Some startups will die out due to lack of growth.

3. Price crashes. Hash rate plummets. Startups fail. Companies stop accepting btc. Mass panic. Suicides.

Mark this date on your calendar gentlemen: October 10th. For on the 11th we will have already headed down one of these paths.

3.

But going leverage short in this price area is a safe game, right? Lol

Very dramatic yokosan! New users don't buy in at the depths of a bear market. It is the large speculators and traders who buy down here. The rapidly rising price of a bull run with media attention that brings users in droves using easy on ramps like Circle or possibly an ETF from their 401k's.

So I would say that you are right and bitcoin as a global currency and digital payment system is in trouble if the market cap decreases significantly and if large speculators decide not to step in this time and heavily buy the bottom. I think they will.

Bitcoin is officially dead.

I read and study the uses of bitcoin and the adaptation and everyday it is being incorporated by businesses and used by more people.

It is still going down and will quite possibly fall back to pennies because in reality it costs money to make and like the US Dollar has no intrinsic value.

When it starts costing more to create it than you can sell it for it is over I wonder how much in electrical costs one bit coin is.

Bitcoin™, dead since 2011

http://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/all/

Until these posts disappear with people claiming that we are at the bottom or that we are about to start a bull run, or that this crash is just like previous crashes and that we are about to start an uptrend, we are not at the bottom.

Bitcoin can go alot lower than you imagine. Regardless of the merits of the technology, it could go to zero. There doesn't seem to be any acknowledgement of that.

I agree. Preliminary models point to the Bitcoin "super-cycle" looking like this, to be repeated many times during the price-discovery phase:

http://www.algebra.com/cgi-bin/plot-formula.mpl?expression=graph%28300%2C300%2C-6%2C6%2C-60%2C60%2C+x%5E3%2Bx%5E2-20x%29&x=0003

... And we are just halfway through.

Basic intuition as follows:

Bitcoin has a spectacular multi-year bull market which attracts countless speculators ("Bitcoin has always yielded positive returns YTD since its inception!"). These speculators reinforce the trend and cause the price to overshoot its underlying appreciation. Mega-bubble super-cycle reaches a dizzying peak and collapses. At a critical price point, bearish sentiment takes over and begins invalidating suspected trend-lines one by one. This causes speculators to begin to leave to market for the first time, and true fiat outflow begins. Now, it is for the first time ever. No technological asset, revolutionarily disruptive or otherwise, can consistently yield returns. Bitcoin must have a negative ROI YTD eventually. This is not the death of Bitcoin, just a large-scale variant on the smaller bubble patterns we have seen.

:D :D :D :D :D :D

you are sayin the next 24hrs are critical ?

Can't say it's dying but it's finding it's actual value after that mt.gox and other crap

 "Price crashes. Hash rate plummets. Startups fail. Companies stop accepting btc. Mass panic. Suicides."

Why can't I stop laughing!?! ;D

How the market has gone the last 10 months is pretty much the same of how I would expect the market to go if bitcoin were to die out. But I still cannot see how it would just die. There's just so much potential

I guess it's clutch decision soon...

Or... the price rise, champagne fall from the heavens, doors would open and velvet ropes would part.

Don't worry.  Bitcoin is not dying out.  It's just massively overbought by people salivating at the mouth at $10k, $100k, and $1M bitcoins.

The same idiots that have constantly been complaining about the declining BTC price have also constantly been lending coin to shortsellers. Obviously. It has been a ballooning business all year.

I think break even is around $200 per coin.  Not sure, I quit mining like most months ago.

My prediction.  Bitcoin price will oscillate near break even for mining.  It will shake more and more out until we are left with just 1 or 2 chip/rig makers.  I would guess break even for mining might get to around $100 per coin.

Not the peer-to-peer network needed to make bitcoin viable. 

Yup, visualizing your goals is what what you should do every morning.  ::)

This,
If you want some more money to invest in btc go suck some cock or sell some weed on silk road.

well said inca.

can you update the graph of the top balances?

And despite the severity of this bear market, we're *still* well within the "norm" of bitcoin boom-fallout percentages.

Let's phrase it this way: If the price had just gone in a straight line from where it was 1yr ago to where it is today, would you be feeling the same way?

Or would you perhaps be talking about how much infrastructure development, VC funding, financial sector interest, and big-name acceptance has happened in the past year, and how impressive that really is for this 5yr old technology?

I don't think bitcoin is dying out. Adoption is growing and you can spend bitcoins a lot more places now. I think one of the issues is merchants dumping their bitcoin for fiat. Increasing number of merchants equals more selling off of bitcoins as people spend them.

Adoption rate is slowing down. There was an explosion of new users in 2013. The same cannot be said for 2014. Even people who were in BTC before are leaving now, which is indicative of a stagnant market. Merchants don't factor into the equation, with the exception of darknets and illegal marketplaces.

+1337
Todamoon or bust

(even because it would rise again from the minute after I sodl)

The thing here is that BitPay or other processor don't sell their coins to an exchange, they either buy OTC from large holders or miners if they need to.

There isn't this merchant downward pressure at all. The bearwhales told this ideia and then everyone started saying this shit.

I suspect that the biggest bearwhales are the perps of the major scams here who are still free as birds. If you add up the major btc scams it's probably >1 million btc

Thin market, microscopic volume, very few big bulls, tons of small and tiny ones = perfect for short selling.

why is keep on dropping? man seriously i lost $40 already.. I can only imagine people holding on more.

Bitcoin will continue having some utility for certain cultists, bulltards and cryptogeeks -- for at least a couple of years more. They'll trade it among themselves for single digit prices, while the Average Joe -- being smarter than the cultists -- stays away from the digital Beanie Babies.

The age of triple digits will be a bygone era by the time 2015 hits us, and in that year Bitcoin will also crash to somewhere closer to its "true price", which is in the single digits.

This is what the Post-Gox Bitcoin world looks like.

I don't understand this.  Anyone who is using spending btc with merchants surely would be buying an equal amount on the backend to replace what is spent, to help stabilize the price?  Why would any bitcoin enthusiast reduce one's holding of bitcoin now when prices have moved so much lower for so long?

I tend to think alot of people who got into it for a quick buck are giving up hope and are tired of waiting.

Yeah, and the Draugr are also known for their intellectual might. I mean come on, Joe Sixpack is levelling maybe one or two above orangutans and baboons.

i hope the prices drop till $100 so I can re-course my mistake 1 year ago. If it doesnt whatevers, as long I have plan to get more bitcoin right.

Time to buy. It is clear from this interview that the ETF will be approved.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/arthur-levitt-on-sec-s-edgar-filing-system-and-bitcoin-YVtI25q8Tn~vJ2NWIawrpw.html

Do not Bitcoin speculate with borrowed money. Do not Bitcoin speculate with money you need in the short term.

I consider the money I put into Bitcoin as a sunk cost. I occasionally alternate between fiat and BTC using around 5-10% of my coins. I do not put more Fiat in and i do not take Fiat out. If i rum out of fiat - i sell some btc to give me a gambling fund. I dont trade often (maybe a few trades per month) - but my long term goal is to be all in BTC and increase the BTC I hold.

i can assure you that the thinly traded volume and price traded on some exchanges is only part of the picture. account managers at some exchanges use the KYC/AML  to directly contact larger buyers/sellers(100+ coins) and put together off-exchange deals - even though the exchange is still the broker. Do not be fooled by the volume and the fact that small amounts of money can affect the price.

Wall street traders ARE here, and they are taking advantage of this unregulated market to make money in terms of both Fiat and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is special. It isn't going anywhere and if you think the price is going lower then sell some of your coins and try to buy them at a lower price point. Dont throw more money at it - unless you are DCA buying a small amount each month as a long term investment. I also believe many of the current holders are selling to find a buy back point and grow their stash whilst minimising their risk of 'going to zero' or seeing their dollar value diminish too greatly.

Do you have any proof of this? Everyone is saying that BTC is being bought up like hotcakes off exchanges through localbtc, wall street, VCs, gabi $200 million(600k+ btc at current price), etc. Now you're suggesting that even exchanges are selling off-exchange? I'm skeptical.

What I always find most remarkable about BTC trading action is the unbelievably limp volume. In stocks or forex this is just pocket lint. Understandably big money investors and Wall St. avoid this unregulated and scam-ridden marketplace and its primitive and sleazy infrastructure.

The interview does not suggest that at all. This ex regulator stresses how exciting the blockchain technology is, but also stresses that retail investors need to be protected from btc value volatility.  He is more likely to call for the ETF to be blocked than supported.

I agree with Mr. Big.

I'm a BTC newbie, and I see that:

(1) BTC is not truly anonymous, even if you run a heavy wallet

(2) it took 44 hours for me to install the heavy wallet Armory, that's too long

(3) I switched to the light wallet Multibit, and an online wallet at blocckchain.info, but I found out you cannot do 'microtransactions' easily in bitcoin.  I though you could send less than a dollar (USD) easily but you cannot, in fact with one transaction you lose half your principle (1 mBTC), see this post:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=840432

Long story short:

BTC is not really anonymous; switching to a light wallet like Multibit is even less anonymous, and BTC has too many transaction fees for microtransactions.

I hear they are proposing to raise even higher the minimum transaction fee from 0.10 mBTC, which will further hinder doing microtransactions.

TonyT

This post actually hits the nail.

What I think is that Bitcoin was way overpumped in 2013 by speculators, willy-bot and China jumping in. No wonder price came this low now, can't say I expected that, I was thinking it will float around 450 USD for some time before next bullrun. Now I'm not sure and even two-digit value is possible.

What I don't doubt is, if Bitcoin stays here technically, there can be 10x bullruns because of all the good things it offers compared to fiat economy. Imagine for example some worldwide financial crysis hits in 2016, along with block-reward halving? With built infrastructure than can receive amounts of fiat needed, that would be enough for another bubble, not even big money is needed. I've read about some predictions that 2016 will be the year of great recession, certanly not for Bitcoin then.....

If you focus only on price, it is so.

Come back from where? It never went anywhere. Bitcoin is here, way stronger that was 10 months ago. So much progress that was made in last 10 months was never done in past.

That might be top 3 favorite quotes on this board. :)

The problem is that the price need to stay on a slight upward trend for miners. Next halvening is in 2016. Very difficult to say what will happen. But I guess that once the inflation will be a bit lower, the trend might invert if there is more and more people to use Bitcoin.
Don't forget about the $ gaining value as well.

We should stop replying this thread. It's like big FUD on the title.
Everybody is slowly dying out, like you and me. The question is what will Bitcoin thrive and evolve, even reborn with whole new 2.0 and side chains stuff.

The minor price movements are speculators day trading

I'll only be worried when Bitcoin hits $1.

If Bitcoin reaches $1, it will also be the end of Bitcoin. It will only reach such low levels if it fails. I guess $260 is the bottom after which it has to bounce back and when it does there's no stopping it

Some people see it as an investment opportunity, but maybe that's not the feeling of the majority of the speculators

We had a 5 year bull market..... maybe a long term bear market makes sense..... I mean, can't be that easy to get rich, can it?

Looks like I was right afterall??