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Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Devin Chow on October 14, 2014, 05:35:56 AM



Title: ..
Post by: Devin Chow on October 14, 2014, 05:35:56 AM
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Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: jaybits on October 14, 2014, 05:39:13 AM
I think BearWhale feels great with Millions in the bank.  Simple as that.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: ANTIcentralized on October 14, 2014, 05:40:13 AM
The bearwhale would not need to use dozens of accounts, he would only need to use one account in addition to the one he used to place his sell order.

I believe that he was probably trying to push down the price artificially in order to buy bitcoin at an artificially low price.

I would guess that he probably made a bot/script to buy up to 30k bitcoin at a price no greater then $300 (his selling price) and was hoping that people would try to trade ahead of him, pushing down the price and allowing him to eat up these orders at a lower price.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: fewcoins on October 14, 2014, 12:59:19 PM
Cool story bro... You have joined the approx. 999,999 guesses that are out there & are similar to 900K of them! Why doesn't someone try to contact bitstamp & find out exactly what happened?! Im sure you'll be surprised!!!


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: Unbelive on October 14, 2014, 02:19:15 PM
Step 1: Put 30,000 sell order in attempt to make the public believe you are trying to "push down" the price. This gives the average Joe the impression that the whale is trying to manipulate the price. (i.e. push it down)

Step 2: Average Joe "realizes" that this person is intentionally trying to manipulate the price. Thus, average Joe believes, "I'm smarter than that...I'm not falling for it!"

Step 3: Bearwhale rebuys the majority of the coins he tried to "sell" via many smaller purchases across dozens of Bitstamp accounts.

Step 4: Average Joe sees how fast the coins are eaten and thinks, "Look at that volume! People are buying the entire order! Look at the demand! We're headed up."

After all the coins are eaten up...the demand doesn't subside because the Average Joe is still thinking, "We're going up because of how quickly that wall was eaten...yada yada yada."

We go up 33% in a week as a result. Bearwhale lost a little bit to people that bought some of his coins...and commissions, but overall...he's up, a lot.

Bearwhale anticipated this. Bearwhale is a smart guy.

What do I think? I think Bearwhale is probably awesome at chess.



I doubt he would be good at chess. And with 30k coins i would do other things then self buy them for fun.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: Wandererfromthenorth on October 14, 2014, 02:25:49 PM
I don't think the BearWhale ate his own wall, here's why:


1. He could have done it at Huobi for free (and would have got more attention) instead of Stamp (with the higer fees and fucked up fee structure)

2. His coins were sitting in his wallet untouched since April 2013. Are you telling me that this guy had 9M dollars at bitstamp and then after more than a year he just moved 30k untouched bitcoins to bitstamp for the stunt paying a lot of fees for nothing?

https://twitter.com/dan_pantera/status/519294855999406081


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: nomoreheroes7 on October 14, 2014, 02:31:47 PM
Guys...it was me.

I am the bearwhale.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: MF Doom on October 14, 2014, 02:38:34 PM
Doesn't sound impossible, actually sounds quite possible.  He probably got in at 500 or more and wanted to earn some money back!


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: piramida on October 14, 2014, 02:56:53 PM
Bearwhale anticipated this. Bearwhale is a smart guy.


The wall was up for 8 hrs. 8 hour volume at stamp, on a slow day, is around 10k coins. See where I'm getting at? I know I have a portion of that wall, and many people do, and I assume the volume was much higher than usual even without possible bearwhale buying. The last part of the wall - about 15k coins - went very quick, that could be him, maybe, possibly. But making much money on that? I don't see it. Just waiting would've been a much better strategy )


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: adaseb on October 14, 2014, 03:38:28 PM
That guy with the 30,000 BTC sell order was an early adopter.

If you look at the wall thread, somebody found his wallet and he has been accumulating coins from 2012-2013. He sold some every few months to take profit and I guess he got out at $300.



Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: MrBig on October 14, 2014, 03:41:34 PM
Interesting story, but without proof it's simply conjecture.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: Asrael999 on October 14, 2014, 03:42:13 PM
That guy with the 30,000 BTC sell order was an early adopter.

If you look at the wall thread, somebody found his wallet and he has been accumulating coins from 2012-2013. He sold some every few months to take profit and I guess he got out at $300.



or Butterflylabs  who took pre orders on asic miners all the way through 2012 and 2013. Maybe after the feds came down on them like a ton of bricks after multiple complaints from bitcoiners due to their general shitness they decided to say f*ck you bitcoinland and decided to dump all their remaining coins on the market in a now backfired revenge attack.

Unlikely - but who knows anything can happen.



Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: spazzdla on October 14, 2014, 05:49:04 PM
Interesting story, but without proof it's simply conjecture.

This is the speculation section.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: abs350 on October 14, 2014, 06:04:53 PM
Occam's razor:

The simplest explanation is most probable

Ergo, your explanation is most likely bullshit


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: NamelessOne on October 14, 2014, 06:16:34 PM
I believe this to be exactly what happened.  ;D


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: okthen on October 14, 2014, 06:17:34 PM
If he's a whale, he should know it's more profitable (and less risky) to wait.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: maker88 on October 14, 2014, 06:59:17 PM
Occam's razor:

The simplest explanation is most probable

Ergo, your explanation is most likely bullshit

Hey falling did you miss where he said shut the fuck up? He didn't say fewcoins, he said falling. As in shut the fuck up across all of your shill accounts.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: gog1 on October 14, 2014, 07:55:58 PM
Whatever the real story behind the order, it is the past and history.  How high can we go before it comes down again is the question.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: ElectricMucus on October 14, 2014, 07:59:35 PM
Whatever the real story behind the order, it is the past and history.  How high can we go before it comes down again is the question.

Not if the Bearwhale was really Bitstamp selling fake coins, then it has just begun.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: inca on October 14, 2014, 08:04:51 PM
Whatever the real story behind the order, it is the past and history.  How high can we go before it comes down again is the question.

Not if the Bearwhale was really Bitstamp selling fake coins, then it has just begun.

Jesus. We get it you are underwater with your shorts. But please.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: ElectricMucus on October 14, 2014, 08:13:55 PM
Lol if you think I'm using leveraged trading. ( I could, oh well anybody wanna see if btce outlives bitstamp?)

As far as implications for the price go, we are going up yeah hasn't much to do with bitstamps possible fraud though.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: ucai6ohz on October 14, 2014, 08:25:21 PM
Not if the Bearwhale was really Bitstamp selling fake coins, then it has just begun.

Not fake coins but I'm afraid Gox coins. 


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: ElectricMucus on October 14, 2014, 08:28:01 PM
Not if the Bearwhale was really Bitstamp selling fake coins, then it has just begun.

Not fake coins but I'm afraid Gox coins. 

I'm not sure what's worse.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: piramida on October 14, 2014, 08:33:12 PM
Not if the Bearwhale was really Bitstamp selling fake coins, then it has just begun.

Not fake coins but I'm afraid Gox coins. 

I'm not sure what's worse.

Fake Gox coins!


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: adaseb on October 14, 2014, 08:59:29 PM
Exactly, you shouldn't look too much into this.

Trade what you see.

I made good profit on that orders because at first, price was glued to $300 on other exchanges, when price went too far from $300, I shorted and covered when it went back to $300.


Also when the $300 was about to be taken out, there was a 5% arbitrage against the other exchanges.

Bought at $300, and sold at $320 a few minutes later.


TRADE WHAT YOU SEE.



Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: ucai6ohz on October 14, 2014, 09:09:58 PM
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE.

Don't trade, see.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: Skoupi on October 14, 2014, 09:44:26 PM
Bearwhale created a high volume bottom but in an obvious/manipulative way. This is why the price hasn't skyrocketed but instead has been following a normal recovery growth rate since the crash.

People haven't been convinced that =~$300 is the absolute bottom.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: njcarlos on October 14, 2014, 10:05:56 PM
OP, I agree w/ a lot of your assessment. He might have bought his own and/or pulled some, but I believe there's more being orchestrated than just that 30k wall. I agree that it was not intended to be negative or bearish, but bullish. The intent was to infuse the market with confidence. That was the first stage. The next stage is more evident based on observations thereafter.

The first observation is 500-1000 walls shift and stagger on both ask and bid sides. While I understand a lot of this is automation, the coalescing at odd "price points" seems to suggest it's one entity, especially on the bid side, which leads to...

The second observation, which is that during this rally almost all of the upward movements have been large market orders, with large 1k+ walls advancing to absorb any large dumps, again indicating one entity. The market rarely moves in unison like that, at random times during the day. And when it does, it doesn't just stop abruptly. It's just not organic/natural imo.

Based on those observations I agree with some others here that this rally has been an attempt to infuse confidence and to get some "organic" and "new" money into the bitcoin ecosystem, perhaps to cauterize the mass bleeding that was occurring.

The problem is that I don't believe they can sustain the market, and when they aren't actively and aggressively buying up the order book asks, volume is very insignificant. To me, that speaks volumes because while they might be convincing some bulls that this is a recovery, it's not having a larger effect which is what I believe they were hoping for.

I guess only time will tell.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: montreal on October 15, 2014, 01:35:23 AM
They certainly took some time to think it through, assumed the risk and executed, and it worked out better than they had probably anticipated! While the crowd was celebrating slaying the bearwhale, the bearwhale was probably drinking a beer with a huge smile on their face.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on October 15, 2014, 06:35:26 AM
I also tend to think that those coins were sold to to seller. The volume that followed, just didn't paint a picture of millionaires racing to get their fiat to the exchanges to buy sub 400$ coins. That's the picture that was tried to be shown.
I think that the plan was to scare the old adopters into holding their coins.

The old adopters, who got their BTC by under 1$ by buying, mining or drug trade, are getting nervous. 10 months ago they celebrated in the realization that they are now millionaires. Only now they are beginning to see that those promised millions are mostly only empty promises. The markets are too thin to monetize their BTC. Some of them are willing to risk it, and they're holding. But others are getting nervous and want to cash out just because they don't want to risk everything and see that all the promised millions go down the drain and maybe even back to their parents basements they go.
This demonstration was to show that there still is demand for large lumps and to give the old adopters some peace of mind and to keep them from crashing the entire market.

During this April, I decided that BTC's price is a corpse that only twitches by electrocution. I still hold this opinion.


Title: Re: Bearwhale - sold coins to himself?
Post by: BillyBobZorton on October 16, 2014, 12:06:19 PM
That guy with the 30,000 BTC sell order was an early adopter.

If you look at the wall thread, somebody found his wallet and he has been accumulating coins from 2012-2013. He sold some every few months to take profit and I guess he got out at $300.



Of course he was, 99% of big holders are early adopters. Imagine you had the luck of your life and managed to get a shit ton of BTC for a small amount, it hits 1000, you get greedy, "oh it will go to 2000 easily, let's just wait and become even richier". It starts going down slowly. "Oh it will go back up". And you keep this mentality for ages, until you are PANICKING and sell the entire stack at market price (300 or whatever). This guy is far from intelligent. This guy is just another lucky guy, just like 99% of big btc holders, that guy scared at the possibility of Bitcoin crashing even harder in the next month. Guy got the fuck out, that's that. Now he's enjoying his money, but not without the bitter sensation of maybe Bitcoin starting to recover as you just sold. This was justa big hand getting shaked.