Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Realpra on May 22, 2012, 04:53:03 PM



Title: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Realpra on May 22, 2012, 04:53:03 PM
BTC:
BTC increase in value for 2012 will average out at 25-32% - until December when the block reward drops.

With some portion of 3600 BTC fewer hitting the markets each day the rate will rapidly change.

This will create a short-term bubble in early 2013 which will later crash. Overall 2013 will have BTC grow in value by around 50% or double 2012.

Before the bubble crashes it will spawn another media blitz and attention will be brought to all the VCs looking to get into BTC - it is among other things the entrance of these big boys that drive 2013 growth.

By early 2014 bitcoin will be used regularly in some real world business.

However the fact that BTC is still for relatively rich and geeky people with smart phones and or computers will limit growth.

Less certain real world predictions:
Greece will likely default before 2013 is out or even in the coming months. Obama looses to Romney since Romney is prettier, but "good-guy movements" grow in power and record numbers will register with independent parties or not vote.

This could start huge banking failures around the world once more in 2012 with untold consequences. If this does NOT happen oil price will climb higher than 130$/barrel and as time goes on the likelihood of another financial crisis increases.

With Romney in power the US becomes as fascist as ever and cold war style incursions over oil fields even with another 2nd world country such as China are likely - for instance with drones against drones or hackers.
Sometime before July/2014.

After a 10 year lull global warming picks up speed a bit between 2010 and 2014, methane plumes, dirty coal, fracking and tar sands play part in this.
Nothing too drastic though, just more crazy weather.

China/India growth slows. China growth in 2014 will be around 5%.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: miscreanity on May 22, 2012, 06:38:19 PM
Bitcoin will become more difficult to use within the EU & US (also many other western nations) due to exchange restrictions.

Bitcoin's amplifying effect will prove a boon to developing/emerging economies worldwide, allowing them to erode developed nations' dominance. More economic systems will unofficially begin to favor bitcoins as a unit base over their own domestic currencies, relying on reserves of fiat and/or gold primarily to conduct trade with developed countries that fight Bitcoin.

Underground usage of Bitcoin will be boosted by interface simplification and more reliable & robust backup/storage methods. Meshnets will allow continued, though punishable, Bitcoin usage even within restrictive environments such as the EU & US.

More alternatives like Namecoin/Dot-Bit will attach to the Bitcoin network via shared mining, providing a "lateral reserve" system of sorts. Think of Facebook Credits hitching along like NMC - proprietary aspects may be introduced in alternative chains this way while Bitcoin remains the foundation. The first of these could be a full-fledged voting system as early as 2013. Credit systems (Fractional Reserve, Hawala/referral, or new styles) may develop based on any of the blockchains.

Seasteading efforts are likely to adopt Bitcoin as a secondary currency, possibly with the launch of Blueseed (http://www.blueseed.co/) (estimated to be launched late 2013 to 2014).


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Stephen Gornick on May 22, 2012, 07:05:29 PM
There are markets for these.    Prediction markets.

Why not create some bet statements on Bets Of Bitcoin?

 e.g.,
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=206


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: proudhon on May 23, 2012, 05:27:22 AM
Next 2 years:  between $3 and $7.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: friedcat on May 23, 2012, 05:47:27 AM
In the next 2 years:

1. Supersonic airlines will not revive.
2. There will not be any serious breakthrough in fusion power.
3. Cellphone-like devices will not be widely implanted into human bodies.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: drakahn on May 23, 2012, 06:18:14 AM
$7.50 before september, then either down to $5 or up to $10 after december
$7 in one years time.
$10 before september 2013, then either $7.50 or $15 by december 2013
$11 in two years time.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: YoYa on May 23, 2012, 08:13:57 AM
Price charts will continue to oscillate to the completion of orders placed in asks and bids with a corresponding change in volumes recorded.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Tuxavant on May 23, 2012, 01:12:39 PM
I think a lot of people miscalculate the small number of people that currently participate in this economy - and under estimate the effect that the rest of the world will have on the value of Bitcoin. When the network effect and understood benefits of Bitcoin reach the ends of the earth, their value will be un-fucking believably immense.

I think the easy availability of Bitcoin in the USA coming in 2012 and the reduction of inflation will cause another media hype that will be sufficient to begin the phase of global awareness. These new Bitcoiners will cause another volatile exchange rate for the rest of us during 2013. This will also force the development of more services and applications.

By 2014, I think merchants will have enough understanding about Bitcoin and trust in its store of value to begin adoption and we will start to see an increase in acceptability.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: OgNasty on May 23, 2012, 03:56:09 PM
I think we'll stagnate around $5 for the remainder of the year, with a small bubble around July 4th.  Another bubble will occur around December 31st, this one being much bigger.  Once that deflates, it'lll settle around $10 and slowly grow from there.  Most likely hitting the $12-$15 range 2 years from today.

That or it will be worthless tomorrow.  Probably one of the two.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Qoheleth on May 23, 2012, 09:47:34 PM
As far as Bitcoin as a market: I do not think that Bitcoin will fall below $2/coin again. I also think there will be some rising price as the block reward cut approaches, followed by a slight price slip once it occurs (in typical buy on rumor/sell on news fashion).

As far as economies in general (including the Bitcoin economy): I think two years is not long enough for Bitcoin to become the primary mode of exchange in anything but a community specifically engineered to use it (e.g. the seasteading stuff miscreanity mentioned, if those projects actually get off the ground). Similarly, I can't take theories of "bitcoin outlawed" or "USD collapses" or similar seriously in the context of a 2 year timescale; unsustainable things are being done, but we are a long way from the point where they can no longer be propped up civilly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer
Frankly from what is out there right now, this looks no more credible then Steorn (which claimed to be a first-order perpetuum mobile and turned out to be a lot of hot air and magnet superstition).

I mean, good on them if they managed it, but I have serious doubts.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Qoheleth on May 24, 2012, 05:39:47 PM
Well, without the benefit of hindsight, ordinary nuclear power might sound like a massive "perpetual motion" scam as well. I mean seriously, self-heating based on some mumbo-jumbo theory about atoms and radio-activity? However, the US of A and other countries poured tons of money into research anyway. Therefore, the ongoing scepticism and lack of funding this time round seems suspicious in its own right. Hot fusion seems more of a dead-end to me: extremely large, complex reactors, which will wear out from the heat and from induced radioactivity, yet their research funding is magnitudes higher...
To me, here's what makes it like Steorn: a person is claiming to have made an invention that requires a new physics, and refuses to show unambiguously that it works (or how it works) although it would be within his power to do so. In the case of nuclear power, the new physics was developed first, and proven in unambiguous experiments, and then the engineers set to work to harness it.

But this is somewhat off the topic, I think.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Vladimir on May 24, 2012, 09:36:34 PM
31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: bitsire on May 24, 2012, 09:55:41 PM
Let me ask you this: how long did it take for Linux, a product that was
both free and miles ahead of the competition in the server space to
actually gain anything close to a decent foothold in said space ?

Let's just hope it doesn't end up like the Linux desktop which never really took off, at least not to the extent people were predicting in the mid 2000s.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Vladimir on May 24, 2012, 10:03:36 PM
Who cares about desktop?



Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: bitsire on May 24, 2012, 10:14:43 PM
Who cares about desktop?

Back in around 2005 all you heard about is how Linux would eventually gain wide acceptance in the desktop space. It didn't. In fact, quite the opposite - now the mantra is "no desktop at all, everything on the cloud".

So with the Linux desktop analogy, I'm just saying that I sure hope Bitcoin does NOT end up like the Linux desktop where years later it is still around and going strong, yet somehow has still not managed to gain widespread acceptance.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: bitsire on May 24, 2012, 10:34:56 PM

Actually, if you take into account that Android is in fact built
on top of Linux, one could make a case that it's also gained a
fairly decent foothold with everyday people :)

Good point  :)  For the record, I've been using Linux since Redhat 5.2. Your Linux reference just reminded me of the major hype around the Linux desktop back then, and how it is still around and improving but never really took off the way people thought it would (i.e. Windoze killer).

As for Bitcoin price, IMHO I see the Bitcoin value going higher, MUCH higher due to all the uncertainties regarding fiat currencies, and for the simple reason that as governments around the world become more and more totalitarian, more and more people are going to be looking for ways to hide their wealth and purchases from the tax man  ;D


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: mem on May 25, 2012, 02:55:50 AM

Actually, if you take into account that Android is in fact built
on top of Linux, one could make a case that it's also gained a
fairly decent foothold with everyday people :)

Good point  :)  For the record, I've been using Linux since Redhat 5.2. Your Linux reference just reminded me of the major hype around the Linux desktop back then, and how it is still around and improving but never really took off the way people thought it would (i.e. Windoze killer).

As for Bitcoin price, IMHO I see the Bitcoin value going higher, MUCH higher due to all the uncertainties regarding fiat currencies, and for the simple reason that as governments around the world become more and more totalitarian, more and more people are going to be looking for ways to hide their wealth and purchases from the tax man  ;D

Hey another 5.2 guy :D I got it with with PowerPC as a cover disk, feel in love, installed Enlightenment with a funky theme and never looked back. 

Never made the impact on the desktop we were hoping for, but I have made a career out of being a linux SysAdmin and I can say it is definitely a success in the server market.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Raize on May 25, 2012, 02:43:27 PM
May 2014: ~$2200/coin

I expect Bitcoin to be handling about 1% of World GDP by that time and the above price represents that. Difficulty will have also increased to match that. We'll be seeing second-generation dedicated ASICs coming out around this time. The people mining won't be consumers and there will be only maybe a hundred major players, most of which have government regulations to deal with and forced transaction fees to collect, however the expenses will be low.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: ribuck on May 25, 2012, 03:12:51 PM
I do not think that Bitcoin will fall below $2/coin again.
I raise you to "Bitcoin will not fall below $4/coin."


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Qoheleth on May 25, 2012, 04:59:25 PM
I do not think that Bitcoin will fall below $2/coin again.
I raise you to "Bitcoin will not fall below $4/coin."

I hope you're right, but a lot can happen in two years. A one-dollar price fluctuation would have been nothing strange just a few months ago, and I'm not quite convinced we've left volatility behind.

May 2014: ~$2200/coin

I expect Bitcoin to be handling about 1% of World GDP by that time and the above price represents that.
I could see this happening in ten years, depending on how things go, but I can't see it happening in two.

In fact, I'm sure enough about it that I'd propose a futures contract on the matter if I knew I could even find you two years from now ;)


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Mageant on May 25, 2012, 08:14:23 PM
BTC:
BTC will approximately double in value until December this year.

Real world predictions:
Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Goes on to win against Obama in November thus becoming the next president.

Mass arrests of thousands of criminals within the government, banks and other high-level positions occur within the next few weeks/months. This includes many people from former administrations. The truth comes out how these people have misused the financial system for their gains and have committed many false flag attacks, inlcuding 9/11, and many other atrocities. The media finally starts reporting the truth, including the real history of the Earth and the real, spiritual nature of the Universe.

New energy breakthroughs in the next few months signal the the way for cheap, clean energy for all.

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

On December 21st, 2012 the sun's radiation signature makes a quantum leap changing physical reality in the solar system. The world becomes much more harmonious, peaceful and joyful. People develop psychic powers. Earth starts to become a paradise of natural beauty.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: adamstgBit on May 25, 2012, 08:24:22 PM
BTC:
BTC will approximately double in value until December this year.

Real Fantasy world predictions:
Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Goes on to win against Obama in November thus becoming the next president.

Mass arrests of thousands of criminals within the government, banks and other high-level positions occur within the next few weeks/months. This includes many people from former administrations. The truth comes out how these people have misused the financial system for their gains and have committed many false flag attacks, inlcuding 9/11, and many other atrocities. The media finally starts reporting the truth, including the real history of the Earth and the real, spiritual nature of the Universe.

New energy breakthroughs in the next few months signal the the way for cheap, clean energy for all.

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

On December 21st, 2012 the sun's radiation signature makes a quantum leap changing physical reality in the solar system. The world becomes much more harmonious, peaceful and joyful. People develop psychic powers. Earth starts to become a paradise of natural beauty.

FTFY  ;)


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: ineededausername on May 26, 2012, 12:53:54 AM
BTC:
BTC will approximately double in value until December this year.

Real world predictions:
Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Goes on to win against Obama in November thus becoming the next president.

Mass arrests of thousands of criminals within the government, banks and other high-level positions occur within the next few weeks/months. This includes many people from former administrations. The truth comes out how these people have misused the financial system for their gains and have committed many false flag attacks, inlcuding 9/11, and many other atrocities. The media finally starts reporting the truth, including the real history of the Earth and the real, spiritual nature of the Universe.

New energy breakthroughs in the next few months signal the the way for cheap, clean energy for all.

The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.

On December 21st, 2012 the sun's radiation signature makes a quantum leap changing physical reality in the solar system. The world becomes much more harmonious, peaceful and joyful. People develop psychic powers. Earth starts to become a paradise of natural beauty.

I thought you were trolling with those real world predictions but then I read your other posts.  O.o


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: ArticMine on May 26, 2012, 01:54:07 AM
GNU / Linux has about 1% market share on the desktop by some of the most conservative estimates. http://marketshare.hitslink.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx? (http://marketshare.hitslink.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?). For Bitcoin to reach 1% market share one BTC would be worth approx !0,000 USD. How to get this figure:

World M1 money supply value approx 21,000,000,000,000 USD. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1231778551.php (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1231778551.php) Maximum number of BTC 21,000,000. Purchasing power of 1 BTC for 100% market share. 1,000,000 USD 1% of 1,000,000 USD equals 10,000 USD.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: ArticMine on May 26, 2012, 03:34:51 PM
I do agree that from a technical point of view Bitcoin does correspond to M0 or at best Monetary Base; however its use on the other hand does not. Take Bitcoinica for example. We all know that they had a hot wallet with 20% of their BTC reserves that was stolen and a cold wallet with 80% that was not. The BTC reserves correspond to M0. But what about the USD reserves? Were they held in wads of US $100 bills under Zhou Tong's mattress?  Not likely, they were more likely on deposit with one or more financial institutions forming part of M1 or even broader money. There is a fundamental asymmetry here.

This reality is true for individuals and business alike. If they hold BTC and fiat, the BTC is for the most part in a wallet forming part of M0 while the fiat on the other hand is on deposit with one or more financial institutions forming part of M1 or broader. If one considers payments we have a similar situation. Bitcoin is not just a replacement for cash (M0) but for debit cards, PayPal, credit cards etc. Again M1 or broader.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: cytokine on May 30, 2012, 04:04:15 AM
Is anyone taking care of BIP 33? Most of these predictions (mine included) seem to assume that there won't be any show-stoppers regarding scalability. But if Satoshidice is currently adding 100MB to the blockchain per month, stick on some growth and some other businesses also pulling a lot of traffic, and it could be as much as 50GB before the end of this year. We can't rely on Moore's Law to magically fix everything if some aspects of Bitcoin are expected to grow much faster than 2x per ~18 months.

This also concerns me... I hadn't heard of BIP 33 yet, thanks for the heads up.

BTW found it here (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BIP_0033).


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: nimda on June 06, 2012, 07:28:04 PM
Quote
The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.
Put your money where your mouth is ;D
Bet in my sig


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Mageant on June 06, 2012, 07:31:33 PM
Quote
The goverment starts preparing the people for official First Contact with Extraterrestials by the end of this year.
Put your money where your mouth is ;D
Bet in my sig

I already did. I created that bet.
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=25


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: doobadoo on June 06, 2012, 08:21:04 PM
Next 2 years:

Romney becomes the next president of the US.  Pursues a policy very similar to Obama...
Or Obama wins and does the same.

Additional government reports come out linking Bitcoin to illegal activities.

Government regulatory agencies push AML/KYC requirements.

Mt Gox gets hacked, again.

Another bitcoin trading service gets hacked.  All coins lost despite promises to investigate and return a portion of funds.

Satoshi returns, and wants to know what the hell Gavin did to his client.  Turns out he was doing time in a Philipeano jail for solicitation of an underage prostitute.  Yet somehow served his sentence as Satoshi, keepin his real ID an ongoing mystery.

DEA raids the servers of SilkRoad after receiving an anonymous tip from a disgruntled employee who got ripped by Tony97 or whatever his handle was.  The raid does not net DPR, who relaunches the site quickly and continues to evade Interpol, and is believed to be hiding in Iceland or Sweden.  Later is elected to the European parliament as a member of the Pirate Party.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: waspoza on June 07, 2012, 08:43:53 AM
Satoshi returns, and wants to know what the hell Gavin did to his client.  Turns out he was doing time in a Philipeano jail for solicitation of an underage prostitute.  Yet somehow served his sentence as Satoshi, keepin his real ID an ongoing mystery.

Lol'd!  ;D


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Realpra on June 09, 2012, 07:49:45 AM
Is anyone taking care of BIP 33? Most of these predictions (mine included) seem to assume that there won't be any show-stoppers regarding scalability. But if Satoshidice is currently adding 100MB to the blockchain per month, stick on some growth and some other businesses also pulling a lot of traffic, and it could be as much as 50GB before the end of this year. We can't rely on Moore's Law to magically fix everything if some aspects of Bitcoin are expected to grow much faster than 2x per ~18 months.

It is my understanding that all of the BTC scalability problems can be solved with relatively uncontroversial updates:

1. 10^15 units -> Protocol can be updated so that satoshi is no longer the smallest unit. No one should disagree to this.

2. Block size -> Older spent transactions can be deleted PLUS today the chain is being spammed with fee less transactions - once we have just 1/10000 part fees most of that will be taken care of.

3. 51% attacks -> Client will likely be updated with an IP-filter at some point and then people can quickly filter out disruptive players, maybe even propagating their block-list through the network.


I think my BTC value prediction for 2012 is already failing, the value is rising TOO rapidly! Of course it might be a bubble or slow down again...
(Glad I bought a bunch at 5.06)

Anyways I'm long so it's fine.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: IIOII on June 09, 2012, 04:36:02 PM
I think my BTC value prediction for 2012 is already failing, the value is rising TOO rapidly! Of course it might be a bubble or slow down again...
(Glad I bought a bunch at 5.06)

Anyways I'm long so it's fine.

I think it's very difficult to predict an exact price target for Bitcoin because of the mostly nonlinear nature of price movements in general and the high volatility of Bitcoin in particular. I suppose we are about to enter another bubble phase right now.

Given the uncertain economic situation globally (a catalyst for Bitcoin) with its possible intense effects on monetary policy, prediction of Bitcoin pricing should better be expressed in relation to a relatively supply-inelastic commodity. Using gold as such a commodity I would predict a BTC price of 5-10% POG by mid-2014.

Unless a fundamental design flaw is discovered, I expect that upcoming problems (whether technical or political) will be overcome due to the high motivation of the existing bitcoiners to preserve their investment.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: TraderTimm on June 17, 2012, 03:02:09 AM
I think bitcoin will have its 'Napster' moment the way mp3 sharing did with the RIAA.

This means that the government/banks will have a complete and utter freak out once they realize bitcoin is routing around all their carefully placed restrictions and fees. The curious prodding of three letter agencies aside, the real shoe-drop moment will be when sovereign institutions have outright bans on transfer of money toward bitcoin interests, perhaps with stiff legal penalties.

I'd rather not have this occur, but once anyone of reasonable power fully understands what is going on, the only way to stop the bleeding is to contain the fiat currency from being converted. Hopefully, it will be way too late to really stop anything, as I'd like to see the bitcoin economy go toward full bitcoin-to-bitcoin transactions, and less currency exchange on the periphery.

I think the collapse of the Eurodollar will spur more volume in foreign currencies, and increasingly harsh conditions in the US economy will spur a search for stores of value independent of the dollar.

On a personal note, I've become more involved in iPhone and Android development, so hopefully once I get some cycles to burn, I can devote my time toward furthering bitcoin in the mobile space.

As for price, I expect wide variations with upward trending being the norm. So, a few 2% - 3% spikes as new interest comes in, followed with higher plateaus. I'd also prefer it not to swing up too rapidly, letting the whole ecosystem grow with a nice price 'floor' underneath it.

By next year I expect it to be close to 9 - 10 on a dollar pricing basis, unless Bernanke prints a *lot* more in the form of debt, then the dollar's increasing erosion will multiply that figure considerably.




Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: proudhon on June 17, 2012, 03:12:47 AM
I think bitcoin will have its 'Napster' moment the way mp3 sharing did with the RIAA.

This means that the government/banks will have a complete and utter freak out once they realize bitcoin is routing around all their carefully placed restrictions and fees. The curious prodding of three letter agencies aside, the real shoe-drop moment will be when sovereign institutions have outright bans on transfer of money toward bitcoin interests, perhaps with stiff legal penalties.

I'd rather not have this occur, but once anyone of reasonable power fully understands what is going on, the only way to stop the bleeding is to contain the fiat currency from being converted. Hopefully, it will be way too late to really stop anything, as I'd like to see the bitcoin economy go toward full bitcoin-to-bitcoin transactions, and less currency exchange on the periphery.

I think that if and when bitcoin reaches the point where the agents of governments really devote time to specifically target it, it will be too late and its adoption in System D will have irreversibly entrenched it economic life.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: phantitox on June 17, 2012, 03:44:10 AM
come on....

this is what will happen

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DTkvrpXE1-s/SmhQHyVZ0EI/AAAAAAAAACo/O6gEJezOzXs/s400/2012+We+Were+Warned.jpg



 ;D


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: sylkyx on June 17, 2012, 11:26:50 AM
At the rate it has been rising over the last month, its up over $1 on what it was a month a go. I see it hitting $8 or more by December. Then it will likely rise to around $10 before stabilizing there for the following few years.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Kupsi on June 17, 2012, 01:00:00 PM
1st July 2013: $15 - $25
1st July 2014: $75 - $100


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Raize on May 20, 2014, 10:00:11 PM
May 2014: ~$2200/coin

As we come up on May 25th, I wanted to address my prediction from two years ago. I was off on the $2,000+ valuation, though probably a bit closer in sentiment to what actually has happened over the last two years price-wise since most of these guys only saw increases of tens of dollars or less, which was easy to do since it was only ~$5/coin.

What I really wanted to draw attention to was the the rest of my comment, specifically the part in bold below...

I expect Bitcoin to be handling about 1% of World GDP by that time and the above price represents that. Difficulty will have also increased to match that. We'll be seeing second-generation dedicated ASICs coming out around this time. The people mining won't be consumers and there will be only maybe a hundred major players, most of which have government regulations to deal with and forced transaction fees to collect, however the expenses will be low.

I'm not sure if there's only maybe 100 major miners out there or less, there's definitely thousands of small operations (which I'm glad to see). Also not sure on the miners necessarily having "forced transaction fees" though we did have minimums in many clients. Government regulations are definitely a thing right now. I think the Antminer S2 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515448.2740) qualifies as second gen ASIC, though I suppose that's arguable, most people might go solely by die-type.

Also note Vladamir's prediction here...

31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: yayayo on May 20, 2014, 10:29:07 PM
It's interesting reading through these predictions. Although the predictions were only for the next two years, most of them are very far from what really happend.

While they were optimistic regarding the bitcoin price, they were - as a group - not optimistic enough... so what do we learn from this? ;D

ya.ya.yo!


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: nimda on May 20, 2014, 10:31:47 PM
As we come up on May 25th, I wanted to address my prediction from two years ago.

Nice ;)

I've always been impressed by this post from adam:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687.msg1026305#msg1026305

Quote
(July 12, 2012)

this is the game plan for the next 364 days

http://i.imgur.com/OULhTNr.png

 100$ a coin   :D

Nobody took it seriously, but reality was pretty close to that. Back in those days, $100 was like the moon. $1 price fluctuations were huge buy or sell signals and the talk of the wall observer thread. Granted, $1 change over $5 is a 20% increase.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: yayayo on May 20, 2014, 10:37:51 PM
As we come up on May 25th, I wanted to address my prediction from two years ago.

Nice ;)

I've always been impressed by this post from adam:

Nobody took it seriously, but reality was pretty close to that. Back in those days, $100 was like the moon. $1 price fluctuations were huge buy or sell signals and the talk of the wall observer thread. Granted, $1 change over $5 is a 20% increase.

I don't think adam took it seriously neither. Sometimes you jokingly grab reality by her balls without even knowing. ;D

ya.ya.yo!


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Raize on May 20, 2014, 10:48:47 PM
Nobody took it seriously, but reality was pretty close to that. Back in those days, $100 was like the moon. $1 price fluctuations were huge buy or sell signals and the talk of the wall observer thread. Granted, $1 change over $5 is a 20% increase.

Wow, yeah, that was a pretty crazy graph/prediction. I still think pirate@40 was behind the price increase of $7-$12 (and subsequent fall) in a relatively short time frame. I think he had someone he was either buying or selling coins for, someone that was never revealed, likely due to their involvement in SR at the time. I think pirate did not originally intend to run a Ponzi, either, but ran afoul of this other person and never got a chance to buy back at a lower price because at that point the price had quit falling and the demand had become too great.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: BitchicksHusband on May 20, 2014, 11:24:29 PM
$7.50 before september, then either down to $5 or up to $10 after december
$7 in one years time.
$10 before september 2013, then either $7.50 or $15 by december 2013
$11 in two years time.

How cute.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: BitchicksHusband on May 20, 2014, 11:26:12 PM
31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.


Give that man a prize.  Pretty good prediction for a year and a half out.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: kireinaha on May 20, 2014, 11:28:57 PM
31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.


Give that man a prize.  Pretty good prediction for a year and a half out.

If he stood by his convictions, then I'm sure he's on a private yacht in the Mediterranean now :)


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: BitchicksHusband on May 20, 2014, 11:31:10 PM
May 2014: ~$2200/coin

As we come up on May 25th, I wanted to address my prediction from two years ago. I was off on the $2,000+ valuation, though probably a bit closer in sentiment to what actually has happened over the last two years price-wise since most of these guys only saw increases of tens of dollars or less, which was easy to do since it was only ~$5/coin.

What I really wanted to draw attention to was the the rest of my comment, specifically the part in bold below...



Hey, Raize, you might not be that far off.  I think you're only going to miss it by 2-3 months.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: Raize on May 21, 2014, 05:59:40 PM
Hey, Raize, you might not be that far off.  I think you're only going to miss it by 2-3 months.

Well, I tried, anyway. My assumption was that we'd be at the point of second-gen ASICs getting more and more into the hands of "the right kind of miner", ie, someone that mines and holds instead of mines and sells. Someone that is willing to put off instant gratification for a more delayed financial standing. That tends to happen only every year and a half or so, and follows an extended price decline. I think we're close, but this could be a build-up that takes another 6 months to fully develop. It'll be important to not be the weak hands that sell early on in the first couple of upticks in price next time around.

Just keep your day jobs and accumulate and you'll be fine. It could be very rocky for a long while.


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: BitchicksHusband on May 21, 2014, 07:20:53 PM
Hey, Raize, you might not be that far off.  I think you're only going to miss it by 2-3 months.

Well, I tried, anyway. My assumption was that we'd be at the point of second-gen ASICs getting more and more into the hands of "the right kind of miner", ie, someone that mines and holds instead of mines and sells. Someone that is willing to put off instant gratification for a more delayed financial standing. That tends to happen only every year and a half or so, and follows an extended price decline. I think we're close, but this could be a build-up that takes another 6 months to fully develop. It'll be important to not be the weak hands that sell early on in the first couple of upticks in price next time around.

Just keep your day jobs and accumulate and you'll be fine. It could be very rocky for a long while.

True enough.  I have a job until the day I reach my retirement number.  (Note: I am nowhere near 65.)


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: wachtwoord on May 21, 2014, 08:08:07 PM
31st of Dec 2013, 1 BTC is above 500$.


Give that man a prize.  Pretty good prediction for a year and a half out.

If he stood by his convictions, then I'm sure he's on a private yacht in the Mediterranean now :)

The Vladimir club, reserved for those who hold at least 2100 Bitcoin (0.1% of the total supply of 21M), is named after him. Validimir's fine :)


Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: zerk89 on May 21, 2014, 11:47:44 PM
July-August 2014: $4,000-7,000 ATH
End of 2014: $2,200-3,300
March-May 2015: $20,000-30,000 ATH
July-August 2015: $12,500-15,000
by end of 2015: $100,000+ ATH
This will be the point where everyone and his dog will own some BTC, the prices will no longer be influenced by miner supply of coins, this will be the leviathan bubble of bitcoin. Driven by speculation within the next year after 2015, it will be between $100,000 to $1,000,000 a coin, and so much hashrate will be churned as a result of this.


At some point more power efficient miners (Drastic peformance improvements) Will come out, the super bubble will deflate to 3-4x times less than its value (like the 2011 bubble when GPU miners got displaced by ASICS), only to reclaim the ATH 1.5 years later and break way past it.



Title: Re: Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies
Post by: bitcoinsrus on May 21, 2014, 11:52:05 PM
July-August 2014: $4,000-7,000 ATH
End of 2014: $2,200-3,300
March-May 2015: $20,000-30,000 ATH
July-August 2015: $12,500-15,000
by end of 2015: $100,000+ ATH
This will be the point where everyone and his dog will own some BTC, the prices will no longer be influenced by miner supply of coins, this will be the leviathan bubble of bitcoin. Driven by speculation within the next year after 2015, it will be between $100,000 to $1,000,000 a coin, and so much hashrate will be churned as a result of this.




http://www.xxlmag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/photo-311.jpg