Bitcoin Forum

Well all know and love SatoshiDICE the (near) instant bet/win game.

I have developed a system that helps you bet SMARTER on SD.  I can't make any guarantees as it is gambling after all; however I was wondering if there were any demand in this.

I will be blunt about what it is:  It is a spreadsheet that anyone that wanted to take the time could sit down and make; however this is for the people who either don't want to or can't do the maths themselves.

I am considering selling this for ~5BTC, but I am not set on that price, I am more feeling the market out right now.

As I said you are still gambling so I can't guarantee anything; however if you are interested in swinging the odds a little more in YOUR favor then this might just be the ticket.

Please respond to this thread if there is interest in it.

How can you swing the odds in your favor?
If you have 10% to win a bet, and you won it 10 times in a row, the 11th time is still 10% to win.

I would like to know how you somehow manage to bend the laws of probability.

Is it Martingale system?

I'm guessing Martingale, which everyone uses already anyways...

On my phone, so Please forgive me terseness.

It is a modified Martingale system; basically it helps you find the most profitable betting pattern.  With a straight martingale it is possible to actually lose money in some cuircumstanes.

It also presents several thought points for the new SatoshiDICE user.

If you are the kind of person who builds your own spreadsheets or martingale then this system is NOT for you and you will not be happy paying for it.

If you are the person who randomly switches which address or the amount you bet then you may find some value here.

I am willing to bet you a 100 BTC that I can point out a flaw in your theory, and mathematically prove that:

• the odds of winning are actually less than 50%, or put otherwise: the expected amount to gain from this scheme is negative
• the probability that you lose ALL of your bitcoins, if you keep applying this scheme long enough, is 100%

There is only ONE way to make profit from a casino. And that's running one yourself.

I'll prove that the expected value for playing this game infinite times with an infinite amount of money is >1.

Yes, but there is no infinite amount of bitcoins.

(And besides, if you would have an infinite amount of bitcoins already, there's no point in trying to earn more with some gamble scheme)

price it at 0.01 btc and I might buy...

I want to make this clear: you are 100% correct. There is no way to 'beat' any game of chance gambling system. 

What this DOES do is help people bet smarter, but if they play long enough they will lose about 98% of their money.  But in the short run it helps bet smarter and have more fun (IMHO).

I dare to disagree on that as well. At least for the chance of winning & 'betting smarter' part, fun is subjective and I'll leave that to anyone's free choice :)

If you play long enough (regardless of what system you follow, or none at all) you will lose 100% of your money.

As for improving your odds in the short term, here is what actually happens:

• normally, each round, almost half of the players will win 100% (i.e. double their stake, they bet 1 BTC and get 2 in return) and the rest will lose their stake 100%
• with a scheme like this, almost 95% of the players will win 5% (i.e. they bet 1 BTC and get 1.05 in return) and the rest will lose their stake 100%

So there's still a chance of losing all your money (which will happen eventually if you keep playing) but this chance is reduced, at the cost of a much lower winning rate.

This kind of games should be played only for fun, don't think that you will ever get profit in the long run, don't matter if you use martingale or another betting strategy. However, if you feel lucky it would be worth to try a small amount of coins which you would afford to lose it.