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Title: A MAJOR Factor Contributing to the Price Crash... Not Yet Addressed Post by: Stratobitz on January 05, 2015, 05:53:55 AM A major factor contributing to the price crash is that the total BTC Network Hash Rate has spiked nearly 14% in just the past 3 days.
The block time adjustment will not occur for another 7.1 Days. The BTC protocol is designed so that a Block is found every 10 minutes (25 BTC). Well at the current hashrate, a block is being found on average every 8.9 Minutes. This "over minting" will not be time corrected for another 1132 blocks. So what it boils down to, is miners, and pools, who mine and dump, are on average flooding the exchanges with (my guess) 14% more BTC sells, or better said selling coins at a 14% faster rate, than if the difficulty and average block time was performing at its intended speed. So the math for the next 7 Days: (1132 Blocks x 25 BTC) x 14% = Approx 4000 BTC = Approx $1,000,000 that is surplus or "too soon" within the normal expected timeframe. Basically that figure of 4000 BTC will happen faster than "predicted". Basically the market has fallen out of equilibrium due to the fact that additional "born too soon" coins are being dumped, and while the numbers are not that outrageous, any type of sell off spikes fear, which leads to panic.... This is why the difficulty is continuing to rise and price is continuing to drop. The blockchain will reset, times corrected, price will recover. Strato Title: Re: A MAJOR Factor Contributing to the Price Crash... Not Yet Addressed Post by: Biodom on January 05, 2015, 09:31:33 PM This theory sounds a bit premature considering the stamp conundrum, which explains the crash quite well (somebody dumped the stash!)
Title: Re: A MAJOR Factor Contributing to the Price Crash... Not Yet Addressed Post by: keystroke on January 05, 2015, 09:47:09 PM During the bubble in 2013 we saw an increase of 30.70% in network difficulty on Nov 5.
This is a nice increase in speed of the network though. The halving has moved up a day to July 30, 2016. Title: Re: A MAJOR Factor Contributing to the Price Crash... Not Yet Addressed Post by: NotLambchop on January 05, 2015, 10:27:38 PM A major factor contributing to the price crash is that the total BTC Network Hash Rate has spiked nearly 14% in just the past 3 days. ... You realize that Bitcoin inflation rate has been ~12%, not 10%, in 2014, right? And though the hashrate spiked over the last few days, it has declined over 2 out of 3 previous difficulty adjustments. The price has declined during that time also. Title: Re: A MAJOR Factor Contributing to the Price Crash... Not Yet Addressed Post by: RyNinDaCleM on January 05, 2015, 10:56:01 PM A major factor contributing to the price crash is that the total BTC Network Hash Rate has spiked nearly 14% in just the past 3 days. ... You realize that Bitcoin inflation rate has been ~12%, not 10%, in 2014, right? And though the hashrate spiked over the last few days, it has declined over 2 out of 3 previous difficulty adjustments. The price has declined during that time also. Yep, it could be people that shut down their equipment are now bringing them back on line with a lower difficulty than it was when removed and maybe they think the bottom is near. |