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Economy => Trading Discussion => Topic started by: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 02:05:04 AM



Title: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 02:05:04 AM
After just having read this  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91655.msg1009482#msg1009482) I propose a couple of 'bond' type securities to allow people to express their opinion one way or the other.

Start two securities (I can't see any other public way to do this, since betsofbitcoin doesn't seem to have gotten much traction). One will be a Pirate pass-through, the other will be a pass through to a more low risk investment. I know something similar has been attempted before, but perhaps it's time to try again.

Pro Pirate Bond: Coins invested in the Pro Pirate Bond are invested with Pirate, at whatever the current rate is. Any interest obtained will be moved to an escrow service.

Pirate Default Bond: Coins invested in the Pirate Default Bond do not increase in value.

Investment coins from the Pirate Default Bond and interest payments for the Pro Pirate Bond obtained will remain in the GLBSE accounts or be moved to an escrow service if trust in GLBSE is not sufficiently high.

In both cases, one coupon will be paid on the expiry of the bond. The bond will expire in one year, or when Pirate defaults, or when Pirate ends his business without defaulting.

If Pirate defaults: the 50% of the BS&T interest payments will go to each bond. 50% of the BS&T interest payments or the average interest rate at the PPT, whichever is lower, will go to the Pirate default bond. The remaining amount will go to the pro Pirate bond.

If Pirate does not default within one year: interest payments pay the Pro Pirate coupon, and the Pirate Default bond simply receives their initial investment back.

If you're pro Pirate, then you'll either have a interest plus your principal, or just half the interest and no principal.
If you assume Pirate will default within a year, you'll either have your principal back and no interest, or your principal back and and half the interest.

Example: 100 coins of the Pirate default bond are bought and 110 coins of the pro Pirate bond, and the average interest paid is 6%:

If Pirate does not default, interest accumulated = 110*0.06 *52 = 343.2, since it's not being re invested.
Pirate default bond pays 100 coins to its investors.
Pro Pirate bond pays 110 + 343.2 = 453.2 coins to its investors

If Pirate defaults in 6 months, interest accumulated = 110*0.06 *26 = 171.6.
Pirate default bond pays 100  coins + half the Pro Pirate bond interest =  85.8 coins (since this is less than 100*0.06 *26).
Pro Pirate bond pays the remaining 85.8 coins to it's investors.

In this way there's risk and reward on both sides. But is it fair?

Opinions please people?




Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Bitcoin Oz on July 05, 2012, 02:08:24 AM
I was thinking this is the way to do it. Make someone from each side donate the 16btc first :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 02:23:57 AM
Meh. Chances are the current flamewar kills BS&T, and I get nothing, or half of a week's interest or something. Just because I name long time-frames doesn't mean I'm astonished if he runs tomorrow. These are just for tail risks or Pirateat40 personally changing the schedule to get back at me or something.



How about I just make a bond that pays a little above BS&T interest but does not pass-through and has a little withdrawal delay? When he defaults, I just do the same as him: take all deposited funds and walk off. The difference is that I'm honest about it.

I will have to follow the Ponzi rules, so I am allowed to do forced withdrawals and apply limits just like him. That way, I can time myself against his expected default schedule without going bankrupt too fast. If I can't afford it anymore, I'll have to force withdraw everyone.

Oh, did I just explain why he does that again? My bad.

Again, I can't do it on a super-large scale because Pirateat is watching and may take on extreme measures to take me out and then obtain the funds from this.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 02:31:30 AM
Sorry for double-post, but this is actually a new one:

I just noticed the odds between the bonds you proposed will be absurd. The 50% interest loss is enormous. The people believing BS&T will yield 7% for a year would get a factor 33 out of their money or something, remember? With half of that accumulating, it's only 6 or so.

I would have to do 27:1.

It doesn't work. It just all goes haywire on these time-scales. That's just the thing, nothing ever works if you assume an exponential money-making machine.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 02:32:41 AM
Meh. Chances are the current flamewar kills BS&T, and I get nothing, or half of a week's interest or something.


No, you get your principal plus 50% of whatever interest is paid. You only risk what interest you could have gotten for the life of the bond.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 02:34:32 AM
Sorry for double-post, but this is actually a new one:

I just noticed the odds between the bonds you proposed will be absurd. The 50% interest loss is enormous. The people believing BS&T will yield 7% for a year would get a factor 33 out of their money or something, remember? With half of that accumulating, it's only 6 or so.

I would have to do 27:1.

It doesn't work. It just all goes haywire on these time-scales. That's just the thing, nothing ever works if you assume an exponential money-making machine.

The risk is worse on the Pro Pirate side. On the anti Pirate side, much less. Is this what you meant?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 02:38:41 AM
The risk is worse on the Pro Pirate side. On the anti Pirate side, much less. Is this what you meant?

For a sane player to take the bet against me, the anti-pirate bond must be 27 times larger than the pro-pirate bond. This is what I meant.

Give it up. You just can't build a logic instrument on bullshit assumptions. Anything involving BS&T and a time-frame of one year or above inserts the fact that believers can multiply their money with a factor of roughly 33 instead of playing. Of course we can't beat that!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 03:43:16 AM
The risk is worse on the Pro Pirate side. On the anti Pirate side, much less. Is this what you meant?

For a sane player to take the bet against me, the anti-pirate bond must be 27 times larger than the pro-pirate bond. This is what I meant.

Give it up. You just can't build a logic instrument on bullshit assumptions. Anything involving BS&T and a time-frame of one year or above inserts the fact that believers can multiply their money with a factor of roughly 33 instead of playing. Of course we can't beat that!

Math fail.

There's no 33x anything since there's no reinvestment. I've updated the post with an example.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 03:47:26 AM
The risk is worse on the Pro Pirate side. On the anti Pirate side, much less. Is this what you meant?

For a sane player to take the bet against me, the anti-pirate bond must be 27 times larger than the pro-pirate bond. This is what I meant.

Give it up. You just can't build a logic instrument on bullshit assumptions. Anything involving BS&T and a time-frame of one year or above inserts the fact that believers can multiply their money with a factor of roughly 33 instead of playing. Of course we can't beat that!

But I can.  Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 04:49:00 AM
Well, I'm sad. I'm not in either pro or anti camp.

If Pirate is running a Ponzi scheme, I want those taking the time to speak out against him to gain something at the cost of pro Pirate camp. On the other hand, if speaking out against Pirate was completely risk free to the anti camp, then you get trolls who just want to have fun (not looking at you Vandroiy, you seem to be taking this seriously).

So I thought I'd put the two camps toe to toe for a little bond action. The risk is minimal to the anti camp - only losing access to coins for up to a year, with a big gain if they're right. If the pro camp is right, it's just a pass through with no access to interest for a year, if they're wrong these losses will be the least of their worries.

Oh well.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 12:23:12 PM
But I can.  Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

Hmmmmmm. What are you plotting, I wonder?

You might just be about to run and wager with that option; chances are I'll be too careful since you have a lot more control and inside knowledge. But betting directly with you makes all this obvious.

What time-frame and odds are the best you can do? Edit: oh, and do you guarantee some rate of returns during that time, so you can't just stall for ages?

Edit: hahaha, I think he just read my chatter on IRC and noted he's in a pinch. Expect a pointlessly low max time frame or some other hook to get out. Watch a failed attempt to show how legit he is live, in this thread, it'll be fun.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Jouke on July 05, 2012, 12:58:00 PM

But I can.  Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433 ?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: flower1024 on July 05, 2012, 01:07:42 PM
The risk is worse on the Pro Pirate side. On the anti Pirate side, much less. Is this what you meant?

For a sane player to take the bet against me, the anti-pirate bond must be 27 times larger than the pro-pirate bond. This is what I meant.

Give it up. You just can't build a logic instrument on bullshit assumptions. Anything involving BS&T and a time-frame of one year or above inserts the fact that believers can multiply their money with a factor of roughly 33 instead of playing. Of course we can't beat that!

But I can.  Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

If the bet will pay more than pirates bank I will put in too. I think it is silly for me to lose money cuz of trollz. These trolls should set something up where they pay out 7% until pirate defaults then they keep the money. If they default first well, then lulz...

+1


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 01:08:44 PM
Jouke, I'd rather choose myself, just for tail risk that he owns the site. But yea, we're already betting there a little.

But that's beside the point. I'm waiting for info on the three points, Pirateat40. What odds? Can you do times well into next year? Can you give some limit on extreme stalling? The latter only determines how much I can bet -- a fair profit or going mad. :)

If the bet will pay more than pirates bank

lol, are you suggesting >33:1 odds for a one-year bet? Don't push it, he'd have to guarantee his rate for the whole time for that to work, which he hasn't yet.

Generally, it should be clear that some odds are just perverse. That's not helping anyone's credibility.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raize on July 05, 2012, 01:49:04 PM
I thought about doing something like this in case BFL was a scam. The problem is that you can't find enough "pro" people that want to make less than their investment could make in a potential scam. That's why the BFL Bets of Bitcoin is going no where (http://betsofbitco.in/search?q=butterfly).

I want to bet 100 Bitcoin that BFL won't deliver within 20% of their specs within the month of October on any single BC device, but it would only work if BFL itself took the opposing end, because everyone else wants to spend their money buying actual BFL devices.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 02:11:11 PM
you would run out of money in less than 15 weeks... learn to mathz.

Why do you figure I'm so amused at this? I'm putting to display that any bet on this becomes ridiculous. People just have to wonder why. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 02:17:48 PM
But I can.  Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

Hmmmmmm. What are you plotting, I wonder?

You might just be about to run and wager with that option; chances are I'll be too careful since you have a lot more control and inside knowledge. But betting directly with you makes all this obvious.

What time-frame and odds are the best you can do? Edit: oh, and do you guarantee some rate of returns during that time, so you can't just stall for ages?

Edit: hahaha, I think he just read my chatter on IRC and noted he's in a pinch. Expect a pointlessly low max time frame or some other hook to get out. Watch a failed attempt to show how legit he is live, in this thread, it'll be fun.

You're the one that doubts me.  Since you're so sure you're right why do you need odds?  1:1 is good with me, you set up the bet.

Pirate will default by X.

Remember, we are taking about default here.  Not closing down BS&T with everyone happy.

Put your money were you're mouth is and I'll match every coin.

EDIT: And no, I know you think you're the grand master chief around these parts but I didn't catch your "chatter" on IRC.  Where was it?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mcorlett on July 05, 2012, 02:23:28 PM
Put your month were you're mouth is
I had to.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 02:25:31 PM
You're the one that doubts me.  Since you're so sure you're right why do you need odds?  1:1 is good with me, you set up the bet.

Pirate will default by X.

Remember, we are taking about default here.  Not closing down BS&T with everyone happy.

Put your month were you're mouth is and I'll match every coin.

EDIT: And no, I know you think you're the grand master chief around these parts but I didn't catch your "chatter" on IRC.  Where was it?

The chatter doesn't matter, let's do it concisely here. Please, what's a valid number for X? Are you saying until next year or some few weeks like otherwise proposed? It's pretty hard to tell whether you have some whale who keeps you alive for a tad longer. And worse, you probably know that better than I, so I need some slack on the timing.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 02:28:04 PM
Put your month were you're mouth is
I had to.

lol,

*grabs more coffee*


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 02:29:55 PM
You're the one that doubts me.  Since you're so sure you're right why do you need odds?  1:1 is good with me, you set up the bet.

Pirate will default by X.

Remember, we are taking about default here.  Not closing down BS&T with everyone happy.

Put your month were you're mouth is and I'll match every coin.

EDIT: And no, I know you think you're the grand master chief around these parts but I didn't catch your "chatter" on IRC.  Where was it?

The chatter doesn't matter, let's do it concisely here. Please, what's a valid number for X? Are you saying until next year or some few weeks like otherwise proposed? It's pretty hard to tell whether you have some whale who keeps you alive for a tad longer. And worse, you probably know that better than I, so I need some slack on the timing.

Default is out of the question, so naturally I don't care when X is.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 02:37:34 PM
Default is out of the question, so naturally I don't care when X is.

So, just to make this clear, I can do a bet on default for a time like End-2013 or worse, and that's OK. 1:1 bet on you defaulting?

This sounds doable. I don't see how it makes any sense for you, but that's not my problem, is it? I'll just have to ask around for some third parties.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 05, 2012, 02:38:12 PM
I was going to suggest around 18 months or so.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 02:40:25 PM
Default is out of the question, so naturally I don't care when X is.

So, just to make this clear, I can do a bet on default for a time like End-2013 or worse, and that's OK. 1:1 bet on you defaulting?

This sounds doable. I don't see how it makes any sense for you, but that's not my problem, is it? I'll just have to ask around for some third parties.

Right but you must add that if BS&T makes it public (at anytime prior to the deadline) that it's closed and all coins were returned and confirmed I win the bet.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 02:45:53 PM
Wait, I get it. When you default, the users come raging at me screaming I have their money. ;D

But given how they act, I'm not so certain I would have to react to that. The third party just has to consider this feasible, since by now, it's pretty damn clear what everyone's stances are. If the alternative is you running away with it or me doing a charity attack, the bet is still the right choice.

I was going to suggest around 18 months or so.

Yea, my thinking too.

Pirateat40: Yes, that's OK. If you return that kind of interest, even prematurely, I can lose a 1:1 bet. I guess it's the point at hand here; I can't bet too much that your profit from that deals with things.

One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 05, 2012, 02:48:40 PM
I don't want to force anyone to become the coin holder, but if it comes down to a bet I could suggest the following names:

nanotube
DeathAndTaxes
theymos
Keefe

unless someone else wants to volunteer.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 03:01:46 PM
One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

Normally sure, but I'm not going to be sitting around watching the bet while you add mining additions day by day.  You sound sure enough now, why wait?  I'm sure you could collect a bunch from all the other doubters.  This is your chance, STICK IT TO THE MAN!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 03:13:52 PM
...

Oh wow. It'll take a bit until I answer though, it's not like I have tons of BTC on my mobile or anything. Gotta talk with one of the traders.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 05, 2012, 03:14:55 PM
One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

Normally sure, but I'm not going to be sitting around watching the bet while you add mining additions day by day.  You sound sure enough now, why wait?  I'm sure you could collect a bunch from all the other doubters.  This is your chance, STICK IT TO THE MAN!

...and get bankrupt on the process... lol


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 04:25:31 PM
One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

Normally sure, but I'm not going to be sitting around watching the bet while you add mining additions day by day.  You sound sure enough now, why wait?  I'm sure you could collect a bunch from all the other doubters.  This is your chance, STICK IT TO THE MAN!

...and get bankrupt on the process... lol

Well, not for the doubters. They stand to lose at most a year's (or 18 months' or whatever) access to the coin they invest. The Pro pirate bond buyers would lose their capital and up to half their interest if Pirate defaults. Neither side goes bankrupt, at least no more bankrupt than they already would be.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 04:29:46 PM
I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 04:32:33 PM
I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

There's an official bet thread?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 04:38:56 PM
I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

There's an official bet thread?

No, but Ill make one when we get the details sorted out.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 05, 2012, 04:43:02 PM
I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

There's an official bet thread?

No, but Ill make one when we get the details sorted out.

I was just about to go and set up these bonds on GLBSE - I think I'll wait to see if someone's come up with an easier way to do this.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nimda on July 05, 2012, 06:13:24 PM
When do you (you being any anti-pirate person) think it's collapsing? Can I make more by betting against you than if I just gave my coins to Pirate?
How about I give 1BTC to escrow, and you give 1BTC to escrow, and the escrow pays out 0.071 per week to me, then if pirate defaults, you get the whole 1BTC from me, plus whatever's left of your capital?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 06:29:24 PM
nimda: yea, if you find an escrow that does that, it would be safer contract-wise.

Otherwise, here's the situation:

If we get an escrow that we trust and actually pays us in the default case, even though it is known that the funds for the bet were stolen, we join the bet. I want to add that I do not believe this is unethical, or a better solution reasonable: nobody would trust any accounting after the default, so the funds are pretty lost anyway. Also, escrow betting is not zero risk no matter how certain we are.

To not trigger the default by accident, we're sticking with 5000 BTC. If we lose -- well, then the 5k BTC charity ::) will hopefully excuse the flamewar.


@Pirateat40: lol you're such a dude. Aah. I'll remember you whatever happens now. ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 07:58:44 PM

@Pirateat40: lol you're such a dude. Aah. I'll remember you whatever happens now. ;D

I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you. 

Ready when you are.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Serge on July 05, 2012, 08:14:41 PM
loser should also eat his hat or something ))


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 08:55:39 PM
I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.  

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 09:01:23 PM
I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.  

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

Perfect and I don't think you could have picked a better escrow.  When your funds hit the escrow let me know.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phantitox on July 05, 2012, 10:58:05 PM
I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

I'm a huge fan of the charities dedicated to providing clean water around the world.  water.org and charitywater.org are both good.  That's where I direct all friends and family for my bday/etc. gifts.  It's a good balance for how insanely first world btc currently compares to the real "99%" and there's no political agenda.

Awesome, i personally make a little charity teaching computer class for 8-12 years old kids here at my city in a low-income public school and its  awesome, i take my hat off and applaud if you follow your word and that money is sent to a charity. Loved It  :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Nekrobios on July 05, 2012, 11:07:00 PM
I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.  

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

Perfect and I don't think you could have picked a better escrow.  When your funds hit the escrow let me know.
I'll add 3k BTC to this, same escrow, same terms (except Vandroiy = Blitz), so I can also "put my money where my mouth is". Agree?

edit: I decided not to do it for a variety of reasons while overthinking it. Mainly, I don't wish to have a vested interest in "making" something a ponzi or making a person a criminal when I cannot have a certainty of 100%. Feels unethical. In return, since I am unwilling to put up, I will also shut up about this topic.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Jan on July 05, 2012, 11:27:18 PM
I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.  

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

Perfect and I don't think you could have picked a better escrow.  When your funds hit the escrow let me know.
I'll add 3k BTC to this, same escrow, same terms (except Vandroiy = Blitz), so I can also "put my money where my mouth is". Agree?

Time for popcorn, this is going to be interesting!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 05, 2012, 11:32:56 PM
Nanotube said he has some thoughts about the exact wording and will work on that. He just wants to be sure we don't fight in the end... I wonder why! ;D I doubt it in this case, but why not let him be safe.

I suggested we pay him 100 BTC for the escrow, so we transfer 5050 BTC each. Is that OK? I'll be back tomorrow to post the exact bet with signature and, if you like the final version, transfer the funds.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: officialsavage on July 05, 2012, 11:48:28 PM
Does this mean no more fud about bs&t?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 11:50:39 PM
Nanotube said he has some thoughts about the exact wording and will work on that. He just wants to be sure we don't fight in the end... I wonder why! ;D I doubt it in this case, but why not let him be safe.

I suggested we pay him 100 BTC for the escrow, so we transfer 5050 BTC each. Is that OK? I'll be back tomorrow to post the exact bet with signature and, if you like the final version, transfer the funds.

I'm fine with that and whoever else wants to add to the bill.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: chunglam on July 05, 2012, 11:51:56 PM
Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet? I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures. I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Nanotube said he has some thoughts about the exact wording and will work on that. He just wants to be sure we don't fight in the end... I wonder why! ;D I doubt it in this case, but why not let him be safe.

I suggested we pay him 100 BTC for the escrow, so we transfer 5050 BTC each. Is that OK? I'll be back tomorrow to post the exact bet with signature and, if you like the final version, transfer the funds.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: teek on July 05, 2012, 11:53:46 PM
this is going to get redonkulous.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 05, 2012, 11:58:20 PM
Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet? I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures. I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Nanotube said he has some thoughts about the exact wording and will work on that. He just wants to be sure we don't fight in the end... I wonder why! ;D I doubt it in this case, but why not let him be safe.

I suggested we pay him 100 BTC for the escrow, so we transfer 5050 BTC each. Is that OK? I'll be back tomorrow to post the exact bet with signature and, if you like the final version, transfer the funds.

This bet is directly with me and Vandroiy's posse.  I don't use GLBSE and won't.  I want those that entered this bet to be known.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: chunglam on July 06, 2012, 12:09:00 AM
Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet? I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures. I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Nanotube said he has some thoughts about the exact wording and will work on that. He just wants to be sure we don't fight in the end... I wonder why! ;D I doubt it in this case, but why not let him be safe.

I suggested we pay him 100 BTC for the escrow, so we transfer 5050 BTC each. Is that OK? I'll be back tomorrow to post the exact bet with signature and, if you like the final version, transfer the funds.

This bet is directly with me and Vandroiy's posse.  I don't use GLBSE and won't.  I want those that entered this bet to be known.

Yes, I know. But you can't stop him using GLBSE to collect the funds he puts into this bet.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: elux on July 06, 2012, 12:15:38 AM
I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

For picking an effective, efficient and sane charity: http://www.givewell.org/

Current top recommendation: Against Malaria Foundation (http://www.againstmalaria.com/)

Quote from: GiveWell.org
Using the 2012 projected costs per LLIN, we estimate the cost per child life saved through an AMF LLIN distribution at about $1,600 using the marginal cost ($5.15 per LLIN) and about $1,700 using the total cost ($5.54 per LLIN) This does not include other potential benefits of LLINs (non-fatal cases of malaria prevented, prevention of deaths in age groups other than under-5 year olds, prevention of other mosquito-borne diseases, etc.).



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nimda on July 06, 2012, 12:18:29 AM
ooh, 5050 BTC each! :o
A cool $66700 to the winner!

Somehow I doubt vandroiy will do it, but we'll see... (watch for lame excuses)


As for charities, I can also suggest Smile Train.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Serge on July 06, 2012, 12:22:17 AM
Vandroiy - 5k BTC
Blitz - 3k BTC
over $33k worth of pet rocks for a winning side at current rates


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 12:28:16 AM
Somehow I doubt vandroiy will do it, but we'll see... (watch for lame excuses)

If he does't have the coins, surely he can collect enough funds from everyone anti-me.  He's already committed, it's game on.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: the joint on July 06, 2012, 12:31:12 AM
God I love this forum sometimes.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: elux on July 06, 2012, 12:32:35 AM
Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet?
I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures.
I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Bets of Bitcoin: BTCST will default before the end of 2012 (http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433). (Currently 282.3 BTC in favour, 370.44 BTC against.)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: teek on July 06, 2012, 12:33:50 AM
God I love this forum sometimes.

+1


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: chunglam on July 06, 2012, 01:12:46 AM
Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet?
I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures.
I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Bets of Bitcoin: BTCST will default before the end of 2012 (http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433). (Currently 282.3 BTC in favour, 370.44 BTC against.)

This one is more interesting, because it involves pirateat40 himself and charity.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on July 06, 2012, 01:16:25 AM
Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet?
I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures.
I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Bets of Bitcoin: BTCST will default before the end of 2012 (http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433). (Currently 282.3 BTC in favour, 370.44 BTC against.)

This one is more interesting, because it involves pirateat40 himself and charity.
And the volume is higher.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nimda on July 06, 2012, 01:30:58 AM
And the escrow is more trustworthy


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 01:38:34 AM
Not using a platform like GLBSE means an advantage to Pirate. If he does run a Ponzi, he has access to (and can afford to lose) much more cash than Vandroiy can.

Using GLBSE means:
1. that anyone could enter and Vandroiy wouldn't have to stump up a large amount of coins by himself;
2. The amounts wagered on either side could be dissimilar without a significant change in risk;
3. trading of bonds and their relative prices could be a good indicator of informed public opinion (well, public opinion, anyway) .

I understand Pirate won't  use GLBSE, but a bunch of his supporters will. I still think a paired bond like proposed in the OP would be a good way to proceed, and let more people in on the wager.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Serge on July 06, 2012, 02:31:29 AM
Yup. Should be easy money for the ones who's determined pirate runs ponzi


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 03:03:24 AM
Not using a platform like GLBSE means an advantage to Pirate. If he does run a Ponzi, he has access to (and can afford to lose) much more cash than Vandroiy can.

Using GLBSE means:
1. that anyone could enter and Vandroiy wouldn't have to stump up a large amount of coins by himself;
2. The amounts wagered on either side could be dissimilar without a significant change in risk;
3. trading of bonds and their relative prices could be a good indicator of informed public opinion (well, public opinion, anyway) .

I understand Pirate won't  use GLBSE, but a bunch of his supporters will. I still think a paired bond like proposed in the OP would be a good way to proceed, and let more people in on the wager.

This is me vs the anti-me.  GLBSE doesn't allow that to happen and requires more trust than just using Nanotube.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 03:52:33 AM
Using GLBSE means:
1. that anyone could enter and Vandroiy wouldn't have to stump up a large amount of coins by himself;

Exactly why it should not be used.  Vandroiy and others have has given a value to their his opinion.  If they he no longer values the opinion that much, then it's clear their his resolve is not aligned with their his public, criminal, possibly libelous, accusations.

Whether or not BS&T is legit, Pirate will be easily able to silence dissenters by making the cost too high for any one individual to bear. This makes the wager asymmetric. I agree that there should be something that the "Pirate will default" group should risk, but not going one on one against a financial giant.

Otherwise it's like accusing Miguel Torres of a rape, but instead of court you get to go one on one with him in a cage match.




Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 03:55:39 AM
Using GLBSE means:
1. that anyone could enter and Vandroiy wouldn't have to stump up a large amount of coins by himself;

Exactly why it should not be used.  Vandroiy and others have has given a value to their his opinion.  If they he no longer values the opinion that much, then it's clear their his resolve is not aligned with their his public, criminal, possibly libelous, accusations.

Whether or not BS&T is legit, Pirate will be easily able to silence dissenters by making the cost too high for any one individual to bear. This makes the wager asymmetric. I agree that there should be something that the "Pirate will default" group should risk, but not going one on one against a financial giant.

Otherwise it's like accusing Miguel Torres of a rape, but instead of court you get to go one on one with him in a cage match.




One on One?  I want One vs Anyone but I want his name on it.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 04:10:24 AM
One on One?  I want One vs Anyone but I want his name on it.

"his"?  Are you implying that women would not be stupid enough to waste their time or assets on this dick–oh, I got it.

:)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 04:30:54 AM

Weak sauce.  I haven't seen pirate force anyone to a specific value.  He's just accepted all challenges.  The fact that the accusers are Lilliputian shouldn't matter.

As a bystander, I'm not really that interested in whether Pirate alone is willing to take this wager. As I mentioned before, it's no big loss to him if he is running a Ponzi scheme if it keeps investor confidence high, and if he is legit then it's a risk free bet to him. I took it as read that he'd want to wager something.

It's his investors I'm interested in. There seem to be as many as there are detractors. By selling bonds to either side, the price movements of the bonds would let anyone gauge the current confidence in BS&T.

A simple one to one bet between Pirate and Vandroiy might make them both feel better, but no one else can participate without it requiring a public platform one which to show the accounting. GLBSE already does that.





Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on July 06, 2012, 06:33:49 AM
Vandroiy may know the "red flags" of ponzi, but he should learn the "red flags" of poker. The guy have pocket aces in his hands, and is looking to see how much money he can get.

Anyway, that is completely insane, and I love it!  ;D
+1 to both


For maximum impact on our great vision the money should only go to a charity that accepts Bitcoin donations.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: chunglam on July 06, 2012, 06:44:50 AM
Vandroiy may know the "red flags" of ponzi, but he should learn the "red flags" of poker. The guy have pocket aces in his hands, and is looking to see how much money he can get.

He can use GLBSE to share the risk with other anti-pirate forum members


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 06, 2012, 06:59:26 AM
I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.  

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

Perfect and I don't think you could have picked a better escrow.  When your funds hit the escrow let me know.
I'll add 3k BTC to this, same escrow, same terms (except Vandroiy = Blitz), so I can also "put my money where my mouth is". Agree?

Time for popcorn, this is going to be interesting!

Bahaha, brilliant :D    Man, it's going to be a long wait until Oct 2013 for the hilarity.  That's assuming Vandroiy actually comes through obviously.   


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 09:40:58 AM
Vandroiy may know the "red flags" of ponzi, but he should learn the "red flags" of poker. The guy have pocket aces in his hands, and is looking to see how much money he can get.

Anyway, that is completely insane, and I love it!  ;D

The only "pocket ace" I'm afraid of is people discrediting me for obtaining stolen funds I can't pay back for a multitude of reasons. I don't think that is something Pirateat40 cares about though, and I'm not so certain he wants to get back at me. Just playing his game like a pro.

Good thing if you love the show.

To these joining: please be aware that odds of this working get worse if too many people join. Due to the charity operation, risk is not super-high, but I just want to say the 5k were deliberate because of some tail risks I can't rule out.

Also, I will keep the bet such that it doesn't end before the target date or a default, and add a clause against payout-rename tricks and the likes for the unlikely case he can still push in BTC from wherever and is aiming for the sky of Bitcoin Ponzis. And a comment on the charity thing on Pirateat40's side -- really, what a move. ;D I basically can't feel bad about it even if he had some way to trick me.

I will have access to a trading PC later today, and hope we can seal this then.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 09:56:56 AM
Also, I will keep the bet such that it doesn't end before the target date or a default, and add a clause against payout-rename tricks and the likes for the unlikely case he can still push in BTC from wherever and is aiming for the sky of Bitcoin Ponzis.

Vandroiy, you've gone from a wager where the risks were known and (IMO) fairly equitable, to a wager where the risk is all on your side. Pirate can't lose: either he's stumping up 5000 btc to buoy investor confidence, or he's got nothing to fear because he's legit. Either way, your risk is higher since his is nil.

Also, if you're correct and BS&T is a Ponzi, simply having a bet against Pirate only rather than his followers will do more harm than good. The 5000 btc bet will make people far more confident of BS&T, and people will lose interest in it the bet very quickly. In fact, after the initial publicity, I predict that people will forget unless reminded, or Pirate defaults, or a year is up without him defaulting.

I'd ask you to think twice but you're clearly going to go ahead. Folly! I say.




Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: fatigue on July 06, 2012, 09:58:55 AM
Also, I will keep the bet such that it doesn't end before the target date or a default, and add a clause against payout-rename tricks and the likes for the unlikely case he can still push in BTC from wherever and is aiming for the sky of Bitcoin Ponzis.

Vandroiy, you've gone from a wager where the risks were known and (IMO) fairly equitable, to a wager where the risk is all on your side. Pirate can't lose: either he's stumping up 5000 btc to buoy investor confidence, or he's got nothing to fear because he's legit. Either way, your risk is higher since his is nil.

Also, if you're correct and BS&T is a Ponzi, simply having a bet against Pirate only rather than his followers will do more harm than good. The 5000 btc bet will make people far more confident of BS&T, and people will lose interest in it very quickly. In fact, after the initial publicity, I predict that people will forget unless reminded, or Pirate defaults, or a year is up without him defaulting.

I'd ask you to think twice but you're clearly going to go ahead. Folly! I say.




Shh! i like it when people throw away their money without weighing their situation or seeing it from anything but their tunnel-vision view!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitdragon on July 06, 2012, 10:06:32 AM

Also, I will keep the bet such that it doesn't end before the target date or a default, and add a clause against payout-rename tricks and the likes for the unlikely case he can still push in BTC from wherever and is aiming for the sky of Bitcoin Ponzis.

Doesn't this contradict the note below?


So, just to make this clear, I can do a bet on default for a time like End-2013 or worse, and that's OK. 1:1 bet on you defaulting?

This sounds doable. I don't see how it makes any sense for you, but that's not my problem, is it? I'll just have to ask around for some third parties.

Right but you must add that if BS&T makes it public (at anytime prior to the deadline) that it's closed and all coins were returned and confirmed I win the bet.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vladimir on July 06, 2012, 10:08:41 AM
It is not wise to make a bet on some event where outcome of that even depends (even if only to some degree) on actions of the party that takes the other side of the bet.

I suggest to back out and to not give any further incentive to prolong the alleged ponzi.





Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ribuck on July 06, 2012, 10:09:27 AM
Vandroly, have you taken into account the possibility that a pre-announced large reduction in interest paid by Pirate could occur and wouldn't count as a default.

You're convinced that 3000%+ per annum must be a ponzi, but perhaps 150% per annum wouldn't be. Or even if it was, it might delay default beyond the closing date for the bet.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 10:18:48 AM
I am very pleased that Vandroiy is not going to back down:)

Did you really think we would do that, after an enormous campaign and nanotube ensuring that on error, all the funds go to charity? This is am important point: even if we miss our estimate and there's a catastrophe, my name should be redeemed at all times -- either I'm donating to charity, or there was a default and everyone must shut up. All effect on the Ponzi is locking down 5k and a little publicity he could get for that price anyway.

Why in the world would I not accept? Because you track stolen funds to me in the block chain? It's been discussed, returning them holds way too much danger of Pirateat40 screwing with bookkeeping, also it would be nuts if the community were to punish betting against a Ponzi after the fact -- the funds may be stolen, but they hedge the risk we're taking now. People should have used their brain before this is the last way out.

Either way, we can cheaply get a warranty that either we do not lose money or there is a hard time-limit on a Ponzi operation. It's perfect! All we want, pretty much no matter what happens. This ends our problem with the situation conclusively.

It's win-win-win. Even the unlikely scenarios are no catastrophe, and each one should make this place more civilized.



ribuck, Vladimir: it goes to charity! Whatever.

Edit: I can prove he can't strengthen the Ponzi with this financially or in terms of timing, and I'm long lost at psychology, so hell knows about that. Anyway, this bet should not help the Ponzi in terms of funds. Even if I lose, all that happens from his point of view is 5k being locked up. He can't run in Ponzi mode even at +100% pa or I can profit from him regardless. He'd have to go down to Madoff-style, which is insane given his current position.



Also, I will keep the bet such that it doesn't end before the target date or a default, and add a clause against payout-rename tricks and the likes for the unlikely case he can still push in BTC from wherever and is aiming for the sky of Bitcoin Ponzis.

Doesn't this contradict (...)

Yes, this is something Pirateat40 still has to agree on. If he is able to shut down and wait until the deadline, yes I am fine with the donation then. However, if he just builds some temporary shutdown, then continues with his name/company/reputation in a similar operation and defaults with that before the deadline, I still win.

I hope it's understandable that a real Ponzi pro might be able to obtain funds somewhere that can temporarily pay out people or might be able to trick large depositors into faking a temporary shutdown. Bitcoins don't go bad, there will still be the need for charity later on, I don't see a reason to hurry.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 10:20:33 AM
You're convinced that 3000%+ per annum must be a ponzi, but perhaps 150% per annum wouldn't be.
The bet isn't about what rate of interest would make you suspect a Ponzi, but whether BS&T defaults.

Or even if it was, it might delay default beyond the closing date for the bet.

If BS&T is a Ponzi, then reducing the interest rate might make it last longer. But another year? Another 18 months? It would be a lot of work for little gain. I don't think there are enough btc investors to make it worthwhile running a Ponzi for another 12 months at 150% pa, unless nobody takes their interest payments.

Hey, I know what Pirate's doing! I've changed my mind. He's not running a time travel operation in order to own bitcoin - he's a rich kid with a coke habit and borrowing money from coiners is less risky than owing the mob.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 10:48:37 AM
To make this stand out:

Pirateat40, is it okay if the donation funds get locked up until the end of the bet even if you manage a seemingly orderly shutdown, and the bet continues on whatever operations of similar type you might run until the deadline or that stem off BS&T? This is security against tricks in which BS&T effectively just renames or re-opens, and the pay-out is not really what is seems to be.

I'll try to get a final formulation of the bet asap.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 10:50:46 AM
@ Vandroiy: I'm reminded that Meni Rosenfeld actually IPO'd a better bond than my OP and much better than the wager you're considering: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77265.0

It would mean you could indeed put your money where your mouth it without risking increasing investor confidence in BS&T. Quite the reverse.

You really wont reconsider?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 10:57:02 AM
organofcorti: (oops, edited for spellfail)

As I see it, that bond was not just one, but two classes worse than the current bet. If I understood it correctly, this stems from the mistake of identifying funds within a Ponzi, paper money, with real funds -- the time-frame in which a majority of imaginary funds get inflated in the Ponzi is used as a reference, to then eat up real funds in the bond. But it would be good if we don't discuss this here, it just distracts from the bet at hand.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 11:05:39 AM
organofconti:
Hah! I see what you did there. Serves me right for having a cut and paste nick.

As I see it, that bond was not just one, but two classes worse than the current bet.
  I don't see it. Pirate has nothing to lose in your current arrangement. The risk is all yours and the bet itself will work against your stated aims.

But it would be good if we don't discuss this here, it just distracts from the bet at hand.

Not discuss it here? The thread that started by suggesting a bond based wager? Perhaps you should start an official "Bet" thread, then :)



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 11:39:20 AM
Hm, you're right I have somehow derailed the thread. I explained on PM why your bond doesn't make sense though. Should we still split the thread or something? Oh, and sorry for the nick typo. :P

I fear the bond discussion will just get convoluted. Short version: if you really want to know, sit down and try to simulate that bond with an actual Ponzi as a model. You'll see the Ponzi paying ridiculous interest on ridiculous numbers in the end, which can never be paid, while the bond burns real money rapidly.

Trying to explain the reasoning here in detail contradicts the very reason Pirateat40 is offering this bet: many people don't really try to understand things even if they are important and happen in plain sight. He is an expert on judging what people will and will not see. It's not the right game for me to play. Plus, if I'm right, it would cost me a bet with positive expectation value even if I persuade people against all odds, so why not try the bet first?

I never claimed it'll work for me with 100%. I won't starve if I lose the 5k. Bitcoin would just miss out on some later move I might use them for. But it's surprising how people are concerned for me, yesterday I was still under the impression the whole forum hated me.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 06, 2012, 11:46:36 AM
Uh-huh.    Aaaanyway, are we also to assume that by you making this bet you're going to give it a rest and stop trolling pirate going forward, along with whichever other cronies also join in?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 06, 2012, 11:53:59 AM
As I see it, that bond was not just one, but two classes worse than the current bet.
  I don't see it. Pirate has nothing to lose in your current arrangement. The risk is all yours and the bet itself will work against your stated aims.


Let the kid manage his own risk.
Or are you just like him and will troll him until he drops any risky investment he's about to do?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: officialsavage on July 06, 2012, 12:29:41 PM
Vandroiy - IMO you should suck up your pride and back out of this bet.  It's not something you can win.  Vegas weekend is coming and more people are going to find out who pirate is.  Making any bets your not 100% sure of before hand is just ludicrous.  I predict after Vegas weekend you too will find out and be pissed that you made this bet.  That is unless your a high enough roller that it will make no difference to you that you just lost 5k btc.  If you are in the states then you should be one of those who meet up with him in Vegas.  (much cheaper than throwing away 5k btc)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 12:30:19 PM
Hm, you're right I have somehow derailed the thread. I explained on PM why your bond doesn't make sense though. Should we still split the thread or something? Oh, and sorry for the nick typo. :P
Wasn't talking about my proposal, I was asking you for your opinion on Meni's which is a completely different kettle of boots. As for a thread split, you might just want to start an Official BS&T Wager thread for clarity.

Plus, if I'm right, it would cost me a bet with positive expectation value even if I persuade people against all odds, so why not try the bet first?
Because Pirate has nothing to lose. For him, it's not a bet. If he's going to default, it's an investment to encourage investor confidence.

Quote
I never claimed it'll work for me with 100%. I won't starve if I lose the 5k. Bitcoin would just miss out on some later move I might use them for. But it's surprising how people are concerned for me, yesterday I was still under the impression the whole forum hated me.

It's not that. I'm sure you have assessed the risks and are comfortable with them. I just don't think it will achieve anything other than one of you losing. It certainly won't make people stop and think before investing more with BS&T.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: DutchBrat on July 06, 2012, 12:34:56 PM
This bet is actually a win-win for both players

-Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40

-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it

Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 12:35:31 PM
As I see it, that bond was not just one, but two classes worse than the current bet.
  I don't see it. Pirate has nothing to lose in your current arrangement. The risk is all yours and the bet itself will work against your stated aims.


Let the kid manage his own risk.


Vandroiy's risk is not huge, it's just that for Pirate - regardless of the truth - there is no risk at all. It's a pointless bet. Pirate wins either way.

Or are you just like him and will troll him until he drops any risky investment he's about to do?

Psy, you're right. I should just come out and say it here: I'm actually Vandroiys mother.

*sigh*

As you can see I'm not a very good troll, Psy, but when I am I'm an Equal Opportunities troll. I promise I'll try harder next time.






Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 12:38:03 PM
This bet is actually a win-win for both players

-Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40

-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it

Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet

Good point. I think the losing penalty needs to be more severe for both players (no, not a sexual punishment, Psy, although I like the way you think).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 01:17:00 PM
To make this stand out:

Pirateat40, is it okay if the donation funds get locked up until the end of the bet even if you manage a seemingly orderly shutdown, and the bet continues on whatever operations of similar type you might run until the deadline or that stem off BS&T? This is security against tricks in which BS&T effectively just renames or re-opens, and the pay-out is not really what is seems to be.

I'll try to get a final formulation of the bet asap.

I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.

The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.

If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.

If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on July 06, 2012, 01:32:01 PM
To make this stand out:

Pirateat40, is it okay if the donation funds get locked up until the end of the bet even if you manage a seemingly orderly shutdown, and the bet continues on whatever operations of similar type you might run until the deadline or that stem off BS&T? This is security against tricks in which BS&T effectively just renames or re-opens, and the pay-out is not really what is seems to be.

I'll try to get a final formulation of the bet asap.

I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.

The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.

If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.

If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.
What Vandroiy is afraid of is you pulling shenanigans. As an example: If you set up BTCSTv.2 in a few months, with exactly the same conditions, and transfer all users' funds there, then you could claim that BTCST is shut down and you returned every coin to your lenders('s new accounts) and therefore you win.

Of course the scenario is silly, and if hypothetically it would happen everyone would see through such shenanigans. To placate Vandroiy perhaps an impartial person or group should judge.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 01:34:58 PM
What Vandroiy is afraid of is you pulling shenanigans. As an example: If you set up BTCSTv.2 in a few months, with exactly the same conditions, and transfer all users' funds there, then you could claim that BTCST is shut down and you returned every coin to your lenders('s new accounts) and therefore you win.

Of course the scenario is silly, and if hypothetically it would happen everyone would see through such shenanigans. To placate Vandroiy perhaps an impartial person or group should judge.

Changing the name and moving funds is one thing.  Returning all the coins is another.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 03:42:22 PM
I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.

The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.

If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.

If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.

I have a solution for this that makes you no trouble at all, but keeps my constraints.

If you do an orderly shutdown, your half of the bet gets repaid a few weeks after the shutdown, but you must place it in again if you or BS&T start another Ponzi-suspicious endeavor within the bet's time-frame (anything that relies heavily on people lending you money). My half gets locked up until the end of the bet's time or a default, and if the end comes, is donated to charity.

Nobody suffers. Your funds don't get locked, the charity donation is at least as good in 2013 as it is today, and I need not fear you just faking a shutdown with some mountain of money from whatever previous heists of yours, or whatever strange tactics.

Edit: This is really just formulation stuff now. Unless you plan to shutdown quickly after the bet, just to start-up something very similar right afterwards, the clause is of no consequence to you. Wager comes back, charity gets paid automatically, no hassle for you at all.

Edit2: There has to be some way to make this simple. I'm trying to think up some way to formulate it that doesn't get too convoluted... gimme a moment.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 05:34:31 PM
Okay. Whatever. We've been stalling this long enough; an orderly shutdown for 5k would be quite excessive, you'd have to execute the charity thing with it, and someone would see what's going on, and I give >90% that you couldn't pay even if you wanted to. 5k charity to see you do the monkey? Acceptable.

Disagreement is over, back to getting this thing done. I'm working with nanotube to finish the contract.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: koin on July 06, 2012, 05:54:01 PM
doesn't this open a blackmail opportunity against pirate?

i can claim that my withdrawal of my account (which i don't have) is being refused.  and a little birdie tells pirate i can shut up for a few dozens of bitcoins.

how would anyone know i really have or don't have funds at pirate?

or even if i did have an account, and i did successfully withdraw, i could still claim my withdraw request was refused hoping to collect on a bet on the "will default" side.

documenting transactions (encrypted with hashes published) so that nobody can see them normally but if there is a dispute then the content of any specific transaction can be revealed by either party and then verified is one precaution.

there are so many holes.  is this really workable?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ineededausername on July 06, 2012, 05:58:52 PM
I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.  

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

Perfect and I don't think you could have picked a better escrow.  When your funds hit the escrow let me know.

O.o

This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: LoweryCBS on July 06, 2012, 06:31:59 PM
http://i.imgur.com/NPvbg.gif


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: LoweryCBS on July 06, 2012, 06:34:54 PM
Quote
This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)

I've already done the math on that, and it's a beautiful arbitrage scenario!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 06:47:03 PM
lol, it's just as priceless as always, just that this time nobody is trying to make up explanations.

The pirate might still be tricking me, yarr. But it'd be strange if I were betting on that, no? So what am I thinking that he thinks? ???


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 07:02:48 PM
I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.

The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.

If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.

If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.

I have a solution for this that makes you no trouble at all, but keeps my constraints.

If you do an orderly shutdown, your half of the bet gets repaid a few weeks after the shutdown, but you must place it in again if you or BS&T start another Ponzi-suspicious endeavor within the bet's time-frame (anything that relies heavily on people lending you money). My half gets locked up until the end of the bet's time or a default, and if the end comes, is donated to charity.

Nobody suffers. Your funds don't get locked, the charity donation is at least as good in 2013 as it is today, and I need not fear you just faking a shutdown with some mountain of money from whatever previous heists of yours, or whatever strange tactics.

Edit: This is really just formulation stuff now. Unless you plan to shutdown quickly after the bet, just to start-up something very similar right afterwards, the clause is of no consequence to you. Wager comes back, charity gets paid automatically, no hassle for you at all.

Edit2: There has to be some way to make this simple. I'm trying to think up some way to formulate it that doesn't get too convoluted... gimme a moment.

Nope, the moment all my lenders have every coin back it's over.  I WIN.  Your slander towards me is about me running a Ponzi.  If I ran one, I would be way underwater by now.  This is an easy bet for you, since you know what I'm doing, right?

Those are my terms, lets play.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 07:13:54 PM
Nope, the moment all my lenders have every coin back it's over.  I WIN.  Your slander towards me is about me running a Ponzi.  If I ran one, I would be way underwater by now.  This is an easy bet for you, since you know what I'm doing, right?

Those are my terms, lets play.

Either you're not reading my posts or trying to use double-inverse psychology on me. Read the post after that one.

We're preparing the contract, I'm in. I know this actually gives me a chance to lose, but isn't that the point of a real bet? Talk with nanotube on IRC to see the current contract version.

Edit: when this is all over, and you didn't dig up lots of funds, please tell me whether you were trying to bluff me with this post. I love the psycho-games you play, even when I don't know whether I'm winning them. Worthy opponents are a feat in itself. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 07:21:00 PM
Nope, the moment all my lenders have every coin back it's over.  I WIN.  Your slander towards me is about me running a Ponzi.  If I ran one, I would be way underwater by now.  This is an easy bet for you, since you know what I'm doing, right?

Those are my terms, lets play.

Either you're not reading my posts or trying to use double-inverse psychology on me. Read the post after that one.

We're preparing the contract, I'm in. I know this actually gives me a chance to lose, but isn't that the point of a real bet? Talk with nanotube on IRC to see the current contract version.

Edit: when this is all over, and you didn't dig up lots of funds, please tell me whether you were trying to bluff me with this post. I love the psycho-games you play, even when I don't know whether I'm winning them. Worthy opponents are a feat in itself. :)

I just want you to understand here as well as the contract what the rules are.  This confirms it for me. 

Let's roll, good luck.

-pirate


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: kneim on July 06, 2012, 07:30:34 PM
All trolls and gamers here. If it isn't a ponzy, you will loose. If it is a ponzy, you will loose also.

A ponzy ends on unexpected falling prices normally. But when this will come, is not really predictable. So it's a bet on time.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on July 06, 2012, 07:40:00 PM
This bet is actually a win-win for both players

-Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40

-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it

Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet
Hey guys, I just heard Vandroiy is the same person as pirateat40!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 07:41:26 PM
This bet is actually a win-win for both players

-Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40

-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it

Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet
Hey guys, I just heard Vandroiy is the same person as pirateat40!

DAMNIT! My plan almost worked.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nrd525 on July 06, 2012, 08:17:06 PM
Pirate may lose reputation from taking this bet if a lot of people with good reputations decide to bet against him, and fewer bet with him.

Is Nanotube extremely reliable? He has been around forever and started bitcoin-otc.  That is all I know.

For arbitraging the bet (betting for a default and depositing money with Pirate), you can still lose money if Pirate closes up the operation and returns the money before your interest exceeds the size of your bet.  However, that seems the least likely of the three options (default, growth, return money).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 06, 2012, 08:18:01 PM
nanotube is extremely reliable. Excellent choice.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 08:40:11 PM
I think we're giving him a hard time. Sorry nanotube! ;D

I wanna seal this already, I'm really curious what Pirateat40 will do. In all honesty, I can't tell, just guess the odds. If he manages to pay out, I know he actually got more coins somewhere, and I learned he's the guy to go through great hassle to get back at people. I really doubt it, but who knows?

If he stalls, it's obvious he will not take the bet and default soon.

And then he could just sign it and act as if everything's normal. That's where BS&T is healthier than expected and we'll get a major Ponzi final -- if he correctly guessed the bet will aid his credibility as much as he hopes.

I couldn't make that call; really wondering what his choice will be, and whether he has all three options in the first place.



Currently, he's talking with nanotube. I don't see any new info @tm...

No wait, he may just be stalling. Man. No share for me, Pirateat40?

Edit: Why is this so complicated... can't we just agree on nanotube judging dubious cases with some delay? It's not like I'm claiming there will be a minor problem in the bookkeeping, and I pretty much confirmed I'm fucked if you put up the money from wherever, as long as nobody notices that "wherever" is a trick.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: fatigue on July 06, 2012, 08:45:53 PM
http://i46.tinypic.com/qrkk0w.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: notme on July 06, 2012, 08:50:44 PM
But doesn't know it?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jamesg on July 06, 2012, 09:02:02 PM

Damned Cylons!

Don't forget that pirateat40 and I are also the same person.....  just sayin.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: herzmeister on July 06, 2012, 09:07:38 PM
Nah, I can confirm Vandroiy is *not* pirate. I know Vandroiy in person, and he's more like out of LOTR than the Carribean.  :P


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: fatigue on July 06, 2012, 09:30:43 PM
http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/23070802.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: runlinux on July 06, 2012, 09:33:16 PM
Go back to sleep...  :D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: fatigue on July 06, 2012, 09:34:22 PM
Go back to sleep...  :D

alright, alright ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 09:38:55 PM
We're all three on IRC, trying to finish, check and sign the final contract.

I guess that's it, finally getting an answer to what Pirateat40 has been planning on this. If he plans a payout, he'll announce it soon, since I doubt he's infinitely rich. ;) In that case, my only request for you guys is to push him to get the funds to a charity before there is a new lending operation. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nanotube on July 06, 2012, 09:43:55 PM
Contract signed by me. Expect same contract signed by pirateat40 and vandroiy shortly. Once deposits are made, I'll post confirmation message.

Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

This contract is a contingent payout agreement between irc user known as pirateat40 (otc gpg key fingerprint 067508A49BBE0E8216A61A94614DB74CFA5B357E) and irc user known as vandroiy (otc gpg key fingerprint 5BD4BBB2FAABBB6877396A720380BA6269B31D08).

otc user nanotube (otc gpg key fingerprint D8B11AAC59A873B0F38D475CE7F938BEC95594B2) will serve as escrow agent for the agreement, holding in his care the bitcoin contributions from both parties, until such a time as the contingency can be decided unambiguously.

The contingency in question is to be the default of by pirateat40 (defined below) on BTCST obligations. In case default occurs, the funds held by nanotube will be disbursed to an address of vandroiy's choosing. In case default does not occur, the funds will be disbursed to an address of pirateat40's choice.

pirateat40 and vandroiy shall each deposit with nanotube 5050 (five thousand and fifty) bitcoins, of which 50 (fifty) shall be a fee to nanotube, and 5000 (five thousand) shall go toward the contingent payout, for a total of 100 (one hundred) bitcoins fee to nanotube, and 10000 (ten thousand) bitcoins contingent payout.

=Definitions=

==Pirate default==

A default will be construed to have occurred, if at any time prior to October 1 2013, 00.01 UTC, BTCST will be late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST.

===Verification of default claims===

nanotube will hold in his possession a data set containing hashed usernames and withdrawal addresses of all BTCST account holders, and will be supplied any differences in such table at regular intervals, in case of account closures or creations. A user making a claim must submit to nanotube his BTCST account username, and registered BTCST withdrawal address, as well as any supporting documentation as to the payments that were due but failed to be disbursed.

===Unexpected contingencies===

In the event of any unexpected contingencies not explicitly described in this contract, or any ambiguities, nanotube shall have final discretion in the determination of contract outcome.

===Change in BTCST ToS===

BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days. Such changes may include changes in promised interest rates (as long as interest rates do not go below zero), changes in interest disbursement frequency (not to exceed 1 month intervals), interest tiers, forced withdrawals. Such changes shall not be construed to be a default event.

The event of dissolution of the BTCST business and return of all owed funds to all account holders, also shall not be construed as a default event.

==BTCST==

BTCST is the business known as "Bitcoin Savings and Trust", currently being operated by pirateat40, with current web address of https://btcst.com/ .
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----

iEYEARECAAYFAk/3W14ACgkQ5/k4vslVlLK1iwCcC/9DejW57u4Z+bLGnjKseEpN
GOEAn0vzfaCUYWlkW1mSyRRyRxsVpkmc
=CoVk
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 09:45:28 PM
Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

This contract is a contingent payout agreement between irc user known as pirateat40 (otc gpg key fingerprint 067508A49BBE0E8216A61A94614DB74CFA5B357E) and irc user known as vandroiy (otc gpg key fingerprint 5BD4BBB2FAABBB6877396A720380BA6269B31D08).

otc user nanotube (otc gpg key fingerprint D8B11AAC59A873B0F38D475CE7F938BEC95594B2) will serve as escrow agent for the agreement, holding in his care the bitcoin contributions from both parties, until such a time as the contingency can be decided unambiguously.

The contingency in question is to be the default of by pirateat40 (defined below) on BTCST obligations. In case default occurs, the funds held by nanotube will be disbursed to an address of vandroiy's choosing. In case default does not occur, the funds will be disbursed to an address of pirateat40's choice.

pirateat40 and vandroiy shall each deposit with nanotube 5050 (five thousand and fifty) bitcoins, of which 50 (fifty) shall be a fee to nanotube, and 5000 (five thousand) shall go toward the contingent payout, for a total of 100 (one hundred) bitcoins fee to nanotube, and 10000 (ten thousand) bitcoins contingent payout.

=Definitions=

==Pirate default==

A default will be construed to have occurred, if at any time prior to October 1 2013, 00.01 UTC, BTCST will be late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST.

===Verification of default claims===

nanotube will hold in his possession a data set containing hashed usernames and withdrawal addresses of all BTCST account holders, and will be supplied any differences in such table at regular intervals, in case of account closures or creations. A user making a claim must submit to nanotube his BTCST account username, and registered BTCST withdrawal address, as well as any supporting documentation as to the payments that were due but failed to be disbursed.

===Unexpected contingencies===

In the event of any unexpected contingencies not explicitly described in this contract, or any ambiguities, nanotube shall have final discretion in the determination of contract outcome.

===Change in BTCST ToS===

BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days. Such changes may include changes in promised interest rates (as long as interest rates do not go below zero), changes in interest disbursement frequency (not to exceed 1 month intervals), interest tiers, forced withdrawals. Such changes shall not be construed to be a default event.

The event of dissolution of the BTCST business and return of all owed funds to all account holders, also shall not be construed as a default event.

==BTCST==

BTCST is the business known as "Bitcoin Savings and Trust", currently being operated by pirateat40, with current web address of https://btcst.com/ .

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.11 (GNU/Linux)

iQIcBAEBAgAGBQJP915pAAoJEAOAumJpsx0IwioP/1L3AH3lJ4AWAL8nTG3O2Tz9
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I2eGwFkoHUqDlAsBW+MLmMb0wOsLuAbTBdbXb98BEvY8/r5PjON2ORPQkoFQixCy
AnxQ/jGFB86D5K5Q4Val2GAfQbAIkXnNIbgLdOcSgSh8pD4z/r2QWTv8oBx+YmIs
3ZmETh+q2LPB18QhDsxpF4qNpIb+d4ymvuRc3MOhS1Z4KacAmNZturDAVV5Ywj/R
4nj1AIlCoXWnNG5SqGCWA5mVQMjrXuy8C8Fe29IYg9WcetVEICTKn64hzu6vokyN
1ac9pIGjtYTZOrrqAL/ulf35MVHlTN/tyXQfIEZZKbvY4KBX4pBFhAtAyqAoN3FL
E7OwLrsTxkTZwNkj2X/kiZQviW1vzz3B08CT002z+QjprA2M4/PuOqcawuLUyU4c
QMY11FajaGXiEEANEN/nKT/+qj3ZF27jtphD6BJ6libgd9jwD5y7sjrNsOKqTxwB
tyYuiaxo6Mw1BRQOZcumdalBms4m5aUMo+XrJsrRPhoS+MgZ43P6bZCcSto93IrO
cKFIVOUTO6Jlqh1DwMSQ
=Ig2i
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 06, 2012, 09:49:17 PM
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

This contract is a contingent payout agreement between irc user known as pirateat40 (otc gpg key fingerprint 067508A49BBE0E8216A61A94614DB74CFA5B357E) and irc user known as vandroiy (otc gpg key fingerprint 5BD4BBB2FAABBB6877396A720380BA6269B31D08).

otc user nanotube (otc gpg key fingerprint D8B11AAC59A873B0F38D475CE7F938BEC95594B2) will serve as escrow agent for the agreement, holding in his care the bitcoin contributions from both parties, until such a time as the contingency can be decided unambiguously.

The contingency in question is to be the default of by pirateat40 (defined below) on BTCST obligations. In case default occurs, the funds held by nanotube will be disbursed to an address of vandroiy's choosing. In case default does not occur, the funds will be disbursed to an address of pirateat40's choice.

pirateat40 and vandroiy shall each deposit with nanotube 5050 (five thousand and fifty) bitcoins, of which 50 (fifty) shall be a fee to nanotube, and 5000 (five thousand) shall go toward the contingent payout, for a total of 100 (one hundred) bitcoins fee to nanotube, and 10000 (ten thousand) bitcoins contingent payout.

=Definitions=

==Pirate default==

A default will be construed to have occurred, if at any time prior to October 1 2013, 00.01 UTC, BTCST will be late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST.

===Verification of default claims===

nanotube will hold in his possession a data set containing hashed usernames and withdrawal addresses of all BTCST account holders, and will be supplied any differences in such table at regular intervals, in case of account closures or creations. A user making a claim must submit to nanotube his BTCST account username, and registered BTCST withdrawal address, as well as any supporting documentation as to the payments that were due but failed to be disbursed.

===Unexpected contingencies===

In the event of any unexpected contingencies not explicitly described in this contract, or any ambiguities, nanotube shall have final discretion in the determination of contract outcome.

===Change in BTCST ToS===

BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days. Such changes may include changes in promised interest rates (as long as interest rates do not go below zero), changes in interest disbursement frequency (not to exceed 1 month intervals), interest tiers, forced withdrawals. Such changes shall not be construed to be a default event.

The event of dissolution of the BTCST business and return of all owed funds to all account holders, also shall not be construed as a default event.

==BTCST==

BTCST is the business known as "Bitcoin Savings and Trust", currently being operated by pirateat40, with current web address of https://btcst.com/ .
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Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: fatigue on July 06, 2012, 09:50:10 PM
This pleases me that Vandroiy has been true to his word :D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nanotube on July 06, 2012, 09:53:21 PM
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

pirateat40's signature on btcst bet contract verified.
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=cvx0
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

This contract is a contingent payout agreement between irc user known as pirateat40 (otc gpg key fingerprint 067508A49BBE0E8216A61A94614DB74CFA5B357E) and irc user known as vandroiy (otc gpg key fingerprint 5BD4BBB2FAABBB6877396A720380BA6269B31D08).

otc user nanotube (otc gpg key fingerprint D8B11AAC59A873B0F38D475CE7F938BEC95594B2) will serve as escrow agent for the agreement, holding in his care the bitcoin contributions from both parties, until such a time as the contingency can be decided unambiguously.

The contingency in question is to be the default of by pirateat40 (defined below) on BTCST obligations. In case default occurs, the funds held by nanotube will be disbursed to an address of vandroiy's choosing. In case default does not occur, the funds will be disbursed to an address of pirateat40's choice.

pirateat40 and vandroiy shall each deposit with nanotube 5050 (five thousand and fifty) bitcoins, of which 50 (fifty) shall be a fee to nanotube, and 5000 (five thousand) shall go toward the contingent payout, for a total of 100 (one hundred) bitcoins fee to nanotube, and 10000 (ten thousand) bitcoins contingent payout.

=Definitions=

==Pirate default==

A default will be construed to have occurred, if at any time prior to October 1 2013, 00.01 UTC, BTCST will be late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST.

===Verification of default claims===

nanotube will hold in his possession a data set containing hashed usernames and withdrawal addresses of all BTCST account holders, and will be supplied any differences in such table at regular intervals, in case of account closures or creations. A user making a claim must submit to nanotube his BTCST account username, and registered BTCST withdrawal address, as well as any supporting documentation as to the payments that were due but failed to be disbursed.

===Unexpected contingencies===

In the event of any unexpected contingencies not explicitly described in this contract, or any ambiguities, nanotube shall have final discretion in the determination of contract outcome.

===Change in BTCST ToS===

BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days. Such changes may include changes in promised interest rates (as long as interest rates do not go below zero), changes in interest disbursement frequency (not to exceed 1 month intervals), interest tiers, forced withdrawals. Such changes shall not be construed to be a default event.

The event of dissolution of the BTCST business and return of all owed funds to all account holders, also shall not be construed as a default event.

==BTCST==

BTCST is the business known as "Bitcoin Savings and Trust", currently being operated by pirateat40, with current web address of https://btcst.com/ .
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Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nanotube on July 06, 2012, 10:03:20 PM
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

vandroiy's signature on btcst bet contract verified
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=eqDH
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

This contract is a contingent payout agreement between irc user known as pirateat40 (otc gpg key fingerprint 067508A49BBE0E8216A61A94614DB74CFA5B357E) and irc user known as vandroiy (otc gpg key fingerprint 5BD4BBB2FAABBB6877396A720380BA6269B31D08).

otc user nanotube (otc gpg key fingerprint D8B11AAC59A873B0F38D475CE7F938BEC95594B2) will serve as escrow agent for the agreement, holding in his care the bitcoin contributions from both parties, until such a time as the contingency can be decided unambiguously.

The contingency in question is to be the default of by pirateat40 (defined below) on BTCST obligations. In case default occurs, the funds held by nanotube will be disbursed to an address of vandroiy's choosing. In case default does not occur, the funds will be disbursed to an address of pirateat40's choice.

pirateat40 and vandroiy shall each deposit with nanotube 5050 (five thousand and fifty) bitcoins, of which 50 (fifty) shall be a fee to nanotube, and 5000 (five thousand) shall go toward the contingent payout, for a total of 100 (one hundred) bitcoins fee to nanotube, and 10000 (ten thousand) bitcoins contingent payout.

=Definitions=

==Pirate default==

A default will be construed to have occurred, if at any time prior to October 1 2013, 00.01 UTC, BTCST will be late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST.

===Verification of default claims===

nanotube will hold in his possession a data set containing hashed usernames and withdrawal addresses of all BTCST account holders, and will be supplied any differences in such table at regular intervals, in case of account closures or creations. A user making a claim must submit to nanotube his BTCST account username, and registered BTCST withdrawal address, as well as any supporting documentation as to the payments that were due but failed to be disbursed.

===Unexpected contingencies===

In the event of any unexpected contingencies not explicitly described in this contract, or any ambiguities, nanotube shall have final discretion in the determination of contract outcome.

===Change in BTCST ToS===

BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days. Such changes may include changes in promised interest rates (as long as interest rates do not go below zero), changes in interest disbursement frequency (not to exceed 1 month intervals), interest tiers, forced withdrawals. Such changes shall not be construed to be a default event.

The event of dissolution of the BTCST business and return of all owed funds to all account holders, also shall not be construed as a default event.

==BTCST==

BTCST is the business known as "Bitcoin Savings and Trust", currently being operated by pirateat40, with current web address of https://btcst.com/ .

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-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Jouke on July 06, 2012, 10:14:09 PM
I think this whole ordeal is epic.

I am a bit astounded by this bet actually going trough. I congratulate vandroiy :) ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 10:15:41 PM
He actually confirmed. Am I donating to charity now? ???

Time will tell I guess. ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 06, 2012, 10:15:49 PM
 bahaha!!!   Vandroiy, I already thought you were a fool, but boy did you just confirm it.    This whole thing pleases me greatly :)


Did we decide which charity is getting Vandroiy's money?

Also does this mean you'll stop your horrible trolling until the bet is settled?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 10:16:27 PM
bahaha!!!   Vandroiy, I already thought you were a fool, but boy did you just confirm it.    This whole thing pleases me greatly :)

Did we decide which charity is getting his money?

No, please do.

Now, that's mean. Only fools donate to charity? :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Serge on July 06, 2012, 10:16:46 PM
He actually confirmed. Am I donating to charity now? ???

Time will tell I guess. ;D

only if you win  8)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: fatigue on July 06, 2012, 10:27:35 PM
bahaha!!!   Vandroiy, I already thought you were a fool, but boy did you just confirm it.    This whole thing pleases me greatly :)

Did we decide which charity is getting his money?

No, please do.

Now, that's mean. Only fools donate to charity? :)

See,  the thing is, you're not donating to charity as you claim to be if you lose, Pirate is. Your money will be going to a charity, yes, but not by your choice, by his. Don't assume credit for that which you have not done.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: LoweryCBS on July 06, 2012, 10:32:09 PM
Could be just a coincidence, but just caught this post over in the LENDING forum:

Quote from: notPirateat40 date=justnow
Need to borrow 132K BTC until Oct 2013 to settle some stupid bet, I'm offering 6.99% a week. Arrrr...


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: miscreanity on July 06, 2012, 10:35:44 PM
So where's the press release?

Epic Wager Rocks Bitcoin Community


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 10:39:17 PM
Could be just a coincidence, but just caught this post over in the LENDING forum:

Quote from: notPirateat40 date=justnow
Need to borrow 132K BTC until Oct 2013 to settle some stupid bet, I'm offering 6.99% a week. Arrrr...

 ;D

The funds are actually underway now.

Yea, the question is whether he has any means of doing that *and* not losing more than 5k because of the lender shakeup / fees / whatever.

This question determines what the next part of the show will be!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: wachtwoord on July 06, 2012, 10:43:02 PM
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 06, 2012, 10:46:27 PM
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? ;)

or

3.  5k is chump change for him and he's more than willing to put that out there in an effort to silence the trolls.   I'd do exactly the same.     He's obviously not interested in the money as when (sorry, if) he wins it's going to charity.

This is win win for Pirate.   Even if he is running a scam, all he has to do is drag it out until November 2013 and hey presto.    A really stupid bet to make on Vandroiy's part, but oh well.   A fool and his money etc etc.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 10:49:12 PM
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? ;)

or

3.  5k is chump change for him and he's more than willing to put that out there in an effort to silence the trolls.   I'd do exactly the same.


Yes, 3. is pretty reasonable. I'd do exactly the same if I was running a Ponzi, too. Of course if he isn't running a Ponzi, he just bought a low yield but very safe interest bearing deposit. He wins either way.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: wachtwoord on July 06, 2012, 10:50:58 PM
err imo 3==1


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Jouke on July 06, 2012, 10:59:25 PM
err imo 3==1
+1

 ;D ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 06, 2012, 11:03:18 PM
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? ;)

No! He might be planning to orderly shut down in the next two months. That would make him win!

Just that then, he'll re-open as a Ponzi for sure. But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I think it's pretty pointless to make such a show only to get back at me. But this guy is a psycho-poker-face, I'll only know when it's over. I know I'm taking that chance. Betting ain't no fun without risk!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nanotube on July 06, 2012, 11:19:48 PM
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

I confirm receipt of 5050 btc from pirateat40 and vandroiy
each, for the btcst bet.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----

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=Qyxi
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 06, 2012, 11:23:59 PM
There is a winner: nanotube. He's already banking 100 BTC ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on July 06, 2012, 11:32:06 PM
doesn't this open a blackmail opportunity against pirate?

i can claim that my withdrawal of my account (which i don't have) is being refused.  and a little birdie tells pirate i can shut up for a few dozens of bitcoins.

how would anyone know i really have or don't have funds at pirate?

or even if i did have an account, and i did successfully withdraw, i could still claim my withdraw request was refused hoping to collect on a bet on the "will default" side.
The blockchain analysts already have all of the deposit and withdrawal addresses. This would be trivial to disprove, regardless of what nanotube is given.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 06, 2012, 11:35:07 PM
This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? ;)

or

3.  5k is chump change for him and he's more than willing to put that out there in an effort to silence the trolls.   I'd do exactly the same.


Yes, 3. is pretty reasonable. I'd do exactly the same if I was running a Ponzi, too. Of course if he isn't running a Ponzi, he just bought a low yield but very safe interest bearing deposit. He wins either way.

err imo 3==1

No, 3!=1. It's actually the only rational thing for Pirate to do in either case.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 07, 2012, 12:03:25 AM
See,  the thing is, you're not donating to charity as you claim to be if you lose, Pirate is. Your money will be going to a charity, yes, but not by your choice, by his. Don't assume credit for that which you have not done.

Missed this before.

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: fatigue on July 07, 2012, 12:08:21 AM
See,  the thing is, you're not donating to charity as you claim to be if you lose, Pirate is. Your money will be going to a charity, yes, but not by your choice, by his. Don't assume credit for that which you have not done.

Missed this before.

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

I wasnt trying to put the emphasis on the point that he should be taking the credit, but rather that you shouldnt.

Anyways, ill let it just be and by October of next year we will see one way or another! :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 07, 2012, 12:20:10 AM

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.

This kind of talk is the very reason I chose you.

Enjoy,



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 07, 2012, 12:45:18 AM
I wasnt trying to put the emphasis on the point that he should be taking the credit, but rather that you shouldnt.

Anyways, ill let it just be and by October of next year we will see one way or another! :)

I honestly think it must be earlier.

But yes, that would really be best. Imagine someone talked to you with the assumption the Earth is flat while going on a trip to space. What'll you say if it becomes a flamewar? I opt for "I will apologize if it's wrong, but can't you just wait and see for yourself?" Once you've seen it, that's just it.

A good part of the flamewar stems from people being over-aggressive in discussions and wrong. One of the two is okay, but if you ever do both, it's really necessary to write an apology. Again, I promise I will if I should I be wrong -- this does not concern the bet, but the statement that we're faced with a HYIP Ponzi.

After all of this is over, I'd like it if we gather the people involved and sort this out. Because if all of this this is what it clearly looks like to me, this place is pretty defunct as a community. And by that I mean worse than most 4chan boards.

In fact, I'm off to visit some bronies. They're the same weird nerd crew, just not intent of working against each other at all times, even for mutual damage. Have all fun pushing the scam larger, and take pride if you manage to say I was paid out of it or got me loss-butthurt, fuck if I care. E-Positive, Kelly said yes, just be the machine and even if you lose, silently analyze the mistake for the next $$$ or BTCBTCBTC, for money is the measure of all in life.



Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.

This kind of talk is the very reason I chose you.

Enjoy,

Thanks, Pirateat40. I wonder why they thought I'd take the bet. You, at least, are honest with yourself.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: chsados on July 07, 2012, 02:31:24 AM
Vandroiy.... if you want to give to charity, i really could use help on my rent.  It really makes me feel like an ant with that amounts of bitcoins you guys hold :(


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Bjork on July 07, 2012, 03:13:30 AM
Has anyone ever heard of Intrade.com?  Would be interesting to see "pirateat40 defaults before end of 2012" on there.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Stephen Gornick on July 07, 2012, 03:51:01 AM
Has anyone ever heard of Intrade.com?  Would be interesting to see "pirateat40 defaults before end of 2012" on there.

There's a Bitcoin-powered predictions market, and that's currently the bet statement with the largest wager, by a factor of 2:1 over the next largest:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 07, 2012, 06:45:19 AM
Quote
This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)

I've already done the math on that, and it's a beautiful arbitrage scenario!


Its less than doubling, because the deposit would be lost in a default. But there is a profit, which comes from exploiting the market inefficiency which is pirateat40 lenders' mistaken beliefs of continued returns (its their 5k btc he would win). In an efficient market, insurance on deposits would cost the interest earned, exactly.

But while Vandroiy is getting just a sliver, pirate gets the pie.

I think the publicity of this bet will inspire confidence, accelerating growth and therefore the inevitable endgame, default. Its in both parties' best interest (both exploiting the same inefficiency).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 07, 2012, 07:58:03 AM
But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ribuck on July 07, 2012, 08:00:24 AM
I think it's funny how Vandroiy spent so much energy trying to save people from making mistakes with BS&T and their money, yet was resistant to others trying to save him from making mistakes with BS&T and his money.

There's a Bitcoin-powered predictions market...
Unfortunately it's not really a predictions market, because you can't trade bets. A real predictions market for BS&T default would be awesome!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Bitcoin Oz on July 07, 2012, 08:48:58 AM
 :o


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 07, 2012, 08:56:30 AM
This is win win for Pirate.   Even if he is running a scam, all he has to do is drag it out until November 2013 and hey presto.    A really stupid bet to make on Vandroiy's part, but oh well.   A fool and his money etc etc.

He can't drag it out that long. If he keeps the interest rate high, his money will be finished through payouts long before that. If he lowers the interest rate, enough "investors" will recall their money, so he would quickly run out of money too.

Perhaps he's a millionaire, and he can afford to lose a large amount of money, merely to bolster his ego and inflate his reputation. In that case Vandroiy would indeed lose, Pirate would start a new Ponzi scheme, using his now improved reputation, and would rip off even more unsuspecting "investors".

As to "stupid bet", I'd say, no risk—no fun (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/09/050919081143.htm).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 07, 2012, 08:59:49 AM
All you're missing from that post is an "IMO" :)

At least you don't have any money to lose in all this,  so more power to you for being smart enough not to make crazy bets with seemingly rich, mysterious strangers on the Internet :D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 07, 2012, 09:00:15 AM
There is a winner: nanotube. He's already banking 100 BTC ;D

Sometimes it pays to have earned trust.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 07, 2012, 09:01:05 AM
But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

If Pirate did that, he would have to pay out first, which he probably cannot. If instead he switched accounts into a new scheme directly, then that would be considered a continuation of the old scheme, and the bet would cover that too.

If he paid out piecemeal and thus moved people over one by one, that would be considered a trick, and the new scheme would again be considered a continuation of the old one and covered by the bet.

At least that is how I would see it. We could ask the escrow holder. The bet contract contains a clause stating that, if conditions move outside the explicit bet conditions, nanotube is free to decide how to disburse the money.

Perhaps we should better wait and see what happens, rather than discuss the crazier hypothetical outcomes. Perhaps Pirate reckons he can make up for the 5,000 BTC by attracting another "investor" or two on the strength of his publicized bet, and has planned to grab and run before DEF CON anyway. That is the outcome I currently consider most likely. The second-most likely outcome I consider that he somehow manages to drag on for a longer time, but certainly not until October 2013. In that case he would need to pull a trick for his announced DEF CON appearance.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Ferroh on July 07, 2012, 09:29:55 AM
Quote
110*0.06 *52 = 343.2

The correct math for this results in 2276.7, NOT 343.2.

You do not seem qualified to run bonds like this :/


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 07, 2012, 09:36:49 AM
Quote
110*0.06 *52 = 343.2

The correct math for this results in 2276.7, NOT 343.2.

You do not seem qualified to run bonds like this :/

You do not seem qualified to comment on bonds like this. The math is correct if coins are not reinvested. Please read the OP.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Ferroh on July 07, 2012, 09:46:16 AM
You do not seem qualified to comment on bonds like this. The math is correct if coins are not reinvested. Please read the OP.

Fair enough, my mistake.

Since you can double your money in 12 weeks at 6% per week returns, why would a pro pirate investor invest in this for a year?

The upside for pro pirates is not high enough. You need as many pro pirate purchasers as default pirate purchasers for this to really take off.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 07, 2012, 09:48:54 AM
Correction: That's because he let Vandroiy manipulate him into a put-up-or-shut-up. Now that he knows he overstepped and can be right or wrong about the stability of his "business" and quite possibly lose, he's starting to wriggle on the line. First, he claimed he was giving to charity, when that was one of the mechanisms Vandroiy used to goad him into the bet. Then he acted buddy-buddy with Vandroiy as if this were a gentlemen's bet, when HE IS BETTING WITH AN ADVERSARY (you know, "more like guidelines") who libeled him all over the place in an effort to end his Ponzi "business". Now he's claiming the community is broken because, you know, this stuff can happen.

While I won't say Vandroiy played this like a matador, he did pick and goad the right bull. Pirate saw red and charged right at the cape. Who knows when the bull will die, but the odds are very much not on its side. It remains to be seen if Vandroiy will get an ear or two. ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 07, 2012, 09:51:25 AM
Correction: That's because he let Vandroiy manipulate him into a put-up-or-shut-up. Now that he knows he overstepped and can be right or wrong about the stability of his "business" and quite possibly lose, he's starting to wriggle on the line. First, he claimed he was giving to charity, when that was one of the mechanisms Vandroiy used to goad him into the bet. Then he acted buddy-buddy with Vandroiy as if this were a gentlemen's bet, when HE IS BETTING WITH AN ADVERSARY (you know, "more like guidelines") who libeled him all over the place in an effort to end his Ponzi "business". Now he's claiming the community is broken because, you know, this stuff can happen.

While I won't say Vandroiy played this like a matador, he did pick and goad the right bull. Pirate saw red and charged right at the cape. Who knows when the bull will die, but the odds are very much not on its side. It remains to be seen if Vandroiy will get an ear or two. ;D

Good luck with that.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 07, 2012, 09:59:17 AM
You do not seem qualified to comment on bonds like this. The math is correct if coins are not reinvested. Please read the OP.

Fair enough, my mistake.

Since you can double your money in 12 weeks at 6% per week returns, why would a pro pirate investor invest in this for a year?

The upside for pro pirates is not high enough. You need as many pro pirate purchasers as default pirate purchasers for this to really take off.

That was a main consideration - to see if both investors and naysayers would swallow both the risk and the low return in order to "support their side", and also to gauge public opinion by the volume and price of trade in the paired bonds.

It's a moot point now though, there's 1:1 bet between Pirate and Vandroiy.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 07, 2012, 11:05:43 AM
But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

You're missing that, unlike some people, nanotube has a brain. :)

To keep his "trust", which is apparently not zero, Pirateat40 would want to leave a trace to the new operation. It's risky, expensive to do, and if he leaks anything, nanotube will tell him to bugger off.

Edit: remember that the Ponzi abuses human misunderstanding of the exponential function's main property (its derivative being itself) and the implications this has for the expected time-frame people think they can play it. This is why they need months of head-start to push the irrelevant number of "past days run" up!


That's because he let pirate manipulate him into a put-up-or-shut-up. (...)

While I won't say pirate played this like a matador, he did pick and goad the right bull.  Vandroiy saw red and charged right at the cape.  Who knows when the bull will die, but the odds are very much not on its side.  It remains to be seen if pirate will get an ear or two.  ;D

If this is true, he didn't get me to sign as fast as he could have, by far. For the record, about three hours after we knew the bet's terms were serious, the decision was made. Everything else was just a nonsensical show in the hope to minimize the moves of Pirateat40 which would allow to evade and still blame it on me successfully, from the perspective of people who have no clue. Most of the time taken was for the shutdown-reopen scenario that plays little role were he legitimate, and remember it was not Pirateat40 who gave in on it.

To be precise, it was a double-bluff: I showed fear of a potential weakness of me (the shutdown-reopen scenario), and then saw him bluff on this one. In the now remote chance he didn't... bear with me, it's rock-paper-scissors at that point, it's trivial to give me a tail risk on interpreting stances wrongly.

From Pirateat40's viewpoint, I think his move is a close call. The exp growth should overpower any "surface" effects in three to five weeks. He's the psychology master, let's see whether he was right. If he was, well, he profited, and that's all that counts for someone who knows no friends and enemies.

Why am I still explaining part of my thinking to people who are completely oblivious to what is going on here? ??? Pirateat40 doesn't even try to hide it, people just read what they want to read.

Really why do you guys think I took the bet? What does all this even translate to, emotional outburst? Calling someone stupid without a clue what he was thinking is dangerous. I used a vote of five mathematically well-educated people whether we have >50% chance here. The outcome was 5:0. We reduced our initial amount suggestion because we expected a chance Pirateat40 might default instead of accepting if we place too much.

My indicators start to tend to "Pirateat40 was right". Just to clarify it endlessly, this has nothing to do with who wins the bet. I... just can't feel sorry for you guys anymore. It's like looking at these cows that stay on the tracks when they run from trains. Disturbing, but it's just hard to feel with them.



TL;DR: If you are under the impression we are simply betting about Pirateat40's business being a Ponzi, and that we just sucked at staying focused on the point, you need a serious reality check. It took almost two days! On a 1:1 bet we're both certain on? Think again, we're not that inefficient.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 07, 2012, 11:15:54 AM

Really why do you guys think I took the bet?

Mostly just because you're mental.

This is among the stupidest things I've seen on this forum,  and that is really, REALLY saying something.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 07, 2012, 01:11:15 PM

Really why do you guys think I took the bet?

Mostly just because you're mental.

This is among the stupidest things I've seen on this forum,  and that is really, REALLY saying something.

Just quoting this because I'm mental. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jamesg on July 07, 2012, 04:19:19 PM
The ending of the scene is telling.

+1


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on July 07, 2012, 04:49:37 PM
Quote from: Pirate himself really I heard it from a friend who knows the sister of the first mate closely.
I spent the last year building up an immunity to ponzi accusations.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 07, 2012, 04:58:55 PM
Quote from: Pirate himself really I heard it from a friend who knows the sister of the first mate closely.
I spent the last year building up an immunity to ponzi accusations.
Hahahaha


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raize on July 07, 2012, 05:45:04 PM
This scene from Princess Bride can somewhat be duplicated in real life by taking activated charcoal with some olive oil every day. It's recommended to take it at a different time than you take your regular supplements, like before your noon meal.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Blaztoize on July 07, 2012, 06:07:31 PM
This scene from Princess Bride can somewhat be duplicated in real life by taking activated charcoal with some olive oil every day. It's recommended to take it at a different time than you take your regular supplements, like before your noon meal.
http://i.imgur.com/547VE.gif do you know this? :D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 07, 2012, 06:28:00 PM
But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

There will be a default when almost everyone switches. Because they will expect their principal + gains, but there are no gains (at least, not enough for everybody).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 07, 2012, 06:33:53 PM
There will be a default when almost everyone switches. Because they will expect their principal + gains, but there are no gains (at least, not enough for everybody).

So long as not everyone switches at exactly the same time, the sum of the two schemes will have enough to allow people to temporarily withdraw from one and deposit into the other.

Perhaps there could be a bonus if you withdraw directly from the old fund into the new one - that way no real funds are needed at all.

But as pirate said:

Quote
Changing the name and moving funds is one thing.  Returning all the coins is another.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on July 07, 2012, 08:49:05 PM
But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

There will be a default when almost everyone switches. Because they will expect their principal + gains, but there are no gains (at least, not enough for everybody).

Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 07, 2012, 08:58:05 PM
Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi ;)

and if you're an investor, nothing is proof that it is a ponzi. The difference between the transparent market returns of bitcoin is that when the market corrects, we see some price decreases. When the market corrects in pirate's ponzi.. *poof*. The timing of when you withdraw is life-or-death. hope its not too late to take your gains *and* save your principal!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 07, 2012, 09:31:49 PM
Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi ;)

But...Cockblockham's razor!  Plus, video game scams!

Are you just blowing smoke because you want a few more weeks gains and the chance to pull out before everyone else, or are you really that dumb?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 07, 2012, 09:52:06 PM
But...Cockblockham's razor!  Plus, video game scams!

Quoting that too because I'm mental. ??? (No, seriously, you sound like you dislike Occam's Razor, and that's usually a warning sign.)

Have you ever played a persistent-world MMO, or talked with people who play them? I guess all the Everquest clones made everyone forget. People get really really serious about them, they're no doubt useful to model real-world scenarios. This might be the one best source to analyze how a modern, internet-based Ponzi scheme works. Don't just throw that into the bin.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 07, 2012, 10:10:32 PM
Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi ;)

But...Cockblockham's razor!  Plus, video game scams!

Are you just blowing smoke because you want a few more weeks gains and the chance to pull out before everyone else, or are you really that dumb?

Ah bully.   If only you were around to given this type of golden advice when all this started.   Your words of wisdom could have saved us all from 8 months of horrible profit.

::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 07, 2012, 11:00:51 PM
Ah bully.   If only you were around to given this type of golden advice when all this started.   Your words of wisdom could have saved us all from 8 months of horrible profit.

Us all? You were in for 8 months?

As far as I can tell, the vast majority of people/funds are not in for very long yet. If this weren't the case, I could hardly make Ponzi accusations. These only make sense if the influx of new people remains mostly above interest; together with the May hype I would suspect that a lot of people haven't even passed the ten-week mark.

I wonder after how many weeks the typical user makes a break-even withdrawal.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 07, 2012, 11:03:35 PM
Ah bully.   If only you were around to given this type of golden advice when all this started.   Your words of wisdom could have saved us all from 8 months of horrible profit.

Us all? You were in for 8 months?

As far as I can tell, the vast majority of people/funds are not in for very long yet. If this weren't the case, I could hardly make Ponzi accusations. These only make sense if the influx of new people remains mostly above interest; together with the May hype I would suspect that a lot of people haven't even passed the ten-week mark.

I wonder after how many weeks the typical user makes a break-even withdrawal.

Profiting since December myself.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 07, 2012, 11:47:40 PM
Pirate's operation was running way before he opened a forum thread; it was all IRC and there wasn't even a website at first.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 08, 2012, 12:35:51 AM

Profiting since December myself.

Phantom profits. They're only there if you withdraw first at the others' expense. The clock is ticking..


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 08, 2012, 01:20:46 AM

Profiting since December myself.

Phantom profits. They're only there if you withdraw first at the others' expense. The clock is ticking..

Yes, yes... Keep lying to yourself. Maybe it will become true. Are you a politician, or?...
And my clocks don't tick.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: copumpkin on July 08, 2012, 08:19:37 AM
I find it amusing that inconclusive evidence + arrogance + people rejecting one's own interpretation of the evidence = absolute certainty and strong language. Nuance was supplanted by big egos and verbal machismo, and this whole hullabaloo seems to have become more of a pissing match ("just wait and see; I am 100% right and you are 100% wrong!") now than the moral panic ("but the innocents will be hurt!") it started out as.

Where's BTC_Bear when you need him?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on July 08, 2012, 10:01:07 AM
Pirate is a genius.

1. The bet takes and pirate defaults: Van makes 5k
2. The bet takes and pirate doesn't default: van loses 5k
3. The bet doesn't take and van goes long: he makes over 8k
4. The bet doesn't take and van does nothing: he is even

So essentially taking this bet is the only way for van to lose money, and if he is wrong he limited his profit versus going long.

*applause*
If the pirate default is a 100% certainty, then betting on it is not a bad idea. Vandroiy is 100% certain, so this explains his actions.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jamesg on July 08, 2012, 10:26:56 AM
100% certain

Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 08, 2012, 10:47:53 AM
100% certain

Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.

Maybe not even death (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Mageant on July 08, 2012, 10:49:58 AM
Epic!
 :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Scott J on July 08, 2012, 11:19:34 AM
I love this forum ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on July 08, 2012, 11:27:46 AM
100% certain

Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.
Oh, so the taxes one got dropped out since we have Bitcoin? What makes you so sure the death one is certain?

In all seriousness though, I agree. But then he's foolish for being certain, not for taking the bet. Taking the bet is a rational effect of being so certain.

Maybe not even death (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism).
+1


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ninjarobot on July 08, 2012, 12:32:57 PM
It's been going strong for almost a year.

Madoff had been going strong for 38 years (1970-2008). Of course he was only providing ~16.3% ROI per year. At the rate pirate is going he will run into the walls of reality a bit faster than that. Greed is rarely a good adviser. In general you should be very skeptical about anything that promises >7% return per year. Risk and reward go hand in hand. Just because you see some numbers on a screen, and you like what you see does not make it real.

Quote
Three great forces rule the world: stupidity, fear and greed.
--Albert Einstein

Seems like pirate is catering to at least two of these. Of course - There is always the chance he could be a 'genuis' and really cares about helping his clients make tons of money out of the kindness of his heart. Yarr!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 08, 2012, 02:05:56 PM
Pirate is a genius.

1. The bet takes and pirate defaults: Van makes 5k
2. The bet takes and pirate doesn't default: van loses 5k
3. The bet doesn't take and van goes long: he makes over 8k
4. The bet doesn't take and van does nothing: he is even

Worse!

1. The bet takes and pirate defaults: Van makes 5k and Pirateat40 gets Van to shut up, plus the show improves visibility, if he is lucky the PR even makes the bet a profit even though he loses.

4. The bet doesn't take and van does nothing: he can shout "That loser does not put his money where his mouth is, give me more loans!"

Pirateat40 had little to lose in this. Offering was about neutral-win-win, there was no real bad outcome possible.


It's been going strong for almost a year.  You can figure a few benchmarks in terms of timing that would indicate increased levels of maintenance and visibility, which we can roughly correlate to investment activity.

  • Manual loans to get up and running at scale, no external communication of balance other than ad hoc email exchanges or IRC queries
  • Crappy website that basically showed "current balance, expected balance" with x%/day compounded q3d
  • New crappy website
  • Payment restructuring to pay tiered rates weekly
  • Announced payment restructuring for 'trust' and other accounts

People other than I can dig and put dates to these.  I didn't stir in GPUMax for obvious reasons.

I will say that I have a good idea of the total balance through the first few stages.  At least, I know a handful people who have larger loans than I do and roughly what they're holding.  All were early (comparatively) lenders.

This is why I am very comfortable asserting that you are wrong.  You made accusations based on assumptions that you are now discovering may be in error.  Unfortunately, you only came to realize this after you put your money on the table.

When you lose, and you will lose, I hope you are capable of manning up and making amends for being not only a douche, but the bag it came in.

This is very valuable intel, and I thank you for it. Though I don't understand how it reduce my chances in the bet, looks like a classical Ponzi inception to me. Now I know its status is more advanced than I assumed, reducing the possibilities for tricks against me.

But what is it with that last sentence? What does "douchebag" mean anyway? That I'm mistaken? Paid by the government to annoy the great pirate? Can we please pretend we're civilized and use wording that has a meaning beside "Come at me sucker, do the Neanderthal!"

I can live with "jealous". It's still nonsense, but has a remotely sensible model of what I might be thinking. "Douchebag"... I just can't make sense of it other than you being emotionally compromised. The same goes for "son of a bitch", "sucker", "SQUAWK SQUAWK SQUAWK SQUAWK VANDROIY" and whatnot. I can take an insult, but place content into it. "Mental" was also acceptable, it's actually a good hook to act funny.



Anyway, back to topic. If we're past one year, an orderly pay-out is unlikely. A single account starting at 2k would be at >66k by now, an amount BS&T is unlikely to ever pay out. This is good news to me, however it makes the default timing extremely random, since it depends strongly on withdrawal timings of less than 10 people. In addition, these people were not chosen as they are normally in finance.

What I mean by that: people who joined early did not need as many funds to be important now. They are more likely to neglect trading rules that strongly encourage diversification. They might be keeping five-digit BTC accounts with BS&T even though they do not have five-digit BTC wallets. This is usually a grave mistake. For an example of the mathematical problem, see the Kelly Criterion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion)



TL;DR: I think the data works in my favor. If you insult me personally, please use a specific accusation like "slander", "jealous" or "mental".


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 08, 2012, 03:12:42 PM
Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.

Yes, Nothing is 100% (other than death). Very much plus one.

We can only play the odds and the cards given us.

Yup. True words. If I say "certain" in real life, I mean something like .999. In the remaining cases, I'll just have to suck it up. (Well, there is one exception; mathematics includes concepts with real certainty. You lose that when applying them though.)

It still is a Ponzi. Edit: did you guys notice the switch to final accretion mode leaking? :) It's a subtle post, and it's not by Mr. P.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 08, 2012, 04:45:56 PM
So, you're not going to apologize for being disagreeable, then?  It's amusing how you dodge questions, you developmentally delayed donkey-clown.  Can you reply to a point regarding integrity, you insipid ovary, when your specious reasoning and lack of, let's say, imagination, become as obvious as the spirochete that has rotted your excuse for a brain?

Donkey hole.

Edited for a younger audience.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 08, 2012, 04:54:13 PM
Poopoo-head liar liar, pants on fire!

Edited for a younger audience.

Edited for an even younger audience.

Is your avatar a light sculpture of Donald Trump's hair?

No. Close though. It's part of a series of CAD drawings engineers followed to create the scaffolding used to construct his hair.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Hecate on July 08, 2012, 06:02:01 PM
So, you're not going to apologize for being a *********, then?  It's amusing how you dodge questions, you ********* *********.  Can you reply to a point regarding integrity, you ********* *********, when your specious reasoning and lack of, let's say, imagination, become as obvious as ********* that has ********* your ********* *********

*********.

Congratulations, you win a prize for the best and most convincing argument given so far. This clearly shows that the group in favor of pirateat40 is consisting purely of highly intellectual individuals with very high standards who know exactly what they are doing and the risks involved.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 08, 2012, 06:13:29 PM
So, you're not going to apologize for being a *********, then?  It's amusing how you dodge questions, you ********* *********.  Can you reply to a point regarding integrity, you ********* *********, when your specious reasoning and lack of, let's say, imagination, become as obvious as ********* that has ********* your ********* *********

*********.

Congratulations, you win a prize for the best and most convincing argument given so far. This clearly shows that the group in favor of pirateat40 is consisting purely of highly intellectual individuals with very high standards who know exactly what they are doing and the risks involved.

He was actually just making fun of me complaining about content-free personal insults.

But yea, it doesn't get much better if you add an "implicit sarcasm" tag to it. Just the good old flooding attack when a post is a hassle to deal with. And it's not even funny.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 08, 2012, 08:01:10 PM
I was also mocking your continued avoidance of "difficult" questions.  As for the Hecate's (seriously?) comment, I suspect English isn't your first language and that you are not well-read in that language.  I raided so many better authors for those nuggets, admittedly from memory so I may be off a wee bit, that the subtext of classic, calm, contempt may have gone over some readers' heads, as V- appears to have missed any of the references as well.

I suggest spending some time reading T.S. Eliot, Hunter S. Thompson, James Joyce, and Thomas Pynchon to start, especially their letters.  Reading literature will enrich your life and increase the scope of your thoughts and discourse.

And it is a poor thing that you do not understand what "sarcasm" means.  You are in fact all of those things.  You are a waste of space, air, and being.  As they say, the best part of you ran down the crack of your mother's ass and became a stain on the mattress.

If I avoided a question, just re-state it clearly. I have difficulty telling which part of your post is addressing whom, and I'm not so sure this is a language skill problem. Whatever this is trying to show, it's derailing the thread.

Nobody claimed to be versed in English literature. It is not my first language, in case you care. But this is completely beside the point here. ??? Insults do not get an upgrade because they're chained and get references added.

Whatever I'm missing here, how is it possibly relevant? Just stop the flood contribution already.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: miscreanity on July 08, 2012, 08:08:18 PM
As they say, the best part of you ran down the crack of your mother's ass and became a stain on the mattress.

I've always wanted to use that in conversation, and I couldn't imagine a more deserving target.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Hecate on July 08, 2012, 08:10:11 PM
I suggest spending some time reading T.S. Eliot, Hunter S. Thompson, James Joyce, and Thomas Pynchon to start, especially their letters.  Reading literature will enrich your life and increase the scope of your thoughts and discourse.
Tautologic statement which i dont interpret as intended help but rather as an attempt to imply you are on higher ground. It might be true that english is not my first language, however if your "being better in english" leads to a point where posts consist mainly of insults, i humbly decline (sarcasm or not).

And it is a poor thing that you do not understand what "sarcasm" means.  You are in fact all of those things.  You are a waste of space, air, and being.  As they say, the best part of you ran down the crack of your mother's ass and became a stain on the mattress.
I doubt it being sarcasm improves the quality of a row of random insults.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 08, 2012, 08:14:54 PM
And it is a poor thing that you do not understand what "sarcasm" means.  You are in fact all of those things.  You are a waste of space, air, and being.  As they say, the best part of you ran down the crack of your mother's ass and became a stain on the mattress.
I doubt it being sarcasm improves the quality of a row of random insults.

I beg to disagree... They weren't random at all. They were pretty well targeted, I would say.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Hecate on July 08, 2012, 08:23:03 PM
I beg to disagree... They weren't random at all. They were pretty well targeted, I would say.
I am sorry, let me correct it to
"a row of insults aimed at the other side in a discussion"


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 08, 2012, 09:29:27 PM
I beg to disagree... They weren't random at all. They were pretty well targeted, I would say.
I am sorry, let me correct it to
"a row of insults aimed at the other side in a discussion"
Where else do you normally aim an insult? ???


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 08, 2012, 09:32:13 PM
Okay, now the thread-flooding crew is here. It's just the bet thread. If you're looking for what's limiting user influx, it's called saturation. :P

I'm not even going to tell anyone to give up and default. Your choice, risk it if you wish. Hell if I care whether funds end up with the "early investors" or the great pirate, it's similarly insane.

It might be a problem though that Pirateat40's users don't know he hates them for taunting me, and I have no need to shut up after the bet. I'm not going to make a ruckus on my own, but will respond to attacks just like always, so if they keep doing it, it's his problem for using people who don't know what side they're on. 8)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 08, 2012, 09:36:28 PM
100% certain

Only a fool is 100% certain unless we are talking about death.

A bit late, but still worthy:

https://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/406072_4274962512538_329331175_n.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 08, 2012, 09:36:37 PM
Okay, now the thread-flooding crew is here. It's just the bet thread. If you're looking for what's limiting user influx, it's called saturation. :P
Funny that you mentioned that the "thread flooding crew" had just arrived after my single post. I'll have you know that I am an army of one, and I bring along no sockpuppets to support my positions.

I'm not even going to tell you to give up and default. Your choice, risk it if you wish. Hell if I care whether funds end up with the "early investors" or the great pirate, it's similarly insane. In one case, I get the funky show for a while longer.

It might be a problem though that your users don't know you hate them for taunting me, and I have no need to shut up after the bet. I'm not going to make a ruckus on my own, but will respond to attacks just like always, so if they keep doing it, it's your problem for using people who don't know what side they're on. 8)

Great!... except I think you have said that before and promptly forgotten about it. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 08, 2012, 09:43:55 PM
Okay, now the thread-flooding crew is here. It's just the bet thread. If you're looking for what's limiting user influx, it's called saturation. :P

I'm not even going to tell anyone to give up and default. Your choice, risk it if you wish. Hell if I care whether funds end up with the "early investors" or the great pirate, it's similarly insane.

It might be a problem though that Pirateat40's users don't know he hates them for taunting me, and I have no need to shut up after the bet. I'm not going to make a ruckus on my own, but will respond to attacks just like always, so if they keep doing it, it's his problem for using people who don't know what side they're on. 8)

Pirate never promised us any love, just 7%. Let him hate on us.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 08, 2012, 10:00:39 PM
rjk: actually I didn't think about you, the post just came in while I was typing mine. You... just post a lot, that's not the same as flooding at all. The problem is when the discussion loses structure, and it's more of an output war.

reeses... I dunno man. I was talking to Pirate or allies of his, about the saturation curve of deposits. You're interpreting strange things into my posts. Yes, I have the intention that if I turn out wrong, I will admit it and apologize. It must become clear soon enough; if it is a Ponzi, it probably won't saturate for long, won't shutdown orderly and finally, won't shrink much and won't run forever. If you just had some patience you could laugh at me after the fact -- in whatever future you are imagining.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 08, 2012, 10:30:23 PM
What are we even talking about by now? ???

And reeses, you're kind of creeping me out. Please save us the... uh... ways to clean your fundament. :-\ And no, I'm not lying, I'd have to knowingly do that.

Okay, I admit defeat. This thread has been successfully derailed. rjk is right, I'm only repeating myself anyway.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 08, 2012, 10:34:57 PM
What are we even talking about by now? ???

And reeses, you're kind of creeping me out. Please save us the... uh... ways to clean your fundament. :-\ And no, I'm not lying, I'd have to knowingly do that.

Okay, I admit defeat. This thread has been successfully derailed. rjk is right, I'm only repeating myself anyway.

You didn't even start this thread, you just hijacked it with your bet. If anyone is guilty of derailing anything, that would be you...


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 08, 2012, 10:38:12 PM
You didn't even start this thread, you just hijacked it with your bet. If anyone is guilty of derailing anything, that would be you...

That's true. ;D I offered to split though, and nobody cared.

But native languages, drinks and ways to wipe your ass is a level up from that. And now it's become a meta-discussion... lol I can't fight this.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 08, 2012, 10:42:21 PM
lol I can't fight this.

Too bad you only realised that after putting 5000 BTC on the line.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Hecate on July 08, 2012, 10:50:48 PM
Too bad you only realised that after putting 5000 BTC on the line.
I think he was talking about people flaming around happily and doubt it changes the outcome of the bet. Surely massive amounts of people believing in pirateat40 has an effect, but as long as you dont find exponentially more people to join your voyage into oblivion then the scheme will still die soon.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 08, 2012, 10:55:45 PM
Too bad you only realised that after putting 5000 BTC on the line.
I think he was talking about people flaming around happily and doubt it changes the outcome of the bet. Surely massive amounts of people believing in pirateat40 has an effect, but as long as you dont find exponentially more people to join your voyage into oblivion then the scheme will still die soon.

Who the hell is trying to get more people to join "our voyage into oblivion"?

You and the other Russian dude did more of that than any of Pirate's current investors.

(OK, I will give that to you: those PPT bonds should've never existed)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Jan on July 09, 2012, 12:55:12 AM
Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 09, 2012, 12:58:23 AM
Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.

Anyone mind if I change the thread name to the "Let's insult each other"?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: novusordo on July 09, 2012, 03:11:07 AM
Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.

Anyone mind if I change the thread name to the "Let's insult each other"?

I propose an entirely new thread dedicated to insulting each other.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Jouke on July 09, 2012, 09:30:00 AM

It still is a Ponzi. Edit: did you guys notice the switch to final accretion mode leaking? :) It's a subtle post, and it's not by Mr. P.
No?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Hecate on July 09, 2012, 03:18:33 PM
Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.
I dont remember directly insulting anyone. I might have done some implications but the straight forward cursing and swearing came from the other side.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 09, 2012, 03:51:38 PM

It still is a Ponzi. Edit: did you guys notice the switch to final accretion mode leaking? :) It's a subtle post, and it's not by Mr. P.
No?

Apparently, there are no forced withdrawals for the new trust accounts. This probably means the cap on growth is off. I don't think that the non-trust accounts will play a big role, and really, I haven't heard about a lot of forced withdrawals with the old accounts anyway. Even before the flamewar, it rarely happened anymore. Maybe one here and there for the show, but nothing that tries to simulate big players' transactions coming and going -- you'd need them well in the five-digits to make a difference. The need for coins is growing faster and faster, and should soon be unlimited for all practical purposes.

You can't scale a high yield Ponzi down, at least not for long. The "No limits, same yields" approach is a sign of saturation. Shutdown time is normally around the time where recent average in- and outflow have been equal for a bit: the point of maximum deposits. That is assuming is behaves like a modern, and not the original Ponzi, which continued until it actually ran out of money. The latter would be strange, since Pirateat40 would not profit from it.

The primary hype was more than one month ago, and apart from the "is it a Ponzi" topic, there hasn't been much of a follow-up. With the chilling effects of last week, it's expected that the scheme is now slowly getting hungry, and this is what we observe.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on July 09, 2012, 04:36:32 PM
[...]
With the chilling effects of last week [...]

By chilling effects you mean the fueling?  ;)

The fight got BS&T so much publicity that I would not be astonished had it seen an increase in requests. P, any say on this? More, less or equal number of requests/capital?



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 09, 2012, 05:09:53 PM
[...]
With the chilling effects of last week [...]

By chilling effects you mean the fueling?  ;)

The fight got BS&T so much publicity that I would not be astonished had it seen an increase in requests. P, any say on this? More, less or equal number of requests/capital?

Mh... I don't know about after the bet, but there were a few indications of withdrawals during the week. Some people directly said it (some PMed me and thanked me for speaking my mind), and Pirateat40 seemed to complain about it at one point. It's probably the reason he took the bet. (If he's legit or running much longer, the bet is a loss for him, because I could hedge against BS&T itself and win in all cases.)

In addition, his erratic post about showing up before DefCon popped up just when things had heated up. The rate changes themselves came after I'd been pushy on IRC. It's quite a bit for "just a coincidence," more likely all the timings are controlled by deposit-withdrawal statistics, and the forum show is important. The Currin Trading story is supporting this suspicion, the operator there was very intent on keeping the climate positive.

Edit: Don't forget that, at the same relative size, withdrawals weigh more than deposits! This is one of the counter-intuitive implications of printing money.



Do not ask Pirateat40 about statistics, that is pointless. The real growth curve would clearly show what is going on, complete with absurdly large BTC accounts in it; if ever, you only get to see that in the end. Remember that Carlo Ponzi himself was serving drinks to his customers while they were lining up in panic to cause his default. He seemed unfazed until the very end. You will not notice it easily when such people make things up.


I think he went up over four percent in one day not to long ago.

Interesting! Where did you get that data? Are we talking about last week here?

On a side note, how come this information did not make you suspicious? These funds, in theory, come with quite the obligation.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 09, 2012, 05:47:43 PM
By chilling effects you mean the fueling?  ;)

The fight got BS&T so much publicity that I would not be astonished had it seen an increase in requests. P, any say on this? More, less or equal number of requests/capital?

Just to give a ballpark idea, since this thread started (July 4th) my net change in storage is +9.96%. 

...but there were a few indications of withdrawals during the week. Some people directly said it, and Pirateat40 seemed to complain about it at one point.

First off, did you dream up this information? I confirm there were withdraws since this all started, but... there's always withdraws going on, is that the grain of truth that you used to fabricated this story from?

...but there were a few indications of withdrawals during the week. Some people directly said it, and Pirateat40 seemed to complain about it at one point.

Second, this is a lie.  You show me someone that said I complained about anything... EVER

It's probably the reason he took the bet. (If he's legit or running much longer, the bet is a loss for him, because I could hedge against BS&T itself and win in all cases.)

This bet was not designed to exalt confidence for my lenders, it was my first attempt at seeking out my most vocal critic and making them pay for each comment they post.

Yea, you hedge that bet. It's no loss to me, but you better start now. ;)



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: drrussellshane on July 09, 2012, 05:56:15 PM
Was on IRC, and yeah I was told why he was able to take more funds (what he called risk).

My money is still with pirate. I do not see how anything has changed over the last 9 months other than the trolls are now 50% of the volume posting.

Honest I am much more worried about Gox going down than Pirate.

trolls 51% attack?!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jamesg on July 09, 2012, 06:25:34 PM
Second, this is a lie.  You show me someone that said I complained about anything... EVER

pirateat40 is one of the most levelheaded individuals on the forums. He deals with more requests and FUD than probably anyone else, and he does it with class.

Others, including myself, should only hope they can live up to such a standard.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 09, 2012, 06:56:46 PM
Just to give a ballpark idea, since this thread started (July 4th) my net change in storage is +9.96%.  

Heh. Assuming you are talking to me and not including the 7% you printed, then it was indeed your win. This corresponds to 14% weekly user growth, twice the limit! If this is true, it's impressive. Too bad that I still don't believe a word you say -- it might be all made up. If it's true, consider this post a compliment on your skill.



...but there were a few indications of withdrawals during the week. Some people directly said it, and Pirateat40 seemed to complain about it at one point.

Second, this is a lie.  You show me someone that said I complained about anything... EVER

Admittedly "complaining" was the wrong word.

(...)
Stop promoting HYIP scams on the bicoin forums. Go back to LR HYIP forums, or do it on bitcoinhyipforum dot com.

If they do it here, I will exercise my equivalent right (granted by the mods) to "bother" such promoters.

You're doing a great job.  Where did all my coins go?



Can't tell about the others, but I'm really not trying too hard since the bet. It did cost some time and nerves to keep it up.

It seems difficult to figure out your stance right now, so curiosity has me poke here and there. What I wonder about: why respond to the discussion of fund inflow, and post numbers? Are there by any chance investors who know it's a Ponzi and need to be reassured that they aren't running late? Or are you showing off numbers to me so I see the bet was a success? (I doubt you give a parrot's feather about me.) That number should look quite dangerous to the legitimate scenario. It shows the user growth easily suffices for a Ponzi operation, even though we should have just had a "bad" phase.


This bet was not designed to exalt confidence for my lenders, it was my first attempt at seeking out my most vocal critic and making them pay for each comment they post.

Yea, you hedge that bet. It's no loss to me, but you better start now. ;)

 ;)

 ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: farfiman on July 09, 2012, 07:01:35 PM
Reading Vandroiy's lengthy replies is starting to get a bit tedious..it used to be fun....
but I guess for 5000 coins he can write what he wishes.... more than other trolls opinionated people


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 09, 2012, 07:10:50 PM
Reading Vandroiy's lengthy replies is starting to get a bit tedious..it used to be fun....
but I guess for 5000 coins he can write what he wishes.... more than other trolls opinionated people

It's because the posts are no longer directed to believers as the target audience.

I wouldn't mind if this thread just becomes some sort of Ponzi-believer-asylum where we speculate while using the assumption it is one. The bet result will be known eventually, so it's not that important to fight about it beforehand. But it is still interesting to me what Pirateat40 is doing, and how he plays this toward the end.

Isn't this what the BS&T fans always wanted, us going to our own thread? Just be happy while it lasts. :P


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 09, 2012, 07:23:27 PM

Can't tell about the others, but I'm really not trying too hard since the bet. It did cost some time and nerves to keep it up.

It seems difficult to figure out your stance right now, so curiosity has me poke here and there. What I wonder about: why respond to the discussion of fund inflow, and post numbers? Are there by any chance investors who know it's a Ponzi and need to be reassured that they aren't late? Or are you showing off numbers to me so I see the bet was a success? That number should look quite dangerous to the legitimate scenario. It shows the user growth easily suffices for a Ponzi operation, even though we should have just had a "bad" phase.


Point - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lYBVi3ALWA

Point - The question was not asked by you nor was the answer intended to wind your clock.  I've never had a problem answering questions that are direct and non intrusive.  An inquiring mind asked and I responded.

Point - Yes yes, everything I write is for you and has an alternate meaning.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: copumpkin on July 09, 2012, 07:55:32 PM

Can't tell about the others, but I'm really not trying too hard since the bet. It did cost some time and nerves to keep it up.

It seems difficult to figure out your stance right now, so curiosity has me poke here and there. What I wonder about: why respond to the discussion of fund inflow, and post numbers? Are there by any chance investors who know it's a Ponzi and need to be reassured that they aren't late? Or are you showing off numbers to me so I see the bet was a success? That number should look quite dangerous to the legitimate scenario. It shows the user growth easily suffices for a Ponzi operation, even though we should have just had a "bad" phase.


Point - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lYBVi3ALWA

Point - The question was not asked by you nor was the answer intended to wind your clock.  I've never had a problem answering questions that are direct and non intrusive.  An inquiring mind asked and I responded.

Point - Yes yes, everything I write is for you and has an alternate meaning.

Well, now at least we have a better idea of where the pirate island is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_colors_of_national_flags#Red.2C_green_and_yellow

Given the order of the colors, I'm going to guess Bolivia or Guinea, but since Bolivia is landlocked, it's gotta be off the coast of Guinea. That means that the island is most likely part of the Cape Verde archipelago.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 09, 2012, 07:56:41 PM
Well, now at least we have a better idea of where the pirate island is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_colors_of_national_flags#Red.2C_green_and_yellow
My money's on Grenada.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 09, 2012, 08:00:12 PM
Well, now at least we have a better idea of where the pirate island is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_colors_of_national_flags#Red.2C_green_and_yellow
My money's on Grenada.

You should put your money on Pirate. Grenada doesn't even pay 0.005%/week


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 09, 2012, 08:02:43 PM
Well, now at least we have a better idea of where the pirate island is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_colors_of_national_flags#Red.2C_green_and_yellow
My money's on Grenada.

You should put your money on Pirate. Grenada doesn't even pay 0.005%/week
<grenada>
<hype><shill>
That's all you know! Interesting developments soon!
</hype></shill>
</grenada>


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 09, 2012, 08:21:29 PM
Don't worry about the alternate meanings. People don't ever believe it, and who reads all of the text anyway? Plus, you can always claim to be sarcastic. And it's cool. I mean, pirate? BS &T? What loss of earnings is ever worth your style bonus?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 09, 2012, 08:29:08 PM
BS &T?

The name was in fact suggested by the users and not pirate.
I really don't know why I'm telling you this. It's so much better to just leave you oblivious and laugh at your nonsense.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: copumpkin on July 09, 2012, 08:29:24 PM
Well, now at least we have a better idea of where the pirate island is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_colors_of_national_flags#Red.2C_green_and_yellow

Given the order of the colors, I'm going to guess Bolivia or Guinea, but since Bolivia is landlocked, it's gotta be off the coast of Guinea. That means that the island is most likely part of the Cape Verde archipelago.

http://snapplr.com/ka9z.png

Conspicuous cloud cover, as is often used to obscure intelligence and military installations.  Pablo Escobandodo himself used the same mechanism thanks to his contacts supporting him from the NSA, CIA, and NRA.

Good work tracking him down. This is typical Ponzi behavior. After evidence like this, he'd be a fool to keep denying it! If you look closely at and enhance the pixels, you can even see that it says "Ponzi Island" on one of the beaches.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 09, 2012, 08:34:40 PM
Well, now at least we have a better idea of where the pirate island is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_colors_of_national_flags#Red.2C_green_and_yellow
My money's on Grenada.

You should put your money on Pirate. Grenada doesn't even pay 0.005%/week
<grenada>
<hype><shill>
That's all you know! Interesting developments soon!
</hype></shill>
</grenada>

Thanks for that, it'll be 10 btc please. Address in my sig.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 09, 2012, 08:36:29 PM
Don't worry about the alternate meanings. People don't ever believe it, and who reads all of the text anyway? Plus, you can always claim to be sarcastic. And it's cool. I mean, pirate? BS &T? What loss of earnings is ever worth your style bonus?

Yeah, I suggested the first name actually: "First Pirate Savings and Trust" So while you might think it some cruel way for pirate to tease people, he was the one that decided he needed something more tasteful after using my fun idea for a while.

There's nothing quite like showing up to a party late and having all the details wrong about what happened before you got there.   A little less talk would do you well.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 09, 2012, 08:37:45 PM
Well, now at least we have a better idea of where the pirate island is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_colors_of_national_flags#Red.2C_green_and_yellow
My money's on Grenada.

You should put your money on Pirate. Grenada doesn't even pay 0.005%/week
<grenada>
<hype><shill>
That's all you know! Interesting developments soon!
</hype></shill>
</grenada>

Thanks for that, it'll be 10 btc please. Address in my sig.
Your argument is invalid, I never said "coming" soon.

Also, I'll pay you out of the profits. That's it!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 09, 2012, 08:39:07 PM
Your argument is invalid, I never said "coming" soon.

Also, I'll pay you out of the profits. That's it!

I forgot there's no coming with you.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 09, 2012, 08:50:09 PM
BS &T?

The name was in fact suggested by the users and not pirate.
I really don't know why I'm telling you this. It's so much better to just leave you oblivious and laugh at your nonsense.

Okay, I believe you I'm wrong on that. One style point removed. Meh. It would have made a much cooler story if it had been his idea. But the mybitcoin quote makes up for a lot, so no worries. ;D

Edit: holy shit, five posts because I was afk while typing this? I can't believe how happy people are to point out a mistake of mine! I should make them more often, it increases the mood! :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 09, 2012, 09:00:20 PM
I was afk while typing this

I can't believe how happy people are to point out a mistake of mine!

Yup.  ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 09, 2012, 09:02:57 PM
I was afk while typing this

I can't believe how happy people are to point out a mistake of mine!

Yup.  ;D

I'm starting to see a pattern there. hmm...


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 09, 2012, 09:08:01 PM
To explain this anomaly, let us begin with introducing Dirac notation so I can be in a state |typing> ... okok I just got the "new post" warning after I tabbed out. :-[

We need another re-railing post. Groundbreaking theories on BS&T, anyone?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: copumpkin on July 09, 2012, 09:30:01 PM
To explain this anomaly, let us begin with introducing Dirac notation so I can be in a state |typing> ... okok I just got the "new post" warning after I tabbed out. :-[

We need another re-railing post. Groundbreaking theories on BS&T, anyone?

We found his island and it contained conclusive proof of his Ponziness. You might as well just get the money from nanotube right now.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 09, 2012, 09:41:13 PM
To explain this anomaly, let us begin with introducing Dirac notation so I can be in a state |typing> ... okok I just got the "new post" warning after I tabbed out. :-[

We need another re-railing post. Groundbreaking theories on BS&T, anyone?

We found his island and it contained conclusive proof of his Ponziness. You might as well just get the money from nanotube right now.

Unless of course nanotube IS pirate.  You'll note a shocking lack of pictures of nanotube on the internet.  I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even exist as we know him, instead a sock puppet, even satoshi himself.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 09, 2012, 09:50:53 PM
To explain this anomaly, let us begin with introducing Dirac notation so I can be in a state |typing> ... okok I just got the "new post" warning after I tabbed out. :-[

We need another re-railing post. Groundbreaking theories on BS&T, anyone?

We found his island and it contained conclusive proof of his Ponziness. You might as well just get the money from nanotube right now.

Unless of course nanotube IS pirate.  You'll note a shocking lack of pictures of nanotube on the internet.  I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even exist as we know him, instead a sock puppet, even satoshi himself.

Google disagrees with you...
http://www.google.com/search?num=10&hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&q="nanotube" (http://www.google.com/search?num=10&hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&q="nanotube")


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 09, 2012, 10:16:34 PM
BS &T?

The name was in fact suggested by the users and not pirate.
I really don't know why I'm telling you this. It's so much better to just leave you oblivious and laugh at your nonsense.

Facts don't matter.  It's truthiness that matters.  Truthiness comes from the gut.

There are no facts of pirate generating returns. I will concede that his bitcoinica screenshot, if legit, is some evidence of a profitable trade (though not of "market arbitrage" or "local loans"). Other than that timely release, everything else looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck. Don't be surprised when its a duck.

That price is going higher increases probability if default. Think about it, if price were decreasing there would be more incentive to stay deposited.

With price going up, people's original deposit is increasing in value. Now their principal is worth more than what they intended to risk at the time, to say nothing of their gains. Lenders are certainly growing uneasy, the smart ones don't want to be last-out-the-door bag-holders (eg MageD). And at 7% weekly, it will take very few lender withdrawals of gains and principal before there's nothing left. Not even counting what pirate intends to keep for himself!

Very few of you will be first out.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 09, 2012, 10:42:47 PM
FUD FUD FUD LIP SERVICE FUD

Got any proof besides the same old bs already spewed out?  Price has been appreciating for the last 6 months.  People were lending as price went down and people have been lending has price as gone back up.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 09, 2012, 11:10:05 PM
FUD FUD FUD LIP SERVICE FUD

Got any proof besides the same old bs already spewed out?  Price has been appreciating for the last 6 months.  People were lending as price went down and people have been lending as price as gone up.

Obviously the proof rests with pirate and pirate only, or it wouldn't be a working scam-in-progress. Since the last high of $7.2 price has been decreasing or going sideways, except for the previous month. But more important, are those 6 months or 24 weeks of 7% weekly compounding gains, over 500%!

And you, got any proof that your 500% actually exists? You can withdraw and be relieved that *yours* exists. But don't think that because pirate has a rating on #bitcoin-otc that there will be enough for everybody!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nimda on July 09, 2012, 11:29:33 PM
Or the part where many people don't compound...


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 09, 2012, 11:39:56 PM
Or the part where many people don't compound...

the largest investors aren't compounding.  We'd have hit the wall already if it were really a ponzi.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 10, 2012, 12:11:55 AM
Or the part where many people don't compound...

the largest investors aren't compounding.  We'd have hit the wall already if it were really a ponzi.

The wall isn't hit until the withdraws start. If the biggest investors aren't compounding, that means there's even less in there since they've been continually pulling their interest. Now its just about who's the first to pull their principal.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 10, 2012, 12:32:06 AM
Or the part where many people don't compound...

the largest investors aren't compounding.  We'd have hit the wall already if it were really a ponzi.

The wall isn't hit until the withdraws start. If the biggest investors aren't compounding, that means there's even less in there since they've been continually pulling their interest. Now its just about who's the first to pull their principal.

No derp.  Let me explain it for you.. the largest accounts are taking interest payments, which means the little accounts would have to be depositing like crazy in order to pay for the large accounts.  If the little accounts are depositing like crazy, they aren't going to be the little accounts anymore, which means they really AREN'T depositing enough which means pirate is finding the funds elsewhere... like profits, not ponzi.  You idiots think the 7%ers are blind, but damn, you guys are failing basic logic now.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 10, 2012, 12:37:35 AM
hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 10, 2012, 01:15:18 AM
No derp.  Let me explain it for you.. the largest accounts are taking interest payments, which means the little accounts would have to be depositing like crazy in order to pay for the large accounts.  If the little accounts are depositing like crazy, they aren't going to be the little accounts anymore, which means they really AREN'T depositing enough which means pirate is finding the funds elsewhere... like profits, not ponzi.  You idiots think the 7%ers are blind, but damn, you guys are failing basic logic now.

Or pirate is making those interest payments with investor principal both large and small (as I originally said, not enough principal to go around now). If you allow for that possibility, then you can't derive your proof by contradiction ("if little accounts are depositing like crazy, they aren't little accounts. therefore, pirate is generating real profits. ergo sum").

So, therefore, he's been using investor principal to pay large lenders' interest. As long as new deposits come in faster than the interest payments, then the total funds grow and it makes sense for the operator to continue paying interest. When new deposits stop coming, an operator who wants to maximize his personal profit will stop paying interest and you get default.

The lenders doing pass-through have an edge on the timing since they have access to more information. They should withdraw if they see their own deposits slowing.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: FredericBastiat on July 10, 2012, 01:28:09 AM
Perhaps a suggestion to Pirate --just to shut the critics up:

Very simply, why not just return all the principal and interest to all of your clientele? It's likely that all the investors you have now will reinvest and/or return to you even after the interim closure. It might temporarily disrupt your business for a few days, but it's probably nothing you couldn't cure over the short term with your profits.

I'm not sure how this could be proven without full disclosure from all of the participants, and it does expose some of the privacy from each of the account holders, but I'm sure it could be arranged with nanotube for him to make the final determination. Additionally, it shouldn't be considered a trick either, since if it were a true Ponzi, the interest and principal could not be returned, thus incurring a default. The only other possibility is Pirate's deep pockets and infinite altruism.

All things being equal, I think it would be a hassle, but it would make for some really interesting newsworthiness. Events such as these could very well prove that the less the regulatory friction, the better returns on the average, are available to market participants. I hate the cost of overhead...

Personally, I don't care whether or not it's a Ponzi, I like the game. It is what it is. I can live with that.

EDIT: Scratch that. I just remembered that Mt.Gox limits outflows. That would suck for me until I became qualified. I guess I better get on that, eh?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Jan on July 10, 2012, 02:57:06 AM
To put things into perspective, the Danish currency is pretty popular in these financial crisis times, so to keep the Danish Kroner at the same exchange rate towards the Euro they have lowered the interest rate to -0.2% (yes, thats negative interest rate). Banks are still investing as they consider this a safer place to invest than many alternatives out there.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKL6E8I5A8520120705?irpc=932

For some reason BS&T can give you 3000+%, maybe I should contact some Danish bankers and thell them that there are alternatives  ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 10, 2012, 03:16:26 AM
They should withdraw if they see their own deposits slowing.

See, now you're making assumptions.  You're telling people what to do as if it were a ponzi but you've not actually established it is one. 

There really is no reasoning with you because you flat out see it as a ponzi because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises, even though they may/may not by faulty:

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
  • No business would borrow at 7% a week over the course of the long term.
  • No business would continue to borrow at 7% over the course of the long term, instead opting to use their own funds/profits.
  • Pirate has an insatiable appetite for more coins.
  • Pirate won't reveal his day to day business operations.


Have I missed something?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Jan on July 10, 2012, 04:00:15 AM
Sorry, I didn't get much sense out of your reply.
Anyway, I don't know where you live, but visiting Denmark on the way to Dubai is for most people not exactly on the route.
(BTW: Denmark is not exactly a continent.)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Jan on July 10, 2012, 04:15:49 AM
Sorry, I didn't get much sense out of your reply.
Anyway, I don't know where you live, but visiting Denmark on the way to Dubai is for most people not exactly on the route.
(BTW: Denmark is not exactly a continent.)

I live in San Francisco, on the western coast of the USA.  København is "on the way" to Dubai and India if you have to hit all three in a week. ;>

And as I understand it, the Euro is a currency that covers more than Denmark.

I apologize for being confusing.

Ahh... I am closer to you than you think. Mountain View is just south of SF  ;)
We do not have the Euro in Denmark, but we are part of the EU. Slightly confusing. The Danish currency has however been locked to the Euro for years, and before that to the German Mark. So we have all the trouble of not having the Euro, while none of the benefits.
OK, back on topic.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 10, 2012, 04:22:49 AM
Ahh... I am closer to you than you think. Mountain View is just south of SF  ;)
We do not have the Euro in Denmark, but we are part of the EU. Slightly confusing. The Danish currency has however been locked to the Euro for years, and before that to the German Mark. So we have all the trouble of not having the Euro, while none of the benefits.
OK, back on topic.

Having the Euro is a benefit?   ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 10, 2012, 04:40:50 AM
They should withdraw if they see their own deposits slowing.

See, now you're making assumptions.  You're telling people what to do as if it were a ponzi but you've not actually established it is one. 

There really is no reasoning with you because you flat out see it as a ponzi because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises, even though they may/may not by faulty:

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
  • No business would borrow at 7% a week over the course of the long term.
  • No business would continue to borrow at 7% over the course of the long term, instead opting to use their own funds/profits.
  • Pirate has an insatiable appetite for more coins.
  • Pirate won't reveal his day to day business operations.


Have I missed something?

That's a pretty comprehensive list, I think you covered all the bases.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mrb on July 10, 2012, 05:08:33 AM
The wall isn't hit until the withdraws start. If the biggest investors aren't compounding, that means there's even less in there since they've been continually pulling their interest. Now its just about who's the first to pull their principal.
No derp.  Let me explain it for you.. the largest accounts are taking interest payments, which means the little accounts would have to be depositing like crazy in order to pay for the large accounts.  If the little accounts are depositing like crazy, they aren't going to be the little accounts anymore, which means they really AREN'T depositing enough which means pirate is finding the funds elsewhere... like profits, not ponzi.  You idiots think the 7%ers are blind, but damn, you guys are failing basic logic now.

Or, the most likely explanation, is that the rate of creation of new accounts is increasing over time at a rate sufficient to cover interest payments (like most Ponzi schemes, until they collapse).

But debating all this is pointless, as pirateat40 divulges no information whatsoever. He does not even publish basic financial information, such as the total amount invested in BTCS&T, or deposits/withdrawals per week, which he could do without revealing his "secret business plan" (but he can't because revealing his books would expose the fraud...)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mrb on July 10, 2012, 05:21:54 AM
reeses, honest question: if I tell you I have a business plan that I want to keep secret, but that I am a trusted forum member since Dec 2010 and have a good rating on btc-otc (both true), and that my business will return 7% per week, would you invest in me? If not, why?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 10, 2012, 05:32:10 AM

But debating all this is pointless, as pirateat40 divulges no information whatsoever.

False.


Just to give a ballpark idea, since this thread started (July 4th) my net change in storage is +9.96%. 



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 10, 2012, 05:33:04 AM
There really is no reasoning with you because you flat out see it as a ponzi because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises, even though they may/may not by faulty:

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
  • No business would borrow at 7% a week over the course of the long term.
  • No business would continue to borrow at 7% over the course of the long term, instead opting to use their own funds/profits.
  • Pirate has an insatiable appetite for more coins.
  • Pirate won't reveal his day to day business operations.


Have I missed something?

That's a pretty comprehensive list, I think you covered all the bases.

Ok, now that we established the reasons you think its a ponzi, it is much simpler to talk about.  Saying 'ponzi ponzi ponzi' doesn't make it one and its hard to rebut.


Now please explain how those items make pirate a ponzi. Don't pull in other stuff, use those items.  You said it was a comprehensive list.

Right off the bat, I see items 1,2, and 5 as being patently false and not ponzi behavior, which leaves only 3 and 4, both of which need citation/documentation.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 10, 2012, 05:53:57 AM
hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.

Why should he hedge a bet that he'll win anyway?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 10, 2012, 06:02:31 AM
Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.

Anyone mind if I change the thread name to the "Let's insult each other"?

I propose an entirely new thread dedicated to insulting each other.

Done. Please move insulting posts to:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=92501.msg1020413#msg1020413



Title: Ponzi's End
Post by: hgmichna on July 10, 2012, 06:43:07 AM
Charles Ponzi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme), in 1920, was in a different situation, compared to an anonymous bitcoin environment. He ran his scheme to the very end, went bankrupt and into jail, because he could not run away and disappear. He served drinks to his "customers", who were staging a bank run and gathering at his door, just to extend his time of fame by one more minute.

But now let's look at the personality of a (still hypothetical) Ponzi scheme operator. (I'll call him "he" for simplicity.)

We know some of his personality traits pretty well. He lacks law abidingness. He is extremely greedy. He must be an excellent liar. He must be thoroughly anti-social. He must be somewhat intelligent. (If he were highly intelligent, he probably would not have to resort to crime to make a good living.) In short, he is a low-life form you don't really want to share the same planet with.

Now let us look at how a Ponzi scheme ends. At first thought, one would think that it ends when interest exceeds new deposits, but it is not so. In fact, forget about interest. Think about the actual heap of money the Ponzi scheme operator has collected.

He will continue running the scheme as long as that heap grows. But, of course, growth will sooner or later stagnate and make way for some random sequence of growth and shrink phases, as "investors" withdraw some or all of their gain.

That is the time when an intelligent Ponzi operator will shut down and run with the money. However, greed may get in his way. He will hope to rake in a million of dollars, if he could just bridge this problem period and convince more newcomers to part with their money.

He will do anything to make that happen. He will keep promising totally unsustainable yields, he will accept any new "investment", no matter what, he will try various kinds of publicity stunts, even bets he is sure to lose.

However, at some point even the stupidest "investor" will realize that, assuming that at some time a Ponzi scheme amassed, say, BTC100,000, at 7% per week there would be BTC10million just 1.3 years later. BTC10m? Where would these  come from?

So sooner or later the "investors" will attempt to withdraw. Some will do that anyway, because they want to buy a new car or a new house. The early "investors" should have amassed a neat stash after a couple of months, many times more than their original "investment", so the tendency to withdraw grows by the day.

Needless to say, the amount of money actually available in a Ponzi scheme is tiny, compared with the amount the scheme owes, so even a trickle of payouts will quickly make its operator very nervous.

Sooner, rather than later, the Ponzi scheme operator will realize that the millions of dollars he hoped to rake in are unattainable, and he'd better be content with what he has, so he will disappear. Perhaps he will make some moves before that, designed to stall and confuse the "investors". He might state that he sold or gave away his business, he might pretend he got sick or died, he might do confusing deals with sub-contractors, he might invent maneuvers I cannot even think of. But ultimately he will cease to pay up, and that will be the end.

Now let's look at the currently ongoing Ponzi scheme. After the discussion here, new "investors", even the most gullible ones, may have become a bit weary, so we may currently experience a phase of stalling new "investments". Whether this is enough to let the bubble burst, remains to be seen. In the most Ponzi-favorable circumstances, i.e. no big withdrawals and a very optimistic (or greedy, to be more precise) Ponzi operator, willing to risk much of his accumulated stash, the scheme may weather this storm and carry on, but how long would it take for the less optimistic "investors" to run for safety and withdraw? After all, they could withdraw their money, wait for just a month or two, and if the "business", against all odds, survives, come back and "reinvest". At least some people believe that only the first very few withdrawers will actually see their money, so a withdrawal now would be the safest path to riches. My personal guess is weeks or a few months. A year should be out of the question because there aren't enough bitcoins in existence to make it believable, even for the mathematically challenged.

And don't think that he could just lower the interest rate. If he did, more people would withdraw their money. It's a one-way road, and not a long one.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mrb on July 10, 2012, 06:51:07 AM
 
I would consider it. You didn't reveal the "secret" of your miner until others discovered the same leverage, did you?
Edit: From https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2949.msg40902#msg40902 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2949.msg40902#msg40902) I note you claimed a 6.3% advantage for owners of 69xx cards, with minimal disclosure, for 250BTC.  At least you said GPUs were involved.  ;)

Correct.

Now, back to my thought experiment: it is interesting because, as a matter of fact, it is more than merely a thought experiment. I do run at least 3 Bitcoin ventures and I would accept capital to fund their expansion. I can talk about 2 of them. My first venture is a 24Ghash/s FPGA farm. My second is the development and sale of a small number of prototype devices to remotely power on and off up to 36 computers, whose price will significantly undercut all commercial offerings by a large margin. Finally, my 3rd venture shall remain undisclosed.

Running some numbers, I am prepared to make the following offer to you (or anybody else who is interested):
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)

reeses: I emailed you a deposit address if you wish to invest. Anybody else who is interested to invest should PM me. I will close this investment opportunity as soon as I deem I have received enough funds.

Thanks!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 10, 2012, 07:03:38 AM
Running some numbers, I am prepared to make the following offer to you (or anybody else who is interested):
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)


If I wasn't aware of who you were  (http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=42) I'd say this has the same level of truthiness as Pirate. No real disclosure, just plans. However, since you're not a mysterious shadow figure, I doubt you'd Ponzi up since you have more to lose than most.

So are you serious or was this a piss-take to see who would blithely wander from one scam to the next without thinking? After which you'd return funds and deal a lesson well earned, I imagine.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 10, 2012, 07:04:11 AM
… because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises …

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.

Have I missed something?

Sure you have missed something. The above point is not an assumption, but a trivial truth (except for the mathematically challenged) in a non-inflating currency like bitcoin.

This discussion needs people with some minimal mathematical ability. It would be better for the few others to shut up and stop advertising their stupidity.

Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). :)

I'll simplify the question to make it easier for you, imsaguy, so you have at least a 50-50 chance of getting it right. Does it take more or less than five years?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: the joint on July 10, 2012, 07:04:42 AM
"It's black!"  "No, it's white"  "No, it's definitely black because of x, y, and z!"  "No, it's definitely white because of x, y, and z!"

Oh really?  Or maybe it's actually...


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 10, 2012, 07:07:00 AM
Perhaps a suggestion to Pirate --just to shut the critics up:

Very simply, why not just return all the principal and interest to all of your clientele? …

It may be easier to convince just one of the bigger "investors" to withdraw. If it's a Ponzi scheme (which it obviously is), that would already burst the bubble.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mrb on July 10, 2012, 07:08:20 AM
Running some numbers, I am prepared to make the following offer to you (or anybody else who is interested):
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)


If I wasn't aware of who you were  (http://blog.zorinaq.com/?e=42) I'd say this has the same level of truthiness as Pirate. No real disclosure, just plans. However, since you're not a mysterious shadow figure, I doubt you'd Ponzi up since you have more to lose than most.

So are you serious or was this a piss-take to see who would blithely wander from one scam to the next without thinking? After which you'd return funds and deal a lesson well earned, I imagine.

I am serious. I will post a formal investment offer in the Securities subforum in a few minutes. Edit: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=92513.0
Pirate may be a fraud (IMO) but he does inspire legitimate entrepreneurs...


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 10, 2012, 07:32:02 AM

Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). :)


239 weeks, 0.1btc -> 1K86jhmEgnXLREKjE5gimH9zvwBVFcQi7t thanks


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 10, 2012, 07:41:52 AM
Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). :)

It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years:

>>> math.log(1e6, 1.07)
204.19430286596887

>>> float(205) / 52
3.9423076923076925


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on July 10, 2012, 07:44:07 AM
what is it with all you critics... why can't you believe only one time?

somebody had to find the holy grail, the perpetuum mobile, the free lunch, the gold of the aztecs.

seeing is believing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KzOu7UxlqU



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 10, 2012, 07:47:40 AM
Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). :)

It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years:

>>> math.log(1e6, 1.07)
204.19430286596887

>>> float(205) / 52
3.9423076923076925


wut?

1 * (1.07^238) = 9 847 797.03
1 * (1.07^239) = 10 537 142.8


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 10, 2012, 07:49:05 AM
Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). :)

It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years:

>>> math.log(1e6, 1.07)
204.19430286596887

>>> float(205) / 52
3.9423076923076925


wut?

1 * (1.07^238) = 9 847 797.03
1 * (1.07^239) = 10 537 142.8

Duh.  Fair enough.

>>> math.log(10e6, 1.07)
238.22668667696368 weeks

>>> float(239) / 52
4.596153846153846 years


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 10, 2012, 08:13:29 AM
hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.

No. I'm clear on my stance, my BS&T exposure is and remains zero.

It's illogical for the same reason you don't play the Ponzi in the first place. No half-assed nonsense on my part.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 10, 2012, 08:24:11 AM
No half-assed nonsense on my part.

No way.  It's full blown nonsense or nothing!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 10, 2012, 11:02:30 AM
No half-assed nonsense on my part.

No way.  It's full blown nonsense or nothing!

You got it! I push this hard so that either I or the supporters have to explain themselves in the end. No evasive maneuvers.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: copumpkin on July 10, 2012, 02:40:13 PM
hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.

No. I'm clear on my stance, my BS&T exposure is and remains zero.

It's illogical for the same reason you don't play the Ponzi in the first place. No half-assed nonsense on my part.

If your certainty about him being a Ponzi is anything less than 100% (and you said it was 98% last time I asked you), it isn't necessarily illogical to hedge. To be really simplistic about it, you think that there's a 1/50 chance you'll lose 5000 btc and and a 49/50 chance you'll get 10000. Simple expected value will value your "bet portfolio" at 9700 btc at maturity, but your one-year 2% value at risk is 0. Both of those could improve, depending on your model of his default probabilities over time, if you were willing to hedge :)



So basically, "DAMMIT THE PONZI IS COLLAPSING AND I NEED YOU TO DEPOSIT YOUR MONEY INTO IT, OTHERWISE I CAN'T GET MINE OUT".


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 10, 2012, 03:00:42 PM
… because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises …

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.

Have I missed something?

Sure you have missed something. The above point is not an assumption, but a trivial truth (except for the mathematically challenged) in a non-inflating currency like bitcoin.

This discussion needs people with some minimal mathematical ability. It would be better for the few others to shut up and stop advertising their stupidity.

Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). :)

I'll simplify the question to make it easier for you, imsaguy, so you have at least a 50-50 chance of getting it right. Does it take more or less than five years?


So while you were all busy getting condescending assuming I don't know math, you were too busy assuming and missed a key fact:  how long has pirate been doing this?


 I won't wait for your answer and instead tell you: less than 1 year.  Now tell me if less than 1 year is considered long term in most businesses. 

(waits)

Great, now that we know pirate isn't considered long term business yet, tell me how likely it is that a business can earn 7% a week in the short term.

You see, the ponzi tinfoil has blinded you.  Pirate never claimed he was going to sustain this for years and years.  As he's slowly reduced the rates, instead of you guys saying "oh, he's bringing his rates in line with a maturing business" you guys are claiming "its the end of the ponzi".  Quite literally, you guys take anything you see and twist it to fit your theory, even if there's a reasonable explanation otherwise.  Go watch X-Files or something, you'll feel better.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 10, 2012, 03:01:48 PM
hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.

No. I'm clear on my stance, my BS&T exposure is and remains zero.

It's illogical for the same reason you don't play the Ponzi in the first place. No half-assed nonsense on my part.

Actually, your exposure is 5k btc.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: unclescrooge on July 10, 2012, 03:18:18 PM
Just to give a ballpark idea, since this thread started (July 4th) my net change in storage is +9.96%. 

Including the profit made, or only the deposit?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 10, 2012, 03:32:20 PM
Just to give a ballpark idea, since this thread started (July 4th) my net change in storage is +9.96%. 

Including the profit made, or only the deposit?

lol good one.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 10, 2012, 04:25:37 PM
There really is no reasoning with you because you flat out see it as a ponzi because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises, even though they may/may not by faulty:

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
  • No business would borrow at 7% a week over the course of the long term.
  • No business would continue to borrow at 7% over the course of the long term, instead opting to use their own funds/profits.
  • Pirate has an insatiable appetite for more coins.
  • Pirate won't reveal his day to day business operations.


Have I missed something?

That's a pretty comprehensive list, I think you covered all the bases.

Ok, now that we established the reasons you think its a ponzi, it is much simpler to talk about.  Saying 'ponzi ponzi ponzi' doesn't make it one and its hard to rebut.


Now please explain how those items make pirate a ponzi. Don't pull in other stuff, use those items.  You said it was a comprehensive list.

Right off the bat, I see items 1,2, and 5 as being patently false and not ponzi behavior, which leaves only 3 and 4, both of which need citation/documentation.

1. "patently false because i can imagine a scenario of 7% profits per week". Why not 10% per week, or 33% per week?
2 & 3. You said it
4. "pirate doesnt always accept new accounts." it makes sense to limit short-term growth, since it increases overall time and therefore overall size.
5. he said it himself. he wont and i dont blame him.

A large percent value for 1 (7%/wk is large) combined with 5 is a ponzi every time. Is there one historical example which turned out to be genuine profits? Because there are countless examples of ponzis. Which makes the claim of non-ponzi an extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary evidence.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: DutchBrat on July 10, 2012, 04:51:16 PM
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com (http://www.wonga.com)

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

Remember, this is an FSA regulated company, seal of approval by the UK government, not some dodgy loanshark around the corner

And believe it or not: they only lend money to people that have a certifiable income....but obviously can't get a loan from a bank or have acces to a credit card...

So now imagine what rate of interest you can charge when you lend to higher risk people without being regulated.....

Just saying....


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 10, 2012, 05:20:08 PM

Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). :)


239 weeks, 0.1btc -> 1K86jhmEgnXLREKjE5gimH9zvwBVFcQi7t thanks

Fair enough. 10 bitcents on the way. 238 would have been a bit closer, so the next person who calculated that may also collect 0.1 BTC. SimBesh? Wallet address? Just for fun. :)

Addendum: Oops, the first calc also came from you. I overlooked that. And as the following message explains, 239 is actually correct under the assumption of whole week steps.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 10, 2012, 05:24:45 PM
Fair enough. 10 bitcents on the way. 238 would have been a bit closer, so the next person who calculated that may also collect 0.1 BTC. SimBesh? Wallet address? Just for fun. :)

The thing is that after 238 weeks you didn't yet earn 10 million BTC, and after 239 weeks you did.  Since interest is paid weekly he rounded up to the next week.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 10, 2012, 05:37:21 PM
If your certainty about him being a Ponzi is anything less than 100% (and you said it was 98% last time I asked you), it isn't necessarily illogical to hedge. To be really simplistic about it, you think that there's a 1/50 chance you'll lose 5000 btc and and a 49/50 chance you'll get 10000. Simple expected value will value your "bet portfolio" at 9700 btc at maturity, but your one-year 2% value at risk is 0. Both of those could improve, depending on your model of his default probabilities over time, if you were willing to hedge :)

I could imagine some other considerations. One is that the time spent to do the hedging might be better spent on something more profitable. Then there is the weird problem that some simple-minded victims might get angry when somebody takes and spends the money they have just been robbed of, without any risk to himself. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 10, 2012, 05:44:19 PM
Fair enough. 10 bitcents on the way. 238 would have been a bit closer …

The thing is that after 238 weeks you didn't yet earn 10 million BTC, and after 239 weeks you did.  Since interest is paid weekly he rounded up to the next week.

Yes, that is correct (with the assumption of whole weeks). Sharp thinking.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 10, 2012, 10:43:03 PM
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com (http://www.wonga.com)

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

A company offering loans is totally different than someone asking for loans. Obviously, their profit is limited by the number of borrowers they can find (it doesn't scale with the amount of capital they have). Which is another sign that pirates a ponzi: there are lots of lenders but no borrowers. If there are no borrowers, nobody is paying the interest..


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on July 10, 2012, 10:54:09 PM
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com (http://www.wonga.com)

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

A company offering loans is totally different than someone asking for loans. Obviously, their profit is limited by the number of borrowers they can find (it doesn't scale with the amount of capital they have). Which is another sign that pirates a ponzi: there are lots of lenders but no borrowers. If there are no borrowers, nobody is paying the interest..

No *visible* borrowers. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 11, 2012, 01:49:07 AM
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com (http://www.wonga.com)

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

A company offering loans is totally different than someone asking for loans. Obviously, their profit is limited by the number of borrowers they can find (it doesn't scale with the amount of capital they have). Which is another sign that pirates a ponzi: there are lots of lenders but no borrowers. If there are no borrowers, nobody is paying the interest..

No *visible* borrowers. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

True, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on July 11, 2012, 02:07:54 AM
No *visible* borrowers. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

True, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

To be fair, I agree. But just because we don't see who he's lending to, doesn't mean they're not there.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mp420 on July 11, 2012, 07:40:49 AM
Maybe he's lending his money to an even bigger ponzi scammer who's paying 8%/week. Which would make his business legit but just as certain to fail.

The only other far-fetched scenario I can think of where his business might be legit is that he's tremendously wealthy (so that he has managed to pay all the interest from his own pocket instead of dipping into the borrowed principal) and he has some inside knowledge about BTC dropping to very close to $0 (below $.01 at least) very soon, so he can eventually pay back all his outstanding debt with no effort (having sold all the bitcoins while they still have value).

To be clear, I do not really think either of these is true. It's a ponzi scheme alright.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: copumpkin on July 11, 2012, 01:20:56 PM
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com (http://www.wonga.com)

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

A company offering loans is totally different than someone asking for loans. Obviously, their profit is limited by the number of borrowers they can find (it doesn't scale with the amount of capital they have). Which is another sign that pirates a ponzi: there are lots of lenders but no borrowers. If there are no borrowers, nobody is paying the interest..

Oh man, who knew that all those companies issuing corporate bonds with no borrowers of their own were Ponzis?? This will be the next major financial scandal of the century! The entire fixed income market (way larger than the equity market!) is the largest Ponzi in history. Madoff should hang his head in shame.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: thezerg on July 11, 2012, 04:06:50 PM
nanotube the 100 BTC fee you are getting is pretty good but you know you can put that 10000 BTC to WORK for you!!! 

I hear someone's offering 7% a week on deposits; guy's name is pira-teat or something --  what DOES that mean anyway, "burning nipples" maybe? 

Over the course of the bet you'd make 1.3 million BTC.  Its a SURE thing!!!

>>> btc = 10000
>>> for i in range(0,18*4): btc=btc*1.07
>>> print btc
1305064.551270706


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 11, 2012, 04:09:59 PM
guy's name is pira-teat or something --  what DOES that mean anyway, "burning nipples" maybe?  
LOL

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Pirate_Looks_at_Forty


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Inaba on July 11, 2012, 04:52:47 PM
I haven't read the whole thread, so forgive me if it's already been brought up... but has anyone considered he's invested in one of the most epic Ponzi's of all time, MMM?  If so, that could explain how he's able to pay what's he paying.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 11, 2012, 04:57:19 PM
I haven't read the whole thread, so forgive me if it's already been brought up... but has anyone considered he's invested in one of the most epic Ponzi's of all time, MMM?  If so, that could explain how he's able to pay what's he paying.


Didn't that one colapsed already? I remember reading something about it going bust.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: vampire on July 11, 2012, 05:17:19 PM
I haven't read the whole thread, so forgive me if it's already been brought up... but has anyone considered he's invested in one of the most epic Ponzi's of all time, MMM?  If so, that could explain how he's able to pay what's he paying.


Didn't that one colapsed already? I remember reading something about it going bust.

MMM? Collapsed a long time ago. I have a share of MMM that my father gifted to me as a memory.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 11, 2012, 05:33:03 PM
MMM? Collapsed a long time ago. I have a share of MMM that my father gifted to me as a memory.

There was a 2011 one. It shut down not too long ago. And guess what: http://mmm2012.com/ (http://mmm2012.com/)

It never gets old. ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 11, 2012, 11:00:50 PM
Oh man, who knew that all those companies issuing corporate bonds with no borrowers of their own were Ponzis?? This will be the next major financial scandal of the century! The entire fixed income market (way larger than the equity market!) is the largest Ponzi in history. Madoff should hang his head in shame.

With a corporate bond, the company itself is the borrower. And all the lenders (bond buyers) know the business of the company selling the bond. Apple might not release schematics and construction details of the iPad, but all their devices being sold in stores is evidence of actual profit generation. That's the extraordinary evidence which everyone can see.

Of course, even with AAA ratings it turned out that all the mortgage-backed-securities was a just a network of ponzi paper (the largest in history). And companies selling shares on stock exchanges much more reputable than GLBSE turn out to be fraudulent. Look at the report on Huabao, China's largest flavor and fagrance company (http://anonanalytics.com/pdf/Huabao.pdf) by Anon Analytics.

Watch some episodes of American Greed, my favorite one is The Rise and Fall of CyberNet (http://www.hulu.com/watch/46546). The guy created fake invoices of big orders from Boeing, IBM, etc. to convince banks that he had their business. When the bankers came for a visit, he gave them a tour of his datacenter of server racks and blinking LEDs. It turned out the boxes were empty! No actual servers, just blinking LEDs. And with that the banks became his lenders.

Most of the other episodes are much more mundane ponzi schemes ripping off far less sophisticated "investors". Fraud is so commonplace among people offering returns that its the rule. Not the exception.

Butterfly Labs took pre-orders and everyone was rightly skeptical. Then they shipped (extraordinary evidence). Same for Bitcoin Magazine. Does BitInstant or Bit-Pay, or MtGox or Bitcoinica or Bitstamp offer returns to investors? [edit: i mean crazy returns to most any investor]. Hell, does Silk Road? No, because those are all businesses actually generating profit.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 11, 2012, 11:36:13 PM

Butterfly Labs took pre-orders and everyone was rightly skeptical. Then they shipped (extraordinary evidence). Same for Bitcoin Magazine. Does BitInstant or Bit-Pay, or MtGox or Bitcoinica or Bitstamp offer returns to investors? [edit: i mean crazy returns to most any investor]. Hell, does Silk Road? No, because those are all businesses actually generating profit.

So when pirate returns everyone's principle and interest, we'll have our extra ordinary evidence. 


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 11, 2012, 11:38:30 PM

Butterfly Labs took pre-orders and everyone was rightly skeptical. Then they shipped (extraordinary evidence). Same for Bitcoin Magazine. Does BitInstant or Bit-Pay, or MtGox or Bitcoinica or Bitstamp offer returns to investors? [edit: i mean crazy returns to most any investor]. Hell, does Silk Road? No, because those are all businesses actually generating profit.

So when pirate returns everyone's principle and interest, we'll have our extra ordinary evidence. 

If then yes, you would.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 11, 2012, 11:41:53 PM

Butterfly Labs took pre-orders and everyone was rightly skeptical. Then they shipped (extraordinary evidence). Same for Bitcoin Magazine. Does BitInstant or Bit-Pay, or MtGox or Bitcoinica or Bitstamp offer returns to investors? [edit: i mean crazy returns to most any investor]. Hell, does Silk Road? No, because those are all businesses actually generating profit.

So when pirate returns everyone's principle and interest, we'll have our extra ordinary evidence.  

If then yes, you would.

Well, If BFL ships ASIC, we can say they are legit.  Until then we get to call them scammers?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 11, 2012, 11:47:10 PM
Well, If BFL ships ASIC, we can say they are legit.  Until then we get to call them scammers?

No, you should claim that pirate is BFL's backer and that pirate's lenders' profits are from BFL's profits.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 11, 2012, 11:48:48 PM
if pirate is running a ponzi, and takes off, wouldn't that torpedo GPUmax, which looks like it could generate serious revenue once he opens it up to the public (exits beta) ?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 11, 2012, 11:50:11 PM
if pirate is running a ponzi, and takes off, wouldn't that torpedo GPUmax, which looks like it could generate serious revenue once he opens it up to the public (exits beta) ?

Ponzi.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 11, 2012, 11:55:12 PM
if pirate is running a ponzi, and takes off, wouldn't that torpedo GPUmax, which looks like it could generate serious revenue once he opens it up to the public (exits beta) ?

Ponzi.

Ah, yes GPUmax is also a ponzi, the 'ol ponzi double down, the 'ol ponzi2


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 12, 2012, 12:02:12 AM
if pirate is running a ponzi, and takes off, wouldn't that torpedo GPUmax, which looks like it could generate serious revenue once he opens it up to the public (exits beta) ?

Ponzi.

Ah, yes GPUmax is also a ponzi, the 'ol ponzi double down, the 'ol ponzi2

Ponzi. Ponzi.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: notme on July 12, 2012, 12:06:48 AM
Ponzi. Ponzi. Ponzi.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 12, 2012, 12:13:54 AM
Ponzi. Ponzi. Ponzi.

http://i.imgur.com/bdb2S.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 12, 2012, 12:54:41 AM
if pirate is running a ponzi, and takes off, wouldn't that torpedo GPUmax, which looks like it could generate serious revenue once he opens it up to the public (exits beta) ?

Okay, this is an honest question: How could GPUmax generate serious revenue?


"shares", or hashes to solve the next block, already have a price, denominated as a fraction of a block of 50BTC. That fraction of a bitcoin already has a price set on MtGox. Who would pay more for your shares than you would get by submitting them to a pool?


Ah, yes GPUmax is also a ponzi, the 'ol ponzi double down, the 'ol ponzi2

blinking LEDs.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 12, 2012, 01:09:02 AM

Okay, this is an honest question: How could GPUmax generate serious revenue?


"shares", or hashes to solve the next block, already have a price, denominated as a fraction of a block of 50BTC. That fraction of a bitcoin already has a price set on MtGox. Who would pay more for your shares than you would get by submitting them to a pool?


Good, question and i don't know the answer,.
but since its beta everything is still free.. what about a monthly subscription fee for the service? or a small % cut from all earnings/transactions?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 12, 2012, 01:22:30 AM
if pirate is running a ponzi, and takes off, wouldn't that torpedo GPUmax, which looks like it could generate serious revenue once he opens it up to the public (exits beta) ?

Okay, this is an honest question: How could GPUmax generate serious revenue?


"shares", or hashes to solve the next block, already have a price, denominated as a fraction of a block of 50BTC. That fraction of a bitcoin already has a price set on MtGox. Who would pay more for your shares than you would get by submitting them to a pool?


Ah, yes GPUmax is also a ponzi, the 'ol ponzi double down, the 'ol ponzi2

blinking LEDs.

Ponzi.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 12, 2012, 01:54:36 AM
Huh. There's a rate of only 0.596 mentions of "ponzi" per post so far (including this one).

Come on guys! Ponzi up a little! (0.602 ponzis per post now).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Hexadecibel on July 12, 2012, 04:09:04 AM
That thing pirate does is most likely a ponzi.

But on the other hand, if he owns gpumax.com and that too was a ponzi, you would think that they would have gone through the minimal effort to obfuscate the whois lookup for the domain name.

The name and address is probably fake, or just one of his lackey's... though I think falsifying domain registry credintials is against the law, but so is running a ponzi scheme right?...
Or do we already know who pirate is?

Honestly I've only been paying half attention.


Whenever I see pirate come up in a thread I do think of this though:

http://arago4.tnw.utwente.nl/stonedead/movies/crimson-permanent-assurance/title.jpg
http://www.spikednation.com/sites/default/files/emvideo-youtube-errwLVgHpXY.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on July 12, 2012, 04:40:21 AM
Honestly I've only been paying half attention.

But you're fully baked.  Perfect qualifications for posting to this thread forum.

Fixed.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 12, 2012, 04:51:16 AM
That thing pirate does is most likely a ponzi.

But on the other hand, if he owns gpumax.com and that too was a ponzi, you would think that they would have gone through the minimal effort to obfuscate the whois lookup for the domain name.

The name and address is probably fake, or just one of his lackey's... though I think falsifying domain registry credintials is against the law, but so is running a ponzi scheme right?...
Or do we already know who pirate is?

Honestly I've only been paying half attention.


Whenever I see pirate come up in a thread I do think of this though:

http://arago4.tnw.utwente.nl/stonedead/movies/crimson-permanent-assurance/title.jpg
http://www.spikednation.com/sites/default/files/emvideo-youtube-errwLVgHpXY.jpg


I think usagi might be a little pissed if he reads that: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85444.0


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mp420 on July 12, 2012, 04:54:52 AM
I liked the original Bitcoin Ponzi Scheme (the one that advertised itself as such) far more. No one was even trying to imply it would work in the long term.

I'm not exactly sure Vandroiy will win this bet. It depends a lot on the structure of Pirate's ponzi. If his victims are confident enough he can lower the interest rates gradually so that eventually the scam can go on for a few years. For example 2% weekly interest would only require the size of the aggregate investment multiplying (roughly) by the factor of eight annually to keep Pirate's funds growing.  1% weekly would need less than 300% yearly growth.

Nothing other than ponzi could generate these kinds of returns, of course. So I'm quite rationally assuming BS&T is not a legit business.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 12, 2012, 05:17:01 AM
I liked the original Bitcoin Ponzi Scheme (the one that advertised itself as such) far more. No one was even trying to imply it would work in the long term.

I'm not exactly sure Vandroiy will win this bet. It depends a lot on the structure of Pirate's ponzi. If his victims are confident enough he can lower the interest rates gradually so that eventually the scam can go on for a few years. For example 2% weekly interest would only require the size of the aggregate investment multiplying (roughly) by the factor of eight annually to keep Pirate's funds growing.  1% weekly would need less than 300% yearly growth.

Nothing other than ponzi could generate these kinds of returns, of course. So I'm quite rationally assuming BS&T is not a legit business.

http://i.imgur.com/uxxL8.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phantitox on July 12, 2012, 05:29:02 AM
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/H-u8dDPC3P8/0.jpg

what level are we?  ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Hexadecibel on July 12, 2012, 05:29:13 AM
That thing pirate does is most likely a ponzi.

But on the other hand, if he owns gpumax.com and that too was a ponzi, you would think that they would have gone through the minimal effort to obfuscate the whois lookup for the domain name.

The name and address is probably fake, or just one of his lackey's... though I think falsifying domain registry credintials is against the law, but so is running a ponzi scheme right?...
Or do we already know who pirate is?

Honestly I've only been paying half attention.


Whenever I see pirate come up in a thread I do think of this though:

http://arago4.tnw.utwente.nl/stonedead/movies/crimson-permanent-assurance/title.jpg
http://www.spikednation.com/sites/default/files/emvideo-youtube-errwLVgHpXY.jpg


I think usagi might be a little pissed if he reads that: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85444.0

haha oh nice...


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phantitox on July 12, 2012, 06:17:17 AM

Level 3? That thing shows it growing by a factor of 6. How long does it take to get 6 times your money at 7% a week? Months....

edit: assuming that this is a ponzi... not that i think it is...

nah i dont think is a ponzi neither, i'm just curious to know, at what level are we  ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 12, 2012, 06:18:54 AM

Level 3? That thing shows it growing by a factor of 6. How long does it take to get 6 times your money at 7% a week? Months....

edit: assuming that this is a ponzi... not that i think it is...

Nah. Not applicable here, Goat. That there's a Pyramid Ponzi.

Now, what we got over here is a Bitcoin Ponzi. Completely different. One is pointy, the other isn't.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phantitox on July 12, 2012, 06:24:07 AM

Level 3? That thing shows it growing by a factor of 6. How long does it take to get 6 times your money at 7% a week? Months....

edit: assuming that this is a ponzi... not that i think it is...

Nah. Not applicable here, Goat. That there's a Pyramid Ponzi.

Now, what we got over here is a Bitcoin Ponzi. Completely different. One is pointy, the other isn't.

so, what would be the shape of the Bitcoin Ponzi ? :-\


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on July 12, 2012, 06:25:41 AM

Level 3? That thing shows it growing by a factor of 6. How long does it take to get 6 times your money at 7% a week? Months....

edit: assuming that this is a ponzi... not that i think it is...

Nah. Not applicable here, Goat. That there's a Pyramid Ponzi.

Now, what we got over here is a Bitcoin Ponzi. Completely different. One is pointy, the other isn't.

so, what would be the shape of the Bitcoin Ponzi ? :-\

The one we've created.... a pyramid within a pyramid.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 12, 2012, 06:27:09 AM
http://screenshotuploader.com/i/01/Lo6eWZv3n.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: fatigue on July 12, 2012, 06:27:50 AM

+1  ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phantitox on July 12, 2012, 06:34:46 AM

Level 3? That thing shows it growing by a factor of 6. How long does it take to get 6 times your money at 7% a week? Months....

edit: assuming that this is a ponzi... not that i think it is...

Nah. Not applicable here, Goat. That there's a Pyramid Ponzi.

Now, what we got over here is a Bitcoin Ponzi. Completely different. One is pointy, the other isn't.

so, what would be the shape of the Bitcoin Ponzi ? :-\

The one we've created.... a pyramid within a pyramid.

pyramidception? ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phantitox on July 12, 2012, 06:35:58 AM

HAHAHA Hell yeah im making one of those tomorrow  ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mp420 on July 12, 2012, 09:22:35 AM
I can't for my life think of why anyone would think ANYTHING borrowing money en masse and paying 7% (or 5%, or 1%) weekly interest would be anything but a scam. Unless there's hyperinflation that eats away the interest. But we're talking about bitcoins, not Zimbabwean dollars.

It is a mathematical certainty that Pirate is a scammer.

Also, if you really don't understand numbers, and you want an EMOTIONAL reason to be afraid of Pirate, I'd say, to me, he has the AURA of someone who's pulled off scams before.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 12, 2012, 09:49:26 AM
I can't for my life think of why anyone would think ANYTHING borrowing money en masse and paying 7% (or 5%, or 1%) weekly interest would be anything but a scam. Unless there's hyperinflation that eats away the interest. But we're talking about bitcoins, not Zimbabwean dollars.


Well then you'd better get off this forum, because it's full of scammers -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81542.0



Also, if you really don't understand numbers, and you want an EMOTIONAL reason to be afraid of Pirate, I'd say, to me, he has the AURA of someone who's pulled off scams before.

well, now i've heard everything


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mp420 on July 12, 2012, 09:55:25 AM

Well then you'd better get off this forum, because it's full of scammers -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81542.0

Yes, I believe, if these schemes (other than those that openly piggyback on Pirate) have no upper limit on deposits they're scams alright.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 12, 2012, 10:34:06 AM

Well then you'd better get off this forum, because it's full of scammers -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81542.0

Yes, I believe, if these schemes (other than those that openly piggyback on Pirate) have no upper limit on deposits they're scams alright.

Then ill sure pirate will take you up on a wager, like he did with Vandroiy, BTC5k


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BlackBison on July 12, 2012, 10:51:51 AM
I can't for my life think of why anyone would think ANYTHING borrowing money en masse and paying 7% (or 5%, or 1%) weekly interest would be anything but a scam. Unless there's hyperinflation that eats away the interest. But we're talking about bitcoins, not Zimbabwean dollars.


Well then you'd better get off this forum, because it's full of scammers -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81542.0


FYI that link you posted actually weakens your argument as it clearly shows how abnormal pirate's rates are compared to everyone elses, which are in the 1-2% range.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 12, 2012, 11:05:41 AM
I can't for my life think of why anyone would think ANYTHING borrowing money en masse and paying 7% (or 5%, or 1%) weekly interest would be anything but a scam. Unless there's hyperinflation that eats away the interest. But we're talking about bitcoins, not Zimbabwean dollars.


Well then you'd better get off this forum, because it's full of scammers -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81542.0


FYI that link you posted actually weakens your argument as it clearly shows how abnormal pirate's rates are compared to everyone elses, which are in the 1-2% range.

I know it could very well be a ponzi, i also know it might not be. only one person knows for sure, and anyone else who claims to know also (which they don't) is the only argument i have against.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BlackBison on July 12, 2012, 11:18:27 AM
You are correct of course.

However a wise man once said 'Never invest in a business you don't understand'  ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: crazy_rabbit on July 12, 2012, 12:02:51 PM
"Nothing other than ponzi could generate these kinds of returns, of course. So I'm quite rationally assuming BS&T is not a legit business."

Thats not really true though. There are a lot of ways to generate those kinds of returns, and lots of reason why someone might want to.

The most obvious is money laundering- for example if Pirate has a real life person who needs to clean up a lot of money and has agreed to pay quite a high percent to do so.

Personally, if I ripped off Bitconica (and I'm not saying Pirate did) I would want to come up with a system to clean up the coins. First I would decide how much of a loss I would be willing to take to purchase privacy from being it traced back to me, and then I would come up with a system that mixes the coins around nice and evenly. In this case, take lots of deposits, and pay stolen coins back out at regular intervals. If I need to clean 10,000 coins, and device I will give 1000 coins to protect my privacy, I could offer to accept 10000btc and pay back 11000btc. I would pay out the stolen coins and keep the clean ones.

The ponzi scheme aspect could be to disburse the coins even wider or distract attention. It can't last forever of course, but it depends on how many coins there are to 'clean'.

He could always be doing something illegal of course.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Scott J on July 12, 2012, 01:16:42 PM
Quote from: pirateat40
Avast Ye!
Quote

I've been avast for sometime, but I'm still none the wiser as to what's going on ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: wachtwoord on July 12, 2012, 02:50:53 PM
You are correct of course.

However a wise man once said 'Never invest in a business you don't understand'  ;D

There is a difference between a investment in and a loan to a business though.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 12, 2012, 05:06:15 PM
crazy_rabbit: There's no need to involve extra sources of dirty coins, because there is already BS&T.

If anything is the laundry, gpumax is. I've been wondering why BS&T didn't shut down now that is might have already peaked. The answer is surprisingly simple. It's taking time to punch the coins through miners to get untraceable fresh coins, scattered over large portions of the block chain.

I tip my hat to Pirate. I don't see who would try to trace this. Hell, he could mix in fake miner accounts. It's a complete mess nobody would even try to sort out. It's flawless.

The remaining question for me is: how many of the supporters chose to be oblivious? Given the abundant derailing of discussions, it should be safe to assume the number is not zero. These people, greedy as they are, will be competing who gets out last. I trust that Pirate will outrun some of them, and in this case, I'll be cheering for him. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 12, 2012, 05:25:17 PM
crazy_rabbit: There's no need to involve extra sources of dirty coins, because there is already BS&T.

If anything is the laundry, gpumax is. I've been wondering why BS&T didn't shut down now that is might have already peaked. The answer is surprisingly simple. It's taking time to punch the coins through miners to get untraceable fresh coins, scattered over large portions of the block chain.

I tip my hat to Pirate. I don't see who would try to trace this. Hell, he could mix in fake miner accounts. It's a complete mess nobody would even try to sort out. It's flawless.

The remaining question for me is: how many of the supporters chose to be oblivious? Given the abundant derailing of discussions, it should be safe to assume the number is not zero. These people, greedy as they are, will be competing who gets out last. I trust that Pirate will outrun some of them, and in this case, I'll be cheering for him. :)

And how many of the trolls continue to troll rather than accept they don't have any 100% proof it is a ponzi and instead keep spinning their wheels?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 12, 2012, 05:37:40 PM
And how many of the trolls continue to troll rather than accept they don't have any 100% proof it is a ponzi and instead keep spinning their wheels?

It's the thread the bet was made in. Isn't the point of the bet to make guesses? ???

And while we're at guessing... I take back what I said about believing you don't know. You're quite obsessed with the topic for someone who keeps pushing on a 100% proof, just for the record.

Edit: reeses, mined coins have no traces attached. Good luck finding them among all the miners and pools... it's borderline impossible to figure out what went where.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BlackBison on July 12, 2012, 05:39:21 PM
You are correct of course.

However a wise man once said 'Never invest in a business you don't understand'  ;D

There is a difference between a investment in and a loan to a business though.

Yea I was waiting for this reply.

The difference is when you actually own part of a risky business you have a (small) chance at becoming extremely wealthy from it in the event it becomes a monster.

The only person who appears to have a chance of becoming extremely wealthy from this escapade is pirate  ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 12, 2012, 06:03:31 PM
@BlackBison:

I wonder, if we form an opinion group "Pirateat40 did a good job," can we get everyone to agree?

It doesn't seem anyone from either side tries to deny that. Maybe the forum forms a singularity when everybody agrees for once, and Pirate transforms into Gilgamesh or something... ???


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 12, 2012, 06:34:09 PM
It's unfortunate that you do not understand laundering, but it makes more sense for your shotgun approach to libel.  Coins from the various thefts are tainted.  If there is a swapout with "pristine" coins, where do the tainted coins go?  In order for laundering to be effective, Pirate must end up with clean or untainted coins.  That would mean he would trade "dirty" coins and replace them with the clean coins.  Those tainted coins would then have his fingerprints on them.

You do not make sense.  Go read about the myth of "clean coins" and the inefficacy of coin tumblers with current tools.

I edited what you quoted, decided to stay a little less aggressive here.

Hm... would anyone care right now if gpumax miners were paid out with BS&T funds? It's not technically theft yet, and there are no limits on how BS&T is allowed to allocate funds. It's the very point of gpumax that the miner payouts need not be fresh coins, but can be from users who bought mining shares.



Know what? Let's just keep it at that. I can't say I know this one for sure, and I'm too lazy to check it, but it's possible. No "certainty" claims intended.

In time, we'll probably know, I'm fine with waiting until then.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on July 12, 2012, 06:44:08 PM
Pirate is a genius, we all agree.

Why are people still trying to figure out who he is? 30 minutes of internet detective work, and you can find out anything you want to know about him. Not that I have, of course.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: CodesInChaos on July 12, 2012, 07:07:09 PM
Why are people still trying to figure out who he is? 30 minutes of internet detective work, and you can find out anything you want to know about him. Not that I have, of course.
There is a name tied to pirate via the GPUMAX registration. But is it really him? Might be some kind of strawman or identity theft.

If it is really him, and BS&T defaults, do we have enough proof to hold him responsible in court?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 12, 2012, 07:23:55 PM
In this case, if the "laundry" is just BTCST to GPUMax, then it's possible to trace, but the effort wouldn't be worth it.  However, because pirate uses fixed (for all intents and purposes) addresses for withdrawals from BTCST and payments from GPUMax, it would be very simple to deposit your coins in BTCST (or pay one of your "spam victims" a few coins to deposit into their accounts) and see where they went by watching the block chain.

In the block chain, the dirty and mined coins would never cross paths. But yes, the BS&T payments would be visible. I haven't looked at it and don't know how to find deposit addresses of BS&T, since I only searched for auto-payouts to put a minimum estimate on obligations.

Again, I'm just saying it's possible. I'm going to just wait and see. It's not really my business whether Pirate re-uses wallets between his different projects, since he never said he wouldn't.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 12, 2012, 07:27:13 PM
If it is really him, and BS&T defaults, do we have enough proof to hold him responsible in court?

The money is gone anyway, so there may not be enough interest. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on July 12, 2012, 07:53:03 PM
Hm... would anyone care right now if gpumax miners were paid out with BS&T funds?
They are.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on July 12, 2012, 08:01:16 PM
Why are people still trying to figure out who he is? 30 minutes of internet detective work, and you can find out anything you want to know about him. Not that I have, of course.
There is a name tied to pirate via the GPUMAX registration. But is it really him? Might be some kind of strawman or identity theft.

If it is really him, and BS&T defaults, do we have enough proof to hold him responsible in court?

That's not what I'm talking about. Hell, a facebook link was posted a while back by a member of these forums. If you do some research and connect the dots, you can deduce exactly who he is beyond any reasonable doubt.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on July 12, 2012, 08:02:58 PM
Hm... would anyone care right now if gpumax miners were paid out with BS&T funds?
They are.

Pirate directly denied this when I brought it up the other day. (he said that GPUMAX is not a part of the BTCST model).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 12, 2012, 08:11:54 PM
Hm... would anyone care right now if gpumax miners were paid out with BS&T funds?
They are.

Pirate directly denied this when I brought it up the other day. (he said that GPUMAX is not a part of the BTCST model).

GPUMAX has nothing to do with BS&T's operation. Like I've said before, coins are coins and I manage all of my wallets from a single location.  I fund the payment wallet for GPUMAX using one of my operating wallets, so the coins can come from anywhere.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on July 12, 2012, 09:32:45 PM
crazy_rabbit: There's no need to involve extra sources of dirty coins, because there is already BS&T.

If anything is the laundry, gpumax is. I've been wondering why BS&T didn't shut down now that is might have already peaked. The answer is surprisingly simple. It's taking time to punch the coins through miners to get untraceable fresh coins, scattered over large portions of the block chain.

I tip my hat to Pirate. I don't see who would try to trace this. Hell, he could mix in fake miner accounts. It's a complete mess nobody would even try to sort out. It's flawless.

The remaining question for me is: how many of the supporters chose to be oblivious? Given the abundant derailing of discussions, it should be safe to assume the number is not zero. These people, greedy as they are, will be competing who gets out last. I trust that Pirate will outrun some of them, and in this case, I'll be cheering for him. :)

Yes, generating a lot of transactions with <theft source> → <laundry> → <point of centralization (GPUMax)> → <miners> will hide the theft very effectively.

finally! this is connecting the open ends. all the time I was wondering how gpumax would fit into the picture. and it is so clear and simple: laundry for bs   :o

also it would not make sense to run both ops under different names because people might eventually find it out via the chain anyway.

the supporters have to admit: if he wanted to launder coins from bs he could do it very elegantly with gpumax. and walk away whistling with a couple 100k freshly mined coins.


@pirate: I pull my hat to this operation, too, and will laugh with you once it is all over. Your booty is well earned.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 12, 2012, 09:50:16 PM
Well, Maged an Pirate both confirmed it, what's there to say? Bet or no bet, there's really no more room for interpretation.

I don't see what we should do now though. The scheme is probably saturated, and there's no way we can orderly re-pay the funds. Just letting it unfold allocates the available rest of the hot wallet to whomever manages to "get it" first. Pirate would probably rather lock dirty funds than pay them back, so there's little to gain by going on a rampage now.

One of my bets has a relevant time-out though. Given that gpumax update post, I guess this won't be a problem.



PS: Pirate, I still think it's cool, and I'll surely tell the story. Enjoy as well.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on July 12, 2012, 09:54:28 PM
I think everyone should keep in mind that mass withdrawals will be troublesome whether or not it is a P****.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 12, 2012, 10:11:35 PM
(...) whether or not it is a P****.

 ::)



I'm serious, I wouldn't mind closing the thread now. It's the right moment, more posts don't add to it. Keep it as a little and crazy part of the forum's history. Edit: sorry for that, I guess it's not my decision really.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on July 12, 2012, 10:13:28 PM
(...) whether or not it is a P****.

 ::)



I'm serious, I wouldn't mind closing the thread now. It's the right moment, more posts don't add to it. Keep it as a little and crazy part of the forum's history.

What I'm saying is, people will still be in denial for a long time.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 12, 2012, 10:20:46 PM
Van, you're an idiot ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on July 12, 2012, 10:29:33 PM
With this I can probably finish it whenever I want by just making another ruckus and then posting a full explanation.

I'm serious, I wouldn't mind closing the thread now. It's the right moment, more posts don't add to it.

I generally agree with your opinions on BTCST. But really, can you get any more arrogant than this?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 12, 2012, 10:39:12 PM
All he has is vague speculation and assumption (and yes, a large dose of arrogance).  Trying to scare people into withdrawing is a pretty schoolyard tactic.  A lot of it doesnt even make sense, but I guess its only himself he's embarrassing so where's the harm.

There's a term over here that fits this situation well;  Tall Poppy Syndrome.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 12, 2012, 10:47:34 PM
With this I can probably finish it whenever I want by just making another ruckus and then posting a full explanation.

I'm serious, I wouldn't mind closing the thread now. It's the right moment, more posts don't add to it.

I generally agree with your opinions on BTCST. But really, can you get any more arrogant than this?

Okay, what formulation do you want? I'll just remove that line.

Maged and Pirate said it. Gpumax is outputting BS&T coins, with a fat profit margin on top. What purpose can that possibly serve, burning coins? Laundering money by inserting it into BS&T?

What do you propose we do? Feel free to go on a rampage, the amount of coins we can save will not change. And if we decide that in here, Pirate knows and takes counter-measures, such as just locking everything.

I'm sorry I was arrogant, feel free to propose a better course of action now. ???

Edit: The idea is really to see whether some investors notice and can still withdraw, without us forcing Pirate to lock down immediately. That way, everyone gets a fair chance -- though admittedly, also Pirate gets more laundering time. I don't know what to do, and I don't see why it's my call to make.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SimBesh on July 12, 2012, 10:56:55 PM
I find it impressive, that van who bet $35k against pirate who already knows the outcome of the bet, can still be this cocky. At the start of the events leading to the bet, i was becoming more and more convinced it was a ponzi and was going to pull out all my BTC, but as time went on listening to van drone on, I've decided to ride it out.

I think it has to do with how you seem to think you know what's going on, when you do not. makes me tend to disbelieve everything you say.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on July 12, 2012, 10:59:16 PM
With this I can probably finish it whenever I want by just making another ruckus and then posting a full explanation.

I'm serious, I wouldn't mind closing the thread now. It's the right moment, more posts don't add to it.

I generally agree with your opinions on BTCST. But really, can you get any more arrogant than this?

Okay, what formulation do you want? I'll just remove that line.

Maged and Pirate said it. Gpumax is outputting BS&T coins, with a fat profit margin on top. What purpose can that possibly serve, burning coins? Laundering money by inserting it into BS&T?

What do you propose we do? Feel free to go on a rampage, the amount of coins we can save will not change. And if we decide that in here, Pirate knows and takes counter-measures, such as just locking everything.

I'm sorry I was arrogant, feel free to propose a better course of action now. ???

That works.

Also, "P****" was a joke. Might want to check your sarcasm dectector again.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 12, 2012, 11:10:49 PM
That works.

Also, "P****" was a joke. Might want to check your sarcasm dectector again.

Rolleyes isn't an insult. It's just rolling eyes at things! ::) :)

I wasn't really focusing on form, because the game theoretical problem is kind of confusing me right now. I'm not supposed to be too convincing, because that's a worse outcome for everyone!

My belief is that if I manage to convince everyone this second, the lock goes down, so nobody can withdraw and Pirate can't launder, leaving a whole lot of coins in limbo: too dirty for Pirate, not accessible by the former owners. It's really an absurd situation that I needed a moment to grasp... I don't know what to do now other than just go to sleep. I guess that's what I'll do.

I see I haven't been convincing just now, and feel very confused to believe this is a good thing. ??? This is too crazy for me now, if you guys can think of something, please do.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 12, 2012, 11:15:05 PM
I'm not sure he knows exactly what he wants people to do.   This whole thing just reeks of desperation on Vandroiy's part.  It's clear he's regretting making this (very daft) bet, and who can blame him.

Whatever, let him keep going, it's not going to change anything.  Like I said, Tall Poppy.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 13, 2012, 01:07:29 AM

Okay, this is an honest question: How could GPUmax generate serious revenue?


"shares", or hashes to solve the next block, already have a price, denominated as a fraction of a block of 50BTC. That fraction of a bitcoin already has a price set on MtGox. Who would pay more for your shares than you would get by submitting them to a pool?


Good, question and i don't know the answer,.
[..]

My question still stands. Can anyone shed some light on the GPUmax "marketplace" for me?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on July 13, 2012, 01:26:28 AM

Okay, this is an honest question: How could GPUmax generate serious revenue?


"shares", or hashes to solve the next block, already have a price, denominated as a fraction of a block of 50BTC. That fraction of a bitcoin already has a price set on MtGox. Who would pay more for your shares than you would get by submitting them to a pool?


Good, question and i don't know the answer,.
[..]

My question still stands. Can anyone shed some light on the GPUmax "marketplace" for me?

Some people (Who? Pirate himself? SR? Jimmy Hoffa?) pay a premium for vanilla coins. That's the theory.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 13, 2012, 02:48:34 AM
Some people (Who? Pirate himself? SR? Jimmy Hoffa?) pay a premium for vanilla coins. That's the theory.

It seems that freshly mined coins are often used to pay the interest payments.  For instance this interest payment (http://blockexplorer.com/tx/387650007748b61fb31999d7af8d3c983c7590bd2e7686cbaef82820f03a9db5#i9936868) uses 4 different freshly mined 47.5 BTC inputs at address 1PSf86KnLuzM7Ris5kDhTEZwooR3p2iyfV.  I don't see why fresh coins would be paid out as interest to lenders if this is indeed a laundering operation.

Are these coins mined by GPUMAX?  Can anyone tell?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nrd525 on July 13, 2012, 02:53:13 AM
Estimated cost of laundering money is 4% to 15%.

http://www.piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/381/3iie3705.pdf


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 13, 2012, 03:54:59 AM
Some people (Who? Pirate himself? SR? Jimmy Hoffa?) pay a premium for vanilla coins. That's the theory.

It seems that freshly mined coins are often used to pay the interest payments.  For instance this interest payment (http://blockexplorer.com/tx/387650007748b61fb31999d7af8d3c983c7590bd2e7686cbaef82820f03a9db5#i9936868) uses 4 different freshly mined 47.5 BTC inputs at address 1PSf86KnLuzM7Ris5kDhTEZwooR3p2iyfV.  I don't see why fresh coins would be paid out as interest to lenders if this is indeed a laundering operation.

Are these coins mined by GPUMAX?  Can anyone tell?
Well apparently GPUMAX has an internal pool of its own to handle load balancing, and since Pirateat40 has said that all the funds go into and come out of the same wallet, that seems to be the explanation as far as I can tell.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phantitox on July 13, 2012, 04:19:53 AM
Estimated cost of laundering money is 4% to 15%.

http://www.piie.com/publications/chapters_preview/381/3iie3705.pdf

if is a ML ops, then it should be lower rates, even lower that 4% the methods on the .pdf are the classics all with high - mid risk, bitcoin is like a paradise for ML, i mean almost 0 fee for transfer, totally anon.. if i want to make some laundry and a guy come to me and tell me that is gonna charge me 1 - 4% ....
 http://www.matthewratzloff.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/take-my-money.jpg



Edit: Im not saying that is the exact % but probably is lower than the classics methods


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 13, 2012, 04:26:13 AM
My question still stands. Can anyone shed some light on the GPUmax "marketplace" for me?

I have offered to explain this for 100BTC.  While the exchange rates for BTC have risen, the in/out is still BTC-denominated.

Without shenanigans or otherwise ethically dubious activity, GPUMax can be an effective tool for producing more BTC than it costs to purchase the shares.  It depends on a number of factors, all of which should be obvious considering GPUMax's capabilities and working out from there.  If you have a GPUMax account, look at the purchase options and think creatively.

There is a small matter of luck involved (I have had my approach not work profitably three times), but proper analysis will inform activity that will always lead to a return on expenses.  I believe most people employ faulty analysis and arrive at an unworkable model for its use.  The rest of us keep our mouths shut because the wait on purchases is long enough already.

Ponzi.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 13, 2012, 05:33:30 AM
Some people (Who? Pirate himself? SR? Jimmy Hoffa?) pay a premium for vanilla coins. That's the theory.

Thanks, I was missing this. Though I think some pools do their payouts as generated/virgin/vanilla coins, eligius pool for one.


My question still stands. Can anyone shed some light on the GPUmax "marketplace" for me?

I have offered to explain this for 100BTC.  While the exchange rates for BTC have risen, the in/out is still BTC-denominated.

Without shenanigans or otherwise ethically dubious activity, GPUMax can be an effective tool for producing more BTC than it costs to purchase the shares.  It depends on a number of factors, all of which should be obvious considering GPUMax's capabilities and working out from there.  If you have a GPUMax account, look at the purchase options and think creatively.

There is a small matter of luck involved (I have had my approach not work profitably three times), but proper analysis will inform activity that will always lead to a return on expenses.  I believe most people employ faulty analysis and arrive at an unworkable model for its use.  The rest of us keep our mouths shut because the wait on purchases is long enough already.

I'm not surprised nobody has taken up your offer. To produce more BTC than it costs to purchase shares, somebody must be selling shares for less than they're worth (or there's some strategy analogous to pool-hopping).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on July 13, 2012, 05:38:02 AM
Some people (Who? Pirate himself? SR? Jimmy Hoffa?) pay a premium for vanilla coins. That's the theory.

Thanks, I was missing this. Though I think some pools do their payouts as generated/virgin/vanilla coins, eligius pool for one.


Right, but to take advantage of this, you have to actually mine. Pirate doesn't mine, or at least not as many coins as he needs, so he just pays people to mine coins for him.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 13, 2012, 11:59:19 AM
What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on July 13, 2012, 12:30:54 PM
What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/23408920.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on July 13, 2012, 01:23:01 PM
What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 13, 2012, 06:18:22 PM
What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 13, 2012, 06:55:30 PM
What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.

I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 13, 2012, 06:57:32 PM
What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.

I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.

How do you account for the people that ask for withdrawals timed with the interest payments?  That will artificially inflate their interest payment by a factor of 7.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 13, 2012, 07:08:40 PM
What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.

I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.

How do you account for the people that ask for withdrawals timed with the interest payments?  That will artificially inflate their interest payment by a factor of 7.

Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 13, 2012, 07:26:36 PM
What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.

I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.

How do you account for the people that ask for withdrawals timed with the interest payments?  That will artificially inflate their interest payment by a factor of 7.

Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments?

People have a singular withdrawal address.  If you request a withdrawal, it appears just like an interest payment.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 13, 2012, 07:38:29 PM
People have a singular withdrawal address.  If you request a withdrawal, it appears just like an interest payment.

Looking at the target address history and the timing of withdrawals makes it possible to distinguish between the two with reasonable accuracy.

Edit: also
<pirateat40> zerokwel, i wish i only paid out 22k a week. :(


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on July 13, 2012, 07:54:10 PM
I'm not surprised nobody has taken up your offer. To produce more BTC than it costs to purchase shares, somebody must be selling shares for less than they're worth (or there's some strategy analogous to pool-hopping).

Define "worth".

What you would in BTC get by submitting the share to any mining pool.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 13, 2012, 07:57:31 PM
Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments?

People have a singular withdrawal address.  If you request a withdrawal, it appears just like an interest payment.

That makes sense, but what I asked is whether withdrawals and interest appear in the same transaction.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 13, 2012, 07:58:17 PM
Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments?

People have a singular withdrawal address.  If you request a withdrawal, it appears just like an interest payment.

That makes sense, but what I asked is whether withdrawals and interest appear in the same transaction.

Ask pirate?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 13, 2012, 10:34:27 PM
I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.

My guess is that many of his clients, probably a majority, work with compound interest. My reasoning is that people who pay in a relatively small amount base their investment on the hope to turn their insignificant initial investment into a significant amount.

If you only pay in a three-digit amount, what you earn by having your 7% paid out weekly is and remains peanuts. But if you could compound your interest over a year or two or three, you'd be rich.

I therefore guess that those who compound their interest tend to be three-digit investors, while those who collect their interest weekly tend to be those with larger investments. This is admittedly only a wild guess. It would mean that he has considerably more than 300k BTC, but not two or three times as much. My rough guess (based on your guess) would be 500k, quite a tidy amount of untidy money, enough to live a moderate life of leisure. It remains mere guesswork, but I wouldn't be surprised if we hit near home.

This makes me more confident that the scheme will end soon, probably this month, next month at the latest. If he kept having to pay out 22k BTC every week, without a steady stream of new investors his stockpile would be empty after a relatively low number of weeks, much less than a year. But he does not want to get anywhere near empty, so he has to end it very soon.

If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 13, 2012, 10:36:22 PM
If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?

Is this a reference to gpumax?  If so, its wrong.  GPUMax leasing hasn't been running much at all.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: pirateat40 on July 13, 2012, 10:42:34 PM
If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?

Is this a reference to gpumax?  If so, its wrong.  GPUMax leasing hasn't been running much at all.


Shhhhh, let them run with it. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 13, 2012, 11:33:09 PM
If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?

Is this a reference to gpumax?  If so, its wrong.  GPUMax leasing hasn't been running much at all.

Don't you guys call it "public work"?

It's pretty simple to talk about an invite-only black-box and act like others are wrong. But this doesn't match the terminology used in the gpumax thread, so I'm not convinced.

I'll just ask people there.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jamesg on July 13, 2012, 11:59:06 PM
If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?

Is this a reference to gpumax?  If so, its wrong.  GPUMax leasing hasn't been running much at all.

Don't you guys call it "public work"?

It's pretty simple to talk about an invite-only black-box and act like others are wrong. But this doesn't match the terminology used in the gpumax thread, so I'm not convinced.

I'll just ask people there.

I run all of my hashing power through gpumax and imsaguy is correct. There has not been much public work. Us "in the know" call it leasing.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 14, 2012, 12:05:07 AM
I run all of my hashing power through gpumax and imsaguy is correct. There has not been much public work. Us "in the know" call it leasing.

Okay... does this mean you are getting fresh coins?

That's the main point actually. Is there a lot of hashpower used on work that is paid with coins that have history? How big is the fraction of clean or relatively new coins?

Edit: "I run all of my hashing power through gpumax" is the important part here -- so they control which coins you get, no?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 14, 2012, 12:29:20 AM
No, dumbshit.

Any answers by people that haven't been blacklisted for ages?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jamesg on July 14, 2012, 12:33:17 AM
No, dumbshit.

Any answers by people that haven't been blacklisted for ages?

Hi Vandroiy,

I'll help you out since you are asking but it's a pretty simple concept. GPUMAX is a "proxy" that points my hashing power to my pool when they are not leasing shares. This means that my pool pays me my coins in this case.

When GPUMAX sells shares, coins are received from people who paid in BTC to lease them.

That's it.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 14, 2012, 12:37:11 AM
Hehe :D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 14, 2012, 12:51:19 AM
gigavps: So, it all boils down to the question of throughput of these leased shares. What fraction of gpumax mining happens on them?

I just got a private response that claimed 30% premium was typical, and it used to be better? Now, guys, something doesn't add up here. Who would pay a "typical" 30% while a majority just forwards with no premium?

It's probably better if we all wait for some feedback from the miner thread. Hell knows which account belongs to whom here.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 14, 2012, 12:56:58 AM
I just can't believe how out of your depth you are with this stuff ::)

Way to make a bet without any facts.  Sheesh.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jamesg on July 14, 2012, 12:59:59 AM
gigavps: So, it all boils down to the question of throughput of these leased shares. What fraction of gpumax mining happens on them?

I just got a private response that claimed 30% premium was typical, and it used to be better? Now, guys, something doesn't add up here. Who would pay a "typical" 30% while a majority just forwards with no premium?

It's probably better if we all wait for some feedback from the miner thread. Hell knows which account belongs to whom here.

Vandroiy,

I must say that your knee jerk reactions to pirate's businesses are going to cost you a lot of money. You would do well to start reading more and typing less.

Best,
gigavps


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 14, 2012, 01:20:10 AM
I should've noticed that VIP badge earlier.

*sigh*

You can flood all you want, I'm getting confirmations and you just burned another kinky last year's account.

The fluctuations in workload will be hard to explain from the outside. But this is not important; even 30% of the workload of a system this size has considerable coin throughput.



We're now at "No, we're laundering something else!!!!1" as an excuse, and even that does not sound right. Maybe my estimates of the BS&T deposit curve are just wrong. I hear about lots of workload earlier this year, when BS&T was already growing neatly.

Wow, so my timing was off. So where did all the leasing earlier come from, then? :P


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 14, 2012, 01:27:06 AM
All jokes aside, I'm honestly starting to think you might have mental health issues :/


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 14, 2012, 01:31:02 AM
Grasping at straws in this thread again, are we?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 14, 2012, 01:40:44 AM
Grasping at straws in this thread again, are we?

If by straws you mean a substantial fraction of the coin output of Gpumax, yes.

I'm also logging which accounts keep flooding away my posts, just for later use. I wasn't expecting you to join.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 14, 2012, 02:10:45 AM
Grasping at straws in this thread again, are we?

If by straws you mean a substantial fraction of the coin output of Gpumax, yes.

I'm also logging which accounts keep flooding my threads, just for later use. I wasn't expecting you to join.
Your thread, my ass. Anyways, that's beside the point.

Is it a problem if the wallets of both services are one and the same, as long as the book keeping is separate and accurate?
If you cared to read the GPUMAX thread more carefully, you would be able to easily find out how it works. But since I'm feeling a little nice tonight, I'll humor you by explaining it.

First main point: Any miner with an account can point hash power at it. By default, all hash power is proxied to the "offline pool", which means an external pool. For the purposes of an example, I would point my miners at GPUMAX, and my hash power would be proxied to Eclipse. The offline pool can be any pool you want it to be, such as Ozcoin, EMC, Slush, etc.

Second main point: You can choose to be paid more for your hash power by allowing GPUMAX to redirect it to the pools of those that pay for the service. You set the price per share that you are willing to be paid. If the price is too high, your hash power continues to go to the offline pool and you are not paid extra. If the price you set is around market price, or if it is set absurdly low (market price varies), your hash power is then removed from your offline pool and directed to the pool of the person who purchased the hash power. This assumes that "purchases are running", which they may not be all the time.

Third main point: As a purchaser, you are forced to pay a fixed price on two levels - normal priority, and high priority. The "fixed" price actually varies based on what miners are asking for their PPS price, but you cannot adjust it as a buyer in order to raise or lower your bid, except for the 2 priority levels. This makes it somewhat of a one-sided market, although the PPS price of faster miners has more weight that that of slower miners.

Fourth main point: As a purchaser, you are provided with a fixed deposit address that is unique to you. As a miner, you must set a payout address if you wish to be paid for your work.

Fifth main point: As a purchaser, the hash power you pay for must be directed at a small list of whitelisted compatible pools. You cannot mine to your own dark pool, or p2pool, or uncle bob's brand new prop pool that he just set up 3 days ago.

Sixth main point: As a purchaser, the ability to throw around 400-600 or even more gh/s of power to some of the big main pools basically on demand is very useful and profitable, if done with a bit of common sense. This is why you will pay a premium to use the service. Furthermore, a fee of 10% is collected on purchases by GPUMAX for their own coffers. The maximum purchase is currently 2 million shares, which at current market price will cost you BTC81.4 for normal priority, or BTC89.34 at high priority.

Final point: The accounts that are being mined to are not under control of GPUMAX, and the payout from them is sent directly to you. GPUMAX uses the above mentioned fee to be able to provide the service to so many people.

I hope this helps in your understanding of how the system works, and serves to illustrate how it is unlikely to be a component in the BS&T operation. It cannot be used effectively as a money laundering tool, because the throughput just isn't there. If we assumed that a 2 million share purchase would run continuously at 800gh/s, it would still take a little bit of time for that to complete, which means your laundering operation would be slow and allow very few coins through per day.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on July 14, 2012, 02:11:38 AM
Grasping at straws in this thread again, are we?

If by straws you mean a substantial fraction of the coin output of Gpumax, yes.

I'm also logging which accounts keep flooding away my posts, just for later use. I wasn't expecting you to join.



If by flooding you mean posting, then tough shit princess, better get used to it.  This is a discussion forum, not your personal site to act weird on.

Good move editing out the part about this being your thread as well.  I had a nice reply typed up for that.

Also, if you think people care enough about what you're saying to actively try and force your posts away (which at most would push them a few spots up, oh no!), you're more deluded that I thought.   In fact, if that were the case, those people would be much better off just leaving your posts where they are (rather than a few posts up, oh no!) as you're doing a great job of coming across like a raving lunatic.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 14, 2012, 04:55:13 AM

... Excellent description of GPUMAX...


OK I am going to use GPUMAX to launder some coins.  I take 90 of my dirty BTC and send them to GPUMAX.  10% of these dirty coins go directly to Pirate, the rest get sent out to all the miners doing my "dirty work" for me.  Let's assume I pointed the GPUMAX purchase to deepbit (I know, gasp).  After my purchase is complete deepbit will pay me my share of what coins were earned from their wallet.  This is just a bunch of coins, some new, some old, some dirty (most old coins are).

So darn.  That just did not work the way you told me it would.

And I still have 40,000 - 90 BTC to wash!  This is going to take forever...

Why you flooding his thread bro?  Clearly you must have your nose up pirate's ass.  ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on July 14, 2012, 05:57:04 AM
No, dumbshit.

Any answers by people that haven't been blacklisted for ages?

Hi Vandroiy,

I'll help you out since you are asking but it's a pretty simple concept. GPUMAX is a "proxy" that points my hashing power to my pool when they are not leasing shares. This means that my pool pays me my coins in this case.

When GPUMAX sells shares, coins are received from people who paid in BTC to lease them.

That's it.

Isn't that what I said?

Close enough.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: CodesInChaos on July 14, 2012, 09:49:21 AM
No, I just have 40K dirty BTC I need to wash.  This GPUMAX laundry is way too slow.  Does anyone else have any bright ideas on how I can clean up these dirty 40K coins?
Vandroiy didn't say *you* can wash coins with GPUMAX. He said Pirate uses to wash his own coins. One way to do that would be paying miners with coins from BS&T, while keeping freshly mined coins to himself. Everything I heard confirms that this is happening, at least in part. But what I do not know is if the throughput is big enough to wash a significant part of BS&T money.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 14, 2012, 10:40:11 AM
By the way, Pirateat40 keeps making some subtle grammatical errors that non-native-English speakers rarely notice, but which, nevertheless, a native English speaker would not make. His English is pretty good, but I still doubt that he is of American or British origin.

I see plenty of native english speakers around here who can't tell the difference between THERE, THEIR and THEY'RE... and it's just a little example as there are much more.
Being born/raised in a certain country doesn't make you literate in that language.

What was your point again?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jamesg on July 14, 2012, 10:46:59 AM
im I'm an american. and Have you seen my me type?

FTFY


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 14, 2012, 10:48:54 AM
lol, im an american and have you seen my type? oh lulz  ::)

Goat, I can honestly say I have never quite seen your type before ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 14, 2012, 10:51:50 AM
I see plenty of native english speakers around here who can't tell the difference between THERE, THEIR and THEY'RE... and it's just a little example as there are much more.
Being born/raised in a certain country doesn't make you literate in that language.

True, but some errors are typical and widespread, while some others are untypical for native English speakers. For example, would any native English speaker ever say:

"I hope you soon realize …"


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 14, 2012, 10:57:13 AM
rjk: Who in his right mind would buy mining shares that yield less than they cost? If bought shares do not get laundered, then I would assume Pirateat40 is reserving this privilege to himself?

But I agree on a more important question, which BurtW also asked:

No, I just have 40K dirty BTC I need to wash.  This GPUMAX laundry is way too slow.  Does anyone else have any bright ideas on how I can clean up these dirty 40K coins?

This is actually the only viable argument here. Is the laundry too slow? We have about 7200 coins produced daily, what fraction might it get?

As an example, 6% of hashpower over 100 days yield 43200 BTC. That's becoming interesting. If it is able to use 20% of hashpower -- well, then there's little question, with 100k BTC in 70 days! So, can someone persuade me there's not enough hashpower there? The gpumax thread looks pretty long for a minor operation, if I may say.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 14, 2012, 10:58:50 AM
I see plenty of native english speakers around here who can't tell the difference between THERE, THEIR and THEY'RE... and it's just a little example as there are much more.
Being born/raised in a certain country doesn't make you literate in that language.

True, but some errors are typical and widespread, while some others are untypical for native English speakers. For example, would any native English speaker ever say:

"I hope you soon realize …"

Odd, sure, but some native speakers aren't as good at formal (ish) written language construction as they are at spoken language, especially if their spoken language is usually very informal, and includes "Arrrr!" much of the time.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on July 14, 2012, 11:01:04 AM
For example, would any native English speaker ever say:

"I hope you soon realize …"

The sentence structure is non-standard, but not beyond the norms. Nowhere near engrish. It may be more indicative of his personality, than his native tongue.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 14, 2012, 11:01:36 AM
I see plenty of native english speakers around here who can't tell the difference between THERE, THEIR and THEY'RE... and it's just a little example as there are much more.
Being born/raised in a certain country doesn't make you literate in that language.

True, but some errors are typical and widespread, while some others are untypical for native English speakers. For example, would any native English speaker ever say:

"I hope you soon realize …"

Why wouldn't they? I know plenty of persons who write just like they speak, even when it makes sentences odd(and by saying odd I'm being nice). Please explain it to us. Give your best shot at the literary analysis of Pirate's posts, please.

Also, google doesn't agree with you, on the rarity of the exact same sentence structure
http://www.google.com/search?client=ubuntu&channel=fs&q="I+hope+you+soon+realize" (http://www.google.com/search?client=ubuntu&channel=fs&q="I+hope+you+soon+realize")


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on July 14, 2012, 11:11:26 AM
rjk: Who in his right mind would buy mining shares that yield less than they cost? If bought shares do not get laundered, then I would assume Pirateat40 is reserving this privilege to himself?

But I agree on a more important question, which BurtW also asked:

No, I just have 40K dirty BTC I need to wash.  This GPUMAX laundry is way too slow.  Does anyone else have any bright ideas on how I can clean up these dirty 40K coins?

This is actually the only viable argument here. Is the laundry too slow? We have about 7200 coins produced daily, what fraction might it get?

As an example, 6% of hashpower over 100 days yield 43200 BTC. That's becoming interesting. If it is able to use 20% of hashpower -- well, then there's little question, with 100k BTC in 70 days! So, can someone persuade me there's not enough hashpower there? The gpumax thread looks pretty long for a minor operation, if I may say.

other possible use cases:
* hopping (is that still profitable with the allowed pools?)
* launching a pool and pretending there are lots of miners
* getting over a pool payout threshold
* one more not of relevance that I want to keep to myself as I might give it a try :)

It is kinda frightening that nobody can tell what percentage of the mining network pirate controls - even if that control would be short lived if used in a really bad way.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 14, 2012, 11:43:56 AM
Goat is a "Pirate pass-through" operator. Three consecutive posts on his own typing? I'll start reporting if this continues.

Re-stating the current points of discussion:

  • How much hashpower might Gpumax have?
  • Who is paying for the premium on Gpumax, and why?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 14, 2012, 11:52:51 AM
Goat is a "Pirate pass-through" operator. Three consecutive posts on his own typing? I'll start reporting if this continues.

Nothing to report, Van. This thread went waaaaaay OT ages ago. There's no way for any post to be OT.

And for the record, I'm a popcorn eater. I have no allegiance to either side in this debate. I still have no idea exactly what Pirate is doing with investor coins, and am just waiting see what happens in the end.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 14, 2012, 12:16:03 PM
Actually, I was just talking about Gpumax being a laundry. There has been a rather small ratio of "Ponzi" said in these last posts.

I have no way to know whether anything you say is true, but a lot of the posting style suggests it's not. It's just distracting, insulting, and distracting again. If it were really so boring, there would be no reason to post in the first place.



Repeating the questions at hand:

  • How much hashpower might Gpumax have?
  • Who is paying for the premium on Gpumax, and why?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 14, 2012, 12:21:17 PM
Repeating the questions at hand:

  • How much hashpower might Gpumax have?
None of your business.

  • Who is paying for the premium on Gpumax, and why?
None of your business.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on July 14, 2012, 12:42:33 PM
Actually, I was just talking about Gpumax being a laundry. There has been a rather small ratio of "Ponzi" said in these last posts.
This is very disappointing, I have to agree. It's now down to about 0.56 Ponzis/thread atm.

Quote
Repeating the questions at hand:

  • How much hashpower might Gpumax have?

Do you have any ideas how this data could be obtained? You could ask pool ops I guess, they'd probably have a good idea when GPUMax came a-calling.

Quote
  • Who is paying for the premium on Gpumax, and why?

Someone with a non-mining reason. I can't see anyway of paying a premium like the one quoted here and obtaining a useful mining income without pool hopping.

I suppose if electricity in a customers' country costs more than 32c per kWh it's cheaper to buy coins from GPUMax (based on 1.7Ghps and 1000 W miner, 1 coin per day at current D. Someone check my calcs?)



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on July 14, 2012, 01:28:02 PM
Is it a problem if the wallets of both services are one and the same, as long as the book keeping is separate and accurate?
They aren't. Funds are explicitly flowing from BS&T to a completely separate GPUmax wallet.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 14, 2012, 05:21:23 PM
This is actually the only viable argument here. Is the laundry too slow? We have about 7200 coins produced daily, what fraction might it get?

As an example, 6% of hashpower over 100 days yield 43200 BTC. That's becoming interesting. If it is able to use 20% of hashpower -- well, then there's little question, with 100k BTC in 70 days! So, can someone persuade me there's not enough hashpower there? The gpumax thread looks pretty long for a minor operation, if I may say.

Dude, you're borderline idiot.  It ISN'T the only argument just because you haven't thought of the others.  Seriously, you want people to do all the thinking for you while you just spew bullshit.

As giga and I already explained, hashing on GPUmax hasn't been 24x7.   In the beginning it was higher priced and it was more steady for two reasons.. there were fewer miners in the system so it took longer to get through jobs and because the market price hadn't settled yet.  One large miner could put a stupid high price in and bring up the system average.  That is no longer the case. Once again you guys are making estimates based on FUBAR evidence.  Your estimates factor in GPUmax running 24x7, but instead its running maybe 1x5.  Nowhere near enough to launder the amount of coins you think pirate needs to launder.

Here's the next thing for you to consider, but you seriously need to consider it.  I will repeat this post over and over until you do.

How is this guy paying 110% https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60717.0 ?

Next, how are any of the other pools that were around paying 110%?

Next, why have many pools switched from Prop to PPS or some other averaged system?

Once you figure that, you'll realize you owe pirate an apology.  Seeing how you shittalk though, I doubt that will ever actually ever happen because you don't have the balls for it.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: copumpkin on July 14, 2012, 05:38:12 PM
It ISN'T the only argument just because you haven't thought of the others.

Haven't you heard of the powerful proof technique called reductio ad absentiam imaginationis? Trust me, I'm a proof theorist and mathematical logician.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 14, 2012, 05:42:05 PM
It ISN'T the only argument just because you haven't thought of the others.

Haven't you heard of the powerful proof technique called reductio ad absentiam imaginationis? Trust me, I'm a proof theorist and mathematical logician.

I'm familiar with reductio ad absurdum but after a quick consult with an Italian friend much better at Latin than I, I realized they were pretty similar.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 14, 2012, 06:04:52 PM
imsaguy: Clipse? :o

Why come here and point that out to me? I only knew Clipse from IRC, I thought it was some spam identity on Pirate's side to throw insults at me. He's quite active in the BS&T chan from what I saw.

???

I begin to get the feeling "imsaguy" is just making fun of me by now. Why the heck did you point that out, just to watch me go "lolwut"? Well, that was a perfect success. I guess we figured out were just told how they got the throughput up.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 14, 2012, 06:16:18 PM
imsaguy: lol WHAT? CLIPSE? :o

God these people, brazen is an insufficient word. ;D And you come here just pointing it out to my face! Pool started: January 22, 2012. I only knew Clipse from IRC, I thought it was some spam identity on Pirate's side to throw insults at me. He's quite active in the BS&T chan from what I saw.



Maged, feel like checking Clipse's pool for BS&T coin output in a similar manner? Should I start offering bets you'll find some? ???

I begin to get the feeling "imsaguy" is just making fun of me by now. Why the heck did you point that out, just to watch me go "lolwut"? Well, that was a perfect success. I guess we figured out were just told how they got the throughput up.

Clearly you didn't bother to think outside of your tiny box.  Answer each of those questions, on their own.

As promised:

How are any of the other pools that were around paying 110%?

Next, why have many pools switched from Prop to PPS or some other averaged system?

Once you figure that, you'll realize you owe pirate an apology.  Seeing how you shittalk though, I doubt that will ever actually ever happen because you don't have the balls for it.

When you fail to positively answer the last question, it shows just how much you really don't know about bitcoin.  Which then in turn explains why you fail on so many of your other claims.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on July 14, 2012, 07:44:27 PM
Is it a problem if the wallets of both services are one and the same, as long as the book keeping is separate and accurate?
They aren't. Funds are explicitly flowing from BS&T to a completely separate GPUmax wallet.

Examples? (More than one.)
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/12005455/bcd1293a5ec225add03a958b5b2ad6c5487daec5a26c4d990326ed9c8a467951
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/11686513/1bc697e270a36bc93c3283765e04c77e920761284f599106f679506d22af012f

We're talking thousands of coins, here, and that's just with a quick glance. And yes, the addresses these funds are coming from have been verified to be in the BS&T wallet.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 14, 2012, 08:08:46 PM
Is it a problem if the wallets of both services are one and the same, as long as the book keeping is separate and accurate?
They aren't. Funds are explicitly flowing from BS&T to a completely separate GPUmax wallet.

Examples? (More than one.)
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/12005455/bcd1293a5ec225add03a958b5b2ad6c5487daec5a26c4d990326ed9c8a467951
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/11686513/1bc697e270a36bc93c3283765e04c77e920761284f599106f679506d22af012f

We're talking thousands of coins, here, and that's just with a quick glance. And yes, the addresses these funds are coming from have been verified to be in the BS&T wallet.

Isn't this just like when person(s) pay the the shakaru collection fund?  If I don't setup an explicit wallet, people will see outputs that go to my other things and the shakaru distributions will come from other sources.  Basically, it isn't necessarily shakaru in->shakaru out.  Am I missing something here?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on July 14, 2012, 08:33:54 PM
Is it a problem if the wallets of both services are one and the same, as long as the book keeping is separate and accurate?
They aren't. Funds are explicitly flowing from BS&T to a completely separate GPUmax wallet.

Examples? (More than one.)
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/12005455/bcd1293a5ec225add03a958b5b2ad6c5487daec5a26c4d990326ed9c8a467951
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/11686513/1bc697e270a36bc93c3283765e04c77e920761284f599106f679506d22af012f

We're talking thousands of coins, here, and that's just with a quick glance. And yes, the addresses these funds are coming from have been verified to be in the BS&T wallet.

Isn't this just like when person(s) pay the the shakaru collection fund?  If I don't setup an explicit wallet, people will see outputs that go to my other things and the shakaru distributions will come from other sources.  Basically, it isn't necessarily shakaru in->shakaru out.  Am I missing something here?
No, you pretty much have it, which is why I haven't claimed that this is a bad sign. However, I don't know what a payment to buy work off of GPUmax looks like to compare against. If all of said payments are sent to BS&T deposit addresses, there's nothing fishy here (other than a convenient excuse that allows Pirate to hide his own laundry with transactions that don't correspond to any GPUmax deposits). What would be scary is if normal deposits to GPUmax were directly sent to GPUmax's wallet, despite this massive flow between the two systems.

Some of you guys seem to have purchased from GPUmax. Could I get your deposit address?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on July 14, 2012, 08:59:55 PM
Turns out, GPUmax deposits are sent to BS&T. That makes this flow almost worthless, information wise, and the audit of BS&T even more impossible.

That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear: your coins are perfectly laundered, in ALL respects. However, this hasn't made enough income for Pirate to pay for BS&T, not by a long shot.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 14, 2012, 09:22:03 PM
Also, google doesn't agree with you, on the rarity of the exact same sentence structure
http://www.google.com/search?client=ubuntu&channel=fs&q="I+hope+you+soon+realize" (http://www.google.com/search?client=ubuntu&channel=fs&q="I+hope+you+soon+realize")

Google Search is useless here. Whether I search for "I hope you soon realize" or the correct "I hope you'll soon realize", I get 382,000 hits either way, apparently because Google uses some kind of fuzzy search.

But perhaps I'm mistaken anyway, and this is commonly used slang. I don't remember other flawed English in detail, so I have to withdraw the conclusion.

"Realize" is American English. British would be "realise", so that makes Great Britain less likely. But then it would always be possible to fake a certain type of English, if somebody really wanted to.

Consider any conclusions retracted. It don't matter much anyway (to use my own slang).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 14, 2012, 09:52:21 PM
AFAIK any search term that is enclosed on quotation marks is an expression search and will only return results that contain said expression.
I've just tried it myself(using quotation marks) and it only shows me around 45k results for each search, not 385k, and the results resturned are very different from each other.

Lrn 2 google ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 14, 2012, 10:10:20 PM
AFAIK any search term that is enclosed on quotation marks is an expression search and will only return results that contain said expression.
I've just tried it myself(using quotation marks) and it only shows me around 45k results for each search, not 385k, and the results resturned are very different from each other.

Lrn 2 google ;)

Google has been tuning their searches to individual users for quite some time already, so each user can get a different result. But anyway the totals, though not the ordering, for the two different searches are the same, showing that Google Search is broken, which has been irritating me every day since Google did these changes.

I will stop explaining Google Search here, because we are drifting too far off-topic. I'd like to return to the more interesting question through which institutions (in addition to GPUMAX?) the money is laundered.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 14, 2012, 10:20:06 PM
AFAIK any search term that is enclosed on quotation marks is an expression search and will only return results that contain said expression.
I've just tried it myself(using quotation marks) and it only shows me around 45k results for each search, not 385k, and the results resturned are very different from each other.

Lrn 2 google ;)

Google has been tuning their searches to individual users for quite some time already, so each user can get a different result. But anyway the totals, though not the ordering, for the two different searches are the same, showing that Google Search is broken, which has been irritating me every day since Google did these changes.

I will stop explaining Google Search here, because we are drifting too far off-topic. I'd like to return to the more interesting question through which institutions (in addition to GPUMAX?) the money is laundered.

I know very well what personalized search is, but that only ranks certain sites above others depending if you already clicked those results on previous searches or if someone in your G+ circles gave it a +1. Search operators work the same as before and always will. Google isn't broken, I can guarantee.
Stop trying to find excuses. You don't know how to use a search engine, period. Good thing you stopped explaining Google Search here, 'cause you clearly don't know jack shit about it.

Also, I'm still waiting for you literary analysis on Pirate's posts.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 14, 2012, 10:20:39 PM
That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear:

you mean he should let people use GPUmax for free?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on July 15, 2012, 06:49:00 AM
I see plenty of native english speakers around here who can't tell the difference between THERE, THEIR and THEY'RE... and it's just a little example as there are much more.

Don't you mean many more?  ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on July 15, 2012, 09:28:30 AM
I see plenty of native english speakers around here who can't tell the difference between THERE, THEIR and THEY'RE... and it's just a little example as there are much more.

Don't you mean many more?  ;)

Oh crap...
But I haz excuze. Me not native-engrish.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on July 15, 2012, 07:29:32 PM
Turns out, GPUmax deposits are sent to BS&T. That makes this flow almost worthless, information wise, and the audit of BS&T even more impossible.

That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear: your coins are perfectly laundered, in ALL respects. However, this hasn't made enough income for Pirate to pay for BS&T, not by a long shot.

You get freshly minted coins directly from a pool. How could they be anything less than perfectly laundered? Are you stating the obvious here or am I missing something?

With the possibility of P using GPUMax as a customer to launder BS&T coins to take off with this boils down to the question of how much hashpower there is on GPUMax / how much coins go through GPUMax.

Maged, would it be possible to deduct GPUMax "active" throughput from the 10% fees?





Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 15, 2012, 08:40:51 PM
You get freshly minted coins directly from a pool. How could they be anything less than perfectly laundered? Are you stating the obvious here or am I missing something?

No, you don't.  The only pool that pays out 'freshly minted' coins that I know of, is eligius, and even then, if its been a while since a block, luke-jr will push out a manual pay and those aren't newly mined.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on July 15, 2012, 09:20:52 PM
You get freshly minted coins directly from a pool. How could they be anything less than perfectly laundered? Are you stating the obvious here or am I missing something?

No, you don't.  The only pool that pays out 'freshly minted' coins that I know of, is eligius, and even then, if its been a while since a block, luke-jr will push out a manual pay and those aren't newly mined.


now that I think of it, it was only an assumption the pools (other than eligius) pay out directly from the mined blocks. Still, there should not be any connection to the coins used to purchase the shares unless the pool operator is invested in bs&t :D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on July 16, 2012, 03:04:48 PM
That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear:

you mean he should let people use GPUmax for free?
On the contrary, I'm saying that how well GPUmax can clean coins makes it worth the fee. If anything, he could raise the fee.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on July 16, 2012, 03:22:32 PM
Turns out, GPUmax deposits are sent to BS&T. That makes this flow almost worthless, information wise, and the audit of BS&T even more impossible.

That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear: your coins are perfectly laundered, in ALL respects. However, this hasn't made enough income for Pirate to pay for BS&T, not by a long shot.

You get freshly minted coins directly from a pool. How could they be anything less than perfectly laundered? Are you stating the obvious here or am I missing something?
Yes, you are. If we pretend that the purchases were sent directly to GPUmax, you could potentially correlate that with what was mined by knowing when the deposit was made, and how big the deposit was. By adding BS&T, though, it becomes impossible to know whether the funds were sent to BS&T or GPUmax. You'll still know the when (after a few days when you can identify that the coins were sent to a BS&T deposit address) and how much, true, but you won't know if the coins were immediately withdrawn or sent to GPUmax. It adds uncertainty. Additionally, it keeps the miners happy because they won't likely end up with tainted coins - instead receiving BS&T coins (remember that Pirate only accepts direct deposits from highly respected members?).

With the possibility of P using GPUMax as a customer to launder BS&T coins to take off with this boils down to the question of how much hashpower there is on GPUMax / how much coins go through GPUMax.

Maged, would it be possible to deduct GPUMax "active" throughput from the 10% fees?
Yes, and just like how anybody could potentially use GPUmax to launder coins, so can Pirate. Remember, GPUmax is profitable, but it cannot sustain BS&T alone.

As for finding out how much Pirate has personally laundered, that's impossible. He could easily correlate any BS&T deposit with his own laundering, making it appear as if the deposit was actually a GPUmax purchase from the outside.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on July 16, 2012, 04:12:57 PM
Good news everyone! Pirate has 40k more BTC to launder!
http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/23537189.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on July 16, 2012, 04:14:07 PM
There are a total of about 50 * 6 * 24 = 7,200 BTC made per day.

If GPUMAX was leasing 24/7 and
If GPUMAX got every coin made and
If you have say 100,000 coins to launder then

100,000 / 7,200 = 14 days

But GPUMAX does not lease shares 24/7 (not even close) and
GPUMAX does not get all the coins every day (not even close).

For example, if we assume GPUMAX represents 10% of the network 10% of the time (for an average of 72 coints per day) then it would take 1,400 days.

My point is that as a laundry, GPUMAX is too slow.

Well, some are estimating he's got 300k.  I'd say the GPUMAX estimates are low, so let's go 25% of the network, 25% of the time.  So 450 clean coins a day.

300,000 / 450 = 666 days.

It must be a sign.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on July 16, 2012, 06:26:18 PM
Turns out, GPUmax deposits are sent to BS&T. That makes this flow almost worthless, information wise, and the audit of BS&T even more impossible.

That being said, the reason for the 10% fee on using GPUmax is now absolutely clear: your coins are perfectly laundered, in ALL respects. However, this hasn't made enough income for Pirate to pay for BS&T, not by a long shot.

You get freshly minted coins directly from a pool. How could they be anything less than perfectly laundered? Are you stating the obvious here or am I missing something?
Yes, you are. If we pretend that the purchases were sent directly to GPUmax, you could potentially correlate that with what was mined by knowing when the deposit was made, and how big the deposit was. By adding BS&T, though, it becomes impossible to know whether the funds were sent to BS&T or GPUmax. You'll still know the when (after a few days when you can identify that the coins were sent to a BS&T deposit address) and how much, true, but you won't know if the coins were immediately withdrawn or sent to GPUmax. It adds uncertainty. Additionally, it keeps the miners happy because they won't likely end up with tainted coins - instead receiving BS&T coins (remember that Pirate only accepts direct deposits from highly respected members?).

With the possibility of P using GPUMax as a customer to launder BS&T coins to take off with this boils down to the question of how much hashpower there is on GPUMax / how much coins go through GPUMax.

Maged, would it be possible to deduct GPUMax "active" throughput from the 10% fees?
Yes, and just like how anybody could potentially use GPUmax to launder coins, so can Pirate. Remember, GPUmax is profitable, but it cannot sustain BS&T alone.

As for finding out how much Pirate has personally laundered, that's impossible. He could easily correlate any BS&T deposit with his own laundering, making it appear as if the deposit was actually a GPUmax purchase from the outside.

thanks for explaining.

I asked some of the big pool operators for their opinion of the gpumax hashrate. only two have responded so far but it seems to be around 1000-3000gh.

edit: probably towards the lower end of that range




Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: waltmarkers on July 17, 2012, 01:42:11 AM
I wonder if this caught pirate in USD or coin? This run today is exactly the short term volatility pirate was talking about. Hopefully since he just paid interest he hadn't sold coin already....


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on July 17, 2012, 01:47:17 AM
I wonder if this caught pirate in USD or coin? This run today is exactly the short term volatility pirate was talking about. Hopefully since he just paid interest he hadn't sold coin already....
It's probably him, buying coins for a payout. ;D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 17, 2012, 11:01:50 AM
Good news everyone! Pirate has 40k more BTC to launder!

Can someone please explain this to me? Where does that number come from?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on July 17, 2012, 11:04:51 AM
I wonder if this caught pirate in USD or coin? This run today is exactly the short term volatility pirate was talking about. Hopefully since he just paid interest he hadn't sold coin already....
It's probably him, buying coins for a payout. ;D

he sure said it was him:

Bid wall has disappeared

<pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play.  IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!

it's easy to get the impression that this is where he makes all the profits. but I looked into it a little and I don't think you can make enough by gaming the markets - even with his amount of coins. at least not on a regular basis. Also there was very little volatility for a long time.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitdragon on July 17, 2012, 11:23:54 AM
the horse only dabbles in trading apparently :)
but with whose coins though?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on July 17, 2012, 11:40:00 AM
he never claimed to make money trading, he claimed to use the coins to stabilize the markets so he can sell at a set price. clearly is was showing what could happen if the price was not stable.

If you want to sell and the price has risen, you are happy to sell at the higher price and don't want any stabilization. In fact, your selling would help to stabilize the market price.

If the price has gone down, then what? You first buy to raise the market price, then you sell more than you bought, and that should make you more money?

Great trick! Have you ever tried it? Or what exactly did you mean?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: elux on July 17, 2012, 01:58:55 PM
he sure said it was him:
Bid wall has disappeared
<pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play.  IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready!


I'm going through the #bitcoin chatlog from yesterday.

Quote
04:31 <pirateat40> i take full responsibility.
04:39 <pirateat40> crashed is != corrected.
04:42 <pirateat40> we don't want another bubble and my charts/triggers were screaming at me.

There's a lot more. But it's a long and chaotic story, wherein the pirate causes a storm in the market.

He makes it quite clear through word and action that he alone was behind yesterday's crazyness.

This was not natural, and had nothing to do with KimDotCom.

Protip:
Quote
[2012-07-17 05:13:52] <pirateat40> I'm just going to say this time.... If you panic buy, you're going to lose.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on July 17, 2012, 02:32:35 PM
Yes, it is pretty obvious Pirate sold, and it's almost certain he's now "short".

The timing of the sell was good, however, the execution was excessively flashy. Why cause a downspike to 7.5, down to which we already have 25k BTC liquidity again? Sentiment is nowhere near a panic. I don't have an explanation why he should do this, regardless of legitimacy.

Then again, market movements around Pirate rarely make sense to me. No big news in the end. ???


Title: Has Pirate lost his bet now?
Post by: Mageant on August 15, 2012, 09:34:46 AM
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.

"New Rates Effective 8.20.2012":
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0

But the "bet agreement" says:

Quote
BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.

AFAIK he did not announce these new rates on 7.21.2012 or earlier.

I just noticed this yesterday.

That means he changed the rates within less than 30 days after anouncing them. Which is a clear violation of the "bet agreement".


Title: Re: Has Pirate lost his bet now?
Post by: organofcorti on August 15, 2012, 09:50:20 AM
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.

"New Rates Effective 8.20.2012":
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0

But the "bet agreement" says:

Quote
BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.

AFAIK he did not announce these new rates on 7.21.2012 or earlier.

I just noticed this yesterday.

That means he changed the rates within less than 30 days after anouncing them. Which is a clear violation of the "bet agreement".


Hey Vandroiy, I understand you'll be coming into a large amount of btc shortly. I have an investment opportunity you may be interested in ...


Title: Re: Has Pirate lost his bet now?
Post by: myrkul on August 15, 2012, 09:53:05 AM
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.

"New Rates Effective 8.20.2012":
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0

But the "bet agreement" says:

Quote
BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.

AFAIK he did not announce these new rates on 7.21.2012 or earlier.

I just noticed this yesterday.

That means he changed the rates within less than 30 days after announcing them. Which is a clear violation of the "bet agreement".


Whoops!


Title: Re: Has Pirate lost his bet now?
Post by: elux on August 15, 2012, 09:54:26 AM
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.


===Change in BTCST ToS===

BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.


Yep, well, this bet ended even quicker than I had expected.

Nanotube is the final arbiter, but this seems like a clear cut win to Vandroiy, according to Pirate's own terms.

If Pirate cares, (and wants to) could he salvage the bet for now
by retracting the previous announcement, and issuing a new one with proper 30 day notice,
before the lower rates are put into effect?

If not: Congrats to Vandroiy on his 5000 BTC (64000 USD) winnings!

Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate? :)


Title: Re: Has Pirate lost his bet now?
Post by: Stephen Gornick on August 15, 2012, 09:56:44 AM
Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate? :)

It is almost like it was planned:

  • Don’t concede the wager and chance the outcome of Aug 14th.


Title: Re: Has Pirate lost his bet now?
Post by: myrkul on August 15, 2012, 10:03:22 AM
Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate? :)

It is almost like it was planned:

  • Don’t concede the wager and chance the outcome of Aug 14th.

Ah! There it is. I knew that was a plea to let him out of the bet before he lost it.


Title: Re: Has Pirate lost his bet now?
Post by: Bitcoin Oz on August 15, 2012, 10:22:45 AM
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.


===Change in BTCST ToS===

BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.


Yep, well, this bet ended even quicker than I had expected.

Nanotube is the final arbiter, but this seems like a clear cut win to Vandroiy, according to Pirate's own terms.

If Pirate cares, (and wants to) could he salvage the bet for now
by retracting the previous announcement, and issuing a new one with proper 30 day notice,
before the lower rates before the lower rates are put into effect?

If not: Congrats to Vandroiy on his 5000 BTC (64000 USD) winnings!

Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate? :)


 Vandroiy won the bet because pirate changed the terms it doesnt matter if he changes them back.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bigbox on August 15, 2012, 10:25:55 AM
Since the terms are not scheduled to change until the 20th, it means the terms haven't changed yet. Vandroiy only wins if Pirate actually executes the changes with fewer than 30 days notice. Pirate can still maintain the bet by moving the change 30 days into the future.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on August 15, 2012, 10:52:48 AM
Agreed, as long as its not put into effect pirate has another 10 days left to avoid a cut in his profit margins by 5000 BTC....

Wasn´t  it right that  he wanted to avoid by changing terms?? ;)


Title: Re: Has Pirate lost his bet now?
Post by: coin_toss on August 15, 2012, 10:58:53 AM
It appears to me Pirate has lost his bet with Vandroiy now.


===Change in BTCST ToS===

BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days.


Yep, well, this bet ended even quicker than I had expected.

Nanotube is the final arbiter, but this seems like a clear cut win to Vandroiy, according to Pirate's own terms.

If Pirate cares, (and wants to) could he salvage the bet for now
by retracting the previous announcement, and issuing a new one with proper 30 day notice,
before the lower rates before the lower rates are put into effect?

If not: Congrats to Vandroiy on his 5000 BTC (64000 USD) winnings!

Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate? :)


 Vandroiy won the bet because pirate changed the terms it doesnt matter if he changes them back.

I'm afraid you are mistaken. Pirate will lose the bet only if he changes the terms without the required notice - not if he announces a future change of terms without the required notice. The new terms do not come into effect until 8.20.2012 - therefore the terms have not yet changed. If the terms were in effect now, pirate's depositors would already be receiving the lower rate of interest, which clearly they are not.


Title: Re: Has Pirate lost his bet now?
Post by: ErebusBat on August 15, 2012, 12:07:07 PM
Does anyone want to make a statement? Van, nano, pirate? :)

It is almost like it was planned:

  • Don’t concede the wager and chance the outcome of Aug 14th.

Ah! There it is. I knew that was a plea to let him out of the bet before he lost it.

That doesn't make any sense though, at that time pirate had the opportunity to announce the changes. Why wait?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: vampire on August 15, 2012, 12:21:43 PM
In BTCST ToS, it says the rates can be changed at any times. Pirate didn't change his ToS.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Bitcoin Oz on August 15, 2012, 12:26:19 PM
In BTCST ToS, it says the rates can be changed at any times. Pirate didn't change his ToS.



The bet says the rates not the TOS. If the rates change with less than 30 days notice he loses.

I guess we wait to see when the rates actually change before calling it.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: vampire on August 15, 2012, 12:28:53 PM
In BTCST ToS, it says the rates can be changed at any times. Pirate didn't change his ToS.



The bet says the rates not the TOS. If the rates change with less than 30 days notice he loses.

I guess we wait to see when the rates actually change before calling it.

It says ToS. It's all about interpretation, it is confusing.

If pirate changed ToS 30 days ago: I can change rates at any time. Does it override the bet? Looks like to me.

Quote
BTCST has the right to change the terms of its outstanding deposits at any time, as long as there is advance notice of at least 30 calendar days. Such changes may include changes in promised interest rates (as long as interest rates do not go below zero), changes in interest disbursement frequency (not to exceed 1 month intervals), interest tiers, forced withdrawals. Such changes shall not be construed to be a default event.

The event of dissolution of the BTCST business and return of all owed funds to all account holders, also shall not be construed as a default event.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on August 15, 2012, 12:31:47 PM
Somehow I wonder if this is what pirate does for entertainment.  Funer than craps.  Get an argument ready then gamble on what the outcome would be.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 15, 2012, 03:12:52 PM
Agreed, as long as its not put into effect pirate has another 10 days left to avoid a cut in his profit margins by 5000 BTC....

It doesn't cut into his profit. Why should the pirate even think about a bet he intended to lose all along?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 15, 2012, 03:24:42 PM
Agreed, as long as its not put into effect pirate has another 10 days left to avoid a cut in his profit margins by 5000 BTC....

It doesn't cut into his profit. Why should the pirate even think about a bet he intended to lose all along?

How do you know what pirate's intentions are/were?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 15, 2012, 03:53:37 PM
Agreed, as long as its not put into effect pirate has another 10 days left to avoid a cut in his profit margins by 5000 BTC....

It doesn't cut into his profit. Why should the pirate even think about a bet he intended to lose all along?

How do you know what pirate's intentions are/were?

Because they are so obvious.

They may not be obvious to someone who believes he can get rich by handing over his money to some anonymous guy who promises 3,300% interest, but they are obvious to me and to you. We just have opposite intentions. I would like to see you serve a jail term in the cell next to pirateat40.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 15, 2012, 03:54:44 PM
Agreed, as long as its not put into effect pirate has another 10 days left to avoid a cut in his profit margins by 5000 BTC....

It doesn't cut into his profit. Why should the pirate even think about a bet he intended to lose all along?

How do you know what pirate's intentions are/were?

Because they are so obvious.

They may not be obvious to someone who believes he can get rich by handing over his money to some anonymous guy who promises 3,300% interest, but they are obvious to me and to you. We just have opposite intentions. I would like to see you serve a jail term in the cell next to pirateat40.

lulz


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on August 15, 2012, 04:16:13 PM
Agreed, as long as its not put into effect pirate has another 10 days left to avoid a cut in his profit margins by 5000 BTC....

It doesn't cut into his profit. Why should the pirate even think about a bet he intended to lose all along?

How do you know what pirate's intentions are/were?

Because they are so obvious.

They may not be obvious to someone who believes he can get rich by handing over his money to some anonymous guy who promises 3,300% interest, but they are obvious to me and to you. We just have opposite intentions. I would like to see you serve a jail term in the cell next to pirateat40.
Why is everyone on about prison?  Why do we protect stupid people?  Why don't we throw them into prison?  If you put more money than you can afford to lose into ANY investment then you are stupid, and by my new logic should be in prison.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vladimir on August 15, 2012, 04:20:41 PM
Why is everyone on about prison?  Why do we protect stupid people?  Why don't we throw them into prison?  If you put more money than you can afford to lose into ANY investment then you are stupid, and by my new logic should be in prison.

Why don't we also throw weak people in jail too while we are at it? Damn old lady got mugged by a punk. Stupid bitch had 80 years to train hapkimudo or something (like this old man http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiSltVex840) and she has not. Totally her fault, rigth?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: URSAY on August 15, 2012, 04:26:45 PM
Funny how people talk so much but won't bet on it...

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=537


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nanotube on August 15, 2012, 04:28:01 PM
FYI, here is my interpretation.

Since the existing ToS includes the provision for pirate's ability to change interest rates "with notice", this latest change in interest rates does not violate the terms of the bet contract, even though it did not itself have a 30 day notice. The term "interest rates" was only used as an example of terms that may change in ToS; the list of examples was not intended to be either exhaustive or necessarily-inclusive. The point of the ToS changes section and advance notice thereof, was to make sure that users are given ample notice for any unexpected material changes.

For your easy reference, link to bet contract:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013589#msg1013589


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 15, 2012, 04:29:45 PM
Funny how people talk so much but won't bet on it...

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=537

Well, anyone that doesn't believe pirate will default would get paid better to invest in him directly.  Anyone that believes he will default won't have anyone to counter bet against.  That being said, the nays outweigh the yeas by 8:1.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 15, 2012, 04:31:07 PM
FYI, here is my interpretation.

Since the existing ToS includes the provision for pirate's ability to change interest rates "with notice", this latest change in interest rates does not violate the terms of the bet contract, even though it did not itself have a 30 day notice. The term "interest rates" was only used as an example of terms that may change in ToS; the list of examples was not intended to be either exhaustive or necessarily-inclusive. The point of the ToS changes section and advance notice thereof, was to make sure that users are given ample notice for any unexpected material changes.

For your easy reference, link to bet contract:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013589#msg1013589

witnessed.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Maged on August 15, 2012, 06:18:33 PM
FYI, here is my interpretation.

Since the existing ToS includes the provision for pirate's ability to change interest rates "with notice", this latest change in interest rates does not violate the terms of the bet contract, even though it did not itself have a 30 day notice. The term "interest rates" was only used as an example of terms that may change in ToS; the list of examples was not intended to be either exhaustive or necessarily-inclusive. The point of the ToS changes section and advance notice thereof, was to make sure that users are given ample notice for any unexpected material changes.

For your easy reference, link to bet contract:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013589#msg1013589
witnessed. (from team ponzi, just to be fair)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 15, 2012, 06:19:53 PM
witnessed. (from team ponzi, just to be fair)

Hey, I thought we were being impartial? ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 15, 2012, 06:32:59 PM
Funny how people talk so much but won't bet on it...

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=537

This bet is a hundred times heavier:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: John (John K.) on August 15, 2012, 06:42:32 PM
FYI, here is my interpretation.

Since the existing ToS includes the provision for pirate's ability to change interest rates "with notice", this latest change in interest rates does not violate the terms of the bet contract, even though it did not itself have a 30 day notice. The term "interest rates" was only used as an example of terms that may change in ToS; the list of examples was not intended to be either exhaustive or necessarily-inclusive. The point of the ToS changes section and advance notice thereof, was to make sure that users are given ample notice for any unexpected material changes.

For your easy reference, link to bet contract:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013589#msg1013589
Witnessed again, from team impartial.  ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 15, 2012, 06:44:55 PM
FYI, here is my interpretation.

Since the existing ToS includes the provision for pirate's ability to change interest rates "with notice", this latest change in interest rates does not violate the terms of the bet contract, even though it did not itself have a 30 day notice. The term "interest rates" was only used as an example of terms that may change in ToS; the list of examples was not intended to be either exhaustive or necessarily-inclusive. The point of the ToS changes section and advance notice thereof, was to make sure that users are given ample notice for any unexpected material changes.

For your easy reference, link to bet contract:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013589#msg1013589

Yes, makes perfect sense. Thanks!

Interest rate changes will not change the outcome of the bet anyway, because if pirateat40 lowered the rates as far as needed to make them believable, most of his "investors" would attempt to withdraw their money, which would end any Ponzi scheme.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Francesco on August 17, 2012, 09:26:02 PM
BTCS&T closing, orderly shutdown promised starting monday.

It was about time. 10.000 BTC are just about to find a new home  :)

And the market to become a bit more sane, I hope!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Hecate on August 17, 2012, 09:38:35 PM
If you ask me for my guess:
http://i45.tinypic.com/33beqac.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: stick_theman on August 17, 2012, 10:48:36 PM
If you ask me for my guess:


LOL  Would be awesome if you add a caption or a meme.  hahaha


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on August 17, 2012, 11:20:13 PM
So if Pirate does indeed close operations in an orderly fashion the bets he will have won will make a nice retirement gift.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dlasher on August 18, 2012, 02:58:31 AM
So if Pirate does indeed close operations in an orderly fashion the bets he will have won will make a nice retirement gift.

Quote
The event of dissolution of the BTCST business and return of all owed funds to all account holders, also shall not be construed as a default event.



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on August 18, 2012, 03:07:03 AM
So if Pirate does indeed close operations in an orderly fashion the bets he will have won will make a nice retirement gift.

Quote
The event of dissolution of the BTCST business and return of all owed funds to all account holders, also shall not be construed as a default event.



Exactly.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Fluttershy on August 19, 2012, 04:23:05 AM
If you ask me for my guess:
http://i45.tinypic.com/33beqac.jpg
Thanks for letting me know you're devoid of humor and needs to be ignored.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on August 19, 2012, 04:31:19 AM
And thank you for doing the same.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: coin_toss on August 19, 2012, 08:28:51 AM
Vandroiy is suspiciously quiet these last couple days. :D I think he is sweating buckets, as he has finally figured out what is going on.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 19, 2012, 03:23:48 PM
Vandroiy is suspiciously quiet these last couple days. :D I think he is sweating buckets, as he has finally figured out what is going on.

Why would he be sweating if neither party is keeping the winnings?  ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Hecate on August 19, 2012, 04:47:17 PM
Thanks for letting me know you're devoid of humor and needs to be ignored.
You should change your avatar to
http://i49.tinypic.com/2zojldy.jpg
because i think you misunderstood the character you intend to display completely. But hey, at least you put the entire picture into the thread again.

Vandroiy is suspiciously quiet these last couple days. :D I think he is sweating buckets, as he has finally figured out what is going on.
Why sweat when he is winning almost a year early? Seems like a good thing.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on August 19, 2012, 08:17:08 PM
Vandroiy is suspiciously quiet these last couple days. :D I think he is sweating buckets, as he has finally figured out what is going on.

Why would he be sweating if neither party is keeping the winnings?  ::)

He goes on vacation, only coming back for settling the bet in september...he even pretends not to be much interested in the various reason for delaying the dissolution
of BCST. (watch thread of how to recognize a ponzi)

Me is very fascinated by the funny fireworks right to begin :D

Cheers Zyk

P:S: could someone explain to me how payout of betsofbitcoin is calculated in the end?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 19, 2012, 11:13:09 PM
If anyone is positive that Pirate is a ponzi/scam, please see this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 20, 2012, 07:45:31 AM
Vandroiy is suspiciously quiet these last couple days. :D I think he is sweating buckets, as he has finally figured out what is going on.

Why would he be sweating if neither party is keeping the winnings?  ::)

He goes on vacation, only coming back for settling the bet in september...he even pretends not to be much interested in the various reason for delaying the dissolution
of BCST. (watch thread of how to recognize a ponzi)

Me is very fascinated by the funny fireworks right to begin :D


Why should Vandroiy be sweating if he has always been perfectly sure he will win the bet? I can assure you, he is not sweating at all.

I think the "fireworks" will not be very funny. Those with a brain knew all along what will happen, and the others will lose their money and disappear from the bitcoin scene, I hope. That is the only way to get rid of all those scams.

I do hope, however, that the worst scammers will be caught and punished. After all, we have a civilization to defend. :) If that does not happen, then we would be assured once more that the world is a madhouse.

Check also: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433

Note also that we are just watching another shakeout in the bitcoin market, which will again become more stable after this, fortunately.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on August 20, 2012, 01:19:52 PM
Vandroiy is suspiciously quiet these last couple days. :D I think he is sweating buckets, as he has finally figured out what is going on.

Why would he be sweating if neither party is keeping the winnings?  ::)

He goes on vacation, only coming back for settling the bet in september...he even pretends not to be much interested in the various reason for delaying the dissolution
of BCST. (watch thread of how to recognize a ponzi)

Me is very fascinated by the funny fireworks right to begin :D


Why should Vandroiy be sweating if he has always been perfectly sure he will win the bet? I can assure you, he is not sweating at all.

I think the "fireworks" will not be very funny. Those with a brain knew all along what will happen, and the others will lose their money and disappear from the bitcoin scene, I hope. That is the only way to get rid of all those scams.




I do hope, however, that the worst scammers will be caught and punished. After all, we have a civilization to defend. :) If that does not happen, then we would be assured once more that the world is a madhouse.

Check also: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433

Note also that we are just watching another shakeout in the bitcoin market, which will again become more stable after this, fortunately.


Even Patrick Hernatt thinks that pirate was doing a viable buiseness, 7 % weekly return on your capital is to be attained selling stuff for example while working...

of course pirate has not the stature to stay at the helm of bitcoin community even as he was and is an fantastic actor, are new visions now breeded or will

the angloamerican spirit to conquer by sword and speculation be replaced with some visionarys?

Still i don´t understand how the payouts of betsofbitcoin are settled...no concrete info in there.....

Cheers Zyk


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zebedee on August 20, 2012, 01:52:53 PM
Agreed, as long as its not put into effect pirate has another 10 days left to avoid a cut in his profit margins by 5000 BTC....

It doesn't cut into his profit. Why should the pirate even think about a bet he intended to lose all along?

How do you know what pirate's intentions are/were?

Because they are so obvious.

They may not be obvious to someone who believes he can get rich by handing over his money to some anonymous guy who promises 3,300% interest, but they are obvious to me and to you. We just have opposite intentions. I would like to see you serve a jail term in the cell next to pirateat40.

I don't see you in Matthew Wright's thread, making easy money.  Why is that?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on August 20, 2012, 02:03:07 PM
Agreed, as long as its not put into effect pirate has another 10 days left to avoid a cut in his profit margins by 5000 BTC....

It doesn't cut into his profit. Why should the pirate even think about a bet he intended to lose all along?

How do you know what pirate's intentions are/were?

Because they are so obvious.

They may not be obvious to someone who believes he can get rich by handing over his money to some anonymous guy who promises 3,300% interest, but they are obvious to me and to you. We just have opposite intentions. I would like to see you serve a jail term in the cell next to pirateat40.

I don't see you in Matthew Wright's thread, making easy money.  Why is that?

Hard to bet when you have no money you can lose.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 20, 2012, 02:05:25 PM
I don't see you in Matthew Wright's thread, making easy money.  Why is that?

Is that the one who offers bets, but only up to BTC100?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on August 20, 2012, 02:17:36 PM
Bah! I'm reporting the last 27 pages for being off topic.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: stick_theman on August 20, 2012, 02:33:52 PM
Any thread updates Pirate's payback activities?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rdponticelli on August 20, 2012, 02:47:28 PM
Bah! I'm reporting the last 27 pages for being off topic.

Maybe is just the OP the one which is off topic ;D

By the way, hopelessly trying to bring the thing back on rail again, I liked the securities idea, I may have bought some of those ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rdponticelli on August 20, 2012, 02:52:05 PM
Any thread updates Pirate's payback activities?

You may try this one... (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101942.0)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bigasic on August 21, 2012, 02:01:02 AM
So, do I understand this right? it doesn't matter who wins? the 10k coins are going charity, regardless, right?

If so, I nominate that some of funds get donated to the Family Literacy Centers, LLC Its a registered non-profit organization/charity that donates time and money to those that need help with literacy. (with the help of computer programs and one-on-one tutors). www.flcinc.org

I donate a lot of my time to this organization, I think its a worthwhile cause..

Thanks,

AR


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 21, 2012, 06:38:45 AM
So, do I understand this right? it doesn't matter who wins? the 10k coins are going charity, regardless, right?

Nope, just the opposite. Nothing will go to any charity, under any circumstances.

Pirate said he would donate, but he also always knew he would never win this bet, so no charity there. The whole bet was a public relations maneuver by pirateat40. Vandroiy tricked him into offering the bet, and pirateat40 offered it to avoid losing face. He offered it also, because he did not believe that anybody would stand up against him with any significant bitcoin amount. He was mistaken and had to pay.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: farfiman on August 21, 2012, 06:43:40 AM
So, do I understand this right? it doesn't matter who wins? the 10k coins are going charity, regardless, right?

Nope, just the opposite. Nothing will go to any charity, under any circumstances.

Pirate said he would donate, but he also always knew he would never win this bet, so no charity there. The whole bet was a public relations maneuver by pirateat40. Vandroiy tricked him into offering the bet, and pirateat40 offered it to avoid losing face. He offered it also, because he did not believe that anybody would stand up against him with any significant bitcoin amount. He was mistaken and had to pay.

just saving this.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 21, 2012, 06:52:41 AM
That's a silly bet then. My bet is way better.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zorgberg on August 21, 2012, 04:47:14 PM
Pirate could still win if he pays out to all investors from my understanding of the terms. 


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: piotr_n on August 21, 2012, 05:01:20 PM
@Matthew, something tells me that you have cut a deal with Pirate before staring this topic.
The 10k is not from you - I'm betting it's something he gave you already, maybe as a pre-paid from your deposit... Am I right?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 21, 2012, 05:04:12 PM
@Matthew, something tells me that you have cut a deal with Pirate before staring this topic...
Am I right?

I did not start this topic and I have not cut any deals with pirate. I am not in bed with pirate. I do not know pirate. I have never talked to him on the phone even, nor have I ever met him. I have no idea what he looks like or if Trenden Shavers is in fact his real name or not. I do not know if anyone in the community even knows his phone number, much less if it's an anonymous line. I do not know what he is doing behind the scenes. For the last time, my bet is one of faith. I am prepared to lose and be wrong, but the mere act of making the bet sets a precedent for loud mouthed dipshits in this community to finally back their "expert opinions" with more than an anonymous throwaway sockpuppet reputation. It should cost money to make baseless accusations, that's why defamation laws were created. Go team!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: piotr_n on August 21, 2012, 05:07:25 PM
@Matthew, something tells me that you have cut a deal with Pirate before staring this topic...
Am I right?

I did not start this topic and I have not cut any deals with pirate. I am not in bed with pirate. I do not know pirate. I have never talked to him on the phone even, nor have I ever met him. I have no idea what he looks like or if Trenden Shavers is in fact his real name or not. I do not know if anyone in the community even knows his phone number, much less if it's an anonymous line. I do not know what he is doing behind the scenes. For the last time, my bet is one of faith. I am prepared to lose and be wrong, but the mere act of making the bet sets a precedent for loud mouthed dipshits in this community to finally back their "expert opinions" with more than an anonymous throwaway sockpuppet reputation. It should cost money to make baseless accusations, that's why defamation laws were created. Go team!
I don't believe anything you've said :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 21, 2012, 05:07:49 PM
It should cost money to make baseless accusations, that's why defamation laws were created.

+1


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: boonies4u on August 21, 2012, 05:09:44 PM
It should cost money to make baseless accusations, that's why defamation laws were created.

+1

Why would I pay someone to make a throwaway account to make baseless accusations, when I can do it for free by myself? :P


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 21, 2012, 06:17:00 PM
@Matthew, something tells me that you have cut a deal with Pirate before staring this topic...
Am I right?

I did not start this topic and I have not cut any deals with pirate. I am not in bed with pirate. I do not know pirate. I have never talked to him on the phone even, nor have I ever met him. I have no idea what he looks like or if Trenden Shavers is in fact his real name or not. I do not know if anyone in the community even knows his phone number, much less if it's an anonymous line. I do not know what he is doing behind the scenes. For the last time, my bet is one of faith. I am prepared to lose and be wrong, but the mere act of making the bet sets a precedent for loud mouthed dipshits in this community to finally back their "expert opinions" with more than an anonymous throwaway sockpuppet reputation. It should cost money to make baseless accusations, that's why defamation laws were created. Go team!
I don't believe anything you've said :)

Then let's bet that you're wrong. How much do you want to wager?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: piotr_n on August 21, 2012, 06:25:34 PM
@Matthew, something tells me that you have cut a deal with Pirate before staring this topic...
Am I right?

I did not start this topic and I have not cut any deals with pirate. I am not in bed with pirate. I do not know pirate. I have never talked to him on the phone even, nor have I ever met him. I have no idea what he looks like or if Trenden Shavers is in fact his real name or not. I do not know if anyone in the community even knows his phone number, much less if it's an anonymous line. I do not know what he is doing behind the scenes. For the last time, my bet is one of faith. I am prepared to lose and be wrong, but the mere act of making the bet sets a precedent for loud mouthed dipshits in this community to finally back their "expert opinions" with more than an anonymous throwaway sockpuppet reputation. It should cost money to make baseless accusations, that's why defamation laws were created. Go team!
I don't believe anything you've said :)

Then let's bet that you're wrong. How much do you want to wager?
So you just like gambling high stakes - don't matter the subject?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 21, 2012, 06:38:31 PM
@Matthew, something tells me that you have cut a deal with Pirate before staring this topic...
Am I right?

I did not start this topic and I have not cut any deals with pirate. I am not in bed with pirate. I do not know pirate. I have never talked to him on the phone even, nor have I ever met him. I have no idea what he looks like or if Trenden Shavers is in fact his real name or not. I do not know if anyone in the community even knows his phone number, much less if it's an anonymous line. I do not know what he is doing behind the scenes. For the last time, my bet is one of faith. I am prepared to lose and be wrong, but the mere act of making the bet sets a precedent for loud mouthed dipshits in this community to finally back their "expert opinions" with more than an anonymous throwaway sockpuppet reputation. It should cost money to make baseless accusations, that's why defamation laws were created. Go team!
I don't believe anything you've said :)

Then let's bet that you're wrong. How much do you want to wager?
So you just like gambling high stakes - don't matter the subject?

You just like making baseless accusations, don't matter the evidence?

It's not about betting, it's about backing up your accusations. Make the bet if you're sure of it.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: piotr_n on August 21, 2012, 07:00:34 PM
You just like making baseless accusations, don't matter the evidence?

It's not about betting, it's about backing up your accusations. Make the bet if you're sure of it.
I'm not making accusations, just asking.
Is it an accusations every time I ask?

So it comes that you are so sure about your interest in this legendary lesson?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 21, 2012, 07:04:18 PM
You just like making baseless accusations, don't matter the evidence?

It's not about betting, it's about backing up your accusations. Make the bet if you're sure of it.
I'm not making accusations, just asking.
Is it an accusations every time I ask?

So it comes that you are so sure about your interest in this legendary lesson?

Sorry, it's time for action now. I feel answering any more questions here is just wasting my time.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: piotr_n on August 21, 2012, 07:06:00 PM
OK.
But while waiting for more disbelievers, let me just add that I'm not going to bet. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 21, 2012, 07:07:18 PM
OK.
But while waiting for more disbelievers, let me just add that I'm not going to bet. :)

hehe. Fair enough.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nimda on August 21, 2012, 08:23:29 PM
Let's all just calm down, hug, keep our money far from our mouth and continue to spread FUD :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: piotr_n on August 21, 2012, 08:25:27 PM
yeah. or have a life for a change.. :P


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: odolvlobo on August 22, 2012, 03:04:45 AM
If you lost money in pirate's ponzi scheme, you can contact the Collin County District Attorney Special Prosecution Division. They deal with financial fraud. Pirate (aka pirateat40) is Trendon Shavers, 30, of McKinney, Texas.

Pirate's associates are Zach Nakaska and Michael Thalasinos.

Contact info:

John L. Schomburger, 1st Assistant District Attorney and Chief of Special Prosecution Division
Ext. 3610
(972) 548-4323
(972) 424-1460 (metro)
(214) 491-4860 (fax)

2100 Bloomdale Road, Suite 100
McKinney, TX 75071

jschomburger@co.collin.tx.us


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: axus on August 22, 2012, 03:08:13 AM
Ha ha!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 22, 2012, 03:23:21 AM
If you lost money in pirate's ponzi scheme, you can contact the Collin County District Attorney Special Prosecution Division. They deal with financial fraud. Pirate (aka pirateat40) is

google infos

Nice job, you know how to use Google. woo


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: odolvlobo on August 22, 2012, 03:43:12 AM
If you lost money in pirate's ponzi scheme, you can contact the Collin County District Attorney Special Prosecution Division. They deal with financial fraud. Pirate (aka pirateat40) is

google infos

Nice job, you know how to use Google. woo

?

And you know English! What's your point?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 22, 2012, 03:46:02 AM
If you lost money in pirate's ponzi scheme, you can contact the Collin County District Attorney Special Prosecution Division. They deal with financial fraud. Pirate (aka pirateat40) is

google infos

Nice job, you know how to use Google. woo

?

And you know English! What's your point?


You're going to call the DA and say what exactly?  "I gave this guy I don't know that I met on the internet a bunch of electronic 'money' and he has been paying me interest.  Over the weekend he announced he was closing.  I think his high rate of return and refusal to reveal his business to me makes him a ponzi but I have no proof.  I know I didn't bother to research before sending him the 'money', but I care now. kthnxbye"


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on August 22, 2012, 04:04:42 AM
If you lost money in pirate's ponzi scheme, you can contact the Collin County District Attorney Special Prosecution Division. They deal with financial fraud. Pirate (aka pirateat40) is

google infos

Nice job, you know how to use Google. woo

?

And you know English! What's your point?


You're going to call the DA and say what exactly?  "I gave this guy I don't know that I met on the internet a bunch of electronic 'money' and he has been paying me interest.  Over the weekend he announced he was closing.  I think his high rate of return and refusal to reveal his business to me makes him a ponzi but I have no proof.  I know I didn't bother to research before sending him the 'money', but I care now. kthnxbye"

If we all stick to this script and call now, he will have dozens of voice mails FORCING him to pay attention when he comes to work tomorrow morning.

Maybe not this exact script...


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: odolvlobo on August 22, 2012, 04:35:05 AM
If you lost money in pirate's ponzi scheme, you can contact the Collin County District Attorney Special Prosecution Division. They deal with financial fraud. Pirate (aka pirateat40) is

google infos

Nice job, you know how to use Google. woo

?

And you know English! What's your point?


You're going to call the DA and say what exactly?  "I gave this guy I don't know that I met on the internet a bunch of electronic 'money' and he has been paying me interest.  Over the weekend he announced he was closing.  I think his high rate of return and refusal to reveal his business to me makes him a ponzi but I have no proof.  I know I didn't bother to research before sending him the 'money', but I care now. kthnxbye"

It's not that difficult:

"There is a guy named Trendon Shavers, who lives in McKinney Texas, that has been running a ponzi scheme since November (or whenever it was). The scheme has finally collapsed, and his has bilked his investors out of around $5 million."

You don't have any sympathy for the people he ripped off, and that's ok. But he has (allegedly) committed a serious crime. People don't need proof to file a complaint. They just need to make the D.A. aware of it, and he will find the proof (if there is any).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 22, 2012, 04:37:42 AM
It's not that difficult:

"There is a guy named Trendon Shavers, who lives in McKinney Texas, that has been running a ponzi scheme since November (or whenever it was). The scheme has finally collapsed, and his has bilked his investors out of around $5 million."

You don't have any sympathy for the people he ripped off, and that's ok. But he has (allegedly) committed a serious crime. People don't need proof to file a complaint. They just need to make the D.A. aware of it, and he will find the proof (if there is any).

They'll ask you how you sent the funds.  You'll say bitcoin. They'll say what? You'll have to prove value.  Then you have to prove you actually sent it.  Then he spends all this time researching and by the time he gets around to it, pirate's already paid people back.  They don't take kindly when you stretch the facts. 


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: odolvlobo on August 22, 2012, 05:11:04 AM
It's not that difficult:

"There is a guy named Trendon Shavers, who lives in McKinney Texas, that has been running a ponzi scheme since November (or whenever it was). The scheme has finally collapsed, and his has bilked his investors out of around $5 million."

You don't have any sympathy for the people he ripped off, and that's ok. But he has (allegedly) committed a serious crime. People don't need proof to file a complaint. They just need to make the D.A. aware of it, and he will find the proof (if there is any).

They'll ask you how you sent the funds.  You'll say bitcoin. They'll say what? You'll have to prove value.  Then you have to prove you actually sent it.  Then he spends all this time researching and by the time he gets around to it, pirate's already paid people back.  They don't take kindly when you stretch the facts. 

No. You are wrong. All it takes is for a few people to contact them and they will investigate.  Anyway, you are contradicting yourself by implying that people are stupid for entrusting their money to a legitimate business.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 22, 2012, 05:13:32 AM
It's not that difficult:

"There is a guy named Trendon Shavers, who lives in McKinney Texas, that has been running a ponzi scheme since November (or whenever it was). The scheme has finally collapsed, and his has bilked his investors out of around $5 million."

You don't have any sympathy for the people he ripped off, and that's ok. But he has (allegedly) committed a serious crime. People don't need proof to file a complaint. They just need to make the D.A. aware of it, and he will find the proof (if there is any).

They'll ask you how you sent the funds.  You'll say bitcoin. They'll say what? You'll have to prove value.  Then you have to prove you actually sent it.  Then he spends all this time researching and by the time he gets around to it, pirate's already paid people back.  They don't take kindly when you stretch the facts. 

No. You are wrong. All it takes is for a few people to contact them and they will investigate.  Anyway, you are contradicting yourself by implying that people are stupid for entrusting their money to a legitimate business.

Actually, I'm not.  I was only hypothesizing what the story would be.  I'm not the one advocating people call the DA.  derp.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Oinsane1 on August 22, 2012, 06:31:00 AM
If you lost money in pirate's ponzi scheme, you can contact the Collin County District Attorney Special Prosecution Division. They deal with financial fraud. Pirate (aka pirateat40) is Trendon Shavers, 30, of McKinney, Texas.

Pirate's associates are Zach Nakaska and Michael Thalasinos.

Contact info:

John L. Schomburger, 1st Assistant District Attorney and Chief of Special Prosecution Division
Ext. 3610
(972) 548-4323
(972) 424-1460 (metro)
(214) 491-4860 (fax)

2100 Bloomdale Road, Suite 100
McKinney, TX 75071

jschomburger@co.collin.tx.us

this has gotten quite serious


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 22, 2012, 06:32:48 AM
If you lost money in pirate's ponzi scheme, you can contact the Collin County District Attorney Special Prosecution Division. They deal with financial fraud. Pirate (aka pirateat40) is Trendon Shavers, 30, of McKinney, Texas.

Pirate's associates are Zach Nakaska and Michael Thalasinos.

Contact info:

John L. Schomburger, 1st Assistant District Attorney and Chief of Special Prosecution Division
Ext. 3610
(972) 548-4323
(972) 424-1460 (metro)
(214) 491-4860 (fax)

2100 Bloomdale Road, Suite 100
McKinney, TX 75071

jschomburger@co.collin.tx.us

this has gotten quite serious

Dis is sewious business!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vladimir on August 22, 2012, 07:27:25 AM
@Matthew, something tells me that you have cut a deal with Pirate before staring this topic...
Am I right?

I did not start this topic and I have not cut any deals with pirate. I am not in bed with pirate. I do not know pirate. I have never talked to him on the phone even, nor have I ever met him. I have no idea what he looks like or if Trenden Shavers is in fact his real name or not. I do not know if anyone in the community even knows his phone number, much less if it's an anonymous line. I do not know what he is doing behind the scenes. For the last time, my bet is one of faith. I am prepared to lose and be wrong, but the mere act of making the bet sets a precedent for loud mouthed dipshits in this community to finally back their "expert opinions" with more than an anonymous throwaway sockpuppet reputation. It should cost money to make baseless accusations, that's why defamation laws were created. Go team!
I don't believe anything you've said :)

Then let's bet that you're wrong. How much do you want to wager?
So you just like gambling high stakes - don't matter the subject?

You just like making baseless accusations, don't matter the evidence?

It's not about betting, it's about backing up your accusations. Make the bet if you're sure of it.

Get off your horse! lol People are entitled to express their opinions and to discuss eventualities. That does not automatically mean making accusations. Someone saying without qualifications: "Pirate and all his associates are fraudsters", would be a good  example of an accusation and not even completely baseless one, given the circumstances. But yes in court of law fraud is a criminal matter and have to be proven on beyond reasonable doubt standard to get conviction. That would DA's job apparently.

I also find that putting pressure on people to gamble is highly unethical. Even more so when other side of the "bet" is not in escrow.




Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 22, 2012, 07:30:37 AM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: piotr_n on August 22, 2012, 07:31:15 AM
I also find that putting pressure on people to gamble is highly unethical. Even more so when other side of the "bet" is not in escrow.
If the "also" refereed to my posts, I don't find his bet "highly unethical".
It will be highly unethical only if he looses and doesn't pay up.

Moreover, I think (just a hunch) that there is something deeper about it and we will find out soon what it was.
If I were Pirate and planing to pay out, arranging such a bet would be my ultimate revenge for all the bad things I've read about myself.
And if the winning would go to a charity - then there is nothing unethical about it, whatsoever.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on August 22, 2012, 07:44:46 AM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

So people are either stupid, douches, or betting against MNW.

From irc log (http://www.bitbin.it/MKzYy6Bi):
Quote
[2012-08-20 18:26:59] <_matthew_> lol
[2012-08-20 18:27:19] <_matthew_> HAS ANYONE SEEN PIRATE!?!!? WHERE ARE MY INTERNET DOLLARS THAT I GAMBLED INTO SOMETHING I DONT UNDERSTAND OR KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT???
[2012-08-20 18:27:20] <imsaguy2> gonna be a long day in #btcst
[2012-08-20 18:27:22] <_matthew_> People....
[2012-08-20 18:27:24] <_matthew_> are...
[2012-08-20 18:27:26] <_matthew_> stupid...


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 22, 2012, 01:33:05 PM

Get off your horse! lol People are entitled to express their opinions and to discuss eventualities.

There's a difference between expressing your opinion and telling consenting adults what to do.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on August 22, 2012, 02:08:23 PM
It's not that difficult:

"There is a guy named Trendon Shavers, who lives in McKinney Texas, that has been running a ponzi scheme since November (or whenever it was). The scheme has finally collapsed, and his has bilked his investors out of around $5 million."

You don't have any sympathy for the people he ripped off, and that's ok. But he has (allegedly) committed a serious crime. People don't need proof to file a complaint. They just need to make the D.A. aware of it, and he will find the proof (if there is any).

They'll ask you how you sent the funds.  You'll say bitcoin. They'll say what? You'll have to prove value.  Then you have to prove you actually sent it.  Then he spends all this time researching and by the time he gets around to it, pirate's already paid people back.  They don't take kindly when you stretch the facts. 
They you have to pay taxes on the bitcoins you do still own (because now you were so helpful to prove the value to the gov'ment)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: davidspitzer on August 22, 2012, 02:09:48 PM
If you lost money in pirate's ponzi scheme, you can contact the Collin County District Attorney Special Prosecution Division. They deal with financial fraud. Pirate (aka pirateat40) is

google infos

Nice job, you know how to use Google. woo

?

And you know English! What's your point?


You're going to call the DA and say what exactly?  "I gave this guy I don't know that I met on the internet a bunch of electronic 'money' and he has been paying me interest.  Over the weekend he announced he was closing.  I think his high rate of return and refusal to reveal his business to me makes him a ponzi but I have no proof.  I know I didn't bother to research before sending him the 'money', but I care now. kthnxbye"

If we all stick to this script and call now, he will have dozens of voice mails FORCING him to pay attention when he comes to work tomorrow morning.


Yes exactly. theft can be of any asset of value, even bitcoins. Lack of research does not mitigate the crime of theft. If Pirate does not return people's money in a reasonable amount of time then he should be prosecuted for theft and fraud. Contacting the District Attorney is definitely the right thing to do. I would recommend have a few spokesperson's and gathering as many names as you can for submission to the DA's office. If nothing else it may create a little pressure on pirate to speed up the refunds if he really intends to do so. If not the sooner action is taken the sooner the damage can be mitigated before the coins are cashed out and Pirate is sipping rum on beach, located in a country without extradition to the US.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 22, 2012, 03:47:14 PM
Yes exactly. theft can be of any asset of value, even bitcoins. Lack of research does not mitigate the crime of theft. If Pirate does not return people's money in a reasonable amount of time then he should be prosecuted for theft and fraud. Contacting the District Attorney is definitely the right thing to do. I would recommend have a few spokesperson's and gathering as many names as you can for submission to the DA's office. If nothing else it may create a little pressure on pirate to speed up the refunds if he really intends to do so. If not the sooner action is taken the sooner the damage can be mitigated before the coins are cashed out and Pirate is sipping rum on beach, located in a country without extradition to the US.

You couldn't even get a scummy debt collector to touch this until 30 days have passed. 


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: rjk on August 22, 2012, 03:58:57 PM
Yes exactly. theft can be of any asset of value, even bitcoins. Lack of research does not mitigate the crime of theft. If Pirate does not return people's money in a reasonable amount of time then he should be prosecuted for theft and fraud. Contacting the District Attorney is definitely the right thing to do. I would recommend have a few spokesperson's and gathering as many names as you can for submission to the DA's office. If nothing else it may create a little pressure on pirate to speed up the refunds if he really intends to do so. If not the sooner action is taken the sooner the damage can be mitigated before the coins are cashed out and Pirate is sipping rum on beach, located in a country without extradition to the US.

You couldn't even get a scummy debt collector to touch this until 30 days have passed. 
http://i.imgur.com/nZE0Z.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on August 22, 2012, 04:28:47 PM
If I had 20k BTC in a Bitcoin Max account, I either end up with 20k BTC if pirate pays out, or 0 BTC if pirate defaults.

Apparently I could sell it for 70% of its value.  That's what people are paying for them.  So I could sell it for 14k BTC.

If I then took 10k BTC worth of bets at 100% (x2) evens 100% ROI like Matthew is trying to do, I would end up with 14+10k = 24k BTC if pirate pays out or 14-10k = 4k BTC if pirate defaults.

Either way I end up with 4k BTC more than if I hadn't sold my account and made the bets.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 22, 2012, 04:35:14 PM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.

Let's use the Vandroiy bet terms. They are well thought out and have been finely honed over the course of a week, if I remember that correctly. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, then you will pay me. If Vandroiy loses, I will pay you. I think that is a fair offer, and I also think that everybody here will recognize it as one.

How much do you want to enter? Anybody else joining in? Unlikely, but the world (not to mention myself) is probably better off if anybody who believes that the pirate is an honest man loses his money.

I appreciate that some here tried to be protective against pressuring somebody into a bet (thanks!), but in my personal case there is no problem, because I think that bets can be useful tools to either stop people spouting nonsense or uncover that they are not serious and don't really mean what they say.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: unclescrooge on August 22, 2012, 08:51:36 PM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.

Let's use the Vandroiy bet terms. They are well thought out and have been finely honed over the course of a week, if I remember that correctly. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, then you will pay me. If Vandroiy loses, I will pay you. I think that is a fair offer, and I also think that everybody here will recognize it as one.

How much do you want to enter? Anybody else joining in? Unlikely, but the world (not to mention myself) is probably better off if anybody who believes that the pirate is an honest man loses his money.

I appreciate that some here tried to be protective against pressuring somebody into a bet (thanks!), but in my personal case there is no problem, because I think that bets can be useful tools to either stop people spouting nonsense or uncover that they are not serious and don't really mean what they say.

Would you bet with me? I give you 200BTC if he doesn't pay, and you give me 100BTC if he pays. What do you say?

(i'm dead serious)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on August 22, 2012, 09:08:27 PM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.


Finally.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 23, 2012, 06:23:22 AM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.


Finally.

I would like a bet with you particularly. The cleanest way is to use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you.

How much is your opinion worth? Let's say, BTC250? Or do you want it higher? Since you are so very keen on my bet, I am sure you will agree.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on August 23, 2012, 07:20:47 AM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.


Finally.

I would like a bet with you particularly. The cleanest way is to use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you.

How much is your opinion worth? Let's say, BTC250? Or do you want it higher? Since you are so very keen on my bet, I am sure you will agree.

Howdy,

No thanks, I already have a bet with Dust, and that's more than really want to risk considering I'm only 50-50 on the outcome.    Luckily for you, Matt already has a whole giant thread with almost 5000BTC worth of other people who think just like you do.  I'm sure you'll be fine putting your money into that.   Looking forward to seeing you in that thread.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 23, 2012, 07:26:58 AM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.


Finally.

I would like a bet with you particularly. The cleanest way is to use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you.

How much is your opinion worth? Let's say, BTC250? Or do you want it higher? Since you are so very keen on my bet, I am sure you will agree.

I accept your conditions. I'm betting 10,000BTC already in another thread however, although at the moment of writing this, 4995.89114457 BTC has been bet leaving me with 5004.10885543 BTC left to bet with. Name your bet please.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 23, 2012, 07:58:10 AM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.


Finally.

I would like a bet with you particularly. The cleanest way is to use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you.

How much is your opinion worth? Let's say, BTC250? Or do you want it higher? Since you are so very keen on my bet, I am sure you will agree.

Howdy,

No thanks, I already have a bet with Dust, and that's more than really want to risk considering I'm only 50-50 on the outcome.    Luckily for you, Matt already has a whole giant thread with almost 5000BTC worth of other people who think just like you do.  I'm sure you'll be fine putting your money into that.   Looking forward to seeing you in that thread.

You are lucky to have an eloquent excuse, because otherwise you would probably have heard some nasty comments about brain fitting in mouth or some such.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 23, 2012, 08:09:11 AM
… use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you. …

I accept your conditions. I'm betting 10,000BTC already in another thread however, although at the moment of writing this, 4995.89114457 BTC has been bet leaving me with 5004.10885543 BTC left to bet with. Name your bet please.

Let's leave it at BTC250 then. That's about my limit without escrow.

This is my offer. If you accept it, we have a deal.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on August 23, 2012, 08:10:33 AM
… use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you. …

I accept your conditions. I'm betting 10,000BTC already in another thread however, although at the moment of writing this, 4995.89114457 BTC has been bet leaving me with 5004.10885543 BTC left to bet with. Name your bet please.

Let's leave it at BTC250 then. That's about my limit without escrow.

This is my offer. If you accept it, we have a deal.

Agreed. For my own accounting purposes I will add it to the same spreadsheet as I use for other betters of the betting thread, but I concede publicly that it is in fact a separate bet entirely and an exact mimc of the strict guidelines in Vandroiy and Pirate's bet. Good luck!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 23, 2012, 08:16:19 AM
… use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you. …

I accept your conditions. I'm betting 10,000BTC already in another thread however, although at the moment of writing this, 4995.89114457 BTC has been bet leaving me with 5004.10885543 BTC left to bet with. Name your bet please.

Let's leave it at BTC250 then. That's about my limit without escrow.

This is my offer. If you accept it, we have a deal.

Agreed. For my own accounting purposes I will add it to the same spreadsheet as I use for other betters of the betting thread, but I concede publicly that it is in fact a separate bet entirely and an exact mimc of the strict guidelines in Vandroiy and Pirate's bet. Good luck!

Deal. Thanks!

One day you should explain why you made such new bets in this situation.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: RoloTonyBrownTown on August 23, 2012, 08:22:09 AM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.


Finally.

I would like a bet with you particularly. The cleanest way is to use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you.

How much is your opinion worth? Let's say, BTC250? Or do you want it higher? Since you are so very keen on my bet, I am sure you will agree.

Howdy,

No thanks, I already have a bet with Dust, and that's more than really want to risk considering I'm only 50-50 on the outcome.    Luckily for you, Matt already has a whole giant thread with almost 5000BTC worth of other people who think just like you do.  I'm sure you'll be fine putting your money into that.   Looking forward to seeing you in that thread.

You are lucky to have an eloquent excuse, because otherwise you would probably have heard some nasty comments about brain fitting in mouth or some such.

That's ok, go ahead :)  Luckily for me, I've not once denied that this whole thing could be a ponzi, not have I ever attempted to convince anyone to join it.  I've merely stated that what a person does with their own money is their own business.

You, on the other hand, have been extremely vocal about this being a ponzi, without a doubt, so the onus is indeed on you to now prove your convictions.

You now have, so good for you.  


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 23, 2012, 11:50:53 AM
That's ok, go ahead :)  Luckily for me, I've not once denied that this whole thing could be a ponzi, not have I ever attempted to convince anyone to join it.  I've merely stated that what a person does with their own money is their own business.

You, on the other hand, have been extremely vocal about this being a ponzi, without a doubt, so the onus is indeed on you to now prove your convictions.

You now have, so good for you.  

I think the conviction counts for little, as you can see here all around. People have all kinds of more or less crazy convictions.

Surely it is good if somebody stands by his conviction and not just spouts stuff he himself does not value higher than nonsense. This is where a bet helps.

But the really interesting question is whether somebody is able to see the truth through the fog. 50-50 does not count. Interestingly, the people who are able to do that are often less sure of themselves, because they also know their own limits.

To recognize a picture-book Ponzi scheme, however, should not really be tasking the brain.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on August 23, 2012, 01:56:21 PM
… use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you. …

I accept your conditions. I'm betting 10,000BTC already in another thread however, although at the moment of writing this, 4995.89114457 BTC has been bet leaving me with 5004.10885543 BTC left to bet with. Name your bet please.

Let's leave it at BTC250 then. That's about my limit without escrow.

This is my offer. If you accept it, we have a deal.

Agreed. For my own accounting purposes I will add it to the same spreadsheet as I use for other betters of the betting thread, but I concede publicly that it is in fact a separate bet entirely and an exact mimc of the strict guidelines in Vandroiy and Pirate's bet. Good luck!
Witnessed


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dust on August 25, 2012, 10:04:34 PM
Every day, Pirate is losing the value of this bet, BTC5000, to additional interest he has promised lenders, assuming his total obligations are BTC500k.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on August 25, 2012, 10:29:29 PM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.

Let's use the Vandroiy bet terms. They are well thought out and have been finely honed over the course of a week, if I remember that correctly. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, then you will pay me. If Vandroiy loses, I will pay you. I think that is a fair offer, and I also think that everybody here will recognize it as one.

How much do you want to enter? Anybody else joining in? Unlikely, but the world (not to mention myself) is probably better off if anybody who believes that the pirate is an honest man loses his money.

I appreciate that some here tried to be protective against pressuring somebody into a bet (thanks!), but in my personal case there is no problem, because I think that bets can be useful tools to either stop people spouting nonsense or uncover that they are not serious and don't really mean what they say.

Would you bet with me? I give you 200BTC if he doesn't pay, and you give me 100BTC if he pays. What do you say?

(i'm dead serious)



I take this one as dead serious and offer the 100 if Vandroi looses........put up or not so serious anymore??


Cheers Zyk


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: unclescrooge on August 25, 2012, 10:31:34 PM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.

Let's use the Vandroiy bet terms. They are well thought out and have been finely honed over the course of a week, if I remember that correctly. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, then you will pay me. If Vandroiy loses, I will pay you. I think that is a fair offer, and I also think that everybody here will recognize it as one.

How much do you want to enter? Anybody else joining in? Unlikely, but the world (not to mention myself) is probably better off if anybody who believes that the pirate is an honest man loses his money.

I appreciate that some here tried to be protective against pressuring somebody into a bet (thanks!), but in my personal case there is no problem, because I think that bets can be useful tools to either stop people spouting nonsense or uncover that they are not serious and don't really mean what they say.

Would you bet with me? I give you 200BTC if he doesn't pay, and you give me 100BTC if he pays. What do you say?

(i'm dead serious)


I take this one as dead serious and offer the 100 if Vandroi looses........put up or not so serious anymore??


Cheers Zyk

You didn't answer my pm a few days ago. Your bitcoinmax account still on sale?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on August 26, 2012, 12:14:56 AM
Telling people to put their money where their mouth is is not pressuring them to gamble, it's pressuring them to stop being a douche.

Matthew, do you still want to bet that pirate will pay back his debt? I can't believe this, but if you really want, I'll bet.

Let's use the Vandroiy bet terms. They are well thought out and have been finely honed over the course of a week, if I remember that correctly. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, then you will pay me. If Vandroiy loses, I will pay you. I think that is a fair offer, and I also think that everybody here will recognize it as one.

How much do you want to enter? Anybody else joining in? Unlikely, but the world (not to mention myself) is probably better off if anybody who believes that the pirate is an honest man loses his money.

I appreciate that some here tried to be protective against pressuring somebody into a bet (thanks!), but in my personal case there is no problem, because I think that bets can be useful tools to either stop people spouting nonsense or uncover that they are not serious and don't really mean what they say.

Would you bet with me? I give you 200BTC if he doesn't pay, and you give me 100BTC if he pays. What do you say?



(i'm dead serious)


I take this one as dead serious and offer the 100 if Vandroi looses........put up or not so serious anymore??


Cheers Zyk

You didn't answer my pm a few days ago. Your bitcoinmax account still on sale?


Hi thanks unclescrooge,

sorry for answering late but i got 2 bids for 8 already---

but if you are "dead serious"  i sell them to you for 5

when letting me in on your seriosity 8) ;)

Cheers Zyk


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mp420 on August 28, 2012, 06:04:24 AM
So, apparently Vandroiy won this one? Or has Pirate actually paid all scheduled interest and withdrawal requests that were due two weeks ago or earlier?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Bitcoin Oz on August 28, 2012, 06:19:43 AM
So, apparently Vandroiy won this one? Or has Pirate actually paid all scheduled interest and withdrawal requests that were due two weeks ago or earlier?

If I understood correctly, he has until Friday. Vandroiy wins on September 1st if Pirate doesn't pay back.

Its going to be an interesting weekend whatever happens. Think I need to stock up on popcorn.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 28, 2012, 06:23:47 AM
So, apparently Vandroiy won this one? Or has Pirate actually paid all scheduled interest and withdrawal requests that were due two weeks ago or earlier?

If I understood correctly, he has until Friday. Vandroiy wins on September 1st if Pirate doesn't pay back.

Its going to be an interesting weekend whatever happens. Think I need to stock up on popcorn.

I think the interesting part is long over. The only remaining interesting question is whether the pirate and his helpers can be caught.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mp420 on August 28, 2012, 06:36:23 AM
So, apparently Vandroiy won this one? Or has Pirate actually paid all scheduled interest and withdrawal requests that were due two weeks ago or earlier?

If I understood correctly, he has until Friday. Vandroiy wins on September 1st if Pirate doesn't pay back.

Oh. Okay. I misremembered the date of the closure announcement.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on August 28, 2012, 07:04:24 AM

Its going to be an interesting weekend whatever happens. Think I need to stock up on popcorn.

+1000

Fuck TV, I'm watching Bitcointalk.org for the next week.  ;)

I think the interesting part is long over. The only remaining interesting question is whether the pirate and his helpers can be caught.

You could be surprised...don't ditch the popcorn yet. :)

As much as I like good entertainment, I think what will happen is this.

There will be some irate noise. People whill swear and whine. I hope some will get together and try to catch the thief, which I think is interesting.

Then, after a week or two, the noise will die down. Those who lost most or all of their bitcoins will simply disappear.

There may be a few movements in the market. Perhaps the pirate pulls his loot through the bitcoin market once again for a secondary laundering operation. Perhaps we are seeing this already now. But that will not move the market in any extreme ways. It will pass without much of a trace.

The reputation of bitcoin will suffer again, but it has weathered worse things than an isolated Ponzi operation.

I hope people will remember this episode and learn from it. I hope all the other Ponzi schemes will also burst and get finished, but probably most won't, as there are always some people who never learn.

And the world, including bitcoin, will go on.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Bitcoin Oz on August 28, 2012, 07:07:00 AM
Im going to setup a BUTTHURT glbse asset and sell shares in it.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on August 28, 2012, 09:50:37 PM
So, apparently Vandroiy won this one? Or has Pirate actually paid all scheduled interest and withdrawal requests that were due two weeks ago or earlier?

If I understood correctly, he has until Friday. Vandroiy wins on September 1st if Pirate doesn't pay back.

A default will be construed to have occurred, if at any time prior to October 1 2013, 00.01 UTC, BTCST will be late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST.

The last regularly-scheduled interest payments went out on Monday 13th August.  So the payments that were due on Monday 20th August are currently 8 days late, and will be 14 days late on Monday 3rd September.

I don't know the date of the earliest unpaid withdrawal request.  Perhaps that's where the date of September 1st comes from.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 28, 2012, 10:04:06 PM
A default will be construed to have occurred, if at any time prior to October 1 2013, 00.01 UTC, BTCST will be late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST.

The last regularly-scheduled interest payments went out on Monday 13th August.  So the payments that were due on Monday 20th August are currently 8 days late, and will be 14 days late on Monday 3rd September.

I don't know the date of the earliest unpaid withdrawal request.  Perhaps that's where the date of September 1st comes from.

Aye.  Its the first withdrawal that is the earliest deadline.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: notme on August 30, 2012, 08:46:21 PM
So, apparently Vandroiy won this one? Or has Pirate actually paid all scheduled interest and withdrawal requests that were due two weeks ago or earlier?

If I understood correctly, he has until Friday. Vandroiy wins on September 1st if Pirate doesn't pay back.

A default will be construed to have occurred, if at any time prior to October 1 2013, 00.01 UTC, BTCST will be late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST.

The last regularly-scheduled interest payments went out on Monday 13th August.  So the payments that were due on Monday 20th August are currently 8 days late, and will be 14 days late on Monday 3rd September.

I don't know the date of the earliest unpaid withdrawal request.  Perhaps that's where the date of September 1st comes from.

Right, bitlane asked for a withdrawal a few days before the 20th, then posted 3 hours later that he hadn't received it yet.  Naturally, this caused a cascade of withdrawals because pirate was unplugged for a few hours.  When he came back and needed to pay out a significant portion of his operating funds he said "fuck this, I'm done".  I still expect a partial payout and I believe it could have been a full payout if there had been less of a shitstorm, but herds will be herds.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nanotube on August 30, 2012, 11:43:54 PM
Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

I hereby declare the bet decided, in favor of Vandroiy. A withdrawal request made on August 15 2012, is still outstanding as of today, Aug 30 2012, which triggers default as specified in the contract, via "late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST." clause.

In private communication, pirateat40 has agreed with this assessment and conceded the bet.

Since Vandroiy is currently traveling, we have agreed via private communication to set up the 10k BTC disbursement of escrowed funds sometime in September, when he is back.

For your easy reference, link to bet contract:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013589#msg1013589
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----

iEYEARECAAYFAlA/+lMACgkQ5/k4vslVlLJoVgCeP2/oEcVMrA9zLev1l8AMXrgY
srkAn1yX8t8Y0ADJTPrKIFKOBk6e3skx
=fnN2
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Scott J on August 30, 2012, 11:46:41 PM
Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

I hereby declare the bet decided, in favor of Vandroiy. A withdrawal request made on August 15 2012, is still outstanding as of today, Aug 30 2012, which triggers default as specified in the contract, via "late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST." clause.

In private communication, pirateat40 has agreed with this assessment and conceded the bet.

Since Vandroiy is currently traveling, we have agreed via private communication to set up the 10k BTC disbursement of escrowed funds sometime in September, when he is back.

For your easy reference, link to bet contract:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013589#msg1013589
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----

iEYEARECAAYFAlA/+lMACgkQ5/k4vslVlLJoVgCeP2/oEcVMrA9zLev1l8AMXrgY
srkAn1yX8t8Y0ADJTPrKIFKOBk6e3skx
=fnN2
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: notme on August 30, 2012, 11:48:23 PM
Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

I hereby declare the bet decided, in favor of Vandroiy. A withdrawal request made on August 15 2012, is still outstanding as of today, Aug 30 2012, which triggers default as specified in the contract, via "late by at least 14 calendar days, in disbursing either any regularly-scheduled interest payment, or any withdrawal request, by a valid account holder of BTCST." clause.

In private communication, pirateat40 has agreed with this assessment and conceded the bet.

Since Vandroiy is currently traveling, we have agreed via private communication to set up the 10k BTC disbursement of escrowed funds sometime in September, when he is back.

For your easy reference, link to bet contract:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013589#msg1013589
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----

iEYEARECAAYFAlA/+lMACgkQ5/k4vslVlLJoVgCeP2/oEcVMrA9zLev1l8AMXrgY
srkAn1yX8t8Y0ADJTPrKIFKOBk6e3skx
=fnN2
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BTCurious on August 30, 2012, 11:50:13 PM
Congratulations Vandroiy!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on August 30, 2012, 11:50:19 PM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Raoul Duke on August 30, 2012, 11:53:52 PM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

mind

blown


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Brunic on August 30, 2012, 11:56:27 PM
Congratulations for your balls of steel Vandroiy.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on August 31, 2012, 12:00:56 AM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

Note that Sept. 9th is "sometime in September"

Anyone wanna make a bet?  ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on August 31, 2012, 12:06:45 AM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

Note that Sept. 9th is "sometime in September"

Anyone wanna make a bet?  ::)
What is sept 9?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on August 31, 2012, 12:11:46 AM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

Note that Sept. 9th is "sometime in September"

Anyone wanna make a bet?  ::)
What is sept 9?

I think we've had enough of the scams, tricks, lies, thieving, etc, and I'm glad my bet has already served many of it's multiple purposes. Can't wait until September 9th.

Matt's bet resolves.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: DutchBrat on August 31, 2012, 12:12:32 AM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

Note that Sept. 9th is "sometime in September"

Anyone wanna make a bet?  ::)
What is sept 9?

I think we've had enough of the scams, tricks, lies, thieving, etc, and I'm glad my bet has already served many of it's multiple purposes. Can't wait until September 9th.

Matt's bet resolves.

'Dissolves'  :D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on August 31, 2012, 12:13:14 AM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

Note that Sept. 9th is "sometime in September"

Anyone wanna make a bet?  ::)
What is sept 9?

I think we've had enough of the scams, tricks, lies, thieving, etc, and I'm glad my bet has already served many of it's multiple purposes. Can't wait until September 9th.

Matt's bet resolves.

Duh, thanks.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: c0in$ on August 31, 2012, 08:35:31 AM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

Note that Sept. 9th is "sometime in September"

Anyone wanna make a bet?  ::)

I am still taking bets that pirate will repay here if you would like to wager.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104255.0

All bets must be escrowed

The bet contract is listed in a PGP signed document by the escrower (Garr225)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: makomk on August 31, 2012, 10:09:16 AM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.
Keep them, presumably? After all, he risked - or at least tied up - a substantial chunk of his own money in order to convince others that yes, he genuinely did believe that BTCS&T was a ponzi scheme in the face of cries of "troll!" and "put your money where your mouth is or shut up!" from Pirate supporters. I think that more than pays off any ethical obligations he might have. Also, he kinda predicted this on about the second page:

Wait, I get it. When you default, the users come raging at me screaming I have their money. ;D

Edit - and the fourth page:
The only "pocket ace" I'm afraid of is people discrediting me for obtaining stolen funds I can't pay back for a multitude of reasons. I don't think that is something Pirateat40 cares about though, and I'm not so certain he wants to get back at me. Just playing his game like a pro.

And if you expect me to believe that Pirate's supporters would've let him back away from the bet being offered because of this, you have another thing coming.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on August 31, 2012, 03:18:45 PM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.
Keep them, presumably? After all, he risked - or at least tied up - a substantial chunk of his own money in order to convince others that yes, he genuinely did believe that BTCS&T was a ponzi scheme in the face of cries of "troll!" and "put your money where your mouth is or shut up!" from Pirate supporters. I think that more than pays off any ethical obligations he might have.

First off:  As someone who has an investment in BTCS&T let me say that I personally have no problem with him keeping the bet.

HOWEVER some of team ponzi (namely JoelKatz) have gone on about receipt of stolen money.  So I was just wondering if they were going to play by their own rules.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on August 31, 2012, 03:38:36 PM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.
Keep them, presumably? After all, he risked - or at least tied up - a substantial chunk of his own money in order to convince others that yes, he genuinely did believe that BTCS&T was a ponzi scheme in the face of cries of "troll!" and "put your money where your mouth is or shut up!" from Pirate supporters. I think that more than pays off any ethical obligations he might have.

First off:  As someone who has an investment in BTCS&T let me say that I personally have no problem with him keeping the bet.

HOWEVER some of team ponzi (namely JoelKatz) have gone on about receipt of stolen money.  So I was just wondering if they were going to play by their own rules.

I'm of the opinion that the winnings should be donated to the OP.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on August 31, 2012, 03:54:12 PM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.
Keep them, presumably? After all, he risked - or at least tied up - a substantial chunk of his own money in order to convince others that yes, he genuinely did believe that BTCS&T was a ponzi scheme in the face of cries of "troll!" and "put your money where your mouth is or shut up!" from Pirate supporters. I think that more than pays off any ethical obligations he might have.

First off:  As someone who has an investment in BTCS&T let me say that I personally have no problem with him keeping the bet.

HOWEVER some of team ponzi (namely JoelKatz) have gone on about receipt of stolen money.  So I was just wondering if they were going to play by their own rules.

I'm of the opinion that the winnings should be donated to the OP.

That is the only fair way to do it.

Glad we agree on that. Party at my house, then.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on August 31, 2012, 04:55:05 PM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

mind

blown


Surely he will ask somebody for advise on this ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on August 31, 2012, 05:01:15 PM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

mind

blown


Surely he will ask somebody for advise on this ;)

Yes, me, and I already gave my opinion on that. I'll be happy to receive stolen goods - my karma can handle it atm.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on August 31, 2012, 05:32:13 PM
Already had a bad conciousness when i fucked my goat , stupid me, it felt so awesome ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 31, 2012, 05:33:26 PM
Already had a bad conciousness when i fucked my goat , stupid me, it felt so awesome ;)

Did it look like this?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=7558;type=avatar


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on August 31, 2012, 05:34:41 PM
Already had a bad conciousness when i fucked my goat , stupid me, it felt so awesome ;)

Well, I wouldn't want to get between a man and his ... er ... hobbies. Go at it with a will young sir! Just ensure it happens far, far away from me.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on August 31, 2012, 06:13:23 PM
What will be interesting now is what he does with what he believes to be profits from an illegal venture.

mind

blown


Surely he will ask somebody for advise on this ;)

Yes, me, and I already gave my opinion on that. I'll be happy to receive stolen goods - my karma can handle it atm.


Hopefully places where goats are fucked and people toying with stolen funds are far away from each other.

D´accord Sir ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Chang Hum on August 31, 2012, 06:46:02 PM
Yes pirates very likely to hand over $50000 to someone he probably doesn't like after scamming half a million off close forum friends :s


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: CodesInChaos on August 31, 2012, 06:55:54 PM
Yes pirates very likely to hand over $50000 to someone he probably doesn't like after scamming half a million off close forum friends :s
The coins are in escrow, and yes it's very likely that nanotube hands over the money.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Chang Hum on August 31, 2012, 07:00:25 PM
Yes pirates very likely to hand over $50000 to someone he probably doesn't like after scamming half a million off close forum friends :s
The coins are in escrow, and yes it's very likely that nanotube hands over the money.

Oh fair enough didn't think anyone on this forum had the sense to use an escrow


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 31, 2012, 07:05:35 PM
Yes pirates very likely to hand over $50000 to someone he probably doesn't like after scamming half a million off close forum friends :s
The coins are in escrow, and yes it's very likely that nanotube hands over the money.

Have you noticed that nanotube hasn't been very active on the forums lately?  It makes you stop and think..


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Chang Hum on August 31, 2012, 07:10:20 PM
Yes pirates very likely to hand over $50000 to someone he probably doesn't like after scamming half a million off close forum friends :s
The coins are in escrow, and yes it's very likely that nanotube hands over the money.

Have you noticed that nanotube hasn't been very active on the forums lately?  It makes you stop and think..

How come everyone trusts this nanotube so much with over 100 grand in the virtual equivalent of cash?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: md2k7 on August 31, 2012, 07:22:31 PM
Have you noticed that nanotube hasn't been very active on the forums lately?  It makes you stop and think..

He probably stopped to think ;-)

I'm really stunned by the high values of BTC bet on Pirate's payout. Waiting for the announcements of BTC put out on Pirate's head :P


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: makomk on August 31, 2012, 09:36:50 PM
HOWEVER some of team ponzi (namely JoelKatz) have gone on about receipt of stolen money.  So I was just wondering if they were going to play by their own rules.
Well, that's going to be a fun one. On the one hand, it is probably stolen money. On the other hand, one of the things that makes ponzi schemes particularly insidious - and proably one of the reasons JoelKatz has been banging on a lot about stolen money - is that they give canny investors who realise the whole shebang is a ponzi a financial incentive to insist as loudly and convincingly as possible that the scheme can't possibly be a ponzi, that they'll get their money back if they just wait, that anyone who claims otherwise is just trolling...

Under those circumstances, giving ponzi-suppoers the power to effectively impose a financial penalty on anyone who wants to point out that it is actually a ponzi is a pretty bad thing, and that's effectively what letting them pressuring Vandroiy into either taking this bet or shutting up only to try and take his winnings away as "stolen goods" after he wins is doing.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitlane on August 31, 2012, 09:40:21 PM
Have you noticed that nanotube hasn't been very active on the forums lately?  It makes you stop and think..

That's OK. I am sure he has a great OTC Rating from people like Pirate, that trust him.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 31, 2012, 10:04:40 PM
Have you noticed that nanotube hasn't been very active on the forums lately?  It makes you stop and think..

That's OK. I am sure he has a great OTC Rating from people like Pirate, that trust him.

I was trolling.  Nanotube rises to the level of dev trust.  If you don't trust Nanotube, you might as well not trust Gavin, gmaxwell, etc


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on August 31, 2012, 10:20:14 PM
Have you noticed that nanotube hasn't been very active on the forums lately?  It makes you stop and think..

That's OK. I am sure he has a great OTC Rating from people like Pirate, that trust him.

I was trolling.  Nanotube rises to the level of dev trust.  If you don't trust Nanotube, you might as well not trust Gavin, gmaxwell, etc

Or the OTC ratings for that mattter.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on August 31, 2012, 10:38:15 PM
Have you noticed that nanotube hasn't been very active on the forums lately?  It makes you stop and think..

That's OK. I am sure he has a great OTC Rating from people like Pirate, that trust him.

I was trolling.  Nanotube rises to the level of dev trust.  If you don't trust Nanotube, you might as well not trust Gavin, gmaxwell, etc

Or the OTC ratings for that mattter.

Thats the point, he doesn't trust the OTC ratings.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitlane on August 31, 2012, 11:29:34 PM
Thats the point, he doesn't trust the OTC ratings.

No, I do not.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on September 01, 2012, 12:05:17 AM
Thats the point, he doesn't trust the OTC ratings.

No, I do not.

;;rate bitlane 5 seems legit


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 01, 2012, 11:53:58 AM
… use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you. …

I accept your conditions. I'm betting 10,000BTC already in another thread however, although at the moment of writing this, 4995.89114457 BTC has been bet leaving me with 5004.10885543 BTC left to bet with. Name your bet please.

Let's leave it at BTC250 then. That's about my limit without escrow.

This is my offer. If you accept it, we have a deal.

Agreed. For my own accounting purposes I will add it to the same spreadsheet as I use for other betters of the betting thread, but I concede publicly that it is in fact a separate bet entirely and an exact mimc of the strict guidelines in Vandroiy and Pirate's bet. Good luck!

Time to pay up. I am sending my bitcoin address to you by PM.

I'm still curious why you made this hopeless bet. Care to explain? Did you get messages from the pirate that sounded so believable that you fell for them?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on September 01, 2012, 12:15:38 PM
Yes pirates very likely to hand over $50000 to someone he probably doesn't like after scamming half a million off close forum friends :s
The coins are in escrow, and yes it's very likely that nanotube hands over the money.

Have you noticed that nanotube hasn't been very active on the forums lately?  It makes you stop and think..

Was the bet not yet paid out? If not why not?

Also from talking to nanotube before the bet I think he knew Pirate was going to lose before it was made public. That is just what my gut tells me.

Something seems off...

You are lazy.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1147937#msg1147937 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1147937#msg1147937)

Too handy a link to lose.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitlane on September 01, 2012, 03:30:22 PM
So, does this mean that since Pirate was HONEST enough to LOSE the bet, that he will remain an OP in the #bitcoin-otc IRC channel ?

This concession should definitely help boost his OTC ratings as well, as he was completely honest in regards to the bet. He deserves +10 Ratings from EVERYONE.

....it only makes sense, right ?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on September 01, 2012, 06:00:31 PM
So, does this mean that since Pirate was HONEST enough to LOSE the bet, that he will remain an OP in the #bitcoin-otc IRC channel ?

This concession should definitely help boost his OTC ratings as well, as he was completely honest in regards to the bet. He deserves +10 Ratings from EVERYONE.

....it only makes sense, right ?
Well he did pay... (the bet)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: sadpandatech on September 01, 2012, 06:49:08 PM
So, does this mean that since Pirate was HONEST enough to LOSE the bet, that he will remain an OP in the #bitcoin-otc IRC channel ?

This concession should definitely help boost his OTC ratings as well, as he was completely honest in regards to the bet. He deserves +10 Ratings from EVERYONE.

....it only makes sense, right ?
Well he did pay... (the bet)
No, the escrow that both parties put their money into 56~ days before the bet was ended paid the bet. ;p


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on September 01, 2012, 06:57:58 PM
So, does this mean that since Pirate was HONEST enough to LOSE the bet, that he will remain an OP in the #bitcoin-otc IRC channel ?

This concession should definitely help boost his OTC ratings as well, as he was completely honest in regards to the bet. He deserves +10 Ratings from EVERYONE.

....it only makes sense, right ?
Well he did pay... (the bet)
No, the escrow that both parties put their money into 56~ days before the bet was ended paid the bet. ;p
Splitting hairs.  Also he did concede to nanotube (rather than throwing up technicalities)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nimda on September 01, 2012, 08:00:00 PM
So, does this mean that since Pirate was HONEST enough to LOSE the bet, that he will remain an OP in the #bitcoin-otc IRC channel ?

This concession should definitely help boost his OTC ratings as well, as he was completely honest in regards to the bet. He deserves +10 Ratings from EVERYONE.

....it only makes sense, right ?
Well he did pay... (the bet)
No, the escrow that both parties put their money into 56~ days before the bet was ended paid the bet. ;p
Splitting hairs.  Also he did concede to nanotube (rather than throwing up technicalities)
According to nanotube, pirate conceded the bet in private conversation.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitlane on September 01, 2012, 09:28:30 PM
According to nanotube, pirate conceded the bet in private conversation.

BUT.... did he get his ass booted out of #Bitcoin-OTC, or at least lose his OP status there ?

Considering the Press he's getting currently and the fact that he doesn't seem to have a response to any of it, or any defense that anyone knows about - he should pretty much be 'dead in the water' in any respectable corners of the Bitcoin Community.
If not, then this community as a whole has more problems than can be repaired and should be considered ruined.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SysRun on September 01, 2012, 09:36:20 PM
Pirate just showed up on #btcst, but I was unable to get a transcript, I only heard second hand. Anyone?

something about "things are going great!" "eat my shit!" again, this was relayed to me.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitlane on September 01, 2012, 09:39:06 PM
Pirate just showed up on #btcst, but I was unable to get a transcript, I only heard second hand. Anyone?

something about "things are going great!" "eat my shit!" again, this was relayed to me.

LOL....

'things are going great' was to everyone else.....'eat my shit' was probably for me ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on September 01, 2012, 09:44:11 PM
According to nanotube, pirate conceded the bet in private conversation.

BUT.... did he get his ass booted out of #Bitcoin-OTC, or at least lose his OP status there ?

Why should he? he still has a +189 rating. ;)

No, but seriously, if that number doesn't tank when/if he fails to pay to everyone's satisfaction, I think you're right, and we need to start from scratch.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 01, 2012, 09:45:43 PM
Pirate just showed up on #btcst, but I was unable to get a transcript, I only heard second hand. Anyone?

something about "things are going great!" "eat my shit!" again, this was relayed to me.

All times are in US Central DST (CDT) (UTC-5)

Quote
[2012/09/01 16:25:22] <@pirateat40> Total Accounts Repaid: 23/459 (subject to required information)
[2012/09/01 16:27:28] <@pirateat40> HOWDY!
[2012/09/01 16:29:05] <@pirateat40> The PPT that didn't' comply will have a long road ahead.  Those that contacted me ahead of time "Friday" are clear.
[2012/09/01 16:30:02] <@pirateat40> I'm wanted to speak for awhile now, but I someone stole my ship.
[2012/09/01 16:30:35] <@pirateat40> Finally things are progressing and I've returned to my boat.
[2012/09/01 16:30:54] <@pirateat40> It's going to get better to some, I promise.
[2012/09/01 16:31:26] <@pirateat40> That's all for now, back to your regularly scheduled trolling.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: SysRun on September 01, 2012, 09:48:12 PM
Thanks imsaguy


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on September 01, 2012, 09:53:49 PM
Quote
[2012/09/01 16:30:54] <@pirateat40> It's going to get better to some, I promise.

Does not bode well.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: conspirosphere.tk on September 01, 2012, 10:01:47 PM
Quote
[2012/09/01 16:30:54] <@pirateat40> It's going to get better to some, I promise.

Does not bode well.

He could still die and let his "Dead man switch" to kick in.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitlane on September 01, 2012, 10:14:20 PM
He could still die and let his "Dead man switch" to kick in.

I have caught him in enough lies now to know for a fact that he is 100% officially FULL OF SHIT.

Dead Man's Switch...GIMME A FUCKING BREAK. Where was that Dead Man's Switch 2 weeks ago, when this Scam fell apart ?

It's also nice to see him still making threats in IRC. He's the man, he's got all the power  ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Puppet on September 01, 2012, 10:18:01 PM
For Matthew's sake, that long road better not stretch beyond september 9th (was it?)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: conspirosphere.tk on September 01, 2012, 10:23:44 PM
Dead Man's Switch...GIMME A FUCKING BREAK. Where was that Dead Man's Switch 2 weeks ago, when this Scam fell apart ?

Maybe you need a sarcasm detector?
I just liked the idea, since it would give additional reasons to many to end his life.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on September 01, 2012, 10:35:01 PM
Dead Man's Switch...GIMME A FUCKING BREAK. Where was that Dead Man's Switch 2 weeks ago, when this Scam fell apart ?

Maybe you need a sarcasm detector?
I just liked the idea, since it would give additional reasons to many to end his life.

As if anyone actually needed more incentive. Dude is probably the most hated person in Bitcoin right now. If I had any money in this fiasco, I'd be pissed.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: guruvan on September 01, 2012, 11:04:40 PM

I'm really stunned by the high values of BTC bet on Pirate's payout. Waiting for the announcements of BTC put out on Pirate's head :P

Anyone want to place bets on this? I'm working up some odds, both on the amount and the actual event.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitlane on September 01, 2012, 11:15:25 PM
If I had any money in this fiasco, I'd be pissed.

Nah. Easy come, easy go ;)

I actually need to be pissed off about something, otherwise, what's the point in getting out of bed in the morning ?
It's like fuel....for a crazy person.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: farfiman on September 02, 2012, 06:06:03 AM
Quote
[2012/09/01 16:30:54] <@pirateat40> It's going to get better to some, I promise.

Does not bode well.

He means everybody but bitlane ;)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitlane on September 02, 2012, 06:12:53 AM

Quote
[2012/09/01 16:30:54] <@pirateat40> It's going to get better to some, I promise.

He means everybody but bitlane ;)

I approve this statement.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Bitcoin Oz on September 02, 2012, 06:19:24 AM

I'm really stunned by the high values of BTC bet on Pirate's payout. Waiting for the announcements of BTC put out on Pirate's head :P

Anyone want to place bets on this? I'm working up some odds, both on the amount and the actual event.

Interesting.....does betsofbitcoin allow those sort of bets ?



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on September 02, 2012, 09:19:47 AM

Quote
[2012/09/01 16:30:54] <@pirateat40> It's going to get better to some, I promise.

He means everybody but bitlane ;)

I approve this statement.

I´d rather say you can sleap well feathered, cause you´ll be first in bitline when payout of bancrupcy remnants starts.

Teared and a reason to jump out of bed can only be given by zykloogish wispered in your ears ;)

Thanks for you efforts to entertain, whats written in between those lines

Good morning and a "going to get better" for both of us

Zyk




Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitlane on September 02, 2012, 09:58:34 AM
^ Exactly what Zyk said......
(I have no idea what Zyk just said)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on September 02, 2012, 10:08:38 AM
^ Exactly what Zyk said......
(I have no idea what Zyk just said)

(no one ever does)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 02, 2012, 10:18:19 AM

I'm really stunned by the high values of BTC bet on Pirate's payout. Waiting for the announcements of BTC put out on Pirate's head :P

Anyone want to place bets on this? I'm working up some odds, both on the amount and the actual event.

Do you mean bets on whether the pirate can be caught or not?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on September 02, 2012, 11:13:16 AM

I'm really stunned by the high values of BTC bet on Pirate's payout. Waiting for the announcements of BTC put out on Pirate's head :P

Anyone want to place bets on this? I'm working up some odds, both on the amount and the actual event.

Do you mean bets on whether the pirate can be caught or not?

Well, a bet that someone will put a price on his head would be, essentially, a price on his head.

I would avoid doing something like that, just in case he does get hurt over this. Don't want to get blamed.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: makomk on September 02, 2012, 11:39:08 AM
Does not bode well.
Neither did this part:

Quote
16:45 < Otoh> pirate: The PPT that didn't' comply will have a long road ahead. Those that contacted me ahead of time "Friday" are clear. - So as all my funds I moved from BST to Bitcoinmax wen the new rates were announced are now in a quagmire, is there anything your investors who used the most popular pass through & was recommended as good guy by you able to do now to help solve this? a
16:46 <@pirateat40> Otoh, You won a prize....  "YOU GET NOTHING"!
16:47 -!- mode/#btcst [+b *!*@127.Red-81-38-197.dynamicIP.rima-tde.net] by pirateat40
16:47 -!- Otoh was kicked from #btcst by pirateat40 [You're not welcome here!]


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU on September 02, 2012, 03:25:41 PM
Does not bode well.
Neither did this part:

Quote
16:45 < Otoh> pirate: The PPT that didn't' comply will have a long road ahead. Those that contacted me ahead of time "Friday" are clear. - So as all my funds I moved from BST to Bitcoinmax wen the new rates were announced are now in a quagmire, is there anything your investors who used the most popular pass through & was recommended as good guy by you able to do now to help solve this? a
16:46 <@pirateat40> Otoh, You won a prize....  "YOU GET NOTHING"!
16:47 -!- mode/#btcst [+b *!*@127.Red-81-38-197.dynamicIP.rima-tde.net] by pirateat40
16:47 -!- Otoh was kicked from #btcst by pirateat40 [You're not welcome here!]


The only thing worse than a scammer, is a scammer that taunts and insults you after taking your money.  What an utter prick.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: guruvan on September 02, 2012, 07:14:23 PM

I'm really stunned by the high values of BTC bet on Pirate's payout. Waiting for the announcements of BTC put out on Pirate's head :P

Anyone want to place bets on this? I'm working up some odds, both on the amount and the actual event.

Do you mean bets on whether the pirate can be caught or not?

Well, a bet that someone will put a price on his head would be, essentially, a price on his head.

I would avoid doing something like that, just in case he does get hurt over this. Don't want to get blamed.

I wasn't particularly serious, and had no real intention of place or accepting bets. We'd first have to establish the odds on us knowing the actual identity & location of pirate, which seems very unlikely. Seems unlikely that the individual who went to Vegas to meet the large lenders would have been anything other than a hired actor.

IMO, the price for the wallet(s) & fiat cash would be considerably higher than the price for a (mostly useless) pirate head. I'm not sure we've established how much actual money there might be to recover.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Blind on September 02, 2012, 07:44:55 PM
Seems unlikely that the individual who went to Vegas to meet the large lenders would have been anything other than a hired actor.

Considering that people who went to Vegas to see Pirate were not into the joke, I don't think that guy was an actor. If he was, he had to be introduced by Pirate to workings of this scam, be familiar with forum personas, be familiar with Bitcoin, cryptography and computer technology in general (Pirate is an IT guy, mind you). If he wasn't primed and well prepared, somebody surely would notice. You have his face, so what? Pirate's location (assuming is a correct one) is well known, his details are well known, $5m is missing and all you get is nerd cry and lawyer threats. By now he could move somewhere else within the US if he is not really trying, or is sipping pina coladas in Acapulco with new identity and fake beard.

One thing still unclear to me (assuming it was indeed a scam) is why he hasn't severed all communications and just went poof.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: sadpandatech on September 02, 2012, 07:48:38 PM
One thing still unclear to me (assuming it was indeed a scam) is why he hasn't severed all communications and just went poof.

Because any big money lenders who could potentially take action are either privy to info that no one else has or are just still convinced by his presence that they will still get their money back.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 02, 2012, 09:34:44 PM
One thing still unclear to me (assuming it was indeed a scam) is why he hasn't severed all communications and just went poof.

Because he has so far always been able to confuse and delay everybody. He may still need time to launder money by means of some mining operation (GPUmax?).


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on September 03, 2012, 01:41:18 AM
I'm amazed that people are still using GPUMax. Even you were getting value for money, wouldn't you feel morally obliged not to use it?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on September 03, 2012, 11:23:49 AM
I'm amazed that people are still using GPUMax. Even you were getting value for money, wouldn't you feel morally obliged not to use it?

zlol

Pirate needs to finish his laundry. Don't bother him.  :P


When will the bet end? (Or is it over already?)




Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BadBear on September 03, 2012, 11:31:04 AM
I'm amazed that people are still using GPUMax. Even you were getting value for money, wouldn't you feel morally obliged not to use it?

zlol

Pirate needs to finish his laundry. Don't bother him.  :P


When will the bet end? (Or is it over already?)




It's over, as of a few days ago when two weeks had passed without withdrawals being processed. Vandroiy won obviously.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on September 03, 2012, 12:42:44 PM
I'm amazed that people are still using GPUMax. Even you were getting value for money, wouldn't you feel morally obliged not to use it?

zlol

Pirate needs to finish his laundry. Don't bother him.  :P


When will the bet end? (Or is it over already?)




It's over, as of a few days ago when two weeks had passed without withdrawals being processed. Vandroiy won obviously.

And as far as I know Matt's bet is over on the 9th.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: phelix on September 03, 2012, 04:37:47 PM
I'm amazed that people are still using GPUMax. Even you were getting value for money, wouldn't you feel morally obliged not to use it?

zlol

Pirate needs to finish his laundry. Don't bother him.  :P


When will the bet end? (Or is it over already?)




It's over, as of a few days ago when two weeks had passed without withdrawals being processed. Vandroiy won obviously.

sweet.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on September 03, 2012, 07:11:26 PM
One thing still unclear to me (assuming it was indeed a scam) is why he hasn't severed all communications and just went poof.

Because any big money lenders who could potentially take action are either privy to info that no one else has or are just still convinced by is presence that they will still get their money back.

There it is !!!
The first step!
And in such a long sentence without kommata ;)

Cheers Zyk



Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: stochastic on September 04, 2012, 04:03:17 AM
One thing still unclear to me (assuming it was indeed a scam) is why he hasn't severed all communications and just went poof.

Because any big money lenders who could potentially take action are either privy to info that no one else has or are just still convinced by his presence that they will still get their money back.

I think I'm about the only large account that at this point thinks it was a scam or he just ran off with the money. I assume this because I keep getting sent messages like, "Don't call pirate names, you are going to hurt his feelings!!"





I think pirate is actually a member of the [img=http://www.hubculture.com/]http://Hub Cult[/img]

and with the coins he is going to...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_7c760YbgrE4/SKbTwysZsII/AAAAAAAACa8/E4-9xzsVe1I/s400/whoops.png


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: sLide. on September 05, 2012, 03:57:09 PM
This is the first long thread I've read though on this forum and I must say....

 8) drama!


And why are people betting on if this guy is gonna pay?  He's not.  Why would you bet that a con-artist is going to have a change of heart.  People don't change without something making them... Unless someone finds him and puts the hurt on him, he's not going to pay.  Simple.  Now give me all you're bitcoins....

...for science. 


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: muyuu on September 05, 2012, 06:40:42 PM
Happy days, is Vandroiy already in control of his well-deserved earnings?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on September 05, 2012, 10:35:38 PM
This is the first long thread I've read though on this forum

I am so so sorry. Please pass my condolences to your widow.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hannesnaude on September 06, 2012, 06:32:37 AM
… use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you. …

I accept your conditions. I'm betting 10,000BTC already in another thread however, although at the moment of writing this, 4995.89114457 BTC has been bet leaving me with 5004.10885543 BTC left to bet with. Name your bet please.

Let's leave it at BTC250 then. That's about my limit without escrow.

This is my offer. If you accept it, we have a deal.

Agreed. For my own accounting purposes I will add it to the same spreadsheet as I use for other betters of the betting thread, but I concede publicly that it is in fact a separate bet entirely and an exact mimc of the strict guidelines in Vandroiy and Pirate's bet. Good luck!

Time to pay up. I am sending my bitcoin address to you by PM.

I'm still curious why you made this hopeless bet. Care to explain? Did you get messages from the pirate that sounded so believable that you fell for them?

Curious to hear whether Matt paid you.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 06, 2012, 07:05:02 AM
Curious to hear whether Matt paid you.

He wrote he will deal with his bets beginning on September 9th.

This makes at least some sense, as his other bets end on that day, so I will wait until then without throwing a tantrum. :)

Does anybody here know Matthew N. Wright (or the actual person behind that account) better than I do? He seemed like a different person some time ago.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on September 06, 2012, 07:11:08 AM
Curious to hear whether Matt paid you.

He wrote he will deal with his bets beginning on September 9th.

This makes at least some sense, as his other bets end on that day, so I will wait until then without throwing a tantrum. :)

Does anybody here know Matthew N. Wright (or the actual person behind that account) better than I do? He seemed like a different person some time ago.

Considering I don't know you -at all- I would say most know me better lol


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 06, 2012, 07:15:16 AM
Considering I don't know you -at all- I would say most know me better lol

I am certainly hoping that you have a good reputation and want to keep it. :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on September 06, 2012, 07:19:01 AM
Considering I don't know you -at all- I would say most know me better lol

I am certainly hoping that you have a good reputation and want to keep it. :)
I have a reputation as a troll first and foremost.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on September 06, 2012, 07:33:01 AM
Considering I don't know you -at all- I would say most know me better lol

I am certainly hoping that you have a good reputation and want to keep it. :)
I have a reputation as a troll first and foremost.

Least confidence-building thing you've said all week, Matt. :(


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on September 06, 2012, 07:36:28 AM
Considering I don't know you -at all- I would say most know me better lol

I am certainly hoping that you have a good reputation and want to keep it. :)
I have a reputation as a troll first and foremost.

Least confidence-building thing you've said all week, Matt. :(

If you try, you can succeed at anything!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 06, 2012, 07:37:44 AM
I have a reputation as a troll first and foremost.

Least confidence-building thing you've said all week, Matt. :(

That will be corrected when he will have paid out his bets.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hannesnaude on September 06, 2012, 07:44:09 AM
...when he will have paid out...
Now where have I heard that before?

Second verse same as the first.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on September 06, 2012, 07:45:20 AM
...when he will have paid out...
Now where have I heard that before?

Second verse same as the first.

Ha---llelujah! Ha---llelujah! Hallelujah. Hallelujah. Halle----lujah!!!!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: ErebusBat on September 06, 2012, 01:01:47 PM
Considering I don't know you -at all- I would say most know me better lol

I am certainly hoping that you have a good reputation and want to keep it. :)
I have a reputation as a troll first and foremost.
Sounds a lot like "never trust a pirate"  :o


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on September 06, 2012, 03:19:54 PM
Happy days, is Vandroiy already in control of his well-deserved earnings?

No, nanotube says he currently has no access to his offline wallet. Give him some time, I doubt he'd dump the WoT over 10k BTC. ;)

I'm more worried about _matthew_'s (Matthew's?) payment though. The bet with hgmichna does not run up to the 9th, but ended with nanotube's decision on this bet. Now, does he not have access to 250 BTC, or is he not paying "just because"? Both those explanations don't sound very reassuring given that he has a lot of bets timing out soon.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: boonies4u on September 06, 2012, 03:42:16 PM
Considering I don't know you -at all- I would say most know me better lol

I am certainly hoping that you have a good reputation and want to keep it. :)
I have a reputation as a troll first and foremost.
Sounds a lot like "never trust a pirate"  :o

You can trust a pirate to pirate. Just as you can trust a thief to steal and a troll to troll. It's not whether or not they are a trustworthy person, but if you are smart enough to expect the right things from them.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on September 06, 2012, 03:45:06 PM
Happy days, is Vandroiy already in control of his well-deserved earnings?

No, nanotube says he currently has no access to his offline wallet. Give him some time, I doubt he'd dump the WoT over 10k BTC. ;)

I'm more worried about _matthew_'s (Matthew's?) payment though. The bet with hgmichna does not run up to the 9th, but ended with nanotube's decision on this bet. Now, does he not have access to 250 BTC, or is he not paying "just because"? Both those explanations don't sound very reassuring given that he has a lot of bets timing out soon.

You've got 5000 BTC coming to you and you're "worried" about 250BTC? That's....umm


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 06, 2012, 04:22:06 PM
You've got 5000 BTC coming to you and you're "worried" about 250BTC? That's....umm

So basically he trusts Nanotube with 5000 btc more than you with 250 btc..  :o


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on September 06, 2012, 06:25:24 PM
Happy days, is Vandroiy already in control of his well-deserved earnings?

No, nanotube says he currently has no access to his offline wallet. Give him some time, I doubt he'd dump the WoT over 10k BTC. ;)

The WoT is next to worthless now anyway. after all, pirate had the highest rating. Is he still an op in #bitcoin-otc? lol


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on September 06, 2012, 07:34:34 PM
The WoT is next to worthless now anyway. after all, pirate had the highest rating. Is he still an op in #bitcoin-otc? lol

That's not how you use it. This ain't Ebay, there is no "global highest rating". You have to check out *who* rated people highly, and it needs more time to let trusted users make a reputation.

It's trivial to spam 50 small accounts and have them all rate someone 10. Is the resulting 500-rating worth anything? Not really. But the WoT displays much more than that, and this is very useful and should become even more useful with time. Gribble also has a feature to find out how people you trust rated someone.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 06, 2012, 08:06:57 PM
The WoT is next to worthless now anyway. after all, pirate had the highest rating. Is he still an op in #bitcoin-otc? lol

That's not how you use it. This ain't Ebay, there is no "global highest rating". You have to check out *who* rated people highly, and it needs more time to let trusted users make a reputation.

It's trivial to spam 50 small accounts and have them all rate someone 10. Is the resulting 500-rating worth anything? Not really. But the WoT displays much more than that, and this is very useful and should become even more useful with time. Gribble also has a feature to find out how people you trust rated someone.

Its not about the raw rating, but instead the L2 rating.  How well is the person trusted by the people you trust?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: makomk on September 06, 2012, 08:09:33 PM
That's not how you use it. This ain't Ebay, there is no "global highest rating". You have to check out *who* rated people highly, and it needs more time to let trusted users make a reputation.

It's trivial to spam 50 small accounts and have them all rate someone 10. Is the resulting 500-rating worth anything? Not really. But the WoT displays much more than that, and this is very useful and should become even more useful with time. Gribble also has a feature to find out how people you trust rated someone.
The default rating displayed seems to be the global one. In any case, I believe that pirateat40 had positive ratings from a number of trusted members of the community including nanotube. The problem is that the fact that someone's carried out small Bitcoin-Paypal exchanges honestly doesn't mean they're trustworthy to handle a 500,000 BTC investment that looks strangely like a Ponzi. I believe various Silk Road customers may also have discovered this problem with ratings the hard way.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on September 06, 2012, 08:13:10 PM
The WoT is next to worthless now anyway. after all, pirate had the highest rating. Is he still an op in #bitcoin-otc? lol

That's not how you use it. This ain't Ebay, there is no "global highest rating". You have to check out *who* rated people highly, and it needs more time to let trusted users make a reputation.

It's trivial to spam 50 small accounts and have them all rate someone 10. Is the resulting 500-rating worth anything? Not really. But the WoT displays much more than that, and this is very useful and should become even more useful with time. Gribble also has a feature to find out how people you trust rated someone.

Its not about the raw rating, but instead the L2 rating.  How well is the person trusted by the people you trust?

pirate was rated highly by a bunch of other highly-rated people. everyone can see how easy it was to game that whole channel. is pirate still an op there?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on September 06, 2012, 08:22:46 PM
The WoT is next to worthless now anyway. after all, pirate had the highest rating. Is he still an op in #bitcoin-otc? lol

That's not how you use it. This ain't Ebay, there is no "global highest rating". You have to check out *who* rated people highly, and it needs more time to let trusted users make a reputation.

It's trivial to spam 50 small accounts and have them all rate someone 10. Is the resulting 500-rating worth anything? Not really. But the WoT displays much more than that, and this is very useful and should become even more useful with time. Gribble also has a feature to find out how people you trust rated someone.

Its not about the raw rating, but instead the L2 rating.  How well is the person trusted by the people you trust?

pirate was rated highly by a bunch of other highly-rated people. everyone can see how easy it was to game that whole channel. is pirate still an op there?

Yep. People really trust the OTC, wayyy too much. I can downrate you by the color of your skin if I wanted. What kind of a bullshit rating system is that?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nimda on September 06, 2012, 09:04:14 PM
The WoT is next to worthless now anyway. after all, pirate had the highest rating. Is he still an op in #bitcoin-otc? lol

That's not how you use it. This ain't Ebay, there is no "global highest rating". You have to check out *who* rated people highly, and it needs more time to let trusted users make a reputation.

It's trivial to spam 50 small accounts and have them all rate someone 10. Is the resulting 500-rating worth anything? Not really. But the WoT displays much more than that, and this is very useful and should become even more useful with time. Gribble also has a feature to find out how people you trust rated someone.

Its not about the raw rating, but instead the L2 rating.  How well is the person trusted by the people you trust?

pirate was rated highly by a bunch of other highly-rated people. everyone can see how easy it was to game that whole channel. is pirate still an op there?

Yep. People really trust the OTC, wayyy too much. I can downrate you by the color of your skin if I wanted. What kind of a bullshit rating system is that?
That's why you only ever use the "gettrust" command.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 06, 2012, 10:34:14 PM
pirate was rated highly by a bunch of other highly-rated people. everyone can see how easy it was to game that whole channel. is pirate still an op there?

As crazy as this sounds, ops aren't determined by their wot status.  There are several ops with barely any rating and others with a very high rating.  Nanotube is the sole arbiter of who gets ops and when and he tends to be slow, calculating, methodical with all of his decisions.  Just because pirate hasn't had his +o flag removed to date, doesn't mean it won't happen.  I'd suggest you talk to nanotube if its an issue for you.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: muyuu on September 06, 2012, 10:38:58 PM
Yep. People really trust the OTC, wayyy too much. I can downrate you by the color of your skin if I wanted. What kind of a bullshit rating system is that?

Pirate's reputation is quite amusing too. He has a "+5 paid for my burger" making up for several "-1 stole my life savings and murdered my dog". No sense of proportion whatsoever. But if you know the community I guess you can get a good idea. A common pattern is building reputation with small things and then "breaking bad", you can see several such users. Creating another one is just a matter of time and patience.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nimda on September 06, 2012, 10:43:41 PM
Yep. People really trust the OTC, wayyy too much. I can downrate you by the color of your skin if I wanted. What kind of a bullshit rating system is that?

Pirate's reputation is quite amusing too. He has a "+5 paid for my burger" making up for several "-1 stole my life savings and murdered my dog". No sense of proportion whatsoever. But if know the community I guess you can get a good idea. A common pattern is building reputation with small things and then "breaking bad", you can see several such users. Creating another one is just a matter of time and patience.
I gave him a -10 for "defaulted on large loan."


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: smoothie on September 06, 2012, 11:05:49 PM
pirate was rated highly by a bunch of other highly-rated people. everyone can see how easy it was to game that whole channel. is pirate still an op there?

As crazy as this sounds, ops aren't determined by their wot status.  There are several ops with barely any rating and others with a very high rating.  Nanotube is the sole arbiter of who gets ops and when and he tends to be slow, calculating, methodical with all of his decisions.  Just because pirate hasn't had his +o flag removed to date, doesn't mean it won't happen.  I'd suggest you talk to nanotube if its an issue for you.

Most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate". I tend to wonder why as should others here on this forum.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 06, 2012, 11:26:01 PM
Most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate". I tend to wonder why as should others here on this forum.

How was that pro-pirate?  In fact, it wasn't a comment about pirate at all, rather how someone is an op in -otc.  If it was based purely on ratings, sturles or myself would have been ops long ago.  It bothers me to see people criticize wot as being this sham of mechanism, when it isn't intended to be the be all, end all.  Its just another tool when figuring out whether you want to do business with someone. 


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: smoothie on September 06, 2012, 11:32:17 PM
Most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate". I tend to wonder why as should others here on this forum.

How was that pro-pirate?  In fact, it wasn't a comment about pirate at all, rather how someone is an op in -otc.  If it was based purely on ratings, sturles or myself would have been ops long ago.  It bothers me to see people criticize wot as being this sham of mechanism, when it isn't intended to be the be all, end all.  Its just another tool when figuring out whether you want to do business with someone. 

Where did I ever say that that particular post was "pro-pirate"?

I said most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate".

Get your facts straight.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 06, 2012, 11:41:28 PM
Most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate". I tend to wonder why as should others here on this forum.

How was that pro-pirate?  In fact, it wasn't a comment about pirate at all, rather how someone is an op in -otc.  If it was based purely on ratings, sturles or myself would have been ops long ago.  It bothers me to see people criticize wot as being this sham of mechanism, when it isn't intended to be the be all, end all.  Its just another tool when figuring out whether you want to do business with someone. 

Where did I ever say that that particular post was "pro-pirate"?

I said most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate".

Get your facts straight.

Ah, right.  Perhaps you should start your own thread then instead of hijacking this one.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on September 07, 2012, 12:01:07 AM
Most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate". I tend to wonder why as should others here on this forum.

How was that pro-pirate?  In fact, it wasn't a comment about pirate at all, rather how someone is an op in -otc.  If it was based purely on ratings, sturles or myself would have been ops long ago.  It bothers me to see people criticize wot as being this sham of mechanism, when it isn't intended to be the be all, end all.  Its just another tool when figuring out whether you want to do business with someone. 

Where did I ever say that that particular post was "pro-pirate"?

I said most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate".

Get your facts straight.

Ah, right.  Perhaps you should start your own thread then instead of hijacking this one.


This thread has been hijacked since page 2. Both of you are as off topic as each other, so I don't really see a problem with what smoothie wrote. Sorry, imsaguy.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: smoothie on September 07, 2012, 12:18:44 AM
Most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate". I tend to wonder why as should others here on this forum.

How was that pro-pirate?  In fact, it wasn't a comment about pirate at all, rather how someone is an op in -otc.  If it was based purely on ratings, sturles or myself would have been ops long ago.  It bothers me to see people criticize wot as being this sham of mechanism, when it isn't intended to be the be all, end all.  Its just another tool when figuring out whether you want to do business with someone.  

Where did I ever say that that particular post was "pro-pirate"?

I said most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate".

Get your facts straight.

Ah, right.  Perhaps you should start your own thread then instead of hijacking this one.

Good job trying to divert attention away from your obvious support for pirate. Maybe you'll get paid first.  ::)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 07, 2012, 12:25:50 AM
Most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate". I tend to wonder why as should others here on this forum.

How was that pro-pirate?  In fact, it wasn't a comment about pirate at all, rather how someone is an op in -otc.  If it was based purely on ratings, sturles or myself would have been ops long ago.  It bothers me to see people criticize wot as being this sham of mechanism, when it isn't intended to be the be all, end all.  Its just another tool when figuring out whether you want to do business with someone.  

Where did I ever say that that particular post was "pro-pirate"?

I said most of your posts appear to be "pro-pirate".

Get your facts straight.

Ah, right.  Perhaps you should start your own thread then instead of hijacking this one.

Good job trying to divert attention away from your obvious support for pirate. Maybe you'll get paid first.  ::)

Meh, here's my obvious support of pirate: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=103623.msg1138804#msg1138804

I've not shied from that.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: smoothie on September 07, 2012, 12:55:27 AM
Meh, here's my obvious support of pirate: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=103623.msg1138804#msg1138804
I've not shied from that.

Oh you mean like how you supported him in the following links?

Here you ask the mods to provide proof that pirate was a scammer. Hmm lot's has changed since then huh?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91389.msg1006255#msg1006255


Here is a link where you basicly try to tell "nay sayers" to "GTFO" and that "we" aren't asking to be warned.
That faired well now huh. Also that your time was being wasted by people trying to warn others of a possible
ponzi/scam.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg1004814#msg1004814


And here you try to make an analogy of finding an oil well etc. and a ponzi. LOL!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91306.msg1008581#msg1008581


And here where you try to "point out" how a ponzi would operate. Well looks like deposits are restricted eh
given pirate hasn't returned much if anything at all?


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg1006663#msg1006663


Oh and my favorite where you try to use an analogy of apple hiding their products that they are working on
to compare to an operation (BTCST) that hides its BUSINESS MODEL. Apple doesn't even hide their business
model. They sell electronics. Good job trying to debunk that thought to help support BTCST/pirate.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91643.msg1009656#msg1009656


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 07, 2012, 01:36:43 AM
snipped for sake of readability.

Feel better now?  The first link is still a valid request.  Why is there no scammer tag?

As to the rest, so it seems I was wrong.  That doesn't make me responsible.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: smoothie on September 07, 2012, 01:48:22 AM
Oh you mean like how you supported him in the following links?

Here you ask the mods to provide proof that pirate was a scammer. Hmm lot's has changed since then huh?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91389.msg1006255#msg1006255


Here is a link where you basicly try to tell "nay sayers" to "GTFO" and that "we" aren't asking to be warned.
That faired well now huh. Also that your time was being wasted by people trying to warn others of a possible
ponzi/scam.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg1004814#msg1004814


And here you try to make an analogy of finding an oil well etc. and a ponzi. LOL!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91306.msg1008581#msg1008581


And here where you try to "point out" how a ponzi would operate. Well looks like deposits are restricted eh
given pirate hasn't returned much if anything at all?


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg1006663#msg1006663


Oh and my favorite where you try to use an analogy of apple hiding their products that they are working on
to compare to an operation (BTCST) that hides its BUSINESS MODEL. Apple doesn't even hide their business
model. They sell electronics. Good job trying to debunk that thought to help support BTCST/pirate.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91643.msg1009656#msg1009656

Feel better now?  The first link is still a valid request.  Why is there no scammer tag?

As to the rest, so it seems I was wrong.  That doesn't make me responsible.

I always feel good. lol thanks for asking.

If you were an avid participant in collecting investor funds and got a cut of the profits you are responsible in my eyes. All the signs were there and you even tried to tell the nay-sayers to GTFO and to shut up. Why o why? because perhaps there was a chance of your little game going bye bye.

You supported pirate obviously which at some level makes you even at least partially at fault.

Edit: Not only were you wrong but your bogus analogies to support pirate are pathetic. Your logic there actually baffles me on how far you would try to stretch an analogy to make like the idea of investing with pirate a good idea.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 07, 2012, 01:57:46 AM
I always feel good. lol thanks for asking.

If you were an avid participant in collecting investor funds and got a cut of the profits you are responsible in my eyes. All the signs were there and you even tried to tell the nay-sayers to GTFO and to shut up. Why o why? because perhaps there was a chance of your little game going bye bye.

You supported pirate obviously which at some level makes you even at least partially at fault.

Edit: Not only were you wrong but your bogus analogies to support pirate are pathetic. Your logic there actually baffles me on how far you would try to stretch an analogy to make like the idea of investing with pirate a good idea.

Those quotes are over a month old.  The very little I made from the PPT was actually tied up in funds I let lay dormant as insurance.  There was something unique about the first PPT.  Everyone else was just offering lower rates and were the ones who really profited from it.  I sold my PPT interest and exited it.

While you might consider my belief that pirate was doing something legit pathetic, the people that commented after my explanation found it reasonable.  I'm not asking for your forgiveness and at this point, you trolling me about it serves no real purpose. 


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: smoothie on September 07, 2012, 02:33:24 AM
I always feel good. lol thanks for asking.

If you were an avid participant in collecting investor funds and got a cut of the profits you are responsible in my eyes. All the signs were there and you even tried to tell the nay-sayers to GTFO and to shut up. Why o why? because perhaps there was a chance of your little game going bye bye.

You supported pirate obviously which at some level makes you even at least partially at fault.

Edit: Not only were you wrong but your bogus analogies to support pirate are pathetic. Your logic there actually baffles me on how far you would try to stretch an analogy to make like the idea of investing with pirate a good idea.

Those quotes are over a month old.  The very little I made from the PPT was actually tied up in funds I let lay dormant as insurance.  There was something unique about the first PPT.  Everyone else was just offering lower rates and were the ones who really profited from it.  I sold my PPT interest and exited it.

While you might consider my belief that pirate was doing something legit pathetic, the people that commented after my explanation found it reasonable.  I'm not asking for your forgiveness and at this point, you trolling me about it serves no real purpose. 

It's not trolling if I'm pointing out the facts/truth about your stance concerning pirate. All I see from you is backpedaling. Which is quite entertaining. Thanks for that!  :D


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 07, 2012, 08:48:36 AM
How did imsaguy get his VIP badge? I guess we will never get any admission of who paid for it. Who are the people who attained VIP status around the same time? Could it be that they are pirate-preachers?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vladimir on September 07, 2012, 08:57:21 AM
How did imsaguy get his VIP badge? I guess we will never get any admission of who paid for it. Who are the people who attained VIP status around the same time? Could it be that they are pirate-preachers?

And this again brings up the inconvenient matter of some operators of this forum profiting personally from this ponzi scheme, effectively aiding and abetting its proliferation by granting for an extended period of time (while invested themselves) most of the ponzi feeder fund threads a sticky status and then saying something like "I thought it is a ponzi but I risked my money and profited from it, but it is ok"




Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BadBear on September 07, 2012, 09:02:44 AM
How did imsaguy get his VIP badge? I guess we will never get any admission of who paid for it. Who are the people who attained VIP status around the same time? Could it be that they are pirate-preachers?

And this again brings up the inconvenient matter of some operators of this forum profiting personally from this ponzi scheme, effectively aiding and abetting its proliferation by granting for an extended period of time (while invested themselves) most of the ponzi feeder fund threads a sticky status and then saying something like "I thought it is a ponzi but I risked my money and profited from it, but it is ok"




Yeah, those never should have been stickied, I never noticed it until someone brought it up in meta, cause I ignore most stickies. Wish someone had mentioned it earlier.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: imsaguy on September 07, 2012, 03:07:03 PM
How did imsaguy get his VIP badge? I guess we will never get any admission of who paid for it. Who are the people who attained VIP status around the same time? Could it be that they are pirate-preachers?

And this again brings up the inconvenient matter of some operators of this forum profiting personally from this ponzi scheme, effectively aiding and abetting its proliferation by granting for an extended period of time (while invested themselves) most of the ponzi feeder fund threads a sticky status and then saying something like "I thought it is a ponzi but I risked my money and profited from it, but it is ok"




Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

 :-\


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 07, 2012, 03:14:14 PM
… they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Can't hurt to find out who are the snakes. I guess though that to most onlookers the answer is pretty obvious.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: smoothie on September 07, 2012, 05:40:13 PM
How did imsaguy get his VIP badge? I guess we will never get any admission of who paid for it. Who are the people who attained VIP status around the same time? Could it be that they are pirate-preachers?

And this again brings up the inconvenient matter of some operators of this forum profiting personally from this ponzi scheme, effectively aiding and abetting its proliferation by granting for an extended period of time (while invested themselves) most of the ponzi feeder fund threads a sticky status and then saying something like "I thought it is a ponzi but I risked my money and profited from it, but it is ok"




Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Now I know why you had so much bitcoins to "bet" me in my futures contract. You profited from other suckers in your PPT with pirate. LOL

Chicken troll? lol


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mrb on September 08, 2012, 05:46:05 AM
Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Hi reeses, why did you delete almost all your posting history (including the posts where you supported pirateat40)? Your post count is now 17.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on September 08, 2012, 05:50:43 AM
Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Hi reeses, why did you delete almost all your posting history (including the posts where you supported pirateat40)? Your post count is now 17.

He just does. He used to keep his post count post count around 100, now he keeps it around 10 - 20. He claims no nefarious purpose, and he does delete everything eventually without favour. Plus he's quoted pretty often, so deleting all his posts including the quoted ones doesn't really serve a purpose.

He gave an explanation for it here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104999.0


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 08, 2012, 08:29:54 AM
Hi reeses, why did you delete almost all your posting history (including the posts where you supported pirateat40)? Your post count is now 17.

A related phenomenon is that the most ardent pro-pirate posters are now fairly quiet.

Those are the ones who most likely benefitted from the Ponzi scheme, by running a feeder fund or by simply being bribed. Everybody who has followed the relevant threads knows who they are.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: reeses on September 08, 2012, 09:33:10 AM
Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Hi reeses, why did you delete almost all your posting history (including the posts where you supported pirateat40)? Your post count is now 17.

As Donald's hair said, I just do it.  Part of it is getting tired of being involved in the anti-rational drama that peaked with the Ponzi threadstorm and part of it was noticing that I tend to ignore people with high post counts, especially over the 4k level (except Myrkul).  The fact that the forum is rigged and not at all representative of a) the bitcoin community in which I wish to participate or b) the camaraderie of the forum as little as a year ago has reduced its value do me.

We're also coming up on the high holidays, and it's a good time to change unhealthy habits, even if the reasons are secular.  I have a new Pilates instructor whom I need to see in seven hours, so I should get sleep soon. :-)

At any rate, everything I've said that caused any mayhem can be found via search, because it has been quoted, witnessed, or whatever.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mrb on September 08, 2012, 10:01:40 AM
Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Hi reeses, why did you delete almost all your posting history (including the posts where you supported pirateat40)? Your post count is now 17.

As Donald's hair said, I just do it.  Part of it is getting tired of being involved in the anti-rational drama that peaked with the Ponzi threadstorm [...]

Ok. In other words "I defended/supported pirateat40, but I don't want to admit I was wrong, so I am deleting the evidence" :-\


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on September 08, 2012, 10:43:59 AM
Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Hi reeses, why did you delete almost all your posting history (including the posts where you supported pirateat40)? Your post count is now 17.

As Donald's hair said, I just do it.  Part of it is getting tired of being involved in the anti-rational drama that peaked with the Ponzi threadstorm [...]

Ok. In other words "I defended/supported pirateat40, but I don't want to admit I was wrong, so I am deleting the evidence" :-\

Hardy. The evidence is quoted in other posts, he just likes deleting his posts.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: wachtwoord on September 08, 2012, 01:33:13 PM
The forum software should block eitting or deleting posts that arent he last post in a particular thread. This is just annoying Reeses.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 08, 2012, 01:35:39 PM
The forum software should block eitting or deleting posts that arent he last post in a particular thread. This is just annoying Reeses.

I think being able to edit or delete a posting for a limited time after it was first posted makes sense. One hour would be my proposal.

But I doubt that this will be changed soon.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jamesg on September 08, 2012, 03:52:09 PM
The forum software should block eitting or deleting posts that arent he last post in a particular thread. This is just annoying Reeses.

Keep your face-cunt shut, sweetcheeks.  You're attracting flies.

Witnessed.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: jwzguy on September 08, 2012, 04:07:15 PM
The forum software should block eitting or deleting posts that arent he last post in a particular thread. This is just annoying Reeses.

Keep your face-cunt shut, sweetcheeks.  You're attracting flies.

Witnessed.
That's one option. I think I took a better one.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: mrb on September 08, 2012, 09:35:04 PM
Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Hi reeses, why did you delete almost all your posting history (including the posts where you supported pirateat40)? Your post count is now 17.

As Donald's hair said, I just do it.  Part of it is getting tired of being involved in the anti-rational drama that peaked with the Ponzi threadstorm [...]

Ok. In other words "I defended/supported pirateat40, but I don't want to admit I was wrong, so I am deleting the evidence" :-\

Go back and read my posts, you lazy, dishonest fuck.  Then choke on a bucket of cocks.

Quoted for evidence.

You are the one who is irrational and dramatic with your insults. The "bitcoin community in which [you] wish to participate" is being tainted by people like you.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hannesnaude on September 08, 2012, 11:03:03 PM
Go back and read my posts...

Well given that you appear to be doing everything in your admittedly limited power to make going back and reading your posts as hard as possible, you'd excuse us for assuming that that is actually the last thing you want. So we'll just have to go by what we remember you saying.

I'm a dumbass.

Witnessed


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: finkleshnorts on September 09, 2012, 12:56:38 AM
Go back and read my posts...

Well given that you appear to be doing everything in your admittedly limited power to make going back and reading your posts as hard as possible, you'd excuse us for assuming that that is actually the last thing you want. So we'll just have to go by what we remember you saying.

If you cared enough to hold an honest and accurate opinion, you'd use the search box and type in "reeses" or do a site search on google.  However, informed opinions have little value here.


It's much more effective if you quote the whole thing.  I'll give you another chance.

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Hash: SHA1

I am a dumbass.
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Obviously. He's a Mac user.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: grubles on September 09, 2012, 05:01:07 AM
Obviously. He's a Mac user.

You can do better than that.  Take a mulligan.
Hackintosh?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on September 09, 2012, 05:36:01 AM
All he has is vague speculation and assumption (and yes, a large dose of arrogance).  Trying to scare people into withdrawing is a pretty schoolyard tactic.  A lot of it doesnt even make sense, but I guess its only himself he's embarrassing so where's the harm.



Profiting since December myself.

Phantom profits. They're only there if you withdraw first at the others' expense. The clock is ticking..

Yes, yes... Keep lying to yourself. Maybe it will become true. Are you a politician, or?...
And my clocks don't tick.


if pirate is running a ponzi, and takes off, wouldn't that torpedo GPUmax, which looks like it could generate serious revenue once he opens it up to the public (exits beta) ?

Ponzi.

Ah, yes GPUmax is also a ponzi, the 'ol ponzi double down, the 'ol ponzi2

Ponzi. Ponzi.




So...

We went from "BTCST is a ponzi" to "BTCST uses funds to pay GPUMax users to launder coins"?

I mean, a ponzi and a money laundering business are two different things. Money laundering business IS very lucrative. What's the point for investors of withdrawing their money?



http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/24079447.jpg


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: EskimoBob on September 09, 2012, 09:19:51 AM
Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Hi reeses, why did you delete almost all your posting history (including the posts where you supported pirateat40)? Your post count is now 17.

As Donald's hair said, I just do it.  Part of it is getting tired of being involved in the anti-rational drama that peaked with the Ponzi threadstorm [...]

Ok. In other words "I defended/supported pirateat40, but I don't want to admit I was wrong, so I am deleting the evidence" :-\

Go back and read my posts, you lazy, dishonest fuck.  Then choke on a bucket of cocks.

Good riddance, asshat reeses!
Deleting your bull shit? LOL! You are even a bigger joke than I thought you are.  Oh, and do not forget to choke on a bucket of cocks, you dishonest fuck. ;)
And while you are at it, wipe that shit of your nose. Your brown-nosing attempts at some of the biggest crooks in this forum where mediocre at best and almost entertaining.
LOL, deleting post... you are a loser LOL :)
Good riddance asshat!


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on September 09, 2012, 09:21:48 AM
Holy shit, Vladimir, we agree on something! (I'm sure we agree on other things, but we have not discussed beer or space exploration on bitcointalk.)

Forum operators admit to reading pirate's (and other) PMs, have stickied threads, "suggested" creating PPTs (whatever side you fall on with gote or theymos on that one), and have recorded bets with Matthew.  It all creates a big stink.

When people talk about "the BTC community," which I deny truly exists, they are talking about this forum, and it's a snake pit.

Hi reeses, why did you delete almost all your posting history (including the posts where you supported pirateat40)? Your post count is now 17.

As Donald's hair said, I just do it.  Part of it is getting tired of being involved in the anti-rational drama that peaked with the Ponzi threadstorm [...]

Ok. In other words "I defended/supported pirateat40, but I don't want to admit I was wrong, so I am deleting the evidence" :-\

Go back and read my posts, you lazy, dishonest fuck.  Then choke on a bucket of cocks.

Good riddance, asshat reeses!
Deleting your bull shit? LOL! You are even a bigger joke than I thought you are.  Oh, and do not forget to choke on a bucket of cocks, you dishonest fuck. ;)
And while you are at it, wipe that shit of your nose. Your brown-nosing attempts at some of the biggest crooks in this forum where mediocre at best and almost entertaining.
LOL, deleting post... you are a loser LOL :)
Good riddance asshat!


He does tend to be entertaining, and inventive in his invective. Some do not put in half the effort.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on September 09, 2012, 09:37:08 AM
Let us watch out for other pals, who have been entrusted with other peoples monies or ripped off undeserved interest in ponzis, as deleting their own posts, is the preparation for running away

with the loot.

Thanks Zyk


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Chang Hum on September 09, 2012, 07:07:43 PM
Let us watch out for other pals, who have been entrusted with other peoples monies or ripped off undeserved interest in ponzis, as deleting their own posts, is the preparation for running away

with the loot.

Thanks Zyk

Dude, I love how crazy you are.  Might I ask with whose loot would I be escaping?  And I'd be doing a shitty job of erasing my tracks if I deleted posts and pointed out that they were already quoted, inviting people to quote my posts, no?

Now, Tralfamadore, that fucker hid his tracks _well_.

I've been thinking Reeses might be none other than Trafamadore for some time now he's just bigged him up as many criminal multi accounting douchbags do when refering to their alternative secrete pseudonyms. My hypotheses

Reeses = Tralfamadore


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: zyk on September 09, 2012, 07:38:01 PM
Let us watch out for other pals, who have been entrusted with other peoples monies or ripped off undeserved interest in ponzis, as deleting their own posts, is the preparation for running away

with the loot.

Thanks Zyk

Dude, I love how crazy you are.  Might I ask with whose loot would I be escaping?  And I'd be doing a shitty job of erasing my tracks if I deleted posts and pointed out that they were already quoted, inviting people to quote my posts, no?

Now, Tralfamadore, that fucker hid his tracks _well_.

Haven´t you been to Vegas, Dude ?....so instead of deleting posts I´d rather expect you to have added some more to show your interest in honest cammeradery...

or am i becoming to rational here for being let in?? ;)

Thanks Zyk


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hannesnaude on September 10, 2012, 07:47:28 AM
Go back and read my posts...

Well given that you appear to be doing everything in your admittedly limited power to make going back and reading your posts as hard as possible, you'd excuse us for assuming that that is actually the last thing you want. So we'll just have to go by what we remember you saying.

If you cared enough to hold an honest and accurate opinion, you'd use the search box and type in "reeses" or do a site search on google.  However, informed opinions have little value here.

Yeah, I could and that does give me some results. But a lot of  them are not quotes of you, they're others saying shit like "reeses is a dumbass." That's  why I never said that it was impossible to to read your posts, simply that you were making it as hard as you possibly could. That point stands.


-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

I am a dumbass.
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Version: GnuPG/MacGPG2 v2.0.17 (Darwin)
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=4SXY
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

Sense of humour detected. Respect.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on September 10, 2012, 06:19:01 PM
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

I am a dumbass.
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-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Quote
As I think about acts of integrity and grace, I realise that there is nothing in my knowledge to compare with Frege's reeses's dedication to truth. ... upon finding that his fundamental assumption was in error, he responded with intellectual pleasure clearly submerging any feelings of personal disappointment. It was almost superhuman....
-- Bertrand Russell


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 10, 2012, 10:14:43 PM
I have a reputation as a troll first and foremost.

Least confidence-building thing you've said all week, Matt. :(

That will be corrected when he will have paid out his bets.

And he hasn't.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 10, 2012, 10:17:00 PM
Happy days, is Vandroiy already in control of his well-deserved earnings?

No, nanotube says he currently has no access to his offline wallet. Give him some time, I doubt he'd dump the WoT over 10k BTC. ;)

I'm more worried about _matthew_'s (Matthew's?) payment though. The bet with hgmichna does not run up to the 9th, but ended with nanotube's decision on this bet. Now, does he not have access to 250 BTC, or is he not paying "just because"? Both those explanations don't sound very reassuring given that he has a lot of bets timing out soon.

Vandroiy seems to be right again. "Matthew N. Wright" has not paid.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: hgmichna on September 10, 2012, 10:24:45 PM
… use the Vandroiy bet conditions, because they are clearly laid out and fine-tuned. If Vandroiy wins his BTC5,000, you pay me, if Vandroiy loses, I pay you. …

I accept your conditions. I'm betting 10,000BTC already in another thread however, although at the moment of writing this, 4995.89114457 BTC has been bet leaving me with 5004.10885543 BTC left to bet with. Name your bet please.

Let's leave it at BTC250 then. That's about my limit without escrow.

This is my offer. If you accept it, we have a deal.

Agreed. For my own accounting purposes I will add it to the same spreadsheet as I use for other betters of the betting thread, but I concede publicly that it is in fact a separate bet entirely and an exact mimc of the strict guidelines in Vandroiy and Pirate's bet. Good luck!

Time to pay up. I am sending my bitcoin address to you by PM.

I'm still curious why you made this hopeless bet. Care to explain? Did you get messages from the pirate that sounded so believable that you fell for them?

My suspicion looks quite realistic now. Where are my bitcoins?

I guess "Matthew N. Wright" has disappeared now too.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on September 11, 2012, 11:29:39 AM
Fascinating.  I thought he would have at least paid out your "unusual" bet, given (as I recall) the earlier decision date.  You should have sent up the red flag.  :P

What is the legality of Internet betting in this situation in general?  Were this not "a whole joke" would at least bettors in the USA be breaking the law?  Despite theymos's statement about the "site" not being in the states, citizens are subject to the boot on the neck its rule of law.

Since we seem to like gambling here, does anyone know the score?  Are we OK (in the LR sense) because btc is not yet recognized as a store of value by any particular jurisdictions?

Not that I bet btc.  I only bet noogies.

For all the reasonable jurisdictions I know of, contracts can involve all kinds of things. Might as well wager to perform a funny dance or something, you still have to do it if you lose. If a law does not punish breaking such contracts, the law is wrong.

I know a lot of the people would have paid Matthew if Pirate had miraculously conjured up coins. While I didn't believe that was possible, some people did, so from their perspective, Matthew broke contracts and fed the community misinformation. That constitutes a criminal. He probably bets on nobody coming to SK to sue him, or that an online forum and IRC network might not officially suffice as evidence.

Good to see he is no longer on the staff of the Bitcoin Magazine or on the list of speakers for London.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: BadBear on September 11, 2012, 11:33:08 AM
He also had his mod position in Korean forum removed since he can't be trusted.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Puppet on September 11, 2012, 11:36:42 AM
http://i.imgur.com/3Xx97.png

One of few worthy of that title. Vandroiy, can I have your signature?
(preferably a digital one that unlocks those 10000 BTC :) )


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on September 12, 2012, 03:51:20 AM
http://i.imgur.com/3Xx97.png

One of few worthy of that title. Vandroiy, can I have your signature?
(preferably a digital one that unlocks those 10000 BTC :) )

Did Vandroiy collect his winnings from nanotube yet?


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nanotube on September 16, 2012, 11:01:39 PM
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

The bet has now been paid out to Vandroiy, with 10000 BTC sent to the address he has provided me in a signed message. This concludes my duties as the escrow/arbiter of this transaction. Expect Vandroiy to post a signed message acknowledging receipt in a few days, once he gets back from the London conference.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----

iEYEARECAAYFAlBWWGoACgkQ5/k4vslVlLJirACglw0z4wnOodhkhRpsmCYYbec7
s+0AoIXurXIKwW3H7w9YTPZ9rmzlFT9B
=lRSg
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: elux on September 16, 2012, 11:12:25 PM
Vandroiy: Speech? :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: toffoo on September 17, 2012, 12:42:48 AM
But I can.  Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

Classic.  Is this the most expensive sentence ever typed into this forum?

At current $/BTC exchange rates, this was a pretty hefty bet by any yard stick.  I'm surprised we haven't seen any mainstream press pick up this story.  I can just see the headline, "Local Man Wins $119,000 In Bet With Ponzi Operator".


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on September 17, 2012, 01:17:34 AM
But I can.  Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

Classic.  Is this the most expensive sentence ever typed into this forum?

At current $/BTC exchange rates, this was a pretty hefty bet by any yard stick.  I'm surprised we haven't seen any mainstream press pick up this story.  I can just see the headline, "Local Man Wins $119,000 In Bet With Ponzi Operator".


He only won $59, 900 since the other half of the $59, 900 was already his.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: bitcoinBull on September 17, 2012, 02:48:54 AM
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

The bet has now been paid out to Vandroiy, with 10000 BTC sent to the address he has provided me in a signed message. This concludes my duties as the escrow/arbiter of this transaction. Expect Vandroiy to post a signed message acknowledging receipt in a few days, once he gets back from the London conference.
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=lRSg
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

respect. Next time, how about restricting operator privileges in #bitcoin-otc to more neutral parties? Not a user running the biggest scam on the scene.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dust on September 17, 2012, 02:51:33 AM
But I can.  Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.

Classic.  Is this the most expensive sentence ever typed into this forum?

At current $/BTC exchange rates, this was a pretty hefty bet by any yard stick.  I'm surprised we haven't seen any mainstream press pick up this story.  I can just see the headline, "Local Man Wins $119,000 In Bet With Ponzi Operator".
BurtW's BTC10k bet was bigger, although there is no proof he deposited that amount: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=97094.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=97094.0)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: myrkul on September 17, 2012, 02:55:54 AM
Next time, how about restricting operator privileges in #bitcoin-otc to more neutral parties? Not a user running the biggest scam on the scene.

Scam, not scam, doesn't matter. People with a vested interest in silencing detractors probably shouldn't be able to at a whim.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: reeses on September 17, 2012, 03:58:51 AM
Next time, how about restricting operator privileges in #bitcoin-otc to more neutral parties? Not a user running the biggest scam on the scene.

Scam, not scam, doesn't matter. People with a vested interest in silencing detractors probably shouldn't be able to at a whim.

That's a safe rule at any time.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: organofcorti on September 17, 2012, 06:32:49 AM
Next time, how about restricting operator privileges in #bitcoin-otc to more neutral parties? Not a user running the biggest scam on the scene.

Scam, not scam, doesn't matter. People with a vested interest in silencing detractors probably shouldn't be able to at a whim.

That's a safe rule at any time.

You should probably be allowed to silence anyone who makes fun of your hair though.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: reeses on September 17, 2012, 06:42:59 AM
Next time, how about restricting operator privileges in #bitcoin-otc to more neutral parties? Not a user running the biggest scam on the scene.

Scam, not scam, doesn't matter. People with a vested interest in silencing detractors probably shouldn't be able to at a whim.

That's a safe rule at any time.

You should probably be allowed to silence anyone who makes fun of your hair though.

Making fun of hair sounds off topic to me.
 
I apologize, I did not realize I was speaking to Donald Trump all this time.  I thought I was speaking to his hair.

I'm a big fan of silencing people who take a purpose-oriented channel and treating it as a salon.  One can create -talk or -chat channels if they want to talk about fartpeppers 99.9% of the time. (Assuming the channel is not #fartpeppers)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Vandroiy on September 17, 2012, 11:06:36 PM
Code:
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

nanotube has sent the escrowed 10'000 BTC for the bet concerning BS&T default.

This concludes the bet. Thank you, nanotube, for being a great arbiter and operating the #bitcoin-otc Web of Trust.

With no meaning attached, I sign the word "Puppet" along with this message. Tadah! ;D

2012-09-18
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Vandroiy: Speech? :)

Yea, I probably should do some concluding post. On a lot of things. But not now, just got back from London. (Which was awesome. :) )


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: Puppet on September 17, 2012, 11:16:36 PM
wOOt. Now I have to make a tshirt with that hash :)


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: nanotube on September 17, 2012, 11:18:11 PM
Signature verified. Thank you Vandroiy for the confirmation.

Code:
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

nanotube has sent the escrowed 10'000 BTC for the bet concerning BS&T default.

This concludes the bet. Thank you, nanotube, for being a great arbiter and operating the #bitcoin-otc Web of Trust.

With no meaning attached, I sign the word "Puppet" along with this message. Tadah! ;D

2012-09-18
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Vandroiy: Speech? :)

Yea, I probably should do some concluding post. On a lot of things. But not now, just got back from London. (Which was awesome. :) )


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: dooglus on September 18, 2012, 12:15:37 AM
Yea, I probably should do some concluding post. On a lot of things. But not now, just got back from London. (Which was awesome. :) )

Thanks for having the courage to put your money where your mouth is.

Hopefully the strength of your conviction was enough to keep at least some suckers away from the scam.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: MarlboroMan on March 19, 2013, 08:23:59 PM
With a corporate bond, the company itself is the borrower. And all the lenders (bond buyers) know the business of the company selling the bond. Apple might not release schematics and construction details of the iPad, but all their devices being sold in stores is evidence of actual profit generation. That's the extraordinary evidence which everyone can see.

Of course, even with AAA ratings it turned out that all the mortgage-backed-securities was a just a network of ponzi paper (the largest in history). And companies selling shares on stock exchanges much more reputable than GLBSE turn out to be fraudulent. Look at the report on Huabao, China's largest flavor and fagrance company by Anon Analytics.

Watch some episodes of American Greed, my favorite one is The Rise and Fall of CyberNet. The guy created fake invoices of big orders from Boeing, IBM, etc. to convince banks that he had their business. When the bankers came for a visit, he gave them a tour of his datacenter of server racks and blinking LEDs. It turned out the boxes were empty! No actual servers, just blinking LEDs. And with that the banks became his lenders.

Most of the other episodes are much more mundane ponzi schemes ripping off far less sophisticated "investors". Fraud is so commonplace among people offering returns that its the rule. Not the exception.

Butterfly Labs took pre-orders and everyone was rightly skeptical. Then they shipped (extraordinary evidence). Same for Bitcoin Magazine. Does BitInstant or Bit-Pay, or MtGox or Bitcoinica or Bitstamp offer returns to investors? [edit: i mean crazy returns to most any investor]. Hell, does Silk Road? No, because those are all businesses actually generating profit.


Title: Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.
Post by: strello on March 19, 2013, 08:58:40 PM
I think maybe you stumbled into the wrong thread here, MarlboroMan!