Bitcoin Forum

Excuse me if my understanding of things is a bit off, I'm fairly new to the Bitcoin world. I want to know how people analyze trends and look at price charts to determine when the right time to buy or sell BTC is. I'm eager to buy some bitcoins just to experiment with them, but first I want to make sure I'm not doing it at a bad time. I assume a basic understanding of economics would come in handy?

Any tricks, tips, or resources on this subject you could point me towards would be appreciated.  :)

From what I can tell, you'll get a whole lot of opinions on whether it's going up or going down but nobody knows squat.  The greatest minds will wax poetic about the reasons for the surge/fall just after said surge/fall happens.  You can look at charts and see for yourself that btc is a very volatile market.  Just start out small with a few small transactions and get a feel for it yourself.

Ok, good enough. Thanks. I've heard some talk that the price can noticeably increase when there's a story on a popular source like Forbes or Wired that puts Bitcoin in a positive light.  ::)

Be careful - very many people lose money by going with their untrained "feel" for trading. I recommend that you learn the fundamentals of technical analysis. I picked it up from various sources on the net, primarily from professional traders who blog, tweet, etc. Here are a few books you might consider.
 
http://www.technicalanalysisbook.com/

http://www.amazon.com/The-StockTwits-Edge-Actionable-Set-Ups/dp/1118029054

I'm not positive they are the best out there, but they are at least written by successful professional traders.

If you are just looking to trade BTC and nothing else, there are a few subscription services that offer guidance for this

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74587.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.0

Haven't tried them myself, but you can look through the threads to gauge how people like the service. Assuming they are any good, they will almost certainly save you money vs going it alone by helping you avoid costly mistakes.

The right time to buy them is: the sooner the better (i.e. now).

The right time to sell them is: never. Although the right time to start spending (or living off) your Bitcoin fortune will probably be in several (e.g. 4-5) years from now.

when you want bitcoins, it is time to buy
when you want fiat money, it is time to sell

i think this may not be the best time to buy ,if someone bought yesterday he could have paid almost 10 USD per coin

which crashed rapidly to 7.xx something

there may be a bit more buying in the 7's and even high 6 's

Thanks, this is exactly what I was looking for. I'll do some reading.

In my opinion, its very worthwhile to look into trends of other financial institutions.  Although BTC is still quite new, it seems to be following common patterns that the US dollar, EURO and GBP have been following for a long time.  It's my belief that due to the completely digital distribution of BTC, lazy lawmakers aren't hindering the growth and evolution of BTC.

Totally agree with Dargo that technical factors can drive the market, but IMO these tend to be short term. On top of technicals you should consider fundamental supply and demand.  I'm sure one of the contributory factors to the recent rises has been the increased difficulty of short-selling without Bitcoinica. I also think there's increased attractiveness in the currency since talk of capital controls in Europe started, and the general level of awareness of Bitcoin rises all the time... most important thing of all is to do your own research, which you're already doing... so good luck.

Just make sure any money used to "invest" is money that you would be willing to set on fire too.

Thanks everyone, appreciate all the responses.

I gave up trying to analyze trends and indicators in deciding when to buy or sell. But there are a couple of tips I follow.

• Don't buy during a rally.
• Sell anytime.

.

I'm doing the second thing because I'm running an exchange and remittance service, and it's not going to be optimal for speculators. This kind of lazy trading, however, gives me more time to learn Javascript and tend my potted plants.

if we are talking about books...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator

This. ^^^

Most of you noobs do not realise that your emotions will be your downfall, just a matter of time.

P.S. I also do like what Kazimir said above.

"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."

Thanks for the tip, Vladimir.

Interesting book. Thanks for mentioning it.

Yes, that book is a must read and very entertaining. But it won't give you anything very specific on technical analysis. I also think that Kazimir is right about bitcoin in the sense that most people will do best just by buying and holding. Still, I think someone who is adept at trading can trade the shorter-term price action and ultimately end up with a much larger position than a straight buy-and-holder. 

You can't. Unless you're using a bot, don't even bother trading for profit.
Trading experience can give you a little edge but there's no way you can beat bot's instant calculation and speed.

lol

A bot on a major exchange or on bitcoin site like GLBSE? You would have to be correct to avoid HYIPs