I think you have overreacted to every market up and down movement since you got here, now your overreacting to the market staying still, you would be one of those wall street guys that jumps out the window 

chill out man 

all technical analysis is psychology?    I thought it was more complicated and likely beyond my current understanding  

I was telling him my theory was psychological rather than technical, because i didn't come up with it from the market charts, I am no expert at all, I don't know how to correctly read the indicators and signals  and would have reached the same conclusion with no charts, thats all I meant, how should I have worded it? 

also, do you think the bot held the market back here(stopping the slow steady rising that might have kicked off panic buying), or was it just the anti climactic conference? 

It could definitely go back down(looks likely), that's why I said they are holding cash and waiting(very sensible right now), I'm sure lots of people got money into the exchanges ahead of time for this conference, so they could move fast to buy if the market went that way, just that mentality and the ready cash is why I think It wouldn't take much upwards movement for everyone to just jump on, rather than let it get away from them,  it could be now, or tuesday, or it could go down to 9.5/10 and from there a rally to 11 again and that could be the trigger, It's more psychological than technical analysis, and we could also just watch it slowly fall forever   it's that rally trigger that's needed.

pretty much,

probably loads of people with cash at the ready right now, they see the signs for a rally,  they are just waiting to see if it will go back down first, nothing wrong with that, it wouldn't take much upwards movement for us all to jump on thinking if we miss it, it could be $16 in an hour  myself included, how far would YOU let it go before you jumped on? 11.6 11.9? 

hehe 3 minute blocks    I don't know if you can do anything about it either 

I think the real reason GeniuSxBoY doesn't like trading bots is he hasn't been able to post "BUY!! BUY!! BUY!!" or "SELL! SELL! SELL!!1"  lately and he's getting withdrawal symptoms. 

On the plus side!!

maybe the super stable prices was actually good, even if it was only for today, since the main day of the bitcoin conference was today, if there was any "real" press there and they took part in paying for multiple things throughout the day with btc they would have found the conversions very consistent  instead of the normal chaos of up and down that makes spending them seem a bit daunting and a potential problem for merchants accepting them   

24/48 hr seems pretty quick to me  I take it that's using the "faster payments" system? and does your GBP sent in to the uk bank account get credited on the weekends normally? I ask because the faster payments thing works on weekends but if nobody at mtgox's end is checking till weekdays it wont matter.

if it did go up slow and steady, after a while It would start to look like a safe investment, and the speculators would be all over it, driving the price up , which would cause panic buying then eventually the surge runs out of steam... oh no!  SELL! SELL! SELL!

is that pattern even avoidable?

I wasn't attacking the OP about the head and shoulder's pattern I had already saw it, it was just the big crayon lines on the chart I was lightly mocking 






"*scribble* *scribble* Check out this diagram folks,  we are clearly bullish! BUY BUY!"


hehe

 

jk settle down

very professional thick coloured lines, not like a 5 year old kid that found the crayons at all 

hmm 10~10.5 maybe?

its all panic and confidence in the bitcoin market, nothing to ease your mind here sorry 

think if it gets to 13 we're good to keep going, if it can't get past current resistant between 12 and 13 it wont take long till the fear is back, and we might be back testing that 6 again 

have fun 

also chodpaba's time series analysis says we're not getting past 12's between now and Thursday, thought it's still a bit experimental  he was spot on about a few things though.

of course you can predict irrationality, don't you have any stupid friends that are predictably irrational?

you're think of another word or something, maybe "unlikely" or "improbable" thinking if you can see it coming it's not improbable anymore, but irrational isn't the same, people can be predictably irrational and that's nothing to do with this market 

so back down to 8/9.5 by Thursday?  ,  I'm pretty sure that's past a lot of people's stop losses now, I think if were back at 8 were going even lower.

the mystery investor knew what he was doing, pushing to the right level at the right time creating lots of confidence in the market, maybe he kicked off a rally after all, need to watch this close  still worried he was just showing us what we want to see though,

I don't think he did that bad either, the 120k investor threw a spanner in the works prediction wise, but without that he was pretty close, you can't predict everything in a tiny market there is so many early adoptors have massive amounts of coins if something happens in there life and they need cash ASAP or a large investor suddenly want's in, it will mess up ALL predictions.

and the

2011-08-14   $9.207   $10.130
2011-08-15   $8.808   $9.490
2011-08-16   $8.840   $9.133
2011-08-17   $8.775   $9.295

predictions

I was looking at that earlier wondering if we could manage get up to $10 for your "2011-08-14   $9.207   $10.130" prediction and here we are, so don't give up chodpaba there is definitely something to your type of analysis.

lot of activity in the last minutes  every penny counts

I would feel a little safer if it was a gradual increase after we were all sure the decline was over, it still feels we could slip back down any minute

the investor will likely just sell back out if he see's he hasn't kicked off a rally, The fear of going through 10 then free falling to 5's again will be on his mind. its on ficken mine 

that's what I meant, taking advantage of inexperienced traders in an unregulated environment.