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101  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin in Somalia ? on: August 08, 2013, 10:09:40 PM
Apparently they have internet coverage in 53% of the country.
http://www.balancingact-africa.com/news/en/issue-no-345/top-story/somalia-s-civil-war/en

And about 1% of the population is connected to internet according to wikipedia (in 2009 that is).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_in_Somalia#Internet

Quote
After the start of the civil war, various new telecommunications companies began to spring up in the country and competed to provide missing infrastructure.[1] Somalia now offers some of the most technologically advanced and competitively priced telecommunications and internet services in the world.[2] Funded by Somali entrepreneurs and backed by expertise from China, Korea and Europe, these nascent telecommunications firms offer affordable mobile phone and internet services that are not available in many other parts of the continent.

Besides, everyone doesn't need direct internet access. If an equivalent to M-Pesa using bitcoin started, cell phone access would be enough.

Seems like a lot of people let their prejudices come in the way of actual analysis of the situation here. They may not be there quite yet, but considering their growth it doesn't seem like that bad of an idea for an entrepreneurial somali to start a bitcoin company that makes transactions easy for people there.

Interesting read:
Better off stateless

Edit: Another point. While internet and cell phone access is still a lot better in Kenya, there are other things that speak in favour of Somalia for Bitcoin adaption. First, the competition is far from as established as in Kenya, and second Somalis do suffer heavily from inflation. These two factors together speaks heavily in Bitcoins favour. As internet and cell phone coverage continue to increase at the rapid pace it is currently doing, a bitcoin company could be a force to reckon with offering a low cost, inflation proof and international payment method.
102  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-08-07 Bitcoin Startup ArtaBit Working On Cheaper Alternative To WU on: August 08, 2013, 05:17:34 PM
I think you miss my point. I'm sure his heart is in the right place, and my issue has nothing to do with US regulations.

The problem here is that remittance markets are to a large extent one-directional. This means that unless you have a steady outflow of bitcoins in the recieving country, sooner or later you will have an over-supply of bitcoins which will be reflected in its price. This is a market phonomena, not caused by US regulations. It's what happens when a good flows in one direction only.

So even if you can undercut all the competition in fees, what are you supposed to do once the exchange rate of bitcoins in the recieving country is 10% lower than in the US, essentially adding a 10% fee from the perspective of the customers?

A functioning market would arbitrage away the difference in the exchange rate, but often, the very reason remittance is so expensive is because the recieving country doesn't have good banking infrastructure in place, meaning arbitragers will have a hard time to do this. The only way to avoid this is if the recieving country has a domestic market for bitcoins that makes them flow out of the country to the same extent they are flowing into it. This is out of the remittance company's control.
103  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-08-07 Bitcoin Startup ArtaBit Working On Cheaper Alternative To WU on: August 08, 2013, 02:59:26 PM
I would really like to see something like this take off. There is a hidden but very real problem with this though.

Who is going to buy the bitcoins in the recieving country? If there is a heavy inflow of bitcoins from one geographic area to another it will start to cause a difference in the price between the two areas. In functioning markets, some people will see this opportunity to make a profit through arbitrage, however the very reason that remittance is so expensive to some countries is that their markets aren't functioning properly. So unless there is a steady outflow of bitcoins in the recieving country I'm afraid remittance actually won't get much cheaper with bitcoins, only that the fee will become hidden in the exchange rate.
104  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-08-05 Why bitcoins are 60% more expensive in Argentina than the US on: August 06, 2013, 03:20:17 PM
The article adresses that though (and it seems like they changed the headline).

Quote
In Argentina, a bitcoin costs around 921.48 pesos (ARS), which is equivalent to $166.97 if you use the Argentine government’s exchange rate of 5.5 ARS to the dollar or $115.23 if using the black market or ‘blue dollar’ rate of around 8 ARS to the dollar.

So they still pay a mark-up of about 10 USD.
105  Economy / Gambling / Re: Predictious - Prediction Market Launching this Afternoon on: July 15, 2013, 07:36:25 PM
I've been waiting for this, and this site looks great.

However:

Quote
7.0 FEES  7.1 Pixode charges a transaction fee for each trade on Predictious.
No shit. I've been looking everywhere to try and find how big the fee is without success. Could you clarify this?

Secondly, I'm interested in market data for your bets. Mostly I'm just missing the market depth, but trading history and such would be really nice to have as well.
106  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Firmcoins - A new kind of Bitcoin physical bill ready for off-line transactions on: July 10, 2013, 06:41:40 PM
Excellent.

I've pretty much had thoughts about this exact product, only lacking the technical know-how to actually create it.

First thought, how secure is the key generation in this? I'm thinking partly about the generation algorithm (deterministic? random?), but also on what kind of guarantees customers have that you aren't saving all your keys somewhere.

Second thought, you could make these cards even more trust-free by using 2-of-2 transactions, where one key is generated by the card and the other is generated by the customer's own device. Thus, when I recieve a card I generate a key by myself and give it to the card and therefore know that you can't steal my funds. If I give the card to someone else as payment he knows I can't steal the funds since I don't have access to the key generated by the card.

Is there any clever protection against fooling the card making it think it has funds when it doesn't? The card would have to rely on data from your own device, so how come you can't just create a new key and tell the card it's funded?

Edit: All the bolded was answered to satisfaction by simply reading your FAQ.  Smiley

Only one of my questions remains then. What is the life expectancy of these cards and how durable are they?
107  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crisis in Argentine on: June 10, 2013, 11:08:36 AM
Of course, after all of these hassles, fees, travel costs, and the inherent criminality of it all.... gains are minimal to non-existant. Risk is uber-high.
This is where bitcoin can come in. Smuggling bitcoins is really low risk compared to USD. Of course, the hassles, fees and travel costs are still an issue. But if someone is traveling from the US to Argentine anyway for whatever reason, buying some BTC beforehand could be a really good deal. If you ever visit the states you could look at BTC as an alternative to USD without the big risks of getting caught.
108  Economy / Economics / Re: Some dilemma regarding investments and social welfare in an all bitcoin economy on: May 26, 2013, 09:28:52 PM
1. Assume perfect competition (reasonable assumption for analysis), no firm invests (I) today unless tomorrows revenue (R) is higher than the investment.

3. In perfect competition, I = R because both firms (or any number of n firms) will invest up to a point just below I > R.
This is wrong. Firms will invest to the point where their revenue equals the natural rate of interest, which is determined by peoples time preferences.

That is, firms do not only require that R>I to invest. They require that R>k*I where k would be the natural rate of interest. Money today is worth more than money tomorrow. Interest rates are the market price for time, and that price is not 0 as you assume.

Note that in my model, money is capped to 1 (divisible infinitely). We can't expand money. So there's no inflation. Not sure how we would get interest here.


Sorry but if money is capped then won't money today be worth more than money tomorrow? Think about it, if you could only ever have 1 dollar divided in between everyone in the world, wouldn't your portion tomorrow be worth more than it is today? Today I invest 50 bitcoins buying 1 ASICMiner blade, but I know I will never even get 50 bitcoins back (exponentially rising difficulty, more people getting asics, BFL to ship, etc). So I don't invest. No reasonable person would invest 50 bitcoins today to get some <50 bitcoins in the future. So I require R>I to invest. Wouldn't you?

How are there interest rates in a world where money is finite?
Interest is the price of time. Time is a scarce valuable resource, thus it will have a price as all scarce valuable resources do. You can have interest rates on the lending of any good. I can lend you a hammer, and demand 2 hammers in return, the second hammer being the interest. What that says is simply that the time I won't be able to use my hammer is worth an extra hammer, and it's up to you to either accept or refuse this offer.

It's simply more effective to lend money in most cases, and the same principle applies. If I lend you one bitcoin I will require more than 1 bitcoin in return. The time where I won't be able to use my bitcoin has value. That value is priced as the interest rate. In a market for lending I will look for those who give me the best offer.

Besides we already have interest in the bitcoin economy, see BitFinex. Explain why that would just dissappear if the supply got capped right now.

You are also confusing price with value. 1 Bitcoin today is always worth more than 1 Bitcoin tomorrow. 1 bitcoin today could actually be saved and used tomorrow, but the opposite is not true, so 1 bitcoin today gives you more options. 1 bitcoin tomorrow likely has a higher price though, but that is a different thing.
109  Economy / Economics / Re: Some dilemma regarding investments and social welfare in an all bitcoin economy on: May 26, 2013, 04:42:44 PM
1. Assume perfect competition (reasonable assumption for analysis), no firm invests (I) today unless tomorrows revenue (R) is higher than the investment.

3. In perfect competition, I = R because both firms (or any number of n firms) will invest up to a point just below I > R.
This is wrong. Firms will invest to the point where their revenue equals the natural rate of interest, which is determined by peoples time preferences.

That is, firms do not only require that R>I to invest. They require that R>k*I where k would be the natural rate of interest. Money today is worth more than money tomorrow. Interest rates are the market price for time, and that price is not 0 as you assume.
110  Economy / Economics / Re: [OPINION] Despite being inherently deflationary, bitcoin supports spending.. on: May 25, 2013, 09:50:38 AM
...snip...
The value of Bitcoin won't always be rising. Do you see why?

The very idea of a deflationary currency is that it always rises in spending power over time.

The markets should know that this will happen, so they should price it in and move the change in spending power from the future to the present.

Put another way, if the average Bitcoin trader thought the Bitcoin would be at $260 this time next year, why is some chump on MtGox willing to hand over his Bitcoin to you for $130? And who are all the other morons who are standing by and letting you take $260 of money off the said chump for $130, rather than offering to take it off his hands for $140?
Yes, but only to the degree where the discounted price gives you the natural rate of interest as a return on your bitcoin investment.

If the expected return on the average investment is 7% yearly, and the expected price of bitcoin is 260 USD in one year, then a bitcoin today should be valued at ~242 USD (242*1.07=~260). Buying a bitcoin for more than that means you will lose out since there are better investment options availible. By extension the 260 USD price needs to be calculated by discounting the expected price 2 years from now.

You are completely right about your next point that the rationale behind hoarding and buying is basically the same, and that if no one uses bitcoin the price will simply rise until they are inclined to do so.


OnT, a deflationary currency promotes savings in another way than an inflationary one. As the purchasing power of bitcoin increases people get wealthier. This means that their marginal utility of money is reduced and thus are more inclined to spend. Bitcoin promotes a get rich first, spend later philosophy rather than a spend now, never get rich one.

The thing people often forgets is that saving does not mean you refrain from spending, it means you postpone spending. Reduced spending in the present means increased spending in the future. A Bitcoin economy means more total spending, just not now.
111  Economy / Goods / Re: Philips Hue starter pack + 1 extra bulb on: May 19, 2013, 01:09:21 PM
Saw this last year and I've wanted to pick up a starter pack... the bulbs though.. godamn they're expensive!
They are expensive. Though their long life time and low wattage saves you some of that money back in time.

So no takers on this? I thought the bitcoin community would be a good community for high tech lighting. This offer is basically the starter pack + 1 extra light bulb for free.

The lights have an open API which provides som interesting uses. They are cool for parties as well. Smiley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsb7CnrBg74
112  Economy / Speculation / Re: WebMoney starts processing Bitcoins on: May 18, 2013, 07:00:10 PM
2,2% total. Is that a lot?
Not compared to the average gain in value bitcoin has had in the past years.
113  Economy / Goods / Philips Hue starter pack + 1 extra bulb on: May 17, 2013, 05:15:44 PM
During a spending spree in the states I recently managed to aquire, among other things, some Philips Hue lightbulbs. However, for reasons I'd rather not state (I'm simply stupid), I didn't really think about the fact that they won't work back here in Europe with our 220V jacks. So I have no choice but to sell them back to the states.

For those who don't know what Philips Hue is it's light bulbs that you can dim and change colors that are controlled via wifi.

See this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvbAoELl7XU&t=1m45s

They are currently only sold at Apple:
http://store.apple.com/us/product/HA779VC/A/philips-hue-connected-bulb-starter-pack

So what I'm selling is the starter pack with the control unit and 3 lightbulbs + 1 extra bulb for a total of 4 bulbs. The packages are opened but never used.

They are yours for a bitcoin amount corresponding to 200 USD at the time of purchase (costs ~260 USD in store). Shipping is on me. I can ship first to a trusted user, otherwise I'll require escrow.

First come, first served.
114  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-05-08 Engadget Primed: The rise (and rise?) of Bitcoin on: May 09, 2013, 03:39:49 PM
Whenever someon mentions the deal with deflation, people should just start linking this study from the Minneapolis Fed:

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr331.pdf
Quote
Here we examine the empirical relationship between deflation and depression in a broad
historical context, including but not limited to the Great Depression. We use a panel data set on
inflation and real output growth for 17 countries and more than 100 years. To focus on mediumterm
fluctuations, we break the time series on inflation and real output growth for each country
into five-year episodes, and for each episode, we compute the average annual inflation rate and the
average annual real output growth rate. For any episode, we define a deflation as a negative average
inflation rate and a depression as a negative average real output growth rate. Throughout, we
restrict attention to moderate inflations, those with average annual inflation below 20 percent.

Our main finding is that the only episode in which we find evidence of a link between de-
flation and depression is the Great Depression (1929—34). We find virtually no evidence of such
a link in any other period.

The inflation argument is dead, both logically and empirically.
115  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Nerds will rule the world. Soon on: May 08, 2013, 09:06:29 PM
How can a small box of candies rule the world?



Haha, very good.

But back to the subject, I do believe they have the potential to 'rule the world' but as a geek, I wouldn't want to rule the world, to much responsibility, to much laws, too much wars.
Saying that, I would like to create my own island and community, so I guess I have mixed opinions lol.
Just program a Sim City World like interface for your ruling. That way it will just seem like a video game rather than world ruling.
116  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: New danish bitcoin Exchange (www.peoplemooney.com) on: May 08, 2013, 08:14:26 PM
The reason was simply that the domain name PeopleMoney.com was taken and we had to be creative in making an unique name for the service.
I mean no offence but this sounds kind of ironic.  Smiley

Anyway, it might be worth it to reconsider the name. What if someone makes a phishing site with the "normal" spelling?

We like the name, and it will not be changed.

Of course people have to use www.peoplemooney.com to get to our service.
There is nothing wrong with the name really. I'm just worried from a security standpoint that someone with bad intent could get a hold of the peoplemoney.com domain, which would be somewhat worse than a regular phishing attempt since someone without good knowledge of your site could think that you are the fake. I still love the initiative since more exchanges are badly needed.
117  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: New danish bitcoin Exchange (www.peoplemooney.com) on: May 08, 2013, 06:50:30 PM
The reason was simply that the domain name PeopleMoney.com was taken and we had to be creative in making an unique name for the service.
I mean no offence but this sounds kind of ironic.  Smiley

Anyway, it might be worth it to reconsider the name. What if someone makes a phishing site with the "normal" spelling?
118  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-04-29 bitcoin-square: Plus500 now offers BTCUSD instrument on: May 05, 2013, 10:06:22 PM
This is pure bullshit - no Bitcoins actually change hands. This is a gambling website, and you are betting against the house. It's called a "bucket shop:"

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucket_shop_%28stock_market%29

Quote
As defined by the U.S. Supreme Court a bucket shop is "[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in."[1] People often mistakenly interchange the words bucket shop and boiler room, but there is actually a significant difference. A boiler room has been defined as a place where high-pressure salespeople use banks of telephones to call lists of potential investors (known as "sucker lists") in order to peddle speculative, even fraudulent, securities. However, with a bucket shop, it could be better thought of as a place where people go to make “side bets” – similar to a bookie.

Plus500 is a bucket shop and cannot accept U.S. customers (because bucket shops are against Federal regulations):

How to recognize a Bucket Shop broker:
http://ezinearticles.com/?How-To-Recognize-A-Bucket-Shop-Broker---Six-Signs-of-A-Fraud-Brokerage&id=6699723

Plus500 Review (indicates that they do not accept U.S. customers):
http://fxbuild.com/plus500-review/

So? You place bets on wether the price will go up or down. What's the problem? Are you against gambling?

This seems like the way speculation should be done in a free market. It's actually a more effective way of speculating since you remove the overhead of dealing with physical products. CFD trading still has an indirect effect on the bitcoin price the same way actual trading of bitcoins would. If there is a lot of buying pressure on the CFD it will drive the price up making it diverge from the real bitcoin price. This would create an arbitrage opportunity, meaning you could short the CFD and buy bitcoins and gain regardless of where the price goes, giving you a riskless* return. Doing this would drive both prices towards eachother again.

So again, what is the problem with this? The only effect of people trading these instruments will be increased volume on regular exchanges from people arbitraging. More people having a say on the price is good since it reduces the power any single individual have.

*There is still the third party risk of a company with your money going bust etc.
119  Economy / Web Wallets / Re: Blockchain.info - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics on: April 27, 2013, 12:13:25 PM
I tried to add a tag for donations to http://www.gimp.org/

However, blockchain said that it can't find the adress in question at the website. You are not looking hard enough. It's in the bitcoin: URI format. Blockchain.info should preferably notice this.
120  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Democratic vote is held; Bitcoin limit is lifted to 900Million. How do you feel? on: April 25, 2013, 08:27:03 PM

I'll add a question to the sentence I bolded. If I make a transaction on the newly created fork-chain, wouldn't this be a legitimate transaction on the bitcoin chain as well? Meaning if someone relays transactions between chains you can't really spend coins from one chain only. Is there a good way to fork the chain without this happening?

I'm just sort of guesstimating (this not being a tech thread), but it seems to me that the best way to do this would be to manipulate the address format in backward-ish compatible way such that a spend would be invalid on fork and honored on another.
My big question is if that is even possible in a backward compatible way. If not a majority vote fork could possibly be quite disruptive as all their fork-transactions would likely find their way into bitcoin somehow as well. I'm really not sure of the consequences here but think it could need some thought.
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