Agree with the bullishness. Breakthrough of short-term + the 2 longer-term log trendlines, with volume and force, was plenty enough to turn me bull and post the obligatory rocket pic in the wall observer thread

Now I just pray to all the market gods that, as you say, I'm not being played by a very clever (and very rich) whale. Or even worse, that this Wave B out of C, and that once we reach the top (estimated, in such a scenario, to be $600~ based on SMA200, fractal ratio analysis of the mid bear-cycle's top and bottom (400-710) as well as the good ol' fibhorn) we're in for another 6-month bear-market.

But this is far too bearish a scenario, even worse than 2011, makes no sense in our current situation (particularly if Wall Street is indeed gaining interest as rumored).

Edit: It's interesting to note how, in retrospect, the breaking of the linear resistance line seems a more valid signal of trend reversal than the log one(s), as it told the same tale only far earlier. One could call it a lucky fluke. Yet somehow it doesn't look like it, as the strong adherence to it as support after the breakthrough would lend weight to it still being a major (if not the major) line. Lesson for next time not to dismiss the linear chart so readily in favor of my bearish bias.

As long as you take everything with a grain of salt, and (as you already noticed) try to see beyond the obvious "bullish propaganda bias", there's insight to be gained. The Winklevii are far from idiots, and while their portrayed optimism can (and should) be seen as an attempt to pump the price by exciting the masses, their words still carry weight, and I believe their stated opinions (at least to some degree) may reflect their actual, informed ones.

I earnestly hope you are wrong, as this endless sideways movement is absolutely horrid and does not befit the typical, exciting rollercoaster-ride that is Bitcoin. If it turns out we're just breaking out of the triangle for yet another drawn-out and disappointing period of sideways stagnation, I do believe I shall shoot myself out of boredom.

I don't think sellers' exhaustion entirely applies to this situation, at least not yet. As demonstrated in the other thread linking to that article on blockchain analysis, there's still a crapload of ~3-month holders, most of which are presumably deep underwater, and a breakthrough of the long-term support line (as is possibly happening now, no volume as of yet though so could be false), would confirm a continuation of the bear market which, I believe, would prompt many of these hodlers to sell in hopes of buying back later on (or perhaps pulling a Veronica and leaving the game entirely).




This is, of course, not even accounting for the risk-taking traders and (possibly) whales who were expecting an upwards breakthrough and price spike, and would probably be among the first to sell now, creating enough momentum for the hodlers to follow suit.

Heh. The 2 bearish log trendlines (stamp) would beg to differ.



Granted, small breakthrough on the linear price channel, but look at what happened last time this occurred on (relatively) low volume.



Of course, I could be wrong, I'm just another mindless sheep after all Merely saying that perhaps it helps one not to be too certain and cry "broken markets" at the slightest price movements such as this.

I would argue for the contrary, that this is not bullish but possibly even bearish, as the general herd of people need to feel that this is, in fact, the apocalypse before a true bottom can be reached.

In other words we need far more hodlers to pull a Veronica

Interesting, thank you for the info and insight of this Ichimoku cloud tool - I believe it shall prove very handy for future weather predictions

Though I am also skeptical about the 26-day delay thing. While I do not even pretend to understand it, I wish (as you do) to see more hard proof for why it is so.

As for the March 24 pattern (and, seemingly, the same we are seeing today) I believe it is more a matter of buying vs selling pressure; when we move into the cloud (or for that matter approach/ping at a resistance line) people increasingly get an idea that price won't go much further, and start selling. This triggers a snowball effect, bullish momentum slows as more and more people are selling, which further prompts people to sell, thinking price is about to go down, and finally when the selling pressure exceeds the buying pressure we get the big red candles, and a stronger snowball effect of "ok, price IS going down, no doubt about it, might as well sell now"-sentiment, triggering the extreme bearish volatility.

I think this is happening right now, as per the established logic of the self-similar bear cycles, and as such we will (as you have already stated) see a major leg down within 3 days, give or take.

$410-400, followed by $360, I should think

Indeed, it is fascinating. And it is all the more fascinating when you consider the fact that price can essentially be seen as a visualized output of thought and sentiment on a mass scale.

Tells you a lot about the workings of our minds, especially when put in groups.

Out of curiosity, could you provide the base on which you drew the lower line? Because interestingly, it seems to coincide with 2 of my bottom estimates ($130 and $160), which were calculated entirely without the use of lines.

edit:

That answered it, cheers.

Technical Analysis, while probabilistic, can more often than not give you fairly accurate price targets and predictions. As long as you account for this probabilistic nature and have reasonable margins of error, there's a good chance you can use the analysis to make a profit. Especially, as Mat (I think?) so eloquently put it, in such a sentiment-driven market filled with noobs and clueless "hodlers" as Bitcoin, making price movements all the more predictable

Though I am far from a pro trader, I know that is not entirely true. There is such a thing as cutting your losses.

Example, if you bought at $600, price is falling and you know it will hit $300 before a bounce, it is better to sell at $500 and buy back closer to floor than hold all the way.

Of course if you don't know/have an idea of where price will go it is better to hold, as there's a large chance you'll miss the knife entirely that way and only make your losses worse. But for a decently competent analyst, cutting your losses and making the best of the situation is better than stubbornly holding throughout and refusing to sell at a loss.

Oh wow. I just realized my chart hadn't been set to log scale, and when I did it turns out the long term resistance line hasn't been broken at all



How incredibly nooby of me.

Yet, on linear many of the pings seem to be slightly more accurate Such as this (log)



vs this (linear)



Which should be used? Or are both valid?

Indeed, that is a possibility, but for the moment I'm choosing to take the more bearish outlook (until proven wrong).

Another way of looking at it would be as this channel



(the upper line has the same starting point as the long December trendline, only set to ping at the most recent peak).

Looks to me like it's shaping up more and more like the previous stagnating cycle. The similarities are quite staggering. If so, then something like this should be the most likely short-term price development, before breaking down hard, possibly to $266~, or possibly to a bounce on $320~ (lowest trendline).



Time to set buy orders soon

I'm not entirely sure we're out of the downtrend yet. The trendline might have been broken, but at the same time this price movement looks very fractal/self-similar to me. The previous 2 major drops have always been marked by a sharp increase directly afterwards, followed by a slowly stagnating price for a few weeks/a month, before dropping down heavily again. This pattern seems to be shaping up at the moment as well, particularly in relation to the last such cycle, which would mean price going down to $400-ish by mid-May, after which time the triangle will have long ended, leaving very little support to prevent a sharp drop.

Along with this, I'm trying to apply my fibhorn technique to get a sense of price targets if the bear scenario is still relevant. While previously $260~ has seemed like a solid target, the latest price developments seem to be painting an increasingly bearish picture, with a 0 level at $160 making a very good fit, and it pings nicely with earlier price movements as well. Then again, ratio analysis seems to support a bottom nearer my original $260~ prediction. If one looks at the ratio of the previous peak-drop (710-340), and applies it to the latest peak of $540, the result is $270.



I suppose it's possible the $250-270 range may act as support, which will be immediately followed by a sharp rise and yet another cycle taking us to $160 bottom, like so;



Good trading opportunity if true

This is all, of course, nooby fringe TA, and only even remotely relevant if the bear trend is still on, so take it as you will. If daily SMA50 and 100 are broken, I will consider the bull market confirmed. Until then, I remain undecided, leaning towards being a bear.

Just my 2 satoshi

I have absolutely no idea what to make of this



The triangle has been pierced on both sides, however I feel the volume for the drop was far too low to indicate a bottom, and volume for the rally is almost nonexistent. Perhaps the triangle has been rendered obsolete, and this is a retrace of the still-relevant downtrend?

I highly doubt it. Far more likely this is just a retrace, and soon we'll be breaking new lows.

Haha yeah, I know how you feel. Looks like the ol' clown prophet was right all along

I've been experimenting with arbitrarily shoehorning in the fibonacci retracement tool to predict points of resistance or reversal, based on the observed tendency for price to "subconsciously" adhere to/ping at various fib levels before the 0 level has even been reached, implying that tops and bottoms may be predetermined by some mystical magic market forces, either from the very start of a crash/rally or as a result of price movements while getting to the end point. I call it the "Fibhorn".

You may call this method extremely shoddy, inconclusive and/or laughable, but so far it's given me pretty accurate results, although it's hard to distinguish which prediction will be resistance and which will indicate floor, so I'll obviously have to refine it further for it to be more useful.

Anyway, applying the fibhorn to the current price, 250-266 has come up as a solid result, which is in line with your previous post. Again, I'm not entirely sure if this is going to be the floor or just a point of resistance, but I highly expect it to be either one at any rate.