hope you understand better what I mean when the price was slashed from 14.6 to 14.0; and suddenly big asking orders turn out.

And the market will prove even better my point: it's going to fluctuate in the near term without rally or bear direction. The weak believers will give up and a patient investor who still have cash will find better price. The next phase of rally will be unfold on a more consolidated platform.

Don't do panic buy. just hold your USD in the coming days or weeks, waiting for a more favorite price.




 

People have different view about the future of bitcoin. Maybe the big BTC holders are not big believers.

The different between solid believers or weak ones is the former don't need the market price to prove their correctness. They just have the faith, even when the price fall from 32 to 0.01 in less than a week. And the number of solid believers is enough,  so the market will recover no matter how deep it falls.

Warren Buffet has wealth in cash or bond only around 20 billion. And he said that he don't like the idea to invest in gold or money. Nonetheless, there is still possibility that Warren Buffet will buy some bitcoin, even it's a tiny tinny one. In that case, the big rally will come, just as what happened to every asset Warren Buffet declaring that he has purchased.

Considering that there is lots of investors, both individuals or institutions, the long term rally is certain for me. However, we don't still have a real exchange yet. (Mtgox, tradehill or even Campbx today, are not somewhere a institution with sound internal control system or a high net wealth persons with dozens of financial/legal adviser dare to put their money in, even they are willingly to do so. Especially, most the institutional investor are playing OPM, other people's money, of course  they one day will invest their USD into bitcoin like they did on the forex market, however, the trading platform we have now are still unacceptable for them. （I think Keyur is working on it, based on the recent news report. However, this will take lots of capital to invest and troublesome legal job to deal with. So, long way to go.)
 
Only 100% free individual like us dare to trade on Campbx, tradehill or mtgox. And I think the most speedy growth of the adopters like us has gone, the growth of users will continue but at a slower pace. until

1)we get a user-friendly and easy-to-keep-it-safe client software;
2) trustworthy-bitcoin-bank-with-100%-reserve service;
3)and one of the exchanges are ready for the institutional investors as there is no legal barrier to invest in OPM

the market will just fluctuate in a very random way. As mentioned in above post, the market will have a significant crash if some geeky teenager boy fall in love with a girl and decide to sell most of his mined coins to do something for the girl. (You know, female are not aware of the value of the bitcoin as much as male now.)

As the time  is very long before the 3 conditions ready for next big rally, I think the possibility is significant that in the coming weeks there will be a more favorite price. Maybe the price will somehow higher than now after the end of this period, but the fluctuation will be more major theme than rising.

You know what, if one day bitcoin gets so popularly accepted, that even more big voice will start to give advise on the trading, like morgan stanley, goldman sacks and so on. They will predict the market in a more God-like way, maybe phrase like "target price" will be used. They will connect every single clue of what happened on the earth to the price of bitcoin. All the news paper will be full of this kind of suggestions.

So what? Everybody still will be doing what they like to do. I don't think my suggestion will manipulate the market that much, nobody's will. But I do think that my suggestion is useful to a handful of people.

If holding part bitcoin part USD, nobody will miss the boat in either direction.

A lot of users on this forum have been all in, and they just want to other people buy as much as they could. The most seen skill is to scare people by something like "What if you miss out boat completely". Of course, if you look at the Google trends, you will know that one day the boat will weigh its anchor, but not likely in the coming days. And lots of people buying beyond 20$, they're weak in faith, and I bet lots of them will sell their coin at a loss. That's why I think that it's very possible that their will be a better chance to buy.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0


[/quote]
And how will you know when it's time to turn around? will you send signals to all telling everyone should buy now as much as possible because we are going to fly through the roof?
[/quote]

I don't know when, of course. I just think that if most people buy in a patient style, the price will go up in a slow and steady way. If people push the price up like 20% or 30% in one day, we will see a lower price than where the short surge begin, even if the low point of price is only temporary.

What a jerk who will blame other people on not giving advise as they've once given one.

Don't twist my point of view, Serge. I'm just trying to stop people from panic buying, and at the same time suggest a smart buying at a low price.

If you're all in, just ignore my suggestion. If you're still have USD in the account of Mtgox, I guess you won't be regret with thinking about my suggestion.

You say that the market is going to be bullish from now.
But I say that if the market is rally too fast from now, it will be dangerous for the panic buyers. Time will tell us which one of us is right. Maybe you're already all in, that's why you want everybody else to do the same immature thing as you did.

I'm 100% agree with you in the long-term.
However, in the short term, I think it's more likely hold some USD as well as bitcoin is the best strategy, but not all-in at once.

I post a lot, but not trolling.

This is just some kind of panic buyers' expectation of the future. A sophisticated trader will just know that upon the volatility and the weak belief of some early adopters, and the media coverage peak being past, the surge in price is a sign of danger but not a beginning of rally. The more speedy the price surges, the more it falls.

My suggestion is:

just hold the bitcoin you already have. Don't buy it when everybody is pushing the price up. Just be patient, wait the price fall and buy it at a discounted price. If you buy it when the price surges from 13.8 to 14.5 in 15 mins, you're of course the one who will be regret in less than 3 hours.

I don't see what's wrong with being aware of the existence of the big holders, especially those ones who are always ready to slash the market. Stop yourselves from panic buying and always being patient, you will get better chance to buy in at a cheap price.

He is always ready to give you a crash after your panic buying.
Keep money in hand and be patient, withdraw your open bid orders, to help the price fall, and you will get cheap coins.

One of the big player just show us his power.
So don't be crazy, everybody! Just calm down! The bitcoin is a long term game. You will be fucked by the big player if you do panic buying.

You can just buy slowly in the future months, if you want to invest into bitcoin.
Do NOT push the price up! if the price is high, just calm down, and wait until it fall back, then buy it at a low price.

Remember, always have some cash ready to buy. Don't buy it at once!

We just need another crash from 15$ to 9.5$ to wipe out the doubting Thomas.

3 hours ago, someone is even as excited as willing to buy beyond 15$.
 
Not all the doubters have sold their coins yet. If you push the price up beyond 15, you're only make yourselves in a dangerous situation. I suggest we remain the price at this low level for a while, and let the price crash several times, and make doubters sell all their coins around 10-12$. Then we can move on to the next phase of rally. So don't buy at too high price, and always reserve some money for picking up the cheap coins.

Too complicated.

Keep it simple, sir.

Yes, the bitcoin developers should take user-friendliness more seriously.

Not every weak believers like "BTC Economist" has sold their coins!
We should keep the price down until all of them get despaired and SELL SELL SELL at a lower price!
If we push the price up with bitcoin hold in guys like BTC Economist, it will be bad for bitcoin!

Your father told you about PEOPLE or GOVERNMENT things when you 7 years old? Won't the kids ask you, what is governement...

I'm actually not very good at technical  analysis. Would you please explain it in detail. Thanks in advance.

but I still think it's bad for us to push the price now. those stupid panicky didn't all get out.