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101  Economy / Economics / Re: Ruble in freefall... Too bad for those people they outlawed Bitcoin! hahaha on: December 19, 2014, 01:30:56 AM
I too hope Russian economy completely collapse. Gives the ppl the chance to rebuild their government. Its corrupted far too long.

Definitely nowhere near as corrupted as the US, or a few countries in Europe. Well never corner someone who has over a few thousand nukes, is my opinion.
Well the news with Ruble is horrible, the people there suffer.
The US does not jail people for speaking out against the government, this is something that Putin routinely does. The government also literally controls the media in Russia which essentially makes it impossible for the fact that they are corrupt in the first place from being made public (it makes dissemination of this information much more difficult)

This is not to say that the US is not corrupt at all, but at least the US tries to fight corruption
102  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Changetip & Tipping tuesday on: December 19, 2014, 01:26:54 AM
I agree with the following article and take the same stand: ChangeTip Must Die
Well in theory ChangeTip's customers will tip eachother back and forth (they tip people with tips received) so the revenue estimate is somewhat underestimated. It is also important to note that ChangeTip is focused primarily on micro tips while the article suggests that people only tip larger amounts (in terms of dollars).

I do agree that the whole concept of 'tipping' on reddit/twitter is really dumb and many people often manipulate their appearance in order to make them look generous when they are really just giving money to themselves. It also leads to begging which is annoying
103  Economy / Speculation / Re: Time Inc. Deal Promises to Ratchet Up Firehose of Selling Pain for Bitcoin on: December 19, 2014, 01:20:05 AM
In essence, what is happening now is that every time someone purchases a product or service from a bitcoin accepting merchant (aka bitcoin dumper), the buyer is causing that BTC to be immediately sold on the market. There are simply not enough speculators available to offset the combined force of this massive network of merchant sellers.

For every 100 stories about how another company is now accepting (aka selling) bitcoin, we might get 1 about payroll integration. This imbalance is not sustainable over the long term. People need to earn bitcoin, spend bitcoin, and avoid fiat exchanging. I think its just a matter of bringing this awareness to the surface and shifting focus.



It'll happen with time. Give consumers a reason to use bitcoin (IE merchant adoption) and they will come. especially with services like purse.io (15% off amazon), gyft (3% off), other discounts etc. At the very least we will eventually see a 3% discount for using bitcoin, then add on a little more for essentially 100% non-chargeback fraud protection.

You've been around long enough to remember that in 2012 there wasn't much to spend your bitcoin on, times are changing my friend.

Edit: NVM 2013, but the point still stands Tongue
I agree, we will probably see normalized discounts in the 3-5% range as companies start to pass along their savings (or at least a portion of it) from credit card processing fees and chargebacks
104  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: New James Bond leaked script talks about Bitcoin. Is this real? on: December 19, 2014, 01:06:42 AM
I dont own the script but i see this picture in a forum from new James Bond leaked script. Is this real?



If it stopped at "I'll take Bitcoin," it'd be more believable. James Bond is not the overly pretentious and wanky type of character.
You are probably right. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we were to see some kind of bitcoin reference in future bond movies (or maybe eve this one will be edited to include one)
105  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Anyone Else Noticing This on: December 19, 2014, 01:00:59 AM
No problem here http://btc.blockr.io/block/list/ ... 3-4 block per hour, not too bad.  Wink

Difficulty went up, or more miners switching off their equipment? I thought that the difficulty was decreasing which should have compensated for the dropping prices.
Evey time that the difficulty adjusts the average block time should move roughly halfway to 10 minutes from the previous average block time from the previous 2016 blocks. This assumes that additional miners had started mining on the network at an exactly even pace from the previous 2016 blocks (or miners were taken offline at an exactly even pace when the difficulty decreases)
106  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: when will all btc be mined? on: December 19, 2014, 12:33:49 AM
The intensity of mining (hashrate) has (virtually) no impact on the rate at which bitcoins are mined. BTC are currently mined at 25 BTC every 10 minutes, the reward halving every 4 years (next in 2016). I believe this runs until ~2140 AD.
This is not true. The network difficulty is reset every 2016 blocks so that if the hashrate that was being used the previous 2016 blocks continues to be used (and the same level of luck is realized) then the next 2016 blocks will take exactly two weeks to be mined.

Every time the difficulty rises, it means that the previous 2016 blocks took less time then 'expected' to be found.

It is really not possible to know with any kind of certainty when the last block with a block subsidy will be mined as this is largely dependent on the difficulty between now and then

Given your statements all agree with and elucidate what I said, I don't understand what I wrote that is "not true" - can you clarify?
With the exception of the last couple of difficulty changes, it has taken much less then two weeks on average to find 2016 blocks, the same is true for the majority of the time since the difficulty first increased in 2009. Every time the difficulty increased by 10%, it means that the previous 2016 blocks, on average were found every ~9 minutes. Since additional mining power has been added to the network at a somewhat even pace (excluding the last ~month) the average block time has stayed at ~8 minutes for most of the year, however if the difficulty had not changed then the block time would have further decreased as additional miners were added to the network
107  Economy / Economics / Re: USA is now number 2 on: December 19, 2014, 12:20:22 AM
US is number 2 by GDP and GDP alone. By all other economic measures we are far better off than China. China has a much larger population with living standards much lower than here in the US.


I think you actually have the economic indicator wrong on this one. The US is number 2 in terms of PPP which is a measure of the size of an economy adjusted for the standard of living of the average person "in" the economy. By GDP the US is still much better then China. The same is true for most other economic indicators
108  Economy / Speculation / Re: TIME TO BUY on: December 19, 2014, 12:14:33 AM
If you guys are buying then either its blind optimism or you have some belief that we are at the bottom of the price drop?  Can I ask what makes you think that?  If you had brought a coin yesterday you could have lost $15 already. 

Do you realize the power bitcoin gives us?
I like the idea of optimism I wouldn't consider it blind optimism because for starters its a insult and it is a way to belittle me for believing in something you cannot afford.
It sounds like for you it is blind optimism. I suspect the same is probably true for many others as well.

the fact that bitcoin will rise substantially in the future is far from certain and there are a number of risks involved in buying/owning bicoin
109  Economy / Economics / Re: BitCoin vs Visa as an investment on: December 18, 2014, 11:25:33 PM
You also get the benefit of receiving dividend income from owning visa stock, while you would likely need to spend some amount of money to keep your bitcoin investment secure

From a pure finance point of view, you will have to look at both dividend receipt and capital appreciation to get the total return.
Return on capital is how you should judge which investment has fared better.

Usually, if 2 companies have the same RoE, the Company with lower dividend payouts would be more tax efficient. In most jurisdictions, long term capital gains attracts lower tax than dividends.
That is true. However dividends are money now while capital appreciation is potential money in the future. There are risks that both investments could eventually go to zero, but with dividends you would not lose everything
110  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you own bitcoin? on: December 18, 2014, 11:23:20 PM
I just want to know if they took the initiative to obtain a wallet before they set up a account on this forum

I owned over 120BTC months before i ever thought of joining this forum.

Still holding most of them through the last 2 bubbles. Spent some on merchandise and donations and lost a few to Gox.

I hope I never have to sell any. Just buy, hold and spend.


Out of curiosity when specifically did you buy that much bitcoin and what got you interested in buying so much? Also when did you buy it?
111  Economy / Speculation / Re: TIME TO BUY on: December 17, 2014, 04:47:22 AM
At least that's what I just did, so I believe we are at or very close to the bottom.

Why would we be at the bottom? The selling is just beginning.

Every time a new company like Microsoft offers bitcoin as a payment method, the market gains another auto-seller. There is no reason for the price to increase until this imbalance is corrected. The time to "go long" would be when a major company announces that it will be integrating bitcoin into its payroll options.

I'm in the opposite side of that theory. I believe the effect of this companies accepting payment in BTC is legitimizing it and driving it closer to mainstream. The consequence I expect in 2015, from these levels, is steady growth in both price and usage/popularity: the snowbal effect as more "converts" = more demand.

Most people is only looking at the prices day to day; I believe btc will flourish agan when more people, from the mainstream world, see it not just as a usable currency with no scamming attached to it and, above all, as a storage of value not affected by inflation. Back to the basics, again.
Exactly. Some of the companies starting to accept bitcoin may cause more supply on the market, however overall more merchants accepting bitcoin are going to cause more people (consumers) to use it
112  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: New James Bond leaked script talks about Bitcoin on: December 17, 2014, 04:44:09 AM
The new James Bond script did in fact leak with the recent Sony hack, but that bitcoin dialogue is obviously fake. It could've been done a bit better and I'm sure it would've been more believable but I think whoever created it is just having a laugh and making it more ridiculous for the lulz  Cheesy.
Yea you are probably right. The James Bonds movies do not typically make economic nor political statements like this and there is no real reason why this would would either
113  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Anyone Else Noticing This on: December 17, 2014, 04:40:40 AM
334586 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 17:19:42    4 mins
334585 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 17:15:52    8 mins
334584 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 17:08:16    8 mins
334583 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 17:00:36    8 mins
334582 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 16:36:50    24 mins
334581 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 16:25:43    11 mins
334580 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 16:19:10    6 mins
334579 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 15:37:01    48 mins
334578 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 15:17:36    20 mins
334577 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 15:08:42    9 mins
334576 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 15:06:07    6 mins
334575 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 15:00:23    minus 2 mins
334574 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 15:02:15    3 mins
334573 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 14:59:00    5 mins
334572 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 14:54:42    5 mins
334571 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 14:49:27    7 mins
334570 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 14:42:31    2 mins
334569 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 14:40:14    33 mins
334568 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 14:07:08    2 mins
334567 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 14:05:25    7 mins
334566 (Main Chain)    2014-12-16 13:58:46    

15 green = no celebration of quicker than average confirms
5 slower = crying from people that dont realise the 10 minutes is NOT a rule, but a average based on maths spanning over 2 weeks and then divided down
maths based on those 20 tx's is 10 and a half minutes-ish

Well the average block time really has been a lot less then 10 minutes so far this year because the difficulty has increased so much, this also resulted in much less of a backlog of unconfirmed transactions so many transactions were getting confirmed in one block, while now that we are seeing a more "normal" 10 minute block time, some transactions may take more blocks to get confirmed
114  Economy / Exchanges / Re: LocalBitcoins is no longer available in Germany ? on: December 17, 2014, 04:38:02 AM
I still have my listings up. I did get contacted last week by a buyer and everything from there works fine.
They only recently (within the last few days) suspended service within Germany. I would imagine that some features would temporarily still work as they make adjustments to their site (and discover they forget to disable certain things within their site)
115  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: when will all btc be mined? on: December 17, 2014, 04:32:57 AM
The intensity of mining (hashrate) has (virtually) no impact on the rate at which bitcoins are mined. BTC are currently mined at 25 BTC every 10 minutes, the reward halving every 4 years (next in 2016). I believe this runs until ~2140 AD.
This is not true. The network difficulty is reset every 2016 blocks so that if the hashrate that was being used the previous 2016 blocks continues to be used (and the same level of luck is realized) then the next 2016 blocks will take exactly two weeks to be mined.

Every time the difficulty rises, it means that the previous 2016 blocks took less time then 'expected' to be found.

It is really not possible to know with any kind of certainty when the last block with a block subsidy will be mined as this is largely dependent on the difficulty between now and then
116  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why are merchants not serious about the advantages of Bitcoin? on: December 17, 2014, 04:28:15 AM
Offer something like a 5% discount on BTC purchases, sharing the savings they enjoy using BTC.
Overstock isn't paying anything like 5% on credit card transactions. People running a business out of their parents' basement pay 5%. Big companies pay around 1%.
They are probably not paying 5% to process credit card transactions, but they are not paying 1% either, it is probably closer to the 2-3 percent range, which is generally standard within the industry.

You also need to take into account the fact that there will be credit card fraud which will be an expense above the processing fee, even if they can defeat any chargeback claims, they will still need to pay an employee to fight these claims
117  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: You want bitcoin to succeed ? *THIS* is what you need to focus on on: December 17, 2014, 04:23:41 AM
The Bitcoin community should boycott any BTC accepting merchant that doesn't also offer their employees a bitcoin payment option.
This would pretty much be all businesses that accept bitcoin, and would result in the companies to stop accepting bitcoin (they wouldn't be getting any bitcoin sales) and other companies not wanting to accept bitcoin
118  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: China again ...This time they did not ban bitcoin !!! on: December 17, 2014, 04:22:02 AM

well by co exist do they mean china can use it for legitimate trades with merchants or do they mean they've bought enough now and want a quick pump before banning it again.

Why would the Chinese government manipulate the Bitcoin price?

They have better things to do than getting into something with a market cap of just 4.6 billion.
So you mean to tell me that governments have not been buying Bitcoins secretly at a low price?  Roll Eyes
Probably not, especially not large governments like the Chinese government who spend trillions of dollars every year. Compare this to the market cap of bitcoin (~4.5 billion), and you will see that it would not make any sense for them to do this, as it would not have any meaningful impact on their overall financial picture
119  Economy / Economics / Re: Ruble in freefall... Too bad for those people they outlawed Bitcoin! hahaha on: December 17, 2014, 04:17:51 AM
I feel sorry for the Russian people.  Signs of hyper inflation are setting in with people rushing to stores to buy capital goods.  

However, we can't laugh too hard, year to date bitcoin is down more versus the USD than the ruble is.
Russia is not actually experiencing hyper inflation, it's prices of domestically produced goods are generally the same, however the prices of imported good are increasing dramatically.

The percentage that the price of bitcoin has dropped is roughly the same as the percentage decline of the Russian Ruble. It is just that the Ruble's decline is accelerating and even massive hikes in interest rates are not slowing it down, nor has ~$100 billion in intervention slowed it down.
120  Economy / Speculation / Re: Time Inc. Deal Promises to Ratchet Up Firehose of Selling Pain for Bitcoin on: December 17, 2014, 04:11:48 AM
I'm shocked that there are still retards who sing the same song " Merchants accepting bitcoins will drive its value down"
Well this is technically true over the short term, however over longer periods, more merchant adoption will lead to higher consumer adoption, which will lead to higher prices for bitcoin.

It also makes bitcoin more attractive to own and use because there are more things that users can now spend their bitcoin on
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