So far, this has been true objectively.  But subjectively, this certainly has not always been the case.  If you have the willingness/ability to hold no matter what happens, then bitcoin investment has been profitable at any level below ~$5800, where we are right now.  However, if you've gotten caught up in a panic and dumped your holdings, the point at which you invested was obviously bad for you.  In any case, we also have to consider that there may come a time when bitcoin price will not recover.  I don't think we're there yet, but I think it’s still important to be careful where you buy in.

Given the recent drop in alt coins, this does seem like a decent time to buy.  But be choosey.  Don't just buy an alt coin because it dropped 20% or 50% or even 90%.  Look at historical price ranges for where a coin's price has bottomed in the past.  Check out the latest news on the coin.  If it looks cheap compared to where it's bounced before, and if it has news going for it, now might be a great time to buy.  Otherwise, be careful since the next fork in a few weeks could cause another drop in alt coin prices.

I know nothing about Sky Way Coin, but if there are serious problems with it, the odds are very much against it surviving.  My general take on such situations is that if I have something left of my investment, it's better to get out.  If I've lost just about everything and the further loss if it goes to zero is minimal, I might just hold onto it, hoping that someday it will either recover somehow, or that it will at least get pumped.

Whatever you do, here's one piece of advice: make sure that you contemplate this loss and how you got there.  Stare it in the face.  Think through your experience with this investment, and come to terms with the mistake you made.  It will be uncomfortable; it will be painful.  But if you accept that you made a mistake and find peace, you are much less likely to make the same mistake again.  If you try to ignore it, play down it's importance, or blame someone/something else, you're much more likely to repeat it.

As the latest trading range over the last week or two has been in the $5k-$6200 range, if you're looking for a good short-term trade, try to buy near the $5k level.  If it goes much below $5k, dump it.  If it goes back up near $6k, either sell if things look weak, or hold if momentum looks it like it could carry it to a new ATH, or if it's in between, sell some around $6k and look for a new ATH with the rest.

If you're looking for a longer-term investment, I think it's hard to say where it's going next.  Obviously it's rather pricy right now, and would be a better buy below $5k.  I'm still not "satisfied" with the quick bounce off $3k after the China news with nothing close to a retest of that level.  A serious break of $5k on some bad news (or a segwit2x fork gone wrong), could lead to a retest of $3k.  Below $3k would be a much better buy, but thing will look scary if we get there.

While it's true that all currencies fluctuate some with respect to each other, in general, 1% in a day for a fiat currency is an outsized move.  Bitcoin can change by that much in a minute at times of high volatility.


I think that something is going to have to change fundamentally for bitcoin to stabilize in price.  The biggest problem right now is that there's no good way to determine how much a bitcoin is worth--it doesn't really have any intrinsic value.  The value of fiat currencies is at least more or less determined by the economy of the country that's represented by the currency.  Without some kind of economic system that's represented by bitcoin, I don't think it's ever going to become as stable as a fiat currency.

I'm not sure I understand...how do you think this is happening?  If people are dumping their bitcoin gold for alt coins, then it shouldn't have any effect on the price of bitcoin.  If people are dumping their bitcoin gold for bitcoin and then using that bitcoin to buy alt coins, that still shouldn't have a net negative effect on the price of bitcoin.  If anything, I think people are looking at how beaten down alt coins are and using some of their bitcoin to buy the alt coins, regardless of bitcoin gold.

While any of those things you mentioned could cause a drop to $5k, I don't think anything specific is necessary.  We've established a range between $5000/$5100 and the ATH around $6200.  I think that dipping to $5k could happen simply as a result of the normal intraday price swings that bitcoin experiences.  Dipping below $5k significantly will probably take some kind of specific catalyst.  However, one should also keep in mind that all it takes for the price to fall is for enough people/bots to start selling.  Not even bad news is required.

Something to keep in mind: bitcoin market cap is nothing more than the multiplication of bitcoin's price by the number of bitcoins in existence.  While it is somewhat useful when comparing to other investments like companies, it does not represent the amount of money that has been invested in bitcoin.

May I please join?

Bitcoin Talk Name: CoinsCoinsEverywhere
Bitcoin Talk Profile: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=306500
Rank: Senior Member
Post Count (including this post): 583
BTC Address: 1DgpQU995ngQQvwhNnDmLfkfxAUaLZZaFd

Yes, this was quite the victory for bitcoin.  Now we just need the Chinese government to surrender completely and reinstate bitcoin trading.

Yeah, I was wondering if you were going to continue to this logical conclusion after reading your first paragraph.  One positive thing here is that North Korea has been making fake threats for years.  Before Trump, they were mostly ignored.  Of course, before Trump, they also couldn't really back up their threats....

Yes, this seemed like quite a healthy pullback, especially given how fast we shot up to ~$5900.  My only concern is whether or not a retracement to $5100 "counts" as a test of $5k.  Given bitcoin's volatility, it probably does, especially given the pop that ensued.  But I would be a little more comfortable if the low had been more in the $5000 to $5050 range.

At this point, this kind of stuff isn't news anymore.  A day during which North Korea didn't make a threat would be more interesting.  If war actually did break out, I would guess that cryptos would tank since so much market strength in the last several months has been due to increased interest in Japan and South Korea, which would be the most likely to be devastated by such a war.


I hope you are right.  Every day he seems to become more unhinged.  Right now, though, I think the biggest risk is if someone makes a mistake that sparks a war.  Like if North Korea launched another missile over Japan and it went off course and hit something on land, rather than falling harmlessly into the ocean.

I am not a master trader by any means, but here are my thoughts: all data for auction-style markets like cryptos can be boiled down to three things: price, volume, and time (i.e, the price at which a trade occurs, the size of the trade, and the time at which it occurred).  Everything else is a derivative of those three--indicators are nothing more than a way to visualize those sets of data.  As such, there is no best or worst indicator.  They all show the same data from different perspectives.  If you want to be a good trader, then you have to figure out which indicators do the best job of helping you understand the market.  Personally, I like support and resistance, moving averages, and the MACD.

Bitcoin may be decentralized, but if you're going to have exchanges where you can convert bitcoin to fiat, the government only has to regulate those to give it the ability to impose a direct tax on bitcoin.  You could still try to circumvent that by doing things like converting to fiat in another country, converting that country's fiat to your own country's fiat, and then transferring that back to yourself.  But it would be quite the hassle to have to do all that.

I think it's best to diversify at least a little.  Bitcoin certainly has the popularity and momentum right now.  As bitcoin sort of represents the cryptocurrency space as a whole, it's kind of like a stock market index--more stable (compared to alt coins, at least), more desirable, and somewhat safer.  But of course the drawback is that it's now much harder for bitcoin to experience the same kind of explosive growth (e.g., 10x in a month or two) as smaller alt coins.  So I think it's good to have bitcoin as your primary investment, but also hold some good alts to take advantage of any outsized price rallies that they may experience.

I would suggest that you pay attention to support and resistance areas to give you some idea of where price might be headed.  It's also good to keep in mind what happened at different key price points that resulted in large subsequent moves.  For example, bitcoin was around $4500 when all the China problems hit the fan a few weeks ago.  When we broke back above that, it showed that the market had gotten past all of that and was likely interested in new highs again.  And so, it wasn't too surprising that it made a beeline for $5k, tested it, pulled back a little, and then blasted through.  Important levels to watch now include the new ATH around $5900, the first pullback level around $5400, and the latest pullback level around $5100.  The sharp bounce off of $5100 (which I hope was effectively a test of the $5k level) to me indicates that there's a lot of confidence in bitcoin right now.  If we can get back up in the $5800s, it might make another run for new ATHs shortly thereafter.  Or it might stall close to $5900 and reverse, creating a double top that could mean a retest of $5k.

Note that, of course, it's a lot easier to see these things and explain these moves in hindsight.  But, breaking or bouncing off of a significant level often leads to a significant move in one direction or the other.

If you're new to the world of trading, then you should be warned that you're not going to make a profit every month.  Even the pros have a hard time doing that.  You can only take what the market will give you--it's not something you can force--and sometimes the market doesn't give you good trading conditions.  Learn to trade profitably with a really small trade size, and work your way up from there.  Be prepared to spend years on it if you really want to get good.

Here's my very very high-level understanding of it (someone please correct me if I'm wrong and add to it).

Basically, every block has to be confirmed by a majority of the network to ensure an orderly blockchain (each block needs to be validated by the rest of the network).  If a single entity controls more than 50% of the network hash power, they theoretically have the ability to determine which blocks are considered valid, and thus can form the chain as they choose.

That's not a great explanation, but it's something to build off of.

I don't.  I would consider any money that I would throw at a new alt coin to be a super high, purely speculative investment.  I would plan up front on losing all of it.  That doesn't mean that it's not worth doing for a coin that at least has some people with good reputations working on it since, of course, the high risk also comes with the potential for extremely high rewards.

You should always maintain balance in your investments.  If you bet everything on bitcoin, how are you going to feel if it drops 75%?  Such drops (and worse) have already happened a few times in bitcoin's history.  Look at the last major peak around $1100.  Over the following year, it dropped to around $150.  That drop was around 85%.  Yes, it has recovered quite well since then, but if you buy it now and it drops to $1000, how are you going to feel?  If you're fully invested in it, you're almost certainly going to panic and sell.  That's how people lose a lot of money in trading.