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An attack against "honest miners"? Is that you FDR?
It's competition in the free market, it forces efficiency and lowers prices. Fighting it with anything other than innovation is neither fair nor honest.
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If money is such a terrible idea, why did it emerge in the first place? What purpose did it serve?
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It points out the unintended economic consequences of central planning and utopian ideologies on the economy and general standard of living.
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Delete my wallet.dat because this town deserves a better class of criminal! What joker voted for this!? ;-) |
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Its fairly obvious to see where bitcoin is going. Those that spent tens of thousands of dollars will be able to mine for the longest while remaining profitable. The smaller you are the quicker you stop mining and sell off your hardware. This summer will see a majority of people stop mining because its unprofitable. Difficulty will not go down with these people leaving, to think that is a pipe dream. Mining will be concentrated among those who spent the most. The price of a bitcoin will rise and fall and will remain extremely volatile. And this is with no catastrophic events occurring. This is the optimists view of bitcoin.
I understand what you are getting at, but I disagree. Just because you have a larger operation doesn't mean you will mine for longer. Given the equivalent hardware, once BTC earned from mining becomes equal to the electricity costs of mining, the guy with 10x more machines just loses 10x more money as the guy with 1x machine. The people who will last the longest are those with the lowest electricity costs. Efficiency of hardware will play a small factor (but not that large since there isn't a lot of variance in power efficiency). The bigger factor will the $/kwh paid for electricity. Basically one's geographic location will for the most part determine how long he/she can continue mining and still make a profit. There will be a few people who get "free" electricity because they run their systems at work, in a dorm or whatever, but I think they will be outweighed by the tons of people who drop out of mining because their electricity costs make it unprofitable. Europeans I think will be the first to drop off, then big city dwellers in the US. Difficulty may dip for a while but it will eventually start growing again, at a slower rate, as some people jump back in, and those with cheaper electricity scale out with the new-found breathing room. No, I am not talking down to the point where we are dealing with electricity costs. No one is going to run their machines for a week to earn a single bitcoin, or at least smart people won't. Running the computers full bore for a week to earn 15-20 USD is stupid, but it would easily pay for the electricity costs. By mid july, my 655Mhash/s will be earning me about 1.5BTC a week. Why would I keep them running for that? At the same time, mid july, a guy with 10Ghash/s will still be earning 23.5 bitcoins a week. He obviously will keep them running for 350-470 USD a week. Its a matter of when it just becomes stupid to continue mining. If the price of bitcoins rises considerably, then it will delay when it becomes stupid for me to quit mining, but it will also delay even longer the time that people with thousands and thousands invested will mine for. They will always stay in the mining game longer than small fish like me because their payout will always me much more massive than me. Price is up 50% so far this month, even with the fluctuations. 50% increases (with great volatility admitted) will making mining profitable a year from now even if you are only getting fractions of a BTC a week. |
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Zeitgeist Movement and Project Venus are sects/cults. Just letting you know that.
Thou speaketh heresy!!! |
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moore's law can only go so far
can only "boldly" go so far grue, "boldly" go ;-) |
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I like the idea but in the meantime try selling your bitcoins locally and keep them off the exchanges. Craigslist, btcnearme.com, little announcements on the coffeeshop bulletin board.  I totally can't wait for anonymous p2p exchanges If we do "strike" though, selling to the dude at the coffee shop might have to be halted too as he might go a-speculating. |
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Star Trek's Federation seems like a real terrible type system the more I think about it.
Basically everyone dresses the same.
Military ships, armed to the teeth go on "exploration" missions.
The only people we ever see doing anything are state employees who are glamorised beyond belief.
There is a minimum wage type deal with contacting new civilisations, they have to FTL on their own or we don't contact them.
Lots of diseases are still incurable.
There has been nearly no technological advancement in like 300 year!!!! Basically there are replicators and holodecks and slightly faster ships that STILL can't leave the galaxy!
Lets face it guys, the Federation has killed all technological and cultural advancement in the future, stuff we are 20 years away from building never get developed under their "post-capitalist" world where no-one works for money but to "better themselves".
Take that Picard you statist!
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tru.dat, I just liked the controversial title A true strike would be real interesting though. Not profitable or fun, but educational. |
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RBE will have to be forced on people at gun point, but only for a while, until the people are finally free of counter revolutionary thought and its adherents, then a bright new day will dawn! FA Hayak predicted this kind of thing before; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6lSR62wmSo |
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Been thinking the same thing, if enough people want to try, might post how we could set this up.
IE 3 tests.
1. Planned and announced 3 day hold then free action.
2. Unplanned 3 day hold, use a random process to determine commencement date.
3. Unplanned 1-6 day hold, same as 2 but each miner rolls a dice for when he will sell again.
1. Would probably have the price spike to its value before the actual test as people buy in anticipation.
2. Price would spike then drop day 1.5 before the end of the test if people figure it out.
3. Same as 2 but on day 2.333 or something.
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Yes, it is placebo-money, but less so than other money, like the govt issued sort or gold.
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Well so far, judging by the results, 50% of newly minted BTC should show up on some exchange or for sale somehow.
At the current rate of block resolution that's about 6000 BTC?
If more folks vote we can get a more accurate read on this.
Judging by the MtGox monthly trade volumes that's 6000 of the aprox 10000 BTC daily volume. If all other markets together were the size of MtGox (fair assumption?) then 30% of all the sales volume were due to miners unloading BTC. Not that I'm pushing it but if more hoarded, prices would rise considerably.
OOPS daily average volume was 49K BTC, my bad. Still there would be far fewer bitcoins to circulate. |
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Judging by this poll http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=21658.0If all the miners were to not sell their freshly mined BTC for a day or two it would have a very significant impact on the price. Now the exchanges are mostly down but I think it would be really interesting to see how the market behaves sans the mining community for 2 or 3 days. |
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Well so far, judging by the results, 50% of newly minted BTC should show up on some exchange or for sale somehow.
At the current rate of block resolution that's about 6000 BTC?
If more folks vote we can get a more accurate read on this.
Judging by the MtGox monthly trade volumes that's 6000 of the aprox 10000 BTC daily volume. If all other markets together were the size of MtGox (fair assumption?) then 30% of all the sales volume were due to miners unloading BTC. Not that I'm pushing it but if more hoarded, prices would rise considerably.
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Hey Chucksta, I'm also sitting on my NMC stash after our last interaction and will prob switch to NMC again after the BTC difficulty increase if the NMC wants to just strengthen a bit |
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Maybe use "spend" instead?
Spend has been added. Are you spending btw?  |
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