Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

Bitcoin is again under $600, but where will it be on November 1?

Bitcoin had rather fall today around midnight (UTC) as its price dropped from $607 to $592. Still, it is not as near as scary as that drop from $655 from July 30 to $552 three days later.

So, in those few days prices fell close to 20% to start the month, a steep decline that coincided with the hack of Hong Kong-based bitcoin exchange Bitfinex, one of the most heavily traded on the network globally.

But as the news of the improvement as Bitfinex came, price started to go up and Bitcoin was still at around $600 since the start of September. Now many ask what will happen next and where will price go from here?

Bitcoin price on November 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-november-1/.

Few days ago, Chris Burniske, blockchain products lead for investment manager ARK Invest, emphasized for CoinDesk that the bitcoin's blockchain retained its security and functionality in spite of the Bitfinex hack.

Thus it was once again confirmed that in spite of recent Bitfinex hack and many other difficulties in Bitcoin community, market participants should keep in mind that bitcoin has survived many challenges before. And will in future.

But where will Bitcoin price go from here? As always there are those who are sure it will go over $1000 in a couple of months, those who think it will keep $600, and those pessimistic ones. What is your opinion? Predict it at Fairlay.

Oil investors are cutting wagers on both falling and rising crude prices, but where will it be at the end of the year?

A barrel of Brent Crude Oil is up to $46, though clashes in Libya delayed the first crude shipment from the country's Ras Lanuf export terminal since 2014. On the other side, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that OPEC and non-OPEC countries are close to an agreement to stabilize markets ahead of an informal meeting in Algiers next week.

The uncertainty ahead of that meeting has seen oil investors head for the sidelines, cutting wagers on both falling and rising crude prices. The meeting comes after the International Energy Agency said that the global oversupply will last longer than previously thought as demand growth slows and output proves resilient. What will this meeting bring?

End of the year price of Crude Oil, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-crude-oil-1/.

So, there’s more uncertainty than usual in the market because of the upcoming meeting. People are waiting for the outcome and a number think this is a good time to stand on the sidelines. But, on the other side, it could be the good time to predict what will this meeting bring and use the first good odds on the range of the end of the year Oil price.

In the meantime, OPEC production rose last month as Middle East producers opened the taps, the IEA said. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates pumped at or near record levels and Iraq pushed output higher, according to the agency. Does this mean rise in Crude Oil price over $50 by the end of the year? Well, use bitcoins to predict it at Fairlay.

BBC SPOTY 2016 Winner: Will it be Andy Murray, Mo Farah, Laura Trott, or someone else?

The BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award is one of the main sports awards in the United Kingdom, and it is given each December. The winner is the sportsperson, judged by a public vote, to have achieved the most that year. The recipient must either be British or reside and play a significant amount of their sport in the United Kingdom.

Four people have won the award more than once: boxer Henry Cooper, Formula One drivers Nigel Mansell and Damon Hill and tennis player Andy Murray have each won twice. But can 2016 change that as Andy Murray is once again the first favorite, after winning it last year, and this year could become the only person who won the SPOTY three times.

BBC SPOTY 2016 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/bbc-spoty-2016-winner/.

But, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Andy Murray on December 18 gets less votes (the shortlist is announced a few weeks before the award ceremony, and the winner is determined on the night by a public telephone and on-line vote) than the currently second favorite Mo Farah who is the 2016 Olympic gold medalist in both the 5000 m and 10,000 m.

It is similar with Laura Trott who won both the team pursuit and the omnium at 2016 Games. And the fourth favorite is currently Nick Skelton who, at the age of 58, won the Individual Olympic gold medal at his seventh Olympic Games. All others, like Jamie Vardy and Lewis Hamilton, are given much less chance. So, who do you predict as a SPOTY winner?

Who will be next U.N. Secretary-General? Antonio Guterres leads for now but who else can prevail?

United Nations headquarters in New York is abuzz with rumors about the organization’s future leadership. The race to replace Ban Ki-moon as secretary-general next year is entering its final straightaway, but it looks like there will be some serious twists before it is complete. So, who will it be in the end?

Next U.N. Secretary-General, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.

Member states have from the start of this race been open about preferring a female candidate and with Eastern Europe being the only region not yet to produce a U.N. Secretary-General, the expectation at the start of the race was that we might see a female U.N. Secretary-General from the region.

However, Irina Bokova, the Bulgarian Director-General of UNESCO and the only candidate to meet both criterias, is now trailing in the polls while the hope of having a new female leader (from any UN member state) is starting to become a long shot. Even Helen Clark, early favorite, is trailing in the polls.

Woman to be the next U.N. Secretary-General, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.

About the election itself, it is important to know that the Security Council will hold secret ballots until a consensus is reached on a candidate to replace Ban Ki-moon. We have recently received the results of the fourth straw poll and there are 10 hopefuls left vying to replace Ban Ki-moon. You can see the results of the voting HERE.

So, at the moment, the first favorite is Antonio Guterres, former Portuguese Prime Minister, and he is followed by Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajcak. Irina Bokova and Vuk Jeremic, former Serbian Foreign Minister, are also ranked high but the following vote could change a lot. And before that happens place bet on your favorite at Fairlay.

Days of Hillary Clinton: Can she become the President, does she really has pneumonia, will she be indicted?

Few weeks ago, after defeating Bernie Sanders and taking big lead in the polls over Donald Trump, everything looked great for Hillary Clinton. But everything soon changed. So, can she turn around that negative change in her favor, or will all the different problems surrounding Hillary help Donald Trump to become the next President after all?

Next President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-president-11/.

This morning the news came that Trump has 5-point lead in Bloomberg poll of battleground Ohio, and at RealClearPolitics polls Hillary’s lead is now at +2.1, which lowest since August 1. This came as a result as Hillary Clinton’s health became a real issue in the presidential campaign, after she felt ill during 9/11 memorial service in New York.

Is Clinton diagnosed with Parkinson? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/is-clinton-diagnosed-with-parkinson/.

Soon after that Clinton’s campaign issued a statement from her doctor revealing that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia two days earlier. Still, plenty of people, even some doctors, speculated that it is not just pneumonia, but that Hillary has Parkinson's Disease. Of course, also came speculations that she will resign even if she becomes President.

Will Hillary Clinton resign when she is president? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-hillary-clinton-resign-when-she-is-president/.

Health problems put a bit of shadow on her emails problems. Could Hillary Clinton really be indicted over her emails, has been one of the burning questions for months and though both she and plenty expert opinion from the start said it’s not going to happen, huge amount of voters disagreed with the FBI’s decision not to indict Hillary at the time.

Hillary Clinton will be indicted in 2016, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/hillary-clinton-will-be-indicted-in-2016-1/.

All in all, with presidential election being less than two months away, Hillary is not at the great position right now. But, Donald Trump wasn’t either few weeks ago and he found ways to calm the situation and use Hillary’s bad period. So, what will follow next? Is it really just a pneumonia, is FBI done with Hillary, and can she become the next President?

Man Booker Prize: Who will win it this year?

A shortlist for the Man Booker prize for Fiction, a literary prize awarded each year for the best original novel written in the English language and published in the UK, was announced today. It includes six titles, with few big names including JM Coetzee, AL Kennedy and Pulitzer winner Elizabeth Strout out after judges’ agonizing and exhilarating rereading.

If you are not similar with it, the winner of the Man Booker Prize is generally assured of international renown and success; therefore, the prize is of great significance for the book trade. Thus it is greeted with great anticipation and fanfare, and it is also a mark of distinction for authors who are selected for inclusion in the shortlist.

Man Booker Prize 2016 - Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/man-booker-prize-2016-winner/.

After shortlist was announced this morning, British author Deborah Levy, who was shortlisted for the Booker in 2012 for Swimming Home, became the first favorite for the win with her novel ‘Hot Milk’, an examination of female rage, sexuality and the bond between mother and daughter. Still, it is not a huge favorite and any other writer could prevail.

American author Paul Beatty is a second favorite for his satire about a man who tries to reintroduce slavery and segregate the local high school, ‘The Sellout’. He is followed by Canadian-born writer David Szalay’s ‘All That Man Is’, and Scottish writer Graeme Macrae Burnet’s story of murder in a 19th-century named ‘His Bloody Project’.

Last two shortlisted are Canadian Madeleine Thien’s ‘Do Not Say We Have Nothing’, and a debut novel from the American writer Ottessa Moshfegh, who at 35 is the youngest author on the shortlist for her psychological thriller ‘Eileen’. So, who is your favorite? You have until October 25 to choose wisely and predict the winner at Fairlay.

Oscars 2017: Who will be Best Director, and who will win the awards for Best Actor and Best Actress?

Last Monday, Fairlay put you on offer markets for the Best Picture and Announced Host of the 89th Academy Awards ceremony but this Monday it is time to add three other main categories: Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress.

As for the Best Picture, ‘La La Land’ is still the first favorite but its director Damien Chazelle is the third favorite to win the award for directing. Ahead of him are Ang Lee for ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’ and Kenneth Lonergan for directing ‘Manchester by the Sea’. At the moment, they are both given the same chances to get Best Director award.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.

Though its chances for Best Picture are not huge, drama ‘Manchester by the Sea’ could win few of the main awards as its lead actor Casey Affleck is the first favorite to win the Best Actor award. Given by the trailer, he did a great job.

But, Denzel Washington wants few awards as well. At the moment he is among six directors that are the main favorites for Best Director, but Denzel Washington is also the second favorite for the Best Actor awards as it looks like that he did great job on the movie ‘Fences’, both as a director and the main actor. Still, we have plenty of other options as well.

The Oscars 2016 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.

And how big ‘Manchester by the Sea’ could become shows the fact that its Michelle Williams is the first favorite for the Best Actress. Thus, with this she is confirming this drama as one of the biggest contenders to take the main awards.

Still, let’s not hurry as there are plenty of other great movies. ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’ is one of them and Kristen Stewart is amongst the favorites to win the Best Actress awards, as well as the likes of Naomie Harris (‘Moonlight’) Aja Naomi King (‘The Birth of a Nation’) Nicole Kidman (‘Lion’), and Dakota Fanning (‘American Pastoral’).

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress/.

Oscars are not so far anymore, season of great movies is ahead of us so don’t miss the chance to use the great odds. And if you are more of a TV person, don’t miss the chance to place the predictions on the Sunday’s Emmy Awards.

Will the US Federal Reserve lift the rate in 2016?

As Financial Times explains, slower jobs growth and overseas hazards prompted the Federal Reserve in its recent statements to keep rates unchanged and trim back its longer-term interest rate forecasts, in a sign of greater caution.

The US central bank held the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent, where it has been since the Fed lifted rates by a quarter point from near-zero levels in December, as it assesses a mixed set of economic indicators.

US Federal Reserve to lift the rate in 2016? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/us-federal-reserve-to-lift-the-rate-in-2016/.

The median of Fed forecasts suggested that policymakers were still expecting two interest rate increases this year, but not one happened till now, and traders are split on whether the Fed will raise rates even once this year.

"An increase is on the table" at the Fed's next meeting, on Sept 20-21, San Francisco Fed President John Williams told reporters recently. So, we will have to wait and see will this increase happen, and by then you can predict the outcome at Fairlay’s market.

Oscars 2017: Who will be the host and which movie will win the Best Picture?

For some it is only the start of September, but for others it is just the time to talk about Oscars contenders. This year 89th Academy Awards is scheduled to take place on February 26 and most favorites are still to be released but being one of Fairlay's most popular market it is never too early to predict which movie will win the Best Picture for this year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.

At the moment, early favorite is the ‘La La Land’, Hollywood-set musical about the romance between a jazz pianist and an aspiring actress, with Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone in lead roles. It is directed by Damien Chazelle whose ‘Whiplash’ won three Oscars two years ago. But it is common that early favorite wins nothing later. But, this movie looks beautiful.

Second favorite is drama ‘Manchester by the Sea’ which involves Casey Affleck and was big Sundance success. Another Sundance sensation, and Grand Jury Prize winner, ‘The Birth of a Nation’ is also amongst the favorites, as well as ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’, story about a group of soldiers set during a salute to the soldiers at the football game.

Three movies with short titles ‘Fences’, ‘Loving’, and ‘Lion’, but with beautiful stories, are amongst those top seven on the first edition of Fairlay’s Best Picture market. Of course, you have option ‘Other’ if your favorite for the Best Picture is not amongst these seven movies. Anyway, choose wisely as all odds are great and right prediction brings the high value.

The Oscars 2017 - Host, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-host/.

Another interesting early Oscars markets is who will be announced as a host of the following ceremony. At the moment, the first favorite is Kevin Hart, the star of many hit comedies who openly and repeatedly has begged for the job. And he is closely followed by Louis CK who last year impressed with his hilarious presentation of the best documentary short.

Still, Louis CK fan base is rather small, and because of this the comedy team of Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele is the third favorite at the moment. Some other popular names like Amy Schumer, Justin Timberlake, Ricky Gervais, Chris Pratt, and Anna Kendrick are ranked high and you can get great odds if you guess right that any of them will be the host.

Hillary email archive is still a top story, but when will Julian Assange leave the Ecuadorian embassy?

Two years ago, Julian Assange’s press conference, at which he told an expectant world that he would be leaving the Ecuadorian embassy “soon”, induced yawns from the assembled hacks. And indeed, nothing happened. Weeks, months, years passed by and the founder of WikiLeaks is still staying in the embassy of Ecuador in London.

Julian Assange again got into the center of world attention as U.S. intelligence agencies are still sorting out how emails and documents from the Democratic National Committee made their way to WikiLeaks. With all of this, he even had a long video interview with The New York Times, but it still not sure when will he leave the UK.

Will Assange escape the UK before 2020? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-assange-escape-the-uk-before-2020/.

As you probably know, Ecuador granted him asylum in August 2012, but as soon as he sets foot outside the building Britain will deport him to Sweden as the UK courts have ruled he must be sent to Sweden. And in Sweden, the most serious of the allegations he faced there, that of rape, will not expire until 2020.

And as the Ecuadorian authorities have stated that he can remain in the embassy as long as he wishes, Julian Assange still thinks that there is a real risk he will be extradited from Sweden to the US. But, it still wouldn’t be a surprise if he found ways to leave the UK before 2020, but will that really happen? Predict at Fairlay.

Bitcoin’s price is still in range between $565 and $585, but where will it go after that?

After few calm weeks, we are now heading towards a seasonal period that is more conducive to volatility in all financial markets, so could that affect big changes in Bitcoin price as well? Its price has been steady as a rock over the past couple of weeks as a consolidation range between $565 and $585 remained intact.

Currently, some analysists are saying that if the market can keep price above the $550 support zone we may be looking at the formation of a base pattern prior to an advance toward $680. They are also saying that the smart strategy in the current chart is to wait for price to advance above $600, since that will open the way to $680.

Bitcoin price on October 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-october-1/.

But, as always, there are plenty of other opinions of price going in difference directions. Though many think that it will not go lower as it didn’t after Bitfinex hack, while there are always those who think that it can go few hundreds up in the following weeks. And, are you among those who can use the knowledge in these predictions?

At ‘Bitcoin price on October 1’ Fairlay market you have five options and those least likely to happen are that it will go under $500, or over $650. With current price at $572, biggest chances are that it will stay in the range of $550 - $600, though it wouldn’t be big surprise to go a bit under or over that range. So, what do you predict?