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101  Economy / Speculation / I've figured out the bitcoin market on: February 05, 2013, 06:49:58 PM
I have used the scientific method (hypothesis followed by experiment).

It's pretty simple actually: Every time I buy the price goes down. Every time I sell the price goes up. Last night I bought in with half my capital, so we should now see a period of stability Roll Eyes
102  Economy / Gambling / [deleted] on: February 03, 2013, 05:40:10 PM
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103  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Satoshi Dice double spend. Transactions won't confirm! Balance wrong. No idea!! on: December 18, 2012, 07:48:28 AM
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104  Economy / Speculation / Re: why dump 12k+ coins into the market at once? on: December 07, 2012, 12:55:19 AM
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105  Other / Off-topic / Re: Fun Conspiracy theory! on: December 05, 2012, 03:40:41 AM
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106  Economy / Speculation / Re: I forced the 10 day high last night. What do you think about that? on: December 04, 2012, 05:16:24 PM
The ask price is now 12.94.

You still buyin up?

Didn't think so

Tongue

Obviously not. My point is that maybe breaking a 10-day high provided psychological relief after the post-halving uncertainty, thus opening the floodgates for the subsequent buying volume.

107  Economy / Speculation / Re: I forced the 10 day high last night. What do you think about that? on: December 04, 2012, 05:02:05 PM
So even though the price has been drifting higher ever since the WordPress announcement, you seem to think that your 700btc purchase is the reason it went up during the past 24 hrs?

Don't overestimate your effect on the market Wink

Well, I started buying at 12.66. So yes, it was the reason it went up to 12.75, and it only took seconds to do so. I'm not claiming anything else about the past 24 hours. But in particular, could the past 12 hours have been a result of this initial jump?

I realize that this kind of volume represents a drop in the ocean on Mt.Gox, but is the psychological effect of High/Low price not volume-independent?
108  Economy / Speculation / Re: I forced the 10 day high last night. What do you think about that? on: December 04, 2012, 04:32:40 PM
What's a CSV? Here are the peak transactions from my Mt.Gox history. Feel free to correlate this with the truth.

2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.03938522 BTC   672.42384362 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686511345] 9.84630509 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      9.84630509 BTC   672.46322884 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686511345] 9.84630509 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00400000 BTC   662.61692375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686466200] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      1.00000000 BTC   662.62092375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686466200] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00600000 BTC   661.62092375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686394076] 1.50000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      1.50000000 BTC   661.62692375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686394076] 1.50000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00040000 BTC   660.12692375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686306405] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      0.10000000 BTC   660.12732375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686306405] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00120000 BTC   660.02732375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686114763] 0.30000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      0.30000000 BTC   660.02852375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686114763] 0.30000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00032000 BTC   659.72852375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686076329] 0.08000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      0.08000000 BTC   659.72884375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686076329] 0.08000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:06   Fee      0.00400000 BTC   659.64884375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686034419] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:06   In      1.00000000 BTC   659.65284375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594686034419] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:05   Fee      0.00040000 BTC   658.65284375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685952342] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:05   In      0.10000000 BTC   658.65324375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685952342] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:05   Fee      0.11927640 BTC   658.55324375 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685826248] 29.81910000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:05   In      29.81910000 BTC   658.67252015 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685826248] 29.81910000 BTC at $12.75000
2012/12/03 23:18:05   Fee      0.00404379 BTC   628.85342015 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685765158] 1.01094809 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee)
2012/12/03 23:18:05   In      1.01094809 BTC   628.85746394 BTC
BTC bought: [tid:1354594685765158] 1.01094809 BTC at $12.75000
109  Economy / Speculation / I forced the 10 day high last night. What do you think about that? on: December 04, 2012, 04:28:14 PM
I bought around 700 BTC at market price and drove the 10 day high to 12.75. I first had to sell BTC to get the money, and by the time I sold and bought, this market experiment cost me around 15 BTC in fees and personal losses. But... psychologically, it obviously had an effect on the market. By popping the 10 day plateau (and the 3 day post-halving uncertainty) I think it injected some short-term confidence in the market. When I wake up this morning I see a 12.93 high. Well, that wasn't me. But obviously it took off. And now we're around 12.85 and I've already covered my losses!

So surely this is a form of sentiment manipulation? I guess we cannot manipulate supply and demand, but we can manipulate emotions which drive them. Emotions are tightly wound around certain symbolic price points, so it would make sense that forcing the price above or below those price points (albeit artificially) could be a catalyst for real movement around those price points.

What do you think about this?

And what do you think would happen if we rally above 13.09?
110  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket. on: December 01, 2012, 11:24:15 PM
It may not be the time to buy, but does that mean it is the time to sell?
111  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's quiet, too quiet. Especially after everyone predicted a major rocket. on: December 01, 2012, 11:13:02 PM
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112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Iran discovers Bitcoin on: November 30, 2012, 07:50:25 AM
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113  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its getting really F'ing cold! good time to buy? on: November 30, 2012, 05:05:39 AM
This is about as relevant an indicator of bitcoin as ice cream sales on a hot summer day are an indicator of suicides.
114  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Whitelist Requests (Want out of here?) on: November 29, 2012, 03:05:17 PM
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115  Other / Beginners & Help / [deleted] on: October 13, 2012, 09:57:19 PM
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