Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is bullish, though it only consolidated last week, moving between the support line at 1.1700 and the resistance line at 1.1850. A movement above the aforementioned resistance line would put more emphasis on the bullish bias, while a movement below the support line could result in a threat to the bullish bias. On the other hand, further consolidation for the next several trading days would bring out a neutral bias on the market. No matter what happens this week, EUR would be seen going upwards versus certain currencies like AUD and NZD.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is essentially a bear market, although there was a bearish effort between July 25 and August 8, it was not enough to override the overall bearish bias. After testing the resistance line at 0.9750, further bullish effort was rejected as price came down by 250 pips, closing below the resistance line at 0.9650 on Friday. This week, the market would endeavor to target the support levels at 0.9550 and 0.9500 (even possibly exceeding it).

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
In the context of a downtrend, GBPUSD moved sideways last week. Price oscillated between the distribution territory at 1.3050 and the accumulation territory at 1.2950. A movement below the accumulation territory at 1.2950 would put more emphasis on the bearish mode of the market, while a movement above the distribution territories at 1.3050, 1.3100 and 1.3150 would result in a new bullish signal. This week, GBP also would be seen moving upwards versus certain currencies like AUD and NZD.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
From the August high of 114.47, this trading instrument has dropped by 550 pips, testing the demand level at 109.00, and closing above the demand level on Friday. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and thus, it is logical to conclude that price would continue going downwards this week, aiming at the demand levels of 109.00, 108.50 and 108.00. There could be transitory upward bounces along the way. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The long-expected bearishness on EURJPY is here. Last week, price dropped 250 pips, ending the recent neutrality on the market (which was in place for roughly three weeks), and bringing about a bearish bias. On Friday, price bounced upwards, closing slightly above the demand zone at 129.00; thus creating a wonderful opportunity to sell short at a better price, while the outlook on the market remains bearish. This week, price is expected to go lower, reaching the demand zones at 128.50, 128.00 and 127.50

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“All good traders are also good record keepers. If they win a trade, they want to know exactly why and how… Traders who win consistently treat trading as a business.” - Matt Blackman


Source: www.tallinex.com

AUS200
Dominant bias: Neutral
In the last two months, this market has not moved in a directional mode. It has been moving only in a zigzag manner since then, in a quite choppy environment. This has led to the current neutrality on the market – which is supposed to continue in the next few weeks. The market is currently not attractive, and thus, no position is recommended until there is a directional movement, which would either push price above the resistance line at 5840.00, or below the support line at 5630.00. As long as price stays between the aforementioned resistance and support lines, the neutral bias on the market would be in place.   

SPX500
Dominant bias: Bullish
SPX500 is bullish in the long-term and neutral in the short-term. While the overall bias remains bullish, price has consolidated in the last two weeks, though bull is still intent on pushing price further northwards. A movement above the resistance level at 2485.0 would result in more emphasis on the bullish bias; while a movement below the support level at 2400.0 would result in a threat to the bullish bias (but that would require a very serious and protracted selling pressure). Before a directional movement occurs, the current short-term consolidation would continue for several trading days. 

US30
Dominant bias: Bullish
US30 is bullish, both in the long-term and the short-term. The bullishness in the market is strong – as emphasized by the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in it. Price was bullish both in June and July (gaining more than 500 points in July). August also started on a bullish note, and price has gone upwards so far, gaining additional 130 points along the way. This month, US30 is expected to continue its slow and steady journey to the north, raking in at least, another 200 points. There could be occasional pauses or shallow pullbacks along the way, but the market movement would generally be bullish.

GER30
Dominant bias: Bearish
This interesting market, fluctuated wildly in June, and became bearish in July. The wild fluctuation is still in place – only that it is happening in a context of a bearish bias. In July, price reached a high of 12679.0 and a low of 12081.9. Any bullish attempts in this market may be seen as opportunities to sell short at better prices. This August, price would first exceed the low of July (12081.9), and then go towards the demand level at 12000.0 which is the ultimate target for the month. However, that does not rule out the possibility that the ultimate target might be breached to the downside, especially in the face strong bearish pressures. 

FRA40
Dominant bias: Bearish
FRA40 became bearish in June, after reaching the high of 5487.7 in May. That high has thus remained the highest price of FRA40 this year, and it could eventually be the high of the year. From the May high, till now, price has moved southward by 3,700 points, doing so in a slow and steady way in July. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means that the upwards bounce that has been witnessed in this month is not something to be taken seriously, for price would go further downwards, targeting the demand zones at 5079.0, which could even be breached to the downside. There is a strong demand zone at 5000.0.

Source: www.tallinex.com

“One of the things that amazes me most about trading is that the longer I do it the more I admit that I don’t know. For a very long time I have been convinced that I have no idea where the price of instrument is going. I certainly know a lot about market dynamics, the history of markets (which is something everyone should study) and about my own reactions to events. But I have sold all idea about where the market is going. Granted I can create a narrative in my own head to justify my own positions but at the end of the day I simply make a bet on the direction of an instrument and I am consciously aware of my own behavioural short comings.” – Chris Tate (an expert veteran of the markets, more than 30 years of experience)

Anyone can learn to be a trader – but making a success of it involves more than just pushing Bid and Ask buttons. You need good strategies that will allow you to deal with the vagaries of the market.

It’s no secret that the majority of traders lose. But some succeed and become rich, even super-rich. These are the super traders.

Insights into the Mindset of Super Traders reveals the life stories of 20 selected master traders: how they think, how they view the markets, and how they make their fortunes. The book gives an overview of their careers and explains what lessons can be drawn from their success.


 “THREE QUESTIONS TRADERS WOULD LIKE TO ASK RIGHT NOW.”

Why is trading so difficult?
Answer: What makes trading appear very difficult is the fact that the market can never be predicted. When we predict, we’re sometimes wrong or right. However, having an impression that the market can be predicted is the single most important reason why most traders end getting frustrated. No matter the analytical method you use (Monte Carlo, Neural Networks, Horology, robots, Gann, news, Ichimoku, etc), you can’t predict the future. Your frustration will continue as long as you think you can predict the market. Once you admit you can’t do this, your frustration ends, because you’ve aligned yourself with the reality in the market.

What benefit can I get from trading?
Answer: Freedom. Freedom is everything. You master your financial destiny, growing richer and richer gradually. Very soon, you’ll realize that trading is the best vehicle for financial freedom; plus the greatest game on earth. Sadly, many people don’t believe this fact.

How can I experience permanent success in the markets?
Answer: You will attain permanent success once you devise a way to make money in the market without being able to predict the market – without knowing what the market will do next. This kind of strategy isn’t hard to devise. You’ll then see each new trade as a potential loser until you’re proven otherwise. This mindset will enable you to activate stops and use a small position size. You’ll know trading is simply a game of probability and with a good RRR, the odds will eventually come in your favour. This is what’s called positive expectancy. With this simple approach, you’ll no longer see trading as difficult. More importantly, you will attain permanent success without the ability to know the future, which begins from your mind.


This piece is ended with 2 quotes:

“Talking about trader psychology may stir intellectual debate, but the real work of trader psychology is about re-working the beliefs are you projecting onto the markets about your capacity to manage uncertainty (with your trading account as the arbiter).  Simply being knowledgeable is never enough.  It is the hard, but satisfying, work of examining the beliefs that drive your performances in trading that matter.”  - Rande Howell

“The complete trader is able to combine all or parts of the above approaches with his own style. Trading mastery combines observation, scientific knowledge, good judgment, intuition, and creative instincts with decisive action.” – Joe Ross


Tap the secret here (almost free of charge):
http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html 

www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader.

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair edged higher last week, reaching the resistance line at 1.1900, before the pullback that is currently being experienced. Price has gained more than 1000 pips since early May 2017, and the trend for this year has generally been bullish. The pullback may end up giving a good opportunity to buy long at better prices, in the context of an uptrend (for the outlook on EUR is bullish for this week). Price could thus target the resistance lines at 1.1800, 1.1850 and 1.1900. 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
A recent weakness in CHF has made USD/CHF go upwards, resulting in the current bullish bias. However, the bullish bias is currently precarious, for price merely consolidated last week, closing above the support line at 0.9700. Further consolidation this week would result in a neutral bias, unless price is able to breach the resistance level at 0.9750 to the upside, closing above it. On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 0.9550 would result in a bearish bias, which may happen in case CHF gathers bullish momentum (a possibility).   

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD is bullish, but there is a threat to the bullishness. As the market moved in a positive correlation with its EURUSD counterpart, its price was able to go up last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.3250, before there was a considerable pullback on Thursday and Friday.  From the high of last week (1.3262), price dropped 210 pips, closing below the distribution territory at 1.3050 (hence the threat to the bullish bias). The threat may increase as price goes further southward, as the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week. The accumulation territories at 1.3000 and 1.2950 could be breached easily.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Here is a bear market, with a clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price has been going southwards in a slow and steady manner, having lost 430 pips since July 11. The market bounced upwards on August 4, but that pales into insignificance when compared to the overall bearish bias. This week, the bearish journey would continue - owing to the ongoing bearish expectation certain JPY pairs. The initial target is the demand level at 110.50, then followed by the demand level at 110.00 which was also tested last week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral   
The neutrality on this trading instrument continued last week. Price attempted to stay above the supply zone at 131.00, but the attempt proved abortive. Had the attempt succeeded, a bullish signal would have been generated. The weakness that was seen in the last few days of last week has only put more emphasis on the neutrality of the market. One factor preventing a serious bearish movement in this market is the stamina in EUR, and therefore, there may not be a big pullback until EUR undergoes exponential weakness.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Be proud you're a trader. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his failures, nor does he ask to be loved for his flaws. A trader does not squander his body as fodder, or his soul as alms. Just as he does not give his work except in trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his spirit - his love, his friendship, his esteem - except in payment and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his own selfish pleasure, which he receives from men he can respect…” - Ayn Rand

Source: www.tallinex.com

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Gold went downwards in June, but went upwards in July, thus recovering some of the losses sustained in June. In July, a low of 1204.53 was reached, while a high of 1270.63 was also reached – showing bull’s supremacy. The bullish effort that was made last month has resulted in a bullish bias, which is supposed to continue this month. Gold may target the resistance levels at 1270.00, 1275.00 and 1280.00. These are initial targets, which might be exceeded as price goes northwards in slow and steady manner. 

SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Silver plummeted in June and early July, reaching a low of 14.3553. The low was reached as a result of a flash crash that was experienced in the first week of July, which was quickly recovered as price bounced seriously upwards, closing the month on a bullish note. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on Silver, which signals further bullish effort in August. The next targets are located at the supply levels at 17.0000, 17.5000 and 18.0000, which would require a very strong buying pressure to exceed. 

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Bitcoin is both volatile and choppy (though the overall bias on the market is bullish). There was a serious bearish movement in the first half of July, which culminated in a gap-down. That threatened the bullish bias, but the second half of the month saw an agreeable recovery as price went upwards by roughly 100,000 pips from the low of the month. This has helped emphasize the recent bullish outlook on the market, which is expected to continue in August. The distribution territories at 2900.00, 2950.00 and possibly, 3000.00 are being aimed. However, there is a probability of a pullback as price approaches the distribution territory at 3000.00, which is an important territory. 


Source: www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURUSD, which has generally been bullish this year, went upwards by 100 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1750. Some attempts were made to breach the resistance line to the upside, but to no avail. However, the resistance line remains under siege and it may be breached to the upside, as other resistance lines at 1.1800 and 1.1850 are targeted. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week, but bullish for August 2017; so we may see some considerable correction before the end of the week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
Perpetual weakness in CHF has helped USDCHF to generate a clean bullish signal (most CHF pairs also skyrocketed while the CHF/JPY plummeted). Price gained about 250 pips last week, and it is currently volatile. The market would continue going upwards as long as CHF shows weakness. This is a classical example of when both USDCHF and EURUSD go into a positive correlation; i.e., they both go upwards. The USDCHF normally goes into opposite direction to EURUSD, but this time around, the case is being influenced by exponential weakness in CHF. Price may go further upwards to test the resistance levels at 0.9750 and 0.9800. However, CHF would regain its losses, starting from this week and throughout August; something that would send CHF pairs (including USDCHF) southwards.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD was able to retain its bullishness last week, trying to go upward just like EURUSD has done, since both of them normally go into positive correlation. The distribution territory at 1.3150 was tested repeatedly last week, and it might be breached to the upside this week, as other distribution territories at 1.3200 and 1.3250 are aimed. Although GBP pairs would experience mixed results in August, GBPUSD would not really become bearish as long as it stays above the accumulation territory at 1.2850.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
In this market, this month has been bearish so far.  Last week was also characterized by bearishness in spite of bull’s desperate effort to push price upwards, which made price tested the supply level at 112.00, before price went downwards to close below the demand level at 111.00. The next target is the demand level at 110.50, which would easily be breached as other demand levels at 110.00 and 109.50 are targeted. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week and for August. Therefore, long trades are not recommended. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral   
This currency trading instrument has been consolidating for about two weeks, resulting in short term neutrality. A movement above the supply zone at 130.50 would bring about a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market; while a movement below the demand zone at 128.00 would result in a bearish bias. This is what is expected to happen within the next several trading days. Nonetheless, bear would eventually become a winner in August. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“It doesn’t matter how often a method or system wins, what matters is the bottom line: does the method or system make money for you?! If it does, then stick with the bottom line.” - Andy Jordan

Source: www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
On EURUSD, bull was the clear winner last week. Price went upwards by 210 pips, breaking the multi-month high at 1.1600 and closing above the support line at 1.1650. Since June 27, price has gained 470 pips, and there is still more room for upwards movement, for price could reach the resistance lines at 1.1700, 1.1750 and 1.1800 this week. Nevertheless, it should be noted that, the more the market goes upwards, the more the chances of a reversal (which could happen before the end of the month). 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair went down about 200 pips last week, making bear the clear winner. Since May 12, the market has gone down by more than 600 pips, leading to a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On Friday, price went briefly below the support level at 0.9450, and later closed above it. This week, further downwards movement is expected and the support levels at 0.9450, 0.9400, and 0.9350 could be tried. In case USD gains a considerable amount of stamina, there would be an upwards bounce in the market.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
Cable is bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. Price tested the distribution territory at 1.3100, and then began to be corrected downwards last week, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.2950. A movement above the distribution territory at 1.1300 would help restore the bullish confident; while a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.2800 would result in a bearish bias. A movement between the distribution territory at 1.3050 and the accumulation territory at 1.2900 would keep the short-term neutrality in the market.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a bearish signal on USDJPY. Price went southwards by 140 pips last week (having gown downwards by 330 pips since July 11). On Friday, the demand level at 111.00 was tested – it would be breached to the downside this week. Other bearish targets are located at the demand levels of 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50. There is a strong bearish outlook on JPY pairs this week, and therefore, long trades are not recommended on USDJPY. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The bias on this cross is bullish, though price only consolidated last week. Further consolidation can result in a short-term neutrality. One reason why the bullish bias has held out so far is the stamina in EUR itself. This week, there are possibilities that the supply zones at 130.50 and 131.00 can be tested this week. On the other hand, there could be a strong pullback before the end of the week (or the month), owing to a bearish outlook on JPY pairs for the rest of the month.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading is a great business for those who master it, and those who master it are traders who have mastered themselves.” – Joe Ross

INTRODUCTION: Hello Traders. The article below is useful for all areas of human endeavors (including trading). Please read it to discover a great secret today. Read between the lines and see how the facts revealed here aptly apply to trading.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------


There are, broadly speaking, two ways to see the world and these have a great influence on how successful you become.

The first is what psychologists call the “external locus of control,” and the second is the “internal locus of control.”

You see… as the world around you changes, you can either attribute success and failure to things you have control over, or to forces outside your influence.

And which orientation you choose has a huge bearing on your long-term success.

This concept dates back to the 1960s with Julian Rotter’s investigation into how people’s behaviours and attitudes affected the outcomes of their lives.

Locus of control describes what individuals perceive about the underlying main causes of events in his/her life.


Put more simply:

Are you the pilot of your life or you just a passenger?

Do you believe that your destiny is controlled by you or by external forces (such as fate, the government, your boss, the system or others)?

Here’s how Charles Duhigg—the author of the book Smarter Faster Better describes locus of control:

“Locus of control has been a major topic of study within psychology since the 1950s. Researchers have found that people with an internal locus of control tend to praise or blame themselves for success or failure, rather than assigning responsibility to things outside their influence. A student with a strong internal locus of control, for instance, will attribute good grades to hard work, rather than natural smarts. A salesman with an internal locus of control will blame a lost sale on his own lack of hustle, rather than bad fortune.

“‘Internal locus of control has been linked with academic success, higher self motivation and social maturity, lower incidences of stress and depression, and longer life span,’ a team of psychologists wrote in the journal Problems and Perspectives in Management in 2012. People with an internal locus of control tend to earn more money, have more friends, stay married longer, and report greater professional success and satisfaction”



What is an external locus of control?

Well, we all know those people.

In fact, sometimes we are those people.

Nothing is ever their fault. There is always an excuse. The world is out to get them, life is unfair.

Duhigg describes it as follows:

“…Having an external locus of control—believing that your life is primarily influenced by events outside your control—’is correlated with higher levels of stress, [often]because an individual perceives the situation as beyond his or her coping abilities,’ the team of psychologists wrote” (24).


The benefits of an Internal Locus of Control

In general, people with an internal locus of control:

Engage in activities that will improve their situation.
Emphasize striving for achievement.
Work hard to develop their knowledge, skills and abilities.
Are inquisitive, and try to figure out why things turned out the way they did.
Take note of information that they can use to create positive outcomes in the future.
Have a more participative management style.


The bottom line:

We aren’t born with an unalterable locus of control, so it is critical to keep an eye on in ourselves so we can improve the way we look at the world.

Sure, bad things happen to us.

But rather than dwelling on them, it’s better to find a useful belief about them and move on.

It’s important to remove the idea that your life is dictated by forces outside of your control.

Of course, to one degree or another, it is. But there is plenty that we can control. You can create your own luck through study, hard work and perseverance.

It’s often said that you become a blend of the five people you hang out with the most.

This is important to keep in mind. Associate with positive people who believe they are in control of their own lives. Their beliefs and energy will rub off on you. And then yours will rub off on them.

It becomes a very powerful and positive feedback loop!



Author: Michael Yardney (a guest blogger at: Tradinggame.com.au) 

Author’s profile: Michael Yardney is a director of Metropole Property Strategists, which creates wealth for its clients through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He is a best-selling author, one of Australia’s leading experts in wealth creation through property and writes the Property Update blog.




PS: 4 useful trading quotes are also added below:


“There is a wise saying which came into being primarily since the advent of mechanical trading systems, and it goes something like this: "Your system will stop working when someone else builds his system based on your system." Can you see the truth in that? It is because of that reality that it is best to scout around for what may be working recently, and why it is a waste of time to backtest a system or method to see if it has worked for the last 10 years. You can't trade history you are forced to trade the present in an attempt to take advantage of the future.” – Joe Ross


“I’m not worried about being stingy, trying to get every last pip out of a trade; I want out of my position if the trade is going the wrong way! Do you want to be stingy or do you want to be OUT??” - Rick Wright


“A winner has the ability to find positive values from the most negative circumstances. This is the first reason why only emotionally healthy people can assume risks, they are able to rise above the superficial negative circumstances, discover trading opportunities and take decisive trading actions based on the current market conditions.” – Andy Jordan


“You have no control over whether you will win or lose – but you have enormous influence over the beliefs that drive the performance of your trading process.  This is the new “Winning Nature” that bridges the gap between controlling outcome (which is impossible) and controlling your process (which you can do repeatedly).  This leads to the calm, patient mind need for successful trading.”  - Rande Howell


Tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader.



Traders’ Mindset: Advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html 

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair has been going upwards since June 27, and the bullishness has been maintained. Price also went upwards last week, though in a zigzag manner, closing above the support line at 1.1450 on Friday, and trying to go for the resistance line at 1.1500 (the initial target for this week). Other targets are located at the resistance lines at 1.1550 and 1.1600, which would require a strong buying pressure to reach. 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is bearish in the long-term and neutral in the short-term. While the overall bias is bearish, price has not really assumed any protracted movement in the last two weeks. For the short-term neutrality to end, price needs to move above the resistance level at 0.9750, which would threaten the ongoing bearish outlook; or price would need to move below the support line at 0.9550, which would help emphasize the bearish outlook. As long as price does not move above the aforementioned resistance level or below that support level, the neutrality in the market would persist. 

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD moved upwards last week, gaining about 240 pips. The movement in the first few days of the week was flat, prior to the strong bullish movement that was witnessed on July 14. The market is intent on going further upwards, having tested the distribution territory at 1.3100. The distribution territory would be breached to the upside, for price would move further upwards by at least, 200 pips this week. The outlook on certain other GBP pairs is also bullish for this week.     

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although it is currently being threatened, the bias on this trading instrument is still bullish. The movement last week was essentially bearish, and as soon as price goes below the demand level at 111.50, things would go completely bearish (a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market). Only a strong rally from here can remove the threat on the current bullish bias. It should be borne in mind that the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for July. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The movement on EURJPY cross was bearish last week – in the context of an uptrend. Price first attempted to go upwards, but the attempt was halted as soon as the supply zone at 130.50 was reached. From that point, price got corrected by 180 pips, but it could not go below the demand zone at 128.50. For the bias to turn bearish, price would need to cut the demand zone at 128.50, while going further downwards. This is the expectation for this week, which could, however, be scuttled by incessant bouts of energy in Euro. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I believe a winning trading strategy should be easy to learn and apply in the real world.” - Jack Loftis

AUS200
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market has gone bearish since May and the bearishness has remained till now. There is a huge volatility in the market, which does not push price in a particular direction on a short-term basis, as the movement has been in a zigzag mode. This kind of action is supposed to continue in the next few weeks, as price subtly moves southwards. It is unlikely that the bias would turn bullish anytime soon; for that would require a very strong rally which would push price beyond the high of April 2017, which is located at 5997.42.

SPX500
Dominant bias: Bullish
SPX500 is bullish in the long-term and bearish in the short-term. The market is quite choppy and that is what it would continue to do in the next few weeks, until some unusual fundamental figure pushes price upwards to emphasize the long-term bullish bias; or price would go seriously downwards to override the long-term bullish bias. To stop the bearish threat, there is a need for the resistance level at 2455.0 to be breached to the upside. On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 2400.0 would result in a clean bearish signal.

US30
Dominant bias: Bullish
US30 is bullish in the long-term and neutral in the short-term. Price has been oscillating wildly, revealing a close struggle between the bull and the bear.  The currency market condition is expected to hold out for some time, prior to a seriously directional movement, which would underline the major bullish bias, once the distribution territory at 21563 is breached to the upside. Further southwards movement from here might result in a bearish bias, especially when the accumulation territory at 21000 is broken to the downside (something that would require a massive sell-off).

GER30
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market has turned bearish, after trending downwards in the last three weeks. Both the short-term and long-term movements are bearish (a Bearish Confirmation Pattern), and as such, long trades would be illogical at the present. From the high of June 20 (12958.3), the market has lost about 6,000 points; plus July has also started on a bearish note. There could be temporary pauses and rallies along the way (which could be ignored), as price goes further downwards, reaching the demand levels at 12300.0, 12200.0 and 12100.0.    

FRA40
Dominant bias: Bearish
FRA40 became bearish as a “sell” signal was generated on it in June, owing to the persistent downwards movement that started in May. The market gave up approximately 2,000 points in June, starting July on a bearish note (there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market). Since May 7, at least, 3700 points have been given up, and the trend is expected to continue this month, reaching the demand zones at 5100.0, 5000.0 and 4900.00 within the next several weeks. Bullish positions are not currently encouraged.

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The market was engaged in a bearish correction from Monday through Wednesday and then rallied on Thursday, to close on a bullish note on Friday. This has put some emphasis on the bullish bias on the market, which means that occasional corrections would often lead to further rallies. The outlook on EURUSD is bullish for this week (and so it is for other EUR pairs). The initial targets are located at the resistance lines at 1.1450, 1.1500 and 1.1550.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The USD/CHF made some bullish attempt in the first few days of last week, breaching the resistance level at 0.9650, but not being able to stay above it. The bullish attempt was not significant enough to pose any threat to the extant bearish bias, for price nosedived again on Thursday, owing to the new lease of stamina in EURUSD. The outlook on USD is bearish for this week, and as such further downwards movement towards the support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9550 is anticipated.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Basically, GBPUSD is bullish in the longer-term and bearish in the shorter-term. Price moved down by 110 pips last week, in the context of an uptrend, closing below the distribution territory at 1.2900. This week, the outlook on GBP pairs is strongly bullish, and as such, there is an expectation of a strong bullish movement to the upside, which would assert the presence of bulls. The initial targets are the distribution territories at 1.2900, 1.2950 and 1.3000 which have been previously attained. Price might even go beyond those targets.    

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since June 14, this pair has gained about 510 pips, moving in a perpetual bullish mode. Price is now very close to the supply level at 114.00; plus the possibility of breaching it to the upside is very high, owing to the clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern present in the market. Once the supply level is breached, the next targets would be the supply levels at 114.50, 115.00 and 115.50. However, the overall outlook for this month is bearish, and that may materialize anytime.  

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
The market moved sideways in the first few days of last week, before trending further northwards. Since June 15, this cross has gained about 740 pips, closing very close to the supply zone at 130.00 on Friday. The supply zone would be easily breached to the upside as price goes further towards other supply zones at 130.50, 131.00 and 131.50. There could, nonetheless, be some bearish reversals this month, but that may not happen as long as EUR is strong.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

"There is time to go long, time to go short, and time to go fishing.  A good signal jumps at you from the chart and grabs you by the face – you can’t miss it.” – Jesse Livermore

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold has turned bearish, owing to the protracted bearish movement that occurred in June. Price reached a high of 1295.87 on June 6, and then began to drop until the end of the month, losing 5400 pips in the process. This month has also opened on a strong bearish note as price goes further southwards, losing another 2000 pips this month. In this market, any rallies should be transient, offering opportunities to sell short at better prices, for price is expected to continue going southwards, losing at least, additional 3000 pips this month.

SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Silver has gone downwards perpetually since June, and it has also gone downwards so far this month. Price reached the top of 17.7463 in June, and then began to trend downwards. Since June 6, the downwards movement has been in place until now, and price still shows a possibility continual weakness (a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern has been formed in the market). This month, the downwards movement would enable price to reach the demand levels at 16.0000, 15.7500 and 15.5000 before the end of the month.

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
The market is bullish in the long-term and bearish in the short-term. The recent bullish movement ended on June 11, and the bearish movement started on June 12. Bitcoin is rather a volatile market, and the volatility is expected to continue as the bear fights to push price further south. A movement below the accumulation territory at 2100.00 would result in a bearish outlook, while a movement above the distribution territory at 2900.00 would reinforce the recent bullish outlook on the market. Either the aforementioned accumulation territory or the distribution territory would be breached before the end of this month.     

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Last week, a bullish breakout in this market put an end to the neutral bias on it, which was in place from June 12 to 23. Price gained more than 250 pips, almost reaching the resistance line at 1.1450, but closing above the support line at 1.1400. There is a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means that further bullish movement is a possibility. Nevertheless, the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this week; just as it was previously announced that the movements on EUR pairs would be bullish last week. We might see a meaningful bearish run on EURUSD before the end of this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair dropped precipitously last week, almost testing the support level at 0.9550 before closing near the resistance level at 0.9600. The bias on the market is currently bearish, but that may change once EURUSD drops before the end of this week. There are support levels at 0.9550 and 0.9500, which may be tested. An upwards movement may enable price to test the resistance levels at 0.9600, 0.9650 and 0.9700. 

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD, which normally gets positively correlated with EURUSD, also went upwards by 310 pips last week, closing above the accumulation territory at 1.3000 on Friday. There is a possibility of further upwards movement, but the movement would be limited since the outlook on this market, and certain on GBP pairs, is bearish for this week. This means that there could be a serious bearish correction before the end of the week. As usual, there would be strong volatility on GBP pairs in July.   

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDJPY moved slowly northward last week, testing the supply level at 112.50, but being unable to close above it. Since June 14, the market has gained about 340 pips while moving northwards slowing and gradually. The trend in the market is bullish, but that may soon be put to an end, for the outlook on the market is bearish for this week and for this month. JPY pairs are also expected to go bearish this week and in July.   

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
Unlike USDJPY, which moved upwards gradually and slowly last week, EURJPY cross moved upwards rapidly and significantly. Price went upwards from the demand zone at 124.50, and tested the supply zone at 128.50 (a movement of about 400 pips). There is a significant Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and short trades are currently not encouraged until there is a deep correction in the market, which would eventually happen, owing to a bearish outlook on JPY pairs for the month of July. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Independence has a slightly different meaning when it comes to the world of trading, but it is an important one. Trading gives us the independence from having to have a “9-5” job. It gives us the freedom to work from just about anywhere in the world (thanks, in part, to technology). We can choose what we want to trade, how much we want to trade and even take breaks whenever we want. It’s one of the best “jobs” you can have.” – TradingEducators

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
This market did nothing significant last week, save the movement between the resistance line at 1.1250 and the support line at 1.1100. The market has essentially become neutral, and that bias would hold out until the aforementioned resistance line is breached to the upside or the support line is breached to the downside. This is what is expected this week, for activity in the market would be greater than what was seen last week. Movement to the upside is more probable.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/CHF also did not do anything significant last week, tough the bearish bias still exists, most importantly in the long-term. Price tested the resistance level at 0.9750 and later closed below the resistance level at 0.9700 on Friday. Further bearish movement is anticipated this week, especially when EURUSD goes northward (which is a possibility). There are possible targets at the support lines of 0.9650, 0.9600 and 09550.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish 
The bearish signal that started on June 9 has lasted till now. Last week, price went downwards to test the accumulation territory at 1.2600, and later bounced upwards, to close above the accumulation territory at 1.2700. In spite of the upwards bounce, the outlook on GBPUSD remains bearish for this week (plus on certain other GBP pairs). Price could reach the accumulation territories of 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2600 - all of which were tested last week.   

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This currency trading instrument is currently in a neutral mode, owing to the tight consolidation that took place on it last week. A bullish signal was generated on June 15, but that was rendered ineffectual owing to the bull’s inability to push price protractedly northwards. In fact, the inability of the trading instrument to go more upwards may eventually result in a smooth bearish run before the end of this week, since the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the week.   

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This cross has been able to retain its bullishness so far, despite many odds against it. In most part of last week, price oscillated between the demand zone at 123.50 and the demand zone at 124.50 (formerly a supply zone). Since price was able to close above the demand zone at 124.50, an imminent bullish intent has been revealed. However, price may not move seriously upwards, because of the possibility of bearish movements, which can happen on JPY pairs.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Regular and honest self-assessment of your trading performance is crucial to your long-term success… It’s never comfortable to review a scenario and admit your mistakes, but doing so leads to massive personal growth as a trader — and in life too.” -  Deron Wagner

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The market largely consolidated last week – in the context of an uptrend. A movement below the support line at 1.1100 could trigger a bearish signal, and that exactly is what is expected this week, for the outlook on EURUSD (and some EUR pairs) is bearish. The targets for the week are located at the support lines of 1.1050 and 1.1000. However, there would not be a real threat to the current bullish outlook until the support line at 1.1100 is breached to the downside.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Despite the little bullish effort that was made in the last few days of last week, the bias on USDCHF is essentially bearish. The bias would, nevertheless, turn bullish, once the resistance level at 0.9900 is breached to the upside. That is a huge possibility this week, because EURUSD is expected to trend south (thereby helping USDCHF upwards), and CHF is also expected to be somewhat weak, which would enable USD to rally versus it.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral   
This is a volatile market, which has put the recent bullish outlook in a precarious situation. A protracted directional movement is needed before a new bias can be determined in the short-term. There is a need for the accumulation territory at 1.2600 to the breached to the downside before the bias can turn bearish, and there is a need for the distribution territory at 1.2900 to be breached to the upside before the bias can turn bullish. Until one of these two things happen, the bias would remain neutral. 

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This trading instrument is trying to make some bullish effort in the context of a downtrend. Last week, price consolidated and then made a faint bullish effort on Thursday and Friday, as it closed above the demand level at 110.50 on Friday.  The outlook on JPY pairs is again, bearish for this week, and as a result of this, any rallies perceived in the market should be disregarded, since they would turn out to be short-selling opportunities.   

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The bias on EURJPY remains bullish, although that may change at any time.  Price closed above the demand zone at 124.00 and it may hit the supply zones at 124.50 and 125.00, before turning south. Any gains in the Yen would cause JPY pairs to tumble, and EURJPY is no exception. Nevertheless, there is a need for price to go below the demand zone at 121.00 before the bias can really turn bearish.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I’ve reached the point where I can now support myself with my trading profits.” – Dr Jack Loftis

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although the bias on this pair is bullish, bulls are getting tired of pushing price upwards. Price consolidated last week, moving between the resistance line at 1.1200 and the resistance line at 1.1300, before it closed below the resistance line at 1.1200 on Friday. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish this week, and that may cause the market to assume a bearish journey, as the support lines at 1.1150 and 1.1100 are targeted.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/CHF moved between the resistance level at 0.9700 and the support level at 0.9600 last week. On Friday, an attempt was made to go above the resistance level at 0.9700, but price was forced to close below it. In spite of a faint rally that was seen last week, the dominant bias on the market remains bearish. Further bearishness is expected this week, as USD would be weak against some currencies like CHF, NZD and AUD. The only factor that could cause a noteworthy bullish run in the market is a major pullback on the EURUSD.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish   
It was formerly forecast that the outlook on GBP pair is bearish for June. GBP pairs went through major pullbacks last week as EURGBP shot skywards. That event was what put an end to the short-term neutrality on GBPUSD, which has been moving sideways before the pullback that happed on June 9. That event has caused a Bearish Confirmation Pattern to form in the market as price lost more than 200 pips (the initial loss was about 300 pips but price bounced upwards). This week, the bearish outlook on the market remains valid as further bearish movement is anticipated.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This trading instrument went downwards on Monday and Tuesday; and then made effort to go upwards on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. All this happened in the context of a downtrend, which is expected to continue this week, for the outlook on JPY pair is very bearish for the week. Thus, the demand levels at 109.50. 109.00, and 108.50 would be tested this week, as price goes southwards. 

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish   
The EUR/JPY cross is bullish in the long-term (though the long term-bullishness is now being threatened), and bearish in the short-term. Price dropped 150 pips last week, to test the demand zone at 123.00, after which it moved sideways for the rest of the week. Things are currently volatile, but further bearish movement is anticipated (just like on other JPY pairs); and thus, the demand zones at 123.00, 122.50 and 122.00 could be breached.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“If you have a strategy that works, stick to it.” – James Altucher

AUS200
Dominant bias: Bearish
On this market, a bearish signal was generated last month, when the market lost over 23,000 points. This has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, as this month was also opened on a strong bearish note. The market has lost more than 10,000 points this month, and this is just the beginning. In June, it is expected that AUS200 would lose at least, 20,000 points (10,000 points having been lost already). Thus, the support lines at 5630.00, 5600.00 and 5570.00 would be targeted and possibly be exceeded as the market goes further southwards.

SPX500
Dominant bias: Bullish
SPX500 consolidated from May 3 to 16, and then nosedived to test the support level at 2346.0. After that, price assumed a strong bullish movement as it rose over 800 points, ending May on a strong bullish note.  SPX500 has done nothing significant this week, save roughly sideways movement – in the context of an uptrend. The current consolidation may continue for the next several trading days, but when momentum rises, it would most probably favor bulls as price goes further north. The bullish bias on the market is far from being over.

US30
Dominant bias: Bullish
US30 as usual, is normally correlated with SPX500. The movement in the market in May, plus what has happened so far this month, is quite similar to the movement on the SPX500. Price consolidated between May 2 to 16, and then pulled back to test the accumulation territory at 20496. More pullback was rejected as price rose by roughly 600 points, seeing the month of June start with a strong bullish propensity. Nonetheless, the market has not done anything significant after that, save the ongoing sideways movement in the context of an uptrend. There would soon be a breakout which would most probably favor bulls.

GER30
Dominant bias: Bullish
This is a bull market, but things are quite rough. The last 2 weeks of May were particularly choppy, with no directional movement. Should the current condition of the market continue for the next several trading days, the bias on the market would become neutral in the short-term (whereas the long-term bias would remain bullish, as long as the market does not lose 5000 points from here). In spite of the extant choppy condition, the outlook on GER30 remains bullish for the month of June. So, price would eventually go towards the initial supply levels at 12850.0, 12900.0 and 12950.0. The first two supply levels were previously tested.   

FRA40
Dominant bias: Bullish
FRA40 was caught in an equilibrium phase in the last 2 weeks of May, while the bullish bias on the market remained intact. In June, a bearish signal has been generated in the short-term, while the long-term bias remains bullish (but threatened). The short-term bearish signal was caused by a 700-point bearish movement that occurred since the beginning of June. A movement towards the demand zone at 5090.0 would invalidate the dominant bullish bias, though that would require a heavy selling pressure in the market. A serious movement to the upside would override the short-term bearish signal in the market, and strengthen the dominant bullish bias.

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair consolidated in the first few days of last week, and then went slightly upwards. On Friday, price closed above the support line at 1.1250, targeting the resistance line at 1.1300. The outlook on EUR pairs, however, is bearish for this week, which means that EURUSD could experience a serious pullback before the end of the week. Before that happens, price would continue making some visible bullish effort. 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF went bearish last week, losing at least, 110 pips. The market has lost 460 pips since May 11, and that has caused a Bearish Confirmation Pattern to form in the chart. On June 2, price closed below the resistance level at 0.9650, going towards the support level at 0.9600, which is the first target for the week. The second target is the support level at 0.9550. The market is expected to continue going further and further southward, until EURUSD would experience a clear pullback, something that would cause USDCHF to spring upwards.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
GBPUSD is bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. In the short-term, price simply fluctuated without taking a specific direction. The situation may change this week as price goes above the distribution territory at 1.3050 to continue the long-term bullish bias; or goes below the accumulation territory at 1.2700, to form a new bearish bias. Price must thus go above the aforementioned distribution territory (1.3050) or accumulation territory (1.2700) before a directional bias can occur.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a bearish signal on this currency trading instrument, and price may continue going downwards to test demand levels at 110.00, 109.50 and 109.00. Price went sideways last week, but became conspicuously bearish on Friday. Rally attempts may happen along the way, but they are expected to be transient (not being able to form a bullish bias on the market), because the general outlook on this trading instrument, as well as other JPY pairs, is bearish for June.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The EUR/JPY cross is bullish in the long-term, and neutral in the short-term. Price generally went upwards in May; though it is yet to do anything noteworthy this month. The demand zone at 123.50 was tested last week before price went upwards by 180 pips, going above the demand zone at 125.00 briefly and then closing below it on Friday. As long as EUR is strong in itself, this cross would maintain some form of bullishness; otherwise it would eventually tumble. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“If you haven’t already experienced sideways market types for yourself, you will soon discover that they occur a lot more frequently and go for longer periods of time than most new traders realize.  If you know how to trade in sideways conditions, you will find plenty of opportunity and you’ll also dramatically boost your chances for long term trading success.” – Dr. Van Tharp

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish 
Gold began the current bullish movement on May 9, 2017 forming a bullish bias on the market. Price is currently above the support level at 1270.00, going towards the resistance level at 1280.00. Before May 9, 2017, there was a severe selling pressure in the market, but that May loss has now been fully recovered. In June, the outlook on Gold is bullish, for price is expected to go higher and higher. The initial target is located at the resistance level of 1295.22, which was the high of April. There is a possibility that the initial target would even be exceeded.

SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Silver is also bullish, now above the demand level at 17.2000.  The market went bearish from April 17 to May 9, 2017. However, further bearish movement was rejected at 16.0613, as a serious bullish movement began, which has held up until now. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which signals more northwards journey. Price is supposed to gain a minimum of 10,000 pips this month, but the ultimately target that is unlikely to be exceeded is the high of April – 18.6493. The bullish expectation does not rule out probabilities of temporary pullbacks.

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
This market, which is becoming more and more popular, has recently experienced maniacal volatility. Both the long-term and the short-term biases are bullish. Price has been going upwards from the beginning of this year, topping at 2797.27 on May 25. That was followed by volatile bearishness which lasted till the end of May. Bitcoin is now less volatile when compared to the last several days of May; plus price has been moving up gradually. The market is expected to go upwards in June, recovering the loss it suffered in May. The aforementioned high (top) of May could be reached or exceeded.   

The problem of trading in uncertain times crept up on the Mentor Program Alumni forum and I have been thinking about my answer. The original answer I gave is shown below –

I think one of the things you need to be able to do is to define what uncertainty is. If you opt for volatility as a proxy for uncertainty then you see something quite interesting. The VIX which is known as the fear index and should reflect uncertainty is actually at sitting somewhere near its long term average, indicating that the players who make up this index don’t actually see any uncertainty and are not asking for an increase in the risk premium they demand. The same is true if you look at the historic volatility in the Dow which is also sitting at a 9 year low. From my perspective is the issue is not uncertainty in markets but uncertainty in decision making that is brought about by listening to external sources. If you switched off the news and all the associated commentary and simply looked at markets what would they tell you?

What has caused me to think further about this overnight is the notion of what actually is the uncertainty that is being referred to. Is it a true physical uncertainty or a psychological perception brought on by exposure to the narratives of others? I had a look at Wikipedia for a more formal definition of uncertainty and it gave the following –

Uncertainty is a situation which involves imperfect and/or unknown information. However, “uncertainty is an unintelligible expression without a straightforward description”.[1] It arises in subtly different ways in a number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, and information science. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable and/or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance and/or indolence.

You will notice that the definition holds at its core the uncertainty inherent in predicting future events. In fact the science of probability is based around trying to deal with the fact that the universe is an uncertain place. However, uncertainty is the default setting in trading – the outcome of all trades is unknown until they are closed. It is this uncertainty that gives us the potential to be profitable, investments that have known or certain outcomes have no risk premium attached as such they offer little in the way of return (think bank deposit). This definition is therefore of little use in unpacking the notion of a change in traders uncertainty quotient. Granted we can respond to changes in volatility and we have tools to measure this but this is a reasonably common occurrence in trading and there are strategies that can be put in place to deal with this. In fact very basic position sizing and volatility based stops self-correct to deal with this sort of problem.

So I am drawn back to the idea that what actually changes is the tone and intensity of the narratives that people surround themselves with. This ever increasing crescendo of noise is bound to take an effect on peoples psyche particularity at present when the world appears to be spinning out of control. However, notice I used the expression appears, I used this term because appearances and reality are not the same thing. What brings some equilibrium back to the noise of others is as always context, the markets tell a completely different story. Whilst the breathless gibbering that is the media may consider the present to be the most troubled time in history and need to shout about it at every opportunity neither that markets nor history itself would agree.

This is the most salient point for traders with regards to what is considered uncertainty. Uncertainty is the environment within which we operate as a broad observation but beyond that it is actually the markets themselves that define what actually uncertainty is and they can do this by readily accessible metrics. When volatility and in turn risk premiums increase then we can say that uncertainty has increased. However, even here people try inject their own primitive narrative into events as the VIX which is a widely known measure of volatility is referred to as the fear index when it is nothing of the sort. However, this is the natural human desire for drama, we all have a friend or relative who is addicted to drama and those in the news media, particularly the financial arena and prime diva’s. So if you find yourself believing that uncertainty has increased but markets don’t agree then you will need to do something about what leaks into your brain.

 Author: Chris Tate

Article reproduced with kind permission of: Tradinggame.com.au


Traders’ Mindset: Advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html