May I ask how many BTCs were involved?  I'm trying the same thing but Mt Gox is limiting me to withdrawal of 100 BTCs a day.

Does Mt Gox have a BTC withdrawal limit?  (not USD, but BTC)

I think the low volatility will be resolved with a move to the downside.  I've been wrong before.

I have a lot of USD (in the six figures) sitting at Mt. Gox that I want to withdraw.  After setting up the bank wire information, I found out you can only withdraw $1000/day and $10000/month (I think; it wasn't exactly clear.  Decimals and commas in weird places).  WTF?  Apparently, I can wire six figures within a couple of days, but can't withdraw the same.  Not cool.

I also have a Bitstamp account, so theoretically, I could buy bitcoins at Gox, transfer them to Bitstamp, sell them, and then transfer the cash.  But an email to Bitstamp regarding max withdrawals did not get a response.

What's my strategy here?

Why don't people put all of their money in Treasury bills?  After all, they will be worth more next year than this year.  Why do people spend dollars at all?

Cults have strict rules about who speaks for the cult.  They're closed environments where the gospel can only be spread by a few wise men.  You and the OP sound more like cult members to me.

What does it matter if a few people didn't understand him?  (I understood him just fine; I thought the interviewer was terrible in the questions he asked, especially the initial one.)  Bitcoin will survive or not based on whether the technology works and beats the political forces that try to stop it, not whether Mark Karpeles has gift of gab. 

Seriously, some people here sound like scared schoolgirls every time someone does an interview they don't like. 

"Oh my god, whatever will people think!" 

Bitcoin is stronger than that. 

I don't know everything about Ripple, but I do have hints of understanding.

Ripple is highly distributed credit.  Credit has counter-party risk.  Credit requires trust.

Bitcoin is a commodity.  Bitcoin has no counter-party risk.  Bitcoin itself, as a protocol, requires not trust.

The two are complementary, not rivals.

Gold was always valued even when Bills of Exchange existed.

There will always be a wealth asset that's valued for its lack of counter-party risk.  There will also be be a need for easy ways to transfer those wealth assets via credit relationships.

The two are complementary, not rivals.

Lag at 400s and rising.

Fixed conversion rate means that the new coin would be defined as X amount of dollars.  As the Fed inflates the value of the dollar, so too would it inflate the value of the new coin.

What does "manipulation" even mean?

If I own 10,000 bitcoins and sell 5000 bitcoins at once in order to drop the price quickly in order to try to start a cascade downward, is that manipulation?

If I create  DDOS attacks in order to cause a panic, is that manipulation?

What else is manipulation?

Price discovery is occurring on the other exchanges.  I just logged on to Bitfloor.  It's humming along on heavy volume.  The order book is deeper than I've ever seen it.  The price there is $92.99.

When Gox re-opens, my guess is the price will drop to match the other exchanges.

Bitfloor turned over $2 million in volume today, yielding commissions of $6000. 

I do believe gold is in the late stages of a cyclical bear market (within a secular bull market).  I've put my long term money into physical gold at lower prices, and long term I'm very bullish.  I do think the late stages of this secular bull market in gold will look a lot like what we've just witnessed in Bitcoin.  

Sentiment is as low as it's ever been in gold by certain measures(1).  Anything can happen but I do believe we're much closer to the lows in gold than any high (which i think will eventually be 10,000-20,000).

I think stocks are a terrible place to be.  Despite what the media says, stocks are expensive by conservative measures.  They're also overbought.  This feels a lot like 2007 to me: it's nearly impossible to find a stock bear.

1. http://www.acting-man.com/?p=22540

More musings on mania, specifically, the aftermath.

The peak is characterized by a very sharp, quick selloff.  This is followed by an equally swift rebound that gets close to, but does not reach the prior peak.

The NASDAQ peaked at 5100 in March 2000.  Two weeks later, it was at 3400.  Keep in mind, this is a trillion+ dollar capitalization index.  That's a drop of 33% in two weeks!  (Keep in mind that a bear market in stocks is defined as a 20% drop.)  What a drop like this does is to introduce a small amount of doubt.  It "turns" a certain segment of believers into non-believers.  This is the smart money.  They begin to look for a chance to get out. 

Less than 3 months later, the NASDAQ was back up to 4300.  At this secondary, lower peak, the psychology has a particular flavor.  There is a certain fraction of people who will simply not go back in and buy.  As mentioned before, these are the smart money.  But the majority of previous believers still believe in the bull market.  They think to themselves, "Well, looks like we're off to the races again.  The prior peak was at 5100.  In another month, we'll be at new highs!"  Problem is, the market can't get to new highs because the smart money is gone.  That fraction needed to buy back in to get to the prior peak is no longer around to bid up the price.

The disappointment usually results in another batch of people who stop believing.  This is the smart-but-not-super-smart money.

Generally the market eventually settles to lower number at a lower volatility.    This is characterized by tremendous indecision.  Is the "New Economy" story still true?  Is the bull still on?  Usually the market decides the answer by going lower.  This is when the "middle batch" of market participants leave.

The last phase is the low volatility death-by-a-thousand cuts bear market.  The price drop in absolute number isn't that much, but it feels like a lot longer because it's drawn out over a much longer period of time.  It's absolutely demoralizing and winnows out nearly everyone who participated in the prior exponential rise.  Eventually we reach capitulation.  The NASDAQ bottomed at 1200 in late 2002.  This is when the smart money starts to nibble again. 

------------------------

Having said that, I'll make an assessment and some predictions.  I entered a market sell order when Mt Gox was at 220 but it didn't get filled till a hour and half later at 150.  So I'm totally out other than my Bitfloor debt.  This is only my opinion.  Diverging opinions make a market.  And anyone who thinks a forum post can affect a billion dollar market is naive.

Anyway, the conversation today feels a lot like that secondary peak.  I believe the very smart money has left.  Yet the majority is still optimistic, most expecting the prior trend to resume.

I think the price will converge to a low-mid 100s price over a few weeks.  Then we'll have 12-24 months of a slow burn, possibly down to a price of $25-$50.

Disclaimer: I'm probably wrong, and anyone who uses my thoughts to guide their trading deserves to lose all of their money.

One more thing:  I still think Bitcoin is awesome. I think it will eventually reach thousands of dollars in price.  I hope it changes the world and creates a better civilization.

It will end when them majority of the people who are currently optimistic (that's 95% of the posters on the speculation forum) become deeply pessimistic.  That will take a price much, much lower, and a lot of time.

1) There's no proof that these freezes do what they're designed to do.  What if you wanted to sell and couldn't because the market was frozen?  Wouldn't you get more panicky during those 30 minutes?

2) If you believe, like I do, that an important part of exchanges is price discovery, then shutting them down, however briefly, hinders that goal.

Last price at Bitfloor's $238.

Finally got a fill on my "market" order after 1 hr 20 min from Mt. Gox.

Can someone post on here when they get their sell confirmed on Mt.Gox?  1 hr+ for me right now.

I placed a market sell order about 45 minutes ago.  Still has "pending" status.