The thought has crossed my mind. I want to think the best in people, but it looks like the gap based on the initial cost of new hardware that can compete in the current system will likely start to grow even faster over the next few years. Likely the number of miners will decrease leaving more room for the people who have the money to continue to upgrade. Not that it’s a bad thing. I’m concerned though that the economy wont be able to sustain itself with less miners unless more vendors start using it. Which I know has been said a million times already. One would have to speculate that most people who buy BitCoins are speculating and most people who mine them are doing so to sell to the speculators. So the value of a BitCoin has a long way to go towards earning real legitimacy.
That is flawed logic. "Upgrades" are new capital. If it makes sense for existing miners to deploy new capital then it makes sense for new miners to do so also.
I think most of the caution comes from the fact that noobs tend to make horribly stupid rigs (gaming CPU, fast HDD, expensive cases, etc) and have lots of naive assumptions. At one point when margins were much higher, pretty much any two GPUs in a box could be profitable so mistakes were less painful. Today it is all about MH/$, MH/W and your electrical cost. The days of slamming together some random junk and breaking even in 3 months are gone and will never ever come back.
If you got a 6-12 month time horizon and cheap electricity (<$0.10 per kWh) new GPU rigs can still be viable but you likely need to be willing to build a large number of them be comfortable buying used GPU, and know what parts you are buying and why. Margins are very tight.
If you got a longer time horizon, access to significant capital, and willing to lose almost everything if Bitcoin fails then FPGA are another option.
If your goal is to casually throw some random parts together and make 20% profit per month well you shouldn't be mining.
Mining will never be a get rich quick system. It is a commodity based "business" with almost no barriers to entry and global access. Margins will be a small % over the lowest cost producers.