there are a few possibilities that stick out in my mind: 1. too much uncertainty in the markets. the market isn't sure if we're recovering or entering a depression, or somewhere in between. 2. deflation = prices down, but many believe the money supply inflation (printing) will outweigh the effects of deflation. 3. markets are not always efficient, meaning they can be very irrational. smith and keynes were big believers in the idea that irrational behavior has a significant impact on markets. even if the above theory is correct, it may take the market a while to realize it. enjoy the roller coaster ride.  Bitcoin has always been a roller coaster ride.  But from what I remember its price was never dependent on what was happening in the world of stock markets. that's arguable. bitcoin and stocks rose together in a decade-long bull market. they crashed together this year. ever since then, they have become correlated assets. it's not necessarily that bitcoin follows stocks. they are both viewed as risk assets, and investors are probably reacting to the same macro fundamentals. an economic crash and recession means institutions switching towards risk-off investments/cash and retail investors losing jobs, making them more likely to sell and less likely to invest. i don't think they'll keep moving together forever, but it might keep up for a while as long as there is so much economic uncertainty ahead. |
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only 4-max poker allowed! that really changes the game...  Does it have a large effect on the game? I'm not sure, but I know that there would be more possibilities of hands though. it has a huge effect. compare preflop ranges people play, for example: early position 9-max:  vs early position 6-max:  at 4-max, you can imagine it gets much looser and more aggressive than that even, due to the speed of the blinds hitting. no waiting around for monster hands, otherwise the blinds will eat you alive. you'll see much more 3-betting and 4-betting. bluffing and post-flop play become much more important in short-handed games because everyone is playing much weaker starting hands. |
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at the moment it doesn't matter if you collect 80 points cause you will gain the same benefits as the one who finishes on 9th place
the current structure is making people chasing some points just to qualify , while if it was better to finish in top 3 for example things would change and you probably will see players competing for top spot
this is what i meant earlier about a more top-heavy structure. if everyone is competing for the win, the problem solves itself. but it may create a new problem---paying only the top 3 might discourage lots of players who don't think they can consistently place. the smoother payouts provide incentives to widen the field. no easy answer there because strong players will lobby for top-heavy, more casual or marginal players will prefer smooth so it gives them a better shot. maybe the solution is somewhere in between. pay out the top 10, but skew points towards the top. i liked the original idea---that the championship was the final table of final tables. in a large field, a final table is meaningful and should be rewarded and the smooth structure is good for that. i think it worked okay in the first series even with just 25-30 players a game. at <20 a game, i can see it's not ideal though. the ideal solution is to get more players....... |
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folding AA, AK, and KK and playing rubbish instead? very interesting strategy. i sure hope you're at my table next week, especially if there is still a bounty on your head.  Actually this strategy isn't that bad as it might seem. Just yesterday I regretted my not folding pocket kings preflop, cos I was beaten by pocket aces in the end. An it wasn't the first time for such an outcome, I must add. Considering what happens to your mood after such a fail(and also that we all there for fun, right?), I'd rather be folding AA, AK, KK and such, and playing with some rubbish(and winning with it occasionally! ), cos this way of playing is much more entertaining. I have lost big with these combination (AA, AK, and KK ) numerous time. So having these hands always do not mean that you are going to win the hand. of course not! that's one of the biggest mistakes people make---not being able to fold monster starting hands on unfavorable boards. starting hands are only so important in holdem. odds wise, against any one random hand, these are the chance to win at showdown: AA = 85.204% KK = 82.396% AK suited = 67.045% still good chances and obviously worth preflop raising IMO, but 4 out of 5 and certainly 2 out of 3 is not winning every hand by any means. and that's against one other opponent which is why it's good to isolate one player rather than see family pots. it's easy to get selective memory about losing with big hands, but i find QQ-AA hold up ~80% of the time for me, but i play them pretty aggressively. |
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Oh damn drawing dead from the flop. Blockers to both of their monsters that sucks. Sorry i read this the other day and forgot to come back for a reply. I get why it was hard to get away from it but you were down to maybe 24% of hitting a pair... not knowing it wouldn't help. I dont imagine you play this spot often, but in the future if it doesn't go all-in pre it has to be a fold in the flop. I don't think there are enough people bluffing that spot to justify it. looking back, there was technically a backdoor flush draw---not a huge factor.  yeah, plugging in some reasonable ranges into pokerstove, i was destroyed on the flop. maybe 20% equity if i was lucky. i was in the mood to donk it off. i tend to overvalue holdings like AK preflop.....6-handed makes it even tougher to get away from. but considering the ridiculous sized shove for >1/2 my stack when i had 47bbs left, i think this is a spot where i could have (should have) just folded preflop. So about 3-4 years ago when i was still just loading up 30 dollars here and there and playing on 888 i found myself in a spot where i was second in chips and at the table with the chip leader. For whatever reason i figured it was a good time to bluff hard. I had nothing maybe like a 9 high. The river comes and he jams... i again have nothing and could have easily folded out and loomed like i had a clue.
No i called... you read right had nothing, bet 2 streets with nothing and then called his jam.
Iirc he has flopped a straight or flush, and i just gave him my chips and tournament life.
that reminds me of the poker boom days. such juicy games! |
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So, according to you, Bitcoin price should stagnate when the overall economic activity is slow? Aren't we seeing a different picture on the crypto markets today? Or is it because the economic activity isn't slow enough still, and the times described in the article are yet to come?
there are a few possibilities that stick out in my mind: 1. too much uncertainty in the markets. the market isn't sure if we're recovering or entering a depression, or somewhere in between. 2. deflation = prices down, but many believe the money supply inflation (printing) will outweigh the effects of deflation. 3. markets are not always efficient, meaning they can be very irrational. smith and keynes were big believers in the idea that irrational behavior has a significant impact on markets. even if the above theory is correct, it may take the market a while to realize it. enjoy the roller coaster ride. |
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What do guys think of late registration time? Isn't 55min a bit too much especially now when we have a lower number of participants. Could we make it 20-30min tops, if possible of course?
+1 on cutting it to 30 minutes.
+1 to this as well or probably make it 15-20 minutes , Im one of the player that got in late ( in fact very late , Sorry about this guys ). I really think we should get a 10 minute late reg for the game so this advantage cannot be used.
there seems to be a consensus forming pretty quickly about this. i know @Steamtyme was pushing for shorter late reg a few days ago too. there's already 2 players registered for next week, @morvillz7z and @CCwatcher420. if changing late registration is anything like changing starting stacks, they may need to unregister before SwC can change it. so, what'll it be? 15 minutes? 20 minutes? that still gives me a slight cushion in case i hit the snooze button at 10am. another way to prevent points angling would be a top-heavy points structure, but that seemed to be fairly contentious when suggested before, and plus we're already 2 games in. the ideal IMO is smooth points payout w/ large fields, but unfortunately it seems we're stuck at 2-3 tables tops. Efialtis went out on a big shocker. He raised preflop and was called. Board came something like 662 or something really low and a pair. I'm sure he can post the hand history. Flop was bet by efialtis and snap called by the villian. Efialtis has about 1600 chips left at this point. Turn came an 8 I believe. Efialtis bets 630 and again is snap called. Villain has K10 offsuit, river king lmao. Efialtis shoved all in and obviously is called and out.
I am not complaining about how the villian played the hand, I'm just saying what the heck was the guy doing in the hand with K10 after the flop? And how the heck am I not raping a player like that?
because he's sucking out. i guess there was some added incentive to stay in pots with @efialtis this time since there was a 3k chip bounty on his head? anybody remember who it was? |
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Yeah after my poor showing for all the Wednesday night action, I figured I need a lot more practice on this stuff!
I signed up for a couple more tournaments on the Thursday and actually went on in the first one, meaning it went overtime and I missed the 2nd one.
Sorry about that.
I stuck to my guns and folded AA, AK, and KK and kept some other rubbish.. not sure if its a solid plan moving forward, but was good to mix is up!
folding AA, AK, and KK and playing rubbish instead? very interesting strategy. i sure hope you're at my table next week, especially if there is still a bounty on your head. |
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The governments are overreacting and we shouldn't force people to stay at home if they feel healthy and want to take a risk. I have been taking a risk since day 1 and feel great.
it's possible these risk takers are infecting lots of other people, possibly as asymptomatic carriers. that's one of the theories behind the lockdowns anyway. even clinically "mild" (non hospitalized) cases can be quite severe. i had it and was sick for 3+ weeks, sickest i've ever been in my life. i also have some persisting lung damage which hopefully is not permanent. i don't blame people for being scared. a big majority of those surveyed are in favor of the lockdowns. I read that it's much less lethal than SARS and I haven't seen a panic this big during the SARS epidemic.
unlike COVID-19, SARS never actually became a pandemic. only ~8k people ever got it when the outbreak happened in 2003. since this is a widespread pandemic, the major issue is that healthcare systems can be easily overwhelmed due to the length/severity of the disease. |
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Something was wrong with the table today. Most of us were going disconnected and it was hard to continue. yeah i noticed a few people kept timing out. good old SwC.  Impressive TiktokLyfe still is going strong. 7.7k chips. At some stage he had less than 500 chips!
he should thank me. he shoved into my BB and it was like 300 chips to call. i called with 34o, because why not. it was all up from there. "a chip and a chair" as they say. he just took down #2. as for me..... another final table, another disappointment. i'm feeling especially trolled because @Murat was sitting out with 4bbs left and to be knocked out very soon. but i thought fuck it, i'm going for the win, not 5th place. 5-handed facing a blind steal from the SB? of course i'm re-shoving in his face with JJ! unfortunately he did have a hand, and i'm losing a lot of these 60-40 spots recently. owned:  that's poker for ya! 11 points in the first 2 games---it could be worse. but still no ITM.  GG's all! Tonight was a fun tourny  +1. see everyone next week! congrats on the win, 1r0n1c. this is who ended up cashing:  |
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What do guys think of late registration time? Isn't 55min a bit too much especially now when we have a lower number of participants. Could we make it 20-30min tops, if possible of course?
I see that next week's games have 5k starting chips, at last...should be fun, have some more early action.
that's what i'm hoping for. i did notice a couple people joined at the very end of late registration today. with bigger starting stacks, i think we should limit it, otherwise it starts becoming kinda EV+ to join late. +1 on cutting it to 30 minutes. |
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Facemask is not ideal because the cameras won't be able to identify the people, and it might cause some ruckus on the casino floor or something. indoor spaces with lots of people, drinking.......and no face masks? i'd put casinos in the same league as bars in that way (although better air circulation) which under most plans (like nevada) won't reopen until the later stages. when they do reopen, it will be at severely limited capacity. https://www.newsweek.com/las-vegas-nevada-reopening-restaurants-drive-ins-guidelines-casinos-1502904Casinos will not be included in phase one of Las Vegas reopening, but some resorts are hoping to open by Memorial Day, May 25. Once casinos reopen, they will have to follow strict social distancing guidelines, which were issued by the Nevada Gaming Commission last week.
The guidelines include occupancies reduced to 50 percent, three players at each blackjack table, six players at each craps table, four players at each roulette table, and four players at each poker table. Casinos will also have to disinfect cards and dice. only 4-max poker allowed! that really changes the game... |
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Trump himself and the people around him get tested every day now. It's good to discover the virus early, but since there is no real treatment yet and Trump still refuses to wear a mask, he is always in danger to catch that virus and he is among the vulnerable persons just by his age.
Just recently Pence visited a hospital, without wearing a mask: it's really quite amazing, especially considering how inaccurate current testing is. this is trump yesterday, not a single mask in the room:  i get that they are trying to give off a perception of normality, but indeed it seems like really rash behavior. where do you see the odds going if trump tests positive for the the coronavirus? |
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only 16 registered today? quarantine relaxing and spring weather, i guess. My friend tyKiwanuka just notified me that it's my 1 year bitcointalk anniversary!  What better way to "celebrate" this than a bounty on my head in tonight's tournament?! Whoever manages to knock me out - and that will be very hard of course - will receive a 3k chips reward in his SwC account! i'm coming for ya, efi! I opened a bottle of wine, wife and kids are taken care of, dog is fed, dishes clean... I am ready for the game, what about you?! joint rolled, coffee brewed. got a few ice cold beers in the fridge for the final table..... |
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In my opinion, the guy with two queens on hand and when thea flop is shown, that person is now risking his chips that he might have flush and he did since the flop have 3 diamonds card already plus his Q of diamond which all he need is one more diamond card and he'll get flash of diamonds.
He already has 4 diamonds so why not wait for the other card after all he had already bet so much. *** FLOP *** [td 5d 9h] there were only 2 diamonds on the flop. the only options are to 1. call all-in on the flop or 2. fold. i only had a 12.5% chance of hitting the back door diamond flush. that isn't the value i'm calling based on either since i know Ad and Kd are in his range. anyway, we should move on to some other hands. rehashing the hand myself (and considering @Steamtyme's take) i think the call was acceptable. good chance to double up, just unfortunate to run into a bigger monster starting hand. |
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congrats on the win Iv4n, and well played Betwrong! That lucky SyGambler taking 3 points even without playing! Criminal!
lol, pretty unbelievable. there was one hand where i folded TT preflop because JTisCuban shoved, a big stack called, and SyGambler still had a couple hundred chips left. so there was a strong chance of a 2-point jump if i folded. flop ended up being Txx and they showed AK vs AQ, would have tripled up at a crucial time. damn ICM considerations! See you tomorrow! I hope there will be more people than today! i'm a little disappointed with the 18-player turnout. OTOH it's great value considering the money/prizes added to the championship prize pool. i know CoinEraser and big_daddy said they couldn't make it today and would probably be there tomorrow. it's still a wide open series. lots of value still there for the taking...... |
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sigh, managed to bubble again. i was super card dead at the end. Pitkins and i were both short stacked, folded around to me w/ K9, couldn't fold it with 6bbs left. Iv4n called me with JT and managed to hit the flop. good game:  at least i'll walk away with 6 points towards the championship..... |
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Do you think the btc halving has already been priced in at near 10k?
What year are we in that 4 year cycle?
if the 4 year cycle is real (and i'm not convinced it is) then 2020 = 2016. 2013 and 2017 were bubble years, which suggests that 2021 is the next one. there are two alternate possibilities to consider though. 1. the pattern is becoming too obvious so the next bubble will happen sooner (2020) 2. the 4 year cycle is a bunch of BS there are probably still people buying based on the halving, and also people selling because they expect a post-halving dump, so i wouldn't call it priced in yet. |
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...not having any history on villain, i dunno if i should assume that range. plenty of players like to 3bet more aggressively than that...
I agree with you and exactly because there were no readings on Villian you should assume that he is playing correctly this hand, of course, after few hands you can adjust that. you assume everyone always has the nuts just because you don't have a read on their playing style? This is not that I think in such situation about each player that he is a tight-aggressive reg, of course not, but with no readings at all, it is better to stick to your own poker play and ranges because it is easy to predict what he could have. i did stick to my own ranges: QQ is a premium hand and it was a favorable flop. in my experience, AA was just one of many possibilities---most of which QQ beats. even against your super strong preflop TAG range (AA, KK, AK, AQ) QQ is a favorite to win against 50% of hands on that flop. so why would you put in 30% of your stack preflop, then fold? why call preflop at all---just for the 12% chance at set mining? Is this a tight or loose-aggressive player or maybe a calling station, fish, maniac, reg? with only a few hands played together, it's impossible to know, so you have to assume he could be any of those player types. right? it seems EV- to assume he is super tight and has AA/KK 100% of the time. |
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just woke up and sat down at the tables. good luck everyone! we've got 17 runners at the start of the first game. there's still 50 minutes of late registration left---plenty of time left to join! Note: Future weekends will have 5k starting stacks instead of 3k - SwC updated the tournaments but couldn't do so for this week's tournaments due to ppl having already registered.
understood. oh well, next week! |
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