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at this point we are probably wiping out anyone who bought on margin...
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In case you missed it, during the action last night, two parties built up a very sizable options position during the move. Someone bought ~33,000 calls between $17-20 strike. Someone else sold short 27,000 puts between $33-35 strike. Chatlog : http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/marketplace-excitement-with-expert-commentary-for-your-vicarious-trading-pleasure/The puts alone would require a deposit of at least 60,000 BTC in the seller's MPEx account. Could this person also be preparing to push the exchange rate upward? All of these options expire TONIGHT. So the rate needs to be moving NOW. Can you explain the significance of this to (like I am five)? the person who bought the calls can exercise a right to buy BTC at the strike price (17-20). So the buyer thinks that the price will be above this price (and obviously the seller does not). But it is not quite even in sentiment because a seller generally walks away happy -- he gets to sell the BTC at what is presumably a profit AND gets the price of the option (read abt covered call investment strategies). The buyer of a put has the right to sell BTC at the strike price (33-35). So some seller is VERY bullish. Except I don't understand the terminology "sell short a put"... I suppose that might mean the seller does not have the USD in his account to cover -- he only has BTC (or some other security). |
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Wonder how many non-believers panic and sold when we dipped down to $17.10 or so  I use the term "non-believers" in jest.We have some real veterans *cough* trading with only one indicator so I expect a lot of depression around here. Many ppl will discover that day trading is not so easy after all, and just by sitting on coins you can have better profits.  exactly. i advanced a thesis well over a year and a half ago that most of the early adopter day traders around here will have gotten shaken out of the biggest moves to come. this has come true. look at all the frequent posters of even a month ago that have gone missing. and all the legions before them. You had a theory. You did not advance a thesis*. Its best to consider trading a form of diversification. That is, it can pull in some profits when the market has no direction (and more importantly just keep you watching the developing situation), but keep a wad in cold storage for the big up days |
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When governments and citizens stop trusting each other's fiat currencies (aka the US dollar) what will be used for international transfers that are too small to justify a chartered plane filled with gold?
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>>> btcstats.volumeBetween(db,1*btcstats.Hours,0)
2013-01-22 20:36:41 to 2013-01-22 21:36:41: Avg price: 17.286 (17.208 to 17.400) Total volume: 2271.76879, Cumulative cost: 39329.00000 Buy volume: 1397.27509 (24241.07 USD), Sell volume: 874.49370 (15088.68 USD) Ratio: 1.59781 ( 1.61)
there may be some life in the bulls yet. Last week we saw a bit of a plateau and now look where we are!
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Thsi is nuts, everybody nuts here. The sell off will be epic.
I think anything will be less spectacular than the bulls-turned-bears are expecting. I like to think that the dumpers blew their wad in the $13s and that BTCers learned from 2011 and 2012 and have become more careful of crashes. Ja but we are 33% up this month already. May the corrections come at 20$ but it will come, probably hard. I consider rebuying now, to catch the real high, but thats all crazy. Can you spot the differenz?   There is more to risk, more profit, more to cry, bitches. Look at that volume. This market has a lot of conviction |
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1BqcwhKevdBKeos72b8E32Swjrp4iDVnjP
Nice..... can you tell us at what price you got these? around $10 come on guys... load up blockchain.info look at when the address was filled and look at the the mtgox price at that time. Takes 2 minutes I only moved them to that address fairly recently for long term storage. Sure its not certain. The price was around 12 when you moved them... so its not that bad of an estimate, esp. just to satisfy idle curiosity. |
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1BqcwhKevdBKeos72b8E32Swjrp4iDVnjP
Nice..... can you tell us at what price you got these? around $10 come on guys... load up blockchain.info look at when the address was filled and look at the the mtgox price at that time. Takes 2 minutes |
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casascius you are right that part of what makes Bitcoin so powerful is that it completely avoids the concept of backing. And without backing there is no ability to engage in "fractional reserve banking" (aka stealing the backing). But this is also one of its greatest weaknesses. The ability to have a secure internet representation of some real-world thing would be extremely valuable. For example, today there is a lot of friction moving USD (or other currencies) into and out of (or between) the exchanges. If there were colored coins representing USD and these were accepted by the exchanges this friction would be 0. But beyond BTC/USD, friction in lots of markets -- commodities for example would be reduced.
I'm not sure the technical details behind e-gold, but it seems to me like what we would have (with colored coins) would be much stronger since AFAIK bitcoin is the first p2p implementation (i.e. I'm assuming e-gold was not p2p). So the repository does not need to oversee every exchange. It simply sells colored coins for USD and redeems them but does no exchanging. But is this legal or would it be considered to be counterfeiting? It is essentially creating and printing a virtual USD unless you keep a big wad of printed bills in your safe. Negotiating that issue would be very tricky, for a non-government agency.
Unfortunately for colored coins, those who are willing to take that risk are generally not those who can be trusted with a big vault of backing value...
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Its behaving as I expected. The blockchain halving event won't put significant pressure on the price for for some time -- there are just too few coins involved relative to the daily txn size on Mt Gox. However if we assume that the # of coins being sequestered (i.e. taken off the exchange either for long term investment or private exchange use) remains roughly the same then there will clearly be a slight shift to the demand side. But this shift is easily met by speculators taking profits since the price remains pretty good. The result is that a week to a few months from now you end up with a LOT of speculative fiat on the exchanges and so some good news will trigger a cascade of momentum buying :-). The longer the price hangs around at this level (or slowly rises) the bigger the final pop.
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LOL cypher V smoothie PVP action in the gold thread... where's the popcorn!!!  |
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This is a synthesis of the last 4 hours of bid/ask depth summed at 5 and 10 (bid) and 15 and 20 (ask).
You can see a few interesting things here. Notably, the amount of bid BTC above 5 on the bid side has decreased, but the USD it represents has remained essentially the same. So bidders are creeping up. You can see the same effect at the "above 10" numbers. In this case, both the USD and the BTC it can buy is creeping up. One interpretation is that bottom feeders are moving their bids into a more likely purchase zone.
On the sell side, you can see that 15 is eroding and at the same time sell side pressure at a higher point is NOT materializing (yet). So sellers generally are not moving their asks up and at the same time new sellers seem to be sitting on the sidelines, probably to see what happens after 15.
>>> btcstats.positionSummary(db,4*btcstats.Hours,0,[5,10],[15,20])
2013-01-17 06:57:26.873053:
2084 bids of 193231 btc (1931034.00) above 5. 1467 bids of 96715 btc (1238667.00) above 10.
52 asks of 9542 btc (142486.00) below 15. 509 asks of 38370 btc (632401.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 07:12:26.954714:
2085 bids of 193131 btc (1929984.00) above 5. 1468 bids of 96642 btc (1237782.00) above 10.
50 asks of 9762 btc (145763.00) below 15. 508 asks of 38710 btc (637524.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 07:27:27.002699:
2088 bids of 187658 btc (1924709.00) above 5. 1470 bids of 98911 btc (1271873.00) above 10.
45 asks of 8752 btc (130785.00) below 15. 509 asks of 38062 btc (628097.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 07:42:26.375522:
2092 bids of 188284 btc (1936783.00) above 5. 1474 bids of 100107 btc (1288469.00) above 10.
44 asks of 8444 btc (126188.00) below 15. 508 asks of 37702 btc (622714.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 07:57:27.443380:
2084 bids of 187961 btc (1932765.00) above 5. 1466 bids of 99783 btc (1284451.00) above 10.
45 asks of 8688 btc (129811.00) below 15. 502 asks of 37570 btc (620536.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 08:12:27.073623:
2094 bids of 188365 btc (1937933.00) above 5. 1476 bids of 100187 btc (1289619.00) above 10.
45 asks of 8636 btc (129036.00) below 15. 505 asks of 37647 btc (621878.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 08:27:27.086351:
2095 bids of 189981 btc (1960531.00) above 5. 1477 bids of 101804 btc (1312217.00) above 10.
45 asks of 8436 btc (126051.00) below 15. 504 asks of 37422 btc (618447.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 08:42:27.567050:
2090 bids of 189418 btc (1952148.00) above 5. 1472 bids of 101240 btc (1303834.00) above 10.
44 asks of 8397 btc (125470.00) below 15. 501 asks of 37338 btc (617207.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 08:57:26.835357:
2092 bids of 187209 btc (1917868.00) above 5. 1474 bids of 98663 btc (1267410.00) above 10.
23 asks of 7286 btc (109093.00) below 15. 482 asks of 36265 btc (601504.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 09:12:26.817323:
2076 bids of 189261 btc (1947945.00) above 5. 1458 bids of 100710 btc (1297430.00) above 10.
20 asks of 6806 btc (101949.00) below 15. 477 asks of 35642 btc (592132.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 09:27:26.870106:
2072 bids of 189968 btc (1957364.00) above 5. 1454 bids of 101409 btc (1306761.00) above 10.
16 asks of 6692 btc (100273.00) below 15. 481 asks of 36224 btc (601310.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 09:42:26.043668:
2050 bids of 188625 btc (1947960.00) above 5. 1450 bids of 101464 btc (1308167.00) above 10.
13 asks of 6140 btc (92030.00) below 15. 478 asks of 35464 btc (589578.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 09:57:27.253930:
2050 bids of 189282 btc (1957725.00) above 5. 1450 bids of 102121 btc (1317932.00) above 10.
13 asks of 5240 btc (78539.00) below 15. 476 asks of 34727 btc (578669.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 10:12:26.790411:
2039 bids of 188618 btc (1946884.00) above 5. 1439 bids of 101458 btc (1307091.00) above 10.
15 asks of 5606 btc (83964.00) below 15. 484 asks of 34872 btc (580646.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 10:27:27.189975:
2050 bids of 188617 btc (1946530.00) above 5. 1450 bids of 101455 btc (1306729.00) above 10.
13 asks of 5054 btc (75735.00) below 15. 478 asks of 34755 btc (579656.00) below 20.
2013-01-17 10:42:27.088649:
2048 bids of 186804 btc (1920944.00) above 5. 1448 bids of 99643 btc (1281143.00) above 10.
14 asks of 5055 btc (75765.00) below 15. 477 asks of 35332 btc (590057.00) below 20.
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you drive forward as fast as possible, line up a wave and pull the "trigger" by diving the kite backwards. You have about 1 and a half seconds to regret your decision (as the kite moves from in front to behind you) and then the it rips you up into the air like you are God's own angry bird. And the wind decides how high and when to put you back down... It feels like when clark moody starts going green showing gox executing a big buy... no idea how high we're going |
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Maybe it means you no longer have to be an enthusiast to use bitcoins. Probably a combination of that and bigger investors entering the picture.
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I'm trying to chase down an issue in the mt gox streaming API (or my code) where I see double transactions. These seem to happen during big buys or dumps but not during normal processing. Anyone else seen this?
To debug this, I threw in some code that eliminates trades with the same 'tid'. However, I started seeing repeated transactions across different currencies like this:
{'origin': 'broadcast', 'trade': {'price_currency': 'USD', 'trade_type': 'bid', 'price_int': '1424999', 'price': 14.24999, 'primary': 'N', 'item': 'BTC', 'amount': 29.0911, 'tid': '1358271672595895', 'amount_int': '2909110000', 'date': 1358271672.0, 'type': 'trade', 'properties': 'market,mixed_currency'}, 'private': 'trade', 'channel': 'dbf1dee9-4f2e-4a08-8cb7-748919a71b21', 'op': 'private'}
{'origin': 'broadcast', 'trade': {'price_currency': 'EUR', 'trade_type': 'bid', 'price_int': '1094838', 'price': 10.94838, 'primary': 'Y', 'item': 'BTC', 'amount': 29.0911, 'tid': '1358271672595895', 'amount_int': '2909110000', 'date': 1358271672.0, 'type': 'trade', 'properties': 'market,mixed_currency'}, 'private': 'trade', 'channel': 'dbf1dee9-4f2e-4a08-8cb7-748919a71b21', 'op': 'private'}
Are these both valid (as the same trade) and indicative of some kind of automatic currency translation that Mt. Gox is doing?
Thanks!
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You are not alone! I have something on the radar, too!
nice one! would a "market maker" help? -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_makeri don't know what it would do, but just the name sounds nice. sending them coins or fiat, and they stimulate the trading in an orderly fashion instead of having everyone to wait. or is bitinstant already a market maker and i'm talking nonsense? A market maker is like a shock absorber in the market. They will put a bid wall in at 14.05 (say) and ask at 14.30. This means a big sell or a big buy would get absorbed by the maker, who then "rebalances" his account by doing repeated small market sell/buy orders at around 14.15-14.20. So market liquidity is increased... |
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maybe grab a pre-existing P2P library and layer your app on top? If there isn't one ready-made somewhere, you could isolate the one in bitcoin from the blockchain. That would probably be valuable for many apps...
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i think it takes Bitcoin to a whole, new secure level that could put it over the top and make it close to impossible to be attacked even by a gov't.
don't get me wrong, I'm excited about ASIC, too. I just can't stand all the delivery-date pushing and harsh words in these threads. In defense of the ASIC guys, these chips are REALLY hard to design. I spent some time once writing driver software for a telecom switch ASIC and the thing was so flaky I'd have to initialize the registers in particular sequences with particular timings and even then if the thing went out to lunch I had code to automatically reset it and try again. Because once the silicon is there, that's what you've got. Better make it work or tell your investors $100M just became 0. These Bitcoin ASIC efforts have been rushed and they did not spend enough time in verification or FPGA simulation. So I'd give them the benefit of the doubt that they are not a Pirate scam until I don't see 10000 dead chips. The stupid thing was to accept pre-orders as if making ASICs are as easy as stamping Christmas cookies. They should have done a kickstarter or essentially sold stock. And designing the PCBs to run these high bandwidth high clock rate devices is not like cranking out an open source hardware arduino clone... |
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