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10261  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Mtgox Paxum transfers not coming through on: December 02, 2011, 05:17:57 AM
Mtgox has publicly stated that Paxum withdrawals are suspended due to the AML investigation in Europe.  Though I am very critical of mtgox, their explanation makes sense and I can't really fault them for the lack of Paxum withdrawals.

Really?  You think it is A-OK for Mt. Gox to allow their customers to request withdraw via Paxum knowing that they can not honor the request, will not be able to retract the request, and not say a word about it to the customers as a heads-up?  The only way I could not consider that deeply wrong is if they were directed under penalty of law to run their business in this manner.

10262  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: About Bitcoin's future on: December 01, 2011, 11:48:44 PM
...
It also occurs to me that the Satoshi peer-to-peer block chain may be the real innovation of all of this.   I don't think we've even begun to explore the possible applications.  For instance (free startup idea Smiley) you could use a similar data-structure to implement a twitter-like global messaging system (blocks contain messages instead of transactions). You'd have a permanent record of everything that was said preserved for all posterity forever, and it would be super-searchable, in accurate chronological order, etc.  A very cool idea.
...

I've always considered any USD I put into Bitcoin to be, at the core, representation in the 'satoshi blockchain' and having the potential to be a thing of value under a variety of scenarios.  I've not really derived any compelling argument that this chain would be chosen as the basis for one effort or another other than that it is the first and has a big head start on work put into it, but it has been a relatively cheap bet considering how much of the value, as a percentage, is available.

10263  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Mt Gox Soon . . . on: December 01, 2011, 06:47:41 PM
To be fair, I saw this scroll by on IRC today:

(Most useless messages removed)
Quote
[10:49] <@MagicalTux> right now we cannot wire to Paxum because of the investigations on money laundering
[10:51] <Ukto> paxum fail?
[10:51] <deego> MagicalTux: So, that's why my three withdrawal requests are pending for 3 weeks?  Couldn't that have been communicated to us 2 weeks ago so we could cancel our requests?
[10:51] <mindphlux> Why do other exchanges have not the same kind of liquidity problems on paxum?
[10:51] <deego> Anyhow, cancel requests don't work with mtgox any more either.
[10:52] <Ukto> hmm, part of the reason I don't like these 3rd party processors
[10:56] <@MagicalTux> mindphlux: other exchanges are not dealing with the same volumes we are
[10:56] <mindphlux> ok
[10:56] <@MagicalTux> once they get a bit bigger they'll hit the same compliance issues we do
[10:56] <mindphlux> So, honest question, why don't you remove paxum then if it's only providing problems
[10:56] <@MagicalTux> we should be able to send funds to paxum again once the investigation clears us

It seems quite notable to me that there is an investigation which requires Mt. Gox to allow their customers to continue to request withdrawls via Paxum, then completely lock up any money requested in that manner.  For weeks.

I have to assume that the investigation requires this because it seems like exceedingly poor business practices if it is a voluntary mode of operation on Mt. Gox's part. Obviously it is impossibly to tell very much by reading people's posts on this forum, but some of those who have complaints really don't strike me as hard-core financial criminals.

10264  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: December 01, 2011, 08:33:14 AM
What is it if you quadrupled your money in 2 weeks...

Usually 'being full of shit.'

and ended up being liquidated out of stubbornness?   

Wiser than before.

10265  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: bitcoinity.org/markets - live mtgox & tradehill charts on: December 01, 2011, 08:16:44 AM
comboy (in his typical honest way) says to use something else for a while until he gets around to fixing things.  He does not suggest what, and I'll be damned if I can find anything which is 10% as useful Sad
http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/

I'd not used clarkmoody.com before.  It's quite nice, and there is a lot to like about the effortless scrolling.

I really like bitcoinity.org since I do most of my stuff on Tradehill, and am interested in the relationship between Mt. Gox and Tradhill, and the depth charts of both.  Also, I guess, I'm just used to it.

comboy:  More beer fund when you get the thing back up.

10266  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoinica System Status on: December 01, 2011, 04:47:29 AM
We're really proud of our robust technologies that make your trading experience wonderful. Here we showcase how much traffic our servers are handling right now and how responsive our services are.

https://www.bitcoinica.com/pages/status

Currently we have handling almost 10,000 requests per minute and average response time is around 10ms. Pretty impressive, huh?

You really have not given enough info to judge how impressive things are to be frank.  200qps is actually not gigantically impressive in a lot of situations, and 10ms measured at the front of your app seems ho-hum to me, particularly if you are making good use of redis.

The challenge is going to be providing service close to the edge (how well you do replication if you choose to attempt it), and how seemlessly you can handle failover events and whatever other speed bumps the real world will drop in front of you.

Lest you get me wrong, I am impressed with what I can see of your work (which exceeds my own skill level by orders of magnitude) and with what I understand of how it was accomplished, but I suspect that a lot of challenges lay in front of you.

10267  Economy / Marketplace / Re: This is why Bitcoinica users must wait in line for withdrawals on: December 01, 2011, 12:53:01 AM
By the way, if anyone has what it takes to build a killer exchange, email me at ryan@xwaylab.com.

I'll invest with capital, code and business straightaway.

The exchange guys don't know how to talk to people. The landscape is broken. A fix is needed.

Well placed or not, Mr. Zhou Tong has built up some credibility in my mind.  A compelling offering to me would be Bitcoin related services with said individual as a principal, and operating in an environment which is outside of the immediate influence of Western financial institutions (and the enforcement organs which they control.)  I personally don't happen to be doing anything which is illegal (as currently defined.)  It's mostly that I don't trust the stability of any of our current monetary systems and am concerned that they will act in desperate and stupid ways.  This could happen in any area, but as a Westerner, I simply wish to to be more diversified.

10268  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many of you have been Zhoutonged? on: December 01, 2011, 12:17:47 AM

If getting 'zhoutonged' means getting reamed using Bitcoinica, what would be a good word for doubling one's money on the same platform?

10269  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: November 30, 2011, 09:37:25 PM
What are PMs again?

Precious Metals
10270  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!! on: November 30, 2011, 09:32:31 PM
3.0 has been hit

I was mortified when Bitcoin fell below $3.00.  Now I cannot help but feel somewhat elated when it touches $3.00 from the low side?!?  Pathetic really.

I'm keeping my feet on the ground and have even more powder dry than ever for sub-$2.00 if we get there.  If not, I'll probably use the USD funds to do actual real-time purchases if someone someday offers something I want in Bitcoin, and does so in such a way that I can be assured that I won't get screwed (either via overpricing or failure to deliver.)

Alternately, my exchange will use the USD funds for hookers and blow or whatever they are into.  I hope not, but I never let anyone hold more or my USD than I can afford to lose.

10271  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? on: November 30, 2011, 09:08:45 PM
wow.  the Dow is goiing vertical.  will it hit +500?

Looks like a nice little pop in PMs also.  It's almost like (some) people are seeking alternatives to fiat currency or something.  I've had another bout of doing so just recently.  Split between PMs and Bitcoin (with the bulk going toward the former of course.)  I decided, as always, to avoid paper assets given how the digital numbers in accounts are so easily appropriated these days (ref, MF Global.)

10272  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!! on: November 30, 2011, 08:19:45 PM
Anyone else notice Dwolla's tweet about tomorrow being their anniversary? Think it's a coincidence that Mt. Gox is planning some big announcement tomorrow, as well?

Dwolla screwed Tradehill big-time and has yet to provide any explanation (from what I can glean from Kenna's comment.)  Most exchanges were obliged to drop them, but not Mt. Gox.

A _very_ healthy percentage of Dwolla's business was/is related to Bitcoin, and Mt. Gox has a huge share of the Bitcoin exchange business.

People who don't seem like they are the types who should be having such issues seem to be having one hell of a time getting money from Mt. Gox via Paxum.

Hmmm...would not surprise me if you are on to something edd.

10273  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the price slowly climbing? on: November 30, 2011, 06:07:44 PM
Look at all the ask volume filling right back in.

Similarly on the other side - I've been watching the bid-ghostlines re-solidifying.  I guess both buyers and sellers are happily trickling in their hidden liquidity.
Who will run out first?

Buyers, if the cannot get their fricken' funds into the exchanges :/

Oh how I long for the days when I can instantly transfer whatever part of my net worth I like to whoever I like, and need only to worry about how to ensure that I am unlikely to get ripped off.

10274  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: bitcoinity.org/markets - live mtgox & tradehill charts on: November 30, 2011, 09:09:14 AM
comboy (in his typical honest way) says to use something else for a while until he gets around to fixing things.  He does not suggest what, and I'll be damned if I can find anything which is 10% as useful Sad

10275  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: good way to measure total Bitcoin users? on: November 30, 2011, 05:33:01 AM

(Like the previous respondent...) I glean some (disappointing) info from this site, but obviously cannot vouch for it.  I would assume that it is pretty accurate when it is working:

  http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/

I would think that as a professional courtesy, the operators of some of the more successful on-line wallet like services (instawallet comes to mind) could give you some rough numbers on their stats.  Between the two, I imagine that actual use numbers could be relatively close to reality.

I don't know about other folk, but I have a small amount of coins in a few places (including instalwallet), but do most of my real work from a bitcoind running on my own hardware.  You run the risk of double-counting I would guess.


10276  Economy / Speculation / Re: Manipulator is back on: November 30, 2011, 05:05:26 AM
Not a glitch, someone genuinely has over $36Billion USD on deposit with mtgox and they're about to make you rich Wink

(coz that's just the kind of fantasy that flies around here!)


Maybe Mt. Gox was just testing their systems to make sure that things will be working with the kinds of numbers that will probably be the norm in 2012.  It's prudent to be pro-active with these kinds of things.

10277  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who was right and who was wrong? on: November 29, 2011, 07:44:20 PM
While you're searching for past statements, you should find the one I made about 5 days ago where I told everyone that 2.7+ was coming, and to reduce their positions at bitcoinica and/or cover.

Smiley

A bullseye is more impressive when there are not also a lot of darts stuck in the floor and the ceiling.  And warning of 2.7-ish after the hard-core short reamage at 2.5-is was hardly a bullseye either.

I actually doubt that there is a monolithic manipulator, but rather several people with some money and a sense of humor.  Whoever did the 2.5 one probably did a massive favor for a majority of the Bitcoinica shorts I would bet.

10278  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who was right and who was wrong? on: November 29, 2011, 07:37:36 PM
You've clearly got an enviable string of dead-on calls, Mr. Da-Man.

I personally hope that you are wrong at least once in your 'resume it's long slow decline' projection.  But, as always, it would be foolhardy to not take all potential eventualities into consideration.

10279  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!! on: November 29, 2011, 07:19:29 PM
Bitcoin probably will have completely run its course by 2013. There's absolutely no reason to believe this is a reversal.

Hi Proudhon, I've seen the question asked before, but I don't recall your reply. Why do you hang out on these threads? Are you short and hoping to reinforce your predictions? Do I understand correctly that you believe bitcoin will completely die in the near future? Are you trying to save those who will listen (though someone always has to hold the bag)? Are you looking forward to some big "I told you so" party? I'm sincerely curious what motivates you.

My guess is that a lot of these folks want to buy in at a good price or buy some mining gear on the cheap.  I cannot resist throwing out seeds of doubt in such hopes although I really do have some concerns about Bitcoin's viability in the sub $2.00 range so I tend to resist that temptation these days.

Other people probably got stuck sitting on a zillion scam-coins and hope somehow that their plight will improve if Bitcoin fails.  Or they hope that they could ride some of those trains if the pesky old grand-daddy were out of the picture.

Other people probably do have legitimate technical, fundamental, or political reasons for believing that Bitcoin should be bearish (or die).

It sort of does not pass the smell test that people would spend vast amounts of time and energy trying to manipulate opinion for no reason at all even if unemployment is fairly high these days.

10280  Economy / Speculation / Re: 70k bidwall at $2.65 on: November 29, 2011, 03:23:03 AM
Forced liquidation @ 2.9528948006222637

 Embarrassed

Harshest of tokes, Dude Sad

I was sure I tried to warn somebody of such a thing a few days ago.  Oh, here it is:

"...but were I in your situation, I would be significantly concerned about someone with actual money playing around in the market for shits and giggles.  The entire Bitcoin economy is tiny.  Even if you were well protected with stop loss (vs. being crouched over your keyboard) you may still end up wiped out since orders do not get filled at predictable (or desirable) prices in a run."

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=52926.msg631552#msg631552

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