Week 6: 13,965.4902 + 977.584314 (interest) = 14,943.074514 That's almost a 50% return on investment already after just 6 weeks. Where do I sign up?
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The previous thread seems to have become stuck. I can't post to it any more. Just as it was getting interesting too. DOH! was accusing the site's owner of failing to pay out and deleting his account. And before the owner had a chance to reply and clear his name all the 'reply' buttons disappeared from the thread. Something needs to be done about this immediately!
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If you worked out the 25%, 50% and 75% quantiles for the amounts bet, you'd have 3 lines representing equal number of four equal groups of amounts bet. Might provide some insight, might not be worth it if it's a hassle.
Sounds interesting, but confused. If I understand you, I'd have lines for (0-25%, 25-50%, 50-75%, 75-100%, and total) - that's 5 lines. Is that what you mean?
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rates will be dropping a nominal 1%/month
You mean dropping to 1%/month, right? Otherwise in a few of months the rate would be negative!
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made some chump change back from the house (without cheating might I add wasn't aware there was a bug)
As I understand the bug, it affected everyone. You didn't need to do anything to "exploit" it, except play normally. It sounds as if the site was programmed not to charge you anything for doubling down or for splitting. I don't see how the site could have been up so long before anyone noticed this; maybe free doubling and splitting was only introduced recently due to a bad code change.
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It looks like your client was cleverly using a transaction it was making anyway as a free opportunity to consolidate a bunch of small inputs it had lying around into a single, larger output, thus reducing the cost of your future transactions. It also looks like your client paid less than the minimum standard fee. What client did you use?
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It's been very up-and-down in the last 24 hours: Results: 2012-Sep-09 09:20pm (up to block 198088)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 18417 | 0 (0.00000) | 18066 | 351 | 130.43 | 0.01 | 25.18 | 130.41 | 0.015 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1686 | 0 (0.00000) | 1614 | 72 | 23.96 | 0.00 | 6.68 | 23.95 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2275 | 0 (0.00000) | 2240 | 35 | 27.45 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 27.42 | 0.095 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2372 | 1 (0.00043) | 2328 | 43 | 50.73 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 42.67 | 15.894 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2469 | 1 (0.00041) | 2432 | 36 | 89.48 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 85.23 | 4.746 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5316 | 3 (0.00057) | 5302 | 11 | 378.33 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 75.01 | 80.173 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7654 | 8 (0.00105) | 7624 | 22 | 643.21 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 518.82 | 19.338 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9545 | 19 (0.00200) | 9471 | 55 | 1590.82 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 316.18 | 80.125 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9655 | 43 (0.00446) | 9598 | 14 | 1281.79 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -20.53 | 101.602 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 14345 | 109 (0.00760) | 14227 | 9 | 2620.96 | 1945.67 | 9.35 | 675.29 | 74.235 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 27287 | 402 (0.01474) | 26876 | 9 | 8173.26 | 7531.97 | 1.80 | 641.29 | 92.154 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14589 | 330 (0.02263) | 14253 | 6 | 4679.01 | 4833.34 | 15.00 | -154.33 | 103.298 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22235 | 691 (0.03108) | 21540 | 4 | 5466.46 | 4620.00 | 9.24 | 846.46 | 84.515 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14775 | 682 (0.04618) | 14086 | 7 | 6767.45 | 8051.88 | 24.99 | -1284.42 | 118.979 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15303 | 948 (0.06196) | 14351 | 4 | 4629.23 | 4110.46 | 31.20 | 518.77 | 88.793 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20276 | 1905 (0.09403) | 18354 | 17 | 9820.41 | 9762.93 | 7.01 | 57.47 | 99.415 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 80112 | 9843 (0.12290) | 70248 | 21 | 9958.66 | 8559.35 | 0.00 | 1399.31 | 85.949 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 20138 | 3789 (0.18827) | 16336 | 13 | 8009.77 | 8252.43 | 14.50 | -242.66 | 103.030 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 71214 | 17332 (0.24345) | 53861 | 21 | 42508.64 | 42211.47 | 347.79 | 297.16 | 99.301 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 55280 | 20347 (0.36834) | 34892 | 41 | 27946.72 | 27262.81 | 212.63 | 683.90 | 97.553 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 476096 | 231971 (0.48754) | 243824 | 301 | 290031.40 | 288490.50 | 2173.29 | 1540.89 | 99.469 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 176714 | 88067 (0.49882) | 88484 | 163 | 175750.58 | 174422.23 | 1295.21 | 1328.35 | 99.244 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 144185 | 106076 (0.73607) | 38035 | 74 | 138113.76 | 135868.77 | 467.98 | 2244.99 | 98.375 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 10572 | 8416 (0.79644) | 2151 | 5 | 19677.83 | 19615.72 | 400.00 | 62.11 | 99.684 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 9178 | 7867 (0.85800) | 1302 | 9 | 9201.53 | 9035.20 | 400.00 | 166.32 | 98.192 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 4720 | 4309 (0.91409) | 405 | 6 | 7942.72 | 7844.43 | 0.00 | 98.29 | 98.762 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7348 | 7068 (0.97976) | 146 | 134 | 16077.49 | 15799.59 | 239.21 | 277.89 | 98.272 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1200960 | 488668 | 711017 | 1275 | 301137.61 | 292936.86 | 142.88 | 8200.74 | 97.277 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 42796 | 21559 | 21029 | 208 | 490454.60 | 488299.02 | 5668.35 | 2155.58 | 99.560 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1243756 | 510227 | 732046 | 1483 | 791592.22 | 781235.88 | 5811.24 | 10356.33 | 98.692 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 10356.33345390 BTC (1.308%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 626.62220000 BTC SD Profit after fees: 9729.71125390 BTC (1.229%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4055568 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2299618 (56.7%) Blockchain MB: 1679.2 : SatoshiDice Tx: 940.0 (56.0%)
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Just checking back into this thread and confirming that I'm still the holder of this debt. I'm will PM my email addy.
I received your details, and those of 2 others. I'm surprised to get so few replies. I guess most people who read this thread will see any announcement I make here and so don't need to contact me directly.
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Dooglus - would you rather see the dealer's hole card every hand, or be allowed to double down and split for free?
If I had to decide right now, I'd chose to see the dealer's hole card every hand. If I had longer, I'd run a simulation and find out which is really better. It strikes me that knowing the hole card lets me play better strategy, whereas double-down and split are relatively rare in the game. I wouldn't be surprised if my gut feeling was wrong though.
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Results: 2012-Sep-08 09:19pm (up to block 197935)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 18223 | 0 (0.00000) | 17872 | 351 | 128.91 | 0.01 | 25.18 | 128.89 | 0.015 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1682 | 0 (0.00000) | 1610 | 72 | 23.95 | 0.00 | 6.68 | 23.95 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2269 | 0 (0.00000) | 2234 | 35 | 27.42 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 27.39 | 0.095 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2369 | 1 (0.00043) | 2325 | 43 | 50.73 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 42.66 | 15.895 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2465 | 1 (0.00041) | 2428 | 36 | 89.46 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 85.22 | 4.747 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5309 | 3 (0.00057) | 5295 | 11 | 378.20 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 74.87 | 80.202 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7621 | 8 (0.00105) | 7591 | 22 | 643.07 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 518.68 | 19.342 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9533 | 19 (0.00200) | 9459 | 55 | 1590.36 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 315.71 | 80.148 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9640 | 43 (0.00447) | 9583 | 14 | 1281.68 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -20.65 | 101.611 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 14238 | 106 (0.00745) | 14123 | 9 | 2619.28 | 1911.94 | 9.35 | 707.33 | 72.995 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 27152 | 401 (0.01477) | 26743 | 8 | 8168.59 | 7531.32 | 1.80 | 637.27 | 92.198 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14558 | 328 (0.02254) | 14224 | 6 | 4678.54 | 4832.45 | 15.00 | -153.90 | 103.290 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22172 | 688 (0.03104) | 21480 | 4 | 5464.99 | 4615.84 | 9.24 | 849.15 | 84.462 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14738 | 681 (0.04623) | 14050 | 7 | 6766.92 | 8051.77 | 24.99 | -1284.85 | 118.987 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15282 | 947 (0.06198) | 14331 | 4 | 4628.79 | 4110.14 | 31.20 | 518.65 | 88.795 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20240 | 1897 (0.09380) | 18326 | 17 | 9819.48 | 9760.78 | 7.01 | 58.69 | 99.402 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 79930 | 9818 (0.12286) | 70091 | 21 | 9949.66 | 8551.41 | 0.00 | 1398.24 | 85.947 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 20086 | 3780 (0.18831) | 16293 | 13 | 7996.14 | 8245.34 | 14.50 | -249.19 | 103.116 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 70406 | 17128 (0.24335) | 53257 | 21 | 41553.62 | 41242.38 | 347.79 | 311.23 | 99.251 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 54989 | 20244 (0.36842) | 34704 | 41 | 27685.92 | 27019.18 | 212.63 | 666.74 | 97.592 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 474079 | 230985 (0.48754) | 242793 | 301 | 289083.95 | 287552.18 | 2173.29 | 1531.77 | 99.470 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 174300 | 86855 (0.49877) | 87283 | 162 | 154228.34 | 154053.80 | 1045.21 | 174.54 | 99.887 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 143834 | 105817 (0.73607) | 37943 | 74 | 137053.13 | 134951.63 | 467.98 | 2101.50 | 98.467 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 10287 | 8202 (0.79763) | 2081 | 4 | 19611.54 | 19551.89 | 400.00 | 59.65 | 99.696 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 9120 | 7820 (0.85830) | 1291 | 9 | 9188.33 | 9023.83 | 400.00 | 164.50 | 98.210 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 4700 | 4294 (0.91478) | 400 | 6 | 7928.57 | 7837.05 | 0.00 | 91.52 | 98.846 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7320 | 7040 (0.97968) | 146 | 134 | 16066.91 | 15788.98 | 239.21 | 277.93 | 98.270 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1195025 | 486160 | 707592 | 1273 | 298824.00 | 290675.51 | 142.88 | 8148.48 | 97.273 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 41517 | 20946 | 20364 | 207 | 467882.62 | 466973.50 | 5418.35 | 909.11 | 99.806 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1236542 | 507106 | 727956 | 1480 | 766706.63 | 757649.02 | 5561.24 | 9057.60 | 98.819 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 9057.60491700 BTC (1.181%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 622.96940000 BTC SD Profit after fees: 8434.63551700 BTC (1.100%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4023785 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2285529 (56.8%) Blockchain MB: 1666.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 934.4 (56.1%)
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Sent 0.95BTC, just got 0.9519 back about 6 hours later Maybe the idea is eventually everyone will be sending in the full 10BTC and then WHAM money gone...? Or maybe he genuinely has some sort of business case..? I tried with 5 BTC then 10 BTC and both came back:
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ouch.... bad day for s.dice.
Yeah crazy bets there too. Ouch! How someone doesn't seem to mind losing 200 coins in a bet is beyond me. Then again if they can afford that it's probably not too much an issue. I've not had a chance to look at the blockchain to see what caused the recent losses - I've been very busy recently. It's hard to find time to get online. I'll post updated stats as soon as the script finishes running however. Edit: Ouch! Another bad day for SD...
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Results: 2012-Sep-07 10:23pm (up to block 197806)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 18074 | 0 (0.00000) | 17725 | 349 | 128.36 | 0.01 | 25.08 | 128.34 | 0.015 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1668 | 0 (0.00000) | 1597 | 71 | 23.94 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 23.93 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2257 | 0 (0.00000) | 2222 | 35 | 27.41 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 27.38 | 0.095 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2355 | 1 (0.00043) | 2311 | 43 | 50.62 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 42.55 | 15.931 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2452 | 1 (0.00041) | 2415 | 36 | 88.95 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 84.71 | 4.772 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5255 | 3 (0.00057) | 5241 | 11 | 374.47 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 71.15 | 81.000 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7523 | 8 (0.00107) | 7493 | 22 | 635.73 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 511.34 | 19.566 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9529 | 19 (0.00201) | 9455 | 55 | 1590.29 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 315.65 | 80.151 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9499 | 43 (0.00453) | 9442 | 14 | 1276.52 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -25.81 | 102.022 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 14090 | 104 (0.00739) | 13977 | 9 | 2611.18 | 1909.42 | 9.35 | 701.75 | 73.125 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 26904 | 400 (0.01487) | 26496 | 8 | 8162.30 | 7530.68 | 1.80 | 631.61 | 92.262 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14455 | 326 (0.02256) | 14123 | 6 | 4676.19 | 4831.59 | 15.00 | -155.40 | 103.323 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22156 | 688 (0.03106) | 21464 | 4 | 5464.69 | 4615.84 | 9.24 | 848.85 | 84.467 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14728 | 681 (0.04626) | 14040 | 7 | 6766.76 | 8051.77 | 24.99 | -1285.00 | 118.990 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15253 | 944 (0.06191) | 14305 | 4 | 4628.35 | 4109.66 | 31.20 | 518.69 | 88.793 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20169 | 1893 (0.09394) | 18259 | 17 | 9657.80 | 9754.10 | 7.01 | -96.30 | 100.997 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 79737 | 9793 (0.12285) | 69923 | 21 | 9933.02 | 8534.79 | 0.00 | 1398.23 | 85.923 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 19992 | 3761 (0.18825) | 16218 | 13 | 7902.18 | 8050.20 | 14.50 | -148.01 | 101.873 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 69200 | 16831 (0.24330) | 52348 | 21 | 39851.59 | 39369.99 | 347.79 | 481.59 | 98.792 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 54839 | 20195 (0.36854) | 34603 | 41 | 27656.87 | 26990.11 | 212.63 | 666.76 | 97.589 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 471956 | 229979 (0.48760) | 241677 | 300 | 288120.87 | 286587.34 | 2173.29 | 1533.53 | 99.468 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 172179 | 85812 (0.49886) | 86205 | 162 | 121479.64 | 119990.51 | 1045.21 | 1489.13 | 98.774 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 143212 | 105367 (0.73612) | 37771 | 74 | 136665.99 | 134573.13 | 467.98 | 2092.85 | 98.469 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 10119 | 8063 (0.79713) | 2052 | 4 | 19557.20 | 19496.14 | 400.00 | 61.05 | 99.688 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 8939 | 7668 (0.85868) | 1262 | 9 | 9161.10 | 8999.91 | 400.00 | 161.18 | 98.241 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 4678 | 4276 (0.91524) | 396 | 6 | 7919.19 | 7828.78 | 0.00 | 90.41 | 98.858 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7313 | 7033 (0.97966) | 146 | 134 | 16048.56 | 15770.56 | 239.21 | 278.00 | 98.268 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1188841 | 483811 | 703761 | 1269 | 296737.42 | 288586.24 | 142.68 | 8151.18 | 97.253 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 39690 | 20078 | 19405 | 207 | 433722.47 | 431425.41 | 5418.35 | 2297.05 | 99.470 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1228531 | 503889 | 723166 | 1476 | 730459.89 | 720011.66 | 5561.04 | 10448.23 | 98.570 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 10448.23867558 BTC (1.430%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 618.88082500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 9829.35785058 BTC (1.346%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 3994129 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2270341 (56.8%) Blockchain MB: 1654.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 928.2 (56.1%)
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I would love it if you did this!
I will get to it, but I'm really pretty busy at the moment.
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Would be interesting if you posted username and then we could see what actually happened. Though I doubt the operator would share without permission. Anyway losing 8 times in a row isn't uncommon, ask martingale betters And dealer drew a 19? Unpossible. l2odds. You can copy/paste the "final shuffle" string from the 'provably fair' sub-window for individual hands - then we can see how the cards ran if we know all the decisions you made.
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Dooglus is pretty much a badass in general - he's an amazing asset to the community here, by any measure.
How sweet of you to say so.
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Protip: Test your site before you bring it online, especially if it deals with other people's money.
Did you find a bug? Were you aware that something was wrong on the site while you were winning? I'm curious to know what happened here. And yes, that logic seems flawed. If you won more than the site made in several months when it didn't have the reputation of not being able to pay out, how is it going to recover that loss in a few weeks now that it's known to be out of funds?
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A website bug allowed shrewd blackjack players to win considerably more then the site has made in a number of months. I'm not reversing those winnings but I'm not paying this out of pocket. If a withdraw you make doesn't work try again next week or two or for a smaller amount.
Out of interest, what was the bug? Was it the case that the house edge was negative all along, and all you needed to do was play basic strategy to win? I suppose you've fixed it now, so you're safe to tell us.
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Will give a 0.25 BTC a spin with this and report back. Question though: Isn't the payout for higher matches a bit low, considering how statistically unlikely it is that the last 3 or 4 matches occur? Actually, how likely are they to occur? Remember that you'll still win even if you totally miss. Think of it as a micro time deposit. Every once in a while you'll get lucky and hit bigger. Each extra digit you match increases your profit by a factor of 10, whereas the difficulty of doing so increases by a factor of 16. But since it's all free money we can't really complain that the difficulty increases faster than the payout. (Not until they run off with our deposits, anyway )
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How often you reshuffle and how many decks you use on Blackjack?
The rules does not state it!!!
Incidentally, if you're looking for (barely) beatable blackjack, check out strikesapphire.com. They used to offer 65-75% penetration, but now it's much lower. They do allow a huge range of bets though, from $0.10 up to $5.00 - a 50x spread. Just don't win too much, or they'll make up lies about you and ban you. And your 'imaginary' girlfriend.
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