Results: 2012-Sep-04 10:35am (up to block 197196)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 17253 | 0 (0.00000) | 16905 | 348 | 123.92 | 0.01 | 25.08 | 123.90 | 0.016 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1626 | 0 (0.00000) | 1555 | 71 | 23.56 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 23.56 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2199 | 0 (0.00000) | 2164 | 35 | 26.60 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 26.57 | 0.098 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2267 | 1 (0.00045) | 2223 | 43 | 49.03 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 40.97 | 16.444 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2413 | 1 (0.00042) | 2376 | 36 | 88.79 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 84.54 | 4.781 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5194 | 3 (0.00058) | 5180 | 11 | 374.17 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 70.84 | 81.066 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7453 | 8 (0.00108) | 7423 | 22 | 635.46 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 511.07 | 19.574 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9436 | 19 (0.00203) | 9362 | 55 | 1584.57 | 1274.62 | 44.25 | 309.94 | 80.440 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9395 | 43 (0.00458) | 9338 | 14 | 1273.65 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -28.67 | 102.251 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12902 | 98 (0.00760) | 12795 | 9 | 2494.37 | 1840.67 | 9.35 | 653.70 | 73.793 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 25813 | 379 (0.01469) | 25427 | 7 | 8082.98 | 7439.63 | 1.80 | 643.34 | 92.041 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 14022 | 321 (0.02290) | 13695 | 6 | 4644.07 | 4810.26 | 15.00 | -166.18 | 103.579 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21947 | 683 (0.03113) | 21260 | 4 | 5452.13 | 4612.47 | 9.24 | 839.65 | 84.599 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14525 | 673 (0.04636) | 13845 | 7 | 6751.54 | 8047.64 | 24.99 | -1296.10 | 119.197 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15068 | 934 (0.06200) | 14130 | 4 | 4619.41 | 4104.29 | 31.20 | 515.12 | 88.849 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 19833 | 1867 (0.09421) | 17950 | 16 | 9636.89 | 9727.32 | 7.01 | -90.42 | 100.938 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 76278 | 9354 (0.12266) | 66903 | 21 | 9679.70 | 8351.32 | 0.00 | 1328.37 | 86.277 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 19770 | 3728 (0.18869) | 16029 | 13 | 7843.42 | 7957.22 | 14.50 | -113.80 | 101.451 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 65015 | 15778 (0.24275) | 49218 | 19 | 30845.47 | 30795.19 | 347.79 | 50.28 | 99.837 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 52166 | 19211 (0.36854) | 32917 | 38 | 26077.18 | 25447.72 | 212.63 | 629.45 | 97.586 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 460195 | 224293 (0.48758) | 235724 | 178 | 283975.20 | 282265.39 | 2173.21 | 1709.80 | 99.398 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 169001 | 84185 (0.49861) | 84656 | 160 | 103474.30 | 100329.27 | 1045.21 | 3145.02 | 96.961 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 140486 | 103382 (0.73627) | 37031 | 73 | 134618.99 | 132586.72 | 467.98 | 2032.26 | 98.490 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 9350 | 7436 (0.79563) | 1910 | 4 | 19080.02 | 18968.81 | 400.00 | 111.21 | 99.417 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 7800 | 6668 (0.85586) | 1123 | 9 | 8338.60 | 8186.58 | 400.00 | 152.01 | 98.177 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 3683 | 3363 (0.91460) | 314 | 6 | 5177.35 | 5189.53 | 0.00 | -12.17 | 100.235 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7228 | 6949 (0.97956) | 145 | 134 | 15662.57 | 15385.69 | 239.21 | 276.87 | 98.232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1154654 | 470359 | 683159 | 1136 | 287487.26 | 279356.22 | 142.61 | 8131.04 | 97.172 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 37664 | 19018 | 18439 | 207 | 403146.78 | 399706.61 | 5418.35 | 3440.17 | 99.147 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1192318 | 489377 | 701598 | 1343 | 690634.05 | 679062.83 | 5560.97 | 11571.22 | 98.325 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 11571.22351559 BTC (1.675%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 600.54257500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 10970.68094059 BTC (1.588%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 3857008 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2200629 (57.1%) Blockchain MB: 1599.2 : SatoshiDice Tx: 900.2 (56.3%)
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Based on the OP I assumed (incorrectly) that the attacker "only" got 100% of the hot wallet.
It sounds as if the attacker only got the hot wallet, but that unfortunately there was no cold wallet. It beggars belief that people are still not using offline wallets for the majority of the coins they're responsible for.
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I see two cases, X and Y:
(X): If we pay out using the old $1/BTC price, total debt = $1 + $1 = $2, we pay out 50%. A gets 0.5 BTC = $5 and B get 0.5 BTC.
(Y): If we pay out using the new$10/BTC price, total debt = $1 + $10 = $11, we pay out 90.9%. A gets 0.091 BTC = $0.90, B gets 0.909 BTC.
In X, where we use the old price, the dollar holders end up with more than they were owed, while the BTC holders end up with less. In Y, using the new higher price, everyone gets the same fraction of what they were owed.
Y looks like the fairer case to me. What does anyone else think? Can someone make a case for dollar holders to be making a profit on the dollars they were holding when the price of BTC goes up? Maybe I'm missing something.
I was in a hurry yesterday when I posted. There are more options, including the one Seal proposed. He suggested converting BTC into AUD at the current price, but allocating it to creditors at the old price. Let's call that option Z. In Z, we sell the 1 BTC for the new price of $10, but use the old price to calculate the total debt ($1 + $1 = $2). So we can pay everyone out 500% of what they're owed: A gets $5 and B gets $5. Actually that seems to be exactly the same as (X) above, except that everyone is paid out in dollars, not bitcoins. From a practical point of view, I'd rather pay out in bitcoins. Then I don't have to work out how to make international bank transfers, etc. Paying Bitcoins is much easier. I agree with Patrick that (Y) seems to be the fairest option. I suspect that if put up a claims page, some percentage of accounts will remain unclaimed. I have no way of contacting account holders; WBX never collected email address (although I expect Andre has a significant number of emails from disgruntled customers in his inbox). It seems likely that the amounts in unclaimed accounts could offset any new creditors which come to light. But that's just a guess; I have no way of knowing for sure how many customers made deposits which never got further than Andre's bank account, and never touched the WBX database at all.
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HC Lottery has positive expected value. HC Invest has a negative expected value.
You know what would be even more profitable and sustainable than running HC Lottery and HC Invest? Just running HC Lottery. Why run a -EV game at all?
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Dooglus, whats your stance?
My stance: * I'd like to get payments made ASAP * I don't have a full list of creditors, so don't know what percentage I should be paying everyone * Andre is ignoring (or not getting) my email * I am not a lawyer, and don't know what I am allowed or required to do with the funds I'm holding. I don't know how to proceed from there. I still have the 1800-ish BTC safe and sound. As for what rate to use when paying out, I have been thinking about that. Here's a simple example to try to make the picture clearer: Suppose there are 1 customers. A has $1 in his accounf and B has 1 BTC. At the time trading stops the price is $1/BTC. The $ goes missing but we have the 1 BTC still. Then the price goes up to $10/BTC before we pay out. I see two cases, X and Y: (X): If we pay out using the old $1/BTC price, total debt = $1 + $1 = $2, we pay out 50%. A gets 0.5 BTC = $5 and B get 0.5 BTC. (Y): If we pay out using the new$10/BTC price, total debt = $1 + $10 = $11, we pay out 90.9%. A gets 0.091 BTC = $0.90, B gets 0.909 BTC. In X, where we use the old price, the dollar holders end up with more than they were owed, while the BTC holders end up with less. In Y, using the new higher price, everyone gets the same fraction of what they were owed. Y looks like the fairer case to me. What does anyone else think? Can someone make a case for dollar holders to be making a profit on the dollars they were holding when the price of BTC goes up? Maybe I'm missing something.
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Results: 2012-Sep-02 08:36pm (up to block 196966)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 16907 | 0 (0.00000) | 16567 | 340 | 120.38 | 0.01 | 24.98 | 120.36 | 0.016 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1582 | 0 (0.00000) | 1511 | 71 | 23.20 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 23.20 | 0.008 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2141 | 0 (0.00000) | 2106 | 35 | 25.04 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 25.02 | 0.104 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2224 | 1 (0.00046) | 2180 | 43 | 48.27 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 40.21 | 16.704 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2360 | 1 (0.00043) | 2323 | 36 | 86.94 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 82.69 | 4.882 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5078 | 3 (0.00059) | 5064 | 11 | 372.88 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 69.56 | 81.344 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7352 | 8 (0.00109) | 7322 | 22 | 633.36 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 508.98 | 19.639 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9174 | 19 (0.00208) | 9100 | 55 | 1576.84 | 1274.61 | 44.25 | 302.23 | 80.833 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9273 | 42 (0.00454) | 9217 | 14 | 1261.12 | 1277.33 | 13.11 | -16.20 | 101.285 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12738 | 96 (0.00754) | 12633 | 9 | 2473.78 | 1804.40 | 9.35 | 669.37 | 72.941 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 25594 | 376 (0.01469) | 25211 | 7 | 8060.81 | 7398.01 | 1.80 | 662.80 | 91.777 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 13219 | 303 (0.02293) | 12910 | 6 | 4618.24 | 4790.18 | 15.00 | -171.93 | 103.723 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21798 | 682 (0.03129) | 21112 | 4 | 5438.46 | 4611.79 | 9.24 | 826.66 | 84.800 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14324 | 673 (0.04701) | 13644 | 7 | 6726.83 | 8047.58 | 24.99 | -1320.74 | 119.634 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 14919 | 930 (0.06235) | 13985 | 4 | 4598.08 | 4096.88 | 31.20 | 501.19 | 89.100 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 19605 | 1854 (0.09464) | 17735 | 16 | 9607.78 | 9703.66 | 7.01 | -95.87 | 100.998 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 75768 | 9309 (0.12290) | 66438 | 21 | 9615.00 | 8306.91 | 0.00 | 1308.08 | 86.395 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 19591 | 3700 (0.18899) | 15878 | 13 | 7808.65 | 7939.04 | 14.50 | -130.39 | 101.670 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 63812 | 15503 (0.24302) | 48290 | 19 | 30332.20 | 30390.28 | 347.79 | -58.07 | 100.191 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 51262 | 18862 (0.36823) | 32362 | 38 | 24792.24 | 24120.40 | 212.63 | 671.84 | 97.290 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 451059 | 219857 (0.48761) | 231028 | 174 | 279095.33 | 277760.35 | 2173.21 | 1334.98 | 99.522 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 168027 | 83721 (0.49873) | 84146 | 160 | 102459.48 | 99539.96 | 1045.21 | 2919.52 | 97.151 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 137814 | 101409 (0.73623) | 36332 | 73 | 132747.03 | 130723.81 | 467.98 | 2023.21 | 98.476 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 9093 | 7232 (0.79569) | 1857 | 4 | 18889.41 | 18766.89 | 400.00 | 122.52 | 99.351 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 7347 | 6286 (0.85664) | 1052 | 9 | 7957.39 | 7812.50 | 400.00 | 144.88 | 98.179 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 3568 | 3264 (0.91634) | 298 | 6 | 5125.77 | 5140.26 | 0.00 | -14.48 | 100.283 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7110 | 6833 (0.97922) | 145 | 132 | 15658.82 | 15381.99 | 239.20 | 276.83 | 98.232 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1135613 | 462187 | 672304 | 1122 | 282114.95 | 274158.74 | 142.50 | 7956.20 | 97.180 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 37126 | 18777 | 18142 | 207 | 398038.51 | 395168.23 | 5418.35 | 2870.28 | 99.279 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1172739 | 480964 | 690446 | 1329 | 680153.47 | 669326.98 | 5560.86 | 10826.49 | 98.408 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 10826.49172167 BTC (1.592%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 590.71480000 BTC SD Profit after fees: 10235.77692167 BTC (1.505%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 3797306 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2164138 (57.0%) Blockchain MB: 1574.5 : SatoshiDice Tx: 885.4 (56.2%)
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Thanks for the insights. That will be considered. The only reason why it's one bet per transaction is because it is simple for bettors to see the last N digits of their transaction hash as their ticket number and as soon as it is included in the block, it is easy for them to know if they won or not and how much they won.
It would be pretty trivial to make a web page that lets the user copy/paste in the txid and block hash and have it display all the bet hashes, winnings, and a total. Perhaps offer 2 different addresses - one which counts the payment as a single bet, and one which treats it as a series of 0.25 BTC bets? That way people can decide whether they want the variance or not.
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That makes sense.
I'd be interested to know why you think it is government, but feel free not to share.
I've seen some pretty wild accusations from Strike Sapphire people before; my girlfriend was accused of not existing, even though she had previously engaged in a Skype audio call with the management and I've seen a player accused of being US law enforcement for no apparent reason. Evidence doesn't seem to matter; accuse first, think later seems to be the policy. I think maybe alcohol plays a part in the problem, but can't be sure.
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I would imagine a 10 BTC limit as 2000% on 10 is 20000.
2000% of 10 is 200. You don't just multiply, or 100% of 1 would be 100. I wonder if people are sending 40 separate 0.25 bets rather than one single 10 BTC bet because that way they have 40 separate chances to 'win the jackpot'. Perhaps you could treat a bet of 10 BTC as 40 separate 0.25 bets and calculate the winning for each separately (but appending a different number to the txid or block hash before rehashing it, and sending the resulting winnings in a single output. That way people get the reduced variance of betting lots of small bets without needing to spam the network. Also, I'd suggest not mentioning the original 0.25-only address in the OP, since that's the one people see first. Some probably stop reading before they get to the new address at the end of the OP.
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I would imagine a 10 BTC limit as 2000% on 10 is 20000.
2000% of 10 is 200. You don't just multiply, or 100% of 1 would be 100. I wonder if people are sending 40 separate 0.25 bets rather than one single 10 BTC bet because that way they have 40 separate chances to 'win the jackpot'. Perhaps you could treat a bet of 10 BTC as 40 separate 0.25 bets and calculate the winning for each separately (but appending a different number to the txid or block hash before rehashing it, and sending the resulting winnings in a single output. That way people get the reduced variance of betting lots of small bets without needing to spam the network. Also, I'd suggest not mentioning the original 0.25-only address in the OP, since that's the one people see first. Some probably stop reading before they get to the new address at the end of the OP.
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Results: 2012-Sep-01 05:28pm (up to block 196777)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 16731 | 0 (0.00000) | 16402 | 329 | 119.96 | 0.01 | 23.88 | 119.94 | 0.016 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1557 | 0 (0.00000) | 1486 | 71 | 21.99 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 21.98 | 0.008 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2133 | 0 (0.00000) | 2098 | 35 | 24.91 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 24.88 | 0.104 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2209 | 1 (0.00046) | 2165 | 43 | 47.15 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 39.08 | 17.102 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2349 | 1 (0.00043) | 2312 | 36 | 86.26 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 82.02 | 4.920 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5043 | 3 (0.00060) | 5029 | 11 | 372.23 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 68.90 | 81.488 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7300 | 8 (0.00110) | 7270 | 22 | 629.37 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 504.99 | 19.763 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9083 | 19 (0.00210) | 9009 | 55 | 1570.24 | 1274.61 | 44.25 | 295.62 | 81.173 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9129 | 42 (0.00461) | 9073 | 14 | 1238.29 | 1277.27 | 13.11 | -38.97 | 103.147 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12597 | 95 (0.00755) | 12493 | 9 | 2453.47 | 1791.86 | 9.35 | 661.60 | 73.034 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 25343 | 373 (0.01472) | 24963 | 7 | 8027.78 | 7391.32 | 1.80 | 636.46 | 92.072 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12808 | 294 (0.02297) | 12508 | 6 | 4581.89 | 4759.80 | 15.00 | -177.91 | 103.883 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21674 | 679 (0.03133) | 20992 | 3 | 5405.87 | 4589.30 | 9.24 | 816.56 | 84.895 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14225 | 671 (0.04719) | 13547 | 7 | 6696.91 | 8034.67 | 24.99 | -1337.76 | 119.976 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 14759 | 918 (0.06222) | 13837 | 4 | 4541.58 | 4023.12 | 31.20 | 518.46 | 88.584 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 19361 | 1829 (0.09455) | 17516 | 16 | 9536.45 | 9613.66 | 7.01 | -77.20 | 100.810 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 75252 | 9245 (0.12289) | 65986 | 21 | 9450.93 | 8082.72 | 0.00 | 1368.20 | 85.523 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 19421 | 3657 (0.18843) | 15751 | 13 | 7781.83 | 7905.94 | 14.50 | -124.10 | 101.595 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 62570 | 15199 (0.24299) | 47352 | 19 | 28180.74 | 28372.17 | 347.79 | -191.43 | 100.679 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 50563 | 18610 (0.36833) | 31915 | 38 | 23763.55 | 23131.67 | 212.63 | 631.88 | 97.341 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 446568 | 217681 (0.48764) | 228713 | 174 | 270084.69 | 268429.43 | 2173.21 | 1655.25 | 99.387 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 166693 | 83036 (0.49861) | 83500 | 157 | 101314.90 | 98570.84 | 1045.21 | 2744.05 | 97.292 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 136215 | 100241 (0.73630) | 35901 | 73 | 131286.08 | 129289.42 | 467.98 | 1996.65 | 98.479 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 8699 | 6917 (0.79551) | 1778 | 4 | 18723.74 | 18610.12 | 400.00 | 113.62 | 99.393 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 7029 | 6013 (0.85655) | 1007 | 9 | 7810.99 | 7671.70 | 400.00 | 139.28 | 98.217 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 3383 | 3095 (0.91649) | 282 | 6 | 5086.29 | 5102.54 | 0.00 | -16.25 | 100.320 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6961 | 6689 (0.97936) | 141 | 131 | 15529.25 | 15252.32 | 239.20 | 276.93 | 98.217 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1123648 | 457059 | 665483 | 1106 | 277144.94 | 269270.42 | 141.40 | 7874.51 | 97.159 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 36007 | 18257 | 17543 | 207 | 387222.52 | 384344.22 | 5418.35 | 2878.30 | 99.257 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1159655 | 475316 | 683026 | 1313 | 664367.47 | 653614.65 | 5559.76 | 10752.82 | 98.381 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 10752.82061139 BTC (1.619%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 584.13672500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 10168.68388639 BTC (1.531%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 3758438 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2141265 (57.0%) Blockchain MB: 1558.7 : SatoshiDice Tx: 876.0 (56.2%)
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It's about 10kɃ, which is a significant sum. For all I know Vandroiy is in a tent in the rain somewhere. Personally I'd wait until I was back at home as well.
I would have provided a payment address at the time of the bet, and had it written into the contract. For 10k BTC it's worth someone hacking the forum software to be able to send a PM as Vandroiy but giving their own deposit address. I don't mind if someone wants to send me 10k BTC while I'm in a tent in the rain. It will be perfectly secure until I get back to civilisation (he writes, from his cabin in the rain in the middle of nowhere...)
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give him a bit of time, as I said, he could be short of coins or busy at the moment.
There's a very interesting and informative post here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=87656.msg1145478#msg1145478about how a gambling site can make sure that they have an almost zero chance of ever running out of coins to pay winners out with.
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I'm just automating the borrowing part and put some kind of attraction to it. What's wrong with that?
What's wrong with that is that if you allow people to borrow anonymously you vastly increase the probability of them never repaying their loan. I didn't see any details of how you're going to credit check your borrowers, but if you let people somehow automatically and anonymously 'borrow' from you, I don't think you can expect to get many of your loans repaid. Some people would be honest, but I suspect that most would think along the lines of "I'm not going to lose any reputation, and I'm not going to get into trouble if I don't repay this - some I won't repay this". Maybe the loans won't be anonymous, and you're proposing some automatic way that I can prove I'm creditworthy to your script. I'd like to see how that works...
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Thanks for your reply. For HC Invest, I plan to put different addresses for 0.25, 0.5, 1, and 5 bitcoins and the payout will be every 144 confirmations. I hope that will be fair with you. Do you agree?
Why not allow any amount between stated allowable min and max values, all to the same address? If the value is not acceptable, you treat it how you currently treat any non-0.25 value. I don't think you need to use different addresses or limit your users to certain round numbers. If you're willing to accept 'bets' of 5 BTC, why not also accept bets of 4.932345 BTC? That way people don't have to send multiple transactions. You could even offer to split bets that exceed the maximum up into multiple bets of the maximum, and find some way to generate a different hash for each such bet. Perhaps by re-hashing the txid after appending the bet number to it. So instead of comparing the last digits of txid with block hash, you compare the last digits of sha256(txid + "0") for the first such bet, sha256(txid + "1") for the 2nd, etc. Then I can "invest" an arbitrary amount without spamming the blockchain.
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Our servers also generate a random string, called the server_seed. We combine the initial_shuffle and the server_seed strings into a single JSON encoded string. We call this JSON string the secret. Response: "WTF is a JSON string?" "JSON, or JavaScript Object Notation, is a text-based open standard designed for human-readable data interchange" -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JSONIt's just a way of formatting strings. Since the server has two things it wants to keep secret, but doesn't want to flood you with too much information, it combines the two things into a single string of text before hashing it. JSON is just a convenient way of doing it. So if the server_seed is "xxx1" and the initial_shuffle is "yyy2", the secret formed by combining these two pieces of information would be: {"server_seed":"xxx1","initial_shuffle":"yyy2"} and that's what ends up getting hashed and displayed before the game starts. Finally, we hash the secret using the SHA256 one-way hashing algorithm. This is called the Hash(secret). We show you this value to you before the hand starts, so you can independently verify that we didn't manipulate the server_seed or the initial_shuffle. Response: This I understand, but only because a few months ago a bitcoin/cryptogeek friend of mine explained what a SHA256 is and how it worked to verify the bitcoin kamikaze game, if you remember that one. Without that lesson, this would make no sense to me. That's the part I guessed would be a stumbling block. Our servers then hash the combination of the server_seed and the client_seed (using SHA256 again). We use this hash to seed the Mersenne Twister pseudorandom number generator. We then fully reshuffle the deck using this random number generator Response: "Huh? Seed? Mersene Twisters?" Mersenne Twister is an algorithm for shuffling a list into an apparently random order. It's not really random; it takes a list that you want shuffled and a number (called the seed) that determines how the shuffle will happen, exactly. If you always use the same seed, you'll always get the same shuffle, but use a slightly different seed and you'll get a completely different shuffle. It's a little like hashing in that respect. Anyways, even if I personally were to understand it, it would be valuable to explain it so normal people understood. Sort of like how my friend taught me how Bitcoin Kamikaze was provably fair as well. This may entice more traditional online gaming aficionados to adopt Bitcoin, thus bolstering our economy.
For instance, the Wizard of Odds runs a popular gambling forum. He endorses Bodog gaming because he says that there have been too many sites that were rigged and he trusts Bodog (plus he probably makes a bunch on affiliate deals, but that's neither here nor there). If Bitzino can explain to normal people how their games are "provably fair" via mathematics, then their system should carry as much weight as a Wizard endorsement, if not more so.
Understood. I guess it's hard to know how far back to basics to go when giving such an explanation. I notice Mersenne Twister is linked to a page that explains it, but SHA256 isn't, for example. I've gone through the process of explaining all this to someone with no relevant knowledge myself, and it can take a while to get through to them, even when you have immediate feedback of which bits they're struggling with. I think those are very good points. Non-geeks have no idea, and it really doesn't matter, about JSON or SHA256 specifics.
So I guess a separate explanation for 'non-geeks' would be useful. The specifics are important, otherwise there's no point in having it "provably fair". The method used needs to be explained fully enough that though who care and technically able can go through the motions themselves and verify a few hands.
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[...], or stay out of those pots until it's just the more reasonable people left in the game.
Trouble is by then everyone's got twice as many chips as me.
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What does "sucked out" mean?
When someone has a much worse hand than you but calls your big bet anyway when they really should have folded, and then proceeds to get just the card(s) he needs to beat you, he has "sucked out" on you. Say I have 2d 7d, and you have 5c 5s. The flop comes 2s Kd 5h. I have a pair of 2s, you have trip 5s. I bet, you raise, I put you all-in and you call. Then we see Qd 8d on the turn and river. I've sucked out on you by catching a runner runner flush. The reason you see a lot of suck outs on seals, especially on the freerolls, is that people are playing any two cards a lot of the time, and not caring whether they lose because there's another freeroll in less than an hour. Play for play money on any poker site and you'll see the same thing over and over.
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Great work, getting covered in the Forbes blog!
That's the first I heard of it. I googled for it and found the article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/08/31/bitzino-and-the-dawn-of-provably-fair-casino-gaming/One thing I'd really like to see would be a video screencast on youtube or whatever that walks people like me who are "cryptographically challenged" through your "provably fair" system. You should target it for an audience that is intelligent, yet not specifically trained in high-level math or cryptographic theory. This would be a good step in marketing to traditional online gaming customers and may bring more people into the world of bitcoin.
Did you read https://bitzino.com/about/fair ? If so, is there something in it that's hard to understand? Or is it just that you prefer to watch video than to read? Or are you getting hung up on issues like "what is a hash"? https://techblog.bitzino.com/2012-06-30-provably-fair-shuffling-through-cryptography.html goes into more detail, but I don't know if that's just going to confuse you more, since I've no idea what bit you're having trouble with.
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Results: 2012-Aug-31 09:11am (up to block 196561)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 16455 | 0 (0.00000) | 16126 | 329 | 118.66 | 0.01 | 23.88 | 118.64 | 0.016 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1527 | 0 (0.00000) | 1456 | 71 | 21.83 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 21.83 | 0.008 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2111 | 0 (0.00000) | 2076 | 35 | 24.74 | 0.02 | 3.22 | 24.71 | 0.104 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2188 | 1 (0.00047) | 2144 | 43 | 47.12 | 8.06 | 5.15 | 39.05 | 17.113 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2329 | 1 (0.00044) | 2292 | 36 | 86.14 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 81.90 | 4.927 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5024 | 3 (0.00060) | 5010 | 11 | 372.16 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 68.84 | 81.502 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7276 | 8 (0.00110) | 7246 | 22 | 629.33 | 124.38 | 55.64 | 504.95 | 19.765 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 9058 | 19 (0.00211) | 8984 | 55 | 1569.06 | 1274.61 | 44.25 | 294.45 | 81.234 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9057 | 42 (0.00464) | 9001 | 14 | 1233.27 | 1277.27 | 13.11 | -43.99 | 103.567 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 12498 | 95 (0.00761) | 12394 | 9 | 2445.63 | 1791.86 | 9.35 | 653.77 | 73.268 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 25031 | 367 (0.01467) | 24657 | 7 | 7997.27 | 7371.29 | 1.80 | 625.98 | 92.173 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 12634 | 287 (0.02273) | 12341 | 6 | 4553.21 | 4699.99 | 15.00 | -146.77 | 103.224 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 21497 | 669 (0.03112) | 20825 | 3 | 5376.51 | 4534.83 | 9.24 | 841.68 | 84.345 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 14010 | 656 (0.04685) | 13347 | 7 | 6665.61 | 7978.08 | 24.99 | -1312.46 | 119.690 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 14517 | 901 (0.06208) | 13612 | 4 | 4513.03 | 3980.68 | 31.20 | 532.34 | 88.204 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 19089 | 1800 (0.09437) | 17273 | 16 | 9496.87 | 9575.90 | 7.01 | -79.02 | 100.832 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 73589 | 9051 (0.12303) | 64517 | 21 | 8870.48 | 7773.35 | 0.00 | 1097.12 | 87.632 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 19346 | 3641 (0.18833) | 15692 | 13 | 7770.45 | 7882.33 | 14.50 | -111.87 | 101.440 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 62096 | 15080 (0.24292) | 46997 | 19 | 27964.39 | 28190.14 | 347.79 | -225.75 | 100.807 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 49390 | 18181 (0.36839) | 31171 | 38 | 22588.47 | 22070.58 | 212.63 | 517.88 | 97.707 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 439228 | 214083 (0.48760) | 224971 | 174 | 260417.51 | 258871.21 | 2173.21 | 1546.30 | 99.406 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 165645 | 82516 (0.49861) | 82976 | 153 | 100270.14 | 97458.14 | 1045.21 | 2811.99 | 97.196 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 134208 | 98732 (0.73606) | 35403 | 73 | 129408.30 | 127358.92 | 467.98 | 2049.38 | 98.416 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 8302 | 6610 (0.79658) | 1688 | 4 | 18481.68 | 18362.27 | 400.00 | 119.40 | 99.354 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 6822 | 5834 (0.85630) | 979 | 9 | 7700.95 | 7564.23 | 400.00 | 136.72 | 98.225 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 3302 | 3019 (0.91596) | 277 | 6 | 5063.71 | 5080.43 | 0.00 | -16.71 | 100.330 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 6940 | 6668 (0.97929) | 141 | 131 | 15517.05 | 15240.07 | 239.20 | 276.97 | 98.215 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1107846 | 450334 | 656410 | 1102 | 271502.72 | 263430.76 | 141.40 | 8071.96 | 97.027 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 35323 | 17930 | 17186 | 207 | 377700.98 | 375345.58 | 5418.35 | 2355.40 | 99.376 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1143169 | 468264 | 673596 | 1309 | 649203.71 | 638776.34 | 5559.76 | 10427.36 | 98.394 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 10427.36850934 BTC (1.606%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 575.80767500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 9851.56083434 BTC (1.517%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 3702714 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2110247 (57.0%) Blockchain MB: 1536.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 863.2 (56.2%)
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