On the contrary, I consider the markets to have been much more accommodating than I expected.  $3.00 (much less @2.00) was beyond what I dared to hope for in July (though I had some bid in that range just in case.)  As a consequence of the compliant markets, I hold way more BTC than I ever expected to.

I consider myself to be as bullish as anyone, but I see no problem real problem with a rather extended period of stagnation, demoralization, loss of interest, etc.  I'll just exploit the situation as it occurs and I've got plenty of time.  Of course I run the very real risk of ending up the 'bag holder', but I'm under no illusion that Bitcoin is without risk.

Ho-Lee-Shit!  Look at the 20,000 ask wall at 3.20 on bitcoinity.org!

I'm game (and bored) although I don't have the slightest idea what a 'bollinger band' is, and relatively little interest in finding out.  Plunked on the guitar strings at Tradehill a bit to minimal effect.  If nothing else, maybe it well keep one of the poor sellers trying to use that exchange from getting too demoralized.

The first 4/5 of the OP resonated with me (the last 1/5 I didn't spend a lot of time trying to parse.)  It captured, among other things, why a 'one world' monetary system terrifies me more than just about anything.  It would be exceedingly difficult to break free from such a thing me thinks...Not even another world war would guarantee this outcome.

I do believe that the best way to achieve a relatively favorable (from the perspective of a democratic socialist) distribution of wealth is through fear, strength, and power.  Bitcoin is to me the most promising technology which could help achieve this because it's function is given strength from a majority of the actual users.  If the users are getting a raw deal, they can destroy the system with relative ease.  Ergo, the majority will not be getting to raw a deal...at least vis-a-vis the currency they are using.

Another nice one a few minutes ago.  Since I got bored and tired of waiting for the bears to come through and re-set some of my bids, I got some more coin at like 10% under Mt. Gox prices or some such.  Thanks, however you are (especially if we end up not seeing another plunge.)

I finally got fed up and sick of missing the Tradehill fat-finger downdrafts and re-set one of my mid-$2.00 bids to North of $3.00.  Part of this is because I am rapidly losing confidence in the bears ability to claw down through even $3.00 again.  I've a few 'Kool-Aid-man' class bulls recently but not many bears of that caliber.

Normally I am rewarded for sitting tight and burnt when I get impatient.  But we've been in a bear market since I've been interested so that makes some sense.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBeUGqeYsQg

No problem.  Why don't you do the right thing again and short?  Ever heard of Bitcoinica?

Ummm...the Central what?

In a debt-based monetary system, money is created when someone takes on debt.


Lehman ran out the ability to take on debt.  So did almost everyone except the tax payers who have no choice in the matter.  Shit-canning the FASB accounting rules and ballooning the federal deficits are band-aids for the issue.  If we can control the energy resources going to China and force them to take on our debt, we could possible string things out for some time.  We are probably going to need to take Iran pretty soon though.

That's my take on things at least.

It seems quite feasible to obtain a 'days worth', particularly since the number which constitutes a day's production steadily declines.  Amazingly so all things considered (IMHO.)  I'd rather have a day's worth of BTC than a new automobile, but I've got unusual tastes I suppose.

What I am hoping for is that a HUGE player wants to cash out and is just waiting for some serious coin to be put in up the $3.00 range before making a monster move.

More an more I want to see some sub-$2.00 coin so I can burn off some more of my USD sitting (at risk) in the hands of an exchange.  This is turning out to be a pretty sucky down-leg...we've not even gotten below $3.00    Where's Nagle to cheer up my flagging spirits?

People like you are what makes Tradehill a great place to accumulate BTC.  I've gotten many orders in at well below 'spot' price.  Unhappily, most of these are currently underwater anyway.

This 'problem' was significant enough some months ago to where I started to write a very primitive bot to capitalize on it.  But both the phenomenon and my interest dried up before I did anything substantive.  The phenomenon seems to have re-emerged recently, but not my interest.

I would and do like to see some amount of impulse driving development of these 'dark grey' modes of operation.  OTOH, I also like the warm fuzzy safety of 'mainstream' exchanges and it is the primary method I use to obtain BTC at this time.


It is my nature to try to step back and ask myself 'so what'?  When I do so here, I see some legitimate arguments that such a scenerio is actually just fine for some of the following reasons:

 - less motivation to attack the system by those who might find it to be competition.

 - more time for the system to be field tested and hardened.

 - more of the currency base likely to be sucked up by people with a general interest vs. those trying to make a quick buck.

 - participants less likely to be ripped off (as they would tend to be more knowledgeable.)

I've not invested anything that I cannot afford to lose, and my expectation for a pay-off for this (or most of my other 'investments') is measured in years or decades.  This probably shapes my philosophy and makes it differ from your run-of-the-mill day-trader.


I'm optimistic enough to hold the BTC I have and probably to accumulate more as the opportunities present themselves, and to put some effort into certain developments associated with Bitcoin.  If it goes well and everything is rosy trading chips between official debt-based systems and Bitcoin, great.  If there are problems in this area, Bitcoin may do OK anyway.  I still consider the most likely scenerio as one being where Bitcoin fails completely for one of a number of possible reasons.  I'm prepared for that, but am also prepared to fight against that happening.

Might have been a year rather than 9 months, but I cannot remember so I went 'conservative'.  I always start by building such things from source which is usually a bit of an undertaking for things which are only tested on Linux, and was pre-occupied with other things so I did not pursue Bitcoin at the time and it fell off my radar.  I would feel pretty bad about it, but I suspect I would not have sold a substantial portion at the peak and would be about where I am now anyway even if I would have gotten heavily into it near the start of 2011.  But one never knows.  One way or another I am confident that I would NOT have lost anything to MyBitcoin no matter what the circumstances.

I could barely imagine a way to attain more hassle for less reward than trying to start a Bitcoin exchange at this point in time.  Only if Mt. Gox completely crashed and burned could they hope to get enough business to pay for much more than power, and that is even if they did things perfectly.

My main hope for Ruxum was that they were going to cater to some wealthy tax cheating and/or hard core market manipulating buddies of theirs, or clients who wanted to move funds back and forth from West to East, but the Bitcoin system never grew large enough for that to be very practicable.

Looks like the .323 version vs. .324 which is increasing (which is unfortunate as the former has some significant defects as I understand things.)

The only thing I can think of is that there is not much new interested and some demoralized 'old timers' heard about the price nearly doubling from it's low and fired back up to sell off.  This feels to me like a weak hypothesis though.

More and more this whole 'go mainstream' thing reminds me of Jemima Puddle Duck:

  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tale_of_Jemima_Puddle-Duck

...where Bitcoin is Jemima...

If I felt that that was a requirement (vs. a nice-to-have), I would consider Bitcoin to be walking dead.  Any maybe it is.  Who knows?

I agree that USD seem like a bad idea and recent history shows us as much.  I would council Occupy-X to use PM's rather than BTC to store value though, and divided between a number of trustworthy participants to avoid a single point of failure.  BTC is quite volatile (in terms of both value and legal standing).  PM's can be converted to cash or BTC as needed.

I put a good percentage of my outlook for Bitcoin on 'need'.

Right now there really is not much need for Bitcoin because, for all intents and purposes, the USD, EURO, etc are actually working fine for Joe Sixpack.  There is a limited (but not zero) need for some of the properties that BTC has which, I hope, will sustain the system for the time being.

The best case scenario is that the USD, EURO, etc will never have any problems and it will be blue skies forever.  I personally find that unlikely...our state sponsored monetary systems 'feel' to me like an airplane which is near stall speed (though I've been thinking that for a decade now...)  If there are problems I could see Bitcoin being a very useful thing to have in one's back pocket.

Actually perhaps Zhoutong see's the utility of having mb-air around.  Contracting professional QA would probably cost more and be less effective.