I just noticed you have a twitter account.

It says:


Which is inaccurate in a couple of ways.

You're right.  It seems counter-intuitive to me that flipping three heads in a row (a 1-in-8 shot) takes an expected 14 flips to happen, but it does.

Because the average length of a round which ends when we either flip a tail or get 3 heads:

T : half the time
HT : 1/4 the time
HHT : 1/8 the time
HHH : 1/8 the time

is 1*1/2 + 2*1/4 + 3*1/8 + 3*1/8 = 1.75 tosses - so the expectation is that it takes 1.75*8 = 14 flips.

Thanks for persevering with me!

Where are you getting 5 BTC from?  OK, it's 1% of 500 BTC - but where does the 1% come from?

Kind of ugly still, but better than what you're doing:

What if you only have one customer.  He deposits 1 BTC and shorts at 10x leverage.  Then the price of Bitcoin drops by a factor of 10 and he closes his position.

His balance is now 100 BTC.  Where do you get the coins from to pay him?

Is that 'exactly' where we are differing?  The guy didn't have exactly 75 losses and then a win.  He had 75 losses and quit playing.  Who knows how many losses he would have had if he had kept playing.

I think we expect at least 10 heads in a row once every 1024 flips.

(exactly 11 heads is half as likely as exactly 10, exactly 12 is half as likely again,etc.  1/2 + 1/4 + ... = 1.  ie. the chance of seeing exactly 10 is the same as the chance of seeing 11 or more.  I see exactly 10 once every 2048 flips, I see 11 or more once every 2048 flips too.  Combining these 2, I see 10 or more every 1024 flips.

Maybe they've been running a ponzi scheme and for some reason need to cash out quickly.

How about this? Let's say Halloween (October 31st). I'll buy 50 BTC at $5.50 each on that day from you.

Deal?

Chicken?

Troll?

Chicken Troll?

 

Here's the simulation code:

They have 3 new bets, too: under 52000, under 56000, and under 60000.

I'm not sure, but I don't think you should multiply by 75.  Maybe add (75-1).

Consider flipping a fair coin.  How many times do you need to flip before it is 'likely' to get 10 heads in a row?

It's a 1-in-1024 chance, so I would say you need to flip 1024 + (10-1) = 1033 coins to have a reasonable chance of 310 heads in a row.

By your (implied) logic would you say you need 1024*10 = 10240 flips to make it likely?

I just ran a simulation.  Flipping coins until getting 10 in a row, and counting how many flips it took.  I tried it 100,000 times.  116 (0.12%) of those times the first 10 coins were all heads.  To have a 1% chance of getting 10 heads in a row I had to flip 29 times.  For 10% I had to flip 221 coins, etc.  Flipping 1033 coins gives a 39.71% chance of getting 10 heads in a row.

But flipping 10239 coins gives a huge 99.34% chance.

I have a feeling this is a binomial distribution thing, so I should be able to work out the maths rather than doing it by simulation.  But I think that after 17399 * 75 plays you're almost guaranteed to have a losing streak of 75 or more.

Oh, and the analysis I'm posting is based on work done by etotheipi - the OP in this thread.  But I'm glad you appreciate it.

3 new games have been introduced: lessthan 52k, 56k, and 60k:

payb.tc keeps 1.43% of all the interest his members earn.  Doesn't he?

Maybe it's just a language issue.  I would say "keeping 1% of all interest" rather than "making 1% on all interest".

I don't like how one bar's 'close' is often different than the following bar's 'open'.  It looks like the value used for 'open' and 'close' are the first and last trades in that bar, whereas traditionally the 'open' price would be the last trade in the previous bar.

Maybe he was referring to how payb.tc keeps 0.1% of the 7% interest.

0.1 is 1.43% of 7.0

ie. payb.tc keeps 1.43% of the interest.

I finally got a crash from the version I built with debugging symbols.  Here's the backtrace:


I'll leave the gdb session running, so if there are any commands you want me to type at it, I can do so.

strmPtr=0x4 doesn't look good though.  Pointers usually have high values, not 4...

waspoza seemed to be missing the point.

It probably takes a long time to restart, breaking things while it's down.

So why would you do that?  Why not just buy them for $9 each right now and save yourself $100?

I think the point of buying futures is that you're buying an option to trade at a certain price in the future, but are not obliged to do so.

Temporarily set HOME to wherever you want it to read the blockchain from:


I doubt the parser made any blockchain files.  It opens the files readonly, which won't create any files.

About a week ago the blockchain file grew bigger than 2GB and so a 2nd file was created by bitcoin-qt:


I don't know where the 0003 file came from though!