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10761

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: July 15, 2012, 06:22:38 AM

Quote from: unclemantis on July 14, 2012, 05:40:31 PM Tried it a few times last night. Even picked the higher numbers. Lost every time. What is the pick range of the magic number? It's 0 through 65535 inclusive. So when you play "lessthan 48000" you should win 73.2% of the time, and when you play "lessthan 64000" you should win 97.6% of the time. I played lessthan 48000 3 times yesterday and only won once (luckily biggest of the 3 bets was the one that won). But the games are proveably fair - you can get the secret number they used to pick your magic number and validate that they did the maths correctly. One guy was saying he lost over 60 "lessthan 8000" games in a row the other day, so long losing streaks are definitely possible, just very unlikely.

10762

Economy / Gambling / Re: bitZino - HTML5 Bitcoin Casino - Provably Fair

on: July 15, 2012, 06:15:14 AM

I love how responsive you are to user feedback.

10763

Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment]

on: July 14, 2012, 09:05:40 AM

Quote from: Otoh on July 14, 2012, 09:02:18 AM lol Al the Alpaca added 0.0011 BTC rkj added 0.0005 BTC NothinG added 0.0095 PatrickHarnett taxed 0.0101 fatigue added 0.013 BTC adamstgBit taxed 0.005 Gladamas added 0.0315 phantitox taxed 0.0395 Otoh added 0.01010101 [Tycho] added 1.07801714 Scott J added 0.0188185 honest bob added 0.0001337 ... assuming I picked out the correct transactions. I may have made mistakes.

10764

Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory - Discussion Thread

on: July 14, 2012, 07:02:59 AM

Quote from: etotheipi on July 14, 2012, 05:18:58 AM I don't mean that they prefer to copy and paste manually, but that they prefer to know what page/URL they are supposed to go to, and can enter it manually if they want. Right. If I see a link I'm suspicious of clicking on, I'll often right-click it, copy, then paste into the browser bar and inspect it before hitting return. If that's an option with your link then there's no need to write out the URL as well for them - they can just right-click and 'copy link' the same way they would with any other link they wanted to be sure about.

10765

Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment]

on: July 14, 2012, 06:45:54 AM

Quote from: giszmo on July 14, 2012, 03:37:08 AM Who calculated the total fees paid so far? I did. It's 0.0435 BTC: 2012-07-11 01:58:39 1 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 1 #2 Garr255 189JHV6KPzvnPmjYCGPbvMMmZUWppere7h 2012-07-11 02:07:23 1 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 2 #3 the joint 17EVRSvdPJGhk7uKHCpY9ghnWnx7j3pPAs 2012-07-11 02:08:41 1 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 3 #4 sadpandatech 13YmfB6TeLzyCdnwsVZ5MdYVCLnfm5eNGF 2012-07-11 02:17:00 1 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 4 #5 nimda 1KiZGitw2zEr4uPzZsT7dh7F6e5yoKGvE7 2012-07-11 02:34:16 1 BTC (fee = 0.001 BTC) 5 #6 Al the Alpaca 1EWRJ5BeibZxMguujPLzqM8WWiHpFJtLLx 2012-07-11 02:55:11 1.0011 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 6 #19 pirateat40 1CR5BadHQt8wd4t98mE4rw9hUfSGQ4ZGDg 2012-07-11 02:58:12 1.0011 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 7 #20 rjk 17qypELtTKqr716m937wLWbapnFG6i4fyZ 2012-07-11 03:09:42 1.0006 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 8 #21 NothinG 1BjMLLGrwYk3hrcnSqEUEeGchkx9tiykfY 2012-07-11 03:47:36 1.0101 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 9 #27 PatrickHarnett 1KwECAhJGr8BPGgn6mezf5Z3jT7vG1HaAZ 2012-07-11 04:01:49 1 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 10 #32 pekv2 12NcNYb2oEh6ANo95AakEjPqQdgbcxh4m9 2012-07-11 04:14:25 1 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 11 #34 unclemantis 12kM9BocNb5zSG7RMKp9wPxopK5NpayrMZ 2012-07-11 14:39:05 1 BTC (fee = 0.002 BTC) 12 #39 mb300sd 1HVmv5EtQZtcsFfXe6Crz972BrB1MwsNCM 2012-07-11 16:33:35 1 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 13 #44 rudrigorc2 1MSPwixhqiwMLXxw3WXtNjg2nst6qVWhCX 2012-07-12 02:58:38 1 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 14 #49 Brunic 16Hz2xA4NmAp4CU3Mr9aJy8H9D5XqXupHG 2012-07-12 03:54:41 1 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 15 #52 fatigue 1Fj4QZbavJeKfagjDqUPFqQ4iJ4bHqFAMG 2012-07-12 05:15:43 1.013 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 16 #88 Phraust 15UJrPbxd6ULPJaxASUoWUp6xc473T7mww 2012-07-12 06:18:20 1.013 BTC (fee = 0.01 BTC) 17 #89 adamstgBit 15nutdfqcS38hXdZoL7LNz5wBt8Aq4wCUT 2012-07-12 07:29:35 1.008 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 18 #90 bluefirecorp 1PsQ8qFp6ZY94gXvFLP4cqcmoLQSDCqLJc 2012-07-12 07:30:56 1.008 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 19 #91 Drakahn 1C1UMHsdPxgsWGWBhdaTC47kibJjFgWnhb 2012-07-12 07:46:43 1.008 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 20 #92 Gladamas 1FVySmZNZ6LUvz1mKkt9zgRWjBzvkM4Roh 2012-07-12 16:03:50 1.0395 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 21 #93 phantitox 1GtGFJskG47Q6Q1NFsfMLWfNV9ivabbyab 2012-07-12 21:06:54 1 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 22 #98 John (johnthedong) 1Cm2ymVqiHA42jv31rtyze684oWTDkreza 2012-07-12 23:29:08 1 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 23 #107 Keefe 1BZy1xxwcxQyRZErcYUFke72TSU7cV5Ptf 2012-07-13 02:38:11 1 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 24 #110 Otoh 1G5apmPvo2iTtmkNWAHTCET7Y842Ufijs8 2012-07-13 08:00:11 1.01010101 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 25 #75 [Tycho] 1VayNert3x1KzbpzMGt2qdqrAThiRovi8 2012-07-13 09:02:36 2.08811815 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 26 #67 Dalkore 12SSYCcvaHadm8Myxb3mUTzyv96VNhyzeZ 2012-07-13 14:56:41 2.08811815 BTC (fee = 0.01 BTC) 27 #133 payb.tc 14no5MUE4ur2gyyEE3BHpHhV82gKm8NLbH 2012-07-13 15:05:57 2.08811815 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 28 #115 damnek 17xbiU6EWdaf74rmwxPv9AQZc1MeKMWh5n 2012-07-13 16:32:44 2.08811815 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 29 #117 Tril 1Xgeo7EQgrk22paxmKVrhNVSmauczL6EE 2012-07-13 19:43:35 2.07811815 BTC (fee = 0.01 BTC) 30 #118 Scott J 18UVSvCAb6QGjPSdiXxveeu56ujmu3kTt4 2012-07-13 20:36:33 2.08 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 31 #140 honest bob 14x3n2ntSAGN4gGvGoLhi6NbUuuoWwvfdL 2012-07-13 20:44:19 2.0801337 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 32 #143 giszmo 1KLYFWyv5aeci2PwJQs9aTRN1JRzDDL96o 2012-07-13 21:50:37 2.0801337 BTC (fee = 0.0005 BTC) 33 #145 arklan 1F4j4Lha8BjL4wxwFVbGaQwMJ4Kd1brfXb 2012-07-13 22:56:41 2.0801337 BTC (fee = 0.001 BTC) 34 #159 dooglus 1BooBz2AEwUd6JepB7NhNsnAe58Q6obpcu 2012-07-13 23:23:42 2.0801337 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 35 #160 riX 155gBnpiBQcpnP6coTX6V7znSK3G73uNjK 2012-07-13 23:41:53 2.0801337 BTC (fee = 0 BTC) 36 #175 RyNinDaCleM 1Bgi9fX1TD9cnuzBvWGLfm7D7sNVEq96UU ... 101 #1 Return to Sender 18dktRf1EYbyaYTkSSZJiacBmCemxwWdqm

10766

Economy / Web Wallets / Re: Blockchain.info - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics

on: July 14, 2012, 05:09:25 AM

Quote from: rjk on July 14, 2012, 03:41:25 AM At the bottom of the page, there is a link to enable advanced functionality. I'm not sure of a way to make it permanent. That's great, thanks. I hadn't noticed that. I use a chrome 'search engine' to open blockchain.info at particular transactions. The string I now use is: http://blockchain.info/search?search=%s&show_adv=true which seems to automatically turn advanced mode on each time.

10767

Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory - Discussion Thread

on: July 14, 2012, 05:03:21 AM

Quote from: etotheipi on July 13, 2012, 07:27:35 PM I included the URL because many users would prefer to copy and paste Is "right-click > copy link" an option?

10768

Economy / Web Wallets / Re: Blockchain.info - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics

on: July 14, 2012, 03:36:43 AM

Apologies if this has been addressed already, but the transaction pages seem to be a lot less detailed than they used to be. I used to be able to see the value of each input to a transaction as well as being able to see which outputs have been redeemed. Also there were links on each input and output linking to the previous and next transaction in the chain - so I could easily go from an input to the transaction which the input came from. Is there some way of getting the fuller-featured transaction pages back again?

10769

Economy / Gambling / Re: [ANN] BTCDice.com - The Best Bitcoin Game in the World! - Better Payouts

on: July 14, 2012, 02:35:35 AM

And here are the correct payouts to make the house edge really be 2%: Quote edge=0.98; max=65536; lose=0.005 for n in 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1000,1500,2000,3000, \ 4000,6000,8000,12000,16000,24000,32000,32768,48000: print "%5d %9.3fx" % (n, (maxedge - lose(max-n)) / n) 1 63897.605x 2 31948.805x 4 15974.405x 8 7987.205x 16 3993.605x 32 1996.805x 64 998.405x 128 499.205x 256 249.605x 512 124.805x 1000 63.903x 1500 42.603x 2000 31.954x 3000 21.304x 4000 15.979x 6000 10.655x 8000 7.992x 12000 5.330x 16000 3.999x 24000 2.667x 32000 2.002x 32768 1.955x 48000 1.336x

10770

Economy / Gambling / Re: [ANN] BTCDice.com - The Best Bitcoin Game in the World! - Better Payouts

on: July 14, 2012, 02:30:13 AM

I don't know if I should be telling you this or not, but you calculated your payouts wrongly. In some of the games your house edge is negative. You made 2 mistakes: 1) you pay out 0.5% on losing bets, which you don't take into consideration 2) you need to multiply by 0.98, not subtract 0.04 to get a 2% house edge Look at your "lessthan 2" bet for instance. I have a 1-in-32768 chance of winning, and when I win I get 32767.96x. When I lose I get 0.5%. If you ignore the 0.5% for losing, the house edge is 100-(10032767.96/32768) = 0.0001%. But when you take the 0.5% for losing into account too, the house edge goes down to 100-(100(32767.96 + 32767*0.005)/32768) = -0.49986%. ie. you're losing 0.5% of each bet in the long term. Here are the correct house edge details for each bet: Quote under 1 : house edge = 1.844% under 2 : house edge = -0.500% under 4 : house edge = -0.500% under 8 : house edge = -0.499% under 16 : house edge = -0.499% under 32 : house edge = -0.498% under 64 : house edge = -0.496% under 128 : house edge = -0.491% under 256 : house edge = -0.482% under 512 : house edge = -0.465% under 1000 : house edge = -0.431% under 1500 : house edge = -0.398% under 2000 : house edge = -0.363% under 3000 : house edge = -0.292% under 4000 : house edge = -0.225% under 6000 : house edge = -0.091% under 8000 : house edge = 0.049% under 12000 : house edge = 0.330% under 16000 : house edge = 0.599% under 24000 : house edge = 1.136% under 32000 : house edge = 1.697% under 32768 : house edge = 1.750% under 48000 : house edge = 2.820% I only noticed this because of how close your payout on under 48000 is to SatoshiDice's payout.

10771

Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment]

on: July 14, 2012, 02:17:49 AM

Quote from: Garr255 on July 14, 2012, 02:12:50 AM Quote from: luv2drnkbr on July 14, 2012, 02:11:59 AM This thread is a giant circle jerk. Try the experiment with 5 figures worth of BTC and see how long it lasts. BTC20 says < 10 transactions, with the same requirements as this thread. I don't understand what "BTC20 says < 10 transactions" means. But nobody has to trust anyone here except for the first guy. He needs to trust us all. The rest of us never risk anything.

10772

Economy / Marketplace / Re: Introducing... BITNOT.ES... Record and share address labels and other info

on: July 14, 2012, 12:22:54 AM

I was able to access bitnot.es a few days ago, but it no longer resolves for me. Did the domain lapse?

10773

Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment]

on: July 14, 2012, 12:05:25 AM

Quote from: Scott J on July 14, 2012, 12:00:58 AM One more time might do it? It did, but I forgot that I needed to win both the losses back, and only bet enough to win the 6 BTC back, not the original 2 BTC as well. Actually, to win back both losses I would had to bet more than the 25 BTC maximum: >>> (6.4400424 + 2.0801337) / 0.323 26.378254179566564 I think I'll quit while I'm ~~ahead~~ only slightly behind.

10774

Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment]

on: July 14, 2012, 12:00:02 AM

Quote from: Scott J on July 13, 2012, 11:49:52 PM Quote from: dooglus on July 13, 2012, 11:37:11 PM I was hoping to use SD to increase the value of the coin a little and pass on the winnings. Didn't quite work out. Unlucky, it was a nice thought! Yes, but I couldn't lose twice in a row, right? So no harm in attempting to win my losses back... lol

10775

Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment]

on: July 13, 2012, 11:37:11 PM

Quote from: riX on July 13, 2012, 11:33:47 PM Quote from: dooglus on July 13, 2012, 11:30:39 PM I got the coins and bet them on the pretty safe "under 48000" at satoshidice. I lost. Oops. Sent a different 2.0801337 BTC on to riX. Hopefully he won't notice it's not the original bitcoin... It's not the original anyway.. Also, I'm going to bed now, so unless someone signs up within minutes, this will have to wait until at least tomorrow.. I was hoping to use SD to increase the value of the coin a little and pass on the winnings. Didn't quite work out. Someone else did sign up: Quote from: giszmo on July 13, 2012, 09:54:08 PM 1)Garr255 - 189JHV6KPzvnPmjYCGPbvMMmZUWppere7h #2 2)the joint - 17EVRSvdPJGhk7uKHCpY9ghnWnx7j3pPAs #3 3)sadpandatech - 13YmfB6TeLzyCdnwsVZ5MdYVCLnfm5eNGF #4 4)nimda - 1KiZGitw2zEr4uPzZsT7dh7F6e5yoKGvE7 #5 5)Al the Alpaca - 1EWRJ5BeibZxMguujPLzqM8WWiHpFJtLLx #6 6)pirateat40 - 1CR5BadHQt8wd4t98mE4rw9hUfSGQ4ZGDg #19 7)rjk - 17qypELtTKqr716m937wLWbapnFG6i4fyZ #20 8)NothinG - 1BjMLLGrwYk3hrcnSqEUEeGchkx9tiykfY #21 9)PatrickHarnett - 1KwECAhJGr8BPGgn6mezf5Z3jT7vG1HaAZ #27 10)pekv2 - 12NcNYb2oEh6ANo95AakEjPqQdgbcxh4m9 #32 11)unclemantis - 12kM9BocNb5zSG7RMKp9wPxopK5NpayrMZ #34 12)mb300sd - 1HVmv5EtQZtcsFfXe6Crz972BrB1MwsNCM #39 13)rudrigorc2 - 1MSPwixhqiwMLXxw3WXtNjg2nst6qVWhCX #44 14)Brunic - 16Hz2xA4NmAp4CU3Mr9aJy8H9D5XqXupHG #49 15)fatigue - 1Fj4QZbavJeKfagjDqUPFqQ4iJ4bHqFAMG #52 16)Phraust - 15UJrPbxd6ULPJaxASUoWUp6xc473T7mww #88 17)adamstgBit - 15nutdfqcS38hXdZoL7LNz5wBt8Aq4wCUT #89 18)bluefirecorp - 1PsQ8qFp6ZY94gXvFLP4cqcmoLQSDCqLJc #90 19)Drakahn - 1C1UMHsdPxgsWGWBhdaTC47kibJjFgWnhb #91 20)Gladamas - 1FVySmZNZ6LUvz1mKkt9zgRWjBzvkM4Roh #92 21)phantitox - 1GtGFJskG47Q6Q1NFsfMLWfNV9ivabbyab #93 22)John (johnthedong) - 1Cm2ymVqiHA42jv31rtyze684oWTDkreza (instawallet addy, DON't REUSE) #98 23)Keefe - 1BZy1xxwcxQyRZErcYUFke72TSU7cV5Ptf #107 24)Otoh - 1G5apmPvo2iTtmkNWAHTCET7Y842Ufijs8 #110 25)[Tycho] - 1VayNert3x1KzbpzMGt2qdqrAThiRovi8 (please provide TX hash when sending) (tx) #75 26)Dalkore - 12SSYCcvaHadm8Myxb3mUTzyv96VNhyzeZ #67 27)payb.tc - 14no5MUE4ur2gyyEE3BHpHhV82gKm8NLbH #133 28)damnek - 17xbiU6EWdaf74rmwxPv9AQZc1MeKMWh5n #115 29)Tril - 1Xgeo7EQgrk22paxmKVrhNVSmauczL6EE #117 30)Scott J - 18UVSvCAb6QGjPSdiXxveeu56ujmu3kTt4 #118 31)honest bob - 14x3n2ntSAGN4gGvGoLhi6NbUuuoWwvfdL #140 32)giszmo - 1KLYFWyv5aeci2PwJQs9aTRN1JRzDDL96o #143 33)arklan - 1F4j4Lha8BjL4wxwFVbGaQwMJ4Kd1brfXb #145 34)dooglus - 1BooBz2AEwUd6JepB7NhNsnAe58Q6obpcu #159 35)riX - 155gBnpiBQcpnP6coTX6V7znSK3G73uNjK #160 - has the coin(s) 36)RyNinDaCleM - 1Bgi9fX1TD9cnuzBvWGLfm7D7sNVEq96UU #175 ... 101) Return to Sender - 18dktRf1EYbyaYTkSSZJiacBmCemxwWdqm #1

10776

Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment]

on: July 13, 2012, 11:30:39 PM

I got the coins and bet them on the pretty safe "under 48000" at satoshidice. I lost. Oops. Sent a different 2.0801337 BTC on to riX. Hopefully he won't notice it's not the original bitcoin...

10777

Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment]

on: July 13, 2012, 08:40:09 PM

Looks to me like the coins have got as far as honest bob now. http://blockchain.info/tx-index/12100720/4fc2713a9d4f823cc68b564f3be392758a94d3a3819ad8637494923e74292031

10778

Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.

on: July 13, 2012, 07:57:31 PM

Quote from: imsaguy on July 13, 2012, 07:26:36 PM Quote from: dooglus on July 13, 2012, 07:08:40 PM Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments? People have a singular withdrawal address. If you request a withdrawal, it appears just like an interest payment. That makes sense, but what I asked is whether withdrawals and interest appear in the same transaction.

10779

Economy / Long-term offers / Re: [BitcoinMax.com] Paying 6.9% per week... Small accounts welcome.

on: July 13, 2012, 07:14:00 PM

Quote from: Scott J on July 13, 2012, 06:51:26 PM I really hope withdrawal requests never come online/become automated. I'm happy to wait a day or two. This isn't about automatic withdrawals. It's about me getting into your bitcointalk account and sending a PM to payb.tc that says "please change my withdrawal address to 1dooglus123456 and send me all Scott's monies please herp derp".

10780

Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.

on: July 13, 2012, 07:08:40 PM

Quote from: imsaguy on July 13, 2012, 06:57:32 PM Quote from: dooglus on July 13, 2012, 06:55:30 PM Quote from: imsaguy on July 13, 2012, 06:18:22 PM Quote from: Maged on July 13, 2012, 01:23:01 PM Quote from: hgmichna on July 13, 2012, 11:59:19 AM What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments? Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more. So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out? Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing. I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment. It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week. Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC. Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this. How do you account for the people that ask for withdrawals timed with the interest payments? That will artificially inflate their interest payment by a factor of 7. Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments?

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