I'll contact nefario about that  cool And I can confirm that glbse isn't currently working...
yep, me too. |
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Don't get me wrong. I check your predictions regularly. Very helpful and interesting with all these drawn lines and such. Just pointing to the fact that there are probably more than a few variables that are beyond a technical analysis. Thefts for example and unpredictable reactions of the market. Perhaps if one could factor in a bit of chaos theory?!
That's like factoring in a bit of "uncertainty" into preditcting roulette numbers. |
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it's been a while, but it seems glbse is down again ;|
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i am a full time ETF trader, so please contact me if you have questions :-D This is what I like most about bitcoins, we have enough expertise here to start a central bank for some poor african nation. In a sense we (satoshi) already started "the peoples' central bank", no? |
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i have to say i see it quite differently.
i think it was a very poor talk. all she did was give a superficial historical review with a heavy slant towards the negative events over the last year including her own mishap with MyBitcoin. she showed no understanding of the economics behind why Bitcoin was created or how it fits into the financial crisis of the last 4 years. she even had the gall to say she understood Bitcoin better than most ppl in a previous video interview with that other supposed financial expert who's name escapes me. David Birch.
its high time we get someone who is articulate and has a deep understanding of the corrupt financial world into which Bitcoin is trying to insert a viable solution.
if i were to give a talk on Bitcoin i would spend 75% of the talk emphasizing the mess we're in with central banks printing money all over the world in an attempt to stop the debt deleveraging deflationary spiral. i would throw up pictures of M2 and debt/GDP ratio and how they started their upward parabolic moves in the 1970's when we went off the gold standard. i would then throw up a graph of the asymptotic Bitcoin issuance curve contrasting their shapes. i would talk about how gold has always been real money backing fiat paper and how Bitcoin is digital gold. i would put up a 100 yr graph of the declining value of the USD and overlay that on top of the Dow and debt levels. i would throw up a non log graph of the last 100 yrs in the Dow and show how we have peaked and are in a frightening massive head and shoulders formation over the last 12 years with a projected line straight down the shoot over the next decade. i would throw up a graph showing how Obama has doubled the national debt in just 3 yrs. i would throw up a graph of declining housing prices and how this correlates with decreasing household wealth. i would go over the 2007-08 crisis and how it began and why. i would explain how Geithner, Bernanke and Hank Paulson broke the rule of law and bailed out crony banking institutions and AIG. i would emphasize that not one banker who caused this whole mess has gone to prison. i would explain that 0.01% of the US population owns a counterfeiting ring that only they can tap into and every USD they print devalues the other 99.99% of the populations's USD's. i would throw up a graph showing why this very phenomenon has resulted in the tremendous wealth disparity of these ppl to the rest of us. i would go over the European sovereign debt issue and explain that banks all over the world dumped their bad debts onto gov'ts and are pushing them into default as we speak.
for the rest of the 25% talk i would only insert the basics of Bitcoin into key selected points staying away from the technical side and showing just why Bitcoin would solve a particular problem.
this is just off the top of my head. sorry for the rant but listening to her made me puke.
good outline of a talk to motivate people on bitcoin. I dont think I agree on the part where you stay away from the technicals. I really think it is necessary (if you want to see people trust the blockchain) to explain how the "public ledger" works and how you have a key that enables spending the outputs of transactions (Adrianna totally fails on this one and it was painful to see her agree on the host saying: "so it's just a string of character that can't be copied?"). I'd explain that there are some bitcoins that exist "only in my brain" (in the form of a electrum wallet seed). Put up the address and say: "you can send bitcoins to this address, which can then only be spent by using a key that exists only in my brain" (point to head with finger). Something like that. There's no simplifying this and it really isn't that complicated. What's so hard to understand about needing a key that enables spending money sent to an address linked to that key? I like your spin on elaborating on the current (and historical) problems with FIAT currency and maybe the inevitable revival of market-based commodity money (I specifically include bitcoin here, of course), because frankly, this is what sold bitcoin to me. Remember the first time you grasped satoshis idea (blockchain, proof of work) and the implications this could have? I was clearly in some sort of a heightened state for days, even weeks, rambling on about this revolutionary idea that would change the world to my friends. An ideal talk about bitcoin would instill exactly that in people and I think your idea of emphasizing the problems bitcoin solves is good. Let's see (hopefully) how Bill Barhydt does with his "TED2012 Full Spectrum" talk on bitcoin |
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« Don't get me started on "money laundering." It's a completely artificial crime. It wasn't even heard of 20 years ago, because the "crime" didn't exist. Now, everyone speaks of it as though it were a real crime, like murder. It's ridiculous, and further proof of the totally degraded state of the average person worldwide, absolutely including US citizens – what we used to call Americans. The government proclaims something as a law, and "sheeple" robotically assume it's part of the cosmic firmament. If an official tells them to do or not to do something, they roll over on their backs like whipped dogs and wet themselves out of fear. The War on Drugs may be where "money laundering" originated as a crime, but today it has a lot more to do with something infinitely more important to the state: the War on Tax Evasion. »
Oh their god, this is a marvelous quote!
he forgot to mention the war on child porn... that's what takes away a large chunk of our freedoms these days. maybe that's too touchy a subject even for casey. no man in his right mind would touch that with a ten foot pole. What does that mean? You support violence on people for having or sharing information about crimes committed by others or you don't support that violence, but don't want to say? What I had in mind (and I think also paybt.c had this in mind) was that saying things like: "look, child pornography is used as an excuse to sneak in all kinds of liberty-reducing laws and regulations" is very dangerous because your "enemies" can then easily say stuff like: "look, this scumbag is promoting child pornography". You're making yourself an easy target. For example there has been lengthy discussions a while back in germany about dns censoring using a secret blacklist. It was specifically argued by the proponents that this was to "stop child porn" (of course the real motivation was likely quite different). Opponents argued (rightfully as I think) that such a secret list would be a slippery slope to other types of censoring (even politically motivated). It's very dangerous for a public figure to argue "We can't introduce mechanisms to enable censoring child pornography" because that can destroy your public image easily. That's what I was getting at by saying "no man in his right mind would touch that with a ten foot pole." |
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how do you calculate the NAV of the ETF? is there a pricing bot in the background monitoring prices? this also relates to the question of creating more "shares" - if you were to always determine the correct price of the ETF, you should ALWAYS be able to issue more shares without decreasing current investors' profits. I'm not sure the liquidity is sufficient for a price determined by a bot to be meaningful enough. if liquidity is bad, an ETF is equally bad. since you're both issuer AND market maker here, calculating the price is REALLY easy. bid and ask price of the ETF should reflect that. it should also reflect that if I buy 1 M.ETF at whatever price, I should exactly know what I own (ie the NAV and the constituents of the ETF should be disclosed once each day at noo CST or whatever). the NAV should be the middle of the spread. so if I buy 1 M.ETF @ 2BTC, you should immediately put x% of that into asset A, y% into asset B etc etc. if you cannot, you should always be ahead of the market so that only 80% or so of the ETF are in circulation. I wouldnt want me buying 100BTC worth of M.ETF disrupting the market of some poor mining stock because there's not enough on the ask side. i am a full time ETF trader, so please contact me if you have questions :-D It sure sounds to me like you'd be someone who could run an ETF to high standards... have you considered that? |
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I chipped in 5 BTC (which I want back) for the GLBSE setup. what's the status, can't wait to buy some shares and get the first order going  |
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how do you calculate the NAV of the ETF? is there a pricing bot in the background monitoring prices? this also relates to the question of creating more "shares" - if you were to always determine the correct price of the ETF, you should ALWAYS be able to issue more shares without decreasing current investors' profits. I'm not sure the liquidity is sufficient for a price determined by a bot to be meaningful enough. |
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My guess is still after Dec 15th but who knows Anyway we can more or less be sure it is within a few weeks before Dec 9th and a few weeks after. Update on that calculation since we are exactly nine months from the target date on the bet: - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=312With block height of 170,390 reached, doing the math that gives us 275 days left, so still on target for December 9th as the day block 210,000 will be reached. What is certain is that the number of bitcoins issued each day will be cut in half. Meaning if miners are generating $36K worth of bitcoins on December 8th, then the drop occurs, then starting on December 9th they will generate $18K worth of bitcoins -- though there would be some fluctuations in price that might cause those numbers to vary but essentially it will be a sudden 50%-ish drop in revenue. Assuming all mined coins are immediately sold on the market, there would also be a sudden drop of "supply" on the exchange markets. A sudden 50% drop of supply given constant demand would surely drive the price up quite a bit. Of course the market will react even before the fact in anticipation, driving price up, in turn making mining more profitable again even before the drop. So my argument is that the 50% drop in mining income (measured in BTC) will not result in a 50% drop in USD-denominated revenue for this reason (higher price) Also miners are likely to reduce the percentage of BTC they throw directly onto the markets, but hold on to them (or a part of them) in anticipation of being able to sell at a better price after the supply drop. So this is another factor that puts upward pressure on the price before the fact. I actually think there might not be that much happening on the date. Most of the action and adjustments will be happening beforehand in anticipation, starting in late summer, maybe even earlier. I, for one, am already holding on to my bitcoins a lot harder I still have no leaning as to which outcome is more likely. Tell me what the exchange rate will be and the number of FPGA units that will be sold over the next half year and the difficulty level at a future date becomes easier to predict.
Well, the exchange rate is part of the game, so you must include that in your set of values to predict I'm leaning towards an earlier date because I'm assuming an increasingly bullish market toward block 210000 which will result in mining power increase. As for miners selling their hardware: I kind of doubt they will do that in the 1-2 months before the drop. They might sell now or in early summer, but after that, it's just too tempting to keep things running at least until the drop. Most rigs are probably payed off anyways and gaming is always an option |
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How do I get a torrent file to see what your site says about it, cost wise, from a magnet link..
Im using pirate bay for instance...
magnet link support has been requested as a feature a couple posts above. I think currently you'll have to resort to findin a torrent file or link to one ;| |
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may I suggest to pay dividends on mondays (if you're going for weekly). given that most of the underlying companies have their payday on sunday, that might make sense?
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Do you really think that the server is so overloaded that 40 KB/s is "normal"? As we discussed on page 3 of this thread, it's more likely the distance to the server that's causing the bottleneck. I'm not going to apologize for using a download manager when I'm not causing any adverse effects to other users.
I'm sorry, I didn't expect you to apologize. I don't care much about wether you do or not. I re-read page 3 and I can't find discussion of why the distance to the server could cause slowdown in bandwidth. Can you explain this to me? I don't understand how latency could limit bandwidth, since I already downloaded large files at 10 mbit (max of the connection) through a satellite link with 500ms latency using only 1 http connection. Also just tried another large dl from bitcointorrentz at 577kB/s (about 50% of my bandwidth). Will try multi-connection download next with another file. |
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I made a "comment"-thread meant to accompany this famous thread. It's meant to be used for comments on items in here that don't merit their own thread. So, if you like this idea and have a comment on stuff in this thread, feel free to pollute this thread instead: " [COMMENTS] Bitcoin press hits, notable sources" ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=67873.0) |
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« Don't get me started on "money laundering." It's a completely artificial crime. It wasn't even heard of 20 years ago, because the "crime" didn't exist. Now, everyone speaks of it as though it were a real crime, like murder. It's ridiculous, and further proof of the totally degraded state of the average person worldwide, absolutely including US citizens – what we used to call Americans. The government proclaims something as a law, and "sheeple" robotically assume it's part of the cosmic firmament. If an official tells them to do or not to do something, they roll over on their backs like whipped dogs and wet themselves out of fear. The War on Drugs may be where "money laundering" originated as a crime, but today it has a lot more to do with something infinitely more important to the state: the War on Tax Evasion. »
Oh their god, this is a marvelous quote!
he forgot to mention the war on child porn... that's what takes away a large chunk of our freedoms these days. maybe that's too touchy a subject even for casey. no man in his right mind would touch that with a ten foot pole. |
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enough is enough. for the third time today I had a short comment written on one of the Press Hits from the thread "Bitcoin press hits, notable sources" ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1958.0) and then cancelled it because I didn't want to pollute the thread with my comment that really didn't add much and was certainly not a press hit in itself . Also often a Press hit plus maybe a couple of comments really don't justify opening a new topic, so I figured I'd try making a comments thread accompanying the famous mother-thread. Let's see if it works, I'll make a start by commenting on a comment from the thread in the next post... |
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"and later tonight, I can show you my precious bits!"
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1) that's what I thought
2) 0.25 eurocents per kwh, 0.20 if you get lucky.
3) he probably does, but whats more important is that there apply about 200 USD in customs taxes which he'll have to pay too.
to be honest - when I bought my bitforces, I purchased a cheap flight to Florida as well, because it was way cheaper to get them delivered to a US street address and then smuggle them back home.
really, you did that? That must've felt pretty weird. Imagine customs checking your luggage... customs1: "dude, what is that?!?" customs2: "looks like some strange hardware to me." customs1: "hey, traveller, what is that stuff" you: "well, those are butterfly bitcoin miners" customs1: "what?!? what is bitcoin? is it a weapon?" you: "a decentralized cryptocurr..." customs2: "MONEY LAUNDERING MACHINERY!!! ARREST!" customs1: "What?!? A washing machine for money?" |
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